THEMOVE - Tour de France Stage 16 Preview | OŪTCOMES

Episode Date: July 21, 2025

Johan Bruyneel and Spencer Martin reveal their picks for tomorrow's Stage 16 of the Tour de France. Listen in to see how the duo thinks the action will play out, who will come out on top, and which riders present the best betting value. Use our special link to see where you can bet in your area and claim the best sign-up offers https://nxtbets.com/betoutcomes/ Caldera Lab: Upgrade your routine with Caldera Lab and see the difference for yourself. Go to https://CalderaLab.com/THEMOVE and use THEMOVE at checkout for 20% off your first order

I agree with lines for me also move on to is the hardest climb. I mean, especially because it's the most it's difficult to understand. It's like it's two climbs in one. You know, you have the first nine kilometers that are really, really, really steep in the forest, right? Yeah, in the forest. And then you come to Charlotte and then it's open and it's still hard. at an autumn and it's open and it's still hot. Hi, I'm Spencer Martin along with Johann Berniel and this is Outcomes. Outcomes is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this podcast should be considered financial advice. Please gamble responsibly and if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, seek help from a professional resource. Host and guest may have financial interests in the bets discussed.

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Everybody, welcome back to Outcomes. I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with Johann Berniel. We are predicting stage 16 of the Tour de France, first day out of the second and last rest day, 171 kilometers. It's basically 134 kilometers on rolling terrain

to flat terrain into the hardest climb and pro cycling, Bonbon 2, or that's debatable. Lance Armstrong says it's the hardest. We'll trust his word on this one. 16K long, about almost 9% average, with pitches significantly steeper than that. So very hard day, critical for the GC. I will list off the favorites,

then Johan and I will predict who's gonna win and how it's gonna play out. Before we do that, remember, we have a partner. If you want to bet next bets, go to nxtbetts.com slash bet outcomes. It shows you where you can bet, where you live, walks you through the process, shows you the best bets on each book, sign up bonuses like that $5 on Fandual get $150 free. So if that sounds, if $150 free sounds interesting to you, check out nxtbet.com slash bet outcomes.

Johan, the favorite for the stage. If anyone wants to guess that, if we got your minus two 30, that's wild for a mountain stage, Jonas Vinnegard plus 700, Florian Leopold, woods plus 2,500 time in Arnsman plus 2,800 Lenny Martinez plus 3,300 Felix Gall plus 4,000 Mike woods plus 5,000, Mateo Jorgensen plus 5,000. It goes on and on. We'll call them out if we need to. But Johan, how do you think this is going to play out?

I don't really know. And who do you think is going to win? Well, I think the books are pretty clear. By the way, I agree with Lens. For me also, Mont Ventoux is the hardest climb. I mean, especially because it's the most, it's difficult to understand. It's two climbs in one. You have the first nine kilometers

that are really, really, really steep in the forest. It's like a forest, right? Yeah, in the forest. And then you come to Chalets-Renard and then it's open and it's still hard. But windy. So anyway, Mont Ventoux. And hot somehow.

High, hot, windy, all that. It's the windy mountain, right? Mont Ventoux is, Vent is wind in French. That could be a factor tomorrow. Apparently there's going to be strong winds. Could be headwind from, I mean, before that, it's not really, doesn't really matter the wind because it's very protected. But once you get to Chalets-en-Art, it's all open.

So anyways, Tadej Pogacar is winning this Spencer. It's an easy stage to control for UAE. The day after is a transition stage, so they don't have to worry about that. They come off a rest day. And I think that Pogacar, I mean, something tells me, I don't know if I'm right or not, but something tells me that he has these points where he has been defeated in the past. One of them was on the Ventoux. I mean, he didn't lose the tour there, but he got dropped by Jonas Wengelgart. I mean, he came back afterwards. I think that's one of the things that he wants to win. Call de la Luz is in my opinion also something he wants to win. So, um,

yeah, since it's such a simple stage to control, um, I'm going to go with Tadej Pogacar. Yeah. His, his friend Mu would, would suggest that that's correct. I I'm kind of susceptible to that argument as well. I do think it means a lot. It's always hard to measure this. Like how much does it mean to Tadej Pagache to win a Mon-Mon too?

I have no idea. Does anyone know except for Tadej? Maybe not, but it would seem a silly one to let slip through your fingers, especially with such a simple, straightforward run into it. I mean, really all you a yes to do is what keep the break at five minutes. All you need to do is put, put Neil spotted on the front. That's it.

Because the breakaway would need so much time to stay away. Um, especially on a headwind, we were talking about that where headwind hurts attacking, but it also hurts the breakaway because it means if it's a tailwind, everyone's going fast. So the Delta between a motivated group behind and the breakaway is less than a headwind. If you are hurting, you're going to be stuck in the mud and bagacha is going to be ripping up behind you. I also think tied at bagacha at minus two 30. And if you do take a wild card today, make sure you weight that wild card much lower

than normal because the chances are much less. Also one wrinkle, I was thinking about Johan, Jonathan Milan needs this sprint point. Lance and George think it's as simple as, wait, do you want to just put little track on the front, no breakaway. He'll win that sprint. I don't know if it's going to be that simple, but it's not simple. It's not simple. And you know, the way we see the stage is now this there's not been, I mean, it's always

been one and a half to two hours at 50k per hour. It's not easy to control it. Also, of course, if the break goes 50 and the Peloton goes 49, there's never big gaps and it takes a long time until the breakaway is established. So anyways, yeah, I mean, I would say the same as in, and we said the former podcast, you know, Jonathan Milan needs to go in the break. Something tells me that he's getting a bit tired. And he looked gassed yesterday.

And the pool's going to be in the break. Um, although I do have information that he's not really focusing on the green Jersey. That's not the same as not being interested in the green Jersey. That's a little, but that's not his main objective. He wants to win another stage. But that's not his main objective. He wants to win another stage. So combine those just when the final decision pair is done. Yeah, you're welcome. Matthew, there's your strategy. Yeah.

Well, we're actually going to talk about that after the break. I have some questions for you. But I think that set tells us like if little track is at all interested in controlling this UAE is interested, it's just gonna be hard for a breakaway to get away and win. So I'm going to get sufficient or to get sufficient advantage points. Yeah. Yeah. Or like what if it's a four man break and UAE and little tracks say that's pretty good. Let's lock it down because we know we can catch four riders

and the points behind those four riders are still pretty good at the intermediate sprint. I am however, I am preparing in case of emergency. I don't want to be sitting here tomorrow saying, what were we thinking? I'm going to sprinkle a little bit of money on time and Arendsman plus 2800 is the wild card just in case a break does get away. These starts have been really unpredictable. Like who would have like you turn on the TV yesterday and it's like that's not even recognizable as a bike race.

It's like what is happening right now? Yeah, just in case that continues to happen. I'm good because I think sure there could be a break. There could be anybody in there. There's only like three riders strong enough in this race to stay away and win. And Arnsman is one of them. So I'm picking him at 2,800 just in case. Yeah, that's a good, I mean, yeah, it's covering another scenario. Um, there's not that many riders that, you know, a can go in the break and then B even more, more important can make it to the top of the one too. You know, it's, you got to make it on the break on a flat opening, which is not easy

for a climber. No, but Arnstmann, I like that. I like that. I mean in case, but you know, the Arnstmann will need to have, I don't know, five, six minutes at the bottom and still going to be a stretch. Yeah. The thing about Enios is they are very committed to stage wins. They won stage 14. They missed a move on stage 15. They put their whole team on the front. Keep that gap close enough that they can bridge two guys across. That shows that they'll have

riders in there with arms, been driving that break tomorrow. Who knows if it works? Probably not. But if it's just a small percentage, it's worth it at that price. Yeah, I agree. And do you have a wild card or are you passing on a wild card? I don't have a wild card. The only thing I can, I can see interesting to put some, a little bit of money in is, uh, Florian Lippowitz for the podium is He's positive plus 115. If it's the favorites and it will be probably then Florian Lippowitz in my opinion is the third strongest rider. And especially on a climb like the Mont Ventoux. This is for his type of riding. It's pushing, pushing, pushing. So yeah, Lipowitz

for the podium plus 150 is going to be my wild card. Yeah, it's a good idea. I actually like that because you could win both bets. You could win your stage and Lipowitz could be third. The thing we saw in Superbanié, Pogacar and Vindigard are going to be one, two. And Lipowitz looks like the third strongest rider in this Lippowitz could be third. The thing we saw on Superbanié, Pogacar and Vinogarde are going to be one, two. And Lippowitz looks like the third strongest rider in this race. So stands to reason he would be third tomorrow. I don't hate that pick. I like it. Plus 1.15 Lippowitz. Let's take a quick ad break, Johan, and then we'll get into some head to heads. We've got some really interesting ones and we'll touch again on that green Jersey. But this episode of Outcomes is brought to you

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Gaul plus one 86. Hmm. God looked good the other day. I have to say, um, didn't he ride away from lip wits again at the end? He did, but he wasn't marked and you have to, because they weren't at the front of the race, right? So if they're at the front of the race, what happens, I guess, is the question. Yeah. Yeah. But the goal is coming. Gall is coming. Uh, it's not the same, you know, because he's,

they're not going to let him go anymore now and he's going to have to race with the big guys. Um, I have to go to it. Yeah. I mean, if you thought this was gall that I guess in theory you should do golf for the podium at like plus four 60. I mean, the thing is Lipowitz almost caught gall and gall had a head start because he clipped off early. But this is actually, this is probably one of the more, more interesting battles at the stage, but we'll pinch you in pencil you in for lipwoods tadej pagacha minus 700 versus jonas finnegard plus 390 i might just bet on pagacha for the stage one yeah yeah minus because they're gonna race it

anyway minus 700 okay no we don't want to do that okay next one. Sepkus minus 164 versus Simon Yates plus 118. And both these guys will be in the breakaway. It's difficult. I mean, once they get caught, then if they're in the break, as we saw the other day, which was a bit disappointing, which is why I'm thinking that there's something off with FISMA. Both of those climbers, they're great climbers, they were in the break, they were not able to follow the best climbers of the break. That's already telling. And then when they got back to the group of favorites, there's nothing they could do for Jonas. Maybe give a bottle.

That's it. You know? Yeah. I'm still going to go Sapkus. Sapkus gets to the line in front of him. And also, once they get caught, then they're probably going to go up easy. The thing is Sapkus never really goes up as easy as Simon Yates. So that would be one reason to pick.

Okay. Yeah. That's, that's the except goose. Yeah. So Lenny Martinez, the most tired man in the world, minus one 92 versus Mike Woods plus one 40. I think it makes no sense for Lennie Martinez tomorrow to... Yeah, there's no point to grab. They're not going to be top 10.

Not Lennie or not Mike Woods, unless they're in the break and the break gets far enough ahead. So for Lennie, it doesn't make sense if he still wants to have a go for the pocket dots, he needs to get in breaks where there's mountains before the last climb. Yeah. So the two, the, the two other mountain stages he needs to get on top on the first climate and the second climb in both of those stages. And then he can win. He can win the pocket up.

So what he really needs to do is rest until stage 18 and win stage 18 because that's how someone's going to win it. Yeah, well, you know, if he gets if he gets over those, I mean, there's three climbs in every in every stage, you know, 18 and 19. If he gets first over both of the first climbs and then he's not going to be there for the last time. Can he win it? Maybe because it's double points at Lowe's. So if he gets the two HC climbs before he's probably finishing roughly on

par with Pogacar who's going to win that stage. And so, yeah, he probably still would be in it. Well, I guess the complicated thing is if Pogacar wins this, then he'll have to get in the breakaway on stage 19. Yeah. But there are points, a lot of points on offer before. I mean, logically Lenny should not try tomorrow. It's a terrible stage for him. If that's, if that's his goal. So I'm going to say McWoods.

Okay. All his team has to do is send someone up the road to beat Pogacar for the win and keep him from getting those points. Wouldn't be too hard. You could hear that argument on a few cycling podcasts. Ben Healy plus 118 versus Carlos Rodriguez minus 176. Carlos looked not bad, you know. Carlos is in front of Ben Healy now. And yes, I guess barely.

Yeah. I think we have to go with Ben Healy. He's just, I mean, he's, I think it's important for him and for the team to be top 10. It's also, it's equally important for Carlos. But let's go, let's go Carlos over the weekend. I think he's okay. He's a more pure climber than Manhealy. It's good yesterday.

Yeah. Okay. Oscar only minus 350 versus Primus Roglic plus 240. That's wild that that's the line. Oscar only. All right. Tobias Holland-Johansen minus 350 versus Kevin Valklan plus 240. Johannesson.

Okay. All right. So before we go, Johan, green Jersey, this is fascinating. This listener, Jim Bolinski sent me a model he's created to figure out who's going to win this thing. Currently the standings are Jonathan Jonathan Milan 271 points, Tadej Pogacar plus 253, Matthew Vanderpool plus 225.

And if you go over to FanDuel, the odds are, Milan minus 320, Pogacar plus 500, Matthew Vanderpool plus 500. So Milan's the heavy, heavy favorite, but to me, Milan looks just about cooked. Like I almost think it's going to be difficult for him to win this, but what

do you think? How many points are for a mountain mountain stage? Is it 20? So normally it's 20, tomorrow's 30. 30. And the final stage is 50. Yeah. Because I think Bogacar wins the green Jersey. Okay.

I agree. And I, we took a bath up here. We, we got some information from Gabriel about a fight and we put all our DraftKings money into that and lost of course. So we need, we need this plus 500 to pan out. I think this is how we get back on top. But I, I think so too, Yohan, because I don't think Milan gets intermediate points tomorrow. I don't think he gets them on 17. I think you can easily look at these profiles and say, Hey, it's just 30 K after it starts. All you have to do is get in the breakaway. It's going to be wild on these mountain stages.

What these starts are like. He might not get an intermediate sprint point until Paris, and then he has to win the stage, which I don't know if he can do probably against Bogacar and, and Dundee, although, you know, the last stage is, it's different. I mean, it's not a one day race. Right. So, uh, but still, um, if, different. I mean, it's not a one day race, right? So, uh, but still, um, if, if Matthew is still in the running for the green Jersey on, on the last stage,

he's going to go ballistic on Montmartre and there's no way Milan can follow him. Well, if he's in contention, he's going to get second to Milan at the intermediate sprint. So he's only going to lose three points. Yeah. What's, is Vanderpoel going to get every intermediate sprint point from here on in is my concern. Why? If he's in the break, which he has been doing, we've seen now the last two times he was in the break, he got the points without even contesting them. They just let him take the points. Yeah.

And on stages 18 and 19, it's just the start of the climb. So he would, in theory, you just have to get into, I know I just said this is harder than it sounds, he would just have to get in the breakaway, get those. And then he could drop back and be in the group, head of the rest of the day. Yeah. That's my concern is that he hoovers up these intermediate points but if he doesn't then it's hard for him. I still think Bugattcha is winning. Okay Bugattcha plus 500. All right anything else Johan before we take off? That's it for me

Spencer. All right thank you and we will be back tomorrow to predict that stage. Okay. Alright, bye.