THEMOVE - Tour de France Stage 17 Preview | OŪTCOMES

Episode Date: July 22, 2025

Johan Bruyneel and Spencer Martin reveal their picks for tomorrow's Stage 17 of the Tour de France. Listen in to see how the duo thinks the action will play out, who will come out on top, and which riders present the best betting value. Use our special link to see where you can bet in your area and claim the best sign-up offers https://nxtbets.com/betoutcomes/

Spencer, I cannot see any other outcome than a bunch sprint. There are numerous reasons. There are heavy favorites in terms of sprinting. The two of them are Merlir and Milan. And especially the battle for green is still very tight between Jonathan Milan and Dallepo Lachaar. Tomorrow is a stage where Milan has to score points, both in the intermediate sprint and preferably also in a bunch print,

where if he finishes first or second or third, he scores very valuable points. Otherwise, I think the green jersey is in danger. So I'm predicting a bunch print. Hi, I'm Spencer Martin, along with with Johann Berniel and this is Outcomes. Outcomes is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this podcast should be considered financial advice. Please gamble responsibly and if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, seek help from a professional resource.

Host and guests may have financial interests in the bets discussed. Pass performance does not guarantee future results. Everybody welcome back to Outcomes. I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with Johann Berniel. We are predicting and previewing stage 17 of the Tour de France, 160 kilometer stage with two categorized climbs. The important thing is there's a sprint point and there's a finishing point. So Jonathan Milan and his little Trek

team will be looking to secure the green jersey by holding this thing together. I'll list off the odds then we'll try to preview and predict who will win and how it will play out. But before I do that, if you want to bet and you don't know how to, don't worry about it because we have a partner NextBets, go to nxtbets.com slash bet outcomes. It will show you exactly where to bet, wherever you live. It customizes it to wherever you're browsing from, and it shows you the best bets at each site and the signup bonuses. So if you want to bet $5 at some sites, you get $150, $150 free dollars to go on top of that. So I highly recommend checking that out if you have not already. And even if you have,

there's also new signup bonuses available. But Johan, the winner, I'm just reading from Unibet and we'll call it out when we see better prices like Timmerlea plus 130 on Unibet. He's actually plus 175 on bet 365. He's the favorite. Jonathan Milan at plus 250. Wout Benhart plus 1100. Jordi Maez plus 1400. Arnaud Dele plus 1800. Caden Gros plus 2200. Binyam Ghermaye plus 2500. Jonas Opperhansson plus 3300. Alberto Dianese, if this was the Giro d'Italia, that's the pick, plus 5,000. It goes on and on. We'll call them out when we need to. But Johan, how do you think this plays out,

breakaway or sprint, and who do you think wins? Spencer, I cannot see any other outcome than a bunch sprint. Numerous reasons. There's heavy favorites in terms of sprinting. The two of them are Merlis and Milan. And especially the battle for green is still very tight between Jonathan Milan and Tadej Pogacar.

Tomorrow is a stage where Milan has to score points, both in the intermediate sprint and preferably also in a bunch sprint where if he finishes first or second or third, he scores very valuable points. Otherwise, I think the green jersey is in danger. So I'm predicting a bunch sprint. There's too much interest from several teams still to have a bunch sprint. And I'm going to go for my fellow Belgian, Tim Merlier. Plus 130 is the heavy favorite, but I think that Merlier has the best chances to win this print. Yeah, I actually like that pick a lot, especially plus 175 at 365 down to plus 150, as we're speaking, because Merlier has been chilling.

He's been doing nothing while Jonathan Milan's jumping at the beginning of every stage trying to get in the breakaway. It's not been working out partly because he's so dang tall. Everyone can draft off of them. But Johan, I'm looking at, we have a model that one of our listeners sent over for this green Jersey. And if Pagatra wins the two, two mountain stages, pretty much Merlier has to win tomorrow, or sorry, Milan has to win tomorrow and be placed fourth or higher in the intermediate sprint to win the green Jersey. I think little tracks going to hold this together. And I'm going to go,

I'm not going to overcomplicate this. Jonathan milan he looks a little tired but he's getting to a stage that he likes i cannot believe he's not he's such an underdog because he is so fast. I'm gonna go milan plus two fifty i think i think even is actually plus three hundred now on. on a book that I cannot find, but make sure you check your, your Milan odds. If you're betting on Milan, it is bet 365. He's plus 300 to get that price from Milan is incredible. And I think his team will have help. They will not have to burn themselves to pull this breakaway back. So he will have a lead out, which is the key thing for him. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, you know, listen, Spencer, they're all tired, right? And sprinters are special. So I can give Milan some chance. When a sprinter sees the line, you know, I've seen sprinters who are dead, who still win the sprint. Milan is different. You know,

he's a power sprinter. It's maybe a bit more because we've seen him suffer a little bit the last few stages, but it's out of necessity also, you know, he, he really needs those points. So, um, I think those are the two heavy favorites, Merlier and, and, and Jonathan Milan for the, for the stage. And in theory he will have like, Von Tu is hurting him less than Merlier because he's just a better climber than Merlier. In practice, I don't know if that's actually playing out,

but if you assume that to be true, that is a positive thing. Yeah, but the last week of the tour, man, those rules don't work anymore. It's whoever has something left, they're all so tired. And especially, that's a let's not forget, the speeds have been unbelievably high. It takes a toll. It just depends who is still a bit fresh. That's why I say maybe advantage Merlier because he's not been spending any energy for points or for sprinters points. And he's been focusing on today's

stage on tomorrow's stage. Yeah, with those speed like today, it was so fast going into Von to a smart person probably logged on and live bet valentine perry poncho just thinking this breakaway might not get caught because Neils Pollitt can't be expected to hold a gap to a group going 32 miles an hour. This is the lightest man in this group, so he'll probably win. That person was rewarded probably with quite a bit of money. So congratulations. But if Merlier doesn't win, do you have a wild card pick? My wild card for tomorrow is going to be Walt Van Aert. He's plus 1100. It's true, we haven't seen Walt Van Aert at the same level like we used to see him in his glory days in the Tour de France,

but it's still Walt Van Aert. He's ambitious. He's in pretty good form. And in the last, well, Van Aert is actually a guy that the thing I just said about the sprinters is probably the opposite for Van Aert. He is usually really good in the last week. So I'm going to take him as my wild card, especially because at plus 1100, it's very interesting. I actually found him at plus 1600 on FanDuel in the US. He looked pretty good today.

I mean, we've been talking about how he's not the same wildven art, but he was pulling on that climb after, I believe after Mateo Jorgensen was dropped. So he's fit. He can sprint. I was tempted to pick this myself, but I'm going against my heart and just picking someone. I feel like this is going to be-

And against your son's heart. I know, don't tell, hopefully he doesn't listen to this show. He's the number one wildven this is going to be your son's heart. I know. Don't tell. Hopefully he doesn't listen to the show. He's the number one Walton Octavine. No, your son. Oh man. He's probably talking about him right now. He's probably talking about why didn't Ben Healy not win today? He calls me and asks like how wild's doing in the GC. It's like, we'll need to talk about that. Let's move on from that conversation. But I imagine tomorrow could be a stage if there's going to be any stage where you're like, how did that guy went in the sprint? It's tomorrow. I'm going to go, like when we were Jordy May, who's one on the Champs

Luzes, that's what I'm expecting. So Caden Groves plus 2,500, he is good when everybody else is tired. And as we just said, everyone's going to be pretty tired. I'm going to go Caden Groves. Okay. So let's take a quick break and then we'll do our head to heads, which have been keeping us afloat in this fallow period we're in. All right, we're back, Johan. This is on Fandool in the US. Tadej Pagache minus 186 versus Jonas Vendegaard plus 134. Jonas. Jonas. Jonas. I like that because he's positive.

And I think this is a coin flip. Um, Benyam Girmay minus 164 versus Kayden Groves plus 118. Hmm. Uh, we've, we forgot about Girmay. Yeah. I know. Yeah. I think inain Groves, man. Yeah, Cain Groves. Okay. Tim Merlier, minus 184 versus Jonathan Milan, plus 118.

I'm afraid I have to say Merlier. People are out on Milan Primoz Roglic minus 225 versus Felix Gaul plus 180 158 it's like a weird line is I hope yeah, I'm left over from guys Let me check that is that real? and it's such an odd, that's real, huh? I would frankly just pick gall based on why is it so skewed on a sprint stage?

Yeah. Yeah. That's good. Let's go. Very calm. Primo's doesn't Primo's not going to fight the stress. Why is it was a minus two 25 favorite Oscar on late minus one 18 versus Florian Lipowitz minus 118 so true coin flip. Yeah. Probably Oscar only. Yeah, I would give a better back handler.

It doesn't really mean it's difficult this one, you know, because these guys are not going to sprint this they're going to make sure they're there at the three kilometer sign. If it's three kilometers, I mean, some of the stages are five kilometers. And one stage was the four kilometer rule, I think. I would need to check. But you know, they're just going to go to that point and then make sure that there's no gaps in the last corner. And that's it. You know, they don't really care. So yeah, but let's go for Oscar only. Okay. Oscar only. And what's weird is like, even if you look at the, the website that

doesn't have it listed on the stage and you're like, what, what, why is this secret information before we go, just wanted to check in on the green Jersey yesterday. You picked Pagachar plus 500 in retrospect, a great pick because the other person at plus 500 was Matthew Vanderpool and he dropped out overnight, which has really changed the green Jersey competition. I think if you, I, they don't even have the odds up right now for the points classification. I think it's confusing a lot of the books, but if you got that, I still think that's a pretty good bet. But who do you, from here on in, who's your favorite to win green? I think Pogacar. I think Pogacar too, only if I think there's a good chance he wins on stage 21.

or two only if I think there's a good chance he wins on stage 21. Well, he's going to score points on stage 21 where Milan, there's a decent possibility he doesn't score points. Especially if it's real racing in those last three laps, which there will be. Yeah. So, yeah. Yeah. Milan needs to meet, needs to win tomorrow and then on stage 20, but that's probably going to be a breakaway. Always, always a breakaway. Um,

so yeah, I'm going to go for Pogacar for the green jersey. And we should say like stages 18 and 19. Sure, if you look at the map, the sprint point is right at the beginning of the stage, but it's up. It's like they start on climbs. And if you've ever watched the beginning of a stage like that, it is crazy fast. Like it's hard for sprinters to even stay in the group. So yeah, we'll be interesting to watch those. I don't think he scores any points on those days. Yeah. So he kind of has to win tomorrow.

It's actually going to be fascinating to watch. All right. Well, anything else, Johan on stage 17? Nope. That's it. All right. Thank you. And we will be back to preview the first of our Alpine stages tomorrow. Okay, Spencer, thanks. All right, bye.

["Alpine Stage"]