THEMOVE - Tour de France Stage 18 Preview | OŪTCOMES

Episode Date: July 23, 2025

Johan Bruyneel and Spencer Martin reveal their picks for tomorrow's Stage 18 of the Tour de France. Listen in to see how the duo thinks the action will play out, who will come out on top, and which riders present the best betting value. Use our special link to see where you can bet in your area and claim the best sign-up offers https://nxtbets.com/betoutcomes/

It kind of undermines the Vismith thesis though, because it's like, no, Tadej will crack. But it's like, well, if that's what you think, you cannot set up because then he could be about to crack. Right. But let's not forget, Spencer, this is all theory. Let's not forget that these guys are human. They are great athletes, but they're also tired. And theory is good and you can have a plan and the strategy and we're going to try.

But ultimately, if you put in three attacks and you can't shake it then you're done you know you can't keep going for that. Hi I'm Spencer Martin along with Johann Berniel and this is Outcomes. Outcomes is for informational entertainment purposes only nothing in this podcast should be considered a financial advice please gamble responsibly and if you or someone you know has a gambling problem seek help from a professional professional resource. Host and guests may have financial interests in the bets discussed. Pass performance does not guarantee future results. Everybody, welcome back to Outcomes. I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with Johan Bernil. We are

predicting stage 18 of the Tour de France, 171 kilometer stage through the Alps, three HC mountains, the queen stage of the race. a little bit of a debate on the vertical meters. I see 5,600, the road book says 5,400. We'll only know after they upload their stravas, but I'll list off the odds and then Johan and I will predict who's going to win and how it's going to play out. If you want to bet before you do it, make sure you check out our partner, NextBets, that's nxtbets.com slash bet outcomes. And it shows you where you can it, make sure you check out our partner, NextBets, that's nxtbet.com slash bet outcomes. And it shows you where you can bet wherever you live, as well as the best signup bonuses.

Like I'm looking at DraftKings bet $5, get 150 or bet 365, bet $5, get 150. I should do both of those. Or Caesars bet $1, double your winnings for the next 10 bets. We might need that to dig us out of the hole we fell into with the Holloway fight. But next bet is there to help us. Johan, I'm just going to list them, read them from Unibet because that's what you can see, but I'll call them out if they're better elsewhere. Tadej Pogacar is the favorite at minus 150, Jonas Vendegaard plus 450, Taiman Arnsman plus 1600, Valentin Pereypantra plus 2000, plus 1600, Valentin Pérez-Pantra plus 2000, Ben Healy plus 2500, Carlos Rodriguez plus 2500, Inor Rubio plus 2500, Enric Maas plus 3300, he goes on and on, but we'll call him out when we need to.

Who do you think is going to win this and how's it going to play out? Spencer, I mean, you know, this is these kind of stages based on what we have seen in basically all the stages that are super hard, this is a two-horse race. It's Jonas and Poul Hachar. The way the stage is designed, it's three horse-caddewee climbs. Breakaways will be there. They probably can't make it to the finish because of the toughness of the stage, the difficulty of the stage. So I'm afraid I have to be very unoriginal and say Tadej Pogacar is winning this.

He's the heavy favorite, assuming that Jonas can't shake him, which he hasn't been able to do at any point in this race. I don't see any reason why that would happen tomorrow, especially the way Pogacar is racing right now. He's very calculated and conservative. So Pogacar for the win, minus 150. He's actually apparently minus 125 at Caesars. So I am personally going to check that out myself. 125 at Caesar's. So I am personally going to check that out myself. Mine is over 50 on Unibet right now. And plunging because actually I think he should be priced worse than this.

I'm going to pick them as well. I think Jonas had, I think he does not drop Jonas and buddy wins the stage. I think he's going to outspread them at the finish. Jonas looks very good. Maybe the best climbing performance is we've ever seen from him or he was five minutes faster than he was last time he did one too yesterday. I don't think Pagache can crack them like last year, but I do think he's going to win this stage because he just, Jonas can not outspread him at the finish. I know he did it once. What was that stage 11 last year, but I just do not see a repeat of that. Well, yeah, I mean, you know, and that's why I say, you know,

today is not making the same mistakes. You know, I mean, also he has now he has four minutes 15 advantage. I think at that point last year, he didn't have that much advantage. he didn't have that much advantage. But still, he doesn't need to attack. It's highly unlikely. I think Visma and Jonas are going to try. They have to. You're right. Yesterday, for example, was a very good performance of Jonas. I think he was also publicly saying that this was one of the good performance of Jonas. I think he was also publicly saying that this was one of the best numbers he had. So they have to try, but they can only hope for a weak moment or a weak day, whatever, a Pogacar didn't sleep well or he doesn't feel the usual self. That's their only hope because Tadej only needs to look at one guy and that's Jonas. Yeah, and I agree.

He's in such a strong position because of the lead he has at the moment. Pagacho doesn't have to do anything. He just has to sit back and watch Jonas. It makes it so hard on Jonas. With that in mind, I mean we were looking at this profile, it's gonna be very hard for a breakaway to get any sort of gap because Wiesma has to ride all out on the Madeleine. The second climb, the finish climb, Col de la Lowe's very hard, 26k long and that's just the

categorized section. George said there's about 5k before it that you climb up just to get to the base of the climb. Yeah, well, it's, you know, this side of Col de la L'Eau is basically the usual climb of Courchevel, which is already hard. I think one year Pantani won there, and then another year Valverde won there. But anyway, I remember the year of Pantani and then, you know, he would just, he dropped everybody. He dropped Lantz and Eras and all the big climbers. So it's a hard climb. But then once you get to Courchevel, whether it's Courchevel, I think it's called Courchevel 2000 or something, and then it keeps going up towards Col de Lalo.

So yeah, it's very hard. I think 5,500 meters of elevation over the stage says it all. Yeah, that's not easy. And I just, these months, there's just no other option. They have to make this hard. The breakaway cannot stay away. So my wild card is going to be Jonas Vinnegard plus 450 because it's the only other writer that can beat Tadej Pagache today or tomorrow.

Yeah, I agree. I agree. It's very difficult for a breakaway to make it. I agree. Jonas should be our second option. For a real wild card, Spencer, I'm going to go a little further than that, but not for the win, but Ben Healy plus 700 for the podium. Going off what we saw yesterday, and it's a different stage because it was flat and then just one climb, but Ben Healy was very strong on Mont Ventoux. I could envision a scenario where Bernhili is in the break and he doesn't get caught by many guys except by Jonas and Tadej. And he holds on for third. He is that strong in my opinion. He was really impressive on the Vantoux.

Did the majority of the work, you know, did the majority of the chasing. Then afterwards he attacked, you know, he, I mean, parapetra was on the wheel, couldn't drop him. I think, you know, in stages like this, it's really, you know, the guys who have the most left in the tank. And I think Ben Healy is one of them. So 700 for the podium. I could see that happen. I like it. I like it. I like it a lot. Yeah, I don't think it's, it's not worth trying to guess someone that's going to win because with the pace this hot, I don't think anybody else wins.

Someone has to finish third though. Why not Ben Healy? He almost won on Von Two and tomorrow's stage probably been, it probably suits him better than Von Two because it's, he can, it almost just seems like he doesn't fatigue over these long efforts. So the multiple climbs, bad weather potentially, or at least cold weather, which Ben Healy is quite good in. So I think that that's a good pick. Let's take a quick break and then we'll do some head heads. Alright, Johan. So we're back with the head heads on Fandel in the US. The first one, Ben Healy,

minus 118 versus Carlos Rodriguez minus 118. Ben Healy. Yeah, I'd be concerned if you didn't pick him. Oscar Anley minus 136 versus Felix Gall plus 102. Only. Yeah, I like that. Tadej Pogacar minus 310 versus Jonas Venedegaard plus 220. Normally it's P Bogacar.

You can only see one potential scenario where Bogacar doesn't pass Jonas at the end, which would be if there's a break, gone, and the bonifications are gone. But I don't see that happening. So Bogacar. That would be a very disappointing stage break gone and the bonifications are gone. But I don't see that happening. So pull out your arm. That would be a very disappointing stage. If they're going slow and the breakaway wins.

You never know. They can attack each other, see that this guy can drop the other guy and vice versa. And that's just a stalem you know, they're slowing down so much. I mean, it happened yesterday. Yeah. Yeah. Right. It kind of undermines the Visma thesis though, because it's like, no, Tadej will crack, but it's like, well, if that's what you think you cannot set up because then

he could be about to crack. Right. But let's not forget Spencer. This is all theory. You know, let's not forget that these guys are human. They are great athletes, but they're also tired. And you know, theory is good and you can have a plan and the strategy and we're going to try but you know, ultimately, if you put in tree attacks and you can't shake him, then you're done. You know, you can't

keep going a four time. And then remember what what happened over the tour, Malay in 2023. It's like, I kept pressing. Yeah. And then he just got smoked on the final climb. So yeah, yeah. Yeah. Like, yeah, you're right. It could be in the back of his head. Like maybe I don't want to keep pushing and then somebody else wins. Was that on? Was that on? Was that on? I think it was Kotere. Yeah, it's spelled like Katterouts is what it looks like. Yeah, Kotere. It's called Kotere.

That makes more sense. And next one, Ben O'Connor minus 310 versus Guillaume Martin plus 220. This is really hard. Ben O'Connor is empty. I think we're going to... Where are they in GC? These two guys? Around 20th place probably. They must be... Ben O'Connor is 12th. Holy smokes. Oh, he's 12th. Oh, wow. Wow. He's 35 minutes back. Guillaume is 13th.

Okay. That's why they're okay. Guillaume is the first French writer. Oh no, he is not. He's a German juggler. And Kevin. And VocaLan. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Let's do O'Connor. He's going to keep going. O'Connor. All right. Ben O Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Let's do O'Connor. He's, he's going to keep, I mean, he's going to keep going. O'Connor. All right. Then O'Connor. I mean, he has to, he could be, I guess in theory he could be top 10 kind of, well, I think so. Well, there could be bear attacks.

You never know what's going to happen to two of their guys and Florian Lipowitz minus one 32 versus Primoz Roglic plus 102. Spencer, he cannot be top 10. Sorry, he's eight minutes behind 11th and he's 11 minutes behind 10th place. Oh no, Ben Okorin cannot be top 10. Well, actually Tobias Hollen Johansen, we don't know what exactly is going on with him.

Yeah. And then you just need one other DNF. No, no, you need. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Yeah. In that case, in that case.

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Well, so who was the last head to head? It's actually, it's my favorite one. It's Florin Lipowitz minus 132 versus Primus Roglic plus 102. Big mountain stage, tomorrow. Primos looked better on bond too. Let's not forget

Primos, you know. Still, it's two minutes 40. I'm going to go for Florian. Two minutes 40. He's not getting back two minutes. Anyway, he could be in front of him in the stage, but... He would have to like pace him in, right? Because he's not going to have to wait for him and come in. Yeah, that's, you know... That actually could happen. That's what happened the other day. That would happen on one too. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. And that scenario, let's go for Roglic. Roglic drags Florian Lipitz to the finish.

Yeah. All right, Johan, anything else before we take off? All right, well, I hope we get an exciting stage now. Yeah. I don't worry, we'll get a stalemate. Teaser, listen to the move podcast tomorrow. There's a special segment coming. Very interesting.

The UCI president's coming on to debate. You know, I'm going to debate. Well, thank you. And please tune in to the move tomorrow if you want to see Johan and we'll talk soon. Okay, thanks. Bye.