THEMOVE - Tour de France Stage 19 Preview | OŪTCOMES

Episode Date: July 24, 2025

Johan Bruyneel and Spencer Martin reveal their picks for tomorrow's Stage 19 of the Tour de France. Listen in to see how the duo thinks the action will play out, who will come out on top, and which riders present the best betting value. Use our special link to see where you can bet in your area and claim the best sign-up offers https://nxtbets.com/betoutcomes/

Pallet is at the wheel all the time and it's his right because he's defending his jersey, right? But I think it's kind of a bit easier to take little bits and pieces of time if you can just follow and you just wait until your big rival attacks. It shows you why it's so hard to dig yourself out of a hole too. Yeah. Because if you go down early then what you're describing is playing out. Because if you go down early, then what you're describing is playing out. Yeah, because if they're together, I can't see Jonas winning this. Today, he's not going to let him win. Not if the stage wins up for grabs. Hi, I'm Spencer Martin, along with Johan Berniel, and this is Outcomes.

Outcomes is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this podcast should be considered financial advice. Please gamble responsibly. And if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, seek help from a professional resource. Host and guests may have financial interests in the bets discussed. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Everybody, welcome back to Outcomes. I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with Johann Bernal. We are previewing and predicting stage 19 of the Tour de France, Albertville to La Plonge, only 129 kilometers, multiple high mountain passes, finishing the top, just a short little 20 or 19K long climb at 7.2% average. So probably another tough mountain stage for the GC group.

I will list off the favorites and then we'll, Johan and I will predict who's going to win and how it's going to play out. Before I do that, remember we have a partner, NextBets, go to nxtbets.com slash bet outcomes to see all the best offers, where you live, where you can bet, it walks you through it. It will give you free money. Like if you open an account at a certain book, you might bet $5 and get $150 free dollars. So make sure you check that out as we head in on these last two stages. The favorites for the day though, Tata Pagachar plus 100.

So you double your money if he wins. Jonas Vindegard plus 900. Sepp Kuss plus 1000. Michael Storr plus 1600. Felix Gall plus 1800. Santiago Butrago plus 1800. Adam Yates plus 2000. Valenzen Perri-Ponscha plus 2200.

Ben O'Connor plus 2500. It goes on and on. We'll call him out when we need to. But Joao, how do you think this is going to play out and who do you think is going to win? Difficult one, Spencer. It's a short stage, last mountain stage. So obviously there's going to be a breakaway, but it's going to be all the same guys we've seen already in the last few mountain stages. To not always go with the Leipzig Gatchar, because I know you're going to pick him, I'm going to go with a guy from the breakaway tomorrow and that's going to be Sepp Kuss. I think Sepp Kuss is getting back to a level that we are expecting from him. I think that, normally, tomorrow, Visma

has tried everything already. If I were them, I would go for the stage win instead of trying and then losing time again, which is going to happen. I cannot see any crack, even the tiniest one in the armor of Tadej Pogacar. I can see Sepp Kuss going in the breakaway, especially because it's uphill from the start and that the breakaway of some people of the breakaway remain in front and Sepp Kuss takes the win. He's plus 1000. So I think that's really good opportunity, put some money on him. Yeah.

He's in, he's coming into form. And Pagache, I am going to pick Ted at Pagache. I'm just going to keep picking him because I think he will win because when he can, he tends to win the final mountain stages of these tours. We saw him do it last year. Borderline, unnecessarily. This would also be somewhat unnecessary, but there's nothing left for him to save energy for. I think today he was holding back because tomorrow was a tough mountain stage, but

it's not a guarantee as we saw if the pace dies, he's not going to push the pace. He's going to sit there and mark Jonas Vindegaard. And if Jonas is teammate, Sepp Kuss is up the road, Jonas isn't going to chase him. So there's a very limited number of people physically who can win this. And Sepp Kuss is one of them and he could find himself in a position where he could win. So it's not, it's not a terrible pick. I'm going to go Pagache though, just take the, take the doublier money because man, he looked easy today. And there's no way anyone else in that GC group is going to win because we saw him today. I don't think he got out of the saddle one

time today. And when he accelerated at the end, he's putting time into Vinnegard, which tells me Vinnegard's probably on his last leg here. If you think GC group, go with Bogacar. If you think breakaway, Sepp Kuss is a really good pick for that too. Yeah. I mean, you know, it's true,

Bogacar has the upper hand. I don't think he's that much stronger than Jonas. I mean, he keeps taking little bits of time, but let's not forget that Jonas is either attacking or at the end he is pulling. He's probably not pulling a hundred percent, but he is at the wheel all the time. And it's his right because he's defending his jersey, right? But I think it's kind of a bit easier to take little bits and pieces of time if you can just follow and you just wait until

your big rival attacks. It shows you why it's so hard to dig yourself out of a hole too. Because if you go down early then what you're describing is playing out. Yeah, because if they're together, I can't see Jonas winning this. Dade is not going to let him win. Not if the stage wins up for grabs. No. If you were Jonas, would you want to be gifted the stage? Last year, I think if I remember correctly, he did something similar. He was pulling and at the end Pogacar sprinted and Jonas said, at some point I thought he was going to give me the stage or something.

He didn't say that. I do remember that. Pogacar pulverized him in this sprint. Yeah. No, but you know, it's always nice to win a stage. But you know, Jonas came here for something different, you know, whether he wins a stage or not, that's not going to be, that's not going to make or break his season or his tour de France, right? It's also a contentious relationship currently between, because Pagache, he, apparently he ran into the Visma car.

He didn't have to say anything about it. And then he comes out and says that they break checked them, which is pretty big allegation. So I don't think he's going to be gifting them stages anytime soon. No, no, there's no, listen, I mean, they, I think they respect each other, but they, they don't like each other. They do not like each other. And I mean, at least, I mean, who knows what's going on in terms of conversations within the team, but you can clearly see that they does not like Vismar, which is kind of logical

because at the end of the day, they're making his life difficult, right? And rightfully so, that's what they should do, right? But it's hard. It's difficult to like the team of your biggest rival. It's very difficult. And remember, didn't, like Lance tried to gift the stage to Pantani and it blew up in his face. So.

Well, yeah, I mean, blew up in his face. Lance gifted the stage and then Pantani denied that. He said that he didn't get gifted the stage and then Pantani denied that. He said that he didn't get, he didn't get gifted the stage. But anyways, I told us to give the stage. So and then he got in trouble from Eddie Merck. So listen to Eddie. If it's not Pagache though, I found someone I thought looked pretty good today. Felixul plus 2000. I kind of, I like Gaul. Technically he can't get in the break because he's sitting six line GC, but these time gaps, time gaps are so big. Yeah. And frankly, the people behind are so weak and tired that I don't think

they could stop them. Yeah. And dead. And like, who's to say Gaul could not have attacked where for some reason, if you noticed, Vindigard was chasing down Gaul when he attacked, I don't think he needed to do that. And I think Was that Vingard? Yeah. He was right on Gaul's wheel. And then Pagaccio was right behind him.

Maybe he was trying to keep them from bridging up to Jorgensen. And that raises a lot of weird questions. Why are they, why is Jonas putting his energy into marking breakaway escapees for his teammate that's going for the stage win? But Gaal could get clear like that, just like Mateo did. And where is he and what's he at? So he's sixth, but he's 15 minutes back. No, I mean, he's plus 1800. Oh, plus, I see him on Fandual at plus 2200. Okay.

No, it's plus 2000. Sorry. Plus 2000. So I'm going to go golf for my wildcard. Yeah. Good. Um, since I think that, uh, if it's, if the GC riders get together, it's only Pogacar who can win, um, and I consider the GC riders, it's basically it's Jonas and

Tadej. The others are miles behind, which they're not even a GC threat for both of those, right? But I'm going to go for a rider who will also try to be in the break. He was in it today. He's been in every single mountain stage lately on the Vantoo. He won the stage to, what was it called? I don't, I forgot the name now in the Pyrenees. Oh, what was that? Was it Superbaniers? Yeah. So Taim and Aransman plus 3300.

He still looks like he has it today. He was in it again. And not every day is the same. But now on top of that, Carlos Rodriguez is out of the race. So completely free free cart. So Tame Arnsmann from the breakaway plus 3300 is going to be my second pick. I like it. I mean, I was, we were talking before the show, Arnsman was doing stuff today. Rarely do you see a writer win a stage like this from a breakaway that hasn't done anything yet. And Arnsman, it sounds like we're going back to the well, but I would not write him off if a stage, if a breakaway gets a leash tomorrow,

but let's take a quick break, Johan, and we'll get to our head heads, which you aced today. So people are definitely going to want to, you got everyone right. So people will want to stick around and listen to that. Okay, good. I like to hear that. All right, we're back. And these are on Fandool in the US. Yeah, these were key for us because we took a bath on that Pogacar pick today. The first one is this one you got right yesterday, Tadej Pogacar minus 650 versus Jonas Vindegaard plus 390. This is just in case the breakaway stays away. So why you would bet on it?

Yeah. Yeah. Same. Bogacar. Yeah. There's, there's no gifts happening. No. Ben Healy minus 290 versus Jordan Jigart plus 162.

S290 versus Jordan Jigat plus 162. We haven't seen Ben Healey all day. He was dropped pretty early. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, these guys are tying. Jordan Jigat is, uh, he's still, he's still up there in GC also. Now he is in what? He is in 11th. This is an amazing GC picture. Yeah.

So he'll probably be in the break trying to get in there. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, Ben Healy gave a lot today also. He was, yeah. Who's the favorite of those two? It is Healy. Healy is the favorite.

Minus $290. Okay. Let's go for Jordan Gigatti. Fiel Skal minus $116 versus Florian Lipowitz minus $116. Man, Lipowitz had a hard day today. Yeah. Yes. Felix Galle.

Okay. versus Primos Roglic plus 230. Poof, that's a difficult one. The only thing about Roglic is he was riding in today, looking... Yeah, like not even trying. No, so in Oskar, only it was, it's like he was on a training ride or something, but not even a training ride or something, but not even a training ride, like a go into the store.

Well, the question is, you know, what, what, what would Rob the drug lich do and Lipowitz gets him problems, you know, will he stay with him? Um, today I can kind of understand, especially on the last part, you know, it didn't really make any, I mean, it does nothing if he would have waited for him. It's so steep. Um, I think he might wait for it. I mean, I think Primoz can still, he actually can still be on the podium. I know because- Is that not what he secretly secretly wants to go for?

Probably right. I mean, no one's going to turn down a podium and he probably thinks that Puts is correct. I'll go Roglic. Roglic gets in front of us, strongly. That actually might be the better the day, the more I think about it. Roglic plus 230 to beat Anli. It's pretty interesting. Again, last one. Simon Yates minus 116 versus Sepkous minus 116. Sepkous. Okay. All right.

Anything else, Johan, before we take off? That's it for me. All right. Well, we will talk tomorrow to predict stage 20, but have a great evening and we'll talk soon. Thanks, Spencer. Bye.