THEMOVE - Tour de France Stage 2 Preview | OŪTCOMES

Episode Date: July 5, 2025

Johan Bruyneel and Spencer Martin reveal their picks for tomorrow's Stage 2 of the Tour de France. Listen in to see how the duo thinks the action will play out, who will come out on top, and which riders present the best betting value. Use our special link to see where you can bet in your area and claim the best sign-up offers https://nxtbets.com/betoutcomes/   Hims: Start your free online visit today at https://hims.com/themove for your personalized hair loss treatment options. Results vary. Based on studies of topical and oral minoxidil and finasteride. Prescription products require an online consultation with a healthcare provider who will determine if a prescription is appropriate. 

You rarely see these guys as pinned on a sprint stage as you saw today. And I'd imagine tomorrow's more of the same. That's going to give Pogatra the advantage. But I just it's very hard for me to go against Matthew Vanderpool on a day like today. Pogatra's got bigger fish to fry later in this race. Matthew Vanderpool came four stages just like this. Hi, I'm Spencer Martin along with Johann Bruniel and this is Outcomes. Outcomes is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this podcast should be considered financial advice. Please gamble responsibly and if you or someone you know

has a gambling problem, seek help from a professional resource. Host and guests may have financial interests in the bets discussed. Pass performance does not guarantee future results. Everybody, welcome back to Outcomes. I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with Johann Berniel. We're predicting stage two of the Tour de France. the longest stage of the race, 209 kilometers goes through the hills, the steep hills of Northern France, potentially French Flanders. Johan will tell us if that's true or not later in the show when we get into who's gonna win all this off the odds.

These I'm cherry picking the best odds and I'll try to call out when we select our riders where the best odds are. In the meantime, if you're wondering, where can I bet? I would love to bet, but I just don't know how to. Well, NextBets has partnered with us. So you just have to go to nxtbets.com slash bet outcomes. And you'll be taken to a page that shows you exactly

where to bet, where you live, personalized by where you're browsing from. And it shows you the best signup bonuses for the specific books that you can bet with. So check that out. The link is in the show notes, but the favorite for the stage, it's an uphill finish. So of course, Matthew Vanderpult plus 180, Teddy Pagache second at plus 400, Wout Van Aert at plus 1000, Thibaut Nies at plus 1200, Axel Laurence at plus 2800, Jonathan Milan at plus plus 3,300, Benyam Ghermaie at plus 3,400,

Jasper Philipson at plus 4,000, Jonas Vintergaard at plus 4,500. There's like a random generator came up with these list of riders, Johan. I've never seen a sprint stage and mountain stage so like smashed together, but who do you think's gonna win this thing? Last time we came here, by the way,

it was 2012, Peter Sagan won in an uphill, maybe one of the more impressive finishes, like uphill finishes I've ever seen. He had enough time to sit up and like pretend to be running on his bike, really an iconic win for him. Yeah. Well, as you say, longest stage of the Tour de France, 209 kilometers.

Earlier, I mean like 20, 30 years ago, that was just a normal stage. But anyways, things have changed a lot. They go a lot faster nowadays. This is a hard final. It's a hard stage, actually. Nothing compared to today. Today was flatish.

Tomorrow, not at all the case, especially the final. The last 10 kilometers, there's two climbs of like one kilometer, a steep climb of about 10% and then straight after another, almost a kilometer, 9%. And then there's like about five kilometers to the bottom of the last drag. That's not a KOM, but it's still one kilometer at three and a half, four percent. So I think in the final Spencer, it's going to break up. It's not going to be a bunch of sprinters can't make it tomorrow. You know, this would usually be like, like, like a saga, right? I mean, in the saga of the good days, this was ideal for him. You could say, okay, this is Thibaut Naïs or like back in the days, Philippe Gilbert

would be there or something like that. The way these riders right now ride the GC guys, it's completely different. If you look today, deep in the final, it was actually Jonas Wengegur, who took the initiative and made the split, started the movement to make the split. So I think tomorrow, the strong guys are going to be in front. I think Tadej Pogacar wins this. Jonas is going to be able to follow him. I think a kilometer climb is not long enough to drop him, but he's fast. I could see attacks on that. The third last climb, one kilometer, 10%, Pogacar goes full gas and there's a select little group and he wins it in the sprint. Plus 400 is good odds. I know that there's a bigger favorite who you are going to pick,

but I'm going to pick Tadej Pogacar to win the stage tomorrow. It's a pretty good pick. You're not often going to see Taddy Pogacar plus 400 on a tough uphill finish. So it is potentially like a once in a lifetime opportunity to get these odds. And you're right. It is a tough stage, 2000 meters of climbing, three, four categorized climbs. And it just, it's up and down all day. I mean, you would know this region better than I would because you're from very close to it. It looks brutal. I mean, as, as we saw today, just like nervous, hard racing all the time. Like,

you rarely see these guys as pinned on a sprint stage as you saw today. And I'd imagine tomorrow's more the same. That's going to give Pogatra the advantage, but I'm just, it's very hard for me to go against Matthew Vanderpool on a, on a day like today, Pogatra has got bigger fish to fry later in this race. Matthew Vanderpool came four stages just like this. I, I've put everything left in my draft Kings account on Matthew Vanderpol at plus 180. So hope, hope he wins or else I'll have to, uh,

beg, beg the household to let me put more money in that account, but I'm going to Vanderpol to win this stage. This is what he came here for. Yeah, I think I think he's he's the right favorite. Number one, you know, and especially also, you know, he was in that split in that split this morning today. And he he I mean, a part of winning the stage, he can also take the yellow jersey tomorrow, which is a huge motivation. I don't think Philipson can keep the jersey.

But Van der Poel is there and Van der Poel is probably not going to get dropped. I mean, it would be, they would have to go really, really, really, really super fast and they will on that, on that one kilometer, 10% climb. But Van der Poel can do those efforts. One kilometer is that he can do that. And on top of that, if he gets in trouble, and I think it's only on that climb of one kilometer, 10%, I think it's only Tadej and Jonas who maybe he cannot follow. He's not gonna be far behind and he will make it back

because if Tadej and Jonas go and get away by themselves, they're not gonna collaborate 100%. And Mathieu is not gonna be far enough behind to not make it back. That's what I could envision. So I back you up completely with Mathieu on the pull at 180. That's a I could envision. So I back you up completely with, with Matthew Vanderpool at 180. That's a good choice.

It's a very good point because it's, what we saw that two years ago in the best country where Tere and Jonas get away, they look at each other. And we saw this last year at the tour multiple times where Jonas, it's a very smart strategy. He just will not work with Pogacar because he doesn't want to get dropped. And then also, what's he going to pull Pogacar to the supple finish? Pogacar wins.

Vindigo loses time. Why would you do that? It is kind of funny. If I think about it, why was Jonas working with Pogacar and Vanderpool at stage one of the Dauphiné? Now that I think about that, it's kind of strange. But what did we see there? Vendegaard attacks, Pogacar goes with him and Vanderpoel's with him. And he was not, he was like still building back from his injury then. So I, I think you're right.

I don't think Vanderpoel is going to get dropped. I do think if Vanderpoel or Pogacar does not win this it's because this finish is right for like tactical wrinkles. Let's call them like things could get weird. I don't think a early breakaway is going to stay away. I think the climbs are too hard and the speed will be too fast behind, but if someone attacks from the front group, you know, even like, let's say 30 K to go, there's a 9% climb over a kilometer long,

like stuff could get difficult to control, especially if Jonas and Tade are in the Peloton. They're not going to worry about, let's say, Mateo Jorgensen riding away like getting, yeah, but I mean, Spencer attacks from 30 K to go won't make it. I think, um, because even if, you know, it's so important to be in good position on those two steep climbs in the final,

that the nervousness and the stress of the peloton will already take care of any breakaway. You know, they're not going to get far ahead, even if you attack on one of those earlier climbs with 30k to go. So I can more envision a late attack, like the two last climbs, the steep climbs, they get away, three, four guys, whatever, they look at each other. And then somebody comes from behind because they don't find each other to collaborate. And from five to go, from five to go to one to go, it's downhill and flattish. And that's where a move can go by somebody who's not Jonas and and today and mature. A little bit the same like when the Yates brothers went away in the Basque country in stage one or two, was it?

Was it one stage one? I think it was stage one. We had the Yates. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So, you know, they were not there and they came back and then they sneaked away because the other two were looking at each other. I could see that as a potential alternative for, for somebody else to win. Um, and, and I'm going to pick Kevin Voca.

Kevin Voca is a, he's a good writer. He's in good shape. Um just finished, I think, was it second? I think he finished second or no, third in the French Championships. He was strong. Did a great tour de Swiss. So I could see him be there, you know, probably not going to be right with them on those little climbs, but he can make it back in case there's some hesitation and he could take advantage and take a flyer. And if you have 15, 20 seconds at the bottom of that last climb, you know, one kilometer, what is it? 1.2 kilometer at 3.8% and you can keep it. So Kevin Vucallana, he's plus 8,000. So I think that's a really, really good price for a wild card. I like that price a lot. I mean, the guys, he's red hot right now.

He was second at Tour of Switzerland. Also, do you remember who won stage two of the Tour de France last year? It was Kevin Voelklang. Different type of stage. I think the win would be different, but it's like same thing where he's he's so strong, right? And he's so strong, but he's not going to be marked. And he's he can use that strength to like hold off GC riders

locked in the tactical battle behind. I think that's a very good pick. I'm going to go with someone else though. And I think, I hope I'm not wrong here, but I think people are sleeping on this guy. They're putting dirt on the grave too early. Wout Van Aert plus 1000. Now Wout Van Aert, think about that on this type of stage is plus 1000. I

have to bite on that. I mean, you, you won't see that very often. So, you know, is he sick? We don't know. Did he make the front group today? No, but you know what we saw at the Giro? We saw him look terrible and he was counted out and then he wins stage nine and he out sprints the guy who finishes what second overall on a tough climb. So I'm going to go with Vanhart. I think people are sleeping on him. Plus one. Yeah. You know, I mean, I think, I mean, we don't know, we have no confirmation, but more or less the same happened with Wout, uh,

then just before the Giro, he also reportedly was sick. Uh, now he didn't, he wasn't able to start the Belgian championships because of a stomach bug, apparently. You know, he was at the start, actually, he was in the team hotel. So I mean, it's not like he faked some kind of illness or something. And certain people have said that, you know, it was not serious and that it was kind of fake. Because, you know, in Belgium you have to, it's an obligation for every professional to participate in the Belgian Championships. I didn't know that. Unless you have a, yeah, it is, it is.

Whoa. But you know, in that case, he would never have gone to the team hotel, you know, he went to, he was at the, until he woke up and at breakfast, he went down for breakfast and said, Hey, I'm, I'm not good. And he was at the, until he woke up and at breakfast, he went down for breakfast and said, Hey, I'm not good. Then he went home. So we don't know. We don't know if that's the reason why he was not there today, or if it's just, you know,

a moment of not paying attention, or if it's because he's doesn't want to be fighting for position and really wants to save himself for when it really matters. But he definitely has the qualities to win a stage like tomorrow. And we have seen him opting out of these sprint, these fast sprint stages, at least as a stage contender. You know, Jonas had people with him.

Well, didn't need to be up there. I think I mean, we saw him at the zero, like almost picking stages. Like, I want to try to win this one, not like in the past where he tries to win everything and finishes between second and fifth on every stage of the tour. I think he's strong. I wouldn't rule him out. I like it. But let's take a quick pick plus, plus 1000. That's a, that's, that's a good price for wild. It's, it's wild stuff, but let's take a quick break to hear from our partner and then we will be back and we'll get your head to head pics, Johan.

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if a prescription is appropriate. Restrictions apply. See website for full details and important safety information. All right, back to the show. All right, so we're back. The Johans head to head, everyone loves these. I love them. Can't wait to have them back.

So we didn't do them on stage one because that's feels like what reference point would we even have trying to pick head to head on stage one of the two or friends. And I'm glad we didn't because that stage did not turn out like we thought it would. Both of our guys stuck behind, not in the lead group. But first one, Jonas, this is on FanDuel in the U S is where I'm pulling these from. Jonas Vendegaard minus 172 versus Mateusz Skelmoza plus 176. So if you don't know this, if you bet a hundred dollars on, you would have to bet $172 to win a hundred dollars on Jonas Vingard. You would have to bet a hundred dollars to win 176 on Skelmoza.

So Vingard is the favorite here. Yeah. Tomorrow stage. I mean, you're on us with what I've seen today. He has great legs. Uh, yeah. Even, even at minus what is a minus one 70, uh, minus one 72, not that bad actually. Yeah. Uh, you want us, you're not, he gets in front of Mattias Kalinosa tomorrow. I mean, Mattish, come on. Didn't even make the front group today. Yeah. He had a few, he had a few problems, you and us, you and us gets in front of Mattias. Kelly knows the more I'm in. Mateusz, come on. It's the name. I make the front group today.

Yeah. He had a few, he had a few problems, you know, I think he had two bike changes and, um, was, was kind of, I mean, today was actually a really hard stage. If you look at, you know, how people were suffering in the back and whatever problem you had, they were fighting to get back and they did not recover. I mean, that was, it was almost 47 kilometers average speed, you know, it was really, really hard. Well, I mean, we always joke about how people,

they're wimps now, the riders, cause the stages are shorter, but like this was not, I feel like in the past you would see like, it'd be kind of relaxing on it, you know, there's just people cruising around on these sprint stages. Today was like, it was like a crit that was almost four hours long. Like it was, he went towards the back. You see there's five riders in front. They never got more than two minutes. They got

caught. Then two guys go, they never get more than a minute and that's it. You know? Yeah. Yeah. I mean, first of all, it's the speed physically and also the stress of the nervousness and the peloton takes a lot out of you too. Yeah. So next one, Remko having a poll minus one, one 26 versus Primoz Roglic minus one Oh eight. So the book's taken a cut here. Primoz.

Primoz. I mean, he used to be very good at these types of stages. Matthew Vanderpool minus two Oh five Tadej Pogacar plus 150. Okay. I mean, I chose Pogacar to win, but you know, I kind of agree with you that Matthew Vanderpool is the favorite. This one's kind of interesting though, because well, like what if,

what if Vanderpool just has an issue or doesn't win? He's not going to try, right? He's not going to try to get like fifth, but like Pogacar is going to try to be as high up as possible. Yeah. Yeah. That's yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Let's go. I mean, it's positive. It's Pogacar is positive, no? Yeah. Plus positive. Yeah. Plus 150. It's pretty good price. Yeah. Then let's go for Pogacar. Okay. Oscar only minus 172 Santiago Butrago. Haven't thought about him for a minute. Plus 126.

Oscar only. I feel like, yeah, he's got the hot hand right now. Oscar only. I feel like he's got the hot hand right now. Julian Alaphilippe minus 116, Clemence Champoulzan minus 116. Did we know what happened to Alaphilippe today? Was that just a mechanical issue? No, no, no, no, no. He was dead.

Really bad. Yeah. That looked, it was shocking. I mean, I didn't see, I didn't see any mechanic. I mean, he may have been held up by a crash or something, but I didn't see him crash or anything. It didn't see a bike change. He was just, yeah, just not good. And then we all know he doesn't ride.

He doesn't, he doesn't ride for GC. So, you know, it would be, and he kind of knows he can, I mean, yeah, I mean, the prime, I love Philippe would probably be one of the favorites to win the stage tomorrow, right? mean, yeah. I mean, the prime and Lafali would probably be one of the favorites to win the stage tomorrow. Right. But yeah. I think those times are gone. Although he was in pretty good shape in the tour of Switzerland, but still doesn't have to win though. Just has to be clean.

Now where were shampoo Santa today also dropped. I guess. Yeah. It's a really funny head to head because it's two riders. Shampoo's on was one 47th. He was five and a half minutes behind the winner. Al Philippe was 173rd, six and a half minutes behind. Uh huh. Yeah.

So now I think, I think I, I think I'll have Philippe doesn't even try tomorrow. Neither does Champoussin. So it's, they have no chance. I mean, it's a, most of the, most of the guys won't once they're going to be, what's the kind of comment the final in the last 20 K it's going to be really, really fast.

I love Philippe and, and Champoussin won't, won't fight for position. Then, you know, it's going to split split unavoidably is going to split and they're not going to sprint. So it's a difficult one. I'm going to sit out on this one. Yeah. I mean, that's, that's probably the smart move. Is Shampuzaan going to be working for anybody? I guess would be the question. No, no. So yeah, yeah, that is maybe not a smart idea to bet on that because you're just like betting on a coin flip basically. Who do they have Astana? It would be like Mike

Tunisian or I guess would be the one right now, but it's too hard for Mike Tunisian. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Because the other options are W. Day Ballerini too hard for him. Uh, Harold Tahada. I don't think he's fast enough, right? Sergio Haguita. No, no. So yeah, don't bet on this because it's a coin flip, but you're not getting 50, 50 odds. Like you're, you're taking it. Yeah. Nick, no one's in the positive. So don't do it. Well, thanks, Johan. Anything else? Also, I just wanted to note this, the points jersey, if you ask for Phillips, and after all this talk about all these fast runners,

he's already at plus 150 to win the points jersey. Milan 225, you're my little bit more spec'd, 360, and then it drops off fast. So that picture is already clearing up quite quickly. Yeah. All right. All right, we'll talk tomorrow. And hopefully this goes our way.

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