THEMOVE - Tour de France Stage 20 Preview | OŪTCOMES

Episode Date: July 25, 2025

Johan Bruyneel and Spencer Martin reveal their picks for tomorrow's Stage 20 of the Tour de France. Listen in to see how the duo thinks the action will play out, who will come out on top, and which riders present the best betting value. Use our special link to see where you can bet in your area and claim the best sign-up offers https://nxtbets.com/betoutcomes/

Yeah, I agree. This is definitely a breakaway. I can't see this being a sprint stage at all. Sprinters, I think, first of all, they're super tired. They can't make it over. I mean, this is hard terrain. If you look, Spencer, it's 184 kilometers. It's almost 3,000 meters of elevation. So it's hard. Breakaway for sure. I also can't, it's not a GC day because the climbs are not hard enough to create any separation between the top ten, top five, top ten. So breakaway. And I think also that there's a lot of riders in this peloton who have been waiting for this day now in the last few mountain stages. Hi I'm'm Spencer Martin, along with Johann Bruniel, and this is Outcomes. Outcomes is for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Nothing in this podcast should be considered financial advice. Please gamble responsibly. And if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, seek help from a professional resource. Host and guests may have financial interests and events discussed. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Everybody, welcome back to Outcomes. I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with Johann Bruniel. We are predicting and previewing stage 20 of the Tour de France. 184 kilometers, kind of a long stage. Four categorized climbs. Probably a breakaway day, but I will list off the favorites from oddschecker.com because they give you the best price. And if you want to bet and you don't know how to remember, we have a partner NextBets, just go just go to NXT bets.com slash bet outcomes and they'll

show you where you can bet where you live and the best deals on each book and sign up bonuses. So make sure you check out NXT bets.com slash bet outcomes. But you're on the favorite. This is this is interesting to me. Quinn Simmons plus 1000. Wow. Vinart plus 1200. Victor Camperts plus 1800, Ben Healy plus 2100, Julian Alaphilippe plus 2400, Jonathan Narvaez plus 2400. It goes on and on. We'll call him out when we need to.

But clearly the market thinks this is a breakaway day. What do you think? Yeah, I agree. This is definitely a breakaway. I can't see this being a sprint stage at all. Sprinters, I think, first of all, they're super tired. They can't make it over. I mean, this is hard terrain. If you look, Spencer, it's 184 kilometers, almost 3,000 meters of elevation. So it's hard. Breakaway, for sure. It's not a GC day because the climbs are not hard enough to create any separation between the top 5, top 10.

So, breakaway. And I think also that there's a lot of riders in this peloton who have been waiting for this day, now in the last few mountain stages. So I'm going to go with Walt Van Aert to win the stage for several reasons. First of all, because it's Walt Van Aert, we need to keep considering him as a huge engine. And I think he's in good enough shape. This is definitely not the best Wout Van Aert we've seen compared to other tours. And also because Wismar kind of, it would be nice if they get another stage, you know, when the GC is over, there's nothing else they can do. And I think Wout Van Aert, for example, and also he's going to have help tomorrow.

Of in my opinion, another Belgian on the team with Victor Campenaerts is going to be in the breakaway too. He has, he's in great, great form. I think Walt Van Aert is my, my pick plus 1200. I think that's a really good price for him. Yeah, I like that. He's going to be strong. He got dropped early today. I assume that's because they deduced he couldn't help a lot and he wants to win tomorrow. They might need a stage win after they, I would say biffed today's stage win. The only thing I worry about is Wout Benard is often in favor for these stages. It often seems like how could Wout Benard not win a stage with 3000 meters of climbing breakaway it's locked in. Well, he's going to be pretty closely marked.

There are, I think only a few riders with the raw strength to win this and like freshness in their legs. I think one of them outside of weapon art is Quinn Simmons plus 1000. We saw him pull. Did you see this the other day? I didn't really like seeing it, but it does make me feel good about Simmons for tomorrow

where Van Aert attacked and Simmons just sat on the front, didn't panic and reeled him in by himself after controlling the breakaway and after setting the pace before that. So Quinn Simmons is clearly very fit. I'm gonna pick him at plus 1000, which means if you bet $100 on him, you win $1000 in profit.

Yeah, yeah, good. Yeah, for sure. For sure. Simmons is one of the guys who has shown that he still has power left. You know, it's, it's, it's, it's not like it. People say, yeah, sometimes they get better, right? They don't get better. They just have something left where everybody else. They get less worse. Yeah. You know, that's a good one. He definitely has the physical condition, the power to be in the break. The only thing that I would say, I mean, if, if something to say against it would be, don't show your power too much. Yeah. Don't, Don't make it too obvious that you're strong. Everybody knows it already, but don't let them feel it. That you mean sometimes try to be a bit conservative

and save something, which is something that Quinn still needs the master of it. Yeah. And the fact that, I don't know, I want to see Quinn with a little more race craft. Maybe he's learned though. Maybe he saw Tim Well and sit on, jumping the Moto slipstream and ride away

and got some ideas that he'll deploy tomorrow. But let's take a quick ad break and then on the other side we'll get your wild card for the stage win. And as people know, since you got the wild card right today with Timon Arnsman, they definitely want to stick around to hear that. All right, Johan, we are back.

Who is your wild card? And wild cards are important for this stage because some days we talk about like, heavily weight the favorite and put a little bit on the wild card. Today is like borderline close to 50-50 for your units for your wild card versus your favorite times the person that's less watched will win.

So really important day for the wild card. Who do you think could win that's less less watched will win. So really important day for the wild card. Who do you think could win? That's not the well. Yeah, I mean, one guy I saw the last few days, but in particular today was was impressive to me on which is not his terrain. And that's why I'm going to pick it as my wild card is also because he's priced really well. It's Frank Van Den Broek from Picnic Post NL. He's plus 5,000 and he's a strong rider. He basically helped Roland Bardet win stage one last year in the tour, but today he was there for Oscar only until very, very deep in the final. And in order to do that, you know, he didn't come from a breakaway.

So he was there hanging with the strong guys. In order to be there, you have to be in good form. Yeah, I did notice that as well. Like he was there until pretty late in the stage. Also last year, stage one at the tour, like you have to have such a big engine to do what he did with Bardet. I don't hate that pick plus 5,500. I'm gonna go and it's gonna sound like, oh you guys are just saying the same people, but as we saw today it is

the same people every day. And you know who broke away at the start of this stage? I think maybe just even get the legs warmed up. Jonas Abrahamsen plus 3,400. He's a guy like he just kind of always has the pressure on the pedals, even if it doesn't make complete logical sense. But sometimes you need to be like that to win a stage like tomorrow. So I'm going to go with him at plus 3,400. Good one. Yeah. Um, and it's a terrain for him, you know, I mean, he, uh, he, he, when he goes at the end, man, I mean, don't give him 10,

20 meters where he's gone, um, from the breakaway then. Right the end, man, I mean, don't give him 10, 20 meters where he's gone from the breakaway then, right? And he also has a sprint, which is, which is an advantage for a stage like this. You know, if they go, let's say I can envision that there's going to be a breakaway of like 15, 20 riders. Yeah. And then it will like break itself up. Yeah. Yeah. So if Abraham son is, is ahead with two or three other riders, he can still win in the sprint. Well, the thing about opera handsome that I really like, and I think is important to this tour, like what, what that stage that he won,

I forget the new, the number that goes along with it, but you know, he's only a few seconds in front of the chasing group and then in front of the Peloton. And instead of being discouraged, he just like keeps on it, but it means that he stays out of a lot of the muck and it makes it a simpler race for him. Like I was really impressed with that. And I think tomorrow will be one in a similar fashion where someone's going to get a tiny gap and hold it all the way to the finish line. And there'll be a bunch of stuff going on behind, stuff you don't want to be involved with going on behind that will keep whoever stuck back there from winning. Also, another thing, Spencer, isn't it going to rain

tomorrow? Yeah, rainy. So that's obviously also a factor to take into account. But I think that our picks deal well with those circumstances. Quinn Simmons, Walt Von Aert, Abrahamson, Vandenbrueck. Yes, and I don't know, like maybe this is not true, but it does feel like, I feel like when it's rainy or bad weather, the Uno X-Riders tend to dress better than everybody else. I don't know if that's because-

I don't know about that. If. I don't know about that. If you pay close attention, they are like, I noticed Tobias Hollen Johansen put like a, he was like in like full thermal gear. This was yesterday after going over one of the climbs. It's like, when did you even have time to put that on? But yeah, they, they tend to bundle up. That might be important tomorrow.

There's no head to heads on FanDuel. I wonder if, I don't know if it's too early or if it's just such a high variant stage that no book wants to do that. But Johan, before we, I assume King of the Mountains is locked up. Tere Pagache is minus 30,000. So you'd have to bet $30,000 to win 100.

Maybe don't do that. Points. Yeah, how many points are even available tomorrow? Third and fourth categories. Okay, there's a second category. I think the only person that could overtake him is Jonas. Okay, no, not gonna happen. So that might not happen.

Unless we see a line to line breakaway, Jonas van der Garde, he wins or no, let's say he gets away, he gifts it to Wout Van Aert, but then he loses, he, let's say he gets away. He gifts it to Wout Van Aert, but then he loses. He actually doesn't get the Jersey by two seconds and the gift costs on the Jersey. That could happen. We can't rule that out.

But do you want to pick one more wild card in lieu of a head to head? Because tomorrow is a super high variant stage. Is there anyone else that you think could win this stage? Pick the confidence. It's a surprise. That actually, I actually liked that a lot. was a super high variant stage. Is there anyone else that you think could win this stage? Victor Kavanagh. That actually, I actually like that a lot. He's plus 1800. I'm going to put that down. This is the stage that he would win. He's been crazy strong at this race as well. Been very strong, yeah.

Yeah. And tomorrow, presumably, he'll be up in the break with wow so I would bet on both of those views my writers it's not a bad idea well you'll have anything else on tomorrow's stage no that's it all right and we will be back tomorrow for our last episode of this tour de France we can believe it okay thanks Spencer all right bye Alright, bye.