THEMOVE - Tour de France Stage 3 Preview | OŪTCOMES

Episode Date: July 6, 2025

Johan Bruyneel and Spencer Martin reveal their picks for tomorrow's Stage 3 of the Tour de France. Listen in to see how the duo thinks the action will play out, who will come out on top, and which riders present the best betting value. Use our special link to see where you can bet in your area and claim the best sign-up offers https://nxtbets.com/betoutcomes/  

The team is on an incredible high two out of two. So I think tomorrow we're going to see a three out of three for Alpecin de Koenig with Jasper Filsen winning again. Hi, I'm Spencer Martin, along with Johan Berniel and this is Outcomes. Outcomes is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this podcast should be considered financial advice. Please gamble responsibly and if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, seek help from a professional resource. Host and guest may have financial interests in the bets discussed. Passed performance does not guarantee future results. Everybody welcome back to Outcomes. I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with Johan Bruniel. We are

predicting stage three of the Tour de France, 178 kilometers into Dunkirk from a city that's more inland. I'll let Johan say the pronunciation later in the stage. Simple, straightforward stage at least on paper. Flat winds its way up to the coast. There's one categorized climb about 30 kilometers from the finish of the Mount Kossel, which they've already done from a different side on stage one where the spectacular KOM crash happened. But I'll list off the odds and we'll get Johan's take on who's going to win. Quickly before we get into that though, remember next bets is our odds making and I guess referral sponsor. So if you're wondering, how do I bet?

I'd love to bet. This sounds so interesting, but I don't know where I can bet where I live. Well, go to nxtbets.com slash bet outcomes. Link is in the show notes. It will show exactly where you can bet, what books you can use, where you live, and it redirects you to the best, most lucrative sign up bonuses if you do not already have an account. So remember to check that out in the show notes next NXT bets dot com slash bet outcomes. 225 yes sir. You have spread. You has heard Phillips and plus 335

William, Jeremiah plus 1600 Jordy Mayo's plus 1800 Soren walking scold plus 3200 Scored to wear and scope well wear and scope. I was good doesn't win If he gets on his streak, we're in trouble Dylan grown of Egan plus 3,400 Matthew Vanderpool plus 4,600 Danny van Poppel plus 4,600 He goes on and on but we will call them out when we need to Matthew Vanderpool plus 4,600, Danny Van Poppel plus 4,600. It goes on and on, but we will call them out when we need to. But Johan, who do you think is gonna win this stage

and how do you think it's gonna play out? Yeah, well, so it starts from Valencienne to Dunkirk. So I think it's a typical sprint stage, Spencer. Nothing compared to yesterday's stage. That was a sprint, but not a real bunch sprint. I think this is different. Windy, but apparently the wind is not gonna be too big of a factor in the final

since it's mostly coming from the front. I'm gonna go for Jasper Philipsen, especially at 3.35. I think it's interesting. He comes in with great confidence. The team is on an incredible high, two out of two. So I think tomorrow we're going to see a three out of three for Alpecin de Koening with Jasper Filsmann winning again. He has the best lead out train. They're super confident and they're going to want to win.

They're going to want to take opportunity of the big high they're on right now. Yeah, it's hard to disagree with that. I'm actually surprised he's as low as he is. This is the continuation of the theme where he's always kind of underestimated in these big bunch sprints. It seems to do well. He's plus 320. The odds are moving at Caesars plus 310 at FanDuel.

The thing about Phillipson is I believe, Johan, every sprint in every Grand Tour stage so far has been won by the rider that launched first off a lead out that was in front. Well, who would be capable of being on the front to launch first? It would be Phillipson because his Alpecin Deconic team is so strong. So that would be the case for him. However, I'm looking at Tim Merlier, 185. We're still early in the grand tour. The guy's like probably the best early grand tour sprinter even though he missed out on stage one. Didn't get a chance. I think actually he's been forgotten about even though he's the favorite, but I'm going to go with him plus 185 at FanDuel just because I think he's so incredibly fast. This stage is probably the one that would

help him or give him like the biggest advantage that we'll have at this race because it is so flat relative to the rest of the sprint stages. The headwind, I don't know, does that help him hurt him? That means you have to launch later, right? It helps him. I think it helps him because, you know, as we all know, Tim Merlier on Sudar Quickstep doesn't have a full sprint train because they basically they took him on but you know with the only with the condition that he could only bring one guy he has his usual guy Bert van Laatberge with him but it's a team built for Remco so

I think that's a disadvantage but Merlier is a master in surfing other trains. If you don't have your own train and it's headwind, it could be a bit more complicated because the speed is not as high. Because if Merlier locks himself onto the train of Alpecin and it's tailwind or not headwind at least, the speed is higher and they can't come from all different sides. If it's a bit more headwind, I mean it's to be seen what the wind is like once you get into Dunkirk, right in the city. It's completely different than when you're in the open field. So if it's in the city it's pretty straight I saw, open field. So if it's in the city, it's, it's pretty straight. I saw not not not very technical the last one and a half

kilometers. So yeah, I mean, if if it's protected from the buildings, it's different, right? And then you cannot even possibly cannot even feel the headwind. But but yeah, I agree. I mean, he's super fast. He would deserve to win a stage. He's been the fastest sprinter by far. If you look at that, at this year's season, you know, European champion, he has a point to prove, I think, in his mind, probably say, okay, I was the big favorite on stage one, I didn't win.

Now I need to, I could see him come over to finish tomorrow. And then, you know, doing this and he just moved to one 90 at Caesar's. So I'm hitting that the one 90, I guess in theory, I guess it would be easier to come around at rider like Phillips and with a headwind because yeah, if it's a tailwind or no wind, they're going so fast. You can't get around them. Yeah. It's over before it's even started. Essentially. Yeah. I, I, I repeat, you know,

it's to be seen what the wind is like in that last kilometer, which is nothing compared to the wind direction in the, you know, in generally in the stage. Yeah. So if it's not as we saw on stage one, things go sideways. Dunkirk is a big city. So there's a lot of buildings. So the wind can actually not be a factor. It's possible. It's not a factor. Oh, or it's a huge factor because it's, it's being shuttled down the, down the, uh,

good down the buildings. Like when I was in the city of London just last week and I felt like I was, I, everything I had was going to blow away even though it wasn't that busy, but stuff goes sideways. Johan, we don't know exactly what's going to happen. Let's say Phillipson doesn't win. Who would be your wild card to win? Yeah, I think my alternative is going to be Jonathan Milan. Um, you know, he hasn't been showing, I mean, yesterday he was called out. Also today he crashed.

Something tells me that he must be in really, really good shape because Little Trek were actually working for him today, which was a surprise because they were confident that he would make it in the final group and sprint for the victory. That's what the dynamics within Little Trek were telling me, that they were protecting him and they were trying to bring him to the victory. That's what the dynamics within the track were telling me, that they were protecting him and they were trying to bring him to the front. So knowing that, they must know that he has good legs. And yeah, I mean, Jonathan Milán, whenever there's a sprint, he needs to be one of the guys. So plus 250 is going to be more alternative in case Jasper

Phillipson doesn't win. Yeah. The rare inverted wild card, better odds than your first pick. Yeah. Milan, I mean, if he's going to win one, this is the one. So that would be the case for him. I do worry a little bit about, just feels like a lot is going wrong with him or he's letting it get into his head because we saw him explode at the intermediate sprint because Biddyam Grimaille had the gall, I guess, to try to hold his position on his teammates wheel. Milan didn't like that.

But on that note, Grimaille looked good in that intermediate sprint, I thought. He's looked good all race. Like the guy is like Phillipson. He doesn't kind of run under the radar right before the tour and then seems to rise to the occasion. I'm going to go, Gramey is a wild card plus 1600 for the former green Jersey winner, potential green Jersey winner this year. That's a very good price for a rider of that quality.

So I'm going to plus 1600 at FanDuel for Beniam Gramey is my wild card. That's a good wild card. Really good. I mean today also they were... I mean I don't think he could have made it but he didn't have a chance because he had a mechanical but about 20k to go or something so there's no... he didn't even have a chance. You know without the two little climbs I I mean, the finish was probably within his possibilities. It's no three and a half, four percent. But yeah, with the two steep climbs, I don't think he had any chance, but he did in his favor, in his defense, he did have a mechanical. Yeah. I mean, that was also ridiculously hard. That final, the first sprinter. Spencer, I don't think it's not that it's hard.

It's just that these guys are going crazy fast. Yeah. That's what I mean. Obviously it's not like, yeah, if you were walking up the climb, it wouldn't be that hard, but if you have to go 800 Watts for a minute to hold the wheel. Yeah. That's going to be tough. That's going to make it hard. Um, but let's take a quick, quick break. Then we'll get to the head to heads. Um, we'll do Johan's daily head toto-head rundown, which people love. We'll be right back.

So Johan, our head-to-heads today that I've selected from FanDuel in the US. First one, Jasper Philipson, minus 350 versus the guy we were just talking about, Binyam Ghermay, plus 240. Who do you think is going to win? I think Phil Phillipson. And the beauty of the head is, let's say Milan wins, and then you've bet on Phillipson, you still win this bet, even though he didn't win the stage.

It's like a little bit of insurance. And then also, it occurred to me, I should explain, someone reached out, what is plus 100? Plus 100 means you double your money. It's like a 50% implied probability. So if it's a plus 100, basically a coin flip minus 350 means you would have to bet $350 to make 100. But yeah, Phillipson is a very good sprinter. So that wouldn't seem crazy that he wouldn't win that stage or win against Grimai. The next one, Tadej Pogacar, minus one ninety two versus Jonas Vanguard, plus one forty.

The this is once interesting because these guys will not be contesting the stage. You just have to guess who's going to finish in front of the other in the peloton. I'm going to go for Jonas. I think today is riding conservatively in the first stages once he's going to see once he's going to see that everything's fine, that it's a bunch print, that it's all packed up, he's not gonna fight for any positions anymore. Jonas, on the contrary, looks very eager, a little bit nervous, maybe a little bit more nervous. So he's gonna be around today. That's gonna be the whole mean, he's going to be around today. I mean, that's going to be the whole, the whole three weeks. It's like, you want to, I was around today, but when he's, when he sees that he can pass him, he's going to pass him.

So yeah, I agree. I mean, also on these, if you think they're going to be roughly the same and then one is positive, like plus one 40, you should go with him. These must seems very dialed in. That would be my takeaway from the first two stages. Also another thing Spencer, too, we're noting for especially also for these head to heads and like tomorrow's a flat stage

and I've read somewhere that there's, I think there's five stages in this tour that they don't apply the three kilometer rule with the five kilometer rule. Those are the, there's five stages, it's the five kilometer rule. Then there's one stage, it's a four kilometer rule. And then there's two others, then all the others are the three kilometer rule except the uphill finishes.

Interesting. So five kilometer rule tomorrow. So tomorrow's five kilometer rule, meaning that whatever happens in the last five kilometers, not getting dropped, but if you have a flat or there's a crash and you're behind the crash, you get the same time as the group you were in. So it's going to be a big, big, weak fight to keep all the GC teams to put their guy within five kilometers. And then basically it's okay. Then their job is done, basically. It's going to be thrilling to watch two guys in 100th position.

That'll make you feel alive. Put some money on them and see who rolls over the line slowly in front of the other one. This one's super interesting. Matthew Vanderpool versus Stein Friedheim on Uno X. And it's minus 11 16 versus minus one 16. So even odds, I guess the thought is they're both lead outriders. Yeah.

I'm going to guess so. Yeah. It's who sits up harder basically is the question here. And you know where they finished on stage one? Do you want to guess? 28th and 29th. Oh, okay. Vanderpool was ahead of him.

Yeah. Um, Matthew. I think so too. I think tomorrow is going to be in Nava. I'm just thinking about this, Spencer. Tomorrow is going to be interesting to see the yellow jersey leading out the sprint. Of a guy that he took the yellow jersey from on his own team. It's wild stuff. Yeah. So the last one, Timmerleer minus one 26 versus Jonathan Milan minus one.

Oh wait. So they're both negatives. Yeah, they're both negative. The book has taken a nice little cut here. Yeah. Yeah, the book negative. The book is taking a nice little cut here. Yeah. I'm going to go with Milan. You know why? Because, and I'm just thinking, you know, it's going to be hectic. It's going to be all mixed together. Merlir, when Merlir sees that he doesn't have a chance, he's not going for the green

jersey. Yeah, exactly. And Milan is. So Milan will, even if he can't win, he will want to be as close as possible. Whereas Merlir is winning or nothing. So it's a very good point. And it actually shows why this is maybe one of the best bets we've talked about because Milan is the underdog and has more incentive to finish in front

of Tim earlier. We saw the guy pop a top like sprinting for fifth and an intermediate sprint today so that shows you he cares deeply about these points. Yeah, he does. Well, anything else, Johan, before we take off? No, that's it. Let's hope we have a real straightforward sprint stage tomorrow. I think, I think we need that. Yeah, just a nice, all the sprinters are, you know, up there and they can sprint amongst each other. It'll be fun. I can't wait. Okay, thanks Spencer. Well, we'll be back tomorrow to preview Stage 4.