THEMOVE - Tour de France Stage 4 Preview | OŪTCOMES

Episode Date: July 7, 2025

Johan Bruyneel and Spencer Martin reveal their picks for tomorrow's Stage 4 of the Tour de France. Listen in to see how the duo thinks the action will play out, who will come out on top, and which riders present the best betting value. Use our special link to see where you can bet in your area and claim the best sign-up offers https://nxtbets.com/betoutcomes/ Cook Unity: Crush your health goals with mouthwatering, chef-crafted meals delivered straight to your door. Go to https://cookunity.com/THEMOVE or enter code THEMOVE before checkout for 50% off your first week That’s 50% off your first week by using code THEMOVE or going to https://cookunity.com/THEMOVE

Good memory for me. The Moro stage starts in Amiens. That's where I won my first to the front stage 32 years ago. Holy shit. So yeah, it was a stage coming into Amiens, not the France. And yeah, I won solo. And it was, back then, it was the fastest stage in to the France history, 49.5 kilometers per hour.

It's been beaten by by by now, multiple times, but anyways, I thought that was worth mentioning. Hi, I'm Spencer Martin, along with Johann Bernil, and this is Outcomes. Outcomes is for informational entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this podcast should be considered financial advice. Please gamble responsibly. And if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, seek help from a professional resource. Host and guest may have financial interests in the bets discussed.

Pass performance does not guarantee future results. Everybody welcome back to Outcomes. I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with Johann Bernal. We are predicting stage four of the Tour de France. 174 really tricky stage, lumpy, especially towards the end. Multiple categorized climbs. It's going to be tough to predict, but we have Johann here with us who will guide us through all this stuff, the odds, and then we'll get Johann's take on who's going to win and how it's going to be tough to predict, but we have Johan here with us who will guide us through all this off the odds and then we'll get Johan's take on who's going to win and how it's going to play out. Matthew Vanderpelt is the favorite plus 125, Tadej Pogacar plus 333, Jonas Vennegard plus 1300, Roman Gregoire plus 1500, Kevin Valklón plus 1500, Wout Van Aert plus 2800, Julian Alaphilippe

plus 3600, Binyam Ghermay plus 4000. It goes on and on, but we will call them out when we need to. Johan, how do you think this is going to play out and who do you think is going to win? Yeah, well, first of all, Spencer, before we start getting into the odds, I just want to a little, a little good memory for. The Moro stage starts in Amiens. That's where I won my first to the France stage 32 years ago. Holy shit. So yeah, it was a stage coming into Amiens, North of France. And yeah, I won solo and it was that back then it was the fastest stage into the France history.

Forty nine point five kilometers per hour. It's been beaten by by by now, meant multiple times. But anyways, I thought that was worth mentioning. Great memories from that from that day. That's pretty fast, Johan. Well, those bikes, you know, back then, you know, with the bag, you know, the dynamics were not the same. Yeah, it was fun. I mean, it was, the wind was favorable the whole day.

Not very strong, but it was favorable wind and it was lumpy. It was not so flat. But yeah, it's, you know, the first ever Tour de France stage, our cyclist wins. You know, it was something, a dream that was something nice. I had been close a few times, like twice, three times second. It was like, I need to win a stage in the tour to be, you know, like I knew I was never going to win the tour. So winning a stage was the maximum I could attain. And that was, that was really, really nice. So North of France tomorrow. This stage, Spencer, I think it's, it's extremely similar to yesterday's stage, to the stage that Mathieu van der Poel won.

Same kind of finale, three climbs at the end. The last climb is extremely steep. It's only 800 meters, but very steep, 11% with some parts at 15%. I expect the same scenario. I don't think it's going to be a breakaway. The GC guys will want to be in front. Everybody will want to be in front. And so as we said already, many times, even if there's a break, the speed of the peloton, the stress in the peloton goes up and up and up, the speed goes up and without even chasing the peloton has no chance.

The breakaway has no chance. I expect the same kind of scenario, really, really nervous running to that first climb. There's four climbs in the final. Yeah. Five climbs. Yeah. Five climbs. Yeah. Well, four really close to the finish. And then if you zoom out to like the last 30 K, there's five. Okay. Okay. But you know, two fourth categories, two third categories, and then the final, the finals, uh, uphill, I mean, it's not a climb,

but it's, it's, you know, 500 meters at 5%. Um, same thing as, I mean. I'm going to pick the same guy, Mathieu van der Poel. I think he's on top of that. He's in yellow. He's now really the only protected guy. They don't have to think about Philipsen. Unfortunately, Philipsen crashed out today. Hurt himself pretty bad. I just spoke with one of the staff members there and his broken collarbone and several broken ribs. So that was a really hard crash, really bad. It puts van der Poel now in an ideal position. And this final is ideal for him. So I'm going to go for Matthieu van der Poel, 125 plus 125. Yeah, hard to argue with that. And if you're unfamiliar with what the heck we're talking about, plus 125 means if you bet $100 on him, you will make $125 in profit.

And so they'll give you 225 back. Yeah, Johan, it's tough. I'm in a tough position. I even thought about just doubling up on your pick and just piggybacking on it. But stuff happens. Like we saw today, Jasper Philipsen, that looked like a slam dunk pick. He crashes mid-stage. He's down.

Things can happen. But I do think there's probably one rider. I rewatched yesterday's finish like 15 times. And it's clear there's one rider in this race who can even potentially match Vanderpool on a finish like this. It's Tadej Pogacar and he's cheaper. He's a better price. He's plus 335.

I'm going to go with him. I mean just to give people perspective. So if you bet on him, you're going to make you're going to make for you're going to get 433 handed right back to you. I'm going to bet on Pogacar with the note that yes, Matthew Vanderpool probably will win. I do not think it's going to be breakaway. I think everyone's too keyed up.

Like you said, everyone wants to be at the front. If you're a GC contender, you've got to be at the front. These are hard climbs, like 1.3K at 9.2%, 1.8K at 4.8%, and then a K at 9.1% right before the finish. Like these, as we saw today, what we, or yesterday we saw the GC contenders had to be like in the top seven or else they were going to get tailed off in those groups going over the summit.

Take into account Spencer, the narrow roads in that part of France. Yes. So it's extremely important to be in front. So it's super fast. I can perfectly see again, like that six, seven, eight riders maximum being on that last climb and then some riders will come back but breakaway has, I mean a breakaway, an early breakaway. If somebody can break away from that select group that's different

in the final right? Yeah I mean the finish, it's technical looks like a kid, like a little child drew it. You know, it's just scribbly lines on the map. So, and what you said is if people think that they can break away late in win, they'll be less likely to go all in in the early breakaway, which makes it less likely in early breakaway wins. So, yeah, I don't think it's early break. No. And but as we saw yesterday, two days ago, yesterday, what day is it? I have no idea. Weird stuff can happen. Things can get tactical in the finish here. Kevin Vauquan almost got away. He just had an anchor on

his wheel in the, in the form of Matteo Jorgensen, Jorgensen, Jorgensen. But if this could happen again, so there is a chance someone else wins. If it is, who is it? Yeah, I picked Kevin Boccalas, my wild card, and I'm going to pick him again. 1600. So he came down. I mean, I think when I picked him was 8000 two days ago. Now he's 1600m because he did try three times to take a flyer. It almost worked. He had Jorgensen on his wheel, but it's clear that he's in great shape. And so if you look at the profile, they're getting over that last climb, that 800m at 11%. He's probably not going to be with the first three, four guys, but he will be right behind. There's a little plateau. There, five, six guys will come back. And then that's

where Voelkelijn can be the surprise. And tomorrow's final stretch is probably easier to stay away final stretch is probably easier to stay away than yesterday's. If you have 10 seconds, you can make it to the finish. So Voelklon at plus 1600 is going to be my wild card. Yeah, I like that pick a lot. But there's a there I'm going to pick Kevin Voelklon light because this man has been a shadowing Kevin around lately. Like Kevin Voelklon finished third at the French national championships.

Well, who was second? Roman Gregoire, who finished right up there in the top with Kevin Voelklon the other day, Roman Gregoire. He, I found him at plus 1500 on FanDuel. So he's going to be my wild card. This is like, in my mind, it's not impossible to imagine like things get tactical and then the French get their win. Roman Grigoir wins or Kevin Valclon.

This is ripe for this type of late blight from a writer like this. Yeah, for sure. Grigoir is in great form. He won stage one in the Tour of Switzerland. Was for quite a long time in the lead also. And yeah, he was up there in the French championships, very hard, also an uphill, I mean, a similar kind of finish. Yeah.

And he was trying also yesterday, he had this whole team at his service and he was, what was he, fifth or sixth or something? And I mean, he was definitely going for it. I think it was. Yeah, he was might've been even higher than that. I think he was fourth, fourth, fourth. Okay. Yeah. But so I personally think that they were and vocal and have a better

chance trying to anticipate and the lot, the sprint and a bit of surprise attack after that last climb. That's how I see them winning. Yeah, Vanderpoel, I mean, we saw he did win. It was impressive on stage two, but he was like leading himself out basically. Like, that's not unbeatable because he has to control attacks. Especially Spencer because tomorrow is different. The last 300 meters are flat. Where was it?

I forgot the name now. Where Vondelpool won, it kept going up until the finish. Once you were going, the speed was slower, drafting was less of an issue. But if it's 300 meters flat and you go too early after that last 500 meters at 5%, then you could potentially be beaten. And I think that's how Wunderpool might get beaten because everybody's going to be looking at him. He's going to be alone. There's not going to be anybody with him from his teammates. So yeah, I mean, and he will have to take the responsibility again, because he's the big favorite. And on top of that,

he's in yellow. Well, you heard it. Let's hope no one listens to this, because then they'll know how to beat Vanderpool. You won't win your pick. So don't release the show. But let's take a quick ad break. And then I want to get your, your take on a head to head and then also a quick drop in on the green Jersey classification. Everybody, this episode is brought to you by Cook Unity. Cook Unity has all-star chefs craft meals each week with local in-season ingredients that are high in protein, fiber and unsaturated fats. All you have to do is go on the website, you pick out the meals you want delivered and

boom every week delivered right to your door. You have exactly what you want. They're sent fresh, not frozen and delivered directly to you. You can have the chicken and dumplings, the sun-dried tomatoes. Personally, I'm loving the Mission Burritos and Mom's Sunday Sauce Rigatoni. I'm up in Aspen for the move in July and outside of my family and children, the thing I'm missing the most are my Cook Unity meals. I don't know if I will make it for this month without my Cook Unity. Their all-star chefs include Food Network alums, James Beard award winners and acclaimed restaurateurs balancing flavor and nutrition in small batch meals sent fresh, not frozen. Crush your health goals with mouthwatering chef crafted meals delivered right to you.

Go to cookunity.com slash The Move and enter code or enter code The Move before checking out for 50% off your first week. That's 50% off your first week by using code The move or going to cook unity.com slash the move. Check it out. Now I cannot recommend it enough. It is changed the way I eat and I want everyone to have access to the same thing. All right, back to the episode. All right, you on we'll we're back today. I just I pulled one head to head that I thought was interesting. I don't think you're going to like it, but it's Mateo. You also good job on your Vinogarde over Pagache for today's stage. That was pretty impressive. But this is Mateo, this is on Fandual by the way,

Mateo Shkalmosa minus 140 versus Guillaume Martin plus 106. I know this is really tough. No, this is really tough. I'm gonna say Skjelmo also, because he's better at positioning than good Marta. Well, you wanna hear an odd thing on stage two, Martan 16th and then Skjelmo is a 23rd. Okay. Were they in the first group? But were they in the first group? They were both in the first group.

OK. OK, I still think Skalmo. OK, that would make the most logical sense. And then I just kind of want to check in with you on the points classification. I think the King of the Mountains, like Pogacar, is plus 115. In my mind, it's like, well, we don't really like,

it really is who goes over Lowe's first. Who gets to the top of that? Basically, the Courchevel Summit finish, but what if a breakaway stays away because the GC's already decided, then that person, if they've been working at it, is probably gonna win the KOM jersey. So I think it's too risky at this point

to even speculate on that. But points classification with the Asper Phillipson out probably would have won with the form he had. Milan's dropped to minus 155. And then it's Matthew Vanderpelt plus 350. Biniam Ghermai plus 440. Tadej Pogacar, your pick at plus 600. How do you feel about, Milan was my pick.

I got him at like plus 255. And he's clearly now the favorite to win, at least for the betting markets. Yeah. I'm going to go, I'm going to put, I mean, now that you say that I'm going to put some money on Matthew on the pool. Now that Phillipson is out, he's going to go for green man. He said he wasn't, I think he's going to change his mind. Yeah. Yeah. That's actually pretty interesting. I mean, what's funny is George had a comment in the show today where he was like,

Alpecin doesn't want to burn their matches, but it's like, well, what else are they here to do? Yeah. Other than the first nine days, they have to give everything they can. Yeah. And then if Vanderpool is in a good position, I mean, clearly he has the ability to stay. He can get into breakaways in the mountains and that's a good pick Vanderpool. Yes, 350.

Yeah. All right. And that's only going to drop if he wins tomorrow. So get in now on that if you like Vanderpool to win. Do you have anything else? Johan before we go? No, that's it. All right. thank you.

And we will talk tomorrow to pick the time trap on stage five.