THEMOVE - Tour de France Stage 5 Preview | OŪTCOMES

Episode Date: July 8, 2025

Johan Bruyneel and Spencer Martin reveal their picks for tomorrow's Stage 5 of the Tour de France. Listen in to see how the duo thinks the action will play out, who will come out on top, and which riders present the best betting value. Use our special link to see where you can bet in your area and claim the best sign-up offers https://nxtbets.com/betoutcomes/

Well, first of all, Spencer, before we get into this, congrats, congrats to you because you have three wins in a row. In three wins, at least out of four stages, right? Yeah, three out of four. Hi, I'm Spencer Martin, along with Johann Brunel, and this is Outcomes. Outcomes is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this podcast should be considered financial advice. Please gamble responsibly and if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, seek help

from a professional resource. Host and guests may have financial interest in the bets discussed. Passed performance does not guarantee future results. Everybody, welcome back to Outcomes. I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with Johann Bernal. We're predicting stage five of the Tour de France, a 33 kilometer time trial. Starts and finish in the same place. So we don't have to worry about wind picking up, coming down, but we will break down everything you need to know and get Johann's take on who's going to win all this off the odds. Then we'll get into it. And if you're listening to this and you're what you're saying, wow, I would love

to bet this sounds so fascinating, but I don't know how to do it. Well, don't worry. We have a partner this year for this tour. It's next bets. That's NXT bets.com. And if you go to NXT bets.com slash bet outcomes, it will show you exactly where you can bet, where you live because the rules are different all over the world and even all over each state of the United States. So go to nxtbets.com slash bet outcomes and you'll see where you can bet and they'll give you, they'll redirect you to the best signup bonuses on each of the books that are available in your area. So make sure you check that out before you bet and make sure to bet responsibly.

Remco Ebenpol, the heavy, heavy favorite at minus 380. That's the best price we could find at Fandl. Jonas Vindegaard plus 750. Tadej Pagache plus 1,100. Eduardo Afini plus 2,900. I guess, Johan, you find them at at plus 3300. So go get that price if you can. Wout Van Aert at plus 5000, Matteo Jorgensen plus 5500. I don't even think, and Primoz Roglic, Olympic time trial champion just a few years ago, plus 5500. And I don't even think we need to keep reading. Johan, I assume we know how this is going to play out. No breakaway, but who is going to win this according to you? Yeah. Well, first of all, Spencer, before we know how this is going to play out. No breakaway, but who is going to win this according to you? Yeah.

Well, first of all, Spencer, before we get into this, congrats to you because you have three wins in a row or three wins at least out of four stages, right? Yeah, three out of four, but thank you for the congrats. But we were just talking before we recorded, we basically coin flipped on stage two, who got Vanderpult, who got Pogacar. And then we flipped it for the last stage. So we have good fortune there, perhaps. Yeah.

It's a team effort. It's a team we do. It's a team we do who got three out of four. Yeah. Yeah. Listen, for tomorrow, I think it's very simple. Remco is going to win the time trial unless he crashes. Unless he crashes. Which is also always, I mean, it doesn't look like it's super technical. But yeah, he's the best time trialist in the

world. Several years in a row. On top of that, the biggest challenger, Pippo Ghana, is out of the race on stage one already. So yeah, I can't see anybody beating Remco even in the pool tomorrow. 33 kilometers for specialists, not super difficult, not super technical. It's all about power and aerodynamics. And that's what Remco has. So minus 380. It's not great, but still he's winning this tomorrow. Yeah, I mean, just to go back to the most recent data point, we have Criterium du Dauphiné stage four, 17 kilometers. So actually not that time trial was not as good for him as the one we're going to see. And he won by 21 seconds over Jonas Finnegan. Yeah. It's, it's hard to argue with that to the point. And the implied probability here is 79%.

So if you think he has a greater than 79% chance of winning, you should take him at minus three 80. I do. So we're, it's our first double up this tour. I'm also going, rimco, having a poll. We're not going to send people on a wild goose chase, but that does mean we kind of have an interesting situation with our wild cards. Cause you have writers like Tadej Pogacar

looming at plus 1100. Think about that. Like Tadej Pogacar who won the Tour de France at 21 years old in a time trial is plus 1100 in this time trial. That's how good evinapole is. I guess we should note that due to some creative, I mean, UAE is really on top of it this year.

I wonder if they knew that even if Pogacar won today that he wouldn't take yellow if Interpol finished second. So Pogacar gets to race in his fast skin suit. No, he's not. No, no, he's racing in polka dots. Oh no, he's in the polka dot because he was too good on the final few climbs. Yeah, that's the, yeah. You know, we debated about this yesterday, right? And also with Bradley and in our show that, you know, it was, it could be one of the reasons, you know, because they want to race in their own skin suits.

And yeah, I mean, if you look at the tactics of today, they knew that Bogacar had to attack on the last climb and that most likely he was going to get first on top. So that's automatically two or three points. I don't remember how many. So that automatically puts him in the lead. So yeah, the way I'm thinking or we've been thinking about him wanting to be out of the Bocce d'Algerzi, there's two scenarios. One is that he wanted Tim Wellens to have personal success and be on the podium, which

is possible. The more recent story now is that, and this is actually mind blowing if you think about it, that he was almost sure he was going to win number 100 and he wanted to win the Rainbow Jersey, which is mind blowing if you think about that. You know, it's not just, they're not just trying to win the race. They're predicting the scenario of how they want to win. That's actually a lot. Yeah. Yeah. It's scary. It freaks me out. And I'm not even racing against them, but that is unbelievable. Well, I think we're pretty sure Evan Apples is going to win,

but weird stuff does happen. You know, like I actually frankly don't even think a flat, I think he could survive a flat. I think they could get him another bike and he get going quick enough. He did look really good as George said on the move, chasing, chasing them down. I guess he got dropped. The other, the other side of the argument would be, well, he rode the climb easier than Pogacar and Vidigard, but you know, he's in that aero position. He looks really good when he's on his terrain, he wrote the time full gas to his possibilities. No, but he was strong in the end, he based back, but I think overall, you know, he's just he's in good form for sure. I think he's better than Dauphiné in better

shape. And he's the best time product. So he's, you know, if I have to, if I mean, that's, that that's stretching it really far. But wild card option, an interesting wild card option, and that would imply that maybe Remco has somewhat of a problem or we also have a change in the wind conditions. And that's somebody who goes early, a good time-proud specialist who goes early, like we saw, for example, in the Giro and downhill one that happened. There were changes in the wind conditions and you know, it was dry and then it started to rain. So an interesting option if we have to pick a wild card, I would go with Eduardo Affini.

He's the European champion at time trial. He's shown that he's really, really strong. And on stage one, he was impressive. So he must have incredible legs. I think he was second or third in that time trial also in the, in the Giro. So him going early, setting a fast, a fast tempo, and then having a change in the situation with the winds could be an option for to have him as a wildcard, especially at plus 3300. Yeah. The most recent TTs he's done, he did the Giro,

we got fourth and one and fifth and the other. I do think, yeah, though, cause he starts at 1 49 PM. He has minute men in front of him. Pagachar and Remco won't have that. They have four minutes in between riders. So they won't pass anybody. But Afini will be passing people. We saw this with Ghana, I believe at the Giro got this at like, because you have a team car, you might have a TV motorbike and you have the person so you can get a little bit of draft there when you pass every time you pass someone he might pass three people. Yeah and also and then plus you have the visual you know the mental aspect of you know chasing someone and passing someone is not to be overlooked. The wind is let's say four

miles an hour for the Americans and then nine miles when a Feeny goes and then supposed to be nine miles an hour when the favorites go. That's so considerable. That's considerable. Yeah. Yeah. This kind of protects us from feeling really silly, right? Like if a Feeny wins and you're like, we didn't see that. And also it's, we don't even know if this happens anymore, but he's on Visma. You'd imagine while they, maybe they want reference points for Jonas Vindegaard, so they're going to have him go really hard. It's kind of seems like people just go hard in time trials whenever they feel like it now. And then I hear the teams of software that you put in the course. And then it tells you what wattage to like, how hard to go on each specific part of the course.

And it kind of maybe takes away the need to do that as much, but I think, I think he'll go hard, but I'm going to go for my wild card just so we don't feel real, real silly. Teddy Pagachar plus 1100. Like you're getting a guy that's a pretty good time trial. If something happens to Evan a bowl, I don't think, like, I think the guys in the move are saying, well, Jonas could win the TT tomorrow. But, and, and I kind of agree with them in a vacuum, but he looked, you sent this video clip Pagache giving his post-race interview.

And then Jonas is like, looked wrecked. Yeah. I think Pagache is just stronger at the moment. And that for the moment. Yeah. Yeah. That will come out in a 33 kilometer time. Plus I think, you know, I mean, this is about power and aerodynamics. Today he has, for the moment, he has more power than Jonas. Yeah. You know, I don't know what happened in the Dauphiné. What was the problem there? You know, his equipment normally should be, what was the problem there? Um, you know, his equipment normally should be,

you know, top range. Um, they said, you know, there was an issue with the pacing strategy. Uh, but no, he did, he didn't do a bad time. Probably was still fourth in the TT. He's just a little off, like lost 48 seconds to rimco and someone, you know, listener did send in Jim, thank you, sent like a some medical studies on you do, you can suffer issues when you come down from altitude to race. And it tends to happen right about the amount of time that Pagatra did that time trial. So it could have been something to do with that. And just,

it wasn't terrible. It just wasn't at his best. Um, but I'm still picking them from my wild card. Okay. That's a good wild card. Well, let's take a quick ad break and then we're going to have you run through some head to heads. You're on fire with these head to heads. You had Shkelmos over Guillaume Martin, which looks obvious in retrospect. It's funny it was even offered but we will be right back to talk about those. So Johan, the first head to head is on Fandl in the US. Joao Almea minus three 10 versus Florian Lipowitz plus two 20. I'll make that. I agree. Primus Roglic minus one Oh eight versus Mateo Jorgensen minus one 26.

Matthew can pass if you don't like them. You think, yeah. But Jorgensen looks in strong at this so far. Yeah. It's kind of, yeah, the undiscussed story so far. Tadej Pogacar minus 126, Jonas, Jonas Vindegard minus 108. Okay. Kevin Valklan minus 116 versus Matthew Vanderpoel minus 116. Is Vanderpoel going to go hard in this? Vanderpoel minus one 16. Is Vanderpoel going to go hard in this? Yeah. Yeah. He's going to go hard. To try to keep yellow. No, no, no, no, no. He's going to honor the Jersey. He's going to, he's going to go hard. Yeah. I mean,

he should not go hard and save himself a stage seven, you know, but it's fat. It's much more than cool. Yeah. White Jersey where, it's much, much more than cool. Yeah. White Jersey where by the way, Eduardo of Feeney minus two 20 versus wildven art plus one 62. Hmm. I think. Okay.

I mean, cause well, then it's going to go hard, but right. We have to think so. I personally think it's not, it's not necessary. You know, it's, it's, it's not, uh, it's not a good plan, but they don't care what I think everyone goes hard in time trials. Now I don't, they're trying to respect the race. There's some people. I guess some people There's some people some experts on the internet

Say that sometimes they have to go hard. Otherwise they detrain or they untrained themselves Actually been talking about that's a really good this that's complete bullshit, by the way What did Bradley say? Was super interesting because he had a trainer from outside of cycling that wanted him to do like six hours the day after perinese winning perinese. Cause he's like, you're detraining in this race. And then he had another trainer, Shane Sutton, who knows a thing, thing or two about a thing or two who said, no, you can't do that because other trainer, you're not taking into account like the emotional and mental and physical stress of just being in a race. Yeah. So when you

look at it from just the numbers, yeah, maybe it seems like that, but that's not exactly how it works in real life. Well, you want anything else on this stage? No, that's it. Remco is winning tomorrow. I can guarantee you that. Well, everyone gambled responsibly, but that does seem to be the likely outcome. I do agree with you. All right. Well, thank you, Johan, and we will talk tomorrow. Okay. Thanks. All right. Bye.