THEMOVE - Tour de France Stage 6 Preview | OŪTCOMES

Episode Date: July 9, 2025

Johan Bruyneel and Spencer Martin reveal their picks for tomorrow's Stage 6 of the Tour de France. Listen in to see how the duo thinks the action will play out, who will come out on top, and which riders present the best betting value. Use our special link to see where you can bet in your area and claim the best sign-up offers https://nxtbets.com/betoutcomes/

My issue with Primoz in this tour is his attitude and his relaxed attitude. Like, yeah, we'll see. I don't care. He said several times, I don't care. Which if I'm his team boss or the sponsor, I will be furious. Well, also think about his teammates. They've just spent like weeks at outstude camp away from their families. Yeah.

Yeah. That would be dispiriting. Hi, I'm Spencer Martin along with Johan Berniel, and this is Outcomes. Outcomes is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this podcast should be considered financial advice. Please gamble responsibly. And if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, seek help from a professional resource. Host and guests may have financial interests in the bets discussed. Passed performance does not guarantee future results. Everybody, welcome back to Outcomes. I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with Johan Berniel. We are

predicting stage six of the Tour de France. I'll go through the odds and then we'll get Johann's take on who's going to win and how it plays out. But before I do that, I just want to remind everybody, if you're listening and thinking, wow, this is interesting, but I would love to actually bet myself. Well, we have a partner NextBets. So if you go to nxtbets.com slash bet outcomes, it will tell you exactly where you can bet where you live. The best signup bonuses on each book, the best odds. I highly recommend it again. That's nxtbet.com slash bet outcomes. There's also a link in the show notes, but you're on the favorite for tomorrow, which is a 201 kilometer stage. Very difficult,

by the way, about 11,000 feet of climbing. I overheard on the move this morning, just up and down all day with a very tough climb before the finish and then it finishes up a steep pitch, not a classified climb, but probably should be. It's quite hard. The favorite is Tadej Pogacar plus 250, Matthew Vanderpult plus 600, Jonas Vindegaard plus 1800,

Roman Gregoire plus 1800, Wout Van Aert plus 2400, Julian Alaphilippe plus 2500, Ben Healy plus 2900, Nielsen Palace plus 2900, Maru Schmidt plus 3100, Kevin Valkland plus 3300, it goes on and on. We'll call him out when we need to. But Johan, how is this, yet again, a classics-like stage, how is it yet again a classics like stage? How is it going to play out? Yeah, long, long stage, 201 kilometers, seven climbs in total from Bayeux to Vire Normandie.

I mean, unfortunately, Spencer, I have to, I have to repeat myself with this kind of terrain. And after what we've seen yesterday and today, this is Pogacar terrain. Some people say, okay, it could be a breakaway. There is a possibility, okay, that's for sure. But normally, the way I see this, there's going to be a break and there's going to be a lot of tension in the peloton is only stage six. It's up and down. So positioning is constantly important. There's going to be a lot of instructions from the car, be in the front, be in the front, be in the front.

And only that those instructions and that tension builds up in the peloton and automatically it's 47-48 kilometers per hour cruise speed. So that also makes for that the breakaway cannot take a lot of advantage. The final is very similar to yesterday. There's a climb with the cresting with 5k to go. Not an easy climb. It's 1.2 kilometers, 7%. But the first part is 11%. So the peloton is going to want to be... The teams will bring the guys to the front. And then with 4k to go, it's a bit of downhill. And then the last kilometer is uphill. And the last 700 meters are actually at 10%. So that's quite steep. There's even a pitch of 14%. This is Pugacar terrain again. I think, if it's that hard for the moment,

it doesn't really matter if it's 500 meters a kilometer or 15 kilometers uphill. There's nobody who can beat Pugotar uphill right now. So I'm gonna pick him at plus 250. It's a rare spot to be any right. It could be the Finestra or it could be this climb, which is one kilometer long, but it's the same outcome. It's Bogotar. I'm also gonna go with him.

I found he's at plus 250 right now on FanDuel, I believe. Or no,. Yeah. Fan dual and bet through 65, but someone emailed in, they're like, how do you guys know if it's going to be breakaway or not? It was like, well, we don't really know. We're just taking our best guess, but there's a confluence of factors. I think maybe you didn't say this, maybe you did, but the time trial, like an effective rest day today.

So everyone who wants to be in the break took it easy, but we're still so early in this. But that also means the the break took it easy, but we're still so early in this, but that also means that Doma Steex took it easy. And then there's a sprint point 22 kilometers into the stage. Little Trek will keep it together until that sprint point. So Jonathan Milan can sprint. Then there's a basically a six K long 4% climb right after that.

That's going to be nuclear fast because the breakaway is going to try to go there. If it doesn't get away, then there's another climb. It's going to try to go there. If it doesn't get away, then there's another climb. It's going to try to go there. It will get away at some point, but the, it probably will take a long time. They'll be tired. They'll be easier to pull in. And then there's four climbs in the last half of the stage. And as we saw yesterday on those, like the GC teams will be so keyed up to be first into it and they'll race it so

hard. They'll just start taking chunks of time out of the breakaway and they could catch them almost by accident and I think there's going to be a cross tailwind which will also make them nervous everyone will want to be at the front if they're cruising along at 50k an hour it's just hard for a break to build up a big enough gap I mean even think on that second to last climb how much time they're going to take out of a breakaway like if they're going 700 watts for two minutes they're going to take out of a breakaway. Like if they're going 700 Watts for two minutes, they're going to take some time out of them. It's just going to be.

Not just on the climb, but especially the approach to the climb. Yeah. But it's double fast, you know, and we could see, for example, uh, yesterday Visma was doing a great job of lining it up to make sure that Jonas was in the front, but then those five kilometers, that's like, okay, next one and a half minute on a breakaway. With that speed. So it's true though, it's day six,

the day after the time trial, there's tired bodies and there's also bodies that save themselves specifically for tomorrow. But still, breakaway going to be difficult. So let's both make sure that we get the lot. Sure. Yeah. It's not a sure thing, obviously, but responsibly, but you rarely are living in an era with a rider like this. And this stage this early in a grant tour and a grant tour, he's this good at,

I think he almost reluctantly wins this. But if he gets there and there's no breakaway he'll race it and he'll probably win because Vanderpool as good as he is can't stay with him but Johan if something does go odd if something odd happens are there any wild cards you like? I mean there are wild cards I think first of all even if it's all together or you know the majority of the favorites are together and the punchers are there. There's only one rider in my opinion who could potentially beat Pogacar on a 700 meter steep climb like this. I have my doubts, but there's one rider who could do that. That's Mathieu Vandrepool plus, and that's why I'm going to pick him

as my wild card. He can also be in the breakaway and win from the break. So I think with Vanderpool we're playing on the betting on two scenarios and he's plus 550. So I think that's kind of the alternative to the Pogacar scenario. I actually just found him at plus 700 on Caesar's. I'm putting that bet in right now, but yeah, I like Vanderpool as a wild card because as you say, if it break does go away, he could be in it. And that's UAE would probably like that. If he could get back in the yellow Jersey, they'd think that's awesome. Yeah.

He's the only rider. Like I'm trying to think back to 2021 when he won on, have climbed similar to this a little bit longer than this, but it has happened, but it's, it seems hard to have for it to happen now because it's not the, the thing is Spencer is not the same. Bogotar Bogotar just so much better than 2021. So it's a wild time we're living in. But I think in that we should say, because Pagache is a plus 250 favorite. It's not like today where the favorite was Remco Evenepoel at minus 380.

That doesn't leave you a lot of room for your wild cards. You have to be super judicious about how much you put on them. You don't want them to eat into your small profit margin. With Pagache at plus 250, we have a little bit more room to work. You can throw a little bit of money on Vanderpool. I'm going to go, I'm going deep, deep in the left field here. I found Quinn Simmons at plus 5,000. Quinn Simmons, who just wants to stage at the tour of Switzerland, plus 5,000 at the book is, is Caesars. So I'm going Quinn Simmons plus 5,000. That's probably a breakaway bet. In theory, I mean, if something got really tactical, I guess he could get away. He's one of the

strongest riders in the Peloton. But the problem is he's, even if you're like one of the strongest riders in the Peloton, you're still not that strong compared to Pogacar. So if Pogacar really goes up against him, he won't win. But if something strange happens in the finale or a breakaway, Quinn Simmons could win. Yeah, now that's a good one. That's a good one. I mean, there is a potential scenario. It's going to depend on, I would assume the intention of UAE would be okay, let the breakaway go. attention of UAE would be okay, let the breakaway go. It's usually also, even if it's not for the yellow jersey, it's usually usually also a calmer approach to the finish because the modifications are gone. Right? Yeah, there's a breakaway.

Yep. So it's it has a lot of advantages for UAE to have a breakaway to the finish. But I think personally, that the stress of the race will take care of the breakaway. That's probably right. But Quinn Simmons at plus 5,000, you can just throw a little bit of money on him if he wins you. That's actually, I got Matteo Jorgensen to win the whole race at plus 5,000, probably better chances of Quinn Simmons winning this stage than Matteo Jorgensen

winning the whole Tour de France. That's probably a pretty good investment for a small amount of money, but let's take a quick break. Then we'll talk about the head to heads and you've been on fire with those lately. So you're going to want to stick around for those. All right, Johan, the head to heads for today's stage. I think you got all but one right yesterday. It's rare, very rare to sweep all of them. In theory, you could parlay that and you would get some insane return.

So to get all but one is quite good. So for today, this is on Fandu in the US. Tadej Pogacar minus 235 versus Matthew Vanderpool plus 172. And this is interesting because it comes into play even if the breakaway is away. Yeah, Pogacar. Pogacar. Pogacar. Yeah.

Yeah, I guess Vanderpoel could be in the breakaway, but again, we don't think high likelihood of that. Rimcoe and Pogacar minus 205 versus Mateusz Sklmoza plus 150. Riemko. Yeah, Rimcoe does look pretty good right now. Romain Gregoire minus 186 versus Kevin Vaclan plus 138. I considered both of these people for the stage, by the way, but yeah. Well, you know, I mean, listen, if, if Buacca and Mathieu are there, they can't win.

They're punchy. Um, Well, and Vaclan can't be in the breakaway. He's too. No, Roman Gregoire can be in the break. Um, in, and Vaklan can't be in the breakaway. He's too, can be in the break. Um, in that case. Yeah. I think it's then, then, then the breakaway needs to make it to the finish. Uh, another, another thing could be okay. Uh, great wire. He, I read an interview of him. He does have a mission for tomorrow.

Um, and there's a chance he gets caught though, and then spat out and Vaklan I read an interview of him. He does have a mission for tomorrow. And there's a chance he gets caught though and then spat out and Vuclan. Yeah. But the thing is that if we could also, Vuclan is less explosive than Gregoire. Although he did finish two times second on Mourdui in the Flash-Volone already. I know. Isn't that crazy? Louis in the flash for loan already. Wasn't that crazy? The thing is, the vocal line could probably be pay the efforts of the time for all of it because he went really deep and Greg war didn't. So that could be the difference tomorrow in the final.

The question is, once they see, obviously vocal line is going to, you know, try to lose the least amount of seconds towards, uh, towards Olajara. Uh, Gregor, once he sees, he can, once he blows up, you know, he's gonna, he's gonna try, he's gonna try to be there. Uh, once he blows up, he's gonna sit up on that, on that steep climb. So I'm going to go for VocaLine. All right. I like it positive plus 138.

These are my two favorite, Mateo Jorgensen minus 116 versus Joao Alameda minus 116. Two guys that want the exact same thing. Help their leader and finish as high up as possible. Yeah. Yeah. I'm wondering what happened to Matteo Jorgensen in the time trial. That's not a good day. So if there's something wrong, I don't know. But personally, I think that Almeida will do a bigger effort than Matteo Jorgensen, because the objective of Wismar is going to be not lose time. So well, Jonas and Matteo can be there and try to lose the least amount of time.

If Almeida is there, which I suspect he will be, he will need to lead out, he will need to set the tempo, a fast tempo on, on, on the last climb, the 700 meters. Now we've also seen that when Almeida puts the tempo, there's maybe three or four riders who can follow. When he let out yesterday and he's still finished in front of Jorgensen. Yeah. Yeah. Uh, in Jorgensen's defense, he tried to attacks also. So he did quite a bit. Um, Jorgensen. Okay. Primoz Roglic minus one Jorgensen also, I mean, this maybe is too early to talk about

it. Maybe this is taboo. Jorgensen might also have to start thinking about limiting his own losses because he might be the GC leader of that team. Well, maybe what if, what if there's like a plumbing issue at home for Pagache or Vendegaard and he has to go home mid-race to fix something around the house? Primoz Roglic minus 172 versus Enric Moss plus 126. Primos. Primos for sure. No, he surprisingly, he, he, uh, I mean, he didn't do a great time flow, but he finished surprisingly good.

He did a really good second part of the time. Yeah. Don't sleep on Primos is coming back and Bradley Wiggins had a good point in the studio today. He has not crashed yet. And that's like for Primoz, he might as well be 10 minutes in the lead. I'm with Primoz. My issue with Primoz in this tour is his attitude and his relaxed attitude that we'll see, I

don't care. He said several times, I don't care, which if I'm his team boss or the sponsor, I would be furious. Well, also think about his teammates. They've just spent like weeks at altitude camp away from their families. Yeah. That would be dispiriting. So yeah, he might, he might've gone full primos here a little too. He's gotten too far with the relaxed thing, but I don't, I think he might be in for a good second half of the race. I like him to beat Moss tomorrow. Yeah. Anything else today also get a great three state first three

stages though. Any, yeah. Can change pretty quickly in the tour of France. Yeah. Anything else, Johan, before we take off? No, that's it. All right, we will talk tomorrow. Have a good evening. Okay, thanks Spencer. Bye.