THEMOVE - Tour de France Stage 8 Preview | OŪTCOMES

Episode Date: July 11, 2025

Johan Bruyneel and Spencer Martin reveal their picks for tomorrow's Stage 8 of the Tour de France. Listen in to see how the duo thinks the action will play out, who will come out on top, and which riders present the best betting value. Use our special link to see where you can bet in your area and claim the best sign-up offers https://nxtbets.com/betoutcomes/

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That's Talkspace.com slash military. But the tour transforms Big Young with Mike. He's now on a really good level. He's very ambitious also for the green jersey. And he's plus 900. Slightly uphill sprint is also good for William Gilmire. Hi, I'm Spencer Martin along with Johan Berniel, and this is Outcomes. Outcomes is for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Nothing in this podcast should be considered financial advice. Please gamble responsibly. And if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, seek help from a professional resource. Host and guests may have financial interests in the bets discussed. Pass performance does not guarantee future results. Everybody welcome back to Outcomes. I'm Spencer Martin, and I'm here with Johann Berniel. And we are predicting stage eight of the Tour de France, 171 kilometer likely sprint stage with a tricky little uphill last kilometer, but I'll list off the odds.

And then Johan will tell us who he thinks is going to win and how it's going to play. I'll also pick a winner as well. Jonathan Milan is the favorite at plus 137, Tim Merlier at plus 200, Binyam Ghermay at plus 1000, Kane Groves plus 1600, Jordi Maes plus 1800, Wout Benhart plus 2000, Phil Bauhaus plus 3100, Danny Benpapel plus 3300. It goes on and on. We'll call them out when we need to. If those numbers are nonsense to you, if you don't know how to bet, you think it sounds fun, but it's overwhelming. Don't worry. We have a partner with Next. We have a partner NextBets, but you go to nxtbets.com slash bet outcomes, and there's a link in the show notes as well.

It will show you exactly where you can bet in the state where you live and the books that have the best signup bonuses. I highly recommend recommend doing this. I use it myself to find signup bonuses. But Johan, how do you think this is going to play out? I assume you think sprint stage and who do you think is going to win? Yeah, Spencer, I think it's for sure sprint stage. to win? Yeah, Spencer, I think it's for sure a sprint stage. Tomorrow and the day after, it's been a few days now since the sprinters didn't have the opportunity. Some teams are here purely with the sprinter and amongst them mainly Little Trek. They're here basically for Jonathan Milan. He's now in the green jersey. Or is he? No, Pogacar's in the green jersey. He's wearing the green jersey on behalf of Tadej Pogacar. But you know, I think first

objective is to win a stage and for sure he has ambition for the green jersey. So I think it's going to be a bunch print. Milan has the best lead out train, but I am going to pick Tim Merlier to win the stage. He's plus 175, doesn't necessarily have the best lead out train, if any, he just has Bert van der Berge. But Merlier has shown that he knows how to navigate his way through the peloton in the final of a race. And he just needs to focus on Milan. That Milan and his teammates are going to be the lead out train for Tim Merlier, in my opinion. And I'll stage on a finish like this, slightly uphill, uh, two, 3% if you can, if you can believe the profile. Um, I think for Merlier, that's also a great finish. It is for Milan too. But, um,

since we both have to pick one, I'm going to go with Tim Merlier. Yeah, it's, it's good pick. Probably the odds are flipped. Like, I don't quite understand why Merlier is not the favorite here, cause? Cause he's, I see him at plus 200 on Fanduo right now. I was a little worried about Mike. Well, does he really win multiple stages in a grand tour? But I went back to the 2024 tour and he won three, 2024 zero, sorry. He won three stages against Jonathan Milan, Benyam Gromai and Kaden Grove. So the four top sprinters He's probably the fastest sprinter at this race, but I'm going to pick just because of that uphill finish. And also he's not going to sprint at the intermediate sprint while Milan is.

So here's a good case for Tim Relear. I'm going to pick Jonathan Milan. I see him at plus one 50 right in front of my face on FanDuel. I'm going to pick him at that just because of the uphill kick. I guess that that's why it's so important to pick him at plus 150 right in front of my face on FanDuel. I'm going to pick him at that just because of the uphill kick. I guess that that's why Milan is probably the favorite because he, it's funny because he's so big.

You'd think he wouldn't be as good on uphill finishes, but he just produces so much power for so long. It can be hard to come around him on those uphill finishes. Also at the tour, we used to see riders spread winds around amongst themselves with Yastra Phillips, and that hasn't really been the case, but I'm gonna go Milan because Andy's looked really good in these intermediate sprints.

Maybe he can give some of that juice for the sprint finish. Hopefully he's not too gassed, but I'm gonna go Milan. I think that this could be the stage that he wins at this race. Yeah, for sure. I mean, he's one of the main guys. Let's not forget, you know, Jonathan Milan is not just a sprinter. He's a

very, very good bike rider. Yeah, anybody who let's not forget, this is the world records holder over four kilometer pursuit on the velodrome. There's not many sprinters. I don't know any sprinter who can do that. So he's much more than a sprinter, which is also, yeah, as you said, he's potentially on arrow. We were noticing that in the studio the other day and the fast finish,

he's very like upright, probably eats a lot of wind. So an uphill finish, I guess is better for him because the speeds are lower. He's not, it's not as punishing for him. Yeah. Yeah. Big power, big power. Yeah. Big. Yeah. How many sprinters, how many big sprinters have been 4k pursuit champions? Have you ever seen that before? I'm not sure I have. No, I mean, yeah. Was he like a, well, Kittle has been, Kittle had been world champion time trial juniors.

Okay. But you know, that's still when they are kind of discovering, I mean, I don't know what the distance was in the time trial in the juniors. 200 meters. He would never win a time trial in professionals. At least not, you know, any, no time trial over 10 kilometers. A sprinter sometimes they can do good in pro logs, you know, like short pro logs. We have them less and less, but yeah, three, four kilometer, five kilometer pro logs. Sometimes a sprinter could do really well, but yeah, Milan, I mean, the four kilometer

individual effort on the track. That's like, that's an endurance event. That's not a sprint event. And it shows, that's why he's such a good climber. Like a lot of people compare him to Marcel Kittel. Like Marcel Kittel couldn't climb his way out of a paper bag. And like Jonathan Milan is a really good climber,

which you have to have, really gets the same power to be a 4K pursuers. So that makes sense. If one of these two does not win, Johan, do you have a wild card pick? Yeah, I think I'm going to go with Bigname Guillermai. If you would have asked me, you know, for stage one and two, I would have said no, you know, because we haven't seen anything from Guillermai yet this season before the Tour de France. But the tour transforms

Bignan Girmay. He's now on a really good level. He's very ambitious also for the green jersey. And he's plus 900. Slightly uphill sprint is also good for Bignan Girmay. I'm going to pick him to win the stage at 900, but I'm also going to put some money on him for the podium 150. I think that's probably one of the best bets of this show. Podium for Grimaille 150. Yeah. Yeah.

Isn't that amazing? Because yeah, there's three of those spots are available and it's the same odds as Jonathan Millon winning the stage basically. Plus 1000 is pretty good. Like if Grimai wins a stage, it's going to be a stage just like this. The plus one 50 for the podium, I think is really good. I'm going to go, a guy he's been quiet, but he's got to step up. There's been changes in the team. Caden Groves plus 1600 for the win plus two 25 for the podium. I'm going, I'm doing both of those because he's a really just fit.

He's a good all around writer, a very fit guy for a sprinter tends to do well when other people are tired. I'd imagine there's going to be a lot of tired legs in that sprint tomorrow. So I'm going to go Groves for my wild card and my podium. Okay. Yeah. I, I support that. And I assume he'll have Matthew Vanderpool on lead out duty. I don't think the green Jersey is a, I just don't really see how Vanderpool could win the green Jersey at this point. No, no, I think, I think at this point, Vanderpool is going to give up on the green Jersey. Yeah.

I think the, that's probably something you play with during a few days, see how it goes. But no, after today, um, no, it's, uh, it's either going to be in Milan or to watch her. Who is the green Jersey? I think, I think we can say this already now. Yeah. Like if Milan crashes out, it's actually hard to imagine how well, well, not even, not even crashing out. I mean, Pogacar is going to score a lot of points still. That would be, yeah, man. Well, we'll see after these next two days.

That would be unbelievable. Look at it this way. We're seven stages in, we didn't have any mountain stage yet. Who's leading in the green jersey competition? Pugacar. Well, on that note, I just need to share this fact with you because no one on set cared about it. We haven't had a mountain yet, Johan. And we had a time trial where Pugacar lost time and he's almost a minute in the lead in the GC. That's unbelievable. Yeah, those are big gaps for basically just a few time bonuses and a time trial where he didn't even win. He wasn't even top amongst the GC contenders. That was the worst stage for GC that he's going

to face at this tour. And he's almost a minute in front of everybody. And yeah, he might win the green jersey. It's pretty incredible. But let's take a quick break and then we'll get back to your head to heads, which you're doing pretty well in the last few days. So you're going to want to stick around for that. If you want to feel more connected to humanity and a little less alone, listen to Beautiful Anonymous. Each week I take a phone call from one random anonymous human being. There's over 400 episodes in our back catalog. You get to feel connected to all these different people all over the world. Recent episodes include one where a lady survived a murder attempt by her own son. But then the week before that, we just talked about Star Trek.

It can be anything. It's unpredictable. It's raw. It's real. Get Beautiful Anonymous wherever you listen to podcasts. All right. First head to head, this is on FanDuel in the US. Tadej Pogacar minus 144 versus Jonas Vindegaard plus 106.

Jonas. Jonas. Jake Stewart, minus 116. Stein Friedheim, minus 116. That's the most interesting ones to me. Wow. Stewart is the guy on Israel, right? Yeah.

Not clear to me that he's even going to, at some point do they switch to him for the sprinter? Yeah. Well, I guess, I guess the thinking behind this is that Stuart is going to lead out for Ackerman and the other, the Norwegian guy is going to lead out for a Weren's Guild. Yeah. Depends how much they slow down each of them. That's a difficult one. Um, Jake Stewart. Yeah.

I mean, just to go back to stage three, Jake Stewart's 14th. Stein is 29th. So that's pretty high up Jake Stewart and 14th. I also would not rule out Jake Stewart eventually sprinting for that team. And then the guy went, do you want to stage at the Dauphiné sprint stage? Yeah. Not the same thing though. Not the same race. It's like, if you're running away from a lion, you don't have to be faster than the lion. You have to be faster than the other person with you. It's like he doesn't have to be faster than Merlier. He just has to be faster than

Pascal Ackerman to be sprinting. So Benyam Gromai minus 164 versus Kaden Groves plus 118. This is the R Wildheart. Yeah. I mean, yeah, if you think about it, it's the defending on it. I mean, yeah. As you think about it, it's the defending green Jersey winner against the lead guy who came in to lead out. It seems like he's getting into the rhythm. I have the feeling like you can also hear in his, you know, in his interviews, he's getting the confidence compared to the first few stages.

I mean, he, he's, he has an incredible ability to be good at the tour. For reasons I don't fully understand after being quiet all year. So I don't think we've seen the last of your mind at this tour. Well anything else, Johan, before we take off? No, that's it for me. All right. And then we will check in on like, there's actually some interesting like top tens and GC bets you can place, but we're going to wait a few days and then we'll maybe we'll

jump in on that on Monday after that stage. Okay. Well, thanks, Spencer. We'll talk tomorrow. Thanks, Johan. Bye. You