THEMOVE - Tour de France Stage 9 Preview | OŪTCOMES

Episode Date: July 12, 2025

Johan Bruyneel and Spencer Martin reveal their picks for tomorrow's Stage 9 of the Tour de France. Listen in to see how the duo thinks the action will play out, who will come out on top, and which riders present the best betting value. Use our special link to see where you can bet in your area and claim the best sign-up offers https://nxtbets.com/betoutcomes/

Compared to other Tour de France, where when the sprint stage is in the beginning of the tour, there's been a few hard stages now and the riders actually need these relatively easy days to recover. tomorrow. Hi, I'm Spencer Martin along with Johann Berniel and this is Outcomes. Outcomes is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this podcast should be considered financial advice. Please gamble responsibly and if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, seek help from a professional resource. Host and guests may have financial interests in the bets discussed. Pass performance does not guarantee future results. Everybody, welcome back to Outcomes. I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with Johann Berniel. We are

predicting stage nine of the Tour de France. I'll list off the odds and then we will get into who's gonna win and how it's gonna play out. The favorite is Tim Merlier, plus 125. Second favorite, even though he won today, Jonathan Milan at plus 150, Caden Groves plus 1,400, Binyam Ghermay plus 1,800, Jordi Meyooz plus 2,300, Wout Menard plus 2,900, Danny Van Poppel plus 3,400, Phil Bauhaus plus 3,00. It goes on and

on. We'll call them out when we need to. If those numbers were just, what is going on? You don't understand them well, you're in luck because we have a partner, NextBets. All you have to do is go to nxtbets.com slash bet outcomes, and it shows you exactly where to bet wherever you live. I was even in the UK recently and NextBets worked there. It showed me where I could bet online. And more importantly, it shows you the best signup bonuses you can get. So right now I'm looking, I'm in Colorado.

I see on DraftKings, if I create an account, I can bet $5 and I get $150 for free. Same thing with FanDuel. So make sure you check that out. Johan, I assume you think this is a sprint stage. It's 174 kilometers, no categorized climbs, so no KOM points, pretty straightforward finish. Flat, as flat as they get probably at the tour.

What do you think, bunch sprint? Yeah, I think bunch sprint, Spencer. Chateau Roux is also very famous for bunch prints, especially after flat stage like this. I'm not mistaken, Mark Cavendish won there three or four times. I think it was three times. Yeah. So yeah, I think it's a bunch print, especially knowing that stage 10 is going to be very hard. The day after is a rest day. So anybody who has a sprinter will want to make sure that it's a bunch sprint. I think we can foresee the same scenario as today. A little track.

And I don't know, I mean, Van Aert got second and I don't think Visma is interested in working. Girmaï with his team with Inter Marché, probably Alpecin for Caden Grove's. So we'll have some people maybe try it. Today was actually really strange because nobody even tried to attack until these two guys from Total Energies got the instructions that they needed to show the jersey on TV. Those kind of stages that everybody knows, okay, why bother? Plus, I think compared to other Tour de France, where when the sprint stage is in the beginning of the tour, there's been a few hard stages now and the riders actually need these relatively

easy days to recover. Today was a perfect example of that. On top of that was headwind. So I foresee the same scenario tomorrow, one sprint. Today he didn't have the, I'm not going to say the chance to sprint, but he had a flat tire with 11K to go, made it back, but ran out of legs. I'm going to still pick my same favorite as yesterday, Tim Merlis, plus 110 for the win. I think he's usually good after a defeat.

He's shown this already in the past, that when he had a disappointing finish and the day after he's back. So I think in terms of pure speed, he's the fastest rider. I think Milan, who won today, is the most powerful sprinter. I think in terms of top speed, Merlier has the edge. So I'm going to pick him to win. He's actually plus 150 on bet 365. So even better. Um, yeah, there was like a lot of people texting me like, what's wrong? Like why, this is boring. Why aren't people getting in the

breakaway? It's like, well, the writers have to rest at some point. And what's the point? Like you're just going to get caught. Like there's do not waste your energy going in the move. I thought what total did waiting for the intermediate sprint before breaking away makes the most sense because we have seen it's not going to happen here, but it does zero. It happens sometimes where the late breakaway, they miscalculate and they don't catch them because you're fresher. But yeah, just, I don't know, save your energy. What are we doing? We got hard stages coming up. I would not waste your time sitting out there in a breakaway. I also think Johan probably UCI points matter anymore.

Have shifted priorities. I could rather sprint for 10th place than getting a breakaway all day and get nothing for it. Yeah. I'm going to go. I think we talked about on our weekly show, it was someone on Twitter had the idea of giving UCI points for getting in the breakaway, which I kind of like, which would really spice these stages up. But Jonathan Milan, one today, he's plus 150 at bet 365 as well.

I cannot believe this man is not the favorite. He's got his head down. He's tucked that head down steep Reno on American TV said it's giving him an extra bike length. I don't know if I fully believe that, but I think Milan, I don't think anyone can come around him right now. And, uh, despite what George and Cappy says, I think that team is working pretty well together, so they're going to fix that lead out and I think he's going to win.

Yeah, definitely the strongest, uh, in terms of pure power, you know, but you know, sprints can go wrong today. Today was actually an ideal finish for him, Spencer, because it was slightly uphill. There was a lot less fighting for position. And if you look, it's one of the few sprints that I see that they were actually almost all in a line. They were not bunched up. Tomorrow, that's not going to be the case because it's completely flat. But yeah, I mean, listen, Milan is one of the top sprinters. And now with the confidence, he is now for real in the green jersey. So that's one thing. This might be one of the advantages for Merlier that Milan seems to really make it a call for green. So he needs to go full gas for that intermediate sprint.

Merlier also sprints, but he doesn't go full gas for that intermediate sprint. Merlier also sprints, but he doesn't go full gas in those sprints. He just soft pedals. I mean, it's maybe a bit farfetched to try to find an angle why Merlier could maybe be better in the final because there's not that many people contesting those sprints anyway. But yeah, I one 50, uh, Milan is that's a good pick. I do think Merlier probably wins one more stage at this race. So it's just a question of, is it tomorrow or is it later in the race? I mean, just so fast and he had some bad luck today, but bad luck on stage one too. But I guess we'll see who wins tomorrow.

I'm actually quite excited to see who wins. I actually, I kind of like these weekends, front stages. It lets you kind of rest a little bit before things get wild again on Monday. But if it's not those two guys, do you have a wild card pick you like? Um, I'm as a wild card, I'm just going to do, uh, not for, not for the win, but I'm going to pick Benyant Girmay for the podium. Um, today he, he, he wasn't there. But I'm going to pick Bin Yang Girema for the podium. Today he wasn't there.

I don't know exactly what happened if he was boxed in. I think he ran out of legs yesterday because of the speed, a little bit bad position and with that drag of two and a half percent, didn't have it anymore. But still, it's still being young getting my, you know, and then so for the podium I can see, I can see him being a second or third. He's plus two 50 for the podium. Yeah. Plus, plus two 50 for the podium.

I like this. I mean, today we did, we, yesterday we split our wild cards. So it's like we spent half of what we would have on wild cards and then the other half on that wild card to podium. But the thing I liked about that is like Milan won and then grows was my podium wild card at plus 150. So it's like I basically had two winners. And like tomorrow if Merlier wins and Grameis third, you have a winner at plus 150 and plus

250, which and then your podium is actually outperforming your winner, but you're winning on both gives you two chances to win. I like that a lot. I'm going to go same thing. I'm not picking my wild card to win. I'm going Caden roves to podium, he podium today at plus one 10. I think what we saw today, Johan is like, if wild been art can't get around Jonathan Milan on an uphill sprint like that, I don't think anyone's coming around Merlier Milan. Like it just seems a little difficult to imagine. Those other guys look like they were in molasses when the sprint started.

Sure. The thing with Milan is, you know, you kind of need to get the jump on him to beat him. You know, I think it's even for Merlier, now it's going to be very difficult. And if Milan tomorrow gets his lead out train properly there, it's a strong lead out train. And once he gets up to speed,

it's difficult to come around him. So Merlier is known to anticipate and get the jump, but with tomorrow's finish, it's a straight line again. It's not straight line again. It's not going to be easy. Well, we'll have to see what happens, but let's take a quick break and then we'll do head to heads, which little rougher time yesterday, but you did. I want to talk about this vingard pagaccio head to head because I think we're seeing a trend there that people can take advantage of. All right, we're back.

Johan first wild card. This is fan duel in the US. This is, I've been having more fun with these than our stage picks actually, all tour. So Timmerleer minus 116 versus Jonathan Milan minus 116. Mm-hmm. I mean, if we're already picking one of each for the win, then it's the two kind of, they're both negatives.

I'm not sure this makes any sense because this would make sense if maybe we thought a breakaway would stay away but I think they will contest the win so just bet on them to contest the win and not do this. Yeah. So we're going to pass we pass. Yeah we're going to take it possibly this way. Yeah. Jonas Vindegaard, minus 108. Now, he was not positive like yesterday versus Tadej Pogacar, minus 126. And as I'm sure a lot of people noticed today, Pogacar was sitting at the back with Remco, and Vindegaard was spending a lot of energy

to be at the front, so he finished in front of Pogacar. Your bet paid off. It's kind of funny to me that Pogacar is still the underdog here when it seems like, or he's still the favorite, even though it seems like he just has a different strategy than Vinnegar. Yeah. I'm going to go Jonas again. I like that.

Eventually they'll flip this on us and it won't be effective anymore. Caden Groves minus 172 versus Binyam Gourmay plus 126. Where's Caden Groves now in the green jersey? He's not up there, no? I don't think he is so far down. He's eighth with 60 points versus Gourmay has 124. Okay, Binyam. Yeah, I think. My thinking behind this is that if Keaton Grove sees that he can't be top three, then

he's not going to insist. Binyam will keep going for the points. Yes. And these two stages today and tomorrow are key for the green because Milan and Girmay have to score points here because Pogacar is going to go on a tear in the mountains would be the thinking Pascal Ackerman minus 116 versus Phil Bauhaus minus 116. Ackerman was fourth today. He did a good sprint.

He did a good sprint. Ackerman. Okay. Then Arnaud DeLis minus 172 versus Alberto Dianese plus 126. What is this? De Giro d'Italia? Dianese in the sprints? I'm going to go Dianese because it's flat. De Lis was good. It was slightly uphill. I mean, somebody needs to tell the Lee. In those kind of sprints, he needs to hold his handlebars from the bottom. He was on the hoods.

I don't want to sound like an old man, but this is definitely a kid's thing. There's kids out there sprinting on their hoods. I don't even know what to say about that. It's so much slower and so much less stable. Yeah. If you're, if you're a young cyclist listening to this sprint on your sprint on the drops, what are we doing here? Yeah. Dinez plus one 26. I like that flat sprint is positive money. Anything else, Johan before we take off? That's it from Spencer. All right. Well, we will be back to predict Bastille Day Stage 10 tomorrow, and then we'll take a rest going into the rest day. And then we'll actually podcast on the rest day if anyone's curious about our schedule. But thank you. And we will talk tomorrow.