THEMOVE - Tour of Flanders 2025 Preview | OŪTCOMES

Episode Date: April 5, 2025

Spencer Martin and Johan Bruyneel break down the course, contenders, and likely outcomes for tomorrow's Tour of Flanders, the second, and potentially best, one-day Monument of the 2025 season. Listen in to see how the duo thinks the race will play out, which riders can even hope to challenge Mathieu van der Poel and Tadej Pogačar, and who presents the best betting value.   Hims: Start your free online visit today at https://hims.com/themove for your personalized hair loss treatment options. Results vary. Based on studies of topical and oral minoxidil and finasteride. Prescription products require an online consultation with a healthcare provider who will determine if a prescription is appropriate.    Troscriptions: There’s a completely new way to optimize your health. Give it a try at https://www.troscriptions.com/THEMOVE or enter THEMOVE at checkout for 10% off your first order.

I'm not going to pick Pogacar. I'm going to pick Mathieu van der Poel. I think van der Poel is in the best shape of his life for one day races. He already won Milan Sanremo. Pogacar tried to drop him there on the Chipressa, on the Poggio. Hi, I'm Spencer Martin, along with Johan Bernil, and this is Outcomes. Outcomes is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this podcast should be considered financial advice. Please gamble responsibly. And if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, seek help from a professional resource host and guests may have financial interests in the bets discussed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Everybody welcome back to outcomes. I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with the Ohan Berniel. We are predicting the tour of Flanders or Rondevon Flanders and 270 kilometer race. I think the best race of the year, probably the one of the hardest races of the year in interesting and kind of difficult one to predict because of this, we will get Johan's take on who is going to win and how it's going to play out.

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Like just for reference, if it was 100, if you bet $100 or euros, you would win a hundred of profit. So you 200 total payout. Matthew Vanderpoel plus 150, Mads Pedersen plus 1000, Wout van Aert plus 1400, Mateo Jorgensen plus 3300, Philippe O' plus 5,000, Nielsen Palace who just won Dwarves of Vlaanderen plus 5,000. That's an absurd, absurd long shot odds for someone that won a lead in race. Stefan Kugn plus to 6,600, Magnus Sheffield plus 8,000. It starts to drop off. The winner usually comes from above that, but this is why it's actually weird to me that Vanderpult's not the favorite, but Johan, who do you think is going to win and how are they going to

win? Yeah, well, you know, we, it's, it's, there's a lot of debate now, you know, it's Bogacar versus Vanderpool. It seems like everybody else doesn't count. Um, that's not the way bike racing works, especially Tour of Flanders, because it could also be a tactical race. Although I think that these two guys are a level bit above everybody else. So if things go as normal and there's no circumstances, meaning there's no breakaway that can't be reeled in, or there's nobody of the favorites held up by a crash. I'm not going to pick Pogacar. I'm going to pick Mathieu van der Poel.

I think van der Poel is in the best shape of his life for one day races. He already won Milan San Remo. Pogacar tried to drop him there on the Cipressa, on the Poggio. Not steeper climbs but longer efforts, like five minutes plus, Cipressa almost 10 minutes. This is different. These are shorter climbs, they're steep, but this is Van der Poel's preferred terrain. This is his backyard. If you look at his track record of Mathieu Van der Poel, he did the Tour of Flanders six times. He won it three times. He was two times second and one time fourth when he crashed. There's nobody in the

Peloton right now who has a better track record than Mathieu van der Poel. People say, yeah, you know, Pogacar dropped him two years ago, 2023. That's true. There's two reasons why I think that's not going to happen tomorrow. Number one, as I said, I think Vandorpul is in a better shape than then. And secondly, a guy like Vandorpul, I think also it was a bit of a, I'm not going to say tactical mistake, but he, he was kind of surprised a little bit by first, by the first attack of, of Pogacar. And the way I know what you have under the pool, I mean, his, his character, his pride, I can't see him let that happen a second time.

These two minute efforts, you know, it's, it's very repetitive, but there's only one climb into a Flanders, which is three minutes. That's the Al de Quarremont. He has also this ability to ride on cobbles like no one else. I think that's in the favor of Van der Poel compared to Pogacar. For all this, plus the fact that he also has a strong team, Pogacar also has a strong team. But if it's man to man, I don't think that Pogacar will be able to drop Mathieu Van der Poel. There's maybe one climb where it's possible.

It would be the Koppenberg, super steep. But it's earlier in the race and it's far from, uh, from, from, from the finish. Um, and then it's, it's man against man from there on, um, still to the main one, the wonder pool. He went last year, no on the, on the Koppenberg, but it was, it was, it was and Jorgensen behind him. Um, that's a possibility, but honestly, I think, I think van der Poel is the king of Flanders. Um, and that's why he's going to win tomorrow. It's a compelling case. And I mean, full disclosure, I've bet, I've been on Vanderpool to win this race a week ago. So I guess in some way,

I agree with you because if you just think about it like this, but gotcha has to drop Vander pole. Vander pole doesn't have to drop. But gotcha. That's a huge disadvantage because if they go to the line together, probably Vander pole wins. As we saw on Wednesday, it's, it's never a guarantee, but there's a good chance Vander pole can just be fine with the sprint finish. But gotcha has to make this race as hard as possible from a really long way out and probably drop Vanderpool again. It doesn't seem easy. As you said, I do think Vanderpool is better now than he was in 2023 when Pogacar won, but you don't think that Pogacar can drop him on the old Quarant again, the last pass of it.

Yeah, I mean, he did already in the past, but I think, I think van der Poel is just in amazing shape right now. And he's focusing, he's just picking out his objectives. You know, he, he didn't race anymore after E3, didn't do Gendwevel again, didn't do Duarsdorf-Lond um, he's just going for the big ones. And, uh, I mean, so it's Pogacar, but, um, he compared to let's, let's, let's look at it this way. Uh, Spencer, Van der Poel has two big races left in what is the majority of the season. It's Flanders and Roubaix. After that, Van der Poel can say, okay, guys, I'm out of here and I'm preparing for the World Championships mountain bike now in the fall. Pogacar still has the big objectives coming. He has Flanders, he does Roubaix. Those are actually not his two biggest objectives. He does Liège, he does the Tour de France.

he has, he does Liège, he does the Tour de France. Right. So I think that's also the advantage plus that van der Poel has already his monument in the pocket so he can race more stress free, I would say. Okay, Pogacar can also mean it doesn't really matter if he wins or not. He's number one rider in the world. By far, right, he has more than double of the UCI points than the number two in the classification. So, um, but, uh, but no, I, I don't think Pogacar is dropping Rundlepool tomorrow. I don't think so.

Well, just to zag, I'm going to say he does drop them, but almost for the reason you just laid out for Vanderpool, like Pogacar less stress than van Vanderpool. I mean, he seems to be able to handle this incredibly well. Like one of the weird things about the last five years is Vanderpool went from this erratic, you know, he's like erratic. He would always, I feel like he would always kind of make the work. Remember like 2019 he was riding on the sidewalk with no hands and he's flipping over his handlebars. Like he is a different rider from then. Like he's always in the right place, right time time can just parachute in. I found a crazy stat the other day.

That's something like he's won 23 world tour races in his career, which is actually with less than Wout van Aert and is like a third of. But gotcha a 70 world tour wins, which shows you how little he races. Like he just parachutes in wins them like 65% of his world tour wins or before May. Like he can just drop it in the spring, win big races. Eventually, I just have to think this catches up to him. Like there's a lot of pressure on a small number of races. That would be my argument for Pagachar. And then also, man, these Strava times,

I want to fall. I don't want to fall for the clickbait, but I took a peep at Pagachar Strava before this episode when he did his Rubé recon. like there's, there's, there's some qualifiers there, but the dude is feline specifically over Cobblestones. Yeah. You have to take into account also Spencer, there's also the psychological game, you know, like Pogacar obviously published, uh, his, his, uh, recon ride in Roubaix for that specific reason, because he had three KOMs, right? Now we don't know. I mean, I do know that one of them is,

I think, uh, Monson-Pavelle, which is a really hard sector. Uh, it was, the wind was blowing very, very hard. It was tailwind. Then there was a motorbike in the game also. I know that the team rented a motorbike in Belgium to accompany him on the sectors. And it's for training purposes, of course, because you want the guys to come in at race speed and do the sector at race speed.

But he hasn't published his Strava file of his tour of flounders recon. He doesn't, he didn't publish the time on the Quaramont. Uh, well, and I'm sure you saw this headline that he did in 40 K an hour, but then you're like, you read that article. There's not a lot of evidence in that article. They just kind of say that he did it. Yeah. He went very fast for sure. He went very fast and maybe he has the KOM. I don't know. Um, I don't know if, is it, is it not Casper Asgreen who has the KOM for the moment?

259 on the Quaramont? I actually don't know that. Yeah. I read somewhere that, Asgreen was 259. I don't know if anybody is faster or not. You know, normally if you're if you're really I mean, this is a psychological war also, right. So we don't know we don't know I mean, it was impressive when Pogacar posted, I mean, over his team or anybody I don't know if it was the team or anybody else, you know, they, but the fact is that the team did film this preparation for the Quarremont and then the like semi-attack of Pogacar. That's for a reason, right? I mean, it was, it was filmed on purpose. But yeah, listen, he's in great shape. I'm, you know, I'm a Pogacar fan also. I just picked Van der Poel because

we have to pick one. And so that's why you picked Pogacar, right? It's one of both that we have to say, okay, this is the favorite. But we have a big race on our hands. I think that's the conclusion. And we don't really know who's going to win. And maybe it's not one of them. We don't know. Well, yeah, as well as we're debating Pagachar or Vanderpool, I mean, part of me thinks it probably is going to be one of them because these guys, it's just, it's such a hard race and I've gone through like year after year after year preparing for this. I have to do hard preparation for Flanders. I got to be ready for it. But just even going to the race, I went back. It's like, it's one of the least,

I guess, erratic races on the calendar, at least since they changed the course to the new course. Like in the last 10 of the 12 in the last 12 editions, 10 times the winning move went even before the Paderberg, which is the final climb, like that shows you that these moves are happening so far out. And that means it's hard for it's not like Rubé or someone like Johann von Sommer. And that was his name, Johann von Sommer. And like get off the front and just get in front of the race. It's so much harder to do at Flanders than any other race.

So you tend to just get the strongest guy wins the race. That helps Vanderpool or Pogacar because when the SHIT hits the fan on that last, you know, the last two climbs, like it's hard to imagine anyone staying with them. Before we get into who could stay with them, just one thing I want to point out. And we know like Pogacar writes his own rules. This might not matter, but to support

your Van Erpel theory, I went back through the last 15 years. Like almost everybody had a result. Every winner of Flanders had a result in nine days or fewer before Flanders. The only two examples are Caspar Askren in 2021. He didn't have a result. He had like eight to Torino TT. Still unbelievable. He believable to me. He would won that race and then Canchelara. I'm not sure Spencer. Didn't he win E3 or what? You know what? No, you're right. He won E3 that year. Because I remember looking through the things at E3. I'm just going to check us on that. I'm pretty sure he won E3. Yes, you're right. He did

win E3. So, and then Canchelara went like San Remo 2014 to Flanders. That's like not that common actually at all. So like that would be one thing about Pogacar where you're like, so you didn't race any of these warmup races and then you just happened to drop in. Like I think, I mean, it's a very, very nice stats Spencer, but I think it doesn't apply to Pogacar. Honestly, he's on another level. He could, it's, you know, he's insane. Well, yeah, you could also say like, most people don't win the

Giro and then win the tour. Yeah. He's just able to rewrite. How long ago is it that the, the defending tour, the France champion is at the start of Flanders and Drupé, you know, and on top of that in the world, have Jersey is I think, you know, it would be, I think it would be Bernardino probably. Yeah. Like it happens so rarely. It's like, ostensibly no one can do it. Yeah. Like it's almost impossible. Yeah. As we already said, many times, Spencer, these are different types of cycling. It's a

different sport, you know, to the France. I mean, you cannot imagine a guy like Jonas Wingergaard or Remco Evenepoel or Primoz Roglic to name the three other big Grand Tour riders. They can't even race Flanders and Rubé. They would get killed. Yeah, yeah. I was like, yeah, think about Jonas. Yeah, Rubé. Would not go well. No, I mean, you can say Remco could maybe race Flanders if he has a really strong team with him that brings him but still, I still have my doubts. But this is, you know, as I said in another podcast, this is war, real war. Um, you know, all the wars we have seen

in cycling right now, until now are peanuts compared to the war we're going to see tomorrow. This is the real war. Like, you know, nobody looks after anything. It's just, okay, I have to be there on that spot in, you know, the top 10. And that's just crazy. Uh, what happens in the Peloton and how strong you have to be. Um, and you know, how fearless they have to be also. So, uh, well, I'll charge the guy. He can do that. There's this, nobody of those other grand tour riders can do it.

There are very few people, but the point of my incorrect stat was there's just so few people that come out of nowhere. Like shockingly few. Like even think of Betty all in 2019. That, you know, it was like, where the heck did this guy come from? He got fourth at E3. So he was, it'd be like Nielsen palace or something winning where you're like, not what I expected, but like the signs were there that he was in very good shape prior to the race. So when you're going down this, so let's, we both agree.

Pagache or Vanderpool, like, you know, I think what it was Remco Pagache, Vanderpool have won something like 18 out of the last 19 biggest one day races with the Asper Phillips and being the only other one. So they'll, it's a good chance that it's one of those two, but if it doesn't happen that way, how does it happen and who wins? Well, you know, let's say we have to, we have to think about, uh, Visma, you know, I mean, what it's, it's unbelievable how things can change, uh, quickly. Visma was last year and the year before the best team in the spring classics. Then we had, of course, Wout Van Aert crashing out in the worst of London, huge, huge bad

luck for Visma, but still they were very dominant team. Now, until the last race in Waterg't, we didn't see that Visma. Now they're, you know, they did a really good race. Um, when was it? Was it Wednesday? I guess Wednesday. Yeah. Uh, they were impressive. You know, okay. You could say, well, you know, under pool and Pugacar and Ghana were not there, but Peterson was there, there was a lot of good teams, you know, there was a lot of good teams and all the other guys were there. They were really, really solid. They

didn't win. That's the only minus point, I would say. Because they, you know, they bet everything on on on World Monarch. And if they would have said, okay, this, this needs to be a race won by Visma and not by what one art per se, then they would always have one. But, but yeah, I mean, you know, we have to probably say on Sunday, right? They're not going to say like, Hey, come back. Yeah, for sure. You set up for sprint it out with. Yeah, yeah, for sure. You set up for sprint it out with Yeah,

yeah, for sure. I mean, he's Jorgensen is also strong. You know, he's always he's always been there. He's been their strongest rider overall until now, like both in stage races, party nice. And the classics, at least he was present in the final. Always. So Walt Van Aert already said that they're on the same level in Flanders. And so if that's going to be enough, I don't know. But as a wildcard, I have to get big Walt van Aert also because I think that he's calculated precisely when he wanted to be in top shape. I've read somewhere that last year he did kind of a little bit the same preparation,

but I would like going to altitude, but was feeling amazing in the worst of London until he crashed. And now he has changed that a little bit to do it like a week later. So he changed everything that he did last year, but he put it like a week later with the purpose of being in top shape in Flanders and Paris-Roubaix. You know, lots of people have been critical about, well, Van Aert, myself included. But let's say, you know, let's wait to judge or to have our opinion until after Paris-Roubaix, right? Because maybe he's amazing in Flanders and Roubaix. And

we all have to say, Hey, you know what? Hey, he was right. It's still Waldo von Arth. You know, I mean, he's still one of the best writers in the world. Didn't, you know, it didn't have, I'm not going to say luck on his side, but it didn't seem to work out for him. But something tells me that he's going to get better by the day after a long period on altitude. And, you know, some people are straight away really good when they get back. Some people need a week in this case. And sometimes you're good right after you come back.

And sometimes another year, it's, you need a little bit more adaptation, you know, so I'm still going to give him the credit, uh, of his, you know, qualities as a writer and, and think that he has to be able to be in contention, contention for, for the win. Um, it would need, you know, a little bit of circumstances, but hey, who knows if Van der Poel and Pogacar can't drop each other and there's some kind of hesitation, maybe Van Aert can take advantage of it at some point in the final.

Well, yeah, I'm glad you brought this up. So he's plus 1400, So you're getting like wildcard odds for maybe one of the most talented writers to ever race. So if we just, let's just start at that. That's pretty good. I went back and watched Dwarves. I know you love when people call it that. Johan logical cross Flanders your favorite across. You went to watch across. Okay. And he was, I mean, obviously the only thing anyone's going to remember is they stuff that race up like epically. You're saying how, how did this happen? But you go back and watch the guy was full line from a hundred K out.

It was really good. He's basically, I can watch the guy was full line from a hundred K out. It was really good. He's doing Dome SD quirk and then getting into the winning move, which is really hard to do. I mean, the whole, the whole sprint was flawed from the beginning. If you watch that, like think how screwed Jorgensen and Benut were, and they're leading them out. They drop them off with like two 50 K to go. And then he's doing a long sprint with palace on his wheel.

Like it'd be very hard to win that actually, especially considering he's been he was full line to that race. So we know he's not in terrible shape. I've been thinking about 2022 a lot. Like how is this race going to play out? It's kind of the forgotten Flanders to me because remember Pagache and Vanderpool got away. They don't work. This is just my vague recollection of it. I don't think they worked together that well. And then they're caught by Dylan

Van Barrel and Valentin Marois kind of awkwardly in the final straight. And then Pogacar gets like stuck, can't sprint. Vanderpool ends up winning. So it's like no harm, no foul. He easily could have lost that to one of those, the group that caught them. I think like Stefan Kuhn and Dylan Toons were there as well. You could imagine a scenario where Pogacar attacks Vanderpool falls on as you're saying, because Pogacar can't drop them. And then what happens? What like Pogacar is going to work with him to the line? Like I don't think so. Yeah. You have a chasing group. You think so? Yeah, he will. Yeah. You know, these guys, they just get around, man. I mean, if, if Pogacar, I mean, he's going to work, he's not,

he's going to let the majority of the work to Vonderpool, but he will take pulls for sure. I'm, I'm, I have no doubt about it. I mean, what is he going to do? You know, I mean, okay. You could say, well, I gamble, gamble, let some guys come back and then try to attack from five or six guys instead of trying to drop on them. Yeah. Yeah. But it's not that far, you know, from the path to the back till, uh, and there's not that much time to play, um, from the path back to the, to the finish line. Now, the Narda. Well if a group, I, you could imagine Venard being in a group behind if they catch them. Yeah. Anything, you know, anything could happen. And that's how Venard would win. group, you could imagine Van Aert being in a group behind if they catch them,

yeah, anything, you know, anything could happen. And that's how Van Aert would win. I, you, you like Van Aert, I like, I think Pedersen at plus 1000 is like, that's my just personal Van Aert pick. Like for the oddball scenario like that, that happens. I think Pedersen, also Pedersen, if you go back and watch last year's race, he was attacking from like a hundred kilometers out, you know, and George is sending in our group chat, like, what's he doing? He's an idiot. He didn't say that, but he's just like, what's he doing? He's not thinking correctly. He did not say he was an idiot. Don't aggregate that. But in my mind, you watch it, like, he knows, he knows what's coming. Like he knows he has to get in front of the race because it's like,

there's no point in staying in the group. So you could like, Patterson to me, like understands the assignment and has the fitness to even like begin to tangle with these guys. So that would be my wild card pick. Yeah. Oh, he is, and he's in great shape. You know, the, the, what he did in Gantt, we have like a most amazing, um, in Waterham, he was strong again. He was, you know, caught it behind some guys and probably didn't have a day where he was feeling 100%. But he was still there. I'm surprised though about Peterson with the form he has, the amount of races he has done, you know,

he could easily have skipped. I mean, after getting to Abraham, I think he should have skipped. Yeah, it is kind of funny. He's got the summer off oddly for reasons. Yeah, well, you know, but yeah, but he does after the classics here, he has to go he goes to the Giro. So, you know, it doesn't have that much time off. But then like, is his seasons kind of done? Right? At the Giro.

No, no, no, no. He does Giro and Vuelta. I mean, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. The Vuelta is a big deal. It's no longer like a drinking vacation. Yeah.

Without Kern Pharma. But no world is... How about that? What'd you say? The Vuelta without Kern Pharma, a keyboard Kern Pharma. I know. Yeah. We'll have to kick that to the next move plus, but that I pretty shocking actually. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Uh, yeah.

The logical choice, uh, Spencer, there's no, uh, you know, this, uh, the way these races are written now and the way these guys are performing is there's almost no surprises. You can see who's in shape. You can see who has the legs to go the distance, the difference between Waddenham and Adelbeke, for example, so Dwarsdorf-Landren and E3. And Flanders is that it's 50, 60 kilometers more, even 70 kilometers more in the case of Waddenham. 60 kilometers more, even 70 kilometers more in the case of, uh, water him. So that's obviously a total different game. Um, but it's the same guys.

And do you think like just closing thoughts before we go. So they do the Quarant twice. One is like with 50, three times. Oh, you're right. Yeah. One's like really far from the line. And then 50 ish K to go. And then about 18 ish K to go. Last time, so not last year, but the last time Pagacho did this two years ago, he attacked the second time up kind of reduce the group. Do you think that there is UAE going to do that again? Like this team lead out, they're practicing, that's not actually going to happen in the race. Is that, or are they going to do that like the first time

up with over a hundred kid ago? I don't think the first time, no, the first time, no, but I could see, I mean, I don't think Pugaccio is going to wait until the last time. Specifically because all these guys that he has had in front of him in their tryout, you know, there's Tim Wellens, there's Florian Vermeer, I don't know who the other guy was, was it Narvaez? I guess so. You know, they're not all going to be there the last time of the quarter-month. They're not, you know, they're going to be baby one guy with him. So I think that lead out is planned to be the second last time with 50 something kilometers to go. That's when he, I mean, and listen, after what we

have seen from these guys, I mean, 50 K 50 K from the finish, that's nothing. I mean, they go 70 80 K to go now. So, so yeah, I think the attack is the attack. I think though he's gonna I think he's gonna go on the on the Coppenburg. Is the Coppenburg long enough? As you said, like, no, it's very steep. You know, it's a risk. Van der Poel is super explosive, has a lot of power. Cobbles, if you look at last year, okay, it was wet, specifically on the Koppenberg, but he mastered those cobbles in a way that nobody else, I mean, everybody else looked like amateurs. I mean, Jürgensen and Pedersen were the only two guys

who barely made it to the top. Everybody else was by foot and van der Poel just smoothed over it. Now, another thing Spencer, we didn't mention, which I think we should take into account is the wind tomorrow. It's going to be windy from the start. Quite windy. I would say this is one race. I can't even begin to comprehend what direction the wind's going to be coming from because it turns so like it goes. I feel like in every direction all over the country. Not the beginning. Not the beginning. From Bruges, then they go in the same direction towards the Flemish Ardennes, what they call it. And then it's like a zigzag and elaborate, right. But

the wind is going to be strong. So we could see already some, you know, we've seen already, I hope he's learned his lesson, but Mathieu van der Poel tends to be sometimes relaxed in the back and has been caught already and then his team needed to correct the situation. Sometimes because he's in the back, sometimes because there's a crash. I don't think it's going to happen tomorrow because he's going to be very alert, especially when it's windy. But it could be surprises until they get to the hilly zone. What did you think? So at E3, he's caught behind the crash earlier in the race, and then was upset that other teams kept the pressure on. Like, were you surprised that, I mean, I would probably be upset, but I was just surprised that he even went public

with that. Yeah, well, he was, he was, yeah, he was irritated. You know, this team had to do a lot of work. They had a plan. They had some guys they wanted to, you know, had, they wanted to execute another plan, right? But there you see the, the cycling, who is Matthew van der Poel, you know, he can adapt. They had a plan with probably, you know, two or three guys who were going to lead out an attack. He just sat back, you know, followed the attack of Peterson, didn't take the initiative and that just let it happen, you know. Um, but yeah, I mean, nowadays, man, it's every single circumstance, a crash or a flat tire or

whatever. It's all considered circumstances of the race, like events that happen in the race. Races are uphill, downhill, crosswinds, cobbles, crashes, mechanicals. It's all part of it nowadays. I mean, the teams that did it, especially a group arm, IFDG, I didn't really like to see that because it's not like, okay, they had Stefan Kuhn, but it's not like they're going to win the race for sure. You know, they had a lot of riders. I think they had six out of the seven riders in the first group, but, and Kuhn is strong, but he's not in the top three, four favorites to win this race. Yeah. But we're living in extreme times. I mean,

just the last few monument winners, Vanderpoel, Pogacar, Pogacar, Vanderpoel, Vanderpoel, Phillipson, Pogacar, Evenepoel, Vanderpoel, Pogacar, Vanderpoel, Pogacar, Evenepoel, Van Barel, Vanderpoel.pool, Phillipson, Pogacar, Evanapal, Vanderpool, Pogacar, Vanderpool, Pogacar, Evanapal, Van Barel, Vanderpool. Like that's in, like you've, Vanderpool gets a flat like early in the race. Teams are going, like they're not gonna sit around because these guys are eating the sport alive.

Like there are no opportunities for anybody else. Even, even, I mean, okay, it's obviously in the final of the race, but what was it, two years ago, three years it's obviously in the final of the race, but, uh, what was it two years ago, three years ago when, uh, I've under the pool one Flanders, he was away with, with well, Bernard, when art had the flat in one of the final sections, you know, these things happen, you know, some, some journalists should have had that as a follow-up question.

They're different because, you know, it was in the final. And first of all, in Paris, it's part of the race that there you can say, okay, this is part of the race. We, if you have a flat, nobody waits. This was different. There was a crash in the, in the Peloton in the very beginning of the race. It's, that's completely different. I didn't like it. I feel like we haven't, I didn't like it. I feel like we haven't. I didn't like it.

I feel like we haven't mentioned this, but this is if Vanderpoel wins this. So he's tied for the most Flanders wins of all time. This snuck up on me. If he wins this, he has the record. And this is his career record at this race, his first, first time, fourth, second, first, second. So first time doing it, fourth, first, second, first, second, first. That's his career record at this race. Do you want to hear? I went, this guy's pretty good. Eddie Merckx. This is his first six times. DNF third, ninth, first, third, 76th. So like that's, he's the best ever at racing Flanders, at least through his first six attempts. Pagaccio

not too bad himself, fourth and first, but he's really good at this race. He won three times. One of them was, was outside of like, he actually won a lot later than he took him. Yeah. I'm standing with Boonen like 24th, 25th, 25th, first, first 12th, 17th, and then he wins. He kind of has that second era that he won his third in. But Vanderpult is the best writer. That's what's weird to go back to the beginning, why he's not the favorite. He's the best.

That's why I pick him. He has the best track record ever in this race. It's not terrible logic. And to have your first, your worst ever result before to be the best rider at this race, tour of Flanders, no experience crashing, coming back from far. Like everybody thought he was out of the race. He comes back and he finishes fourth. So yeah, that was a disaster race for me. he got fourth in his first time doing

it. He's obviously a little bit, maybe a little bit older because he had a kind of a career before that. But yeah, it's a bit like if like Lance Armstrong was at his peak and you're like, he's won seven tours and he's racing Pagachar. It's almost like a made up situation where it's like, okay, Pogacar, let's create the world's best Flemish rider, race rider go and like, let's see what happens. Like it's weird to me that this is actually going to happen

tomorrow. Yeah. But, and I was going to say one more thing about Vanderpol. Oh, if you noticed, so they switched the Pirelli tires. This was like last year. Team seems to have a lot of flats, has not caught up to Vanderpoel yet. Am I reading too much into this or are they suffering a lot of flats? I don't know.

I don't know. Yeah. They switched to Pirelli this year, actually. I think it's the first year. Was it just this year? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

That's even worse because they actually do seem to have more flats this year? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I, um, that's even worse. Cause they actually do seem to have more. I remember last year they were on Victoria. Um, yeah. Yeah. I don't know. Um, wonder what, uh, tires he's gonna, I'm probably, he's gonna, he's probably gonna ride 30 millimeter tires. Um, you know, the tendons now, the trend is that they go, they're going wider. We're going to see 32 millimeter tires tomorrow. Also probably in Paris, even riders on 34 millimeter tires. Um, but I think wonder pool is on 30. Um, why, why, why, I guess, like, what's the advantage of a 30 over,

cause 34 is probably faster on the cobble sections. Is it just that much slower on the road? For Paris-Roubaix probably better because there's a lot of cobbles and it's flat. You know Flanders there's less cobbles in terms of distance kilometers and it's uphill. I think the wider tires actually compensate. That's great for a guy like Pogacar compared to, you know, because he is probably 10 kilos lighter than, you know, Van Aert and Van der Poel. And these wider tires, especially for Paris-Roubaix, are an advantage. It compensates for, you know, usually you would say normally Paris to bear was you have to be 72 kilometers, kilos plus to win.

The white tires kind of correct that a little bit. It gives you more comfort and it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, that's an advantage for Pogacar in party to bed compared to the usual 10 kilo kilogram heavier guys who normally he would not be able to follow on the cobbles. See, it's pretty interesting, Johan. I don't think I've heard anyone say that, but it is. When you're on these wide, like I was on 42s today on some rough Texas roads and you're just kind of like, it takes, you know, cause you're like, when you're on really rough roads and you're on so much, it's almost like you're stopping every, like you're killing your momentum.

So a bigger rider can just like, keep powering through. I wouldn't be two millimeter tires for party to bed, but that's maybe a bit too big, but I would be on 55s if I was riding on those cobblestones. Give me the biggest. I ever, if I ever do the ground Fondo party to bear something, uh, the sport thief, I'm going with my gravel bike with 42 millimeter tires minimum and you know, ideal tire pressure that you're kind of comfortable and you know, like floating over the cobbles. But anyways, we're in a different.

I've been watching like the recon videos of the Quermont and I'm surprised how rough it is. Like I would definitely be on a gravel bike. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah Yeah, maybe did the last note all I have on this race is the Quermont though It's just I think that that's where Pogacar and I do think you're right He's gonna attack the second time up with the team because it's that second bit That's not it's like that false flat like Like to me, that's the only way, that's the only place you can really get away from Vanderpool. I guess we'll see.

I don't see where from the, where Pogacar can drop from the pool. Honestly, I can't see it. It's also possible this race comes down to a mechanical. That's true. I mean, these guys are so closely matched. So many things can happen. Not just the mechanical crash, you know, that doesn't even have to be the rider himself. Crash before them, you know, like they're stuck all of a sudden, uh, whatever,

you know, it's, it can happen, you know. All right. Well, we will let you and Christian rest up for your big race tomorrow. Yeah. But it's not with that is not tour of Flanders. Not tour of Flanders. It's a cadet race here in the, in yeah, the north of Spain. How's the weather? Today was okay. You know, they had a little bit of rain, but tomorrow they predict a pretty good weather. So should be fine. Oh, nice. Yeah. I hear North of Spain. I think, I think rain.

So that's good. I can have rain. Well, thanks, Johan. And, Oh, if you're in the U S and you just listened to this whole thing, you're thinking, okay, this is all great guys, but how do I watch this? It's on flow sports, the flow app. You're going to have to bite the bullet and buy that flow subscription. I hate to break it to everybody. Um, but I'm excited to watch it and have a good evening, Johan. And we, you'll, I guess you won't be on it, but the guys, there will be a show tomorrow right after

the race with some collection of live show at Melojanes. Yeah, that's a good, that's a first for the move. I actually was talking to the GM of the, of Mela Johnny's. I thought it was the first. He said they had a lot of show at the time. They had one. They had one. Yeah, that's true. That's true. Yeah. The forgotten tapes. I forgot. Maybe it's something we need to look in for the future to do with, uh, you know, I'm not going to say regularly, but now and then, like, you know, for precise races, I think it's a good idea. I think it's a great idea. So if you're in Austin, come on down. MJ's going to be open,

I think like 8 a.m. for the, I'll be there watching the race and then the guys will come later for the show. But our producer, Gabriel thought you and I live show the move plus at some point, Johan. We got to look into that. Yeah. Why not? Why not? London. We'll think about it.

All right. Well, have a good evening and I'm excited for the race. I think it's going to be great and we'll see if our predictions are correct. Okay. Thanks Spencer. Speak soon. Alright, bye.