THEMOVE - Why is Tadej Pogačar so Much Better Than Everyone Else? | Il Lombardia Preview | OŪTCOMES

Episode Date: October 10, 2025

Johan Bruyneel and Spencer Martin share their thoughts on Tadej Pogačar and UAE's recent run of dominance before breaking down the course, contenders, and likely outcome of Saturday's Il Lombardia, the final major race of 2025. They preview the third showdown in three weeks between Remco Evenepoel and Pogačar, how Isaac del Toro could factor into the final outcome, and discuss how it might unfold, along with who offers the best betting value. Become a WEDŪ Member Today to Unlock VIP Access & Benefits: https://access.wedu.team Caldera Lab: Upgrade your routine with Caldera Lab and see the difference for yourself. Go to https://CalderaLab.com/THEMOVE and use THEMOVE at checkout for 20% off your first order Hims: Start your free online visit today at https://hims.com/themove for your personalized hair loss treatment options. Results vary. Based on studies of topical and oral minoxidil and finasteride. Prescription products require an online consultation with a healthcare provider who will determine if a prescription is appropriate. 

Paul Seychas is 19. Isaaco Toro is 21. Isarto is better than Pagachar was at the same age at one day racing. And he seems to get better every race. If I, everyone should be freaked out about this guy. He is incredible. Paul Sehoss 19 years old. He is the best one day racer I could ever find at 19.

And the quality of races he's doing. He's seriously good. Hi, I'm Spencer Martin along with Johann Berniel. And this is Outcomes. Outcomes is for information on entertainment purposes. Only nothing in this podcast should be considered. financial advice please gamble responsibly and if you or someone you know has a gambling problem seek help from a professional resource hosts and guests may have financial interests in the

bets discussed past performance does not guarantee future results everybody welcome back to outcomes i'm spencer martin i'm here with joan brineal we are predicting tomorrow's year lombardia one day race 253 kilometers long sorry 241 kilometers long the last it's not even the last it's not the last world tour race the year it's the last let's call it significant major race of the It's the last time we'll see these big stars racing before 2026. And then after we do that, we'll get into a little bit of news items, kind of do a miniature the move plus at the end. But Johan, the key stats for this race, 241 kilometers long.

It's the only monument, I believe, that changes courses. It flip-flops between coming in Como and finishing in Bergamo every year. So some years it starts in Bergamo, finishes in Como. sometimes the other way around. I believe this is the year it starts in Como, finishes in Bergamo, kind of the easier route, even though it's not that easy. It's about 4,600 meters of climbing.

The final climb, the final major climb crests about 31 kilometers from the finish, which is where Bagachar attacked the last time he won this two years ago, and there's a bump about a kilometer before the finish. The favorites are, this is ridiculous. I've never seen anything like this in a one day, race. This is from Unibet in the UK. It actually might be hard to find a book that will take money on this race. I actually wonder as a macro trend if it's becoming harder to find books to take money on race as Bagachar's doing because he's winning everything. But

Pagotcha is the favorite at minus 750, meaning you have to bet $750 to win $100,000 to win a $100. Remko Evanipal 2nd at plus 650, Isaac Beltora plus 1400, Tom Pickock plus 1,600, Adam Yates, plus 2,800, Paul Seychas plus 2,800, Primos Roglitz, plus 3,300, Mateo Schummoza, plus 4,000. Oscar Anli, is this one eye circled, plus 30,000. Keep an eye on him. 30,000 or 3,000? It's 30,000.

I don't know if that's data entry error or what is going on there. But, Johan, how do you think this is going to play out? I think we already know what you're going to say, and who do you think is going to win? watcher is going to win spencer um i don't think there's any other scenario the only thing that can happen is well first he gets sick overnight and doesn't start it's always a possibility uh or he has a crash and crashes out you know mechanical i don't think will stop him um especially i mean even in the final i mean normally if he gets a mechanical in the final he's going to be by himself or maybe with one or two other guys, the car's going to be there.

So, yeah, I'm afraid that Pogacar is going to win this, the way he's been riding since Montreal, you know, after the tour. But he's a lot better now than when he was in Montreal. And it looks like, you know, I mean, he won the worlds. He won the European championships, man, impressively. you know, reappeared in Italy, in, what was it, Trevali Varanese, won there also. Plus, you know, with the team they're bringing, I don't think there's any other scenario possible than Bogacha wins this race. Yeah, I'm going to have to agree with you.

Even at minus 750, I actually can't find a book in the U.S. that will take this. I would bet on them. I think we'll circle back on key things from these races we didn't cover at the end of this. but European championships they ice Belgium isolated Pagachar I'm picking Pagachar by the way that's my official pick they isolate Pagachar it almost

seemed to help him because they isolated him they made the race hard and then he said thank you very much and then attacked them but that's what we already knew that Johan right we knew that he could win on a climb well Trey Valet rolls around on Tuesday he says watch this and

he lets a move go up the road with Quinn Simmons and then he says Oh, I got my, got my boys back. I'm not on Slovene anymore. I have the strongest team in the world in UAE. Hey, Isaac Deltore, I want to pull me up to those guys. He pulls them up. Deltore gets to the front.

I don't know why. They let Pagacha go to the back, unmarked, and on a descent. He just attacks. I don't even know if he really attacked. He just kind of accelerated. Once he had a few meters, it's done. Because no one's going to help you pull him back. And he rode away on the downhill.

Like he's finding new ways to win. To me, that was one of the most. impressive wins of the season for him. And if that's not bad enough for everyone else at this race, Isaac Del Toro plus 1,400, he would probably be my second pick. Yeah, he is the second strongest guy for the moment. He's also, by the way, since the last few races, is now also officially number two on the UCI ranking.

I think he passed Remko. He's the second best rider in the world right now, points wise behind Bogacha, who has almost the double amount of points than the second. Wow. Yeah. And so he wins the day before

Euro championships. He's not eligible to race European championships, obviously. Wins at Giro de Amelia. Super impressive because Tom Piccock attacked at the bottom of that final climb looked like he had it. And Del Toro wasn't, I thought he was having a bad day, but it's because he wasn't even panicking. He just bridged up, spoke to him in the sprint,

wins the Grand Piamonte. Yesterday looks like, as you say, the second best rider coming into this race. And here's a, if you had to pick a rider, I almost think a wild card is almost a waste of time and money for this race. But if you had to pick the podium, Johan, who would you pick to finish behind Pagachar? I'm going to say Pugachar, Del Toro, and Posse Chas.

I like it. Even if he's 19, but he's an incredible. form, did the great world championships, was third in the European championships. Man, that guy's good. Plus, you know, I mean, Remko is, I think Remko's going to be there. Pitca is going to be there, but they are going to be carrying the pursuit. And Seych is going to be able to kind of look around a bit, do a bit of work, not too much. So I'm going to pick him as number three.

I think Del Toro gets second tomorrow. I, so my podium, I have Teddy Pagachar, Isaac Altoro. I agree with you on that. And Paul Seishas is very good. I did a little deep dive on both these guys. Paul Seishas is 19. Isaac Torto is 21. Isaac Torto is better than Pagachar was at the same age at one day racing.

And he seems to get better every race. Everyone should be freaked out about this guy. he is incredible. Paul Seychas, 19 years old, he is the best one-day racer I could ever find at 19 and the quality of races he's doing. He's seriously good. But I can't believe I'm doing this. I'm going to pick Remko Evanapole when you're not. I think Remko is on some of the best one-day form I've ever seen from him, even though he's not winning. No, he's definitely in great form, yeah. Yeah, finishing second. I think he's going to get third behind he's going to get a little

bullied by del Toro. I think I think the conclusion of Remko's two championships, right? So the world's and the European championships is that he must be on incredible form because his base must be, you know, he gets knocked down, like big time knockdown. And he recovers and he keeps going and he's still really solid and rides away from everybody else. And there's no reason why he can't do that tomorrow in Lombardia. So if someone wasn't going, also, we were, we were crunchy numbers before we recorded. Pagachar has done a total of this is just, I've counted by hand since 2019, 379 total race days.

107 wins. That's nearly one in three races he's winning. So 28% win rate. Maybe it doesn't sound impressive, but think of all the sprint stages at Grand Tour. It is impressive. It is impressive, Spencer. It's, it's crazy impressive. It's, I've seen somewhere, not.

I can't find it anymore. So I don't know, I don't know how they accounted for the amount of races, but it was a comparison. You know, we always have this eternal debate, you know, Eddie Merckx versus Pogacar, who's the greatest? You know, I've always said that for the moment, Eddie Merckx is the greatest because also we look at his total career and Pogacar is, I mean, could we say he's in the middle of his career. I mean, probably age-wise, yes, maybe mentally not, but it is no signs of slowing down.

If he has another two years like this, he is definitely on the Merck's way. But this stat was actually impressive. And it's a pity I don't have the numbers. But it's something in the range of Merck's as a professional cyclist. I mean, back then, they graced a lot more, right? And there was less riders and there was more condensed there was european sport you know it was belgium france italy the netherlands spain a bit of germany that's it um and now they're coming from all over the place and they raised less but merks did about a thousand races i think and he had 200 and something wins uh i think it was about 20 percent win rate uh as a pro and the other style i saw and was something like pogacha did 200 something racist and uh he had won how many wins he has on

107 and it was it that was i mean i've seen somewhere something like 39% winning so maybe maybe it's just that they take out the stages they might have filtered out sprints and stuff it break i don't know i don't know i don't know i i mean it's it's difficult but yeah and spencer you know i'm looking at Pogacar's dominance, you know, I personally, I cannot remember at least for as long as I've been actively involved in cycling. You know, I do remember Merck's from my childhood, but I wasn't cycling yet. So I did pay obviously less attention. But since I've started racing and then became a professional, then was a team manager and team director, I have not, I cannot remember such a dominance.

a rider like Pogacar where basically every race this rider starts. Would it be fair to say that whenever it was his course, like taking out sprint stages, there's probably like a 90% chance that that rider would win? Yeah, I need to do a deep dive on this. You're giving me a lot of good ideas for the office. I mean, it's like a feeling. It's a feeling that I have. You know, I mean, it's not obviously statistically it's not correct.

but man you could though filter out all the just like his target races and i'm trying to think off the top of my head how many in the last two years three races that he didn't win four and he was on the podium on those races yes yeah yeah it's crazy yeah well you have this i mean there's a few stages of the tour this year that like were bubble you know the guys broke away and they didn't catch them. Yeah. But if you really think about beaten, it would be, it would be Roubaix, San Remo, tour to France stage 11 last year.

Yeah. San Remo last year. And that's it? I think so the last two years. I think that's it. Crazy. Yeah. Yeah.

I mean, even the shocking thing to me is, how much better he is getting. So 2019, we talked about that win rate, career, almost 30%. 12% win rate in 2019. You're like, well, that's pretty good for first year pro. Wow. 2020, 21%. That's already historically good.

2020, 2020, 21%. 2021, 2021, 2021%. Too many 21st. 22, 29%. 2023, 34%. 2024, 43%. This is all race starts, including nothing breakaway days and sprints days. 2025, 39%.

So he's at a dip. He's in a slump season. He needs to win tomorrow. It's going to bring him to 40%, I guess. Let me just pencil in a win there. Yeah, yeah. Yeah. And I guess that's it.

No, he's not racing anymore after that. I would hope not. I mean, at least not officially, we do know. we do know there's going to be one of those exhibition races in Andorra where is it so it's Jonas Bogachar Remko and who else it's del Toro Jonas from Kotate I believe yeah yeah those four race will have like a four man race and like you know like going to be a time trial and it's going to be different short events but um you know you know You know, those are, that's not a real race.

Let's say it's more for the spectators and the entertainment. So let's take a quick break. And when we come back, I want to ask you, if he doesn't win this, how does that happen? And then we're going to get into a few other topics before we take off. All right. All right. Everybody, this episode is brought to you by Caldera Lab. Let's be honest, cycling is not great for your skin.

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Featured products include compounded drug products, which the FDA does not approve or verify for safety effectiveness or quality, prescription required. See website for full details, restrictions, and important safety information. Okay, Johan. It's Saturday, tomorrow, where we're sitting down to do the move, which we'll be doing right after the race, with a special guest. Finally, we got someone to join us. And Taday has not won.

How did this happen? Crash. Crash. Can't think of anything else. Can't think of anything else. You know, I mean, tactically, you could say tactically, how could they, how could they, I mean, it's potentially possible that. Pogachar doesn't win and Deltoro wins.

If Deltoro goes early on those, what is it, the Paseo del Crochetta or Pazzo del Crocheta after 165K, potentially he could go there and then basically, that would be the right thing to do strategically as a team. You try to have the other team's work. So if you have your second best rider, who by the way is recently also the second best rider in the world. It's not a bad situation to play tactically. The Toro Lee takes off and other teams start organizing and they can't catch him.

Bogacha is not going to write himself unless he's 100% sure he can get away by himself, which I think he's 100% sure he can do that. But then would he actually do that? Would he actually do that? And so I personally think it's probably saying, for you each to just do a traditional traditional scenario just keep it together for as long as you can or at least keep the breakaway within the limits they have a very very very strong team by far i would say the uae the uae team lineup for lombardy is twice as strong as the next strongest team i think yeah so if you have that it's it's you know there's not much tactics involved you just right i mean they did that already in the past they you know and if you

they can keep del Toro and who they have Micah, they have Sivakov, they have Adam Yates, they have Jay Vine, they have Dominovac. I mean, that's, you know, that is a ridiculous team. Those guys could all be leaders on other teams in this race. Except Novak, but all the others can be. I don't know, there might be a few teams that Novak could be a leader of. But, you know, I mean, to play it safe, I would, I would. you know, uses the traditional strategy, you know, cycling, cycling law 101, you know, just control.

And then as long as Pogacar has teammates, he just stays where he is. And when, you know, when his last teammate is done, he goes. And by then, I mean, if his last teammate would be del Toro, who else will be there? It's going to be Remko and Pitcock and Sejas. That's it. I mean, nobody else can be there. The only thing I'm struggling with is, so Paso della croquette, crocetta, if del Toro attacks there, he's so good, it's hard for me to imagine that Remco and Pitcock don't follow him.

Uh-huh. They have to. And then in that case, Bagotcha has to follow them. Yeah. Yeah. So then you're in a situation where Vergachar is probably winning. And I do, I'm just trying to think of why he doesn't win this. I could imagine, I'm just trying to imagine myself in rage that he doesn't win.

It would be something like that happens. Del Toro gets away. Pagachar bridges up on the ganda. Let's del Toro win and you're saying, no, what are you doing? I have money on this. Not a monument, but I don't think that's going to happen. And not only just a monument, but Pagachar is one win away from tying Fausto copy for most wins.

Lombardy in his career. He has four, another win. We give him five, and not just five, but five in a row. He's won the last four editions of this. So, which I don't believe Fausto Koppi did as I pulled this up. So I think that's just too much to risk. Yeah. Yeah.

And then you have to ask yourself the question, do these guys actually pay attention to these stats? We are all over. Do they actually care? Does it count for them? Yeah, I mean, but, you know, I mean, Lombardy is, it's a monument to give it away to a teammate. That's a bit too much. You know, I mean, I remember, I mean, this was in Belgium when, when Walt Vonard gave Can't Beaver Gamaway, which is not a monument to Christophellaport.

And it was, I mean, it was unbelievable in Belgium. Now, not that Pogacha cares about this. But that's also a way he doesn't win, is that he gets away with a teammate and he gifts it to a teammate. I don't see it happening, but it's not impossible. I don't, I would be, I would be beside myself. But I do think that that is the number one way he finishes this race uninjured and does not win is he gifts it to a teammate. Yeah. But if he's not gifting Trey Vallet, like he's not gifting this.

Another scenario could be, I mean, you know, I think until two years ago, probably people were still considering that as a potential scenario is that he goes too early and he doesn't make it because he runs out of energy. That's not happening. No, no. And I guess it did happen this year at Amstel, but the thing is these harder courses, it's easier to stay away. Yeah, but I think Amstall was a special, a special situation because he came of Flanders and Roubaix, which are hard races and are completely different way of cycling. And he got into Amstall kind of, kind of a bit the same as when he came from Canada back to Kali and, you know, was caught in the time trial. Not exactly the same, but still, you know, I, yeah.

I mean, he's not running out of energy. I've forgotten the stat. People did not give him enough credit for that because almost no one ever wins Roubae and Amstel in the same year in the years that they have but each other. Because I think George talked about it when we did our post Amstel show. You're just beat up. You're physically beat up. It's people made a lot about that.

He didn't win, he was second to Newbeah. Second. I mean, I think Wow, Van Arts, one of the only people to even finish. top five in both. And Pagachar was second in both of them. That's really impressive. He won Flanders, second at Rubei, second Amstel, and then wins Lijesh. Flesh for Lone and Liesch.

Yeah, so he didn't end up recovering. But the thing is you're going to, let's say that happens, you're going to have Del Toro sitting, if Evanapole and Pitcock are chasing, Del Toro is sitting right with them. You probably don't want to do that. Yeah, yeah, I think it's going to mean, you know, there's no reason why there would not be a different scenario. You know, we saw in the world, Sun the road racing, Kigali, it was him and then the rest, and Remko was the best of the rest. Euro championships, same thing. It's the same riders.

It's the same course more. I mean, it's harder. You know, it's going to be the same situation, Spencer. I can't see that change in a couple of weeks. And I'm just trying to anticipate questions people might have. So why don't, when Pagacca attacks, why don't people behind just chase hard, Johan? There's many of them. There's one of Pagachara.

Why can't they catch him? I mean, why can't they catch them? I think first of all, first of all, I mean, the only one who is, you know, once Pagcha has the gap. not usually it's 40 minutes 40 seconds to a minute that's the time that these guys need to take their breath to recover and try to find their speed again mostly it's been remco right so ramco got you know beaten down and then he kind of recovers physically but especially also mentally and then he keeps going and it stays around the minute but then remcoe who wants to arrive with remco because everybody knows that on the next climb ramco is going to try to drop them

Which he's done the last three weeks or whatever. And which he will try to do again. So, yeah. I mean, it's, I mean, listen, it's a dominant performance of Polachar. Race after year, race after race. But man, how frustrating must it be. I mean, people say it's boring. I don't find it boring.

I enjoy. I enjoy it. But how frustrating must it be for all these other writers. teams like okay what are we going to do today what should we do to try and have a win um nothing works because if you look around i mean you look look after bogachar there's del tortu there's j vine there's adam yates there's you know all these other guys not much not much they can do no and then you get you get you get people racing for second because you're so dominant yeah so they're not going to pull also i don't feel like this gets

talked about enough that the race is so hard before his attack comes yeah there's no one has anything left to chase with like they're on their knees by the time the attack comes um on that topic european championships any critiques for belgium there what did you think of those tactics i mean yes yes and no i would say they were a bit overconfident Um, the only thing I could see they could have done differently was that, you know, they, they made the race hard until Pugaccha was isolated, which is, of course, you know, it's an objective, but then, then, you know, you're spending so much of your guys to isolate him, that it's basically Pogacar against one or two or three other leaders from other countries or

other teams. What does he do? He goes. And, you know, I think the mistake the Belgians have made, if I, you know, I mean, it's easy to say it afterwards. But once, once there was this group and there was four Belgians, I think, four Belgians and Pogac was by himself and there was still a few French guys, they, I mean, they kept pulling. They shouldn't have kept pulling. They should have tried to send somebody, yeah, you know, like a French. And then would it have mattered?

I don't think so, Spencer and Pogacha would have attacked anyway and dropped the guys who were up front, you know. But that's the only thing they could have tried differently. You know, there was not much they could do. You know, I saw, I mean, Remko got second, say shots got third, who was for Skaroni, fourth, you know. But, and I saw Remko, I mean, he was obviously, you know, Remko is, if he doesn't win, he's not happy, you know, and that's fair. I mean, he wants to win, but if you're second in both the world championships and the European championship behind Pugachar, you have to accept that that's the situation, unfortunately. But Remko said, yeah, you know, there's progress because it's the first time I can follow his attack. I mean, yeah, okay, you did it for one minute.

it was probably like a it was a seven-kilometer climb when when today attacked was maybe 5k to go there was still at least 12 minutes to go in that effort and you did it for one minute so that's not really following an attack I mean he tried to follow but he kind of blew up a bit the proof is that Seychs came back to him and took a pool straight away So, but on the other hand, also credits to Remko that he's able to recover from this and then keep going and then, you know, keep the distance because from the moment he had 40 seconds and went to a minute and then it kind of was fluctuating. So I'm asking myself, okay, is, is it because Remko is at a really high level? And he probably is. But it's also probably because Pogacar now by now has figured out exactly how he has to manage that minute gap. because it seems like once he has that minute, he is completely in control of his effort.

And that's what, in my opinion, is so frustrating. You know, obviously the riders don't see that during the race, but they watch these images afterwards and they say, what is going? I mean, this guy is completely in control. He's not dying, you know? You know, I'm glad we didn't do a show on Eurochamps because I was losing my mind. Because do you know how many times in the commentary I heard, isolate pagachar who gives a shit if he's isolated they've done this they've tried to do the same

thing in the tour i mean have look i mean the belgians did what they and you know you have to use your guys what they're what they're there for right but this might do the same thing in in in the tour to great success you know i mean every time every single time pogatchar saw okay hey there's no UAE left. Okay, I'm going. And it was only Jonas, who was there. But let's say Pagachar was not isolated. What was it? What would his teammates be doing? They would have been on the front doing exactly what Belgium is doing. Exactly. And Johan do so to isolate him, this is what drives me the craziest. So how do you isolate someone? You make the race hard. If you make the race hard, who is that helping? The strongest rider in the race. And you're hurting everybody else. That's

Like, yeah, I don't, I should, there should be a flowchart. Is Tata or his team on the front, if not get off the front? The thing is, the thing is also, Spencer, what else can they do? That's the question. What else can they do? Let UAE or whatever, or Lough UAE or Slovenia in the championships do all the work. Then it's basically everybody's waiting for Pogaccha to attack and they're going to get dropped anyways. or have a negative race

and let a breakaway go and they can't catch them anymore also not likely to happen. And I understand why this doesn't happen and I wouldn't do it either. But once he's isolated, if everyone gets off the front and they say, all right, Tada, you figure this out.

And people are attacking and the only person to ever respond is Tade Pagachar, you will beat him. That won't happen, obviously, because you'd have to sit back and allow other people to attack without responding yourself yeah yeah yeah um we yes we yes we should we'll probably be having the same conversation tomorrow but that's that's what's been so impressive about his dominance like he's been

part-time in with slovenia and you get to see him isolated you're not going to see him isolated yeah with ua like it's yeah well i mean and also spencer you know i mean i've seen you know people start to say okay the dominance obviously starts to annoy people and it's always the same thing and understand on the one hand and then be you know there's also there starts to be a certain uh you know doubts and questions how can somebody be so much stronger than the rest and i've said this already many times on several shows you know i mean this guy from the moment he was 17 was really a super talent and and you know i got information now really reliable information that and we have I mean it's easy to see also if you look at

videos and pictures and the two two first two to France he won let's say the first one against Rogledge in that time in the last time trial you could say okay you know he it was a bit of a surprise but he was there he was second so for a reason you know it's not like they were just dragging him around and he had he lost time early in that race with a flat tire too. Yeah, but he got it back. He got it back over the parachute because I think they didn't really take him seriously. But anyways, coming to my point, the first two times he won the tour, if you look at the way

he won and the way he was physically, and I have now have the confirmation, which we suspected already. This guy was not really optimized. He was not completely living a life of a top professional rider in the sense that you know, you can see he was a few kilos heavier. Apparently his training structure was not super good. Nutrition was off. And he wanted to it twice. And then, you know, he lost the third time to Jonas, in my opinion, because, of a mistake he made in that stage where they attacked him, you know, with Roglidge and Jonas on the way to the Gallibier. The fourth time he didn't win, Jonas was a lot better.

And also he came back from a wrist injury, the man, since then, this is different. I mean, the more, I think, I mean, it's been public, you know, that they changed trainers and or Bogacha changed trainers. does a lot more in nutrition-wise and man it's he he stepped up his level uh to his maximum potential now but thinking that he won the two or twice being a i'm not going to say a semi-professional but not 100% professional that that's actually scary to see that he was able to win the two or twice under with that kind of efforts or that kind of dedication i mean it's it i'm going to try to find pictures and we can we can insert them here i have pictures of him when he was 19 years old and he

did the tour of spain in his first year professional and he finished third in the gc and won three stages i have these pictures we're going to publish them here and then we'll put a picture next to it from the way pogacha is now and you will see the transformation uh physically uh and it it tends to happen right when when a big young talent turns pro they're not completely formed they're not completely defined he was still young he was 19 so um but now man this is this is just the killing machine it's crazy yeah i know exactly what you mean about the foelta i like i rewatch that race recently and his physical differences do stand out a lot

and also it's impressive that a lot of people come along and have initial success like that I'm thinking of a certain Frenchman who had a big tour de France win when he was young and then just never take the step up you know it's just like well this is pretty sweet

when we be like this pagachar is what happens if someone keeps improving what someone has a question in the chat that's pretty good Michael and it's a sister question to the one I asked so if Remko is better than Pagotcha in the time trial

Why is it so challenging for Remko to catch Pagachar when Pagachar attacks solo in the road race? Completely different effort, completely different. Time trial is very consistent, always the same. There's no ups and downs in your rhythm, in your power output. You're constant. And Remko is a master at that. In a race, in a normal road race, it's completely different. There's attacks, there's the slow down, and you go over your level.

limiting and you have to follow the peloton right i mean you can't be in control of your effort um and and on top of that um i think remco uh that's why he's such a great time to all this is the master at the constant effort but he tends to have a bit more problems with accelerations which obviously pogatch is completely the opposite he can accelerate and he can maintain that acceleration and actually can also sprint. Remko has improved, but he's definitely not at the same level when there's changes in rhythm as Bogacha. And also, you know, if there's a few of those already before the real effort

where basically the critical point, let's say, this climb, everybody identifies, okay, this is where it's going to happen. And there's been a few times before already you've been in the red or close to the red. Some riders recover amazingly from that during the race and others don't. Yeah, I think just a few points. I think that's all true. And what hanging out with Bradley Wiggins and Lance Armstrong taught me, I don't understand why it is, but time trialing standalone races is very different than

like just being good time trialing and a grand tour. But we should note, Remko is not on his time trial bike in a road race. And that man is very fast on a time trial bike, freakishly fast. Also, by the time Pagotcha attacks Remko, I don't think people on TV recognize this, especially if you're just dropping into a race. they've been racing for four hours or more and there's that much more load in their legs. That's very different than a time trial where most of these efforts are 20 to 45 minutes versus a multi-hour long effort on after riding for multiple hours at a very hard pace.

So there are like factual differences between the two things. Yeah. And then also Spencer, I keep coming back to the same thing. You know, we've been talking about this. already several times and I don't mean I just pulled up here because we've analyzed this or basically I'm going off Strava but you know it looks like I'm blown away by the the energy expenditure I mean basically the calories that Bogachar burns through a race or a stage compared to many of his arrivals. whereas he's on the front he does sometimes as breakaways of 30 40 50 kilometers and he still spends on average 20 to 25 percent less than his closest rivals so here for example i have uh this is uh which what's the race he won trevali varinesse right so he did he did a hundred

ninety six kilometers uh 43 average three thousand four hundred calories now let's take uh a rider like for example there's a bunch of riders here um just i don't know if he finished ben healy did ben healy finish let's see here we go ben healy finished the race uh so pogacha had 3,500 ben healy 4,150 interesting it's 600 calories more and and and he's been in the wheels man hilly and pogacha was on off the front uh and it's with it's with everything everybody the same, you know, and I often keep an eye on it. And I know it's not exactly scientific and it's not exact numbers. But, you know, if you go off Strava, it's an estimate, right, based on what you weigh, the power you put out, heart rate maybe, and, you know, whatever other parameters. But the Strava formula is basically the same. So if you measure off the same, I think it's not precise, but it's a pretty good. it. I think there's another rider here. I think this guy was more or less in the front, Tobias Johanesson. He was, I think, here. So Pogaccia, so Johannesson was I think

5th, 6th, 7th. So basically was in there, came back at the last moment, sprinted, 1,000 calories more than Pogacchar, 4,605 calories, which means that Pogacar, when everybody is close to their limit, Bogacha are still cruising. And he's clear, very clearly has an efficient pedal stroke. And also Spencer, sorry to interrupt, I think he's also compared to these other, his direct rivals

with maybe the exclusion of Tom Pitcock. I think he's also the best in the bunch. I was just going to say that. Yeah. You know, you can find a position when you watch it. You know, he does not, he does not spend any unnecessary energy, which obviously all adds up yep i mean you just watch the you can just take screenshots of the peloton and you'll see remco is putting out a ton more power because he's just in a less advantageous

position uh we got a few juicy topics coming up but before we do that tray valet you mentioned it why why are we doing this johan so let's just let's roll play you're in the breakaway at that race the best writer in the world comes up to the breakaway is a very good racer where would you put yourself obviously on his wheel but he had he had del Toro pulling right because del Toro I think del Toro went after was it Victor Lafay I think from Descartesne there I don't remember who it was and was Quinn Simmons I think was it Quinn Simmons yeah Quinn Simmons was the strongest guy in that move. Yeah.

Yeah. And so Pogacha comes. And then, yeah, I mean, you know, it's also, it was a bit, I think it was a bit coming together of circumstances. But he got away on downhill. And there was only one rider who could bring him back. It was Quinn Simmons because he does have the power to match that effort on the flat or on the downhill. But then, you know, you have the hesitation behind. Of course, Del Toro's not going to work, not going to work.

Lafay was probably on the limit. And Quinn Simmons, you know, at some point had to look back and say, hey, guys, I'm not going to do all the work. And, you know, he was gone. Is no one radioing up? Quinn, Tade is coming up. Get on his wheel. I just, I just, I felt like Chris Horner. I was like, look at these knuckleheads.

You could see it coming before it happened. I think, I think, you know, Trevali Valenaise, was probably the most tactical win of Bogachar rather than pure legs and just riding away from everybody. It was more savvy, I think. Yeah. And maybe they were distracted by Del Toro because the big narrative was, oh, Bogotra is going to give this one to Del Toro. But still, man, get on his wheel, folks. If that is there, get on his wheel. Remko is actually getting really good at this. He's improving quite a lot at just parking himself right on that wheel. So we're going to do Derek G last because that's the most interesting one.

Shram, we talked about this I felt like for hours on end in June, but the UCI had some, we'll just try to sum this up. They banned certain gear ratios over a certain amount. Essentially, the only way to hit that ratio was to have a 10 tooth sprocket on the back. The only company that has a 10 tooth sprocket. this to try to lower speeds on the sense. Yeah. So Spencer, so basically, I mean, it was not a rule yet, but so the UCI was trying to impose

a restriction on the gears and they were going to run a test in, what is it, Tudigwang Chi or something? Yeah, which is the last year's the season. Which is a race that they own or they organize. You know, it could have been a test. I don't think it would have been a real test because it's not dangerous there. They're racing on highways. So nothing's going to happen.

No matter how fast they go, plus the peloton is already tired. Now, nobody's fighting for position. Well, now, though, then it turned into a super important race after they made this decision to do this. Yeah, yeah. I mean, so the discussion was, so it was going to be. 40, 5411, which is the maximum

or that kind of distance. And so SRAM filed a complaint because SRAM now, since a few years already, they do not produce any more cassettes starting with an 11. And to get to that ratio, per, you know,

meters per per RPM, SRAM riders would have been at disadvantage, a few centimeters, but still, you know, at that level, it's a disadvantage, which personally, I think personally, it's, it would not have made a difference in the results, but SRAM has used that as one of their arguments. But I think more than that, they've used the fact that the SRAM system, meaning you would have had to have, I think was it 50, 10 or 5110? I don't remember, would be deemed illegal for the UCI and it had a negative impact on their brand.

And people were starting to say, okay, well, these gears are UCI illegal. And it would, I mean, if you listen to SRAM's explanation, it would have cost them at least two years to change their whole manufacturing process, which I can understand it's a huge investment. So what did Sram do? They filed a complaint with, I was surprised when I saw it, but it actually makes sense, especially if you want to speed up things. There's, apparently there's an organization. I never heard of it, but it's called the Belgian Competition Authority, which is an organization that oversees commercial competition law,

which, for example, if you, if you, make abuse of a dominant position in business, you can get, you know, called back and say, okay, you can't do this. So, you know, without going into detail, SRAM filed a complaint. And that authority, which is apparently has the same power as a normal court, has deemed this test illegal at the disadvantage of SRAM. And SRAM won their complaint, of course the UCI who would be surprised has already said that they will appeal it but personally i don't think i don't think that you know working on safety that's not where you have to look at it um there's a lot of other things that can be done i should be done before thinking about

limiting limiting the gears uh plus i think that the UCI needs to realize and everybody knows that i'm not neutral and you know the UCI is absolutely not one of my favorite organizations right the opposite. But I think that they cannot, I mean, they are the governing body of the sport of cycling. The sport of cycling is on bicycles and is heavily depending on the bicycle industry. And they are constantly going against these brands and against these developments and against these manufacturers who they need. And SRAM is now become one of the dominant players of components. So, you know, if I read the statement and the complaint of Sram, they've reached out many

times to the UCI, they've never gotten engaged in any conversation, never have been consulted. So, yeah, that's for the moment. That's it on the gear restrictions. It's not, it's not going forward. Why did this happen? Why did the UCI think that this was a good idea? because I would tell you a 15-minute consultation with an attorney would have told you you're absolutely going to get sued by Schram and they're going to win because this is a

ridiculous rule you're not giving them time to modify their product yeah well yes Spencer you're right but the UCI and many or most or almost all of the sports organizations have been and are used to get away with whatever they want meaning that normal civil law doesn't seem to concern them. Now, this is one example. It's a precedent of, in my opinion, many more issues that will come, not just in terms of equipment, but, you know, I mean, sports regulations and sports law is, I mean, these rules are written by these federations and are just accepted by everybody without being tested, without being accountable to any authority. And there's many laws, and personally, I mean, I won't go into detail, but I have had to deal with it in the U.S. Postal case concerning my ban and whatever has happened is one thing.

But if you look at it legally, it's a joke. It's a joke. they can do whatever they want with whoever they want and they obtain whatever they want to obtain because it's the court of arbitration for sports who has been deciding. So now, maybe in the future, that might change. The fact that they, that I found out that they hadn't talked to Schram about this and hadn't worked with Schram on it. Yeah.

It does not reflect very well on the UCI's internal decision making. Well, then also, Spencer, unless I'm mistaken, sorry, unless I'm mistaken, but I would need to check. But I am pretty sure that, I mean, at least in the past for a very long time, and I think it's still the case that one of the main sponsors of the UCI is Shimano. Yes. Who was not affected by this new regulation? No, but that almost that that that's like a joke because that it's. But it seems that makes it so clear to a court that this is not okay. And of course, they were always going to rule for Schramm's insurance favor. And apparently the UCI does not care. But they don't care.

They don't care. Did they not think that this was going to happen? Well, I mean, they don't care. I mean, the IOC doesn't care about being sued and because they usually get away with what they want. And if, you know, if a certain rule is not. accepted then they changed the rule until it's accepted so you know uh but no i think i think i wouldn't be pissing off shram if has ucii yeah it's a it's a big player i personally think from from a performance time this point of view it wouldn't have really mattered whether you were

on shaman or or stram uh it's two three centimeters difference doesn't really matter i think in time trials it was free anyway you know it was only for road racing i think the the the key was to check if the speeds would go down especially you know when you're when you when you have false flat downhill you know two three percent that's where the speeds are extremely high and the bigger gear i mean if you have to stop pedaling because you run out of gears the speeds go down if you keep pedaling because you have a 58 chain ring or a 60 chain ring uh obviously that makes things more more dangerous I do think, however, that whatever they wanted to test would have been useless if you tested in the tour of Guangxi in China, would have been, I mean, the results would have been, you know, not worth, not worth considering.

Can you imagine being a Sramm team rolling up to the tour of Guangxi and then you're on significantly smaller gears and shramato teams? What a joke. Yeah. Well, I mean, then also Spencer, you know, I think there's right now, there's two teams who care about, three teams who care about Turguang Chi. It's Confidis, Uno X, and Total Energies. Nobody has. Tour of Guangchi is a race where basically, I mean, somebody else is going to win, not maybe Oghai, maybe Yohan could win for, you know, X, I don't know, depending on the course. I haven't seen it. but it's a race that, you know, you have to go because it's a UCR. It's a World Tour race, which I don't understand why it's a World Tour race. But, and then, you know, who's world tour, is it?

Yeah. And it's their race. It makes no sense. It makes no sense. But it's something that most of the riders have to, I mean, the guys who go there, they have to go. They don't really want to go. If they have to go, okay, they're going to make the best out of it. but it's a relaxed atmosphere, and then there's going to be five to seven riders who had,

you know, maybe some injuries and that still are motivated and see the opportunity to do a great race and go for G.C. That's it. There's nothing else to do, nothing else to this race. Speaking of the UCI, speaking of G. Derek G., pretty good G.C. Revealed. So before we even get of that. Israel Premier Tech. If you've not, if you've noticed, we've not mentioned them because they've not been at any of these races and they're not going to be at Lombardia. They were barred from Giro del Amelia. They dropped out of the remaining Italian races, dropped out of Lombardia. Voluntarily. Yeah, voluntary. No point implications. I would imagine the writers and the staff said this is not worth it. It's not safe. And their safety cannot be guaranteed. On top of

this. This got me a little bit by surprise. They're rebranding, kind of like what we talked about during the vault that they needed a rebrand. I believe they're changing their country of registration away from Israel, likely to Canada. Let's just call the team Factor Premier Tech. It will be something like that. The thing that really shocked me, Johan, Sylvan Adams, is stepping back from a public facing role. Presumably he'll still fund the team. I don't know how long he's going to keep doing that. If he's not really a public face of the team. So that happened. Well, I mean, I think, you know, I, okay, I mean, it's obviously some, I think it's something

that he kind of, I mean, no, he doesn't have to, but, you know, I think this guy really likes cycling, right? So if he funds the team, he's going to officially step back, whether that's in reality going to be, obviously, he's going to have less involvement. But by the way, pretty good cyclist, Sylvan Adams. I saw he got second last week, he got second at the world championship's masters on the track. And he's already world champion on the road a few times, I think, in his age category. So, I mean, he's, I mean, I think he's, I don't know, is he, is he in mid-60s or something? Yeah, so he's very fit.

Pretty fit, very fit. It's a pretty good cycle. Pretty good, pretty good writer. Almost as good. Or Jonas is almost as good as him. But you see him at the tour, I was going to bring this up. You see him at the tour, he rides every day. It looks cool, right?

If you had the money to do it, that's what you would do. You're riding every morning in a different place in France. You're in the middle of a team at the race. Do you think he's going to keep, what did you make from the statement? Is he going to be around doing that anymore? How's that going to work? I personally think initially he's definitely going to fund the team. And there's no other way now.

if this team wants to exist next year and the year after this for the moment there's no time to find an extra sponsor and there's been multi-year commitments already with certain writers

so he's going to have to keep funding the team in my opinion but yeah I mean Derek G yeah maybe you want to summarize the statement Derek G put out

they might have 30 million extra euros to work with because Spencer no so Derek G released a statement yesterday little bit I would say passive it was written in the passive voice little bit tough to parse but the the the I guess overarching theme is he was saying I'm leaving the team because I I couldn't get along with certain people at the team and because of ethical concerns, not because of money, specifically said, and then revealed that he's being sued for 30 million euros by Israel Premier Tech for breaking his contract. Why is this happening, Johan? A, why are we hearing from Derek G? And why is Israel Premier Tech pursuing them like this? The statement is two fault. I think, first of all, I had heard already that I don't know if

it's the team or if it's Sylvan Adams personally is suing Derek G for 30 million, not 13, 30. 3.0. Because of, you know, commercial damages, meaning that you know, because Derek G. is leaving, he's losing a sponsor or something or losing 10 million

on sponsorship over three years. I don't know if that was the case. Derek G is not going to pay 30 million or nobody else is going to pay 30 million to Israel, Premier Tech. There might be a little bit of negotiation going on, but, but I'm pretty sure that there are the people, the legal people around

Derek G have done their homework. And even if you have a contract, if there are certain things happening in the team, in your working environment, that makes it impossible for you to carry on your job, you have a legal ground to terminate your contract and even leave for zero euros. That's going to be a matter of, you know, lawyers and courts. And ultimately, will they go to court or not? That's not a question. I think it's not great for Derek G. Because if you have to deal with all that stuff until it's resolved,

it puts your career on hold. Because, you know, he's not going to have a peaceful off-season. He's not going to have a peaceful preparation. And I think until there's some kind of decision, it's also impossible for Derek G to officially sign up. with the new team, although he might have done that already privately, and especially not announce it. I mean, we are here everywhere that Derek G is going to Ineos, right?

And I think that's probably, that probably makes sense for him and for Ineos, but it's going to come down to lawyers negotiating, in my opinion, and try to avoid a court case. Otherwise, this may drag on and we may be at the start of the Giro next year, and Derek Gey has still know then off the way he's going to race. No. So here's his exact quote in an irreparable relationship with the team principle, whom I would understand to be Sylvan Adams, as well as serious concerns related to racing for the team,

both from a safety and personal belief standpoint that weighed heavily on my conscience. If he was taking my advice, I would not have put that in. Because now whichever team you signed for, are you saying you don't have any? ethical concerns about the team sponsor of that team because if it's Ineos, that's not going to look great. But Johan, am I misremembering, but wasn't Wout Van Arp being sued by his team for years and then raced for Vizma in the meantime?

Yeah, and he lost. And he had to pay a big amount of money. Can G just continue to race while this suit is going on? Yeah, well, I mean, the thing with the difference here, I think what Derek G needs to consider is that Walt von Art was getting sued by an ex-professional cyclist who had a small professional team was called Nick Nuggins, ex-winner of Tour of Flanders. Tour of Flanders winner, yeah. It's not the same if you're being sued by Sylvan Adams, who has a lot of money,

a lot of time, and a lot of good lawyers. It's not the same thing. Now more time on his hands, too. Yeah, yeah. So, you know, I think it's in, in, yeah, there's probably going to be negotiated. And on the other hand, then also what we need to, I mean, I'm just speaking hypothetically, right? But if it's true that Derek G has made an agreement already without announcing it officially with Ineos, these people also have really good people with a lot of money and a lot of time to counter-sue or to negotiate.

So I think personally that that. that's going to be part of the deal already, is that, okay, you know, we'll, you, you, you, you terminate your contract because you, you can't, you personally have decided that there's no way you can stay on that team because certain things have happened. Uh, you sign with us and we'll take care of everything behind the scenes. That's probably what's going to happen. You might be a better team manager than me. Because if I, if a guy I was pursuing was getting sued for over 30 million euros, I might say, now who are you what what agreement did we have i i because g could get hung out to dry here

if yeah if he just says yes yes it's true it's true it's not a it's not a handshake agreement uh it's no way it's you know these contracts that they sign that are agreements to sign a contract at a later yeah yeah letter of that or is it a real contract letter of intent yeah but there are letters of intent that are binding agreements. What, tell that to Filippo, Ghana. Zana. Zana.

Zana. Yeah. Didn't he get rug pulled on that? Yeah. And I just saw, actually, you know what? Today I read about the same situation. We've talked about him already. So it's completely different,

but the Belgian writer, Edward Plunkard, who was on Alpacin and had signed for Sudal. to be lead-out guy for Merlir. Yeah. It's apparently now going back to opposite. Interesting.

Yeah. They negotiated an agreement, I think. So, I mean, it's never set in stone, you know. I mean, we should say, I don't think, I don't think Israel Premier Tech's getting 30 million euros out of Derek G. I don't think a court is going to be, I don't know. I just feel like courts and you're seeing over and over again. the EU that in something i'm a little fuzzy on i don't think this is in israeli courts i don't think it's in canadian what determines where this court case happens um i mean in this case

i mean deroggi is a canadian uh is the team canadian right now no i think it's israeli at the moment uh-huh okay um if you know if if it would be european writer i would say it's the European Court of Human Rights that ultimately decides. But for the moment, if you look at it, and again, this is again one of the situations where I'm curious to see what the UCI will do here is that it's the UCI who has to approve the transfer of their G. And if there's a transfer of a cyclist who has a running contract, there needs to be an agreement between the three parties, the rider, the old team and the new team, which is not a

not the case. You know, then the question is, okay, how hard can you negotiate and force one of the parties to come to an agreement? But in theory, if the UCI follows their own self-written rules, they cannot approve the transfer of Derek G. Unless Derek G. obtains by a civil court, which is ruling over labor law, which in theory supersedes the sports law.

But who is labor law? Yeah, well, if you would be European, I would say it's any, any European court or ultimately the Supreme European court. But in this case, I don't know. I mean, I think it's Canadian. But if I was a professional cyclist and I'm American, but I'd be living in Gerona or in France, and I'm, let's say, I'm Matthew Bricotelo and I'm paying taxes in France. Is that actually where it's being the cases happening?

We're just trying to guess here, Spencer. I am pretty sure when Derek G. and his agents and lawyers have sent this letter and terminated the contract, they have thought about all this. So they know what to do. Yeah. I would not want to go to a U.S. court with a labor law situation. And I would guess this line, both from a safety and personal belief standpoint,

is to try to get like a, if he can say, I just can't ride for this team because of what I believe. wherever this is a court case is happening they must be hoping that's enough to get them out of well and then i read something i read something was there was very telling uh i don't have it here now let me see if i can find it um but i think at the end in the last sentence he says he uses the word makeup to to explain the change of identity and the change of leadership and And he uses the word makeup. Did you see that somewhere?

In the last sentence of his statement, Derek G. Oh, no, cosmetic structural shifts. Yeah, okay. Cosmetic shift. Yeah. So meaning it's just for the face, but in reality, internally nothing will change. And my, that's how I read it. Yeah, this is, we're getting quickly, not us, but this is quickly getting into dicey territory, though, because.

Yeah. What does that mean? You don't want to ride for a team. You don't like where the money is coming from because then then stuff starts to get uncomfortable really fast. Yeah. Well, listen, there's one thing we know for sure is that Derek G. He's not going to ride for Israel, Premier Tech or whatever is named next year.

No. Now the question is, that's the weirdest part of this whole thing. When will he race and for who will he race? That's the question. But what's the in-game for the team? That's what I don't fully understand. He's not coming back. You just need to get.

the biggest buyout possible from well i mean you know you can start high and try to get something out of it and then also to me it's i mean listen the fact this this this claim of yeah we're missing 30 million euros or dollars in potential sponsorship because derg g is leaving that's complete bullshit you know i mean derogs not going to bring a 30 million dollar sponsor on board uh he's a good writer but he's not a superstar yet at least um so to me that kind of huge amount is to say okay you know what if you want to play we'll play this heart and i will mess with you as long as i can that's the message i'm getting out of that yeah i mean i may or may not have heard that that was said explicitly inside the team too yeah i didn't but that's what that's how about that what i really

between the lines yeah well thanks joan this is officially the longest episode of outcomes ever but and we'll be back tomorrow so we're we're ready to go anything else before we take off no let's uh yeah make sure we're turning on our our live stream at least with i would say you know to be safe a hundred k to go 100 go i think yeah yeah if we want to see some action you never know with Pagatja. I don't think he's going to go with a hundred K to go, but yeah, I'm going to start watching with a hundred K to go. Well, if someone wants to beat him, they might have to go with a hundred K to go. So there could be action whether Pagatja wants it to be or not. Okay, sir. Thanks. And we'll talk tomorrow. Okay. All right, bye.

Thank you.