THEMOVE - Will Jonas Vingegaard Win the Vuelta on l'Angliru? | Vuelta a España Stage 12 Analysis & Stage 13 Preview | THEMOVE+

Episode Date: September 4, 2025

Johan Bruyneel and Spencer Martin break down Juan Ayuso's statement win from the breakaway on Stage 12 of the Vuelta a España, which saw a massive early move go clear before UAE used their superior f...irepower to claim their fifth stage of the race, while the GC contenders sat back to save energy for the looming showdown tomorrow. They discuss how impressive UAE's win total has been so far, but debate whether this strategy is compatible with a GC campaign. Before wrapping up, they preview tomorrow's brutal stage finish atop one of the hardest climbs in professional cycling, l'Angliru, discussing which GC contender might stamp their authority on the race, how they expect the stage to unfold, and who presents the best betting value. Use our special link to see where you can bet in your area and claim the best sign-up offers https://nxtbets.com/betoutcomes/

Transcript
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Starting point is 00:00:00 I also won again, two stage wins. Pretty impressive, I have to say. And as you said already, five stagements already for UAE out of 12 stages. So, you know, we can criticize all we want, but five stage wins in the Vuelta. They're in second place. They're most likely going to be on the podium without any bad luck. Everybody, welcome back to the Move Plus. I'm Spencer Martin.
Starting point is 00:00:30 Johann Bernille, we are breaking down stage 12 of the Vuelta, Espania, and once we do that, we will predict tomorrow's stage 13 critical stage 13, one of the most important stages of the race in terms of G.C. But stage 12 was won by Juo, getting his second stage win of this Volta, Spain, getting his UAE team's fifth out of 11 stages. I know it's stage 12, but we didn't have a stage winner yesterday. That's pretty good. Nearly a 50% strike rate on stages.
Starting point is 00:00:58 Javier Romo from Movistar. Movies start still looking for that elusive victory and a Grupama FDJ writer. I don't think I'd ever heard of Yohan, not to sound like a casual, but Brioch Roland was third chasing very close behind. The day it was as we expected, and you even got the stage winner right. I think your pick yesterday was Juana Uso. So congrats to you, but it was a very kind of strangely, it was like a stage with two climbs, one on one end. one on the other. The breakaway went on the first climb about 40 kilometers into the race. Huge move. 50 plus riders got away. As soon as that happened, Beesma gets to the front,
Starting point is 00:01:40 just starts pacing on the front of the Peloton. Everyone, all the GC riders know that tomorrow's the day they want to conserve energy. Up in the breakaway, of course, if there's a break that big, there's going to be attacks. Mads Pedersen kind of kept it together and kept to the front until they got to the sprint point so he could get those 20 points max and the key to extend his lead because Dionys Vinegard's probably going to make a run here later in the race. And then they get to the second climb, the final climb, and Javier Romo, or not Javier Romo, Wano Yuso is launched by Mark Salara's teammate. It looks like a devastating attack that no one can respond to. Impressively, Romo, like, reels them in, goes with them over the top of the climb,
Starting point is 00:02:21 and they, Iuso was maybe sitting on too much for Romo's liking, but Romo was willing to do the work so it paid off for iuso and then iuso impressively smokes him in the sprint wins the stage but it what you know there was tension with a rider chasing just 13 seconds back there was a peterson group 17 seconds back it was not you know a foregone conclusion but those guys were clearly the best of the group johan we saw no nope we saw protesters on the side no protests on the road so that that was a bit of the big win of the day but what is your takeaway from the stage yeah well takeaway is that a huge group went away 50 plus riders first 38 and then I kind of didn't watch for 10 minutes and all of a sudden there were 50 something
Starting point is 00:03:11 yeah I had the same experience almost half of the half of the Peloton so impressive movie star five riders in the first group already in the 38 riders they had five riders there. So it was clear that, you know, they were keen to win the stage. But, you know, with Ayuso and Soler there, I think it was clear that those, these guys were the favorite. And, you know, no matter what we say about UAE and Ayuso, Ayuso won again, two stage wins, pretty impressive, I have to say.
Starting point is 00:03:48 And as you said already, five stage wins already for UAE out of 12 stages. So, you know, we, we can criticize all we want, but five stage wins in the Vuelta. They're in second place. They're most likely going to be on the podium without any bad luck. You know, we can ask questions, right? We can say, well, why do they let these guys go in the break? If Almeida needs help. I mean, today, for example, I think Almeida was very well surrounded, not at any more.
Starting point is 00:04:22 moment was he alone compared to Jonas and his Vizma teammates. The only question you can have is, well, you know, how much energy do these guys spend the day before Angliru? But again, I think Angliu is also a climb where teammates don't really make that big of a difference. It's super steep the last part. and I think Almeida is a writer that if he if he needs a teammate he's still going to be always better to write his own pace and that pace Almeda's pace is going to be too fast for any of his teammates anyway so I think I think you know we can be critical about the tactics of UAE but I'm not you know I don't hate it you know I mean five stage wins already the team team atmosphere must be quite good, even with the drama we had of Juan Ayuso and, you know, him leaving and the press release and him not being happy about it.
Starting point is 00:05:30 One thing that was coming to my attention and quite telling was Juan Ayuso's comments, his own comments on his Twitter feed. So he says, you know, second stage win. Thank you very much to all the fans for a. an unbelievable day. And thanks a lot to Mark Soler. Not thanking his team at all, just Mark So that's so bad. You know, that's a bit weird. Because, you know, if Ayuso was there, it's obviously because he got the green card from his team to go in the break. The team could easily have said, Ayuso, listen, you just stay with Almeida and this is your job now for
Starting point is 00:06:14 the rest of the Vuelta. And he would have had. to accept it. Obviously, that's not the case. They let him the freedom. You can ask the question, right? Why do they do this? Why do they allow these guys to go and breakaways? Personally, I think, Spencer, don't know what you think, but I think that if they are being realistic and everything goes to plan with Visma and Jonas, I think that they know that it's going to be extremely difficult to win this VELTA. And they, They know that if Almeida stays on this level, he's going to be podium, and at the same time, they have opportunities to win stages.
Starting point is 00:06:55 It's not a bad strategy. Yeah, as it was happening, I was thinking, this is ridiculous. Like, Mark Saler was in the move. Yesterday, he's in the move today. Almeida needs someone to position him tomorrow. Maybe Mark Saler would be a good guy to do that. You've got to get to the bottom of the climb in good position. It's really important.
Starting point is 00:07:14 If they get second overall with seven stage wins, is that a success probably right that's pretty good so that would be the flip side but the thing so i i kind of came to terms with the saler being up there launching i used so like oh maybe that's sorry sorry to interrupt let's not forget what we talked about two days ago that they have this goal to win most races true yeah yeah in there today's another one another one that's added to the you know it's 78 now i yeah i was thinking about that. But the thing that really doesn't sit right with me, Johan, is who was one of the last riders to finish yesterday? It's one. Was it? I used to. And, and then it's like he's clearly
Starting point is 00:07:59 physically fine and he clearly has no intent to work for the team. And yes, you get some stage wins. That's nice. But I don't know. Is that sit right with you? It's just, so you're chasing GC. And then you have a guy completely on his own program. Yeah. I can only, think that he got the green light today to go in the break let's wait until tomorrow what if what if I use so tomorrow not that I mean I'm not having
Starting point is 00:08:30 high hopes for this but what if I use so does the first part of the Angliru with Almeida on the wheel and then Almeida attacks I still think it's not going to make a big difference between the big favorite between Almeida and Wingerart and Pitcock
Starting point is 00:08:46 and Felix Gall and other But what if he does that? I mean, I can see the staff, the staff was pretty happy. You know, we have to say lots of the staff is Spanish. So the guy who is at the finish line and was super happy for Adjuso in Spanish and has been with UAE and with the teams of Machin for a very long time. So listen, winning winning. erases a lot of conflicts and a lot of stress.
Starting point is 00:09:25 And so we say teammates don't matter on this climb. But Primus Rogglich won the 2020 Volta Spagna because he got dropped on the final climb tomorrow and he had a teammate subcouz to pace on the line. Like the drafting is not massive, but it's there. Like sometimes it's it's important. It's important in the first part of stage of the climb and then the last one and a half kilometer yeah and so maybe iuso does an amazing job tomorrow and like that would be fantastic but why i still can't get my head around why did they bring him was it four stage wins because he said that he was never going to be in the gc yeah
Starting point is 00:10:10 he said that so from the from the get go yeah uh obviously listen if you can go to the vault and you can win two stages, any rider would take that, except if you're the favorite to win. It's not that easy, you know. I've ridden, I've ridden the Vuelta many times and I've only won once, one stage. So winning two stages in one Vuelta is, you know, is obviously quite the accomplishment. But I, yeah, to answer your question, Spencer, why they brought them, I don't know. Was it part of the agreement to let him go? We don't know.
Starting point is 00:10:55 I think there's obviously other writers on UAE who could be a great teammate. And, you know, if we're thinking about Brandon McNulty, Ralph Al-Maika, what about him? He could, he could have heard people say that, but isn't he retiring and he wanted to do tour of Poland? Yeah, yeah, yeah. He's retiring. He wanted to do Poland. But yeah, he can, yeah. But there's people in the VALTA that were in Poland, you know? True. He might be. I mean, I don't want to speak for the guy, but he might be in a beer garden, enjoy his impending retirement. Listen, I think you can't ask to squeeze out the last bit of energy out of Rafaika after everything has done, you know, and what he means for the team. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:11:43 But they have a lot of strong riders in that team. I mean, maybe I just two, two stagements of the vault to like, is that moving the needle for UAE? Like, clearly it is. Clearly it's enough for them to bring him. And maybe he's amazing tomorrow. And we say, oh, that's why they brought him. They're geniuses. We're fools.
Starting point is 00:11:59 So I don't want to dig into this too much because it's still, there's still cards left to play. Maybe he's happy now. I mean, you were saying in the Spanish media, it doesn't seem like he's a static at, you'd think he would be happy because he wanted to leave the team's a dictatorship now he gets to leave he still doesn't seem that happy and he's still criticizing the team yeah and you said he's getting some criticism in spain well i mean he's not i mean today he didn't criticize the team but he didn't thank anybody else then mark soler that's yeah not cool uh and then i saw a quote from for example from pedro pedro delgado who's a very ex-2 de france winner ex-vuelta winner i think twice he's a star in
Starting point is 00:12:41 Spain. And he's also a commentator on Spanish national TV. And he was quite critical about a USO's comments after, you know, the press release and saying, by saying, hey, you know what? I mean, listen, you want to leave. You have a multi-year commitment. You want to leave. The team allows you to leave. What else do you want? You know, just be grateful that they let you leave and go to another team and look, you know, for your own personal interest and then don't criticize the team because of the wording or the timing of the press release. Yeah. I personally think Delgado has a point, you know.
Starting point is 00:13:24 I'm not, I'm not criticizing the fact that Ayuso wants to leave. I mean, he only knows why he wants to leave and why he wants something different, but I think his criticism of the team was, yeah, it was a bit. out of control, I think. Yeah, I mean, I think it's bad for cycling that he's at UAE. Like, I want Ayuso, Almeda, Del Toro, all racing against Tatea Pagacar at the tour. I do not, I just think it's terrible that they're all in the same team. So like, I use so is working toward my goal of getting the best riders racing against the best riders.
Starting point is 00:14:02 So he was doing that. He was not going to race for Pagaccha at the tour because he was never going to be on the tour team as long as Pugacha was racing. for the tour. Yeah, which is kind of a shame because then you have this talented rider who's just like warehouse and he's never going to go. But second place, Javier Romo. I get him confused with Ivan Romo. Evon Romeo. Yeah. But Javier Romo is older. He is 26 years old. You'd think, oh, he's a he's a grizzled veteran. No, he's not because he just started racing bikes. He was on a club team in 2020 and then he went straight from a club team to world tour with the Stana in 2021 yeah um very good rider won a stage at tour down under this year i had to go
Starting point is 00:14:46 back i remember us talking about him last year at the tour he was in the winning move in twa on stage nine the gravel stage got seventh that's that's a very hard stage like not only just physically but technically so for a guy he was a trathlet is that right and then he came over cycling In 2020, Spencer, the COVID year, there were no events in Europe and definitely not in Spain, definitely not any triathlons. And so, you know, if I'm not mistaken, he joined a club team, Café Baket, which is one of the best under 23 teams also. It's like one of the feeder teams for, I mean, it's a Basque team. It's been around forever. It's a historic team in Spain.
Starting point is 00:15:32 And I think they, I mean, in the past, I know at least they had a connection with movie star, Bonesto, Casdei Parne. I don't know if that's still the case, but anyway, he was on that team. And he did a couple of races. I think he started, one of his first races was the Spanish championships. He did the time trial, under 23, so finished seventh there. And then he won the Spanish National Road Race. without hardly have ever raced on the road.
Starting point is 00:16:07 So he came straight from private line and won was national champion and then turned straight away professional with Astana, which was a bit of a surprise that you would have thought Movistar would have picked him up, but I don't know what happened there,
Starting point is 00:16:22 but he's been three years or four years on Astana and now since last year on Movistar, but definitely a rider with a big engine. And today, I think he was impressive. You know, Ayuso went really hard for it and Romo was the only guy who could catch him on the climb, on the last climb. And actually, I think the last two kilometers of the last climb, he was definitely equal, if not a bit stronger than Ayuso.
Starting point is 00:16:53 There was no way Ayuso could have dropped him anymore. And I also, that's why he basically gambled everything on the sprint. But yeah, impressive performance. The whole Movistar team was really good today and and Javi Romo was super, was super strong, big performance to be with Ayuso and coming in second. Yeah, it was kind of, it's kind of sad to see him and Movistar miss out on a win. I'm not quite sure what he could have done. It's just when you have a guy like, are you so up in the breakaway? It's like, good luck. I don't know what to tell you there about how to meet him, especially when there's people chasing behind you like if they get caught by the petersing group it's all done
Starting point is 00:17:36 yeah you're not even going to get second yeah he he was pretty generous with the polling he was yelling at iuso but it's funny i used to at the end of the stage i thought i was in the i was in public watching the race and i'm pretty sure he said i i don't like to race like that but the team made me it's like wait come on you mean like sitting on or doing less work in the other one it's like That's how really bike races, man. I mean, listen, Ayuso was, I mean, if the instructions from the team are obviously, okay, you know, to take a pole, but don't drive the break. They needed more than we do, which is true. You know, you take advantage of the weaknesses of your opponents.
Starting point is 00:18:18 I mean, Movistar desperately needs a win. Romo needs a win. Ayeso has won already many times. you won a stage so yeah it's normal I think it's normal you take advantage of that situation and try to play to your advantage
Starting point is 00:18:36 when's the last time Movistar won't vault the stage huh I don't know man it might it might have been do you it might have been
Starting point is 00:18:50 probably probably Bigelangal Lopez one of those big clients yeah 2021, that was the same year where he was like sitting top five or something on stage 20 and he just got off his bike, him at home. I still can't believe that. Unbelievable. Commitment to being disgruntled.
Starting point is 00:19:12 So I do respect that. Anything else on the stage before I move on? Yeah, I mean, other than that, I mean, easy day for the G.C. guys, you know, Visma was completely in control. They had Victor Campanards up the road. I don't know why but he was there and basically was Von Barle and was the other guy
Starting point is 00:19:33 Calderman maybe or Von Barla Kelderman and Ben Toulat who were always there and then Jorgensen setting the tempo on the climb with Toulat again so yeah
Starting point is 00:19:49 I mean no problems for them it was kind of to be expected you know to that there was not going to be any movement in G.C. Because it was clear that there was going to be a big breakaway up the road. So everybody's saving their legs for tomorrow. Yeah, yeah. I think that was obvious.
Starting point is 00:20:10 One thing before I move on, why not you so? He's listed at 65 kilos. I was surprised because Javier Roma is a, you know, he's like a muscular, he looks like a triathlet kind of. why do you assume it's like a big broad shoulders like is he really 60 he's also tall like much taller than i thought he was how tall is he he's listed at one 1.83 meters 183 okay 65 kilos yeah i think it's possible it's it is light uh 65 kilos it's like pagachar weight uh yeah yeah it is super light um he looks i mean
Starting point is 00:20:51 Yeah, I don't know. I was just looking at him thinking, man, that is an athletic. It's been a minute since we've seen someone with that athletic of building a grand tour. But then if you look at, for example, let's see, what's Mateo Jorgensen? Jorgensen is, let's see, he's tough. He's super tall. He's probably as light as he can be.
Starting point is 00:21:18 But that's another kind of thing I worry, not working. worry about. I think Jorgensen has had a great career. He could retire. Jorgensen is 190 and he weighs 69 kilos. Yeah, I think that makes it tall. It's tall. Makes it tough for him to win Grand Tours against these guys like Jonas and. Yeah. And Pagachar. Like, think like Jonas Pagachar, Rimco, like that none of these guys are are very big. But man, let me tell you my 190 and 69 kilos that you're skinny. That's skinny. That's skinny. That's, yeah. Do you remember what he called into the. move and he was eating fake ice cream or something. Yeah, like I think his whole life is like
Starting point is 00:21:58 focusing on being as skinny as he possibly can. It's just, it's tough in modern cycling, I think, to win grant tours when you're built like a normal athlete. It's hard. You're racing against tiny people. But moving on, let's take a quick ad break, Johan. And we'll talk about stage 13, a very important GC stage. Okay, Johan, we're back 202 kilometer stage tomorrow to I cannot pronounce this climb La Angrelu I guess would be the best Alto the Langliru
Starting point is 00:22:25 Langliu and it is the third climb of the day but the first two are clustered right before it it's a cat one about 40 kilometers from the finish
Starting point is 00:22:39 it's the descent sprint point and then another cat one 5.5k at 8.8%. And let me tell you those two climbs Spencer those two climbs are already very hard. Like I remember some of the guys
Starting point is 00:22:54 for example, Alto del Cordal is already very like the last two kilometers of Alto del Cordal you know, obviously you have special I mean back in the days, you know, now they have such a big range of of gears but
Starting point is 00:23:10 you know you had special gears back in the days for the Anglico, especially for the stage but I remember some guys saying you know the smallest gear i had i was already using it on alto del cordaure which is super bad for the morale if you know that you have to go up the angli-do afterwards you know what's all it's a 12 percent average for the last 2k on that climb yeah that is depressing you're already tapped out on your gears and you're not even to the hardest climb but they look small on the profile
Starting point is 00:23:43 because the hard so the second to last climb as you said five and a half kilometers almost nine percent average the final climb 13k long basically 10 percent average gradient for that 13k but that's deceptive deceptively low because the last let's say two thirds of it it's almost all over 12 percent with kilometers at basically 17 percent average and then if this awkward like dip it's almost descends to the the finish at the very top. Last time we came here, Prima Zraglach won. It's almost always won from the GC group. The only one we could find that wasn't that way was 2013.
Starting point is 00:24:24 Kenny Ellison won. And then that's where Chris Froon dropped Vincenzo Niboli and won the overall. I'll list of the favorites. And then we'll talk about who's going to win. And you've been a part as a manager of a few key
Starting point is 00:24:39 moments of this race as well, at this stage as well. Yeah. To speak, before we talk about the favorite, Spencer, so it's such a special climb. As I said, nowadays, you know, the gear range is just, it's not a problem anymore. You know, you can write 34, 34, 34, or even 34, 36, I would think. Yeah, you can write 34, 36 because that's what I have on my Ventum NS1. I have 34 in the front and 36 in the back.
Starting point is 00:25:08 It's, you know, and I don't know if I would get up. Angliru with this, but back in the days, I remember the first time the Peloton went up Angliru was 1999. I was there with Postal, my first year as a DS. Was it 99 or 2000? Probably 99. And I think the first winner was Jose Maria Jimenez, El Chava, one of the great climbers of Spain. Sadly, it's not amongst us anymore. And I remember back then, you know, obviously the equipment was completely different. And it was a big mess because the mechanics had to change the bikes.
Starting point is 00:25:57 We were, you know, to get up the Angiru, you had to have a triple chain ring. There was not, so we had to change. We wrote Shimano back then, triple chaining. The mechanics had to change all the baller. brackets because you needed a longer bottom bracket axle for three chain rings and that was that was quite i mean something back then also because you know back in the days we didn't have an overflow and stuff you know we had maybe three mechanics for the whole for the whole team and so yeah that was
Starting point is 00:26:34 something and then in 2002 i remember we won with postal with roberto herras one one there and And I do remember back then triple chaining still, and Roberto was riding, so three chanings in the front, 53, 39, 30. And then in the back, he was riding 1125. So his smallest gear was 30, 25. And it was raining. And I remember that with a 30, 25, he had to stay seated because, and the wheel was skipping. Yeah. Yeah, that's crazy.
Starting point is 00:27:11 Yeah, yeah, yeah. So times have changed since, you know, it's 23 years later in the meantime. And the gearing is not an issue anymore. I don't think any of those were televised in the U.S., but it was like the heyday of cycling magazine. So I just remember sitting in school reading like pro cycling magazine and they would like talk about this. Like, oh, wow, they're riding triples. And then like I think climbs like this pushed our modern, what we have now. Like we're kind of born out of these.
Starting point is 00:27:41 climbs because these riders were like, these gears are not big enough and it pushed the manufacturers to make better gearing that we're enjoying today. So it is like an interesting bit of, it's a new climb. You know, I think 99 was the first time I never went up. And then it's, it's kind of bit. It's featured quite a few times, like seven or eight times, I guess. The only, I mean, Harass in 2002, your writer, won by like a minute and a half, but it's not actually does not normally generate massive gaps is the only like slight misunderstanding i mean it's it's kind of what you tend to see you know on on those super steep climbs i mean everybody just you can only go your own pace uh it's not like it's usually climbs of like between seven and nine percent
Starting point is 00:28:29 tend to to produce bigger gaps yeah because the speeds are so high the speed is a lot higher um you know on this climb you either go whatever 10 per hour hour or nine point two kilometers per hour it's you know yeah on the steep parts but um yeah so yeah you don't tend to see big big gaps yeah i haven't done the math on this but i think like let's say someone's going eight miles an hour and the person behind them's going seven i think the time would be different than if someone's going like 17 miles an hour and the person behind them's going 16 miles an hour on a climb but I don't know a mathematician let me know if that's right or not
Starting point is 00:29:11 the favorite is this is crazy stage favorite Jonas Vinegard minus one he's 190 on Fanduel in the US you said he's 167 on on Unabat which I'm having negative 167 yeah negative 167
Starting point is 00:29:27 so you'd have to bet $167 to win $100 a profit Joala Meda that might not be a bad bet Jewel Ameta plus 700 that's the second favorite Tom Pickock plus 1100 j vine plus 1,800 plus 1,800 plus 3,000 that would be epic if you won that jai henley plus 3,500 david go do i don't even know why it's this high plus 5500 it goes on and on we'll come out when we need to if you do want to bet go to nxtibets.com slash bet outcomes
Starting point is 00:29:57 they'll walk you through how to do it and where to get the best price and sign up bonuses wherever you live yohan how do you think this is going to play out gc or breakaway and who's going to win I'm almost certain it's going to be G.C. Spencer, especially with the strength of Visma, knowing that Jonas, he wanted to win the other day, didn't turn out. I mean, the case because of the end of the stage. But I think tomorrow, Vizma's keeping this under control tight and any break that is under whatever, three minutes, I would say. At the bottom of Angliru doesn't. make it. So I'm going to go, Jonas. This is the climb, basically, Anglilu is also the climb where for the first time we saw Jonas in a big race do a super performance. I remember seeing him in 2020 on Visma when nobody really knew Johannes Fingeguard,
Starting point is 00:30:58 doing an incredible, impressive pull for Ramos Roglidge, who won the Vuelta then. I don't know, I don't remember. I think it was Hugh Carty who won the stage, if I'm not mistaken. Yeah. But Jonas did a really oppressive pull there and kind of put his name on the map. From then on, we kind of knew that this guy was going to be somebody that had the huge potential. So even at minus 167, I'm going to pick Jonas to win the stage. it's not a bad pick even at that price
Starting point is 00:31:37 the thing about the breakaway it looks like a single climb stage when you glance at it but these two climbs before at 8.5% and 9% a break could lose minutes they could have seven minutes going into that first climb and it's down to three at the bottom of the final climb and as you said three minutes is going to evaporate I think GC as well I think Yonis is a fine pick
Starting point is 00:31:59 but I there's a very good chance to Jonas just ends the vault of tomorrow. But I'm going to go out on a limb and say I saw blood in the water in the Basque Country the other day when Tom Piccock dropped him. I'm going to go
Starting point is 00:32:15 Jvalimeda plus 700. I've already put the bed in. I've got Almeda winning tomorrow and maybe not winning the vault of tomorrow, but starting to worry Jonas Finnegard. And it's so steep that Almeida, he's like, you know, he's such
Starting point is 00:32:33 a steady state climber i think it i think it could help him quite a bit yeah yeah i mean honestly i i think spencer if uh if we're starting from a point that's going to be gc um i don't think there's anybody who can win um except jonas uh almeda or pitcock um so it's difficult to choose someone else um you know a breakaway breakaway who could could make it from a breakaway j vine could stay away i think he's kind of the only one of the whole what about i mean i think j vine is a good pick there what about matthew ricketto as i say that that could be wish casting there no um especially since he's in the gc but yeah j not not against those guys uh you know i wonder now how for example uh i mean well yeah carty won
Starting point is 00:33:31 But finally he finished third in that Vuelta, I think. Was it not, was it not Roglidge and Carapas and Carty, the top three? Yeah, I think it was not big gaps at all. I think Carty was very close in the GC. So, you know, what if, what if nobody can drop each other? And for example, a guy like Felix Gall does a Carty. Yeah. That's a possibility also.
Starting point is 00:33:58 Who else could win? I mean, Jay Hindley, I don't think so, man. I mean, I don't even think FedEx Cowell. I mean, he's not going to be with Jonas and with Pitcock and with Almeida. I don't think so. So, you know, just to cover the possibility of a breakaway, I'm going to take Jay Vine as a wildcard plus 1,400. The case for Vine would be he's one of probably the only rider in this race. not in the gc well i guess that's maybe not true maybe one of two riders in the race
Starting point is 00:34:33 not in the gc that can climb he climbs roughly the same speed like the other day he was almost the same speed as the gc riders on that climb where he won that's very unusual for a breakaway rider i'm going to go my white card pickock plus 1100 on fanduel because very simple reason because he's very light he's the lightest of the gc contenders and he's very strong so on steep climb light man go fast is my thesis there yeah i think pitcock is discovering himself day by day you know uh he's growing day by day his confidence is through the roof and um yeah tomorrow it's it's a new undiscovered terrain for him also no steep climb with of that distance But if there's anybody who can give Jonas a run for his money, except Almeda, it's going to be Pitcock.
Starting point is 00:35:30 It's for the moment the only one also of the whole Valta Peloton who put the hurt on Jonas, only a little bit for a short period of time, but it could be a continuation tomorrow of what we've seen. And, yeah, I mean, it would be amazing for the race, man. I mean, if Pitcock drops Jonas tomorrow, that keeps the race wide open, you know, even if he stays with him and beats him in the sprint, that's another possibility. He doesn't really need to drop him. Yeah. That is the case for Pitcock.
Starting point is 00:36:04 He does not need to drop either of those guys to beat them. And they probably lose if they go to the line with them. Yeah. And like people ask us how to wait these bets. Tomorrow would be a day where put your favorite. If Vindegarde is your favorite, if Almeida's your favorite, I don't know, 100 units on them, put like five units on your wild card because this is most likely going to be between those two guys. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:36:30 Anything else, Johan, before we take off? No, not really. I mean, it's going to be an exciting. I mean, long stage, 202 kilometers. I know. I was surprised by that. That's kind of, that plays a bit into the hand of a breakaway, right? I mean, it's not a super short stage.
Starting point is 00:36:47 So there is a lot of terrain to cover before we hit those street climbs. So a breakaway could have already a decent amount of advantage. But the terrain for the first 150K is not conducive to a good climber getting into the breakaway. Yeah, exactly. So that, you know, if you have. Also important, important fact, it's going to be good weather tomorrow, which is very important in that part of Spain. It's known for the rain and, you know, lots of dangerous descents. So that's not going to be a factor tomorrow.
Starting point is 00:37:24 I don't know if I've ever seen good weather on this climb. Well, it's going to be good weather tomorrow. Nice. Well, I'm excited. And we will be back here to break it down after the finish. Okay, Spencer. Speak soon. All right.
Starting point is 00:37:37 Bye.

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