THEMOVE - Will Tomorrow's Brutal Mountain Stage Decide La Vuelta? | Vuelta a España Stage 19 Analysis & Stage 20 Preview | THEMOVE+

Episode Date: September 12, 2025

Johan Bruyneel and Spencer Martin break down Jasper Philipsen's sprint to win Stage 19 of the Vuelta a España over Mads Pedersen in a tough uphill finish. They analyze Alpecin's unusual leadout strategy and how Jonas Vingegaard stole four seconds mid-stage due to an inattentive UAE team, and whether it could affect the final GC standings. Before they go, they preview tomorrow’s crucial mountain stage, discussing how it could play out and who is best positioned to take the stage win. Caldera Lab: Upgrade your routine with Caldera Lab and see the difference for yourself. Go to https://CalderaLab.com/THEMOVE and use THEMOVE at checkout for 20% off your first order Use our special link to see where you can bet in your area and claim the best sign-up offers https://nxtbets.com/betoutcomes/

I mean, the lead-out was amazing. Philipson basically, and it was a slow sprint also because until the last 200 meters, it was slightly uphill and then it flattened out a little bit. So I would say impressive sprint from Philipson, you can clearly see. And he also afterwards said in his interview that he's not in great shape during the Hall of Welta already, but yet he wins three stages and maybe a fourth one in Madrid. So that's quite the comeback, I would say, you know, after his unfortunate crash in the Tour de France. Everybody, welcome back to the Move Plus. I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with Johann Bernal.

We are breaking down stage 19 of the Volta, Aspania, before previewing tomorrow's incredibly critical mountain stage, the final GC stage, stage 20, which finishes atop the Bola de Mundo, which is right outside Johan's back door. so we can give us some information on that. Just a quick rundown of today's stage 19. Pretty simple. One rider goes clear, sleepy sprint stage. The crosswinds did not really come to fruition. With 60K to go, though, there was a bonus sprint with time bonuses. There was a sprint point with time bonuses.

Of course, the breakaway takes the six seconds for first. We're not quite sure what happened, but UAE seemed confused. Didn't know it was there. Same thing with Tom Pitcock. And Jonas Vindigar just goes to the front, rolls over, gets four point, he gets four seconds. He then eliminates, but think about that, that's like a 50% of the gap that, or 50% of the time that Juala made a took yesterday and probably spent six figures, hundreds of thousands of dollars refining that position, that time trial position, just to give half of it back up by not paying attention. 34K to go. There's a little bit of crosswind, some echelons, Jonas Findergarde, really attentive up front, like one of the,

first few riders in the first split and almeda's behind j vine has to pace them back on it was maybe not quite hard enough even though it looked hard was not quite hard enough because they go into the finish and you know yasper phillips and johan's pick for the stage just absolutely toasted everybody on the uphill sprint mads peterson second ullar third for mowistar really putting a lot of power of energy into the leadout because they need a stage win at this welta they could not get close enough though. Johan, as G.C. is unchanged. Johan, what was your takeaway of the day?

Well, for me, obviously the event of the day is the sprint with Philipson, but especially, I would say, the way Alpacin has orchestrated this approach. I don't know. I mean, they obviously were the favorite, but for me, it's a bit unclear why these other teams were doing such a huge, huge leadout, and Alpacin was just sitting back. I mean, I re-checked the images, and with 1.3 kilometers to go, there was not one single Alpacin rider in the top 40, which is crazy. And then they had, all of a sudden, you could see there's four guys.

I mean, I know there's Ricard and Edward Plankart and Philipson. I don't know who the other guy was, but, you know, they just come. and Ricard just gets under the flag he gets to first position or to almost to first position and I mean the leadout was amazing Philipson basically and it was a slow sprint also because until the last 200 meters it was slightly uphill and then it flattened out a little bit so I would say impressive sprint from from Philipson you can clearly see and he also afterwards said in his interview that he's not in great shape during the Hall of Welta already, but yet he wins three stages and maybe a fourth one in Madrid.

So that's quite the comeback, I would say, you know, after his unfortunate crash in the Tour de France. But yeah, I mean, yeah, I don't know how Opposin, they have this way of, they've really figured out how to get to the front at the last moment with four guys. and I can't see any other team able to do that. You know, it's been like that all-welta, all-season kind of. Like, if you look at the sprints earlier, this welta, they're nowhere to be seen in the last UK. And then they just come up at the last second.

I don't know if that's something we need to have, maybe we need to have someone from the team on over the off-season, but they've definitely seemed to have popular. You know, they're also, you have to be a bit lucky also. So they were kind of lucky that, I mean, first of all, it was hard the approach to. So the speed was not super high. But, you know, in which how many times will you have the situation that Ineos, for example, is leading it out for Ben Turner, who's, you know, not really one of the top favorites, right?

Even if he has on a stage already, but he's not one of the top sprinters. So the fact that Ghana was doing such a long pool was obviously great for them. Because it was a high speed and it didn't really. And then when Ghana left, I don't know who was pulling. Then when Ghana left went off and was it Lotto who was up there, I think, with Viviani? I don't remember who it was now. So all of a sudden it kind of gets together a bit and then you see they're coming on the left side and it was i mean it looks so easy if you see it from the helicopter i'm pretty

sure that you know it's easy to lose each other also of course uh but yeah i mean what a what a what is what a difference also he won with you know against peterson this was an ideal sprint for peterson i know slower speed um but you know if you look at it phillipson versus peterson it's kind of logic has been respected right that phillipson wins yeah i mean he says he's not in shape it's pretty pretty tough sprint and he looks pretty dominant so i mean yeah he's probably going to win four four stages here not a bad comeback from a disappointing tour to friends where he only won one stage and had the leaders jersey before crashing out yeah on stage three i believe two stage yeah three um but i mean it's at

this point there's no there's no debate right yes per phillipson's the best Grand Tour Sprinter in the modern era or currently. I mean, the guy has 16 stage wins in Grand Tours. Never started the Giro to tell you, I believe, behind only Pagachar and Rogwich for active riders, two

ahead of Wild Van Art and Chris Frum. So not a bad, Palmeres. Yeah. Listen, he's a great sprinter. He's you know, with Marlir and with Milan and Philipson, I think those are the three

the pre-fosts sprinters right yeah Merlir would be the only other one you'd say but he just did the thing is he does not he doesn't start grand tours at the same rate he doesn't win at the same rate during grand tours I mean for Philipson what he's been in hibernation since stage eight

of this race right and that's not a lot of sprinters can't do that just go away suffer through the mountains come back looks fantastic like he looked way better than I thought he would after suffering for 10 days. Yeah, yeah, but it took a lot out of him. You could see he was really, I mean, he was on the limit.

And after the finish, it took him quite a while to recover. But anyways, you know, who wouldn't be that exhausted, right? Stage 19 already in such a sprint. Yeah. What's going on with that team? Are they losing one of the title sponsors going in the next year? Well, they're losing the Koenink. So I don't know.

They've lost quite a bit of riders also. You know, they, they're losing Edward Planckard. They're losing, they're losing Johnny Vermeers. They're using, they're losing, they're losing Timo Killich. I just saw who switches to Wisma, a good writer. Uh, Xandre Marissa goes to, uh, Q306.5. So a lot of key domestiques who are actually leaving because obviously they're getting great offers and Alperson is not able to match them.

I mean, they've invested. a lot of their budget in Mathieu van der Poul in Philipson and Caden Groves, which I think is the right thing to do. So, but anyways, I'm not too worried. I mean, they have good young riders also who will step up, I think. Their advantage. As far as I know, for the moment, they have not found a replacement sponsor for the Koenig. So I don't know if Alperson is going to step up.

If Canyon maybe is going to step up a bit, you know, don't know. Yeah, it's kind of a weird situation because Canyon needs the team to survive. So Matthew Vanderpola is somewhere to race. I mean, obviously he goes somewhere else, but this is a good situation for him. So maybe they would step up. I mean, there's some changes going on in a canyon. I don't know if you've been aware, but their founder came back in is now the CEO again. So I don't quite know what's going on there, but that could change the relationship with the team as well.

when you have, I would imagine he's a more racing oriented guy because he's a racing background. And that team is really where the, I feel like the brand went to the next level. But we can talk about that more over the off season. Some of those departures too, I think that's like the Alpison way, right? Someone gets older, more expensive. And you're like, you know what? We're based in Belgium where there's big, strong guys who want to work all around us. Let's get them for cheaper.

Let them more expensive people go to other teams. anything you know on anything else on this day i still can't get over this like how does this happen the other the other highlight is of course this bonus sprint you know with 58k go i mean you see yonas take four seconds you know bitcock and almeda were they sleeping i don't know i mean um it's like you say spencer you know he got he got he put so much effort yes ameda put so much effort yesterday in getting 10 seconds and today for no effort at all. Jonas gets four seconds back.

Ultimately, will it matter? We don't know. We will see that tomorrow, right? But that's definitely, yeah, I was surprised because you could clearly see when you saw the Peloton getting close to that sprint,

that Visma was up there, drilling it. Jonas was up there. I mean, you knew that he was going to try. Yeah. And then it looked like UAE started to come to the front when they, yeah, or like 50 meters to go or something i mean it shows a huge like lack of organization and

discipline too like were they not briefed on it i was shocked watching it because i mean listen there's not that much you have to remember you know and especially on a stage like today is you know okay there's a bonus print there you have a lot of time to think because there's only one rider in front you know that's going to be four and two seconds and if you see all those yellow guys with the red guy on the wheel up front just be on the wheel you know because almeida or pitcock would have beaten yonnas in the sprint yeah i mean think of evo olivierre like all these guys you like they could have easily have boxed vinaigrida out it's shocking i mean maybe they thought the group would be bigger and they didn't even talk about it but there's someone that i know

that is like a strategy consultant for a team and it's always a question's like well what do they do it's like well that would actually be good good for someone to get on the phone right when that break goes and said hey remember guys 60k to go there's some sprint points sprint seconds maybe we get up there and don't let yonas get free time i mean we don't know like that could be the winning margin of the race imagine imagine imagine that would be crazy it's crazy that would be crazy i don't know if you're watching gp kebc right now but no gotcha's back he's stomping all over this race not even the best one of the weekend for him we'll talk about how that plays out maybe on monday when we come back but anything else johan on the stage before we move on i don't think

there's anything else you know it was yeah one rider breakaway so from that moment on we knew we all knew was going to be a bunch sprint the palatone you um also i think one of the slowest stages uh of the whole of the whole of welta you know i think i mean i saw somewhere After, I mean, with like 50, 60K to go, they had like 39.8 average. You don't see that anymore. I mean, still fast, but you don't see it anymore nowadays. You know, that room, I was, I went through last night because you were talking about how short these stages are. So today's was really slow, still sub four hours.

Only a handful of stages of this race have been over four hours. It's like notable, it's almost a different sport than like the tour where a lot of the stages could be four hours. five, six hours. So it is interesting how much shorter these races are. But then let's take a quick commercial break. Quick ad break. We'll talk about stage 20. Things could change tomorrow. Race gets serious tomorrow. We'll be right back. Everybody, this episode is brought to you by Caldera Lab. Let's be real. Most skincare products are not made for men. And when they are, they're usually not that great. They're overly complicated, packed with questionable ingredients or they just don't deliver the results. That's where Caldera Lab comes in. They've redefined men's skin care by combining

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Head to calderalab.com slash the move and use code the move at checkout for 20% off your first order. Again, that's calderaLab.com slash the move. All right, back to the show. Okay, Johann, stage 20, 165 kilometers, but that doesn't really tell the whole story because there are one, two, three, four, five categorized climbs with the, the Bola de Mundo final climb. It is about 9% average gradient, 12.5K long, but it's quite a bit steeper near the top, I believe, not good pavement. You live close to this climb. What can you tell us about it? Yeah, I mean, it's not. So basically, Bola del Mundo is an extension of Navacera, right?

So you get two Navaserada, you take a right, and then it's three kilometers, open, really, really rough pavement. It's like concrete. It's very rough. It's not smooth. And it's three kilometers at 12.5% with, I mean, we can put up the picture here. Gabriel can put it up. I mean, this 18%, 19%.

percent 20 percent 19 percent um i mean it's it's yeah it's it's like uh it's like uh only but but uh worse pavement super super slow and could be also windy um so um so the last time they're going to go up is super super super hard um i expect it to be a gc day um um um I don't think, I mean, it's difficult for a breakaway to make it, you know, because and also if you think about it, Spencer, you know, for Ammaida to have a chance, first of all, he's going to need great legs. That's number one. And they kind of need the stage win in the bonification. They might even need the bonification from there's a, I think it's at the top of the second to last climb. I'm just in the right.

That's also on Mava's head. So they come up Navasarada first from one side, which is the, from what's it called La Grancha of San Ily Elfonso. That's kind of the hardest one, but there's some turns, some switchbacks. They go over it, they go down, and then they come back from Guadarama, which is the longer side, less steep. But anyways, when they get to the top, then they take a right and then it's the Bola del Mundo. Those three kilometers, you'll see, it's going to take very long to get to the top. And I went back and looked, and they haven't done it a lot, but in the past, the time gaps have been significant. So for reasons that, I mean, I don't fully understand, but, you know, with like the Angrelu, the time gaps are never that big.

And as we saw today, like Jonas and Almeda were kind of stuck together. But for whatever reason, maybe it's the bad pavement, you do get bigger, seem to get bigger time gap. on this so there is a hope that there could be at least something in between and also spencer you know i mean if you look at anglidu stage it's i mean there's the alto del cordal before which is hard but not so long um and so the cumulative the accumulation of of meters was what it was in anglerum about 3,000 meters tomorrow is 4200 meters it is the hardest stage of the whole of welta so this is not a long stage this is a real mountain stage And also the climbs are high, you know, 2,200 or 2,300 almost, the Bola del Mundo.

So this is real, real high, high altitude mountain stage. That's different than what we usually see in the Vuelta where the climbs are not at high altitude. That's a good point. I mean, I didn't even know that there was, I guess Madrid's high. So if there's mountains outside of Madrid, it stands the reason they would be high as well. But I had no idea these mountains were so tall right outside the city. What's this mountain range? It's like, what's it called?

It's called the Sierra de Madrid. But this is, this is the, how would you say? It's the mountains around Guadarama. There's many, there's many, many, many, a lot of, a lot of clams there. Navacarada is actually Navacarada, you have Navacarada and you have Cotos, which is next to it. It's more or less the same attitude. but those are actually ski stations. Okay.

Oh, yeah, yeah. I mean, I saw when I was looking at the pictures today. I didn't realize you could ski that close to that either. I'm trying to remember the year. Was it 2015 where Dumelon had the lead, looked a little dinged up going into stage 20, and I think it was a mountain stage around, is that 2015 or was that 2014?

I don't remember. It was when Fabio Ardu won the Vuelta, no? Yeah, so that was 2015. Yeah, it's in the same area. Yeah, and it is a punishment. I just vividly remember the stage. It's punishing. And then you can kind of get through the rest, but if there's any weaknesses, you can blow up.

I mean, Dumalan exploded on this stage because it's unforgiving. I'll list off the odds really quick. This is on Fandul in the U.S., and then we'll pick our winners. Jonas Finnegard plus 360, Jolamator plus 500, Jai Henley, plus 650, Tompsey. Pitcock plus 750, Julio Pellezari plus 1,000, Eddie Dunbar plus 1,800, JVine plus 2,500, Matthew Rickettello, plus 2,700. It goes on and on and on. We'll calm out when we need to. If you do want to bet, make sure you check out next bets, nxtibets.com slash bet outcomes,

and it will tell you exactly where you can bet where you live and the best sign-up bonuses on each book, which can be substantial. So, Johan, how do you think this plays out, GC or breakaway, and who do you think wins? No, I think it's G.C. I think it's D.C. And I think actually tomorrow it's, I mean, in my opinion, it's UAE that needs to control. It would be in the interest of FISMA that they're not racing for the stage win because then the bonifications are gone. Right. So I can't see them control. I mean, if they're smart, they're not controlling and they do everything that it's not a GC day. And UAE needs to do the opposite. But I'm going to, again, I'm going to go for Jonas, Jonas Wingergaard, to win. I think it's D.C. tomorrow and Jonas finally, I mean, stays with Almeida and finally beats him in the last kilometer, plus 300. 360 and you?

Plus 360. Yeah, pretty good. Yeah. I mean, the best climber in the race will win this stage, most likely. So that's not a bad pick. But I'm going to go, I think the best climber in this, Jonas, I think, has looked a little, a little vulnerable and Jolameda also finished behind Yonis

on the last summit finish we had he looked pretty good in that time trial I think this is a good climb for him I'm going Jvalimata plus 500 and as you said if he wants to win this Fulta he needs the time bonuses he has to win the stage and hope that Vindigard

I mean it could be a thrilling we could have like a thrilling countback situation here where we're like watching the clock tick down but I think Almeida wins okay all right My second choice is going to be who, in my opinion, was the best climber in the last time we saw up Alto Moradero. Pitcock looked the strongest of all the favorites. I think he was, I mean, he was quite impressive there, attacked himself, responded to all the attacks, and then dropped everybody in the last 200 meters.

So he's going to be my second choice to win the stage tomorrow, Tom Pitcock. Yeah, Picard, I thought about this. I thought he did look. He looks really good. Is there a chance, Johan, he has to fly. Does he take a private jet?

Can he do the Mount Microw Championship? And then fly back for the final stage on Sunday because he looks that good. I'm going to go wildcard. I'm going real goofy. Like, nothing makes sense. I don't understand it. I'm going J. Vime plus 2,500 because I think he might be the strongest climber in this race.

And I think he's going to be in the breakaway for KOM points. In theory, he should have to come back. but we've seen some really weird stuff from UAE this well to I'm going to go I think if it is a breakaway Jay Vine wins from the breakaway so I'm going him okay okay I mean listen if there's one guy who can do it it's him I just don't understand why they even give priority to the king of the mountains I mean if you don't need this you know whether they win the KOM or not makes no difference can you imagine if J Vine goes in the breakaway wins the stage it gets

KOM and then Almeida loses the overall by like three seconds. It could happen. It's unbelievable. Yeah. Yeah. And that's why that's I've not, this has not been my favorite grand tour for many reasons. The fact that that's a possibility means we've,

we've had a pretty fun time. Also tomorrow, tomorrow, I mean, let's hope fingers crossed that the stage can go on until the finish. But there's not going to be any spectator. in the last kilometer, not because of the protests, but I mean, because of another protest, which happened before the Vuelta. It was that the, I mean, some kind of movement that said that, you know, they, they didn't want the Vuelta to go up there for the environment.

And finally, the Vuelta made a compromise. And they said, and so there's not going to be any spectators except accredited people from the organization in the last kilometer. I think we might be seeing COVID rules brought back in 2026, Johan. I think they might not allow spectators on these final climbs anymore because it's just too hard to control. But yeah, hopefully it happens. They could have blocked today. What is going on with these, like get these sprint stages.

Unfortunately, I have to say, Spencer, I read some news and there is a big movement in Spain. And they've been called to action to come. You know, as many possible people to tomorrow stage and the stage in Madrid. And apparently they have a plan to get to the top of the mountain, not by road, but through the fields, which is how I've heard. So that's difficult to control. Yeah. That's discouraging to hear. I feel bad.

I feel bad for the riders. That's just all I'll say about that. Anything else, Johan, before we take off? No, no. I mean, just tomorrow we're going to be a bit later with the show. I have to travel to the south of Spain with my son for a two-day race. So I'm going to have to do it after the team time trial. Tomorrow there's a team time trial for the cadets.

That's fun. In close to Merida, in Extremadura. So it'll be a nice long drive. The show will be a bit later than normal. Okay. Yeah, and then we'll do that show tomorrow. And then no show Sunday, and then we'll do a recap on Monday. But thanks, Johan, and we will talk soon.

Okay, thanks. All right, bye.