THEMOVE - Will UAE's Struggles Cost Pogačar at This Vuelta? | La Vuelta a España 2026 Stage 5 | THEMOVE

Episode Date: August 26, 2026

Johan Bruyneel and Spencer Martin break down Matthew Brennan's second stage win of this Vuelta after a dominant sprint win following a tough day of racing. They discuss how the win affects Visma's Green Jersey strategy, what to make of UAE's troubles at key points, and if it matters for Pogačar's GC campaign. They also predict the outcome of tomorrow's difficult Stage 6, which features a tough gravel climb that could produce another GC set piece, and go through who they expect to come out on top. Become a WEDŪ Member Today to Unlock VIP Access & Benefits: https://access.wedu.team Ultra Pouches: Ultra is the ultimate guilt-free pouch — delivering instant focus and mental clarity, without nicotine or caffeine. New customers can use code THEMOVE to get 15% off at https://TakeUltra.com. After you purchase, they will ask you where you heard about them. PLEASE support our show and tell them our show sent you. Eight Sleep: Use code THEMOVE at https://eightsleep.com/themove for up to $350 off. 30 days to try it at home. Free returns if it's not for you. Caldera Lab: A small habit with big results. Go to https://CalderaLab.com/THEMOVE and use code THEMOVE for 20% off your first order. Tifosi Optics: Use promo code THEMOVE at https://tifosioptics.com/discount/THEMOVE

Why would you let a rider with a crack in his ankle start a stage like yesterday? I don't understand that. I don't understand that. The team didn't communicate that, by the way. That communication came from Euterbrugs himself. And if that's really true, there's a little crack in his ankle, which, you know, obviously he has done X-ray. So there's no reason for him to say something that's not true. you know it's it's not going to get it's not going to improve during a grand tour

if you have a cracked bone and especially an ankle so I question the decision of letting him start I would say even if the rider insist of okay I'm going to try which may be the case you know maybe he wants to try and maybe he wants to show to his team that you know the trust and confidence they have in him that he he deserves it but you know that's not smart And even if he decides, okay, I want to try, the team has to say there's no way. You can't start. You know, if there's, if we look at these x-rays, there's a crack in your ankle. It's over, you know.

It's no way. Hey, everybody. Welcome back to the Move podcast. I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with Johann Bernille. We are breaking down stage five of the Vuelta, Espania, as well as previewing, doing our outcomes preview for tomorrow's stage six on stage five, though. Matthew Brennan won in a reduced, difficult.

finish against Yorti Mayus and Vincenzo Albanese after a tough fast day of racing through the crosswinds and hills up along coastal Spain, coastal Catalonia, south of Barcelona. Johan, I'll just give us a quick. We also, this is our second time doing the show. We just recorded a fantastic, maybe the best podcast ever recorded that will never be heard because we had technical issues. So if the pacing's a little different today, it's because this is our second time doing this. But just to catch you up with around 113K to go,

we got TV footage came on and it came on at the right time because we saw the Peloton getting into crosswinds, GC teams at the front, splitting things up, NEO's little Trek and Vizma really active at the front. The big takeaway from that is Tadiparagra was in the right place, right place, right time as he almost always is. But he had no UAE team with them. They were really caught out by this.

The Peloton did split. The pace comes off, though, because when you're 100K out, you split it up. There's no one really significantly stuck, significant stuck behind. What is the, what's the impetus to keep that going? Then they get into a, they go through the intermediate sprint. Ethan Hater, they had caught the breakaway because of this acceleration. Ethan Hater goes away, gets max points at the intermediate sprint.

Vizma sets up Wattvinart to get second incredibly well. He gets 17 points. They get to a climb with 28K to go. Enios leads into the climb. It's really narrow. It's almost like a bike path with road. UAE is not where they need to be, but Pagachar once again is there at the front, and then UAE gets J-Vind at the front. I believe Pabal Civacov and Pablo Torres also were up there, and they defensively pace to the start of the sprint.

Uno-X, pretty active at the front, gives a freebie lead-out to Vizma, who then sets up Brennan perfectly. When you have Wauvinart and Christophepporte in front of you, inside the final kilometer, it's probably going to go pretty well. and Brennan was pretty dominant with this sprint. I was surprised how handily he beat Jordy Mayus. But, Johann, what is your eight-sleep move of the day? And if you want an eight-sleep mattress topper, just like Tata Pagachar has at this race, use code the move at eight-sleep.com slash the move to get $350 off through the end of this

well, but Johan, what was your eight-sleep move of the day? Eight-stleep move of the day has to be, again, Matthew Brennan, Spencer, for me. perfect execution from his team, Visma. They had a lot of confidence in him. They got over the climb. Then Van Ard was closing some gaps of guys who were attacking.

With that lead-out of first Van Ard, then Lapport, well, actually first, Uno-X, because that's a bit of a surprise to me to see this Uno-X guy. First I thought, hey, there's another Visma there because in this Vuelta, they're in yellow instead of in red. I don't know what he was doing. I don't know who he was leading out because the next UNAX guy was nowhere to be seen.

But Vizma was definitely not complaining about this. And then, yeah, Matthew Brennan was basically dropped off with 100 meters to go by Christophe Laporte and comfortably sprinted to the finish. Yor DiMews was at the wheel, a real sprinter, and had no chance to even get close to him. So Brennan gets the eight-sleep move of the day for me. I agree. So two, he is five grand tour stages, stage starts in the bank in his career and two stage wins. That is really impressive. Reminiscent of a young Peter Sagan at the 2011 Vuelta, Spagna. Peter Sagan had a great season leading into that, but that was his first big. That was the first grant tour of his career,

I believe, and then he wins three stages. Renan kind of reminded me of Sagan, not personally, personality-wise, but at least performance-wise, where you just have these 20 years old, 21 years old, and he is smoking these guys in these sprints. Are you surprised, Johan, at like the ease in which he's beating people? Like, Yorri Meuse is a really good sprinter. You know, he might not be a big-name sprinter. He's fast, though. He went on Charles Elyze last year, right?

No, two or three years ago. Two years ago already? Okay. Maybe the last time it was a flat sprint, actually. Yes, yes, yes, exactly. Yeah, two years ago. Yeah. Yeah. Brennan, man, I mean, listen, it's a second year pro, and he has already 20 victories as a professional writer. Today was his eighth victory of the season, I think, and last year he won 12 times. So in two years time, 20 wins. That's, I mean, most of the riders will never get that during their whole career. And this guy does it in two seasons. I didn't thought about it like that. That is a good point. Most guys will never win 20 races.

Yeah. Wow. No, there's not many riders who win 20, 20 races in their career. Not many. And what type of rider is Matthew Brennan? My son was asking me, like, who's the fastest sprinter at this race? I'm like, I don't really know. Like, this is before the stage finish.

I'm like, yeah. I don't know. For the moment, it's definitely Brennan. There's not really top sprinters here. You could say, okay, Van Ard in his prime. one bunch sprints, you know, at the tour. Pedersen is fast, but is, you know, not in not in the best shape now. Cade and Gaines Groves would normally be.

Yordi Meos and Cating Groves, yeah, I mean, these guys. But Brennan, I think Brennan is the fastest right now. Even on flat sprints, I think he has, he has chances of winning the bunch sprints. I mean, today was a little goofy because that was so hard. The climb was so hard. If Mads Pedersen's getting dropped, even Mads Pedersen not in his top. form. You know it's really hard. They'll have some flatter sprints later in this race and we'll get to see Mayuse versus Brennan on a true flat sprint. But the thing about Brendan is he's so versatile.

You know, he's the guy who gave Valvanarthe lead out into the Arnberg Forest at Perraubay, classics rider, sprinter. Talk about a high, he is a high upside rider. And do you know have any like info on how did Visima get him? Like what a pickup. I don't know. I don't know. But he was on development team, right? Yeah, he was on their development. I think he was, yeah. Yeah. He was in 2023.

He was on a club team, the Fincham House Moss Design Club. Oh, well, in the UK. In the UK. And then by 2024, they pick him up. But what a pick up that is also just Visma in general. Great, great team at this race. I would have said coming in, this is a stage hunting expedition. But now with Sep Kuse, I mean, hand up.

I didn't think Sep Kus is going to be this. good in the grand tour of the year but it seems like they've got gc covered and they have multiple guys like matthew brett is doing well now but they have two other guys that could win stages quite easily later in this race yeah i think vizma definitely they of course they're their their two de france didn't go as planned with with vingergaards crashing and having to abandon so this is this is a way to uh to strike back they came with a team most of the riders didn't do the Tour de France, except Seppcus, if I'm not mistaken, which is at the Vuelta, which is in a, you know, it's, it's, I think people need to realize also how difficult it is to manage the season, right? I mean, like, to find a proper team that is motivated and fresh for the Vuelta is not easy, even if you have 30 riders on the team.

You know, there's riders who are injured, there's riders who are out of shape, there's riders who are tired from the classics and the tour, to find eight guys. who are super motivated and ready to race. That's not easy. It seems like Vizma has found that. I mean, Sepp Kuz, you know, what to say about him, his third round tour. He did this, was it three years ago? Yeah, in 2023, he did this. And last year, and last year also, I think.

Didn't he do last year the three grand tours? I think so. No, no, no. So last year he doesn't do the zero, does the tour. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah, yes, yes. I frankly thought he was done doing that because in 2023, he does all three and then he looked like he paid for it in 2024. It took him a while to recover from this. But yeah, I think Seppcus is going to be a factor in GC for top five, maybe even a podium.

And then, you know, the other riders on Visma, they're definitely on stage hunting duty. their most their biggest card right now is matthew brennan but we all know that walt van art will want to go and breakaways la port will go and we'll want to go in breakaways yeah they have they have a good team and they're ready for this valta and we should say this wasn't exactly by design yeah i don't think you would draw it up and have laport and van art skip the tour and do the welta but just because of injuries this is how it worked out for them and they they paid for for it at the tour. You know, they really had a lot of guys doing double duty. They didn't look themselves like Victor Campanarts. They did still win a stage at the tour, though. So it is impressive. It's always impressive to me when a team like that, things don't, you don't have your A lineup and you can still produce, like get a tour stage win. Come to the VALTA

without your best GC guy and still be in the GC mix. Which which is my writer. Oh no, they won the team time trial. The team time trial. Yeah. Yeah. Which kind of if you're going to pick one is the best one for the team, right? Because it signals like, oh, we work together well as a team. Yeah, for sure, yeah. Before we take our first ad break, I do want to ask you about the green jersey classification. So after day, today, Pagachar, who scored zero points today, I believe. Still has a 22 point lead.

He has 82 points. Matthew Brennan's second at 60 points. Ethan Hayter, third, 57 points. Hater lost fake green. So now Brennan will be wearing green tomorrow. So, Christoph LePort, 52 points, Walvinart 5th with 49 points. They definitely are not going all in on Brennan for Green. They had Wal-Binart.

They set him up to take the intermediate sprint points. He gets 10th on the stage, gets seven points. You know, he's banking points. Tell us why would it be a bad idea to say, Matthew Brennan, we're all in for you on Green? Because I think in theory, if you just looked at the spreadsheet, you'd say that's the best thing to do. But why is that a bad idea?

Well, I think there's different reasons, Spencer. First of all, it's Matthew Brennan's first grand tour. He's young. They don't know if he can perform during three weeks. I'm going to guess he will be able to perform properly during three weeks because he's in great shape. He's a good writer. But that's an unknown.

So, you know, you can't bank everything on that and say, okay, at the rest of the team, okay, especially to all one art, you're completely at the service of Matthew. to Brennan and you cannot spend any energy for the green jersey. You cannot do this with a rider of the status and pedigree of like Walt Von Art. So I think Walt Von Art has obviously mentioned his ambitions for the points jersey, and rightfully so. I think we're only stage five, so he's up there. There's many stages where he will have the opportunity to go and breakaways and take points.

That's the way he's going to have to win the green jersey. if he wants to win it by going in breakaways. But I also think that's why Walt Von Arth is here. So we'll see after the next sprint stage what happens with Matthew Brennan. But I don't think they will take away that ambition from Walt Von Art for now. I think that's, they're going for stage wins with Matthew Brennan. And Walt Von Art will try to win the stage, of course. But I think his main ambition is the points classification.

Yes, and I think that's the right, even outside of O having respect for Walt Bernard, I think if you look at it, this is not the tour de France. You know, like the tour of the last few years, the sprint points will be 10K into a hard stage. So all you got to do is just get to the control, the early breakaway, sprint for the points and then you settle in. A lot of these sprint points are deep, deep into tough, tough stages. That's good for Wow, Van Arte. That's maybe not so good for a guy in his first grand tour. was also such a fast sprinter that who in their right mind would work in a breakaway with Matthew Brennan, you know?

So he's going to have a hard time getting into these breakaways because no one's going to want to work with him. And Van Art probably will have the advantage later in the race. But I'm not convinced sitting here today that anyone can really challenge Bagachar. If he keeps winning stages, it's going to be hard to beat them. Yeah. I mean, by definition, I think Bogachar has a good chance at winning the points of Jersey. even the mountain's classification.

If that interests him, I don't think it interests him. But just by the proper inertia of the race, he might actually get those two jerseys because he's going to be so many times in the front when it matters. That, I mean, there's not, I mean, I think the mountain stages are, what is it, 20 points or 30 points? The mountain stages are like yesterday's stage and Adora, I believe was 30 points.

No, no, sorry, 20 points. 20 points, okay. But then like stage six, which we'll talk about, I think that's 30 points. Mm-hmm. You know? So, and there's only two stages with 50 points. So there's two technically sprint stages. Yeah, yeah.

Not a lot of chances to, no, sorry, stage six is 20 points. And then you go to like stage seven. That's 20 as well, stage eight. That's 30. but that's not that that's not that big of a difference like 30 points for a sprinter when Pagatra is racking up 20 points

on a time trial on a mountain stage. It's hard to overcome that. Really it's the intermediate sprint points are super important here because on a lot of stages you'll have 20 points for the intermediate sprint 30 points for the finish or on a mountain stage it's 20. So the intermediate sprint points become

very important to this green jersey classification. Yeah. Which is good because it will make it interesting. But Yoan, let's take a quick break and then we'll talk about UAE. What's going on with UAE and doesn't matter for Pagotcher. Everybody, this Welta-Spagna coverage is brought to you by a presenting sponsor, Ultra Focus Pouches. Do you desperately need a nicotine pouch every 15 minutes just to feel normal? How many pouches, cups of coffee and or energy drinks per day do you need to stop yourself from crashing or even feeling nicotine withdrawal? And so, you know, suboptimal thing about using

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ultimate is the ultimate guilt-free pouch, delivering instant focus and mental clarity without nicotine or caffeine. And new customers can use code the move to get 15% off at take ultra.com. That's take ultra.com with code the move for 15% off. Make sure you check them out because you don't want to miss this and you don't want to miss that 15% off opportunity. So, Johan, outside of Visa, outside of Matthew Brennan, I think the story of the day is, you know, it didn't matter, did not technically affect the race because Pagatra is incredible. He can be anywhere he wants to be in the Peloton. But it's the absence of UAE at key points.

In the crosswind sections, Pagatra was alone a lot of the time. His team looked out of position, kind of frankly surprised that it was happening. And then going into the climb, he was also by himself at the front. He was in the right position. No team with him. The team had to come up later. Does this matter at all for the rest of the race? I would say it doesn't matter that much.

First of all, he already has a big advantage, which I expect in the next difficult mountain stages, he will only increase. So it can only matter when it's not mountain stages. There's a breakaway and there's wind. But I don't think that really matters either because Pogacca is really good in the crosswinds. It could matter, for example, if he's alone, there's echelons and he has a problem. and there's nobody next to him and the car is far behind, then it can matter, right, that you have nobody with you. Yes.

I have to say, I'm a bit surprised also to see that they're not as strong for the moment as I expected them to be. But I do think at the same time that they will improve and that they will reel around Pulachar and basically rise to the occasion. But yeah, for the moment, it doesn't feel like it's very solid, which can only make it more interesting for us spectators, right? At least there's one little point of vulnerability, if we can call it that way,

when Pugacchars isolated in a non-mountain stage. I repeat in a non-mountain stage. If it's in a mountain stage, it doesn't really matter because as soon as he's isolated, he goes. And then worst-case scenario for him, he's going to have single riders from other teams with him. So it doesn't really matter that much. much. But in non-mountain stages, it could be a problem. But at the same time, I do think that

UAE will get to the level where they have to be. Yeah. So the rule of thumb is just the faster, the faster the riding, the more important teammates are. Because if it's slow on a mountain, and Pagacchar can put 17 seconds per kilometer into people on a climb, well, okay, good luck. because if he really needs to, let's say you're up the road, he has no teammates. He's going to mow you down. Doesn't matter. Think about it. Anyone could have been in the breakaway yesterday, and it didn't matter because he could just

say, all right, Phyllis calls three minutes up the road. I better catch him. And he would have caught him. He could say, I'm isolated on a mountain stage and these guys are attacking me. I'm sick of them. All right. I'm just going to ride away from them. Now they're behind me.

But on a fast stage, like today, you in theory could get in trouble because you're out of position. Things happen faster. Groups get up the road. you can't close it as a single rider. You need a team or you need to have been in that move. That's when teammates are really important. We saw Chris Frum lose the 2016 wealth of Spain, due to being out of position early on a fast stage.

Things get out of hand quickly when the pace is high. Things are happening faster. Mistakes can compound versus a mountain stage. Yes. So in theory it matters. In practice, might not matter. And I think I have a feeling by the second, third week, we will not be. saying the team is poor do you think i think they will improve yeah i agree yeah you look at the quality

of this team and these guys are all so good they'll they'll get it figured out they're a very good team um anything else on today's stage johann before we take another break uh anything else uh yes uh the the non start of kian oucher spencer ken hiterbruch's uh co-leader i would say maybe at movistar Likmas is definitely the real leader, especially in the Vuelta. But so we saw Keanuiterbrug's crash on stage two. You know, then stage three, obviously he was already dropped, but the stage got canceled. And yesterday we saw him at the start, you know, completely looked like a mummy,

you know, like banded up on one side, on the other side, and then came in dead last. And then I saw an interview of him in the Belgian media saying that, he has a crack in his ankle. And my question is, why would you let a rider with a crack in his ankle start a stage like yesterday? That, I don't understand that. I don't understand. I don't understand that.

The team didn't communicate that, by the way. That communication came from Euterbrugs himself. And if that's really true, there's a little crack in his ankle, which, you know, obviously he has done X-rays. so there's no reason for him to say something that's not true. You know, it's not going to get, it's not going to improve during a grand tour if you have a cracked bone and especially an ankle. So I question the decision of letting him start. I would say even if the rider insists of, okay, I'm going to try,

which may be the case. You know, maybe he wants to try and maybe he wants to show to his team that, you know, the trusted confidence they have in him, that he deserves it. But, you know, that's not smart. And even if he decides, okay, I want to try, the team has to say there's no way. You can't start. You know, if there's, if, if we look at these x-rays, there's a crack in your ankle, it's over. You know, it's no way.

It's load bearing. Like you put, when you imagine pedaling a bike. Just picture that in your head. What is under pressure the entire time? The ankle. I don't understand that. Well, you can only make it worse. You can only make it worse.

potentially do serious damage. Maybe they said there's no risk of that. But yeah, Udrabeks, I feel kind of bad for him. You know, he had a weird start of his career. He's on Bora. He leaves Bora. You know, I don't think he handled that that well. Goes to Vizma.

Vizma doesn't resign him, I believe, or he leaves early? No, no, no. No, no. He also left early from Vizma. Left early. He wasn't happy with the position he had on the team. You know, he's a special guy. You know, he's a very ambitious guy.

Obviously, big talent as a young writer. But it's his third team. It's his third team. And these two first teams, he didn't finish his contract. So that's not a great situation. But now, I mean, apparently in Movistar, he found a team where he feels good and where he finds that the people believe in him, which is probably also the reason why he wanted to try today.

Right? Because we all remember him struggling at the beginning. of the tour where he started and he got sick. He got like a stomach and his stomach problem. And then he got fever overnight and did a few stages with fever, which is also not great. So yeah, big bummer for him, you know, two grand tours and two times having to abandon in the first few days. That's definitely a lot of bad luck for him.

Yeah. And the really bummer, the biggest bummer on this is when he's raced and is healthy this year. It's pretty good. Seventh, the Dolphine, fifth at Milan-Oterino, which isn't the biggest race. But, you know, there's a lot of DC guys who can't get fifth at Milan-O-Torino. You know, one-day racing's different. 23rd at Leage Best on the Age. He's been quite solid, actually, when he's been healthy and then happened to have a fever

and then break his ankle in his two biggest races of the year. So just really, really, really bad luck there. Yeah. I don't, yeah, I don't think I had anything else for the day. So should we take another quick break and then preview tomorrow's stage six, which is really tough. All right. We'll be right back. Okay, Johan, tomorrow stage six is tough, way tougher than we thought, you know, just glanced at the route.

So 177 kilometers. We're also south of, we're working our way south. We were in Andorra yesterday. Today we were south of Barcelona. Now we're moving, I guess we're going from the Costa Brava to the Costa Blanca over the course of a few days. and we are, it looked beautiful, by the way. I'm ready to vacation in Southern Catalonia. Also, today was stage five, and it was our fourth country.

I'd be curious if that's the most countries visited in the first five days of a grand tour ever. Could be, good be. Yeah, we're going south. We're flying down the coast. It's getting hotter every day because we're going south as well. So something to keep in mind. But 177 kilometers, 3,000 meters of climbing. And at the end of the stage, there is a 10K long climb.

7%. Like, well, it's not that hard, right? 20K of descent and flat before the finish. Nothing's going to happen on that. Well, the second half of the climb is way steeper than the first half of the climb. And, oh, by the way, the steepest part of the climb is gravel. So, and there's a cat two climb, cat three, sprint point, cat two, cat one, the final climb, descent, 10K to the finish on the flat. How do you think this is going to play out and who's going to win?

It can go both ways. a breakaway, Spencer, but I personally think it's going to be G.C. And no matter what happens, even if there's a breakaway, it's still going to be a GC battle on that last climb, I think. I have to say, I'm not a big fan of the gravel sections in Grand Tours. You know, it's an unnecessary risk to put riders through. And you can have mechanicals, you can have flat tires. I also saw somewhere, I don't know if that's confirmed or not, but I think there's a

deviation before the gravel section where the cars will have to take a different route and then meet them again at the top of the climb. That's not great. So if I would be a rider or a team manager or DS, I would be super nervous. I would not like it. I'm a spectator now. So I kind of like it to see you to watch. But it's not, I don't think gravel has its place in a grand tour. You have gravel races. You have races like Pari Roubaire. You have strata Bianca. When you go there, you know what will happen.

You know it. But I don't think gravel races in today's cycling should be part of a grand tour. You can lose everything there. Having said that, I think we're going to see G.C. battle on the last climb, independently whether there's a breakaway or not, or if there's a breakaway, they may get caught on that last climb. I think Pugacha will be the dominator tomorrow on that climb and probably also win the stage. If you look at that last climb, it's nine kilometers at 7% average, but the last part goes into the double digits, the steep part, which is gravel, is 11, 12 and 13%.

Nobody can follow him. You know, he's going to take off. And I can see it perfectly possible that he does the descent or the descent is, I mean, if he's, I mean, if he's, takes a minute on that climb which is conservative thinking right me yesterday he took a minute 30 in a five kilometer acceleration so this is nine kilometers here he can take uh he can definitely take more than a minute uh if he has a minute on top it's over you know he's uh doing the descent he's a great decender and then it's nine k to fit to the finish on the flats and if he gets away there's not going to be a lot of riders together behind him it's going to be the gc guys we see what happens there once he's gone It's a race for second.

There's not a great organization unless somebody really important is dropped from that group, which might happen. But I think Pogacar is winning tomorrow. Yeah. And the reason there's even like a greater chance of him winning than him investing resources into pulling the breakaway back and winning the stage is if this was a summit finish, the gap would be smaller. Because let's say he goes over the summit with a minute. Well, what's going to happen is he's going to, he can motivate himself. right he's on the same page as himself so he's going to ride as hard as he can to the finish line behind they're going to start saying well i don't want to put if you're oscaronle you don't want to

pull for felus gall you don't want to pull for pyramid rouglitch they're going to start to dick around a little bit and that gap could get up to two minutes so i definitely think he's going to try to go for this he's going to attack i i the gravel is a little if you're not the less you know about cycling or the less involved you are i think the more you into it you would be but can you imagine me in a mechanic? And you're like, well, we're not at a gravel race. We didn't really prepare for this. And then now we're like suddenly on stage six. We have got gravel. Like, it doesn't really seem that fair or like someone's GC could be over because they flat and there's no team cars here. That would be a shame. Yeah. Well, it's a team card thing. I assume that's going to be

the case because I saw somewhere like a deviation. But maybe that's just me reading the profile wrong. But, uh, but I mean, it would make sense to not send it. I mean, 10% gravel. It could be hard to get a And the way the, like the second to last climb is a loop. And then the last climb is the same loop, but there's an extension on top that's gravel. So I assume they'll just have the cars deviate on that first loop and they'll meet up with the riders. But it could get dicey if someone flats and there's no team card there. I hope everyone has the same pedals. That would be my advice.

But I ultimately think Pagotcha is going to win. The betting odds are Pagotcha plus 220. That's actually a really good price for Tad of Pagotcha on a stage of this race. Tobias Holland Johansen plus 1400 Lorenzo Fortunato plus 1400, Ben-2-2-Up plus 1,600, J-VineR plus 1,500, Wadminar plus 2,500, Yarno-Weedar plus 2,500, Pello, Bilbao plus 3,000, Oscar-onle plus 3,000, I think I would bet on Pagacchar. Yeah, I don't see why, I don't see how Oscar Only and Felix Gal can win this.

I mean, Oscar Only is kind of fast, he's not slow, so that would mean that the, you know, the G. guys stayed together and he can either sneak away with a late attack or within the sprint Primos is there also he's kind of fast. Pogacchar is fast. So I don't know how Felix Gall or only can win this. I think it's either Pogacar wins or somebody from the breakaway. Yeah.

And when it comes to the breakaway, I mean, you could you could imagine someone like, Walt Van Art wanting to get in the breakaway and winning from the breakaway. The question is how much does UAE invest in pulling that back? Probably quite a bit you'd think, right? I mean, tomorrow's another good opportunity to take another minute, a minute and a half. So I think that's worth it. And then once he has these five minutes, then you're saying, okay, now we're cruising. That's what normally you should say.

We don't know because it's Bogacha. So we don't know how he's going to do. maybe he goes for the the record of 13 wins of Freddie Martins. I don't know if I would recommend that. No. By the way, Spencer, I mean, we've talked about Freddie Martins quite a bit. I think I talked about winning 13 stages in the Vuelta

and then winning the GC. I went through some stats yesterday about Freddie Martins, who was a hero of mine, lives. close by of where I'm from in Belgium. It was supposed to be the next Merks, had a short career, but he was incredibly, incredibly strong. So little, I mean, this is actually mind-blowing. Back in the days, so the first time the Vuelta was in September,

was August and September, was in 95. I did that Vuelta. That's when I got on the podium in the Vuelta. That was the first time the Vuelta was in September. Before, it was the first ground tour. So mid-April to beginning of May. So Freddie Martins won that Vuelta and 13 stages and was leading from start to finish, by the way. I looked at the season.

So Freddie Martins, officially on pro-cycling stats, it doesn't show up. It shows 44 wins on pro-cycling stats in 1977. 44 wins in one season, but officially it's 55. 55 race wins for 15. Freddie Martin's in one season. Now, here it gets even worse or it gets even better or more impressive. So, Freddie

Martin started the season, won a bunch of races. He won an envelope with Newsblood. Back in the days, it was called it folk. He won a stage race in history. He won parrinius. He won parades. Plus stages every time. He won

he won Samana Catalana, I think also, which was another race in two in Catalonia. He also won later later in the season. in Tour of Catalonia, so he won both of those races. Went to the Vuelta, won 13 stages and the G.C. And then I checked when the Vuelta finished, which was with the beginning of May.

And four or five days later, he was at the start of the Gero and won seven stages in nine days or in 10 days and then had a crash and abandoned. Unbelievable. I mean, like, who can do this? This is just unreal. It's kind of crazy to think. That's better than strong overrider for any Martins was back in the day. If you just isolate those months, that's probably a better stretch than anyone's ever had, right? Be hard to come.

And was actually while he had those, was actually the reigning world champion because I think if, I think he won the world championship in 1976. I had it in front of me and then I closed it. I also think for your pub trivia, that's got to be the best season. in a world champion's jersey, right? He did win in 76. Yeah. I think that takes the cake.

55 wins. Yeah, for sure. Almost sweep Perry Nice and win the overall. Almost sweep the Vuelta win the overall lead start to finish. When, what did you say? It was like seven of the first nine of the zero. Yeah, he said he raised, he has one year in which he won zero to tie stages. And the zero.

He has seven zero stage wins. How many? Hold on a second. Hold on everybody. Grand Tours. Yeah. I think he has 15, 15 stages in this work. This is crazy.

I know he won. He's only 11th all time of Grand Tour stage wins. 35. Well, he didn't. He had a short career. You know, I mean, after that, he kind of, his form went down. And then miraculously, he came back in 1981. I do remember he was, he had a really bad start of the season.

and for some reason his DS decided to take him to the Tour de France with no results. And he won five stages in the green jersey. And then later in that season, he won the world championships again in Prague. Not too bad. Against G7 and Bernardi. I mean, what's crazy is you look at his grand tour stage wins in his career. And he has 13 wins in the Volta and seven in the Euro. And that's in, he got that in one year.

that that's freaking crazy crazy one season yeah see alive pretty important 20 20 grand two stages yeah shout out man that's nuts that is nuts well yeah yeah yeah i don't think fagotcher's gonna get that but he probably does win tomorrow i think it i mean i'm a little nervous about a breakaway but i think you a i think they go all in control this win stage six they control nine they win nine, Pagotcha has what, four stage wins going to the first rest day and they start to chill out from there. I would imagine that's how this plays out. I would hope.

Yeah. But there's such a good opportunity for him. Blow everything up. Probably. You know, I think he really wants to target these stages where there's descent and flat after the climb because he can actually increase his lead more than if it was a summit finish. I'm going to go Pagotcha plus 220. I actually already bet on it full disclosure.

after the first time we recorded this podcast. Anything else? Anything else before we go for the second time? All right. Well, thanks so much, Johan. I hope I don't see you until tomorrow after the stage, which will break down. It will probably be pretty interesting. And we'll also preview stage seven.