Theology in the Raw - 819: An Expert's View on Covid-19, Masks, and Vaccines

Episode Date: September 14, 2020

John is back for the 3rd time to give us an update on where we're at with all things Covid-19. Wearing masks, the future vaccine, what should churches do, where will this whole thing end up? John is a Senior Biosafety Officer for The University of Chicago – Howard T. Ricketts Laboratory, a Regional Biocontainment Laboratory, as well as a Registered Biosafety Professional with ABSA International (American Biological Safety Association). John was a lead trainer with the Duke Infectious Disease Response Training (DIDRT) Program, funded through an NIEHS-NIH Grant, that was designed to prepare workers at risk of infectious disease exposure. Additionally, he is a certified HAZWOPER/HAZMAT Trainer. John has over 15 years’ experience working in high containment laboratories (BSL3) with high consequence pathogens (i.e. anthrax, plague, highly pathogenic avian influenza, Brucella abortus), with an effective history of training lab workers, clinical care workers, first responders, first receivers and custodial workers to safely work with and control high consequence pathogens such as MERS, SARS and Ebola. Watch this episode of the podcast on YouTube Support Preston Support Preston by going to patreon.com Venmo: @Preston-Sprinkle-1 Connect with Preston Twitter | @PrestonSprinkle Instagram | @preston.sprinkle Youtube | Preston Sprinkle Check out his website prestonsprinkle.com If you enjoy the podcast, be sure to leave a review.

Hello, friends. Welcome back to another episode of Theology in the Raw. I want to let you know that I am going to go back to podcasting once a week. I did the twice a week thing for the summer because of COVID and societal upheaval and people are at home. And to be honest, I just had some extra time over the summer and I had some amazing conversations with people and I just couldn't wait to get them out if I kind of trickled them out over, you know, uh, one week at a time or whatever. So, um, but we're going back to one week because I don't, I just can't sustain that pace. So when we, uh, one podcast a week, uh, every Monday and this episode, we have John C. Bivona back for the third time. John, as you will hear, um, he's been on

twice already. He is an expert in infectious diseases. And I just have kind of made it a habit every couple months to check in with John to get an update on where are we at in the science? What is actually going on? So we talk about masks quite a bit because that seems to be something that just keeps kind of flaring up in the media and, uh, in society. Yeah. Um, yeah. Anyway, so we get the truth about masks and see, you know, what kind of recent studies have been done to either show that masks are helpful, unhelpful, um, or, you know, uh, are they a lifesaver? Are they irrelevant? And on and on. So we talk about masks. We also talk about, um, the vac vaccine, vaccine, where are we at

with the vaccine? What's that going to look like? And then we just talk about how COVID is affecting society as a whole. This was pre-recorded about a month ago. So it is a little, hopefully it's not dated. Hopefully John's still alive. Hopefully he hasn't renounced everything he talked about in this episode. I don't think he has. So anyway, please welcome back to the show, the one and only John C. Bavone. Hello, friends. I'm back here with my friend, John C. Bavona. John is a third-time guest on Theology in a Row. That puts you in a really elite class. A lot of you guys know who John is, if you've been listening to this podcast, at least the last few months, he's been on a couple of times in the last few months. So John, why don't we start, just give us your credentials and then we can jump into talking about the scientific

data behind masks. Yeah, sure. So I work for the University of Chicago. I work in a high containment facility. It's called, it's the Howard T. Ricketts Laboratory. It's a biosafety level three facility. Excuse me. We work with high consequence pathogens. So those are pathogens that are known to, you know, to really to be potential for pandemic. So COVID and the SARS virus fits right in there. really my main job is I work out at this biosafety level three facility and I do a lot of training, risk assessment in regards to, you know, agent specific or pathogen specific, you know, how it's transmitted, the incubation period, how stable is it in the environment, how can you kill it, how long does it last in the environment, stuff like that. Stuff that I've been doing for 20 years and now it's almost mainstream now um with people kind of understanding the terms and um so that's really the the main thrust of what i do i've been with the university of chicago for 20 years um so i'll come up on my anniversary in october so so that is really the

thrust of what i do um in the past i've been involved in some really cool um initiatives really nationwide so if people remember eb outbreaks, I really love the University of Chicago and really the city of Chicago. God really put me in a really cool position just because of the background of working in a high-containment lab, you know, how to train, you know, clinical care workers on how to deal with respiratory pathogens that are transmitted by droplets and aerosols. So if you're listening or watching,

I will say it because John won't say it, but John knows more than you do about masks. I'm just trying to stir things up, man. I know. All right, so give us, and so in each episode we've addressed this, but I know that opinions keep shifting. Even some of the experts have said different things. I think there's some level of distrust and suspicion now

among a lot of parts of the population, at least. Yeah, yeah. All the way from like, this whole COVID thing doesn't exist. It's made up, all the way to we're all going to die. Let's just start digging our own graves and everything in between um let's just start with masks so there's been differences of opinion i mean i remember reading back in january that the who said they don't do anything surgeon general has a tweet out in february telling people stop buying masks you know the medical profession i think he was saying like don don't buy N95 mask because the medical professionals need it. But there has been kind of some variation. So

give us your professional, I wouldn't even say opinion, professional perspective on whether or not masks should be worn and whether or not they're effective and helpful. Yeah, so much there. Where do I start? So just starting in the very beginning, I think public health in a lot of different areas with this pandemic really hasn't hit the mark a lot, especially on masks, where they've said things that could be misinterpreted by people who don't understand masks and what they do. So, yeah, I get that. If I'm just a regular person that doesn't work with personal protective equipment and masks and how they work, and I see kind of how this went from even Fauci came out early on, and he said that don't wear masks.

And the reason he said it, I mean, he wasn't transparent, obviously. He said it because he wanted to make sure that the health care professionals had N95s and surgical masks. So I'm not sure I agree with that, but I understand the logic of why he said it. the logic of why he said it you know so obviously when when you have the guy that's leading you know do a 180 distrust certain general came out and said don't wear masks now what he was doing was this was before that we before he came out and said hey you don't need a mask and this was before what we knew about asymptomatic transmission, meaning that you can have zero symptoms and transmit it. So now we're it's like 40 percent, right? Between 25 and 40 percent of people don't have any symptoms and

can transmit it. So obviously. So he I mean, if you wanted to be really, you know, not nitpicky, but, you know, if you were kind of honest about it and you didn't have a horse and he came, yeah, he dropped the ball, too. So there's no doubt that there has been. And then obviously this is so political. Right. So people will take take that and run with it. And misinformation starts on the right and the left. the right and the left. But just even, you know, bigger picture is that a lot of times scientists in public health, they really know a language inside the laboratory. But when they get in front

of a mic and they have to speak in front of people that speak a different language, there's a lot that's lost in translation. And I have been in this 20 years and I've seen principal investigators, what we call them, get in front of audience. And I have been in this 20 years and I've seen principal investigators, what we call them, get in front of audience. And I think purposely they speak a different language just to say, hey, I'm way up here. I'm in the ivory tower. That's what we say at the University of Chicago, the ivory tower. These are the people that, you know, set all the laws and regulations in general. So I think part of that is, you know, part of that is there's an intent to just say, hey, I'm better than you. And a lot of times if people don't understand, they don't ask the

question. So, but they've done a poor job in general, not everybody, of explaining the pathogen, of even explaining how novel it is, right? I think people that are in my field in biosafety, they really are the experts when it comes to the pathogen and how it works and how you can stop it. And if it's new, how it changes. I mean, if you look at some of my interviews that I've done from the beginning, you know, I mean, I'm really thankful to God that's put me in this situation, but there hasn't been too much that I've changed. And that's been on mass where their national leaders I've seen have changed. I've seen people that don't have any experience in personal protective equipment and mass say they don't work. Um, and even there is, there's a disconnect between, and they'll use it for political gain.

Let me try to just kind of explain this in the right way where they're answering a question that's not asked. So I've seen people on the right say masks don't work. They don't eliminate the virus. And then I've seen people on the left. They say masks are the be end end all. They're going to do it. You know, they're going to stop everything, prevention. And both are wrong.

I think what is science that has been proven over years of people wearing surgical masks, you know, when you have a surgeon operating over you, they wear a surgical mask. The reason they wear a surgical mask is so their droplets are reduced so they don't fall when you have a chest wide open, right? When you go to a dentist's office and you have the dentist wearing the surgical mask, so their droplets don't go into your mucous membranes. So it's not new, but I think overall it's really been a poor job of explaining masks. Even it's really settled that if you're saying the right thing, masks, it's settled science that they reduce transmission. They do not eliminate your exposure. They reduce it. When I work with,

so I work with, and there's been a huge confusion about respirators and masks and people that are on TV that are speaking like experts have no idea what a respirator, the difference between a respirator, this is early on still sometimes they don't know the difference between a respirator this is early on still sometimes they don't know the difference between a respirator and a mask the limitations so it's really been a poor job I think from the top trying to explain that and that's what I've been doing for 20 years I do respirator fit tests I train on the respiratory program I know everything about it I'm still learning obviously but what we do with respirators is we do quantitative and qualitative fit tests. So quantitative is a number. So if I wear a respirator, um, I think you guys can see that. So before I, before I can wear it, if I'm a medical professional and I work in a lab, I put this on and there's a test to quantitative tell the difference between what's outside

and what's inside. It counts. It counts the number. So that's quantitative. Qualitative is like a smell or a taste. So I put my respirator on. First they'll spray like a banana oil or a sugar in my mouth. Hey, can you taste this, John? Yes.

Then I put my respirator on. They spray that same aerosol. Now can you smell it? Can you taste it so that's a qualitative fit test and those have been for years and years they've been the standard the the osha standard for that and for masks you can do you can do it like a do-it-yourself you know qualitative fit test where you can put on a mask and you can sneeze in a mirror with a mask and you can sneeze in a mirror with a mask and you

can sneeze in a mirror without a mask you can do the candle where you put a candle you know you can try to blow out a candle with a mask without a mask and it's it's just it's settled science that it reduces it doesn't eliminate okay um what i'm gonna i'm gonna just walk through people just a really quick study and i'm going to send you some slides. Maybe you can kind of plug this in. OK. But so after the Ebola outbreak, I was I had the opportunity to work with a Duke infectious disease response training. It was really a nationwide adventure, a nationwide training that went out throughout the United States.

And we train people on basically what we do for emergency responders, clinical care workers, stuff like that. So this is from the Duke University and it's been published in Science Advances. And it's really, it's kind of like something that you can do at home if you have the technology. But what they did is they took all the different masks, you know, from an N95 to a surgical mask, to cloth mask to a fleece, the bandana, they did it all. And what they did is they just, they had four people speaking. They did a proof of principle. So they did it 10 times for each mask. And what they, they had lasers and then they had a camera showing droplets. So they did a normal where someone was just talking and you saw the droplets and they could count it. And then they put all these, and you saw the droplets and they could count it.

And then they put all these, the 14 different masks on and they showed the reduction. So I'm going to send you. So what they did, there was 14 different, obviously a surgical mask, a valve N95. So you have the N95 with the valve on. They did, you know, cotton, four different types of cottons, bandanas, fleeces, propylene, cotton masks, different layers. So they did all 14. So what they showed is a really cool graph, but they should, one, you know, if you see like a standard of one was people talking without a mask. And then they did all 14 of these masks and 13 of them reduced it by at least 50%. The N the n95 was at zero surgical mask was close to zero

but everything the cotton swap the only one and this is really kind of cool is that you know those fleece masks that the athletes wear so they start with the neck and it's really stretchy so that actually increased the droplets because what happened was you had these larger droplets when they were talking and when they went through the fleece they actually separated into more droplets that was that was above one so if you think of one was talking without a mask everything was at least 50 percent reduced it by 50 percent except for this fleece um this fleece mask so so that's kind of a kind of a of how we got here but i think kind of even the disconnect and it comes from both political sides i haven't seen people on the left

saying making it if you don't wear a mask you're you're killing people you know all over which i think that's disingenuous because it it does reduce but it doesn't eliminate. And it's, I know early on it was, people would say, it doesn't help you contract it as much as give it. Is that still where we're at? So yeah, important term, as much. So obviously if I wear a mask, I am doing much more protection for my neighbor than for me, but I am still reducing my exposure. Remember the key word is reduction.

It's not elimination. Right. But it reduces a lot more for my neighbor than for myself. The bigger droplets, droplets, obviously if my neighbor, you know, spits, coughs, talks, it's going to reduce the larger droplets. But, um, for me. So I going to reduce the larger droplets for me. So I remember the first time we talked, you helped me understand the difference between aerosols and droplets. So it makes – I mean this just seems like basic, not even science, just common sense. Like if you have something over your mouth and you sneeze, that stuff that you can see coming out of your mouth will be reduced but what about aerosols just breathing because you're still you know if i have like a

a handkerchief or something you see people with handkerchiefs and i'm like i don't know is that really reducing the the aerosols coming through and is covid spread through aerosols? Has that been pretty settled? Yeah. So I think it's settled that it can be aerosolized. We talk whether it's to the degree of it being transmitted by aerosol is still kind of to be determined. Right. We do know it can be aerosolized. There has been studies, people in restaurants where it's be aerosolized. There has been studies, people in restaurants where it's been aerosolized. You know, they're doing all these studies now, you know, with the air conditioning on, with the air conditioning off, does air conditioning make it more stable in the environment,

stuff like that. So, you know, it's settled that droplet, we know droplets for sure is the main route of transmission. Aerosol is still to be determined i think it i think it is you know but that a degree there was some pressure maybe a month a month ago from a lot of these different scientists saying hey who and cdc you need to come out and say that it you know that's it can be aerosol transmission and they didn't you know even early on university of chicago you know we have agent profiles and that we say possible okay so i think it's't you know even early on university of chicago you know we have agent profiles and we say possible okay so i think it's possible you know i think you'll you know out of you know every 100 you know people that are transmitted maybe you know one less than one so it's possible but it's much more probable probable with droplets but the other question is you know if you just

have a mask you know any of those 15 masks those any of those 15 masks, those aren't going to stop. Those aren't going to stop. Like this is a surgical mask, right? Yeah. That's not going to do anything for aerosols. It's not. The respirator will, right? It will not, right?

Oh, okay. Because aerosols are smaller and they're going to go right through this. The droplets, the micro droplets will be stopped by this. But the respirator is what stops not only the droplets, the micro droplets will be stopped by this, but the respirator is what stops not only the droplets, but the aerosols. Those are the really fine, the ones that work in gravity are, I think, less than five microns, and they'll go right through masks, really, especially the finer ones, whereas the N95s, they'll stop droplets and aerosols. But remember, if you wear a respirator, that's why the big push was for healthcare workers because they do procedures that aerosolize. You know,

when you're doing intubation, you do some procedures where you take a droplet and you just pretty much jam stuff in a mucous membrane and it sprays and it becomes aerosols. So that's why it's really important because most of us are not exposed to aerosols. It's possible, but it's much higher likely when you're doing procedures that aerosolize it. So just wearing a bandana in the store, if no one is shooting droplets at each other, if it's just walking past,

breathing the same air within a few feet, that's not going to do much or anything with just strictly aerosols no no very few i mean you know even when you see this graph from duke you know the bandana is actually outside of the fleece which is actually worse than not wearing anything the bandana is at about 50 reduction okay um and then everything else is probably is, you know, the majority is less than 20% or 80% reduction. I don't see people talk. Cause I feel like early on it was, you know, people kind of mocking each other for wearing these, you just bandanas, whatever. Like that's like, if you're going to get a real mask, that might help, but this putting

something over your mouth, isn't gonna, but now I don't see that conversation happening as much in the public, like the actual quality of thing you're putting around your mouth i know a lot of restaurants here they'll have stacks of mass um if you don't have one well i mean now it's you know you're required to but um they'll still hand out but some of these are so cheap and flimsy and like i'm like is this really doing is it just a symbolism of it or do you not know that this is really going to – Yeah, I think outside of fleece, everything else reduces it. Fleece, it's funny that – all the athletes, funny, you watch a baseball game or something like that

or these coaches just watch it. I don't know if they're just doing it so people don't see their face when they're talking to hide the signals. I don't know. But, yeah, those – what they found out is that that actually increases what comes out of your mouth, which is pretty cool. What about the whole just why are some Christians anti-mask? I mean, some Christians believe in a flat earth, so I get that.

But it seems like, yeah, help me understand. Is it because Trump for so long seemed to be kind of anti-mask or didn't wear one and a lot of hyper trump supporters in the christian community or like why i don't i don't understand if it if it has been shown clearly scientifically to reduce especially if everybody wore one especially inside why what's the counter argument what am i missing here is there like some study that has been published that says they don't do anything that or well early on yeah so early on i think you saw some so i don't know the term what is it called confirmation bias right where you have a bias hey

i think this works then you see one study that you know it. So you put it on Facebook and all see, this is, this is wrong. And yeah, I think so. It's funny that our church is, you know, we, you know, now, now Indiana is mandatory mask out, you know, when you're, you're out in stores and schools are starting soon. So you have to wear a mask and, you know, our church or, you know, our pastor does a great job to say, Hey, we want you wearing masks. You know, when you're walking in, when you're walking out. We have stuff, you know, distanced, you know, when you sit down. But Preston, I bet there's still a good percentage. The percentage at Walmart, at stores, at schools is probably less than 10%.

But it's higher in churches. And I don't get that, you know, I mean, it makes me sad. It really does that. I even remember sending an email to someone in the church and I said, you know, this is after Indiana mandated it because it saves lives. And it's true, you know, it's not, it's not a hundred percent but you know in the christian virtues of your neighbor and considering others better and laying down your life i don't it really makes me sad i don't understand and sometimes it's just with a boldness too people walk in and they're like you're darn right i don't have a mask and And I don't, you know, I don't see that in scripture anywhere.

And it's just, it hurts, you know, it's like, gosh, and they have me. I feel like you guys have, you know, not to get on a high horse, but I've been given, you know, the church really a lot of good information. And it's not everybody, you know, but it's I don't know what it's a reflection of, you know, but I do know in general, you know, right wing. And, you know, I think I don't think Trump has been the best proponent of it, obviously. And, you know, people, you know, there's some Christians, if you have the whole spectrum that love Jesus, passionate about Jesus. Jesus, passionate about Jesus. But if the president says one thing, they're, they're, you know, they're 100% on board. And, you know, and I get it, because I was like that I grew up, I think I said early on, you know, I was, my early 20s were in the 90s with the religious

right and the moral majority. And I was right you know and that's that was me go go you know kingdom you know heaven on earth and we can do this and so i understand um but it's just strange how it got politicized i don't it's like and it just maybe it just shows how deeply tribalistic and polarized we are that um things like wearing a mask can be like a partisan issue so you know it's just weird to me it's like how did and yes and people here's the thing that just doesn't make sense is that the same people that won't wear masks if they went to a hospital room with immunocompromised cancer patients that say you know someone had a cancer patient they say can you wear this mask to protect my kid they They'd be like, oh, of course.

Would they ever make that stand to say no? Or would they ever, if a surgeon was doing surgery and the, you know, the guys said, hey, surgeon was going to do open heart surgery, had a little cold. And they're like, you know what? Just so you know, I'm not going to wear my surgical mask today when I do surgery on you. Just some Christian belief that I have. And your risk is low and it's only going to reduce the exposure. It's not going to eliminate it. Like you'd be like, what? That Christian would be like, no, put a mask on, even if it helps a little bit, you know. So it's just, you know, or if someone was doing your teeth and they were breathing all over you, your dental hygienist and coughing, you'd be like, wait a minute, what's going on? Stupid mask.

Yeah. I've had pastors tell me they've had people leave their church because they've required masks. Several families have left church. I mean, I could think of several. I won't name them or even, you know. One person, I think, even said that it's the mark of the beast, the mask, you know, just, I mean, like there's, there's, there's, there's weirdness in Christianity. There's weirdness in any religion. There's weirdness among atheists, you know? So, I mean, you're always going to get, that's fair, but it's just, it's, it's a lot more weirdness than I'm comfortable with in the church.

But what are your thoughts on, do you think, and maybe you might punt and say this isn't in your area, but I mean, do you think churches should obey governing authorities when like in California, they're told not to gather indoors, large gatherings, you know, more than 10 indoors, which means church, church gatherings, or, you know more than 10 indoors which means church church gatherings or you know or especially don't sing because you're just spreading that all around yeah i will use so one of the uh the best or the most common answers in biosafety is it depends we always say well it depends it depends on like engineering controls administrative controls it depends on you know how the pathogens transmit it so i would say the same thing with

church it depends you know i think there is a time i don't think it's a black and white issue where hey the government's saying you can't worship maybe they're just saying you need to change a little bit go outside or reduce the size or go six feet. So I, yeah, so I would think that there, case by case, that, hey, if God's really, you know, telling somebody, it's kind of the thing of conscience, right? I think you had a really good blog years ago, I don't know, about conscience that really kind of spoke to me that, you know, it's just like an individual might have, yeah, it's okay to drink beer or not drink beer, have a gun or not have a gun. Or, you know, I think that this could be really a situation as long as I think as long as you, so another thing that we

use in biosafety is we have institutional biosafety committee. So we have committees where we have all these, it's kind of like an elder board, right? You have all these different gifts and views and not silo at all. So everybody thinks differently. And it's really refreshing to, to be challenged and not in a way where you take it personally. Oh, I didn't even think about that. So I think if you have that in your leadership where you have people that aren't, you know, they're not afraid or they're, you know, of either the board or the leadership, but you really have a freedom, boy, you've really created a fantastic culture and leadership and you can really, um, have a good discussion. Hey, what's the pros? What's the cons? How many elderly people, how many young

people do we have? Do we have a lot of immunocompromised? Do we reach out to, you know, long-term care facilities? Right. So it all, where are you at? Can you go outside? Are you going to be in Chicago? You know? So yeah, so it depends. Well, uh, talk to us about vaccines. Um, do we have a vaccine, um, in the works that's promising? When will it be out? Will that send us back to normal? Uh, could we get back to normal before the vaccine? I know this is, send us back to normal? Could we get back to normal before the vaccine? I know this is, these are all big questions. Oh, right. Yeah. So I think this is just my opinion because I work with vaccine research, right? So this is what we do at my laboratory along with trying, you know, therapeutics and stuff like therapies. And, but I don't know, because you can have something

that's really, so there's different phases. I work in the really initial phases where it's kind of exploratory, right, where we're doing we're doing stuff in the lab and then we do stuff with with animals and stuff like that. So and then once we see it, then it really kicks into the different phases where you start work. You do human trials, volunteer stuff like that. So I don't really see that. I really see the early stages, you know. But so I'm reading, I read a lot of stuff from, you know, different studies and how safe they are, how effective they are. I just actually heard that Russia has one. So, but so I don't, you know,

I don't know. But it I what I don't think is I don't think it's going to be like a measles where it's like 90% one shot and we're good to go. I think that this is endemic, which means it's pretty much here to stay, like the flu, where it becomes seasonal to different degrees. It's possibly they might need to tweak the vaccine every year. You might need multiple doses. But I don't think, you know, I think it's more likely than not that it's going to it's going to help. OK. You know, but I don't think it's going to be like this one size fits all. Take a shot and we're going to eradicate it. It's possible, but I don't think that's likely. When do you see it coming out? When is it going to be available to the public?

Yeah. So I think it's because they're going to have to go on. I'm just kind of going through my mind the timeframe of different phases. I know they've started different phases with different vaccines. But you have to do a huge proof of principle to do it safe. I'd be very shocked. So this is why I love the separation of powers i don't want i don't want politics you know driving this because you know just for safety or efficacy i want it done right so i probably next year that you know um preston hopeful it's possible i guess it could be

late this year um but i would hope that they don't do something unless it's, um, has a good efficacy, right? So if it's like 20, if it's safe, but it, you know, it affects 10% of the people, you know, I would hope that they would look for something better that's effective and obviously safe. Um, so, but yeah, I think that's a, it's still a million dollar question. It's possible that we might not see anything, you know, and we have to do a herd immunity thing where it's just, just, you know, this tinder of fire for two years and three. I mean, it's just, yeah. And what about the, where are we at with, uh, if you've, if you've gotten it, can you get it again? And if you get it again,

are you at risk for dying or once you get it, are you, are you good to go? So the question is, do you have antibodies and for how long so when you when you get a disease you know when you get an illness your body produce has immune response you get antibodies that will fight it so you don't get it again so i think the more likely is that you know you do get antibodies um and they're good for months not years oh here's a here here's kind of the the the negative thing of being asymptomatic so what they're thinking is obviously if you have a severe illness a lot of symptoms that means your viral load is pretty high right so you really need some antibodies to have an immune response for your body the problem is when

you're asymptomatic and 40 of people are asympt, so you don't have a lot of virus in your body. So you don't need a lot of antibody. You don't need a huge immune response. So you wonder what those people, because it's new, we don't have a lot of numbers. You're wondering if people can get it every six months, every year because they, you know, had like a slight cold or a slight headache. And so those are the things that this is what i really appreciate about fauci is that and i know fauci is a trigger word like mass you know but i really appreciate with something like this where you have to be slow and methodical and you

have to take all these different factors in like okay it's good that 40 asymptomatic but what does that mean for immune response? What happens if it comes back more severe? Stuff like that. So, yeah, so, yeah, that's what antibody response, what that looks like. So if you got it and you're asymptomatic, then that would have, are you saying that would have less of a, like you can get it again more easily versus if you had a strong response. Yeah, I don't want to speak in absolutes, but yeah, it's possible.

I would think just because the more virus you have, the more of an antibody, you know, immune response you have. Now, that's not a blanket statement. There's going to be some people, you know, I've seen some studies with people's, you know, their vaccine history that's actually helped them with their immune response. You know, that doesn't mean that's a proof of principle, but that's just one study. So, yeah, so there's going to be a lot of factors. But you said it doesn't make them immune for life.

So if somebody did get it, they have tons of symptoms, they get through it. You're saying a couple years later, three, four, five years later. Yeah. So this isn't going away. You're saying this is going to, I mean, the flu is the flu. it's here every every year right you're saying there's a lot of a lot of research so it's just like flu is here to stay there's a lot of people i think more people than that think that it might be just here to stay to different you know kind of like flu season or spring season it just goes up and down up and down it's you know so it's not 100 but so if

that's true we can't just lock down forever and die in our living rooms up and down it's you know so it's not 100 so if that's true we can't just lock down forever and die in our living rooms like is it would you say i know sweden i don't think they ever really closed down they just said we're just gonna yeah develop herd immunity i think and i think they're doing pretty good they've never closed schools and everything like is that do you think that's what we should do like say if it's here to stay then yeah that's a good question. I don't know. I think because it's so prevalent in our society now, you know,

I think we have to start having some sort of controls, you know. We can't just, obviously I don't think we're going to go to lockdown again. Yeah. Yeah, so I don't think we could do that. I mean, I'm not an expert. Public health is not my expertise, but I don't think we could do that. I mean, I'm not an expert. Public health is not my expertise, but I don't think we could do that now just because it's going to be, wow, we're going into school season. And schools really are and children in general really haven't been exposed because they got let out in March. So I don't know what's going to happen with schools.

You know, my hope is that we're going to be OK. I don't know what's going to happen with schools. You know, my hope is that we're going to be okay. But, wow, you can – we've never really – I think the hope was that we – the case would be, you know, in the hundreds, and then we'd start school. So we had that buffer, and I don't think we have the buffer now. Do you – are things – I know we had the – would you say we're in a second wave right now? Or because we kind of flattened the curve early on,

that we're still kind of in a flat first wave? Yeah, I think so. Where are we at right now? Do you feel like the outbreak is way worse than you expected, or are you like, no, we're doing pretty good, or where are we at? I thought that we would be very plateaued low going into the fall. I think if you remember the study that i talked about was i had all the i think there was four different you know scenarios yeah all the scenarios

none of the scenarios had a first wave lasting this long and that's a reflection of the united states and you know 50 states 50 different policies and procedures and so yeah i think there's some places where like i think chicago is starting to see some numbers of so we would be considered like a second wave because we went up and down but then some so then you remember i think we talked in march there was waves and in chicago new york but down south we really hadn't seen anything and then texas and arizona you know florida got hit that was really their first wave so i think nationwide you're seeing some places start maybe second wave other places are just seeing a first wave so because it's i don't i'm not a you know historian with pandemics

but every scenario i saw i i didn't see second wave for Chicago, first wave for Texas and stuff like that. So it's just all over. Doesn't it also have to do with we're testing a ton more people now and the asymptomatic, like that first wave could have been a lot bigger because there was asymptomatic people not being counted, right? Like we don't know how many people. Oh, absolutely. Yeah. So what I've heard people say, and I don't know how many people oh and so yeah so what we're experiencing so what i've heard people say and i don't know if it's right or not like even though

like like i look at idaho almost every state it kind of did this flatten a little bit and then the other is huge like summer spike um but that we're not sure how big that first spike was in terms of how many people actually had it. Absolutely, for a lot of different reasons. Because of asymptomatic, because of people, we didn't have the testing available. I saw CDC, the guy, I forgot, Reed Field, or the guy from, he says, with that first wave, it was probably 10% of the actual number. We were probably at 90% where people either didn't go to the doctor, didn't have symptoms. And yeah, there is some truth. I know Trump trumps that or trumpets

that all the time that we test more than any other nation. And that's true. That's part of the equation. There's no doubt that by millions, I think, you know, the United States is testing more. So that's part of that's why I think the positivity rate is, is a more accurate number. So what's the rate of every a hundred people that you test, you know, and I think that's what schools and States are looking for in regards to going back on forward is, you know, how many out of every hundred, do you think we should go back to school? I know that's a hot topic, right? Yeah.

I've actually had a couple of people email me in regards to this conversation, what do you think about school? So just personally, so I have two college kids that are going back, and they're doing a hybrid where they're going to do some classes, and my daughters are in nursing, so it's all very practical. They can't learn how to take care of patients in the classroom. And then my son is in high school and they have an option of going to school or e-learning and we're sending them back, you know? Um, I think that's the right

choice. You know, I'm very comfortable with that. Um, so sending kids back to school, it depends, you know, on the area. So if I was like in Florida, some of these places in Miami, I'd be like, Oh, this is a good idea. The positivity rate is so high, you know, but I wonder what they're going to do, you know, you know, what are parents going to do when you have positive cases? Because it's going to happen, right? Going to school, it's an incubator, right? Kids are all, they have all these policies and procedures, but they're kids, you know, 16 year old kids. So they go into the bathroom and they do stupid stuff. And, you know, so I don't know how you can police it, but I wonder what they're kids you know they're 16 year old kids so they go into the bathroom and they do stupid stuff and yeah you know so i don't know how you can police it but i wonder what they're going to do when you have 10 cases in the school are you going to shut it down again

yeah you know five cases because you're going to you have parents on that spectrum too that are like we go to school no matter what and then i'm not you know one case we're shutting it down and so i think it's nobody knows if we're going to get through the year, if they're going to e-learn again and stuff like that. So I think school districts are doing their best. The death rate, from what I've heard, I mean, if you're – and I know this has been said a lot, but if you look at the specific numbers, like the odds of you, if you're under 25, I don't have a

health condition, the death rate's the same as a seasonal flu. Is that accurate? I've heard. Yeah, that's accurate. And the people that, that, that, uh, quote that the most are the people that don't believe the case number. So it's really ironic thing. Oh, really? Okay. The people that are saying this is, you know, the more, more kids die of, and they're right. More kids die of flu and pneumonia and more kids, you know, the mental health. Absolutely. But they're cherry picking a study. They'll be like, yes, look at this with a kid, which they're right.

But then they'll say the infection, right. Or they're the same people in general, not everybody in general, that are saying this is made up or the numbers aren't that big. So it's like, wait, you can't have it both ways you can't say you don't believe any of the studies but you know this here's a study from the cdc that says that kids have a bigger risk of dying of flu so yeah that's just my uh yeah but so the risk absolutely the concern because i've heard some people say you know if if somebody typically on the right says we're going back to school then they get accused of like well you just want to murder children in the classroom it's like that it's not where the kids are at risk right it would be more of them bringing it home and hanging out with the grandma or the teachers that might be older have more health conditions like

i can understand that but i i don't the accusation that you don't care about our children that that seems like well we don't shut down the schools every year during the flu season i mean yeah they don't in general there are some if you have bad outbreaks so they'll say hey we're going to give it two weeks whatever the incubation you know period for maybe a week or something like that so so but that's very isolated, very rare. All the numbers that we have now are that kids are going to be okay. What that's going to look like for the teachers, I don't know, you know, but I think in general to be okay. But I think my, you know, I have an angst against the parents that go to even locally where they went to the school district and said,

kids can't transmit the disease. And they'll say it like it's gospel and they're the experts. And I'm like, they just told 5,000 people like they were a doctor that it can't be transmitted. So that's what, you know, I don't like. And so, yeah, but just to answer your question, I think with kids, they're going to be okay. Although we, we've never had them in school at this, there's been little pockets to where they've been okay. But boy, you know, so I don't think I would be 100 percent shocked if there were big outbreaks with kids. You know, a lot of kids got it because I don't know if every school is going mask or distancing like we are up here. But it'll be interesting to see, you know, what that that looks like because we've never had the numbers of kids being together like we have we've had pockets at camp you know 100 kids going 30 of them got it

we have at camps nobody got it we've had daycares nobody's got it you know so it's all over so yeah i did hear somebody say that like there's some studies show that kids um they don't even transmit it at a high percentage to adults. That doesn't make sense to me. Like, why wouldn't if they have it, they have it. And they, is that, is that something that people say? Or is there any studies that back that up? So there might, there, there's a few studies that say as much, but then someone takes it on Facebook and says kids can't transmit it, which is just garbage. There was a study actually from a church where one person, a 57 year old guy got it and a hundred people in the church got infected.

And so they kind of had a circle. He was in the middle and then there was about 30 people that he directly infected. And then those people infected other people. And there was probably about six or seven from 12 to 18 that were primary. and then they transmitted it to their family so yeah so that is uh um as much as possible but we're gonna see i mean it's not sound it's not settled science of what what happens with kids what we do know is that the kids if they get it their symptoms are you know in general by large much more yeah minor symptoms even asymptomatic if you see all the athletes not all the athletes but that generation 20 to you know teen higher teens to 30s they get it they're asymptomatic if they're truly asymptomatic i don't know you know

i think if someone would just have like sniffles or a headache that really is a symptom but i think if i had the sniffles i would say oh i'm asymptomatic or if i just had a headache the sniffles just make it sound i have this i know so well john thanks so much yeah well i don't want to take much more of your time. I'm sure you've got bigger problems to solve in the world. But thanks so much. Let me just say one funny story. I always get people when I hear them on Facebook or they'll tell me something about masks or vaccine. I'm like, hey, that's really good.

I had some people, family members that say, I believe about 90% of what you say, John. And I'll say, oh, well, give that to me because I'm training people every day all over the United States. So give me that information so I can update what I'm training people. So I'll leave it at that. Oh, man. It's so refreshing to know that I have somebody I can talk to to get some actual informed uh perspectives on things so and i love how you're about like i that you're if you were hyper partisan i would be nervous because i do think it's been so politicized that as you said there is a confirmation bias and we all have

confirmation bias but i think the more um the more allegiance you have to a particular political party given how politicized this has become, is going to put lenses on. I love that. I don't feel like you're driven by that at all. Yeah, I appreciate it. Yeah, let's do it again in a couple months. Every couple months, we'll check in. All right.

Take care, John. Thank you.