This Podcast Will Kill You - Ep 6 Plague Part 2: TGFA
Episode Date: December 5, 2017We're back with another episode all about plague-TGFA: Thank Goodness For Antibiotics! Today we'll focus on the status of plague in the modern world: where it is, where it isn't, and what we can do ab...out it. And as always, we'll let you know whether or not to put on your scaredy pants. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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June 20th.
With the help of Father Vagano, I try to persuade some of the time.
English sailors, whose duty it is to bury the dead from the city and other hospitals,
to let me take the buboes from the dead before they are buried. A few dollars conveniently distributed
and the promise of a good tip, for every case, have a striking effect. The bodies before they
are carried to the cemetery are deposed for one or two hours in a cellar. They are already in their
coffins in a bed of lime. The coffin is opened. I move the lime to clear the thigh region. The
Bubo is exposed. Within less than a minute, I cut it away and run to my laboratory. I see a real
mass of bacilli, all identical. From the bubo, I inoculate agor tubes, mice, and guinea pigs.
My bacillus is most probably that of plague, but I am not certain. June 21st. I go on cutting
and examining bubos. I always find the same bacillus, extremely abundant. My animals inoculated
yesterday are dead and show the typical plague bubos. I love that. I was really nervous. I was really
It was so perfectly, like I can imagine the exact scientist who was like,
Burr-Ber-Bu-B-B-B-B-B-B-you-you- Well, the exact scientist was Alexander Yerson in the year 1894,
which is when he discovered, yep, that's right, Yersinia Pestis, the causative agent of plague.
Yersen.
Yerson.
I never knew where it got its name.
Now I know.
A Swiss scientist.
And also, even though he probably was the first.
to actually describe and identify the bacterium, he did not get credit for a while because he did not
publish in English, which is very interesting. Oh, interesting. So what in Switzerland, what,
what language did he publish in German or French? Probably German. Cool. Interesting.
Yeah. How fun. Hi and welcome to episode six. Yes. Of this podcast will kill you.
My name is Aaron Welsh. And I'm Aaron Alman Updike. And this is Plague part two. Yeah.
Before we start off, we want to tell you guys about a few other podcasts that are awesome and you
guys should totally check out. Yeah, as if, you know, you have all the time in the world to listen to all
the podcasts. Let's tell you about some of our favorites. Yeah. Yeah. So our friend Matt Candace,
who's also a student with us, produces a podcast called In Defensive Plants and it's an awesome,
awesome botany podcast. It's like top rated on iTunes. He interviews really awesome people and
it's just a really great podcast in general, you know, dot, dot, dot, look out for a crossover episode
in the future. We also made a Twitter friend, which to me is the most exciting thing in the world.
I don't know if that's nerdy, but when we got our first Twitter friend, I was like, I wanted to die of
excitement. Yeah. As someone who doesn't really do Twitter at all, I was in the dark about this,
but Erin was really excited. I was, I almost like I squealed so hard. But anyways, we made friends because
I found this podcast called The FEMS of STEM, which is this amazing podcast all about the history
of women in science, technology, engineering, and math, which is STEM. And each episode focuses
on a different woman and all of her amazing accomplishments in the field. It's super interesting.
It's hosted by a badass lady named Michelle. It's great. You should definitely check it out.
There's also another super cool podcast we want to tell you about. And it's created and produced by
our friend Shane Campbell-Staten.
and his
and his friend Aryan Darby.
It's called The Biology of Superheroes,
and in it they talk about some of your favorite comic book heroes
and the biological principles underlying their superpowers.
It's going to be amazing.
The first episode is being released on December 1st.
So it'll already be out by the time this episode is out.
Oh, cool.
Great.
I was going to say, the first episode just dropped.
And it's all about Peter Parker and his spidey physiology.
Oh, my God.
I can't wait to listen.
It's going to be really good.
I'm thrilled about it.
It's going to be super high quality.
Yeah.
Mage.
Mage.
What are we chatting about today, Aaron?
Well, this week, just like last week, we're doing something a little bit unusual.
So the topic of plague is so huge that we needed to split it up into two weeks.
So this is part two.
So if you missed part one, pause here.
Go and download episode five and then meet us back here in like an hour.
Yeah, that episode five will give you the biological background and historical context that you may need for this next episode.
Yeah.
So this episode, we're going to be talking all about the plague in modern times and ending with the discussion of the recent outbreak in Madagascar and what that means for the rest of the world.
Cool.
I guess we should start, though, with our quarantinis.
It's quarantini time.
What do we have on the menu for this episode, Aaron?
Another boobo babya.
Oh, okay.
Is this one the pneumonic variety?
Yes, absolutely.
Okay, okay.
Yeah.
So this one's made with vodka.
Okay, so it's just another, it's an extra dry martini with vodka and...
And this time we used an olive just to mix it up.
There we go.
Maybe olives are more mnemonic.
I don't know.
Well, how about we start with an overview of the bioly
just as a refresher. That's a great idea. So just to review, plague is a disease that is caused by a
bacteria known, as we mentioned, as Yersinia pestis. It is spread in several different ways,
and the root of transmission determines the type of disease that you get. So the most famous form is
bubonic plague, and that disease is acquired when it is transmitted by the bite of an infected flea.
Pneumonic Plague, on the other hand, is when a bubonic plague spreads to infect your lungs and then can be
transmitted via respiratory droplets, aka coughing. And then the third type of plague is known as
septicemic plague, and that means that the bacterium has infected your bloodstream and proliferated
in your blood. And there are different mortality rates associated with each of these forms, right?
Absolutely. So bubonic plague is the least fatal of the three. It has mortality rates of
30 to 60% if untreated, and then pneumonic plague is the most virulent, and it has up to 100%
mortality rate if left untreated. The good news is all three of these types of disease are
treatable with antibiotics, as long as you get to them fast enough. Super. Super dupes. Okay. I think
that's a good, I think that's a good little... Biology in a nutshell. Now let's pick up where we left
off last week, which is more or less at the beginning of what historians called the third pandemic.
So we talked about last week the first pandemic, which was the plague of Justinian, the second
pandemic, which was the black death and then the local epidemics that followed that in the
centuries after. The third pandemic began in 1855 in China and spread to India and some other
places as well. Over the course of that one year, more than 12 million people died. And
in those two countries alone.
Wow.
Yeah.
12 million?
12 million.
Although the death toll of the third pandemic could not hold a candle to that of the
Black Death.
Right.
Nothing can.
No.
The Black Death.
It's the mother of all plagues.
Yeah, definitely.
One of the significant outcomes of it was that by the early 1900s,
plague was endemic in wild rodent populations all around the world.
Wow.
And by this time, both the Black Rat and its flee had a global distribution.
This was thanks to the widespread rapid global travel that was now possible.
Infected rats brought infected fleas onto boats, which would enter every port town.
At the edges of these port towns, you would find human dwellings encroaching onto natural areas,
which allowed for the intermingling of domestic and wild rodents.
And the rat fleas had no preference.
They were just happy to have so many available hosts.
If humans and wild rodents came into close contact, as they did following,
deforestation or whenever human settlements were built in previously natural areas, plague could
make the jump from rodent to human host via the bite of an infected flea.
And this is what the third pandemic saw.
Pockets of plague, some larger than others, popping up in parts of every continent except for Antarctica
and also most of Western Europe, actually, which is funny considering the Black Death
was most impacted a lot of Western Europe.
It was during this pandemic in the late 19th century that substantial medical research was finally done on the plague.
Its root of transmission via infected fleas was identified.
The importance of rat populations was realized.
The causative agent, little basilie, ursinia pestis, was described.
Even with all these pretty monumental advances in the medical underpinnings of plague, there was still a long way to go.
The earliest vaccines and antibiotics used to prevent or treat plague infection,
were developed in the late 1800s, but these weren't all that great.
If you received either, your chances of dying were reduced by about 20 or 30%.
Wow.
That's it.
That's it?
Yeah.
Gosh.
Promising, but not really that reassuring.
No.
Improvements continued to be made, and now there is a functional plague vaccine,
but it still has its problems, mostly with longevity and the protection it offers and on the logistical side.
It takes multiple courses to immunize.
antibiotics on the other hand are still effective against plague for now
for now for now but thank goodness for now but thank goodness for now in the 1940s is when
streptomycin which is usually used to treat plague now is was discovered even with all
of these ways to combat plague it persisted but actually that verb tense is wrong it continues to
persist in many regions of the world including madagascar plague is considered to be an endemic
disease. And what is an endemic disease, Aaron? An endemic disease is a disease that is sort of constantly
occurring at low levels in a population. Thank you. You're welcome. Although the pandemic was declared to be
over in 1959, so the third pandemic was, according to the WHO, done, in 1939. That's it, no more.
That was by no means the last year that plague caused an epidemic. Oh, definitely not. Let's take a little
detour to Vietnam in the 1960s.
In the midst of the Vietnam War,
when the U.S. military was over there,
fighting in a pointless war,
they never should have started,
and devastating entire communities.
Getting political.
Not really.
Sorry.
I mean, really, though?
Well, getting factual.
Side note,
did you know that in Vietnam
this war is referred to as the American War,
or the resistance war against America?
I did hear that, yes.
I did know that.
Anyway, one of the tactics employed by the U.S. military during this time was using chemical warfare
to destroy crops and sterilize the land.
They did this to try to weaken the North Vietnamese Army by depriving them of food.
The problem with that, besides being morally bankrupt and evil, is that the army would just commandeer food from civilians.
So it mostly had the effect of starving entire communities and villages to death, which honestly
was probably the intention of the U.S. military all along to weaken the army by terrorism.
Yeah, sounds like the point.
The U.S. Department of Defense estimates that about 12% of the farmable land and forest was sterilized during this bombing campaign.
Oh, my God.
Although the Vietnamese government puts the amount closer to 45%.
Jesus.
What this destruction did was to drive the wild rodents out of these deforested, destroyed areas into human settlements, where there was at least still some food.
as you might expect this resulted in a massive outbreak of bubonic plague oh my god that is not something you learn about in like seventh grade history class it's not holy crap between 1965 and 1970 over 25,000 plague cases were reported in south vietnam that's just the reported ones not actual wow the actual total was probably closer to 100,000 to a quarter of a million
Not joking, not exaggerating. That's what I found.
Holy crap.
In a country where prior to U.S. invasion, there were only about 15 cases a year reported.
Oh, my God.
Most of the cases occurred in small isolated villages where I couldn't find exact figures, but I'm sure the death rate was really high.
Yeah, because if you don't have access to medicine, then even if you're getting bubonic play,
that's still a 60% mortality rate.
Yeah.
That's ridiculous.
Some American soldiers also came down with the plague, but they were able to get treatment right
away.
Surprise, surprise.
And most of them were vaccinated anyway.
This is just one of the many nasty, shameful chapters of American history.
That is a whole other podcast.
There are multiple many other podcasts about that.
Yeah.
Okay.
Back to plague.
Back to plague.
A lot of you, particularly those listening in the U.S., may think of plague as a thing of the
past, a medieval disease.
that has been gone for centuries.
Although you'd maybe have to be living under a rock, if you still think that, with this latest
outbreak in Madagascar.
But even with this plague outbreak, you may think that you don't have to worry about plague
living in the U.S.
Wrong.
Well, you're probably mostly right to think about that.
Wrong.
We'll get into the details of that more later.
But in terms of natural infections, yeah.
Yeah.
That's true.
Did you know, though, that there have been over 1,000 cases of plague in the U.S.
the early 1900s. A thousand, that's it. But still, still, still, that's a thousand people.
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In the early 1900s, plague tended to pop up in port towns when plague-infected wrath disembarked
from ships and their fleas headed into town for a little barfing fun.
Outbreaks were reported in San Francisco, Oakland, Hawaii, some Oregon coastal towns,
and several of these outbreaks were dominated by the pneumonic, more deadly form of the disease.
The fleas then headed east overland, transmitting plague into the wild rodent populations of the
southwest and west.
After about the 1920s, plague ceased to be a port city disease in the U.S. and instead became
one of incidental contact with dead or infected animals.
Every year from the 1920s until now, cases of plague were reported.
One boy from New Mexico died after skinning a dead coyote he came across.
Same for another, but this time it was a squirrel instead of a coyote, another with a rabbit.
Because like we mentioned before, the dead bodies remain infectious, right?
Because they're basically just full of bacteria.
So especially some rodent species, but especially carnivores, are very hard hit by plague.
And so they have very high bacterial loads.
So basically we're saying don't play with roadkill, guys.
I know, which is kind of a shame because roadkill can be really a useful study thing.
Sure, yeah, but just wear gloves.
Wear gloves when you play with roadkill.
Yeah.
Several people also got sick when their pets contracted plague from infected wild rodents,
like the cats that we mentioned last episode.
I'm so sad. Sorry for you cat people out there. Just like trying to love on your cat and they're sick and they're like coughing and you're like, oh, poor baby. And then they cough in your face and then you both die of plague.
Yeah. Since 1965, there have been over 460 cases of plague in the U.S. with 16% of those infected dying.
Geez, that's a really high mortality rate. Yeah, with the like use of antibiotics and everything. Yeah.
I wonder if that is largely to do with people not being able to recognize it or doctors not wanting to diagnose something like plague.
Right. So that kind of begs the question, why is plague still killing people when there's a vaccine, when there's antibiotics?
And probably that depends on where you are geographically. Definitely. Big time.
But overall, plague is still a very nasty disease. Yeah. And antibiotics, even if administered early, can't always save you or even safe.
you from the nasty side effects that you will get from from plague infection plus even if you can you know
even if you live in a place like the united states where if you have health insurance at least then you
in theory have access to a physician to get antibiotics and even if you have a physician that
diagnoses it early we don't always go to the doctor when we're feeling sick until and with something
like plague that can come on so rapidly you might not get those antibiotics until too late
even if you had access to them.
Yeah.
So.
And so in some areas, it could be that it's underdiagnosed.
Definitely.
We're not diagnosed early enough.
But in other areas where plague is endemic, such as Madagascar, getting antibiotics to people
who need them is often a huge logistical struggle.
Yeah.
And there is a lot of underreporting of the disease, which can prolong an epidemic.
Mm-hmm.
The story of the plague in Madagascar starts in 1898, when the disease first appeared after
a ship from India full of rice, rats, and plague arrived at the island. Since then, there have been
plague deaths every year, some years worse than others. The plague, usually in bubonic form, tends to
pop up every year in Madagascar between September and April, but this year it was a little
early. Erin, can you tell me a little bit about the plague situation in Madagascar today?
I would love to. So we're going to walk through this entire outbreak, and then we're going to talk about
what honestly a great job WHO has done in trying to contain this pretty much.
So I cannot wait to hear it.
I'm excited.
So the current plague outbreak in Madagascar begins on August 23rd.
2017.
2017.
Yeah.
August 23rd of this dang year.
When a 31-year-old male reported malaria-like symptoms, he started to come down with malaria-like symptoms.
So headache, fever, malaise.
On the 27th of August, so four days later, he began experiencing respiratory symptoms while in a shared taxi.
Uh-oh.
He later died.
Uh-oh.
His body was prepared for his funeral at a hospital without any safety procedures.
31 people who came into contact with this individual case either directly or indirectly through,
like shared taxi contacts or contacts with the funeral people became ill and four of them died.
How many people became ill?
31 people from that one person initially.
And he died how soon after showing symptoms?
Within a few days.
Okay. That's okay.
The outbreak was officially detected on September 11th after a 47-year-old female was admitted to the hospital with respiratory failure because of pneumonic.
plague. So that was when they first realized that this was an outbreak. By the 28th of September,
so this is just one month after that initial man, there had already been 51 cases of pneumonic plague.
The bad one. The bad one. And 12 deaths reported. There had been an additional 53 cases of the
bubonic plague and seven deaths elsewhere in the country. Interesting. I have questions about the
origin. Yeah, I do too. And so there wasn't at least what I found a ton of detail on like the specifics of
how many index cases there might have been. They had the details of this specific story. And so this guy who was the
index case, right, had pneumonic plague. Yes. And so those people that were- Or he had bubonic plague that
became pneumonic for sure. Okay. And so those people that got bubonic plague, that indicates that there was a
Bubonic plague outbreak that was not related to him necessarily.
Necessarily, exactly.
Yeah.
Because bubonic plague is not transmitted person to person.
That's transmitted by the bites of the fleas.
Gotcha.
By October 2nd, just a few days later, that number, 51 cases of pneumonic had jumped to
73.
By November 2nd, and part of the massive increase in this numbers has to do with better
reporting, but by November 2nd, that number had jumped to 1,801 cases.
of mnemonic play.
Whoa.
It's a lot of dang cases.
By the 15th of November, which is the most recent data that I found, the total count stands
at 2,119, over 2,100 total cases.
That is considering both what they call confirmed, so laboratory confirmed cases,
probable cases, and suspected cases.
and 171 deaths, which is an 8% case fatality rate.
Wow.
Yeah.
But what's interesting is that's quite low because the vast majority of these cases were clinically
classified as pneumonic plague and not bubonic plague.
So for pneumonic plague, that's actually a fairly unusually low fatality rate.
Which indicates potentially that there was a rapid response.
It could indicate that.
It could indicate that for some reason this was just like an unusually not very
strain, but WHO has done an amazing job at responding to this outbreak.
So let's talk about what happens in the case of an outbreak because I think it's thrilling.
It's what I wanted to do for my job for a long time.
Wanted?
Wanted. Wanted. Wanted to CDC hire me. Just kidding. Looking for postdocs.
Kind of. Yeah, not kidding. But so what happens when you have a suspected outbreak,
is a whole mass of people from the WHO, from the CDC, from Doctors Without Borders, Medicine
Sons Frontierre, right? They're all sent to the place with the main goal of finding the index
case, the initial person or persons who could have sort of started this outbreak. And in order to
do that, you have to do what we've referred to before as boots on the ground epidemiology.
You have to go there and interview people who were either friends of the patient, family of the patient, health care workers, everyone who ever came into contact with that patient, and then trace their contacts back and back and back.
And additionally, you have to do surveillance of all of those contacts to see who might develop symptoms in the future.
And so that means going back and checking with them every day to say, are you sick?
Exactly.
What is your temperature like?
Are you showing any symptoms?
Yes.
It's a lot of man hours.
Exactly.
Human hours.
Let's call it.
It's a lot of human hours.
It really is.
Of work.
And so in the case of this plague outbreak, there have been over 2,000 cases,
but there have been over 7,000 contacts of each of these cases identified.
And of those, 95% of them have completed.
seven-day follow-ups. So that means they've been contacted every day for seven days to, because like
we said, the incubation period tends to be between one to seven days, so you have to follow them up
for a whole week. You can imagine if this were a disease with a longer incubation period,
it's just that much more work to follow up on these people. Yeah, that is a lot of effort to put into
that. And they also were all given prophylactic antibiotics. So one thing about the plague that's
nice is that prophylactic antibiotics can help in reducing the chances that you end up showing
symptoms of plague.
Out of those 7,000 contacts, only nine of them actually ended up becoming suspected cases,
which I think is interesting.
So imagine that you have plague in just you, listener, you, Aaron.
Yeah.
And how many people do you come in contact with?
If you have pneumonic plague, over the course of 24 hours of a normal, let's say,
work day. How many people, because we, you know, just sometimes tend to hang in the house on Sundays,
I think. Yeah. I actually went to a birthday party today with children. Yeah. Oops. Sorry. Yikes. Yeah.
I mean, you'd have to follow up with each of those people that I interacted with at that birthday
party. There was probably, I don't know, 15 people there. And then go to each of their families and everyone
they contacted. I mean, it's insane, especially. It radiates outward endlessly. In 2017, when we are so
mobile, right? Like this man, this index case, he shared a taxi with multiple people. So you need to
find, how do you even find, if you're in an Uber today, can you even find if you do Uber sharing
and you are with a random person? Like, how do you even find those people? It takes a ton of real
detective work to find all of these people and make sure that you're following up in order to
sort of put a ring around the outbreak and try and contain it. And most of the reports that I have
seen say pretty specifically, well, most of the news articles about the Madagascar outbreak
specified that it has been limited to Madagascar. However, on October 10th, a man was reported
to probably have
pneumonic plague in
Seychelles? I saw
that news article and then that was the last
I saw of it. So is it possible
that he was a traveler who came from
Madagascar? Right. So he did come from
Madagascar. However,
yeah, so he did, he had visited Madagascar
and he returned to Seychelles on
the 6th of October.
They, from that one person,
they monitored 320
contacts of this person.
Eight of them ended up developing mild symptoms.
But of those 320 contacts, 41 of them were passengers on his flight from Madagascar back.
You imagine being on a flight and getting contacted by United Airlines.
Knock knock, hello.
You were on this flight.
You may have pneumonic plague.
It's just insane.
Thank goodness they're antibiotics.
That should be the name of this episode.
I'll quote something a little bit better.
Um, what else about that plague?
Well, as of, so we're recording this on November 19th, 2017.
And as of today, it has been three weeks and one day since a case has been confirmed.
Right. The last confirmed case of bubonic plague happened on the 24th of October and the last
confirmed case of pneumonic plague was the 28th of October. However, like we've said before,
plague is endemic to Madagascar and plague season extends until April. So the surveillance efforts
are not finished and the risk is not entirely done. However, it seems like the worst of this
outbreak is hopefully over. Hopefully. Yeah. Hopefully. It's crazy though. I mean, it was a massive
outbreak because it's over 2,000 cases from 2010 to 2015. There was only just over 3,000.5. There was only just over
3,000 cases of plague reported worldwide. Wow. And 584 deaths. So this is a big one. Yeah. It's massive. Yeah.
It's definitely one of the biggest. There was plague is certainly not limited, limited to Madagascar.
Madagascar does tend to be one of the countries that has the greatest burden of it year after year.
But just in the 2000s alone, there have been outbreaks in Zambia, India, Malawi, Algeria, the Democratic
Republic of Congo, China, Peru, and Madagascar. And those are just the outbreaks. That's not counting
sort of individual cases like we see in the U.S. almost every year. Right, right. Yeah. So
plague is definitely not over. Should we talk about how scared we need to be today? Oh my God.
If you listen to last week's episode, you might remember that the use of plague and
bioterrorism is nothing new. Right. In fact, it's many centuries old. When the
The Mongol army threw bodies of plague victims over the city wall of Kaffa.
They were hoping to bring down the city with this awful disease.
While their efforts may have been ineffectual, there have been more successful attempts in the last 100 years.
There's a true story from the early 20th century of two half-brothers in India who were joint heirs to an estate.
Yeah. Do you know where this is going?
No, but I'm excited about it.
One day, one brother met the other brother unexpectedly at a train station.
and gave him a hug goodbye.
During this encounter, the other brother, the one who was hugged, felt a pinprick on his arm.
Eight days later, he was dead.
No way.
Turns out, I'm not making this up.
Is this, like, verified?
This is from this book, Plague and Ancient Disease in the 20th century.
So take it up with Charles Gregg.
Charles.
You better be right about this, Charles.
Is this like Wikipedia status?
No, this is like a, he's a researcher or was a researcher at Los Alamos.
All right, all right.
So, Mr. Gray.
I think he knows what he was talking about.
Tell me about it.
Anyway, so the guy who felt the pinprick on his arm.
Yeah.
Died eight days later.
Turns out, his brother had recently taken out a huge life insurance policy on him.
Oh, my God.
And then teamed up with a microbiologist.
I'm not making this up to get some plague bacilli.
While he was hugging his brother, the microbiologist injected some of the plague bascili
into the guy to kill him.
him. Oh my God. They were both found guilty of murder. Most microbiologists are not like this.
And I would have got away with it if it weren't for you, pesky microbiologists. Oh my God. I can't
believe that. Is that crazy? That's like, I've got an idea. I've got an idea of an elaborate way to kill my brother.
I know.
How did they really figure out that it was not just a naturally infected case of plague?
Like, did he say?
They broke under questioning.
Did they?
I don't know.
I mean, if I've seen one CSI case, I've seen them all.
Yeah.
Slash house slash, I don't know.
House is a great crossover episode between the two.
Yeah.
Yeah.
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There's another story of plague as a bioterrorism agent in World War II.
This is a fun one.
Well, it's not actually.
This is a shocking one, I would say.
I would also say it's a really interesting one, and I want to talk about why.
So go.
Apparently, the Japanese army had been experimenting on Chinese prisoners by making plague bombs,
intending to weaponize plague, particularly pneumonic plague, and cause epidemics.
of it. Apparently, around 3,000 prisoners died, and the Japanese army escaped prosecution by the
Allied forces by turning over their research findings to the U.S. Wow. That's interesting. So I had read a
slightly different story. Mm-hmm. There are some more, yeah. Yeah. What is the more? Well,
there are also some reports from China that the American Air Force deployed some biological warfare
agents in North Korea during the Korean War in the early 1950s.
Huh. So I had read that a, quote, secret branch of Japanese Army Unit 731 is reported to have
actually dropped infected fleas all over populated areas of China. Yes. Which what I think is
really interesting about that is that not that we're trying to tell you how to do bioterrorism,
but that's not a good way to do it. Well, clearly they were experimenting. Yeah. I mean, I guess. But
it's just really interesting. Trial error. Trial and error. Yeah. But bubonic plague is not as
infectious and it's not as virulent. And so it's an interesting. So it's very possible that that
endeavor dropping infected fleas on different towns was what led to their attempt to create
pneumonic plague bombs. Right. Yeah. So that is, there are a list of a few diseases that the WHO and several
other organizations have sort of a task force to look out for. And plague is one of the ones that is
considered the most terrifying, the most likely. It should be noted also that Russia has been
working on weaponizing plague for decades now. Interesting. Like confirmed. Well, it's confirmed
as smallpox. All right. So highly suggested in some of the dossiers that dossiers. Yeah. What's interesting
about plague, in contrast to something like smallpox, which we've talked about the bioterrorism
potential of that, is that Yersinia pestis is widely available. Whereas smallpox is only, whether it's
in many different governments' hands or only a few government's hands, it still is in the hands of
governments worldwide. Whereas Yersinia pestis is everywhere. You can go to Colorado, you can go to
California, you can get plague bacteria quite easily from a flea, from a rat, and you can go. And
from whatever.
Yes.
And because it has the capacity to be mass produced and to be aerosolized and be transmitted
in that way, it is a really terrifying prospect in terms of a bioterrorism agent.
In some ways, yes.
But also, okay, so let's just say that someone manages to weaponize plague and makes it
the mnemonic form and then makes it antibiotic resistant.
Right.
Scary.
That's probably the scariest scenario.
area that we have. Definitely. And then releases it into a city. Yes.
Pneumonic Plague kills you so rapidly that the period of infectivity is relatively low compared to
other diseases. And so while it is a very scary prospect, it's not, let's say it's not
the best or most effective bioterrorism agent and that an outbreak could likely be contained
pretty rapidly the way that it has been in Madagascar. So what it sounds like you're talking about is
the R not of plague. So R not, dear listeners, and this looks like a capital R with a subscript
zero. Right. And we call that R not. So R not is the basic reproductive rate of a pathogen.
What that means is the number of secondary cases that happen from a single primary case if everyone
in your population is susceptible. Yeah? And so in the case of pneumonic plague, you're right. You're
the R not is estimated to be only about 1.3, which means on average, only 1.3 people, it's an average,
is actually infected from every person who has pneumonic plague. That's in contrast to something
like smallpox, which has an R not of guess what, around six and a half. Whoa. Yeah. Yeah.
Interesting. Yeah. So that's something that, because as I was reading this, I was like, why am I not more
scared of plague. Do I need to be? What's the R-Nod? And it was actually more difficult than I expected
to find that number. But yeah, it's quite low compared to other potential bioterrorism agents that are
maybe more scary or even other infections like measles, which has an R-Nod of 13. Wow. It's one of the
highest. Oh, we have to do an episode on that. Oh, we definitely will. Okay. But also just get vaccinated
and then we don't have to worry about it. It's a little harder, I think, in some areas than others. Yeah.
Yeah. Like Orange County.
God.
Unfortunately.
Mom.
I'm kidding.
She vaccinated us.
Overall, it seems like plague is still a scary organism and it's still clearly causing a lot of disease and deaths.
Definitely.
In certain areas of the world.
But in terms of a bioterrorism agent, it's not the best one or not the one we need to worry the most about.
Right.
It's on the list, I think, that people who are in charge of worrying about those things are worrying about it.
So, like, on the day-to-day, don't let it keep you up at night.
And let's just say also that this bubonic plague, pneumonic plague, is a disease that is once again mostly concentrated in countries that are economically poor or economically struggling.
And with improved sanitation, with improved surveillance of disease, and so on.
that these diseases could be brought to very, very low levels.
Yeah.
Especially with plague, it's all about surveillance and monitoring because if you are able to catch individual cases, you can prevent the spread.
So while, and you also can prevent initial infection if you don't have houses that are infested with fleas.
So with improving infrastructure, you can help prevent things like that.
Okay.
So Plague, that was a big one.
It was.
Two whole episodes.
Part two.
Slightly shorter, but not any less sweet.
I guess.
We want to, oh, do you have any reading materials to site or do you or do that?
I actually don't.
I got all of my information from WHO.
Thanks so much for what you do.
Yeah.
Once again, I'll just do a shout out for plague and ancient disease in the 20th
Century by
Greg.
Charles Gregg.
Got you.
Got you, girl.
We want to also thank Bloodmobile
for the music, yet again,
doing a stellar job.
Kicking it.
And please remember to rate, review, and subscribe.
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If you have any suggestions or questions,
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or corrections, any of those things,
we are happy to hear from you.
We would love to hear.
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from you. Thanks for listening.
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