This Week in Startups - 2023 Predictions! Startups, VC, tech, media, stocks, shutdowns, and more! | E1648

Episode Date: January 2, 2023

Jason and Molly rip through 20+ predictions for 2023, including over/under bets, shutdowns, stocks, main characters, startups, new tech, and SO much more! (0:00) J+M tee up today's show: 2023 Predictions! (1:53) Main character of 2023 (4:35) Most anticipated trend (7:13) Surprising shutdown (9:40) Biggest bag securer (13:36) Notion - Sign up for FREE at https://notion.com/jason (15:06) App/tech breakout (17:30) Most notable CEO resignation or return (21:25) Most anticipated technology (25:37) Embroker - Use code TWIST to get an extra 10% off insurance at https://Embroker.com/twist (26:45) Most anticipated media (29:09) Over/under: 30.5 year sentence for SBF (30:07) Over/under: 10.5 year sentence for Caroline Ellison (30:34) Over/under: $750M box office for Oppenheimer (31:06) Over/under: 21 months left of recession (31:46) Hottest take for 2023 (35:53) Fitbod - Get 25% off at https://fitbod.me/twist  (37:26) Will any VCs be charged in a crypto-related crime? (38:16) Will total capital raised by VCs fall off a cliff? (43:11) What startup will make the biggest impact? (45:59) Overrated hot new vertical (48:43) Will the fundraising landscape get better for startups? (50:19) Over/under: 3 new impactful social apps (51:18) Most stock appreciation: $AAPL, $AMZN, $GOOG, $META, $MSFT (52:59) Most stock appreciation: $ABNB, $SPOT, $UBER (55:21) Over/under: 177 IPOs (56:07) When will VR replace the iPhone? FOLLOW Jason: https://linktr.ee/calacanis FOLLOW Molly: https://twitter.com/mollywood Subscribe to our YouTube to watch all full episodes: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCkkhmBWfS7pILYIk0izkc3A?sub_confirmation=1

Hey, everybody. We're back. It's January 2nd. And this is our prediction show for the year. We have so many predictions to get through. I don't want to belabor it here because it's such a great show. So should we just kick this off? We got easy takes. We got easy takes. We got tech takes. Let's just get right into it. Here's what we think is going to happen this year. It's going to be a great show. Stick with us. This week in startups is brought to you by, Notion is one place for notes, docs, projects, and everyday work that goes way beyond a wiki. Get started for free at notion.com slash Jason.

Embroker's startup insurance program helps startup secure the most important types of insurance at a lower cost and with less hassle. Save up to 20% off of traditional insurance today at embroker.com slash twist. While you're there, get an extra 10% off using offer code twist. And FitBod. Tired of doing the same workouts at the gym? FitBod will build you personalized workouts that help you progress with every set. Get 25% off your subscription or try out the app for free when you sign up now at fitbod.me slash twist. All right, everybody, it's our 2023 predictions episode. This is where Molly and I will make some predictions about what's going to happen this year.

Thank you, everybody. Happy near everybody. It's January 2nd. I got my Martinelli's. I'm ready to rock. All right. Yeah. Here we go.

Do some predictions. Okay. Let's just get right to it. We don't need to do a big preamble here. Let's go. What's our first category for predictions? All right. So we are taking some of the categories from the Twisties, if you listen to that episode, and

bringing them over. So, for example, we gave an award to the main character of 2022. And now we want to look at who do we think is going to be a or even the main character of 2023, the person who dominates the conversation in the tech world, the tech, startups, crypto, whatever that world might be. We have some candidates pre-filled, but then we can chat about it. Ideas include Carolyn Ellison, the poison ivy of the SBF and FTX story, because she's going to probably testify.

Again, Sam Bankman-Feed. We, of course, have Sam Bankman-Feed himself, I think you could argue as likely to be a big character. Bob Iger coming back to Disney is one. Elon at Twitter is one.

That easily comes to mind. Do we think Adam Newman will be back in the news? I'm not so sure his vision of the world is going to be

like, you know, the flow, what flow apartments? It seems like, okay, if he succeeds, great. A bunch of young people are living in cool apartments.

Congratulations. I mean, someone might argue open AI and Microsoft could be the main character. We definitely make that argument.

I have a little bit of a wildcard here. Ooh. It's adjacent to SBF. I think Gary Gensler, the head of the SEC, is going to drop a lot of crypto legislation on this. And then I think the other main character, I mean, I hate to get political here, but, you know, then there's also, you know, Jerome Powell and what happens with interest rates, right? Yeah. So those are two main characters that I'm watching. but I'm going to go with Gary Gensler.

I like that. I like that. Yeah, that's the one I'm watching. So that's really interesting because I was going to say that I think a main character to consider is a Republican House of Representatives, which is coming in somewhat hostile to Big Tech for various reasons, right? It's like you have both parties hostile for different reasons. But you've got this kind of new cast of characters coming in with whoever the House speaker turns out being you've got the potential for hearings. then, you know, committees.

You could go Lena Khan, right? You could just say Lena Khan, maybe. I could go Lena Khan, exactly. You could go club-Bashar if that antitrust bill actually makes any progress. So I wouldn't count out, I wouldn't count out the, you know, the deep state, the Congress or the regulatory framework in the U.S. So who did you got? You got to make a decision here, Molly. But I do have to make a decision.

I think, I think it's Elon. I think the main character continues to be Elon in 2023. I think it's an easy choice. I went with the wild card. Elon would be the easy one for me to say, but I'm close to it, so it was easier for me to go with Gary Gensler. Exactly.

Most anticipated trend for 2020. Okay. Most anticipated trend for 2023. Yeah. You know, for me, I've been giving this a lot of thought. I think this is going to be a really rough year because of the recession. I think it's, you know, there's,

is it a soft landing or hard landing? Somewhere in between is probably the likely case. I think it's going to be three more quarters of chaos. I've always said six quarters, so is my prediction. And that was quarters two, three, and four, which means it's going to be one, two, and three of this year. So I think the trend is going to be austerity and focus.

So the age of excess giving to the age of austerity or focus. I don't know which one I would, maybe I'll just combine them. The age of austerity and focus is the trend. Who can be the most? most focused and, you know, spend the least amount of money to make the biggest impact. I think that's a trend for startups in this next year. Yeah.

I think. I know. Yeah, no, I think it's going to. I think it's going to be hard. I think there's going to, but I do agree with you. You know, Nick has been banding about this phrase, less silly, more dilly, as in more diligence. Sure.

Governance, diligence. That's a good one. And I think and hope that that is, in fact, that, you know, I think that there could be some soul searching and even some. But if I have to distill what you have said into, I think, my trend for 2023, it's accountability. And maybe this is like wishful thinking. But I think one of the ways that we have gotten so astray in general, in tech, right, in the spending and the investing that created this kind of culture of entitlement and just like bizarre valuations and all of that was that nobody was ever held accountable when they made those mistakes. Yeah.

And there were some big views. WIFs in 2022. There were some big governance whiffs, some government with some management wifts. I think that we are going to start to see people have their feet held to the fire. And I congratulate actually Sequoia for starting that trend in the wake of FTX by apologizing to LPs. Yeah, we could have done better for intelligence. Firing an investor, like getting rid of one of the people who worked on that deal, who was not involved in that government. And so I actually do think we might start to see a little bit of a return to like, when you do something wrong,

you are held accountable for. Do you take responsibility? So, your most anticipated trend of 2023 is accountability. I like it. I think we're both going with very, yeah. Okay.

Surprising shutdown of 2023. Yeah. That we might shut down. I sadly have a company, I think that could have a, um, a shutdown and a fire cell. And I think that company is Peloton. A lot of the same one. And I,

I don't want that, but I do think, you know, it's just people are in a recession, a $3,000 gym item, a $40, what is it now,

$44 or $34? They raised it a couple of bucks. Yeah. Even myself, I was thinking about getting another machine for up here, you know, at the ski house.

And I'm like, no, I'll just go to the, the local gym or whatever, I'll just ski. I'm not going to get another machine. And I, you know,

it's not a logical choice. It's an emotional choice. For me, I just don't want to add expense right now. So I'm looking at my personal balance sheet. I'm looking at the corporate balance sheets. I just don't want an expense. And that's a big ticket item. That's a big expense.

40 bucks a month, $500 a year plus two or $3,000 for one of these devices. And I think that they're running out of money. So, you know, I think BuzzFeed was the other one I think was like in serious trouble on the media side. So BuzzFeed Pelotonish feels really troubling. but I'll go with Peloton. BuzzFeed is my second surprising shutdown of 2020 or fire cell, including fire selling in that.

Yeah, totally. Corporate shutdown. Somebody buys the asset. I think I'm 100% with you on Peloton. And I wouldn't even say that's like going to be a surprising shutdown. Like I hate to say. I suspect, and I haven't exactly decided which one, but I think we might see another surprising media shutdown. Like BuzzFeed again is very much on that list.

But, you know, the way that kind of Politico or a pro, protocol just went poof. Yeah. I would not be entirely shocked if something like an axios, right? Something that you thought was like, okay. Just wait out because that media landscape is getting so hard and so frustrated. So they're part of a bigger institution, right? They are.

But that bigger institution might just be like, I mean, like, what's the value of like a Huffington post today, right? Like that's been sold twice maybe or business insider has been sold. So you could see like some of those. brands, somebody might say, you know what, maybe we'll sunset this brand, or maybe it's just like an SEO play. We'll just let it slowly die out. So, you know, there's death watch and then there's, like, hospice watch, right? Like where you just like let a company kind of slowly die. Okay, let's go to Bag Secure. Yeah, let's do it. This one for me, I have a little bit of a wild card. I think the Bag Secure is going to be TikTok shareholders, but I have to explain why. I believe that the Chinese owners of this company are going to, under threat of having it banned in the U.S., are going to sell it. And it's going to become an American company. It's too big to let it die.

And I think now we have bipartisan support. We've basically woken up to the fact that this is Chinese spyware on everybody's phones. And it's incredible, an incredible user experience. and it's incredibly addicting and our Cold War with China that's replacing the Cold War with Russia because Russia has been essentially, I don't want to say neutered,

but, you know, I think we realize they're a waning, failed state in many ways that, you know, the Cold War with China, what do you do if you own TikTok shares? You can't let them go to zero. And if they get kicked out of the U.S., it's a zero.

So I think the Chinese investors, which probably include the government probably owns some of those shares or gets some benefit from them, taxes, whatever, I think they're just going to sell it. So I think everybody who owns shares in that is just going to make a huge payday,

huge payday. TikTok shareholders. I believe it goes public at the end of the year. Fascinating. Yeah. Or get sold to somebody, merged with somebody, you know? Yeah.

That kind of thing, yeah. Right. So it doesn't disappear from the U.S. market. No. Is your, that's a big. That's a good take. A ban. too big to ban.

I agree. You know I agree. I cannot imagine. And also, I think you give away way too many votes by doing that as anybody, as any politician. Like, no politician's, I don't put their name on that, you know? Who's your bag secure? So that's funny because I was going to say that I think meta could end up being the bag secure as the recipient of the weakening of TikTok.

This like deliberate campaign to weaken TikTok. Right. So it's like almost the opposite. So even though I kind of don't think it's getting a band, I wouldn't put it past, you know, either like new rules or changes to the algorithm or forcing a sale in a way that that people don't like.

And I think that actually Instagram specifically could end up reaping the benefit of all the upheaval at Twitter, of kind of a lack of like really viable competition. Like everybody's been saying, you know, as the if you're looking for a social media alternative, how funny is it that no one ever mentions Facebook? Yeah.

But Instagram is making moves in that department. And so if TikTok gets banned, then Instagram is the bag holder, in my opinion. I'll tell you what I like also about your bag holder, your bag he's secure for Facebook. Even if you take out TikTok, the fact that the stock went from 90 or so when I bought it at 94 to 115 or something

when he made those 10,000 layoffs, the back channel is there's another rift going on quietly. And it's a performance-based rift, and it will also be 10 to 15%. And that means, I think meta will go to $200 to share again, maybe $150 to 200 to share

in the next six to 12 months. So we'll be sitting here a year from now with $150 to $200 share of meta. I think it's a great trade. Yeah, Meta can secure the bank. I may lean into it, even though I bought it at 94 and it's at $118. I may put more into it.

If that is in fact true, the back channel that we're hearing, the rumblings of this, you know, gentlemen's riff, performance-based gentleman's riff, not back to office riff. That's me. So I like your back secure, but for a different reason. And I like that. We have counter 70-30,

probably 60-40. Who knows who's right on the two-talking issue? But don't count out meta. They're going to secure the back. Hey, listen, if you want your business to be more productive, more cost-efficient, and you want to have more impact, you want to do more with less, you need to use Notion. We run our entire business at launch

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free Notion account at notion.com slash Jason. My name, Notion.com slash Jason. Make sure Jason is in all lowercase, notion.com slash JASON to get started for free right now. All right, app or tech breakout 2023. What do you got about? What app or technology is going to break out in 2023? consumers are going to embrace it in some very large way. There's a lot of obvious ideas here. What do you? Right. I mean, obviously there's AI.

Right. Like you've got, I thought that 2022 would be the year of MRNA vaccines. We actually got very, very close, I think, to an HIV vaccine in 22. I think they're like on the cusp of literally creating a vaccine for HIV and a cure, which would be incredible. incredible. But I think that medical breakthroughs end up taking a lot longer than we often think. So I'm not ready to declare that for 23. But now that we have tools like chat GPT and whatever Google's going to do. And I suspect that they will be prodded into releasing whatever they've got, either speeding up development on AI or if the rumors are true that they have a chat GPT killer that they've just been too afraid to release, I think they do it. I think they, set it out into the wild and it changes everything. Yeah, I think it's text-based AI, augmentation of humans, the notion, which we went over in a recent episode. Notion adding, you know, that level of AI is truly astounding the results. You know, it starts on second base

if you're writing a blog post or a memo, whatever it is, or you see it in your Gmail where it gives you the next two or three words. Both of those we're going to see expand into actual usage. So when we're talking about a breakout, I would love to say it's Apple's AR goggles. But those Apple goggles are going to be $2,000, $3,000, whatever the Facebook ones are. It's going to be for elite developers and, you know, people who on the technology cycle are early adopters, like really avant-garde, you know, really early adopters. And so the tip of the spirit type people, so I think, you know, we might be sitting here in 24 saying AR is being adopted. I think 23 is going to be about text-based and developer, which code is text as well. So those two.

Code and writers are going to be using not just chat GPT. That just happens to be the best execution of it. I think there's a lot of people. There'll be 10 of them. And I don't know that any one person wins the day on it. So we are in agreement on that. Most shocking, and I guess the way they phrase this is shocking. You could also say notable.

So I'll edit this on the fly to say notable slash shocking. newsworthy CEO resignation or return, right? We saw Bob Iger come back to Disney. That would have been for last year, obviously, the most notable, shocking. Is there going to be one of those, if there is one of those in 2023?

Molly, who would it be for you? I have two options. I think that despite, actually, not even despite related to what I said about meta being securing the bag in 2023, It would not surprise me if you see Mark Zuckerberg change his role dramatically. Like either spin-off Metaverse and Oculus and make it its own company and become the CEO of that or retire completely and start something new in that space or be pushed out.

Like, I don't know. But I feel like this is the year when his role could change big time. And it would be shocking without a doubt. I mean, the obvious one is BAS. I don't think that's going to happen. He's having a great time. So I don't see it. I saw a tweet the other day that was like, you know, a lot of CEOs seem to be having a

hard time with retirement, but he really has ridden off into the sunset. Living his best life. Okay, here's what I want to know. What is Cheryl Sandberg going to be the CEO of in 2023? Like, I could see her showing up as a shocking CEO choice. I would, I think more likely is to see her be part of the Caval of the next administration. I think that's maybe a more likely possibility.

Yeah. Now, I know some people feel like maybe the well's been poisoned because of, you know, Cambridge, Analytica or whatever. I think people have a short memory. They just remember that she worked at this incredible organization and that she's incredibly well-spoken. So I would see her becoming, you know, a Treasury Secretary, Secretary State. I don't know which one of those, but something in an administration I could see her doing.

I mean, here's a crazy one. I wonder if given what's happening with chat GPT to bundle these issues together, if Sundar might maybe make a move out of Google, maybe, you know, and so I do think that whatever's happening at this moment, then could have some impact on Google with chat GPT. And, you know, not making the cuts at Google, Maybe Google stock lounders. Maybe Sundar does his decade and moves on.

Who knows? He's been with Google since 2004. You're describing it as somewhat voluntary, but maybe it's not. Yeah, I mean, a lot of these things might be... Because he doesn't seem to be a particularly dynamic... He's not pushing the envelope at Google and the competition is coming. The ad market is softening. Yes.

Could be a year for change there. Yeah. That's a good one. I'm not saying he should. I'm not saying I want him to. I'm not saying he deserves it. I'm just saying change can happen voluntarily or it could just be the passing of the torch. You know, like maybe he's had his run and, you know, maybe it's, he wants to do something else, right?

I don't think that's going to happen with Tim Cook. I don't think it's happening with Satya. But Sundar and the state of Google, maybe change would be good for everybody. So that's just a wild car there. Bezos, I don't think so. The obvious one is, you know, Elon naming a CEO of Twitter, which in 2020, he said he's going to. So that would be most notable, but not surprising. Can you imagine if you name Cheryl?

I'm just saying, that's my like, I want that to happen. That would be amazing. Not possible. Yeah. It would just be so exciting. It would be, but I just don't think it would happen. Yeah. But you never know.

Who knows? Oh, no. I mean, I'm sure that wouldn't happen, but it would be pretty exciting. Okay. Most anticipated technology for 2023. This is an easy one for me. Yeah. It's an easy one for me because we had Mark from Bloomberg on so many times talking about Apple.

air goggles. Totally. And they said it was supposed to come this year, but got pushed back. You know, this is going to drop, you know,

at any point in time in 2020. And I use the Facebook ones that have the pass through. Mm-hmm. And it does change the experience, I will admit. And they're very powerful. And my motion sickness

seemed to take maybe 30 or 40 minutes to kick in and I took them off. I was playing a Star Wars game and just at some point I took them off. I'm like, this is getting nauseous. But I did last 30 minutes, which I'd never done before.

Yeah. So I feel like, This technology is getting better and better. I don't know what the application is, but AR is going to be the solution. I want AR so bad. Like, I will run, I will sprint toward AR. I just, I want to be able to have, like a screen. I mean, I just want it for my, like, like an implant in my eyeball that's like,

oh, okay, I'm walking toward my United Flight and here's the flight and here's the like the map of the terminal. I want basically a heads up display on my face all the time. And so if Apple's AR glasses come out in 2020, and they're even close to that, I will be stoked. Yeah, I mean, I would like to also have them for replacing my desktop. So, you know, you're on the road.

And you have a keyboard with you. And like, literally you just bring, you know, a keyboard. And that's in your backpack. And then your keyboard has a processor that, and it connects to your goggles. And then I'm typing on my keyboard and I got my mouse. But, you know, I am finally. doing what they did in that Tom Cruise film

Minority Report. I'm moving the monitors around and we saw that in a Facebook demo although it wasn't a live one. It was just a, I think they had like a screen grab or screen picture of a woman in front of three monitors that were virtual. You know, in other words, the headset was projecting them, but she could see the rest of the world.

That to me, the virtual desktop without the physical monitors, think about what that could do for the world. You don't have to produce monitors. anymore. Yeah. I mean, I love it. And monitors are hugely climate intensive and like, they're just like, they're pretty electronic waste. Okay, but I have a different one actually. Oh, you have a different one. I do. Okay. But for me, the most anticipated technology of 2023, this is so nerdy and right up my alley is bi-directional charging. Just plain what that is. It is vehicle to grid charging. So we're starting to see car makers, like EV makers,

announced the, and in fact, it exists already in the Ford Lightning. where you can power your house with your car. So we are seeing, like, as we're talking right now, the bomb cyclone has blanketed the United States, like millions of homes are without power. It's more and more obvious that if extreme weather is this much of a strain on the grid, we do not have the infrastructure for everyone to have an EV in their driveway. But once everybody has an EV in their driveway,

they have a little freaking power plant. And so more and more car makers are starting to roll in bi-directional charging, As in you either take power from your house or you put power back into it. And I just think this is that, you know how I am about decentralization as the future of everything. Sure. This is a huge decentralizing energy storage. Game changer. Think what that could do also.

It's a free bow in 23, but it's going to be huge. Think about Texas when they had that freeze over and their grid just went down for whatever number of days. People died. Yeah. You know, if you were in your house and you had a Tesla or a Rivian or whatever car in your driveway, or if you have two of them, you know, like you might just plug your car. into your house and at least be able to keep the pipe warm, keep your electric heater running. Yeah.

And you're just, you're good to go. It's literally all over the place. Batteries full of energy. And in fact, you know, we recently in California, we had a bunch of earthquakes. Just like a little, there was a really big one in Humboldt County and then some little shakers around the Bay Area. And I'll tell you, the first thing I did was go and make sure my car was charged because it's cold right now.

Yeah. And my car is just a big old battery that could keep me warm for a day. if I needed it to. Yeah. Listen, I've been dealing with business insurance for three decades. I kid you not. Switching providers has always been a nightmare. Too expensive, takes too much time,

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for so many years here at this week in startups. Okay, most anticipated media for 20, 23. Oh my God, what? Very interesting. Yeah. Okay, and by media, of course, we mean movies, TV shows,

new projects. We've talked a lot about what Zazloss doing. We need lawn. We need lawn for this. Should we get him to, we should get him to leave us a voice. memo. Leave us a voice memo.

Okay, so my pick, most anticipated for me is Indiana Jones 5. Obviously grew up on it. Love Temple of Doom, even though it's dark and sadistic and crazy. My 12-year-old boy, you know, 15-year-old boy seeing that film was just like, this is incredible. I don't know exactly what Eric came out in, but I loved it. I loved all the Indiana Jones series, even, you know, the crazy Crystal Skull one.

So I can't wait. I can't wait. I love that. That's a really good one of my favorite characters, having three daughters. She's a very unique character that people don't know in the Star Wars canon because she was the Padawan to Anakin Skyworker who became Darth Vader. She has two white lightsabers. She made some cameos in the Mandalorian.

And they're going to have a whole series based on her. She is a very important character because she is not a Jedi. She gets trained as a Jedi, but she left the Jedi order. And she's essentially what a samurai would consider a Ronan. She doesn't have an affiliation with the Jedi, although she comes in the Jedi, and she's not a She just is an independent, force-wielding Jedi-trained person.

And so both of those for me, what about you? I'm going to go with, I really want to see who develops the FTX story and who they cast to play Carolyn Ellison. Has not been announced yet, but I'm stoked to see it. And then, because I'm weirdly obsessed with Carolyn

Carolyn going into 2023. You think she's the mastermind. I think she's the silent killer. She's the mass. She's like, she's like, she's like Christine at Disney. Oh, yes. She knifed Cheapac all the way through. But, dude, succession.

Succession season four. Like Jerry. Season four. So it's season three, like, I don't know where they're possibly going to go with season four, but as a person who like worked in one of the media empires that may or may not be occasionally portrayed here. Like there were, it was like it's either the Murdoch Empire or it's the Redstones. but there's so much dishy, cracking media step in there

that frankly, like, I just cannot wait for a succession to come back. I cannot wait. I would be high on my list as well. Okay, let's do some over unders, Molly. Over unders. Okay. The producer set the line for the sentence. Mm-hmm.

Over under 30.5 for SBF. Fairly easy for me, I'm taking the over. I think he gets life. I know I'm crazy. Yeah. I think the sentence is over 30.5. I'm going for the life sentence, maybe with good behavior.

He gets out a little early. but yeah I think the sentence itself 100 you know years kind of like made off kind of got 150 or something crazy like that I think it's gonna be in that range interesting life in prison definitely over 30 I'm gonna go with the under okay because I think the although the dollar amounts are high

the damage isn't that widespread you don't have like retirees you know with having lost everything like he didn't wipe out I think that there's going to be a question of the harm. Got it. And that the sentencing will become insurer. Sure. Okay. Carolyn Ellison, over under, 10.5 year sentence.

What do you got? Over or under? Because she flipped. She flipped. Yeah. She flipped early. She flipped early and her name has not shown up on as many things. So I'm going to take the under on that one too.

I think my girl's getting seven and a half. I was going to say seven eight. Yeah, feels like she's going to get a lot. sentence for flipping and given the goods. Yeah. Okay. Oppenheimer is the new Christopher Nolan movie over under 750 million at the box office. What? That's a big number.

Nothing's making $750 million at the box office. No, I mean Maverick made $2 billion, right? Avatar. So that's like over the course of the year. It's a total box office. Yeah, it's usually a year, a global box office. I'm going to go over on that. It's by a hair. Yeah. Yeah. I'm going to go over. People are excited to get back to the movies. I think so.

I think it's like, especially for spectacles. Okay, how many months left of recession starting on January 1st, over under 21 months? Okay, it does not end before or after Q4 of 2024. I'm taking the under. I think we'll be in the recession for three or four quarters in 20203 and then we'll be out of it by Q1. So I'm going to say under 21 months. Yeah, I'm going under also. I think that we are already in the recession and have been.

So I actually think we have time served. Yeah, I mean, we have growth. And that we're going to come out. Right. But we also have, it's clear we're in some sort of down market. It's a hard to define recession. It is, yeah. And China's letting a rip with COVID right now.

God help them. Here we go. Hotest take for 2023. Okay, hotest take. Mm-hmm. What is your hottest take for 2023? I have a hot take, but let's see if you have one. I can filibuster for you or I can let you go.

I have a super random hot take. that's not related to tech, which is that by 2023, we're going to be talking about like rearranging the American schedule to move winter holidays to the summer and to take time off in the winter. Yeah, I think that this year of like sickness and viruses and weather disruption is going to start a national conversation about like flipping the year. Fascinating. But my real prediction.

Okay. My real hot take is that it's not even that hot. I just think that like enough with the crypto, Michigna, a bunch of the money that went into crypto, sure, like some of it's going to go to AI, but I think climate is going to be the investing opportunity of 23 and beyond, like without question. Without question, it's the next bubble.

I think my hottest take, this is the hottest take for 2023. I think 23 is going to be, the best vintage of venture investing in the last, you know, 10 years and maybe even going forward a couple years. Twenty-three and 24, those two years are when the next Google's, Uber's, et cetera, will be available for purchase, whether they're companies already exist and they're in year three or four, you know, of their existence, or they get started in those years. It is going to be the best time to deploy capital as a private market investor.

So that's why I'm super excited about 20, 23. Those people brave enough to invest in companies, I think will be rewarded. Those people brave enough to run companies or make the cuts to keep their companies alive will be rewarded. So the best time to build and place bets, that's my hottest take for 2023 in the recession.

I know it's crazy to think about deploying capital into startups in a recession, but I learned this in 29, 2010, you know, kind of made in my bones. So there it is. That's my hot take. I also think Trump's going to win the nomination. I think Trump's going to surge.

And I think he's going to beat DeSantis. And that's not what I want. But I just, I'm sorry to put a lemon. Huh. It looked like you just got the lemon. Well, I mean, no, I think he's going to go to jail. Okay.

So there it is. So there's a good time. That's actually, right. It's either a nightmare for lives. My actual hottest take is that? It's a nightmare for libs. Or it's going to be dancing in the streets, God. I mean, that might be a nightmare for Libs too, but like...

Him going to jail is not a nightmare for Libs, but him winning the nomination. This is, you know, the debate I had with Sacks. I think that's awesome for Liz. He hates when I bring up Trump. He wants me to stop talking about Trump on the All In Pod because, you know, they really are concerned that if Trump wins the nomination, they lose the election, right? Exactly. It's great for Libs if he wins the nomination.

It's great for Libs, which is why Libs backed some Trump can. candidates, right? They gave donations in like a couple of those states to kind of get, they literally, Democrats, cynically backed Trump candidates knowing that they would lose. It's so genius. It's so sinister. It's actually like, how do you feel about that? I'm like, it's the most cynical thing I could ever imagine well played. Yeah. He's like, okay, fair enough. I love that. I love these competing takes though. This is a good. This is a good one. Does he win or does he go to jail? Or both? I would, I wouldn't. It wouldn't. It wouldn't. It wouldn't. It wouldn't. It would. It wouldn't. It wouldn't. It would. It would. I wouldn't, I would not put it past today's, uh, today's Republican Party to nominate the guy, even if he's indicted in in jail. I think he's running. If he's indicted, for sure. I don't think he's really running. Clearly he's running.

He doesn't have a campaign. He doesn't get indicted because he can be like, I'm running, can't indict me. He's dreaming. You know? Yeah. You know I've been on a health kick over the past year. And part of that health kick is the greatest fitness app in the world, FitBod. And if you're listening to me,

right now, you probably care about optimization, right? Saving time, doing things perfectly, and data-driven solutions. You know what? Fitness hasn't had these things until FitBod. FitBod is a data-driven workout app. It blends machine learning with exercise science. They create a custom dynamic program for you based on your fitness goals, based on your experience, and think about this, your available equipment, right? Maybe you're in a hotel, maybe you're at an Airbnb, maybe you're out of blue ground, and you need to use the equipment you have. They're going to mess. They're going to maximize your fitness scans by varying the intensity and the volume between sessions as well. And they make these beautiful visualizations of your body and how utilized your muscles are.

So let's check out this demo. Let's say I want to get a 30-minute workout in. And I want to work on my chest, triceps, and my abs. But I'm staying at some, you know, rental. And there's no equipment. Well, they'll create a perfectly optimized workout based on those parameters. Let's say I'm in another, you know, hotel and they got a bunch of kettlebells. Where you go to another location and you got those pulley machines, they're going to make a perfect.

workout for you. It's amazing. It is one of the most beautiful apps ever made. They get featured by Apple all the time. FitBod takes the guest workout of fitness. Just open the app and start making progress. Get 25% off your FitBod subscription or try out the app for free when you sign up now at FitBOD.m.m.m.m. slash twist for 25% off. Inventure capital category. Let's do a couple of lists. This is fine. Any VCs. Is a yes or no question? Is it dishy? Will any VCs be. charged in a crypto-related crime, Molly. Charged. This isn't found guilty.

This is charged. I say yes. Because it's a charge. Now, they could settle. So it could be the, I'm going to interpret this as the threat of a charge or a settlement. In the same way we saw Kim Kardashian settle. Okay. Right. So, in other words, an SEC action against a VC. Yeah. I say yes. I say yes. I also say yes.

I really do. I think that the token shenanigans and Gensler is making it very clear that his position is, I told you the rules. And if you did not follow those rules, that is on you. These are securities. Okay. Will total VC capital raise from LPs fall off a cliff in 2023 through Q3 of 2022, 593 VC funds raised $150 billion, pitchbook data?

compared to 2021. 1100 raised almost 150 in all of 2021. The whole year. Okay. The whole year. So many more funds, but for the same amount. So what's going to happen in 2023? Is it up or down for 20?

From 2022 to 2023. Yeah. I see no reason why it wouldn't be up. There's still a lot of money. I'm going to say, okay, you want to, I don't know. You don't even need to expand. I mean, it's,

you think it's going to be up slightly? Up massively? I think it'll be up slightly. I think that the trend will, because this is like Q3 numbers, right? I don't think that Q4 it's going to fall off a cliff. I think it's going to continue to accelerate

through the end of the year. I'm going to go. I'm just going to go with flat. I'm going to go with flat. You know, flat to down is what I would say. Flat to moderately down is my prediction because I do think a lot of LPs are going to want to get some money back.

And so they might just, You know, some of them might just pause. And then I think a lot of the VC funds, like you see, there's 1,100 new ones in 2021, 593 so far this year. I think there's going to be a lot of funds that are unable to raise and they become, you know, just like some companies become zombie companies to be zombie funds. They don't have money to deploy, but they have a portfolio to manage. And so they have to just stick around managing the portfolio, but they lay off all their staff. And maybe one person takes the management fees and just shepherds those companies. and then who knows if they are able to in 20, 23 to raise a fund.

So we did see that happen in other busts where you have VC firms. And I should probably clarify the differentiation. I think the amount of money will continue to flow into VC but into fewer funds. I 100% think that everybody hung out a single in the last six or seven years and was like, I'm a VC now and I'm a fund. And I think that could get ugly for sure. But I don't see the money into this asset class. less reducing.

That will be the trend. I think we'll see of those hundreds of VC funds that were raised in 2020 and 2021. They deployed in the peak market. They returned nothing to investors. They are decued, disqualified from raising in 2023. If you didn't return during the peak market, you know, people are going to be like, well, when would you return if you didn't return during the peak market? Okay, over unders.

Here we go. $194 million in total seed deals through Q3. in 2023. So that was 20. And that was exactly 22's number. So do you, in other words,

in the first three quarters, will we see more or less deployed in 2020? In C deal? Yeah. More or less? Less. I have a strong feeling on this.

I say less. Yeah. I say it would be less. Now, for two reasons. One, there might be less companies to deploy it in. And people might be raising smaller amounts at smaller valuations.

So there'll be more capital efficient instead of hiring 50 people, they'll hire 25, you know, to do the same, right? And they'll just be more the age of excess given to the age of austerity and efficiency. And we'll in BC's, it will be and are, at least judging from our conversations, more discerning. You've got to be stronger

if you want to raise in this environment because we don't want to see a day. Yeah. 3,900 total C deals through Q3, 2020, in other words, for the first three, which is the same as last year. So, will last years, for the first three quarters, will it be more or less seed deals.

I say it would be less seed deals because there'd be less entrepreneurs. Yeah, totally. For the same reason it would be, yeah, definitely. Okay. The average. By the way, it's fewer. Fewer, thank you.

Fewer. I'm the worst. That's right. 10.5 million. Now we have, yeah, amounts. Is the average seed deal valuation this year. What do we think the average seed deal valuation

in 2023 will be up, down? Yeah, I mean, obviously now. Yeah. I feel like the bigger question is how far down? Like do we go all the way down to like, nine or something? Yeah.

Nine. I think it'll go down like 10%. I think it's when you're at these seed deals, it's like we're putting in two million. We're putting in a million for 10% for 15%. It all comes out in the wash. So if you love the company at 8, 9, 10 or 11, it probably doesn't make a difference.

You don't need to have too much discipline there. You love the company. You're getting it. in for 8 to 12. A million dollar valuation. Most species are not going to care. I got another spicy take related to this. Another hot take.

Go ahead. I think Adams are going to be more in. Oh, okay. Because of Sasturation, I think you'll start to see a little bit of a return to real world stuff. Okay, great. What startup will make the biggest impact in 2023? We talked about last year, Be Real, Andrel, Tick-Tac.

Yeah. You think 20-3s will be. I mean, obviously, you got it. you cannot go into 2023 without talking about Open AI. Sure. But I would not take my eyes off of some of these big, interesting energy-related startups. Like, I wouldn't take my eyes off Commonwealth Fusion.

Considering the breakthrough that was just announced on the government side with Fusion, or even like an Arcadia, which is, you know, like a unicorn that's kind of revolutionizing energy use. I think somebody who figures that out, especially given the huge challenges with the grid during the bomb cyclone storm in December there, I think energy isn't to be a hot topic and that there will be a really impactful startup in that space.

Okay, energy sounds like a good one. I'm going to, yeah, this is a hard one. It's easy to say, you know, AI, you know, open AI, that kind of stuff. But I think robotics could be general robotics combined with AI. And so I'm going to go with Tesla's robot. They showed it.

I was at the developer day when they showed it. Their AI day, rather. And people were like, okay, you know, Boston Dynamics, more impressive, okay, but you're doing it. I just think the fact that they are going to have these general interest Tesla robots at the factories doing real work. What they've learned from self-driving is very analogous to walking around.

you know, avoiding obstacles. All that stuff you're putting in self-driving cars, it's the same and easier for, you know, the optimist or whatever they're calling, whatever Elon's calling it. So anyway, I'm going to take a wild card there. I like that one. Tesla bot is going to be the one

that could have the biggest impact. In other words, it starts working in the factory. People see it doing stuff and then people start ordering them and people start their own, like, why wouldn't Amazon then create a competing one? Because they already have the floor robots. So a standing robot is the next thing And then we might be seeing in the coming years

Your delivery packages You know getting off a truck It might be you know You have a driver for the truck And then you've got in the back of the truck General Interest robot carrying stuff off the back of the truck And handing it to a human Or handing it to you at your front door

Jesus I mean if that comes by 23 That's gonna be bananas I like that That's a flyer and I'm into it I think it'll have when I was So this was phrased as biggest impact I think we'll see like an example of it Just like Cafe Act shows you an example of it then people are going to see an example of it

and it's going to inspire a wave of innovation just like Chad GPT is inspiring a wave of innovation so that's how I'm interpreting the question biggest impact in 23. Super fun. Overrated hot new vertical, Molly. For 2020, we would agree things like 15 minute delivery

and crypto. We're the ones. Yeah, probably not bad. I have a, what do you think would be overrated? Overrated. I mean, ironically, it could also be fusion. Right. Fusion could either be the most impactful or the most overrated.

I like that. It's one or the other, right? It's going to be one or the other, the most or the least. But despite everything we have said about AI, I think there's going to be like, you know, in my first year as a climate investor, I felt like I was fighting with crypto all the time. I think in my second year as a climate investor, I'm going to feel like I'm fighting with AI and generative AI all the time. and I think that despite it being amazing in a game changer,

that once AI hits the real world, it's going to have the same problems, like chat GPT connected to the internet, is going to have the same problems that have stopped Google from releasing it so far. So I actually think that's going to probably be pretty overhyped because you can get 80% of the way there, but the last 20% is just like autonomous driving.

The last 20% is what kills you, literally. Exactly. Am I overhyped is going to be AR? Because Apple release the goggles. People will not have use cases for it. So very similar to like when the iPad came out or the watch or 15 minute delivery or, you know, Dow's or some crypto project. Everybody's going to be very hyped about AR, but they're not going to use it yet.

It's going to be too early. It's going to be too expensive. And so the hype cycle will be very similar to the VR one where if you're not, you remember, people were buying PCs and hooking up 20 different Oculus devices. It's just going to be like people are going to lose their minds and then it will go through that little

trial of despair while people try to figure out what applications and why they should buy this $2,500 device or $1,500 device. Yeah. It's a great one. It will go through a little overhypness and they probably won't be available in some large ways. The other probable

thing, there might be a waiting list for them. Well, there will be very much software. It'll just be like 8K TVs or something. Remember, like, remember whatever it isn't at 3D TVs? Yeah. And it was like, you know what? My son watched the Harold and Kumar, like, 3D Christmas movie the other day. To watch 3D without 3D is hilarious.

Oh, okay. Talk about an artifact. Like a moment in time. Yes. When everybody thought there were going to be 3D TVs at your house. And so now you can stream movies on Netflix that have this like BS. I mean, I never thought so everybody was like, no, you're not going to do that at home. I think AR isn't a volunteer.

the same category. Will fundraising landscape be better or worse this time next year? Better or worse this time next year? So they were saying, you know, at the end of next year will be better or worse than this time. Hmm. What is, what is better or worse? For founders. For founders. So let's ask us two different ways. Overall, 2023 versus 2022. Will 2023 be harder overall when compared to 2022 or easier? 22 has been pretty hard. Yeah. Obviously.

Yeah. So then do you think it'll be harder or easier? I think it's going to be harder. I mean, there's a, there's just a, yeah, like, first of all, there's the actual reality of it being harder. And then there's the group thing part of it. Like the, everyone is like, it's harder. So it will be harder. Okay, over unders.

Launch investments. Oh, that's for us. Ow. Oh, I had a hundred. Of a hundred. I'm going to go under. Slender. 100. This is such a good line because

the WOCard is founded university and the accelerator, so being able to keep scaling those. Yeah. So that could be, I mean, well, we're including follow-ons and we include follow-ons, I say over. Yeah, I'll go with over if it's including follow-ons. New impact, you want to take a guess there? I trust your boss. Yeah, exactly. It's kind of like bias.

Sounds great. I know. Totally. Okay. No, I'm going to go against the boss. I think you're going to underperform, J-Gow. I know. You're leadership of this organization sucks. If you decide to stop at 99, then yes.

A new impactful social media apps that jump on the scene. Okay, how many B-reels will there be next year? They set the over under at three. Or breakout B-reels even. Breakout. As breakout as B-Rail or paparazi. I say under, I think there's always one or two of these. I don't think there's three.

I can't name three from the last year. Mm-mm. I can really, yeah, no. And paparazzi barely made a dent. That's only in our little world. Yeah, I think that, I think interest in social media is going to, as a thing that you want to launch is really going to wane because there's so much regulation. There's going to be, you know, there's going to be ongoing talk of privacy. There's like Twitter backlash. There's just this, there's also this like growing realization that social media is kind of net negative. So even trying to start one that's like better. I think is unlikely. I actually think you're going to see an exodus from that space. Like, I think people are going to be like, no, content management, not for me.

I'm out. Okay, here we go. They want us to do the big five tech companies, Amazon, Apple, Google, Meta, Microsoft only for these. Which one of these will perform best by stock price and which one won't be worse? Okay. All right. Which will be best. Amazon, Apple, Google, Meta, Microsoft as measured by stock price appreciation.

See, this is tricky because I have the one I think is going to. to do the best, but it might not be the best by stock prices appreciation. Okay, explain. Okay, so I think Microsoft is going to be the best performer of 2023. I just think they're doing everything right. However, I don't think their stock has lost as much ground as meta. Right. And I think meta, as we discussed, is poised for a bounce.

Okay. So it was going to be very irritating to me that actually meta is probably going to pull it out here. Okay. Yeah, I was going to go at meta as well. I said it earlier. I think that they're going to take the meta. I don't think Suck likes losing. So I think he's going to take the medicine.

Which big tech stock will perform the worst in 2022 out of this group by stock appreciation? Gosh, I think it's going to be Google. I think the ad headwinds are going to be brutal and it's an ad-based business. So I've got to go Google. But I might think Apple might have a hard time too. But people love Apple. It's a darling. It's got to feed up recently.

So I'm going to go Google. I think Google's going to have a hard time with the chat, GPT sentiment and advertising being off. Right. I'm going to go Amazon. Go Amazon. Okay, why? Consumer getting weak, cloud computing getting cut. The consumer is going to get weak.

There's a little more, I think cloud spending might get cut. I think if a, I mean, AWS is it. Like, interestingly, it's a non-diversified company right now. And you know how I feel about the amount of money that they're spending into content, which is a black hole. And I think they haven't learned that tough lesson yet. Which consumer startup will perform best in 2022 measure by stock price, appreciation, Airbnb, Airbnb, Uber, Spotify, or other.

Airbnb, I think has been fully priced. I think they did so. good that they got fully priced. I think Spotify is a really tough business because they give so much money to the music. So I'd go with Uber. I'm talking my book in a major way here, but I think Uber's going to do a significant riff.

They said they weren't going to do a riff. I think they're going to be forced to. And I think when they do and they'll be clearly in the Airbnb money printing whereas they're free cash flow now, but kind of like are they still people debating, are they actually profitable?

Are they profitable enough? I think they're just going to rip the band-aid off, rift 15, 20% of the company, cut some more costs, whether it's stock-based compensation, whatever, and just immediately get to profitability and then start being perceived like Airbnb as a $100 billion company as opposed to a $50 billion company, get back to being a $60-70 share as opposed to a $25 share. So I'm going, Uber, what do you got? This isn't even my book, and I think this is a no-brainer. And I don't think you can even, we have not priced in the fact that, like, a lot of people

are still not traveling and they will be soon. A friend of mine actually who lives in the Netherlands, I just posted on Instagram, she's like, I will be starting to travel again in 2023. This is going to be the year that I think a lot of people who are on the fence, a lot of conferences that were still hybrid, right?

You're still seeing a lot of virtual conferences. Like travel, business travel is only going to increase in 2023. And that is all good news for Uber. So I think you start to see, you know, they've gotten to the point where it was like parody now. with the rides and the deliveries. And then I think you will start to see in 23 rides shoot up. Yeah.

Okay. Big year for Uber. Big year for Uber. Okay. I own like 50 shares too, so I'm freaking stoked. Is Zuckerberg still met a CEO at the end of 2020? I say yes. I say no.

There's a possibility of no, but yeah, I go yes. Look, it's crazy talk. I predicted the same thing like five years ago. One year, just like on a rand, like on a flyer, I was like, he's going to be out. This could be the year. If they don't continue to take the medicine and they don't make Metaverse cuts, I think it's going to be under a lot of pressure. And frankly, I don't think he wants to do it.

He doesn't want to do the Facebook stuff anymore. Okay. Let's go right to IPOs. Okay. Over under 177. Number of IPOs past four years. 2019-232, 20-20, 480, 2021, 1035, 22, 127. So they're saying, basically, will there be more IPOs next year than this year?

that's a great one. We talked about on the Tuesday show. Direct listings. We talked last week about direct listings. That could juice this number a little bit. I think, so under 22, which was like in the tank. Yes. I think it's going to be over 2022, but not much over.

Because I think it's still going to be like a pretty flat year on stock market. Yeah. Okay. There it is. When VR is set to replace. the iPhone. I think never. I still think never.

I think we will get implants. Here's my hottest take on VR. We'll get implants, AR implants before we get, before VR replaces the iPhone. Like there will be some sort of ambient computing solution that we still have not figured out yet. Sounds good.

But nobody's wearing glasses everywhere. No. Yeah, I just think the glasses. No. You look like a dork in lesser sunglasses. I have the Bose sound, you know,

sunglasses, which I love. Because when I'm with the kids or something, and they're playing in the park. I could listen to a podcast on the sunglasses and hear it. Other people can't hear it and I can have a conversation with people and I can lower it with my finger

of these bows sunglasses are dope. I mean, AR will. In five years, AR will have replaced the iPhone. Yeah. VR. No. Yeah, so I'm hard no on VR.

I'm a hard yes on AR, but I'm a hard yes like air 10 years from now. I don't know when they become sunglass light. Is that five years from now or 10? I'm not that hard. That's like that hard. That is not that hard.

phone mode. We are, but I don't think it's that. I don't, there's, like, Meta, just Facebook did those glasses that have a camera. I don't think we're that far away from being able to miniaturize. I think it's the software and the experience that's still the hard part. I would go five. I think in five years, nerds like us will be wearing glasses instead of looking at our phones

and our neck pain will be gone. and it will be amazing. Let me please have this immediately. Yeah. Okay. There you have it, folks. That is our predictions for the year, and we will see you tomorrow

with just regular news. We're back to the grind. I can guarantee you one thing. We'll still be here rocking it, having an awesome 2023. Yeah, we're going to fight. We're going to fight through this recession. We'll be here.

Great time to start a company. Great time to invest in companies. The bottom of the market is where the fortunes are made in my experience. Your mileage may vary, but I believe fortunes are made in the down market and they're collected in the up market. Welcome to the down market, Molly. Now you're starting the race at mile number one, right?

Let's get to work. It's awesome. It's a new year. Let's get to work. Let's go. Let's go to work. Bye-bye.