This Week in Startups - 2024 AI Predictions and Bets with Sunny Madra | E1873

Episode Date: January 3, 2024

This Week in Startups is brought to you by… Miro. Working remotely doesn’t mean you need to feel disconnected from your team. Miro is an online whiteboard that brings teams together - anytime, anywhere. Go to https://miro.com/startups to sign up for a FREE account with unlimited team members. NetSuite. Once your business gets to a certain size the cracks start to emerge.  Things you used to do in a day take a week. You deserve a customized solution - and that's NetSuite. Learn more when you download NetSuite’s popular KPI Checklist - absolutely free, at NetSuite.com/twist Vanta. Compliance and security shouldn't be a deal-breaker for startups to win new business. Vanta makes it easy for companies to get a SOC 2 report fast. TWiST listeners can get $1,000 off for a limited time at vanta.com/twist * Today’s show: Jason and Sunny make a bunch of predictions and bet $1000 on each for the upcoming year in AI. * Timestamps: (0:00) Sunny Madra joins Jason to make some 2024 AI bets (4:46) Bet 1: There will be a top 100 song created by AI (10:22) Power dynamics in the music industry and its intersection with AI (13:01) Miro - Sign up for a free account at https://miro.com/startups (14:34) Bet 2: AI will be capable of replicating Jason doing a TWiST Segment without listeners noticing (18:51) Bet 3: There will be an AI-generated Pixar short that has made it into mainstream (27:46) NetSuite - Download your free KPI Checklist at http://netsuite.com/twist (29:06) Bets 4 and 5: We see a small model deployed locally on an iPhone/Android (39:31) Vanta - Get $1000 off your SOC 2 at https://vanta.com/twist (49:34) Bet 6: A multimodal model will be #1 by usage, AND open-source multimodal will beat out closed models (52:00) LLaVA: Large Language and Vision Assistant (58:04) The potential implications of the New York Times lawsuit (1:10:01) OpenAI's financial success, copyright lawsuits, and the potential of Disney and the New York Times in AI * LINKS: Midjourney: https://www.tiktok.com/@controllaxyz/video/7319184981987839263?_r=1&_t=8igobwQ1dzq AI Drake: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NhVuQ06tO3M AI Spongebob: https://twitter.com/Teridax/status/1741205766046888149 AI Pixar: https://twitter.com/eyishazyer/status/1741418522448986492 TinyLlama: https://huggingface.co/TinyLlama/TinyLlama-1.1B-Chat-v1.0 Llava: https://llava-vl.github.io/ Suno AI: https://www.suno.ai/ * Follow Sunny X: https://twitter.com/sundeep Check out Definitive Intelligence: https://www.definitive.io/ * Follow Jason: X: https://twitter.com/jason Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/jason LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jasoncalacanis * Great 2023 interviews: Steve Huffman, Brian Chesky, Aaron Levie, Sophia Amoruso, Reid Hoffman, Frank Slootman, Billy McFarland * Check out Jason’s suite of newsletters: https://substack.com/@calacanis * Follow TWiST: Substack: https://twistartups.substack.com Twitter: https://twitter.com/TWiStartups YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/thisweekin * Subscribe to the Founder University Podcast: https://www.founder.university/podcast

They never told anybody this, but Fox, Rupert Murdoch put in a late bid to buy Weblogs Inc. Okay. When you already had a deal. I had the AOL deal on the, in the red zone. And they were like, hey, how about plus three million? And I was just like, how about no? Like, and I just told them like, if you're going to give an offer, that's 30% more than what they're offering, which would have been $9 million, and I'll consider it. But if you're just going to, we're not playing the prices right here.

Sorry. Respectfully, Rupert. Yeah. You sold early on that one, Jake. How wow. 18 months. from zero to 30 million. Yeah.

Dude, I needed to secure the bag. Yeah. That was the setup of all setups. Once you get your first 10 millie, you're dangerous. I always tell people, get that first 10 million in the bank and, man, you have a few money. Just to think how it's bad. It's all good, though. All good.

This weekend startups is brought to you by Miro helps take ideas from in your head to out there in the world with its ability to democratize collaboration and input. Sign up for free at Miro.com. slash startups. NetSuite. Once your business gets to a certain size, the cracks start to emerge. Things you used to do in a day, take a week. You deserve a customized solution, and that's NetSuite. Learn more when you download NetSuite's popular KPI checklist,

absolutely free at NetSuite.com slash twist. And Vanta. Compliance and security shouldn't be a deal breaker for startups to win new business. Manta makes it easy for companies to get a sock to report fast. Twist listeners can get $1,000 off for a limited time at vanta.com slash twist. All right, everybody, welcome back to this weekend startups. It is 2024 and it's Monday. No, it's not Monday.

It's Tuesday. But we're going to treat Tuesday like it's a Monday because you love, you all love this. This weekend startups AI every Monday. We'll do it on Tuesday this time because Monday was a holiday. Happy New Year. I get together with my good friend, Sandit Bontra, there he is, Sunny. How you doing, Sunny? Happy New Year. I am doing great. Happy New Year. I have my Mid Journey generated. Ah, yes, Mid Journey, generated. Yeah.

You know, it's interesting to bring up mid-journey. The big news that dropped this past week while we were on break was, of course, this New York Times lawsuit. And then I saw on TikTok, and this TikTok that said mid-jurney for audio had specifically sampled all of the major audio. to make the styles. I don't know if this claim is true or not, or if we have any backup to this. Did you see a story break about Mid Journey and musicians? No, I didn't know about Mid Journey doing the musicians stuff. I didn't see that.

It must have been during the break. So, yeah, we're going to keep an eye on that, but there are some Mid Journey artist list. Now, is Mid Journey a company or an open source project or both? Because there's another one of these situations where I'm a little confused. It is not an open source project. It is a company, and it is a not venture-backed company. and it is gone from zero to 200 million in revenue without any venture dollars.

Wow, I was totally unaware of this. Yes, and so they are leveraging open source to build what they're doing, but they are not open sourcing their model. So you can give a prompt for mid-journey on artists, I think. So anyway, this is good. I'm just curious when you saw that New York Times story, and by the way, today we're going to do some predictions and bets for what's going to happen in AI in 2024.

So we're going to make bets. We're going to make five bets. Explain to those. That's what we're going to do. Yeah, what we're going to do is we're going to make them mid-year, because a year is like really long. So let's make them mid-year. And then we're going to do over-under.

So, you know, person has to take either side of it. And there are going to be things that we've touched on throughout the last couple of months. And they're all going to be pretty relevant, I think, to how 20-24 shapes up. So the bets are also encapsulations of our predictions or my predictions, more accurately. But I think you would align there. Well, yeah. And this is going to be great. So we're going to say, hey, six months over under.

We each pick over under. We do five bets, $1,000 a bet. So if somebody sweeps, it's five dimes. Yes. If somebody doesn't sweep, it could be two dimes, three times, four dimes. Who knows what's going to happen here? But this is big money on the line here. This is not consequential.

So we've got to think about this. And that means on August 1st, We're going to check in on the bets. July 1st. Oh, sorry, I meant July 1st. July 1st, yes. The 7th month, right? Yeah.

Perfect. Okay. So, and then at the end of this episode, let's talk about this New York Times lawsuit. If we have time because everybody wants to hear your comments on it, Sendeep, because you're the technologist and I am the content creator. So we have this beautiful peanut butter chocolate here. We could have a really interesting granular discussion. What's our first bet? Okay.

The first bet. So there will be a Billboard top 100 song created by AI. A Billboard, top 100 song created by AI. Yes. Okay. Do do, do, do, do, do. Now, what I'm going to do is, we just don't want to do predictions. I'm going to show you the latest in AI lyric and song creation.

To give us a little warm up here to just levels that we're at and how much further we'd have to go. And we're going to talk a little bit about what happened earlier in the year as well. And we don't think there's been one already. Because if you told me there's been one, and one of the Grimes smashups had made it, I would have not. I would have believed it, but I don't think one has because we would know that.

Yeah, and I don't think it went into the top 100. Got it. So it has to be in the top 100, and it has to be 100% creative by AI. Not this is, you know, Taylor Swift and then they do a little AI on it.

It's an AI artist or an AI representation of, with the AI representation of Grimes count? I think it would, yeah. We're going to allow that to be part. That's okay. That's sufficient. If someone takes an AI voice. And so I think we have Nick on with us. Nick, you have just for a quick recap, let's go backwards, the AI Drake collaboration. Can you throw that on for us, Nick?

Yeah. So this is, earlier in this year, remember, there was a song hard on my sleeve that everybody thought was real. And this was sort of in the early stages of generative AI where people were kind of confused about if Drake actually did this or not. And here's just a video. This isn't the person who made it, but here's just a guy basically recreating how they did it. Very simply. Okay. She know what she need, oh, I need, or she bless.

Uploading those vocals to an AI generator. She know what she need. Oh, man, a D-S-a. She know what she need. Autotune artist, making sure that he's in key. Some light reverb on top. So this is the final result. I kind of like Producer Bay.

I mean, what's up with Producer Bay? That guy should be... I mean, he's handsome. He's got the accent and he's got the... I mean, do you see his hand, high coordination, the speed of which he's editing that stuff? Yeah. Man, producer AI Bay has got potential.

Man, he's got to drop some more tracks. So what you're saying here, Sam Kenway, by the way, is his name. Kenway, shout out. That was six months ago, right? So that was, you know, so that's what, you know, it's out there. People have figured out how to do it. Anybody can take the tools. It's indistinguishable.

It's indistinguishable today. So let's just put that out there. So it's indistinguishable. So what we're really betting on here is, and I guess I'll go first on this one. No, no, no, before we do the bag. Oh, it's one more piece of evidence here. Now, at the end of last. Yeah, exactly, because we've got to have, yeah, it's okay, it's well produced.

Yeah, you're very excited. This is awesome. So at the end of last year, just a couple of weeks ago, a week ago, Suno. AI was released, and they already have their own trending list like you would see in a Spotify. Exactly. And, you know, people have created different, you know, obviously there's a Christmas to and up here. Here's a bluegrass, inspirational lively. And so I'll just kind of rewind this back and hit play.

Then this town. Okay. And so what this does is you can create. And what I did, and I'm just going to keep going forward here, I actually made a Paw Patrol drill rap song. And so that was my prompt was using the characters of Pop Patrol, make a, you know, So breaking all copyright violations here. You got the Paw Patrol IP.

You've got whatever artist. Well, I got their name. Rapp style 50 cent in here. I love it. And so I'm going to play this. And let's go back here. Just rewind this here. cease and desist coming.

Yeah, we got the fame. Run a mission, we never back down. Just rushing bubble, we run this out down. We're walking heroes never been to clear. We got the box. Never. Okay. So.

Oh, yeah. I mean, I can see kids digging that. Yeah. And so, again, now we've gone from what the, we saw in the YouTube video where you had to at least, you know, put the lyrics in yourself, write the lyrics. This is all just prompt-based. Yes. The music is prompt and the lyrics are also generated just on a theme.

Full service here. AI, what we call AI all the way down. All the way down. Got it. Yeah. So that's where we have. You can do sort of be really bespoke or you can just say, type in prompts. There's a Spotify.

One of those songs makes it in the top 100, over under July 1st. Right. Okay. So I'm going to take the over. Now let me explain why. Okay. It's clearly this is easily technically possible. In fact, it's probable.

And in fact, we probably could have had a billboard 100 in the last year or so. So what you have to understand when making this bet, this is my thinking behind the bed. Now, wait, have you picked your choice over or under? Well, no, what we're going to do is you got to go first, so next time I get to go first. Okay, so I have to take the other. Okay, great. So you have the under by default. I took the over.

The reason it's the over and the reason I'll win this one, hands down, is because nothing happens in the music industry without the music industry making it happen. This is an industry. It's kind of like China, right? They'll decide what the REMB is. They'll decide the stock price. They'll decide inflation. They'll decide what GDP is.

Yeah, everything is decided by the people in charge. So the music industry runs like a communist country or any other, you know, any other, you know, dictatorship. So the music industry, you'd have to ask, would they want this? Would they want it now? I think the music industry is a little scared of doing this right now and opening up this can of worms with artists. So the only way this could happen is if a true. true artists like Taylor Swift, who has more

leverage over the music platforms than the platforms have over her. Right? So how many artists have more power than the music industry itself? It's Taylor Swift. It's Jay-Z. It's Beyonce. And you could tell this because remember Beyonce, Jay-Z and Taylor Swift, all

took the music off of Spotify at different points in time to make a point. Yep. Yeah. So I don't know who else is in that rarefied error, but I think it's those three. So unless one of those three says, I'm putting out this AI, JZ track, and I don't think Jay Z would ever do it. I don't think Beyonce would ever do it, and I don't think Taylor's Roof would ever do it, unless they would do it as

some sort of a goof or proof of concept. So, I think the music, and I don't think the music industry is ready for this. Because it would create all kinds of union issues, contract issues, and other things that would trigger artists to not

want to participate in the music industry, or it just creates a fight and tension that they don't want. It's smoke they don't want yet. So that's why I'm picking the over, and that's why I'm going to win a thousand Okay, well, I'm going to take the under because think about, remember Rebecca Black Friday? Yes. That kind of one hit wonder and we have those all the time. And I think given these tools, someone will create at least a one eight, one hit wonder to begin with that'll get into the top 100 this year.

So I'm actually okay with the under on this one. Okay, that's fine. You think that the music industry actually that that 100 list is not picked and sorted over by the music industry. You think you could actually break into it? It can be an independent, an independent song, right? It doesn't have to be on a label. Yeah. No, any song in the Billboard 100.

The Billboard 100, though, I think is bought and paid for it. That's all I'm saying. I don't have evidence of that. I just think this is like a Tony soprano kind of situation. How did Rebecca Blinken- I think they let her on. I think anybody gets on that list, it's because they let them on. I think it's, you can look at the history of the music industry.

You're giving us a little bit of the inside. I don't know. I don't know that side of the world there. I think it's like one of these, the few remaining industries that is run by our cartel. Okay. And from what I understand from friends of mine who are in the music industry and you can look up stories of people putting guns to people's heads and sign over these royalties. We should get Rob Goldberg on for an episode because he knows this stuff really well. He knows this music area.

I just think the music industry is still like one of the few remaining gangster-esque-driven industry. That's why I'm picking the other, but I could be wrong. Who knows? Okay. Awesome. All right. So I'm going to be under. Great.

And with action items. Coming to me. All right. Okay. Awesome. All right. So we're done the first one there. Yum.

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So the next one is AIJ-Cal doing a short episode of twist. Okay, define short. Like 15 minutes. Like a 15-minute episode of twist. Like a first segment. Like a first segment. Let's just say a segment. A segment.

Yeah, because a segment is 12 minutes. Let's go 12 minutes. 12 minute segment or less. 12 minute segment, exactly. So a 12 minute segment and... And basically, you know, we'll put it out there and no one will know that it was done via AI. Okay. So this is a setup.

This is a setup. We're going to make an AI of me. Yeah. We're going to have me comment on a news story. Yep. And then we're going to see if the audience, we won't tell the audience we're doing this. We'll put it in one of the random segments of a news program. And then we'll see if the audience can tell you.

tell the difference. That's the bet. We'll be wanting to be able to pick it. Yeah. Okay. So this, what we're about to watch is a video of a VC speaking. Yes. Using HAYGEN.

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Okay. Well, wow. So that is, look, from the video, it's perfect. The audio is a little bit,

you know, you can tell. A little robotic. A little robotic. But I, again, no mistakes. The problem is no mistakes.

Yeah. So on this one, I mean, toss you the overrunner, you can pick, but where you're at. But if you want me to go first, I'll take,

repeat what the bed is. Repeat what the bed is. The bed is, we're going to have a segment. Okay. Which is in our control. This weekend startups. You have to wear the same clothes.

I'll wear like this polo shirt. Actually, no, let's not do that because then people can, it'll be like a segment and be like, hey, this is a segment we recorded previously or something. We'll find a way not to like trip people off on it. And we'll put it in and it'll be you talking about a subject. So not you and a guest or anything like that, but maybe like copyright. Solo news, solo news, AI copyright, something like that. And we'll put it out and we'll see if people can pick it up.

Great. So we'll do is actually, here's the better way to do it. We just release it on the Twitter. We do a segment. So we just do like a newsup. Hey, you're Jake, I'll talking about this. Yeah. And we'll just see in the replies, in the replies that people say, is that AI? Yeah.

That's it. So in the replies, if they say, is that AI? Yeah. So, wow. Hmm. No, I'm going to let you, we have to do this fairly. I'm going to take the under. I'm going to take the under.

Okay. I would have taken the under as well. Okay. The under you're taking is that people don't notice. People don't notice. They interact. They comment on it, you know. Yeah.

notice, okay. No, not even one per, and look, yeah. Now people are going to be looking out for it, so you gotta have. So we'll go with the majority. Majority, yeah. Majority, yeah. So the majority of replies or something. Let's just say it's significant.

It can't just be one, but it's like, yeah. Okay. Well, Nick, how do we make this bet a little bit tighter here? How would you make it tighter? How about most people don't notice? Yeah. I will say, I do think this is, this is going to be over by a lot. And the reason is, because I,

Because I've done this before, and I've trained Jason's voice on a couple of different platforms. 11 labs, by the way, for audio only is the best one by far. Jason has a very unique cadence of speaking, and he has a unique pitch. And it's very hard for any model that I've tried to train on Jason for it to get it right. So, like, for instance, remember the Jason, Peter, Jason Jordan Peterson thing we did? Yeah. Remember how perfectly it nailed Jordan Peterson? But for you, it wasn't exactly perfect.

And I think that's because you have a really interesting, you have a unique. Yeah, I have cadence, yeah. The way of talking. I change it too because I could be excited to be up here. Yeah, exactly. I can lay back. I can lay back and be thinking about stuff. You know, I have a, yeah, as a performer, you can see I do different things.

Keep the audience's attention. All right, I like it. I like it. I like it. I get the over. We'll see what happens here. Very interesting. Let's go to our third bet.

Our third bet. I feel like right now I got two dimes in my pocket. Yeah, okay. So the third bet is AI Pixar. AI Pixar, right. We had a bet on this. Yeah. And so, you know, there's a couple of things we're going to just pull up here just to get kind of state of the art.

Level set. We're going to level set. To level set. This is just, you know, kind of state of the art. Someone made a little short here. Oh, I remember this. Yes. Was this mid-jurney or who is this?

This is a combination of tools. I think like PICA, there's a bunch of tools that people are using this now because you're, you're going to generate the characters in probably in kind of one of the big image models and use the video models to, there's a few different ways people are going to go at it. One would be straight text to video. Others will be like stitching together two or three different tools. And then, you know, in relation to this, we saw something else over the holidays, which I'm going to try to pull up here as well. So give me a second. I have to say, this is amazing.

Yeah. I mean, this looks like, I would say, K. TV movie more than a Pixar, but, you know, like the next level down. Yeah. Okay. But I have to say that the gap, I just want to point out the gap between what's a movie and what's a TV show, you know, in terms of budget of special effects, that gap is closing. And so you see this in the Star Wars films and the Star Wars TV shows like Andor or like

Mandalorian. There are moments that are indistinguishable between those two or Ashoka where like, especially especially when they're doing space battles and stuff like that, you're kind of like, that could be a movie. That could have been, you know, Rogue One, Star Wars, Empire,

you know, whatever. Or it could have been a TV show. Yeah. Yeah. And I'll tell you one, there's a, there's this thing called the Munster series,

um, with Titans in it. So like Godzilla King Kong, Godzilla versus King Kong, Kong, Skull Island. And so my daughters and I have been watching that. And then there's a TV show out on Apple TV called Monarch, which is about the secret.

organization that since the time of Godzilla appearing when the nuclear bombs went off in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, that's kind of the folklore of it all. Until now, there's been this monarch agency, this like stealth agency that tries to protect humans and monitor these titans, these giant monsters like moth or etc. Anyway, my point here is the TV show is so well produced and the Apple TV has got unlimited cash, obviously, so that factors into it. But having just watched the movies at the same time as watching the TV show, you cannot tell the difference. The difference, yeah.

There's no difference. And so that's kind of a watermark moment. Is it Pacific Rim like the thing you're talking about? Is it like Pacific Rim? Pacific Rim is, yeah, got monsters and stuff in it, but they kind of copied and did something derivative from the Godzilla series. And I really like Godzilla. And there's a Godzilla movie out. That's a Japanese language Godzilla movie.

Oh, yeah. It's been in the Apple Trending. I've seen it, right? It is awesome. I went to see the movie theaters. but subtitles. I took my 14-year-old to it, and she loved it.

Wow. And it really is about the Japanese culture. Yeah. And how they, you know, lost the ability to go to war and not have an army. And I don't want to spoil it for anybody, but it is a very soulful, deep, personal story. Yeah. With Godzilla in it. Yeah.

It's awesome. Like, they're really kind of reimagining, what Godzilla means in terms of like nuclear war, war in general, you know, and all this stuff. It's really interesting. Anyway, it might be Godzilla year zero or something. Nick, we can look it up. Here's an example, like just to build on that, Jake Lel,

they'll do the last example, then we'll do the prediction on this one. Here's an example where the voices are definitely done with AI. Godzilla minus one, by the way, Godzilla minus one. Well worth your time. Here's one where the voices are definitely done with AI because they are the voices of characters. But the video is questionable whether it's CGI or not, which is, you know, that means trending in the right direction. So this is like a short rap video that this user username Lorb on YouTube created.

And it's like SpongeBob drill wrap. So we're just going to get into it right now. hilarious. This might win two awards because that seems like it could chart on Billboard. It's kind of a quick aside. So I don't know, like you see this on Jan first, the, the Disney trademark on Mickey Mouse expired. And now people have taken Mickey Mouse and created first person shooters and all kinds of stuff. Wonderful.

Yeah. It's a Steamboat Willie. Steamboat Willie version of him. Yeah. I think is what they call it. The original original one, right? And so, but yeah, you know, when you watch that video and the lyrics and especially, you know, played it for Nick, who is definitely in the SpongeBob generation, it's,

it's pretty, pretty wild because the lyrics, the voices, and then I don't know if the animations through AI or not, but definitely someone will be able to pull that off. So what's our bet here? What's our over under bet for July 1st? We're just going to build up on the other one and we'll solidify it in here. By July 1st, a Pixar short that is also made it into the mainstream. And people are talking about it. That's why the Billboard 100 thing is there.

People are talking about it. People are excited by it. It's coming up on nightly news. A Pixar short that is indistinguishable from an actual Pixar short. Correct. And it's circulating in non-technerati circles. It's, you know, people are talking about it on the national news and everywhere. So it's so good that the national, okay, that's good.

So it's so good it gets national recognition. Yes. Okay. So it's not enough that it comes out. It has to get national recognition. I take me over. I take me over. I think it's not going to get national recognition.

I think it could, like these things, spread on X slash Twitter. Yeah. I don't think it's going to spread anywhere else. Yeah. I'm okay with the under on this one too. I think we're going to see. This seems like the best bet. This is like the closest one for me.

I think there's so many creatives out there. They have access to so much tooling and compute power that they are really going to push to create something for society. And it's going to be fun. So I'm good. Well, here's something for everybody. I'm going to give you an idea. I don't think, I think what we're doing here is we're kind of challenging the AI community. So this is a challenge to the AI community.

Take one of the Pixar's films and make a short about a character from a Pixar film that you think should have gotten more play. I'm going to give you an idea. There's the character, Anton Ego, in my favorite Pixar film, Rattatatoui. And there is a scene at the end when it's his childhood and how his mom made him Rattatatooie and how that dish, you know, changed his life. Anyway, they show a quick scene of him. It's just for a brief second. They show him going back to his childhood in the final scene of the film when he says, hey, listen, the life of a critic is not very important unless we're supporting new

things. So here we are. You could make a film about Anton Ego as a child making Ratatatouille itself or learning how to make Ratatouille from his mom. We're coming home from a rough day at school and then his mom gets in the Mandalorian. You're doing a little... Yes. You're doing a little spin-off character.

So then I think in Toy Story, you could do a spin-off character because I'm a I don't think they ever had Woody or Buzz Lightyear have a child, right? There was never, they never pursued that, right? Like a Woody had a son or a daughter. They were ageless, right? They were ageless. So here's another idea for you because they did have Woody get a girlfriend, right? Yeah.

At one point. What about if Woody Jr. And Woody has to, like, raise a kid and you just have Woody being a dad. Yeah. So there's another great one. Woody's a dad and he's got like a little son or daughter who is, you know, dealing with whatever issues. Kids are dealing.

Trust me, I have ideas. I should have been a movie. I always thought I should run a movie studio. I feel like it's not too late for me. I think in this next era that we're in, J-Cal, you've always been a content producer writing books. Obviously, Silicon All-E and, you know, Twist and all in. But I think now you can expand to that. I think it's going to be at your fingertips.

I love it. I love it. Yeah. So those are two good ideas for you. Somebody make them. Okay. Yeah. Awesome.

Okay. So to be clear, I have the over. You have the under. Under. I don't feel very good about. this bet. So I feel like I got two out of three right now. Okay. And I just inspired these lunatics in the audience to go do one of these ideas. Okay. Yeah, I know. And actually, if you do either of those ideas, I'll take you to lunch in the Bay Area.

So if anybody actually does those ideas and it's reasonably good, I'll take you to lunch. Okay, let's keep going. Okay, your business gets to a certain size and we know the cracks start to emerge. Things that you used to do in a day are now taking a week or a month. You have too many manual processes. You know that. And you don't have one single source of truth. If this is you, you should know these three numbers. 37,000, 25, one. 37,000? That's the number of businesses, which have upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle. You know NetSuite. It's the number one cloud financial system, streamlining accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, and more. 25. NetSuite turns 25 this year. That's 25 years of help

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run super fast. And so it's a 1.1 billion parameter model. It's tiny. And it was trained just in 90 days using just 16 A100 chips. So a couple of things here. It's very small to run. It was trained with basically compute that's accessible by any person in the world. And you can see that on a local device, this thing runs at like a blazing speed. All right. So here I'm going to just show the speed of one of these tiny models running.

And you'll just see here, someone's taken that tiny llama and you can see how quickly it's producing results, right? So describe what you see on the screen there. Good of listening. What we're seeing is someone on their M3 Macs, which is just an M3 Mac, which is the latest chip. You can get it in a laptop or an IMac. Yeah, only available with the pros right now. The IMac and the AAR only have M2, but the M3 is so powerful that you could train.

Well, it's not training. This is just running inference now. So someone is explaining the difference between since we're here, you know, we like to educate everybody one more time, training versus inference. So training is what you do to create a model. So you take all of the information available to you, including copyright on copyright information. Sure, why not. You feed it into your training infrastructure to build a model.

And it takes sort of a rule of thumb you can use is the number of parameters a model has. In this case, this tiny llama I just showed earlier as one billion parameters. It probably took one trillion tokens to train it. And when you get those bigger models like we see with Lama 70B, then you have to have a hundred times that amount, right? Sorry, a thousand times that amount. So seven, that would be 70 trillion, right? And then when you get into the bigger-

And define what a token. Is it a token, a word? Is it a token a paragraph, a sentence, an image? It's not quite a word, but let's just say a word. For all intents and purposes, it's a word, right? And so that's what you use to train in. Got it. So here we're running inference on the M3.

Yeah. Now you wouldn't be able to train this, model on an M3 right now. How you need those. It said you needed a... It took 16 A100s, which you can go get in Amazon. They're not like the H100. This is the kind of previous generation of Nvidia chip.

And what I'm showing here is running on your laptop, this is like writing a story about the universe. I'll just maybe zoom myself. So instead of using chat GPT4, where you're sending your prompt up to a bunch of servers that are very powerful, and it's sending the results down to you. Yes. Edge computing. We would call that client server computing.

This is your computer is the server and the client in one. You're running it locally. So if you turn off internet and you have no Starlink, which by the way, shout out Starlink, I was getting 200 megabit down. I put out my ski house and I have unobstructed. Oh, my Lord. Wow. Yeah.

It just took a jump. I got over 200 megabit down. Well, they keep launching more and more satellites, right? You know, and so. I don't know what this. I mean, I'm kind of starting to think the FCC and the United States government. is corrupt. I mean, the fact that they canceled that contract. Yeah. I don't know if you

heard that episode of All In where we talked about it. And I also had on Twist last week, I had the commissioner on, Brendan Carr on, shout out to my guys two times he's been on the pod. I now actually think that there are people at work in our government. I don't want to get all deep state here. But I think there's a contingent of people in our government who are doing corrupt things. I hate to

break the news to people, but people might have ulterior motives inside of our government. Yeah, wild. Yeah, it definitely is. I mean, that one makes no sense. No one can explain it. Well, here's the thing.

If you cancel those people's free, Starlink, because they're getting it at a discount or free, they're going to order Starlink in the interim anyway. Yeah. Because it's the best solution. So this would be like saying to somebody like, I don't know, what's the best, hands down best thing? Oh, look, an iPhone, right? So let's say you were going to subsidize people to get an iPhone, you know,

Two years before the iPhone was available, whatever, because you had the digital divide. You want to get an iPhone. And then you're like, you know, we're canceling this. Screw Steve Jobs. He's too successful. We don't like him as politics, whatever. And then all those people had a choice of what phone to buy.

And when that two-year contract came up, 80% of them would buy the iPhone anyway. Because it's the best product. Of course. So literally, we're sitting here and it's like, this pizza's incredible. Oh, no, I don't think this pizza is great. It's like, no, this is like the best pizza.

You know, Dave Port and I gave it a, 9.6. It's the highest rated pizza ever in pizza reviews. And they're like, yeah, no. And then everybody goes to that pizzeria anyway and buys it. It's a total force. I know I'm talking about my guy, but it's making mental. Jason, I would mention that the key point here is that the free market is going to figure out what the best product is anyway. But the reason that there's contention here is because the alternative is installing fiber lines, which is going to take 10 more years and cost five times the price. Yeah. Yes. Well said. And that taxpayer money is going to be burned for no reason. That's

exactly correct. Producer Nick coming in in his final 60 days here producing for this week and start us before he goes full time at all in and providing massive value in year three. What is this? Year 4 for you working for me? I don't know. I honestly don't even know. I don't want to trigger him. Wow. Crazy. For a while. He's been here for a while, but now he's

going to be working for Chamaun. The chairman dictated. Good luck to you, producer, Nick. March 1st. Sonny, do you have any, do you have any experience in that realm? You know what? I'm just joking. I think it's going to, I think you're going to have a really good time. You know, he's very generous. He's very kind.

You know, despite his gruff, sharp elbows. A lot of people, a lot of money. It's good. Let's keep at it. I love that, man. Don't get on the wrong side. I love that, man. I know a couple people got on the wrong side of your mind.

It wasn't pretty. It went to the mad with a couple people. And just be on top of it. You always are with information, right? You know, he's always very fair when you bring information to the table. So yeah. Yeah, he was your original investor, right? So deep in your,

he's been an investor in all my companies, right? There you go. All right. Chairman dictator, salute. Let's do it. Okay. Yeah, just on Starlink, I'll say, I'll say the same thing. I just want to add one thing there, which is it's, I just think the beauty now is for

those folks that are struggling for connectivity. I saw that Starlink's available at Costco. Did you see that? Yeah. No, I didn't. But that's like, yeah, Nick, I don't know if you want to pull it up or, you know, it was Yeah, no, when you wind up at Costco, it's game over. Yeah, that's when you know you're a mass market product and everybody's aware of it.

Like, you can get, like, I knew that Wagu and Kobe Beef was going to be a thing when it's at Costco. Yeah. Look at this. Yeah. Yeah. There it is. Costco. What on your boat?

I have a better one. I have a better one. Hold on. I have one where it's someone took a picture inside of Costco. I'm going to show you that. Look at this. Yeah. Yeah.

Right there. Just grab one. Grab one. Yeah. Also get the locks. There's a really good deal on Nova Scotia logs. Yeah. But I mean, my wife goes to Costco.

The FCC thing. Look, I'm not not supporting it because I think it's terrible. Is that go to your Costco, go buy one, set it up. That's it. And you don't need the government. I mean, that was my feeling on it. Listen, I'm happy for my friend and their company to save the government money and to get a great contract. That's awesome.

I think that actually makes sense to me if the other option. Because I do believe the digital. divide is real. Yeah. And I do believe that taxing people who are in cities, a modest amount, in order to make sure that we have broadband to people who are not in cities. Yeah. That, to me, seems like a fair use of government, right? You don't want people on farms and in rural America. I think it wasn't fair when you had to pay, you know, several thousand dollars to get, you know, DSL or whatever it is or phone line channels. Now, like, again, my point is, if you just go to Costco, like, no one should get that contract. If it's gone from SpaceX, it should be gone from everyone.

No, it should, and nobody gets in. And the government would be like, hey, you know what? You want internet like a cell phone, go get it from, you know, AT&T. Yeah, but I mean, if you were a libertarian and you're like, hey, you chose to live on a farm, therefore you don't get broadband. I think that is like a very unnuance position. It's like a very brute force, like, I'm a libertarian government, get out of our lives. If we live in a society and we want society to be fair and lift everybody, if one percent of Americans, let's just say 3% of Americans. So out of 100 million plus households or some budget million households,

there's 3 million people who can't get access to broadband. Would it not be okay for the 97% to pay an extra $10 a month or $5 a month or $3 a month, whatever it is, in order to subsidize those $3 million, just to get some fiber out there and make sure they don't get left behind because it is such a critical essential piece of infrastructure? I think that's worth it. I also think it's worth it for electricity and clean water and public education. right so that seems like a fair thing to do in society while we wait for technology to make those things possible

and if technology is not possible yet that's a great use of government dollars or our tax dollars we can decide as a society is that that's a good use of our tax dollars i don't think anybody's arguing that kids on a farm or living in rural america don't deserve to have the same broadpan as kids in you know and families who are in cities who have easier access so anyway shout out to the team at Starlake and also the team at Amazon and Hughes, who are also putting up low Earth orbit satellites. Shout out to all three of them. And the team at Costco. And the team of Costco.

I'll never go to a Costco. That's too much craziness, especially with my level of micro-celebrity now. I don't know if you know what it's like for me to be in a public space anymore. You do because you've hung with me. I've been with you, yeah. It's very disturbing. You could have two or three people ask for a selfie every day. It could be as much as three selfies a day, I have to take.

Do you realize how crushing that is on my e-mail to have to have? You got to take some of the people. Go to Costco. It happened. It happened. You and I were out and somebody came over and they were the biggest fans. And I was like, happy to take a selfie. They're like, maybe later.

It was like, excellent. All right. Listen, selling software is hard. It's hard right now, right? 2020, 22, 23, it's been a grind. 2024. It's going to be hard too. Everybody's making very thoughtful decisions.

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major customers because of silly stuff like lacking compliance. Just work with Vanta. Get your compliance automated and tight. Tight is right. Close those big deals, the lighthouse deals that send all the other customers to you. Here's the call to actions. Very simple. Fanta's going to give you a thousand dollars off at Vanta.com slash twist. That's vanta.com slash twist to collect a thousand dollars off your sock too. What is the bet? The bet is. Do we see small models in Apple's phones or Android before, you know. Those are two very different bits. I know.

Well, okay, we can refine it, but that's where it's going. I was like, and mobile devices. Local models on local devices. Pre-installed or installable? Let's say pre-installed. Okay, so I think we need to break this into two. Yeah, okay. I'll propose.

All right. There is two flagships. You have the pixel from Google, Google Fi, Google Pixel, which they're still producing, and they will. They put their latest and greatest on that. And then there's the iPhone. So I think we're breaking into two bits. Yeah.

And am I supposed to go first? Yeah. Okay. So I'm taking the over for the iPhone. Okay. And then should you make the bet on Android to make it fair? Yeah. And I'll take the under on Android.

Yeah. See, now I'm . So I think this is going to be a push. This is a classic push. Yeah. Well, because you know, you know, Apple takes time to do stuff. Yeah. And they're thoughtful.

And you know, Google just, you know, is getting better at throwing stuff out there. So great. Well, I can give you just. just a little. That's a great bet. I think this is the most interesting one. Yeah. On, you know, again, just before the holidays, Apple released, uh, like a version of a model called Ferret and put it into,

you know, hugging face and every, yeah. So, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, breaking news. Apple has a language model. This is a first. It's, it's not their own. So what they've done, what they've done is they've been working with existing models and modifying the, but like, the fact that they're putting this out there is, wait, wait, you know, on a GitHub account. Define putting it out there.

There's a GitHub account from Apple employees of something called ferret. Ferret. Yes. Refer and ground anything anywhere at any granularity. Yes. Okay. So this is in order to do what? This is for images?

This, it seems like they've done this for images, exactly. Got it. And so they've done this on, and the reason they've probably been forced to open source it, and I don't know like how much time you spend on open source, there's certain models and certain open source licenses that if you use them to. build with, you have to open source what you're doing. So what I'm taking this as Apple is using this and they're kind of being forced to open source it because the license, it was just a good thing for open source.

And so this tells us they must be close if they're already pushing it in the open source. So they are using an open source model. The open source license requires you to give to get. So if you want to build on an open source model, in some cases the licenses mean you have to give back any changes you make. Correct. Fair is fair. So then Apple is putting this out there, and this is to identify images and to make changes on images using AI.

No, no, is this particular model is like, you can see the example of what is a relationship between object and object? In this case, there's like a, you know, a dog and a ferret, right? And so it's basically what it's going to allow you to do is like kind of maybe ask questions about stuff on your phone. So this is for Google, this is for Apple Photos. Yes. Apple Photos sucks when you're like Bulldog and it's like, it gives you like a, a piece of pizza. Yeah.

So they're obviously working on AI for Google Photos. Yes. Got it. And instead of having everyone upload all their photos and do it in the cloud, they're like, well, you do it on your device with all the compute that we have there.

Okay, that makes a lot of sense. If you got an M3, if you eventually have, oh, no, they're using the A-chips on there. I think they're up to A-14 or 15 or something. These are just kind of like tuned-down versions of them chips nowadays. Yes.

I mean, what an incredible thing Steve Jobs did in his final years to get off of Intel and make his own silicon. What a tremendous advantage. What a visionary thing to do. What a great thing to do with your money. You know, when you think about being an entrepreneur, when you build up a chip stack, you know, what can you do with the chip stack?

You can't buy things anymore. Obviously, Adobe couldn't buy Figma and they're trying to block every acquisition. So, you know, what can you do with the money? Amazon built out data centers and warehouses. Apple decided they build their own silicon. Yeah. Elon over at Tesla built

supercomputers in his own silicon. And with Dojo. So, you know, in deploying capital, if you're not allowed to buy things, then build things. And build things that are unbelievably expensive and insane long passes. I love this idea. Like if you're at the New York Times, right, and you're starting to build up the subscription business, what could you do with the money? Well, you can buy little things like Wordle and then keep adding them to your subscription or buy the athletic, a small purchase or buy wirecutter. They should be doing, you know, and New York Times never offered to buying gadget.

etc. But let's just say they were dancing around and AOL just had the Cajonais to come in quicker than the New York Times. But Fox, I never told anybody this, but Fox, Rupert Murdoch put in a late bid to buy weblogs thing. Okay. When you already had a... They tried. I had the AOL deal on the, in the red zone and they were like, hey, how about plus three million? And I was just like, how about no? And I just told them like, if you're going to give an offer, that's 30% more than what they're offering, which would have been $9 million, then I'll consider it. But if you're just going to we're not playing the prices right here. Sorry, respectfully, Rupert.

Yeah. You sold early on that one, Jake. Wow. 18 months from zero to 30 million. Yeah. Wow. Dude, I needed to secure the bag. Yeah.

That was the setup of all setups. Once you get your first 10 milly, you're dangerous. I always tell people, get that first 10 million in the bank and, man, you have a few money. Just to think how it's bad. It's all good, though. All good. Well, no. I mean, yeah.

But I mean, Engadgett right now, if I owned Engadgett, it'd probably be doing 50 million in revenue, whatever it is, 15 million. 20 years later almost. Yeah. That's not actually that big of a business. It was a great business. Don't get me wrong. Yeah.

But, you know, I'm building something withinside.com that I showed you briefly that I think is going to be the best editorial product I ever make. Awesome.

And that's my 2020. It's one of my 2024 resolutions. And you're bringing AI into it. So it's kind of... It's an AI-based community news kind of product that I'm grinding on. And I just got a very talented person to work with me on it.

So I need a collaborator. I need like a Sendit, you know, a technical collaborator. because I'm not in the weeds. But I think I might make something that's very interesting. You know, and I've always had this obsession with the inside.com domain name.

And then I finally have the concept. Yeah. Well, with AI, it fits really well because you want to be. I think so. Yeah, based on the stuff I've shown you, I think we might have something up. We might have a winner here. Let's finalize this bet.

So we said, I got the over. Yeah. Apple. You got the under Google. Google Pixel. Yes. And it's the,

that it has the, that they bundle the model on the phone. device. Yes. On device. If they announce it, does that count? If they announced their bundling, I think it should. I think it counts.

Yeah. Announced or executed, either one of those. So if they announced, they're going to have this model. It always has this weird six, nine month window sometimes between announcements and releases. Wait, aren't the Vision supposed to be on sale yet? Didn't they say in the new year they were going to have the goggles on sale? I'm going to be honest. That's one thing.

I'm just not tracking very well. Nobody's tracking. And it's like, isn't an amazing AI? It's really great. AI has got so many practical consumer applications. that ARVR and crypto seem unimportant by comparison. I will say, and I didn't pull it up here, and I want to do it maybe next week,

but the new Raybans from meta have been coupled with the language model that they have. And so you can wear them, you can turn on record mode, and you can say, like, hey, what am I looking at? And it will explain it to you. That's what I've always felt would be the best use of those. hands down is to what's in the world, right?

So I felt like if I'm looking out at a building, if it told me, hey, in that, you know, like when you're in Japan, they'll have very tall buildings, and the buildings will, when you're looking at the building, there might be a 10-story building, and there's three restaurants on each floor. And there's all little signs, and it's very hard to navigate, and you have to go to the directory. But if I just looked at it and it said,

and I said, just show me the four and a half, five, Star Yelp review, Google reviews. Yeah. And I just looked around on the block and it just lit them up. Man, that would be powerful. Or what about you were wearing them at CES this year? And you're like, you know. Ah, yes.

Show me the, give me information on this. Information about this or just, you know, summarize what I just looked at here. Bookmark it. Exactly. Imagine real world bookmarks. I'm just looking at something and I'm like, hey, bookmark that and send it to Sundee. I look at a dish in a restaurant. I use food as the use case because we eat free.

food all the time. But imagine I'm looking at that French roast at the central bakery in Japan. And I just looked at it and I said, send this to Sunny. And it just sends you a video in the link. Man, the bookmarking shared bookmarks on AR are going to be sick. That's going to be the number one use case. Where you're like, oh, what was the name that place? And it pulls it back out and you know. French toes. Let's go. Yeah. All right. Here we go. Okay. So last one. Last bet. This is going to wind up being six bets because we have the double bet. Yeah. So, you know, it was supposed to be five, but we turn that into double. But whatever.

We'll throw another, throw another dime out there. Now, wait, are we, on the last one, are we 500 each or a thousand each? No, we'll just do a thousand. It's like, you know, makes it easier. So it's 6,000 at stake. Okay, 6,000 at stake now. All right. I like it.

Yeah. So the last one is, and we have some thing I can pull up, but I want to just lay it out first. Last year was a year of like large language models, text. And what we saw at the end of the year is multimodal. And you've started doing this with talking. You know, we had a poker game recently. And the settlement, I don't know, and I didn't share this, but the settlement was done by chat GPT.

You know, took the screenshot of the notes and did the settlement with chat GPT. And so, you know, like, typically we have someone do that and all that. And so like the bet here is over under by July 1st do multimodal models become multimodal, does an open source multimodal model become the most popular model on the planet? Does it open source multimodal become the most popular on planet? And so this would be,

you're basically saying, would it be better than chat GPT's app? Yes. That's basically what you're saying because that's the number one. And we assume it's not going to get displaced. So will chat GPT4's multimodal app be displaced?

Yes, by an open source model. Hmm. By July 1st. Do you have anything to set this up or not? Are you going to show something to set this up? Yeah, I am. I'm going to show this. Okay, let's show it up here.

And now we're not saying by number of downloads or paid subscribers, it's just a better product qualitatively. You know, like how everyone talked about chat, GBT and GPT4 through all of 2023. Everyone starts to talk about, everyone begin to talk about. Okay, here we go. Okay, so I think the way to say this is, will an open source model display ChatGPT4. Very specifically,

yes. Okay. So, is it my bet, I think? You did the Android one last, so it's my bet.

Okay, yes, your bet. Go for it. My bet. I'm going to take the over. I'm going to share my screen here. I'm taking the over here

because I just think open source takes a long time to bake and get stuff out. Okay. But maybe. So this is a, a project called Lava, a large language

and vision assistant, and it's a combination Microsoft Research, Columbia, I remember this. L-L-A-V-A, L-L-A-V-A, large language and vision assistant, visual instruction tuning. Yes. Got it. Wow, this is impressive.

Okay, wait, I may have to change my bet. Okay, hold on based on this. You didn't, yeah, you got something here. Okay, hold on that. So here's a picture of a guy ironing a shirt on the back of a taxi. Yeah. And the question that I, you know, this is in the demo. It says, what is unusual about this?

And it says, the unusual aspect of this image is that a man is ironing clothes while standing. on the back of a moving car, this is not a typical scene as ironing clothes, yada, yada, yeah, yeah, right? It's done in a more indoor environment, not, and so a person can't balance and it'd be really hard to do it. How does the model know that?

This is what's how. Oh, Jake, like, you took the hours. How does the model know that? I mean, because, you know, I understand how it regurgitates, like, what's the best coffee machine back to the New York Times versus opening.

I know, I get that. I get when it makes an image and it's like, hey, make me an image of a happy New Year image. and it just goes, finds other happy new year images and builds off of it. But what really trips me out about language models

is when they can interpret an image, that always freaks me out. This is the part where I start to think it's thinking. Well, here's how to think about it. Unless it knows this image, does it know this image and somebody described it on the internet? No, it's actually figuring this out from the context.

That's what freaks me out about AI. And so the way to think about this is, and there's a lot of, there's a lot of energy around this particular topic. People believe that LLMs are actually should not be used as knowledge retrieval systems, which is what people use them for. Like, hey, you know, tell me when, you know,

Top-Tad Expressor machines. Exactly. But more of their reasoning engines. And because of their understanding of the language, and so in order, what is reasoning, right? Reasoning is like an understanding of language, and they have an incredible understanding of language. And so if you think about what happens when this image is presented to a model,

it basically, the first thing that happens, the model has to describe what the image is. And it'll say, well, it's a car and there's a person ironing on the back of it, just a description. And then the reasoning capabilities of the model say, hey, that's just not practical. Like it's, you know, because of what it's saying here, because it's able to reason that from its understanding of all the training material it's ever seen. So it's, did there's some query going on that says- query per se. It knows that it knows

scenarios about driving and knows scenarios about ironing and then it's able to kind of infer from that you look and it tells it it's a car is moving. You want to be balanced if you're doing this so it's it's you know. So it knows that this test requires balance and is done indoors and that this is outdoors.

So it has in its mind training material when it learned about ironing. Right. And it's like, hey, you want to have a stable surface. You want to make sure it's not tilted. You know, like, you want to make sure the surface is very flat. You wouldn't do it. And it also knows that it's dangerous to be in the middle of the road.

Yeah. Yes. Yeah. So this is, I mean, I really think the reasoning part of AI is the part that I find so impressive. I do think it's a bit of a parlor trick when it rewrites stuff because I, you know, it's very easy to understand that part. The reasoning part is where I always get impressed.

I have to be honest. Yeah. And at the all in, on it's so impressive. At the All In Summit, I spend time with Stephen Wolfram. and he's really big on the reasoning aspect of it as well. So here we go. You're showing an image. What are the things I should be cautious about when I visit here?

And it's showing a lake with a dock that walks out, you know, it's like a pier. Yeah. When visiting the pier over the lake, there are a few things you should be caution about. First, ensure that you have appropriate footwear with good traction, as the pier may be wet or slippery, especially if it has been raining or if there is algae on the surface, while it's a deep pull. second, be mindful of the weather conditions. The image shows a cloudy day. Oh, here we go, which could lead to sudden changes in weather, such as rain or strong winds.

It's essentially to be prepared for these conditions. And to have a plan in case of an emergency, lastly be aware of any potential hazards in the waters such as submerged rocks or debris and avoid swimming or waiting in lakes without proper safety measures. So it knows it's a lake. It knows it's a dot. It knows that there are, since you said, what should I be cautious about? It does a reverse and says, what's dangerous? on docks and lakes and yes and then it goes into

to this one I get the reasoning a little bit better when you do something completely like the ones that always get me is when you put a meme in there and you say explain the meme yeah they do a great job they do a great job most of the time or sometimes it gets it nails it

so I find that also very fascinating this has been an incredible year here we didn't vote on this one yet it's my vote I'm taking the over I'm taking the over I'm taking the under like we saw that I'm singing with you okay All right. There we go.

We're going to put it up on the page. It'll be up. Thisweekinstarups.com slash bets is going to redirect to a bets page. If you remember any of the long bets we've been making over the last decade here on the show, or if you want to go search using our new AI website, the new AI website powered by podcast AI is this week and startups. com. All the AI episodes are available at this week and startups. com slash AI.

The bets will be available at this week and startups. com slash bets. Startup basics is at this week in startups. com slash basics. That's kind of how we do things here. because we just put a slash at a simple keyword. Sundeep can be found on

X.com slash Sundeepe. Yes. Two E's and a P. Sundeep. We call him Sunny. He's awesome. I don't think you have any room for more customers or clients

for definitive intelligence. You're all the dance card. Oh, no, you have room for one more. Okay, so there's one more client engagement for 2024 available. Definitive. Dot. Yes.

Is that the URL? That is. or Sundeepe at definitive. io. That is your email. And listen, we're out of time, but on the New York Times thing, it's going to be an incredible lawsuit. Most of these things get settled.

They tried to settle this one already. But I think there is a... I think this is landmark. It's sort of like what happened in the internet at the beginning, you know, with similar... Yeah. My advice to New York Times is to not back down on this one and go to the mat on it. That's my best advice to them, because this is the... Google Crucible moment.

If all the publishers had gotten together and said to Google, if you want to index us and you want that snippet there, because when you look at 10 snippets, you might get 50% of the value of clicking, and that's what a lot of us do. You do some search on Google, you get the one box, you get the snippets, and then they went and they boiled the frog, basically. But if the top 500 publishers that said, okay, we'll know index, Google would have been worthless. Google would have been worthless.

Let's be honest. It would have never found all the interesting information. I think New York Times should then team up with Reddit, Quora, Stack Overflow, and a bunch of other people, and they should all sue Open AI and all put these examples out there and they should just target Open AI until Open AI comes up with a licensing model that makes sense. And I think the licensing model should be reasonable so that it encourages people to do it, but it should be people's right to opt out of it, and they should be able to set their own price. So I believe what should happen is if you want to license the New York Times, you should pay a fee of $1 per year per user of your service. $1 per year per user of your service. If Open AI gets 100 million users a year, they should pay $100 million to have the New York Times per year forever. That's my belief.

Okay. Because I think the New York Times is that valuable. They made $240 per user, so they would be making $2.4. Sorry, $24 billion, right? And so they would just have to fork out, you know, a very small amount. Yeah. If they're making, you said they're making $20 per month or $2.40 per year? Yeah, $240 per year.

So they're only paying less than 1% to the New York Times, one of the top websites. So they're paying 40 bips to them. Yeah. And then they, let's say they paid Reddit and Kora, 10 bips, 15 bips. And let's say 30% of Open AI's revenue went to licensing deals. That seems pretty fair to me. If 30%, if Google, if 30% of, if Google, if 30% of, Google's revenue went to publishers right now,

hundreds of billions of dollars in revenue, we wouldn't have the problem with publishers being underfunded right now. So I think, I'm going to give it the, this is my best J-Cal judgment. It's a J-Cal judgment call. Okay. 70-30 split.

The language models keep 70, 30% goes to who they trained on. And you've got to show up, you've got to have a license, you've got to have New Yorktimes.com slash license. txt and the license that txt should if you make it available then you should have in there what a cost and you say it's a dollar per user per year forever and it don't do a one-time fee i think the one-time fee is the stupid stupidest thing you could ever do it should be a yearly licensing fee if you want

my book in your index angel i should get paid i don't know what's a reasonable amount $25,000 a year what about all the content of twist yeah okay so if if you're Listen, if they said, if YouTube wants to train their model on Twist, 2,000 episodes, I would say, I don't know, $100 an episode per year, $10 an episode. I would take $25,000 to $200,000. Because once it's done it once, you don't need to go backwards, right? No, but I want to, because just like artists should get paid residuals for their music. So that it encourages more people to keep making music so that they can make music for the rest of the lifetime. because YouTube and

Open AI are going to be making money on it for those years. So if they make money on it for those years, why should not? Everyone should. Yeah, okay. So that's what, this is where fairness comes into play for artists. This is my belief.

I get royalties on my books. I can have continuing revenue from this week in startups. If I can take my stuff off of YouTube anytime and I can just let people go direct. If YouTube wants my stuff, if they want to do a language model on my stuff, if they want to index it,

it should just be, they should cut a deal with me. And people are like, oh, that's not possible. You know what? Open AI cuts a deal with every employee. Yeah. Right? Google has tens of thousands of employees.

They cut a deal with every employee. It doesn't mean it doesn't have to be standard, but they can do it. They can do it. And maybe if you're in the long tail, if you have under X number of pieces of content, maybe you just have to take the standard deal. But maybe when you're over a thousand podcast episodes

or over 10 million listeners, then you have the ability to negotiate. So again, I would just put it in my license. Here's my license terms. I like your approach. I'm in like a different technological headspace on it. Going back to this reasoning thing,

I think we are at a place now where we have models that can reason. And we don't need to use them for information retrieval. So if you're trying to get the best review of an espresso maker, you can basically have the model reason to go out to something I have access to and pay for it and go get it. and go get it. So if I'm already subscribed to New York Times, it should be able to use my subscription to go get that from wirecutter. 100%. And New York Times will provide that.

And so I don't. Yeah, exactly. And I don't think models need that information anymore. I don't think models get any better by feeding them all the wire cutter information. Yeah, because they already adjusted it. Well, I think even if you took it out and retrained the model, I think we're at a place now where their reasoning capabilities are so good that if you, going back to that image, right, that we just showed with the multimodal model.

I do think a different business model will emerge, which is more like connect it to things I have access to rather than that licensing approach. I think that's what will end up happening. I think for people who have large amounts of data and that data is continuing to grow, because in New York Times said, like, their goal is to like increase the amount of content they have by 50%, like the number of articles by 50% in the next four years or something. Wow. Okay. You probably want to have access to those next 50%.

you know, percent increase. Because that'll be the newest, fresh is information. What if the advice on cancer treatments, what if the political landscape and history of Ukraine, Ukraine, Ukraine changes, you know, and you want to have that information in your model, like, and it's in the New York Times, and that's the freshest data. It might be worthy to you to give them $100 million a year to have that new access. Yeah.

Like, you may want your model to have that when you comment on Ukraine. You know, is David Sachs right about Ukraine or not? And like, well, we'll find out in the next five years if who was right, Biden, NATO, SAC. It's a real intersection between technology and publishing and then human knowledge. And like, how does that all work together? It's a really, really. And being respectful of content creators is the best model for technologists. We have not always been.

And I sit at the crossroads of both. I want to see the most powerful AI. And I want to see humans who create great kinds of. content be compensated for it in the long term. Yeah. And it's so unfair. And this is the great thing about the New York Times lawsuit. And I applaud the New York Times for filing it in such a deliberate way because what they've

done is they've proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that these things are getting massive value and taking value away from the New York Times franchise because the New York Times is behind a paywall. They require subscriptions. Open eye requires subscriptions. And so I think actually as a human being, you will be making your. decision. To get this information, is it better to use the opening I interface or the New York Times interface? And I find myself doing searches about, I literally did one on coffee grinders.

I was looking for a coffee grinder. I did it in a chat GPT and I got everything I wanted. Then I went to wirecutter and I was like, oh, wait a second, this looks familiar. And it was like somebody had copied their homework. You know, when you take the two multiple choice test and you hold it up to the life. And you could see like, oh my God, you picked all the wrong answers as well as the correct ones. Yeah. And I bought the OXO $99 or whatever it was, great Coffee grinder, I love it. It's great for drip coffee. I may not be what espresso people want.

But I'm paying for both subscriptions. I think people will pick one. Yeah. And I think they proved it perfectly. And then I don't know if you started over the weekend. There was a person who did what I did with the Jedi, Bulldogs. Somebody said, make me two Italian cartoon characters in a race or whatever.

And it made Luigi and it made Mario. And then they did it again, like a couple of days later. and it wouldn't let them make Mario and Luigi anymore. Yeah. And so Open AI is going through right now in testing and removing characters they know they don't have the IP for because they know they're going to get smashed with a Disney lawsuit and a Nintendo lawsuit any day.

It is Nintendo's right to make an AI, generative AI, where you can make the characters and make birthday cards out of them or, you know, tweets out of them. That's their IP. They have the right to make those derivative products, not Dolly chat GPT $20 a month. Yeah. Well, the other ones are doing something similar.

I read something similar about Mid-Journey, where people were recreate, in the latest version, they were recreating, like, you know, Marvel superheroes and stuff. Of course. And you know what?

I want to do that. Yeah. But if I'm going to do that, I kind of feel like it should be part of my Disney plus subscription. I shouldn't be doing it for free. Yeah. Now, I know everybody wants everything for free.

But why would Stan Lee create the next Marvel characters if there's no residuals or no rights to it, and everybody can just have a free-for-all? Why should open AI or Mid-Journey or stable diffusion get to make Marvel characters for my birthday party invite if I want to do it

an Avengers birthday party invite I should be paying a license to or it should be part of my Disney Plus subscription that's only fair it should be part of my opening I subscription

Yeah Yeah 100% If you wanted to make a parody Parity is allowed But if you are providing a service to create parody That's not allowed

So if I made a parody So you can go and create memes Well if I made memes on my own, using a local version, and I'm not trying to make money from it. It's under parody. It's fair use. If I make a tool to make parodies and I charge for that tool, then I've, now I'm making, then if I'm the meme generated, now I'm in trouble. So this is what people don't understand about copyright rule. It's so nuanced that people are like, well, why can I could draw it myself? It's like, yes. But if you started charging for drawing it,

now you start to get into a different place. So if I, I did, if I started charging people on the web, $100 to make versions of Iron Man or versions of Jedi, and I named them and I put Star Wars on it, that's, I'm not allowed to do that, right? And here's to Mario Brothers. Dolly doesn't need, so this guy, Gary Marcus, is just doing what I did like a month ago, right? He copied my thing here. But he said video game Italian and it made Mario Brothers. Of course it made Mario.

We're getting into the place where these things are going to need to block certain characters and not have the output as well. And I think that's right. I think that's the right thing to do. And I'll be honest, I said something in my newsletter. I think I may have to do a clarification on. I said something to the effect when I wrote about this the day it happened, that a bunch of people at OpenEI used the stolen content to make a bunch of money in the secondary offering. I actually don't know.

I was kind of reading their minds. I don't know that each an individual open AI person is acting that way. So I take that back. I'm going to clarify it, that sentence because I don't want to mind read them or their intentions. They might be just doing AI because I think it's good for society, or it might just be a job and they don't feel particularly either way about it. But the fact is, it's unfair that Open AI is selling billions of dollars based upon

of shares. Yeah. They might sell more shares in their secondary than the entire value of the New York Times. if they sell $8 billion in secondary, which is completely possible over the coming years, they sell eight, because a company, let's say the employees own 30% of the company is $30 billion. New York Times worth $8 billion.

So when those employees liquidate, they're going to get four times the value of the New York Times and they built it on the New York Times content. That's unfair. And that's where they're going to get so demolished in court for damages. The damages on this could be unbelievably high because so much commerce.

If Open AI wasn't so successful and it was a nonprofit, it would be so hard to do damages. But once the employees are selling billions of dollars in shares and they have 100 million paid subscribers or whatever they have, that's when it becomes profoundly unfair. I just did Thanos as a farmer in Mid-Journey. Yeah.

That should be done on Disney Plus. That should be a feature of Disney Plus subscriptions. Make your own characters on Disney Plus. And then it puts a logo there, made by Disney Plus. There is going to be a language model made by Neurney Plus. Times, and this is my thesis. What if the New York Times competes with Open AI heads up? They take a language model that was built on the New York Times content, and then they have

a model where having access to that is pretty dope, and it increases the number of New York Times subscribers, and then they go buy Engadget from Yahoo. They go buy TechCrunch. They go buy a bunch of, they go by Reddit. Well, they would just take one of the big open source models and then fine tune it with their own data. Hopefully that model wouldn't be. built on stolen content either

so they'd have to find a clean model. On the open source models, we can see where all the training data came from. So if they did that, and then they made the New York Times model, as long as they don't have to give to get like we talked about earlier in the program, the New York Times is a competitor to chat GPT, and that's what the courts will realize.

And I am the tip of the spear. I pay $300 to both companies. I will not pay $300 to both companies forever. I will pick one. And if if it goes away chat GPT is going, I'll probably cancel my New York Times because I'll get all the value from that. Yeah.

Yeah. I mean, Apple does this really nicely with the news, Apple News Plus thing. Yeah, they pay. You have to have an, and I have, what's it called, Apple One or something? Yeah. For my family, 40 bucks a month. Exactly. I spend $500 year with Apple.

They made it much more expensive. It's like, it's more expensive. No, mine's $38 a month. So it's $500 a year, basically. Yeah. I get Apple Arcade, Apple Music, Apple News, everything, Apple TV Plus, for my whole family and two terabytes of storage. It's the greatest deal ever.

It's $100 per family member. It's great. And it's simple. So this is what Chad ShepT should do. They should have part of your subscription be for one. Apple did it right. Because they respected that. Now, imagine if Chat Chbett said, include New York Times for $2 more a month.

Include Disney characters for $5 a month, for $10 a year, $1 a month. That could be a great way for them to make cut commercial deals. with people. Clearly they want a deal. I think, you know, if this is my challenge to Sam Woltman, if you're such a great dealmaker, you know,

people are saying he's such a great deal maker, well, then make a deal. Let's make a deal for content creators. Make a deal. You know, like make a revenue model that's sustainable. All right,

this has been another amazing episode. We went a little overtime. Happy New Year. Again, yada yada. And we'll talk soon. Bye-bye.