This Week in Startups - All-In E11: Election Night Special featuring surprise guests!

Episode Date: November 4, 2020

Follow the crew: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Follow the bestie guesties: https://twitter.com/bgurley https://twitter.com/phil_hellmuth https://twitter.com/altcap https://twitter.com/jcpolls

Hello, everybody. Welcome. We are live at the All In headquarters and the All In podcast is now live. We have 63 people watching already and bear with us while we get the besties on the line. I'll be doing my introductions in just a moment after I tweet this. But it is an eventful night and we had to start early because it's looking at. like this could be another shocker. And I am not being facetious here. I am not happy about this, obviously. But Trump looks like he's been underestimated again. This is not a blowout. We are going live early. This could be a shocker, folks. Okay, so with me early on the pod is regular David Friedberg. David, you're watching this early action and what's your early reaction to what we're seeing. You know, Trump's moved.

There's nothing definitive yet, but he's moved in the results and he's moving markets. We're seeing Forex markets show a sharp indication that Trump has a real shot at winning here. Treasury markets, and as Phil Helmut will share with us, betting markets as well. So it is more of a nail biter than game seven of the Warriors calves. So here we go. This is a hell of a nail biter, guys, and I'm just going to say this. The UK markets had it first. He was five to two.

You could get trump at five to two, two and a half to one. Then it hit five to four. And I thought that was quite crazy. watching CNN, you're watching these networks, and they're saying, oh, my God, Biden's winning this. No, they're not even in the right neighborhood. I'll never watch a network again on election night. And now, the market from five minutes ago, 368 million pounds wagered. 368 million pounds. Trump is now a three to ten favorite. Okay. So for people, Phil, who are not gamblers, if you bet $3.00.

Let's put this in dollars. You bet $3. No, no, Jason, you have to understand. If you bet $13, okay, you don't get $13 back. You only get $10 back. Okay. Now, if you want to bet Biden, it's $7 to $4. So if I bet $70, if I bet $40, I can get $70 back on Biden. Now, the shocker is right around 6.28 p.m.

The betting odds, the markets have been in Biden's favor for three straight months. I've been live posting them on. on my Twitter all day. The worst I saw was Trump was Biden was minus $1.25, still a big favorite to win. And then boom. And there are people in my house that are actually crying. You know, I'm very much more in the middle of this thing.

But all of a sudden Trump, all of a sudden it was five to four. Then it was even. And then all of a sudden Trump was nearly a two to one favorite. I'm getting live information from my friends right now. I'm seeing that it's a little bit lower on some of these sites. I saw 267. That's for a $200 bet, so he's a pretty big favorite. I saw the lowest I've seen is $2.17.

But Jason, if you're watching the odds and I put some stuff on my Twitter, it's amazing how it went from, you know, minus $1.70, you know, all the way down minus a $30. Then it came all the way up to minus $1.70. This is crazy. And I've seen this movie before in 2016, actually. Okay. So we all know that you need 270 electoral votes to win and that there were a couple of states that were critical for Trump to win.

And it seems like those states that Trump was critical to win, he has now won. So let's bring in David Sacks. David, we just turned on the live stream. and boy, is this a turn of events that I don't think any of us, except for maybe you, but you were very pessimistic on the last maybe three or four, all in podcasts. You're watching these results come in. The betting markets have totally flipped to Trump. What are you seeing?

And what can we expect tonight? What are you looking for? Yeah, I mean, it's looking just like 2016. I mean, you're right that I was looking at the polls in the last few pods that we've done. and there was no way to say anything other than, you know, Trump was the underdog. But at the same time, I still thought that Trump had a really good shot because I was watching both candidates

on YouTube all the time. They both were doing live events. I wasn't watching it with the commentary. I wasn't watching the clips. I was watching Trump do these rallies. I was watching Biden do these parking lot events. And I would see Trump do four, five events a day flying from

tarmac to tarmac on Air Force One, having these huge crowds. I saw him do this event in Butler, Pennsylvania over the weekend. It looked to me like there was tens of thousands of people there. And I remember Trump saying a line like, you know, this doesn't seem like a second

place crowd. And, you know, it's one of those Trump lines, but, you know, it did put in my mind this idea, you know, he's got a point. Whatever the polls say, we're seeing tens of thousands of people show up at these events who are fanatical. I mean, just fanatical for Trump.

And so you always had to think that he had a chance of pulling off and upset just like 2016. I will say what I said on our text earlier, Donald Trump ate the COVID virus and killed it with his body. And then he stood in front of the White House and ripped his shirt off and let us all know that he is our leader. He did not get elected. He claimed victory. beginning in 2016 and he has not and will not let go since then. And I think it is that cult of personality that... Cult of personality.

Draws so many people in that are just, you know, feeling like they need change and they need leadership and they don't need something from the old school. And he stood up and he showed us that this whole thing is a fake. COVID is a fake. Government is fake. The people are fake. The media is fake.

I'm getting some late numbers. I'm getting some late numbers here, you guys. He's now minus a $1.59 to win Pennsylvania, and they took every other number off the board. However, if you're a Biden person, Jason, the number is only 2.17 right now. So, but wow, the polls are, posters were miles off on this,

and this is just amazing. And it seems like from what we're hearing from the report, is that the pollsters did not understand the Latin, or I guess Latin X is a way to describe a group of people who actually don't think exactly the same. I've always had a weird understanding of this term Latin X, which seems to come from the woke left. But Cubans, Puerto Ricans, Mexicans, these are different countries. They're not all the same. Venezuela. This is not a monoculture just because. as they all speak the same language,

and we're seeing something very different happen in Florida right now, where male Cubans maybe are voting very differently than what pollsters expected. Bestie Chimoth is now fresh off a tight haircut, and he's here on the pod. We've got Bestie Phil as our first Bestie Guestie of the night. Bestie P. How are you, Bestie Pee?

Chimath, you and I, we shouldn't talk about this. This is about politics, but you and I were just filming high-stakes poker in Las Vegas. On Friday night, it was great to see you, Besting. Is there any indication you can give us besides? I mean, of course, there's a presidential election that is going to determine the future of humanity.

But more importantly, how did you each do in the high-stakes poker game? The biggest part of the night was around 400K, maybe 500K, played between me and Dur. Me and Tom. Yeah. And he won? He did not win that. Oh my lord.

Chimoth on that one. Go, Jamas, go. And it was, I think it was beautifully, beautifully played. I think Doug Polk will definitely do a short video clip on it. I did a, I did a very, very sneaky, three-bet pre-flop, turn, check, river overbluff, and got him to call. Oh, my Lord. A little set bomb, I'm guessing, but here we go. Jason, I can't.

I can't wait, since I'm here to promote, promote, promote everything I promote. You can only watch these episodes of high stakes poker. A lot of players' favorite show. You can only watch them on the Poker Go app. They're coming out December 16th. Meacham, Phil Ivy, Tom Dwan, Ben Lamb, a lot of your heroes. Take it away. Oh, wow.

Can't wait. Can't wait to, and I have a subscription to that all in. I'm sorry, the Poker Go app. It's well worth it. David Sachs, you have one of your... I'm recording. friends on the pod, why don't you introduce one of your consulting friends and we'll have him tee up what we think the possible scenarios are and where we're at right now at this very

moment. Yeah. 6.57 in California. Yeah. So Michael Newman works for me as a researcher and he's a political scientist, I guess you could say, and I've known him since college. And he's very steeped in a lot of these races. I don't know if he's, yeah.

I have been obsessively following politics since the Reagan election of 1980. So I wasn't alive then. No, I'm afraid I'm, I was only 10, but I was already a political obsessive. And as you can imagine, a real hit with the ladies as well. So tell us what are the key states we need to focus in on here and which one of them have enough reporting for us to sort of put them in a column and then move on and understand the path to victory for Trump or Biden? Yes. Well, I mean, depending upon which network or news organization you're following, they're either calling a lot of states or they're being very conservative about their calls.

I mean, NBC has still not called Florida for Trump, but there's really no path for Biden to win that state. So you can put that safely in the Trump column. He has just taken the lead in North Carolina after trailing all night. We've got about 88% of the vote in now. And I suspect he's home free, as is the Republican incumbent senator there. Can I can I just can I just ask a question? I mean, isn't it typically the case that the counts from the most populous urban areas come last? And those tend to skew more Democrat than Republican. That sometimes happens. It depends on the state. Some states have their rural areas come in last. One of the things that has changed the vote in North Carolina is as the early vote came in, as the in-person early vote and mail-in ballots came in, the last counties that reported that early vote were the rural counties. That's why early on it looked very good for Biden and now it looks like it's trending away from him. Well, wait a second. North Carolina, according to the New York Times and according to CNN right now, is favoring slightly Biden, 49.7% to 49.1% for Trump with 84%.

I don't think that's quite current. I think they're up to about 88%. But again, yeah, it's very close. What's interesting is Biden had five potential states where he could have knocked Trump out. Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas. Florida's off the table. We don't, yeah, Florida's off the table. The others are still on the table, but none of them are trending Biden's direction at the present time. So he, so far Trump is staying in the hand, as you poker players would say. He's getting the cards he needs to stay in the game. but we still have the river to play. And the river would be, in this case, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania.

Texas had an early lead for Biden, which was crazy to see. Right now, it's got Donald Trump at 50.3 Biden at 48.3 percent. Guys, again, again, so that's starting to normalize. I go back to this one very critical thing. The reason why Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania right now are Trump is because when the county is counted, you can pass the, votes and you can report. And if you have 25,000 people in a county versus Allegheny County, which has like, I don't know, hundreds of thousands or a million plus people, it just takes longer. Yes. No, listen, I don't characterize Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania at all. I think one of the reasons why Michigan right now looks so red is because they're counting today's vote first. A lot of these other states that, like Florida, that had the option, because their legislature allows them to do

this, they counted all that early vote in advance, and they dumped it in one big pile as soon as the polls closed in the various counties. So that's why you saw early on a blue mirage there. What you're seeing in a place like Michigan right now is probably a red mirage because it's, it's today's vote, which was going to skew Trump because of the, because of the way he presented it to his people. Florida was the one state, thank goodness, for his. his sake that he encouraged people to vote early and by mail. In the other states, he encourages people to vote today. Here's a stat in Pennsylvania. I'm on the Secretary of States reporting dashboard.

They've counted only 12% of the mail-in ballots, and the total mail-in ballots is 2.5 million, which is huge, right? And they've only counted... It should be a majority of the vote, I would imagine, yeah. Yeah. And they've only counted 24%. Actually, sorry, they've only, yeah, they've only counted a handful of precincts at this point. A quarter of the precincts. Here's something I don't understand. So Nick Carlson from, was it like Business Insider, he just tweeted minutes ago that North Carolina, Biden is a head. head with 99% of the vote counted and Biden has a less than 0.2% lead, but it's 9,000 votes. But that's, I mean, that's, that would be a huge problem for Trump.

If he lost North Carolina, I, listen, I think a loss in any of those five states, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, or Texas is probably. Shout out, by the way, guys, I just want to give a shout out to Natham, who's listening here all the way from Sri Lanka. He's listening. He just texted me. Okay. By the way, guys, right now, the odds. are three to one on the betting market. So, I mean, obviously the networks I realized are completely useless. I stopped watching him a long time ago when they had Biden way ahead in Florida,

and the odds were 10 to one against. Right now, if you want to bet, Trump is a three to one favorite on, and there's been billions of dollars bet in England, Australia, all over the world. He's a three to one favorite. It looks like it's real to me. And just to just to just to build your side of the case, uh, NASDAQ futures ripping S&P futures fall. falling and the 10 and 30 year falling, Remimbi ripping. These are all pro-Trump trades. And the euro the euro collapse, the euro dollar falling sharply once the markets turn towards Trump. Well, here's what they're reacting to is Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Trump is all up big time. Now, I mean, it's only, this, that lacks a very basic understanding

of how county reporting is happening in these highly populous, you know, or these sort of, sorry, these bimodally distributed states where they have a bunch of suburban and rural vote that's fast to count and the big places, for example, like, you know, you're not going to see Milwaukee and Green Bay report until probably close to midnight. So the question is, why are the betting markets so pro-Trump then? What do they know that we don't know? I will say this. Let me say this, Jason.

I mean, if you're like, you're talking about billions of dollars, right? And so all you had to do is design a system to figure out how. how to calculate votes earlier and make a couple hundred million dollars. Okay, these are the smartest people in the world. There's hundreds of millions of dollars, billions of dollars at stake. They obviously do it 10 times better than any other site than any other network. So this information, I mean, I give a friend of mine posted, hey, I'm laying two to one on Twitter. Guys, on Biden.

My other friend bet $400,000 to $800,000. Trump. And now he looks like a genius. Somebody knows something that we don't know. Well, Trump just on Bovada, Trump just moved to minus 600. Yeah, he just took Michigan. Unbelievable. It looks like he's ahead in Michigan.

But again, we have to see Detroit. And there's a bunch of places in Michigan. Let's let's let's bathe. So here's the North Carolina Secretary of State dashboard. And they're showing two thirds of the counties. And you can actually see by county when you go onto their dashboard, the, you know, Chama, the larger counties are partially reported. Most of the smaller counties are fully reported.

63% total with, you know, Biden ahead by literally 1,000 votes right now. Across 2.5-2 million to 2.521 million. Wow. What percent reported is that? I mean, it's 63% of the counties have completely reported. And so the remaining counties, if you look at the reporting status, the remaining counties that are partially reported, there's a mix of rural and some of the urban counties, you know, Durham's in there partially reported. So there is a mix. It's not only—

Durham should be a Biden county. The research triangle is upscale, well-educated professionals that I think are the backbone of the Democrats' coalition in a state like North Carolina. Now, they have absentee votes that are counted, and they have so far counted 3.3 million absentee one-stop votes and a million votes by mail. But that's how many came in. It actually shows that only five. Oh, I see. Yeah.

Okay, that makes sense. Trump is now ahead in Ohio by. Two-thirds of the votes were absentee or mail. Post the link into the Zoom chat so Nick can pull it up on the screen, please. I need to get an understanding of something very basic here for the audience who's not degenerate gamblers. Is there a chance here, Phil and Chamath gambling experts, both, that people had put early money on Biden and are now covering or hedging some of those bets. Is that a possibility here?

Yes. Okay. Jason, Jason, the line is minus $1.5.4.10 on Pinnacle right now. Let me just double check that source. So what Phil is saying, Jason, is like, yes, there's going to be a bunch of essentially covering. Now, that covering will swing the line. But I think what Phil is also saying is when a line moves this violently, literally what we've seen in the last 35 minutes, is both the equity markets, the currency markets, and the betting markets flip 180 degrees from where they have been, not just all day, but frankly, where they're

they had been probably for the last few months. That's what I was saying, Shemath, for three months straight, right now, Biden has been a favorite anywhere between three to one favorite at one point, all the way to maybe, you know, 50% favorite. And then all of a sudden today, the lowest I saw was $1.35 and I was kind of shocked. And the next thing, you know, boom, Trump's a three to four to one favorite. So, and I'm looking at CNN and I'm looking at these networks and they're still, they still have Biden ahead.

And I'm like, wow, what is going on? on. They're way behind. That's the next thing we need to take care of, Chumot. There's a business for you is somehow we can deliver the right data on elections quickly. There you go, Sachs. Yeah. Well, I think the betting markets know something we don't know because Trump is just, you know, if you look at like the live stream on Twitter or the New York Times or something, Trump just slightly took the lead in Ohio, but that's the state he's supposed to win. In North Carolina, it looks like with over 99% reporting, it looks like he's He lost by 9,000 votes.

By the way, a 9,000 vote margin would probably trigger an automatic recount of North Carolina. And there's like 100,000 absentee ballots there. I don't know if those have been counted yet. Okay. So let's pause for one second on this, everybody. North Carolina is one of the four or five states Trump has to win in order to have a victory. Right, Michael? I absolutely agree with that.

He had to have those five, Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, Ohio, and Texas. Okay. So we have Florida. He's got. Now there's four left. There's four left. Georgia's a very slow counting state. We really don't know.

All of Atlanta could be out for all we know. So we leave Georgia on the side. So now we've got four states we can work with. North Carolina is in Biden's pocket by just a hair. Yeah. That could change. And it would trigger a recount, which would take days to weeks. Yes.

The other three states, let's go through them systematically one by one, Michael. Okay. Ohio was the biggest. surprise of the night when Biden built an early lead there, although again, a bit of a blue mirage based upon the fact that the mail-in vote and the early vote came in so strong for the Democrats this year because they emphasized it and the Republicans kind of fought against it. Michael, Michael, with 49% of the vote in Ohio, okay, he had a right now, Biden had a massive lead and he had about a 400,000 vote lead with half the vote. Correct. And when you look at the betting

odds, he was five to one underdog to win the state. So something, doesn't add up there. And you can you can say, all right, some of that is all the early voting went for Biden. We know that to be a fact. But there's something else there. Okay. I'm just looking at the results for Ohio. We'll stay on Ohio for one more moment. And then we have another guest who just jumped on. Ohio is currently showing Donald Trump with two point rounding it up, 2.4 million votes to 2.2 million slightly rounding up for Joe Biden, 52% to 4%. 47% with 78% reporting. Does that mean we feel comfortable with Trump winning Ohio? Unless all of Cleveland is outstanding, I would say that's a Trump state.

Okay. We now have John Cohen on the line. John is a member of the survey monkey team. John, welcome to the all-in pod. Can you hear us? Thank you so much. I'm sorry I didn't hear what's going on. I don't know how much you've been disparaging pollsters so far. So let me know what I'm coming into it. We were waiting for you. We're waiting to get here. Tell us as we start what your prediction was earlier today. Well, we're very clear to say that we're doing measurements, not predictions. That said, the measurements that we were doing clearly pointed to Biden advantages across the board. But we didn't have, so far we have no surprises. You know, we had Florida had been Trump plus two basically all week.

going to dead even, you know, coming into the election day itself. We don't know where the final votes will be. Most analysts think that it's in Trump's camp. It may end up there, but it's super close. We had Georgia close. We had North Carolina close. Although, and North Carolina had been closing. It had been a big Biden lead. It was down to under two points with the Senate, you know, kind of even closer than that in some of our data. So, you know, so far there's no obvious surprise here like, damn, the polls were really wrong, certainly ours. You know, it's early, though. We're not declaring victory on those. Obviously, there's a lot to watch.

But nothing really to surprise, you know, us giving them the numbers so far. What about Ohio and Georgia? So we had Ohio pretty consistently in Trump's camp. We had them up four. So it's trending that way now. We had it as close as two points for Trump. I mean, again, I haven't mentioned the word margin of error. That's in my professional obligation and duty to mention it.

It's around three points, I believe, two and a half in Ohio. So close, but we always had it in Trump's camp. Again, Biden, that wasn't part of Biden's, you know, any of the past, a victory that the campaign was counting on. So, you know, no big deal. But we went from having an early night to now we're for sure and for a really late night here. John, let me ask you one of the most basic questions that I've had, which is what did we learn from 2016? And tell me what exactly did people try to fix? Like, what was the thing that everybody got wrong?

And what changed? Well, the biggest thing that polls fixed was how they adjust their polls by education. What we see in polling, no matter how they're conducted, whether online as we do a survey monkey or still on the telephone, which most media pollsters do, is you get people with more formal education to answer those surveys in far greater proportions than you do people with lower education. So the biggest thing you've got to do, and look, we always did it. So we weren't among the state pollsters who kind of failed, I think, you know, kind of negligently to adjust by education at all.

We always adjust by education, but what we failed to notice in 2016 was there was an increasing gap between those with postgraduate degrees and those with BAs. They've always been both to pro-democratic group, but the gap in 2016 was abnormally large. A fixed to our polls,

which I just point out, weren't kind of, were actually standouts in the upper Midwest in terms of showing it as a close race, not clear of Clinton victories. We broke apart post-grads and grads, into two distinct categories, and that released kind of about a point and a half of unforced error in our polling for 2016. So that's fixed. We've used it to good effect. Again, this time around,

we weren't showing what all the other national polls were showing. We've had this between a four and six point national lead. Again, we'll get quickly into why national results don't matter, but you all know that all too well. Everyone knows that all too well. But we've had it kind of more narrow, and that plays out in the states that I mentioned. We had Florida tied, not a four-point Biden, five-point Biden, advantage elsewhere. But we'll see how it plays out in the Midwest. We also had Wisconsin, what was our final margin there? I think it was kind of nine and a half points,

not the 17 points that you saw from my former colleagues at the Washington Post and ABC News. So we've always had it a little bit tighter, but again, it plays how it's going to play out in these states. And so far, no surprises, but the night is early and I have a healthy dose of pulsars paranoia. Jamoff, I don't know if that answered your question well enough, but that was the main thing people did.

It's really helpful. but now take off your pollster, measure, you know, chief research officer hat for a second and put on just the American hat. What does it mean when, you know, we had effectively a repudiation of the establishment in 2016 and despite everything that's happened over the last four years, we may be on the brink of another repudiation again. If you, you know, where you're there to measure the pulse of what's going on, but less in sort of measurement speak and just more in just plain American English speak, John, what, like what's going on if this happens again?

See, you're absolutely right. There's something major. I would also like to caveat it. We are looking once again at if Trump wins, it's because of the electoral college. Like, he is going to lose the popular vote. There are still far more American and American voters who voted today and, you know, kind of over the past several weeks, who would prefer Joe Biden to be president. Again, we can't characterize with a broad brush the American voting population when this is about, you know, effectively, I hate to call it a quirk, but this is about our system of vote tallying. And the president, you know, to pull back your point about kind of there is something major here, the fact that many people, you know, some of us might be friends with can't understand why this isn't 100 to zero race, fail to understand that the president's base isn't small. It is, you know, we've had it 44 to 46% approving of his job performance for many years now. Like, he has a completely durable solid floor.

He also has a high ceiling, right? So he was never going to win the popular vote this time around, but he had a chance at that electoral, you know, squeaking out another electoral college win because he's been so stable. You know, this is a president who, you know, kind of, oh, Trump now had an NC. Thank you for the chat window. So I think you're right that we need to understand more about what is the component entry of that 45% that they would support Trump when the other 55% are so dead set against him and see it as something really wrong with the country. So we still have two-thirds of the country.

No, what have you guys done to, though, understand the people that are voting for Trump better because I think that they are protesting and they're protesting a lot. And I think that, you know, if we didn't listen to them in 16, I think it's almost criminal to not listen to them in 2020. So what are they, what are they saying? What are they rejecting or what is it that they want? Because at the end of the day, you know, I think his incompetence can't really be debated. Competence versus incompetence. I think what we can debate is he's a vessel. And in that, I think that it's incredibly important what's happening, irrespective of what happens today because we were supposed to walk into a landslide. We're not, as you said, we're going to be in a nail biter.

What are they using him as a vessel to communicate to everybody else? That's a really good question. Some of that will depend on a closer analysis of the surveys, ours, where we talk to more than a million voters and the exit polls that are being conducted by two separate organizations today. What are the storylines that come out of the election? One of the things that's being reported early is there's a much tighter Hispanic vote in Florida than many early polls predicted.

How will that play out as we start to get votes coming out in Texas? How is it being Arizona? Is Arizona looking positively for Biden and Mark Kelly in the Senate in Arizona? Is it really Hispanic votes that are driving some Trump's strength in these states? Or is it the obsession that the news media has had for the past four years around the kind of Trump middle-aged white male voter with less than college education who has been displaced by technological and industrial trends over the past 20 years? I think it's going to depend on what that voting coalition

looks like for Trump. And it's more diverse than I think we've been focusing on for four years. I think you're saying an incredibly important thing. I think that that was a ruse. And I've always thought that that was bullshit. It's not some undereducated rube that's running around voting for this guy. I think that there are people up and down the age spectrum, the socioeconomic spectrum. And this is what I mean by he has become a vessel for so many different messages. And I think we really have to start figuring out what the hell these messages actually mean because if Biden loses, to your point, maybe in Florida it's a repudiation of socialism. Okay.

But in Pennsylvania, it's going to be something else. In Michigan, it's going to be something else. In Ohio, it's going to be something else for him to keep winning, right? And I just don't think that there's a consistent idea. And it's very dismissive to say that I'm not saying you are, but I'm saying, you know, that idea that it was an out-of-work, X-factory work. you know, in rural Ohio that was protesting, this is going to be much bigger than that, because even if Biden wins the popular vote, until we figure out how to rebalance the electoral

college in a completely, you know, new way or just get rid of it altogether, we're going to have to live with understanding how some folks in these extremely pivotal states are pushing back. Are they pushing back on political correctness? You know, that's one thing that I've always thought. I think that there's a huge vote here against cancel culture. Cancel culture. So all of that stuff. Absolutely. Absolutely. And lockdowns. I think those are the underreported lockdowns are the, I think the biggest, one of the biggest drivers or no, go ahead, John. Go ahead. John. No, I was going to say one of the components here that we have to pay a lot of attention to gender, right? Kind of, you know, the storyline

for a long time. And we think about, you know, kind of Republican, Democratic politics is that, you know, when you talk about black voters and Hispanic voters, talking about them as if they're monoliths. What we have seen consistently over the course of the year is that Trump does much better among black men and Hispanic men than he does among black women and Latinas. And that is just kind of like, you know, whereas black women are 95, five,

if he nears 20% among black men, it blends into the 90s, the 90s, we've seen. Look, but these are measurements. These are measurements. I don't think they're telling you the, wise of anything. And I think for the wise, you have to go a lot deeper. I mean, first of all, let's talk about the lockdown issue. Can we just pull up that tweet, Nick? I mean, so this is what I said back in May. This was like months ago before the election even hit, you know, which is if the

woke left insists on permanent lockdowns, Trump will have an issue that supersedes the incompetence of COVID response. Because I think, you know, we all agree on that, which is whether our lives and livelihoods belonged to politicians to meet her out in drives and drabs as they see fit. And this was back when Elon was being shut out of his factory in Fremont. And then there was this hairdresser named Shelley Luther in Texas who was basically put on trial for opening up her hair salon. And the judge wanted her to grovel and beg for forgiveness. And this was the beginning of the rebellion over lockdowns.

And it was so obvious back then. that lockdowns weren't going to fly, they weren't sustainable, they were too politically unpopular, they weren't going to work. And by the way, if it was something a cause that the left agreed with, like a BLM rally or something like that, then you were allowed to do it. It was that whole standard around doing things that were essential. And so, you know, this insistence on lockdowns, even after the public had really repudiated them, I think was a major issue for Trump. And it was crazy to me that Biden was still insisting on lockdowns. You know, still, I mean, that is his official position.

I don't think it's the only reason why he's in trouble right now, but I think it's a big one. I think if he, if Trump reaches the blue wall again of Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, lockdowns is the biggest reason why, because those are three states that had extensive and still have extensive lockdown. It hurts. It hurts people. I'll hear, I'll read you a tweet. and I won't name who it's from. It's from a farmer in the Corn Belt who's well followed on Twitter. Believe it or not, there's a whole ag Twitter community. And he says, well, it's the day.

Does this country turn down the road to be like Venezuela, or do we continue on the road of capitalism? And he's had this acute feeling that he's kind of vocalized on Twitter for months now on how painful the lockdowns have been on him and his family and his business. and on the community. And it just feels like overreach to a lot of people that the recognition that, you know, the left might be using to justify the decision is just not there, that the impact, the near-term impact that folks are feeling is what's there.

And that's driving a lot of behavior right now. Boys, all markets are now up. Everything is green. Dow futures, S&P 500 futures, NASDAQ futures. Oil is up, gold is down. And there were some guys that made some heavy bets against the, dollar going into this, thinking we were going to have massive inflation with Biden policy coming up and some big fund managers that went really big on shorting the dollar this last week.

And the dollar is up right now. By the way, we should we should make sure at some point tonight to talk about these very important Senate races because it's not just Trump versus Biden. There's also a bunch of Senate races. Hicken Loeuber one in Colorado. Hicken Loeber one in Colorado. But there have been some, you know, some of the Republicans who look to be in big trouble like Lindsey Graham have pulled it out and have won. And so it's looking like the Senate

is still very much in play. I would say as big a favorite as Biden was, the Senate shifting from Republican and Democrat, I'd say that was considered as equally big a favorite. And that may not happen now. So we should make sure to talk about that at some point. North Carolina right now is 49.8% to 49% for Biden. 2.6 million versus 2.58. Ohio is at 2.4 to 2.2. 52% to 47% Trump is beating Biden. I have a question for John Cohen. John, let's go back to sort of your understanding as you've been measuring different trends. Have you measured people's sympathy towards lockdowns on a state-by-state level? And then second question is, have you measured? people's sympathy to cancel culture at a state-by-state level. And by the way, you're on mute.

So if you want to just take yourself off. Yeah. Thank you. We have not done anything on cancel culture. We've done a lot on the coronavirus. We've been tracking that actually in three countries since mid-February. And we have a state-by-state look. And what's interesting is we ask the question, like, is this primarily an economic issue or a primary health issue? And those two have been running neck and neck. But more people on average say it's a health issue. And you kind of more people on average, say it's a health issue than an economic one, with Trump supporters overwhelmingly say that the crisis is one that's financial, not health-related. So there's always been that, but it's been like a 45-55 gap there. So we've been measuring it state-by-state, but there's a

solid core of people. And it gets to David's point about why. What are they focused on? What is what is affecting them in their pocketbooks? It is the lockdowns and the kind of clamping down and what is this economic crisis, not a health care one, even though that's what we all say that they should follow. I mean, there was a, there was a fantastic line that the Democrats coined, which essentially said something to the tune,

Saksipu, you'll tell me if I get this wrong, but it was socialism for the rich and rugged individualism for the, for the rest of us is essentially sort of their grab bag phrase for, for this election cycle and sort of to frame a lot of policies. But when you have in these states, again, if we say this cuts along socioeconomic lines, but then maybe bleeds into college and even, you know, graduate-level educated folks.

Is there a vote here for rugged individualism and just leave me the fuck alone? There certainly could be. I want to go back to what David said about measuring versus the why. Because I mentioned gender to point out a big difference that we're seeing across racial groups, across the levels of education. But I'm, you know, we're polling every day. So you guys have the right why question? you know, send it to me, you know, send to Xander. We'll, we'll ask it. You know,

we pulled 9,000 people today on, you know, kind of their willingness to accept the results. And so we'll be putting that out, you know, tomorrow we have a, we'll have an exit poll running every day from here on, certainly until we get a result. So you have the question you want to ask, send along. We'll get you the data at the state level. All right, John, we very branch. Appreciate you coming on the pod. And we will be checking survey monkeys amazing data as we go. I'm going to switch now and just John, John, John, thank you. And Zander, thanks for doing for hooking that up.

Thanks, John. Thanks, guys. And we'll have some more besty guest. He's coming up, some fan favorites from the Twitter and the poker group. I just want to point out right now that it's very interesting to see that Fox has Biden at 129 electoral votes and Trump at 109. And some of the other networks have it much lower. How do the networks make these?

decisions of when to call a state because it's too early, according to many, to call Florida, but we're sitting here with a pretty clear understanding of where Florida is at. Does anybody have any thoughts on that? Well, I think they're erring on the side of extreme caution because of the strange year that it is and the fact that there is all this. We had over 100 million votes banked early through the mail or through early in-person voting. and nobody's sure how many more mail ballots. According to one side I looked at,

there were still 27 million ballots outstanding. Now, some of those are redundant ballots like David's father-in-law, who got three ballots in the mail in Pennsylvania. And a lot of those are probably going in the trash. But there could be another five to 10 million of those to come in that are postmarked by today. Many states will accept them after the election as long as they're postmarked by Election Day.

So they're probably being very, very careful that they don't make a premature call. Of course, they all have PTSD about what happened in 2000 when they first prematurely called Florida for Al Gore, then prematurely called it for George W. Bush, and we spent the next 37 days trying to figure out what the hell happened in Florida. So I think they're going to err on the side

of extreme caution across the board, although I feel like the margin in Florida at this point is insurmountable. It feels insurmountable now, right? Florida is over. Florida is over. it's about now it's about and it's about Ohio. By the way, the betting markets have just moved again big time.

So Donald Trump was at minus 600. Now he's minus 250 on Bavato. Phil, what do you think about that? Yeah, snapping back. I will say, let me address what Jason was talking about a few seconds ago and that's it, you know, basically Florida, even the New York Times

had them at 6 p.m. at 95% to go to Trump. At 95%, that was a New York Times site. my wife and I looked it up. And the betting odds had him at over 10 to 1. This was at 530. This was two hours ago. So, I mean, I just think there's a huge inefficiency with the way the- I think it was over as soon as the Miami-Dade dump showed that Biden only won the early vote by nine points. I mean, Hillary won it by 29 in 2016. And she lost the state. So how much of this do we think has to do with tax policy? People in Florida are retiring. we have the AOC gang.

We have Elizabeth Warren. It's his beloved state. He has a place. Okay. So hometown favorite Moralago. I get that. But you have so many retirees. And we have this bifurcation of how taxes should work in the United States.

So I just want to open that up for the entire group to discuss of art. Are we seeing old people? Are we seeing people who are concerned about taxes? because we have had a flight in the last couple of years of people from high tax states to low tax states. Is this about taxes? Do you think, let's start with you, Friedberg? No one wants to pay taxes. The fuck I mean, like, no one's going to raise their hand and say I want to pay taxes.

But I mean, there's a moment where taxes don't matter. Who doesn't think that? Well, but Romney, Romney was in favor of taxes. and he, you know, he didn't win any of these elections like the way that Trump looks like he's going to. I think that the traditional Republican messages, message of taxes is sort of necessary, but not sufficient. Trump obviously brought a whole set of issues that previous Republicans hadn't brought. And I think that you, I think you have to look at 2016 separately from 2020. And so starting with 2016, I think the big issue that Trump, that no Republican really had ever figured out, except maybe Pat Buchanan 20 years ago, was the trade issue with China.

You know, we forget that in the 19th century when the great Chinese economic reformer, Deng Xiaoping decided to open up the Chinese economy, the average Chinese was making $2 a day. And today, their economy is roughly the size of the U.S. Now, you know, what was the reason for that? well, we had a bipartisan consensus in this country for 30 or 40 years on the part of both Clintons and both Bushes that we should, you know, open them. We should welcome them with open arms and we opened up our market to Chinese products. We brought them into the World Trade Organization. But that was the start of, that was the killer app or the killer issue that Trump figured out. And that's what shattered the blue firewall in those Rust Belt states. I mean, if you're going to try and figure out going back 2016, why Trump won, you have to explain why he won Michigan.

So you're saying our jobs. They took our jobs. But what I'm saying is the manufacturing jobs went out and the fentanyl came in. I mean, that's his argument. And that was a killer argument. I mean, and the proof is in the pudding. It's the proof is that he won these states that Hillary thought were so in the bag that she didn't even bother to campaign there. That was the big surprise at 2020 and the issue of tax. taxes. Well, no, no, no, let me explain what's going on in 2020, in my opinion. Okay, this is not a partisan explanation. But I think that after the loss in 2016, look, in business, we know that when you lose, when you make a mistake, you make a bad investment or the company does something wrong, you analyze what you did wrong, right? And then you figure out what changes to make. The Democrat Party did not do that. What do they do? They blame Facebook. They blamed it on Russian interference. They never really. analyze why they lost these Rust Belt states and made changes. Instead, what they began was this hysterical denunciation of Trump. You had this sort of, you know, you sort of had this, this sort of, you know, media, culture, tech, industrial complex, who decided that Trump was an illegitimate president. And, you know, and so what they did is they went all in on impeachment. They went all in on this Russia stuff. And in the process, they created this enormous backlash. And I think that 2020, if 2016 was an economic repudiation of the elites, 2020 is a cultural repudiation of the elites.

That is the big issue in 2020. Yeah, I tend to, I tend to, I'm sympathetic to David's view. I don't completely agree with all of it. But just to build on something you said, I don't think, Jason, this has anything to do with taxes. I think that in Florida, the, if we, if we end up really getting to the bottom of what happened, I think there's a lot of people, older people that probably lived through some version of McCarthyism, and immigrants who actually fled really shitty totalitarian countries who are like, you want to do what here? And I think that there was a lot of people that basically are giving a very clear signal, which is, I'm a Democrat, but if you push me to the brink and talk about a socialized nanny

state. I'm going to vote Republican. So to David's point, to David's point, if there was an economic repudiation of sort of traditional globalism in 2016 and Donald Trump ends up carrying the day and today, then it's a repudiation of sort of these cultural manifestos and norms that we're swinging to. Now, the answer to that may be to say, change the electoral college because it doesn't represent the majority or the plurality of Americans. I hear that. But in the same way that, you know, we've said for years now that the Republicans will have to change to win the electoral college or to change to win what's evolving in terms of people's perceptions on social policy, it may actually be the Democrats that also have to change if this doesn't swing hard back in

Biden's favor. So, and Chamath, when you, when you make that statement, I think it was particularly prescient is the Democrats believed that because of the demographic shift from white Americans to people of color, Latinos, black Americans, that they were just going to win all of them. This is the problem with the stupidity of the establishment. This is the problem with the stupidity of the establishment. Like, if you take a thousand brown people and put us in a room, what I will tell you is, just in case, here's a fucking memo for all you white people out there. We're not all the goddamn same. Okay? And if you put a thousand black people,

here's the memo now for the Democrats and the Republicans. They're not all the same. You can take a thousand Hispanics, and it turns out they're not all the same. So maybe, you know, you can take a thousand straight people, a thousand gay people. We're not all the fucking same. So maybe what this means is that we've moved past color and now ideology and social policy and economic, and monetary and fiscal, all of these things, the totality of how a rational, well-developed person makes a decision, maybe that's at hand.

And before, if we historically only thought, you know, older white men and white women could do it, maybe now it actually applies independent of color and gender. Yeah, I absolutely agree with that. And I would add to that that if Trump's victory in 2016 laid waste to the Republican establishment, if he wins again tonight, it will lay waste to the Democratic. establishment. And the theory of the case that they've had for 20 years, the sort of share an emerging Democratic majority case that they just had to sit back and let demography become destiny and they could just graft an identity politics onto the same neoliberal economic agenda they've

been pushing since the late 1980s and it would all just somehow magically produce majority results in the country. They are going to have to go back to the drawing board. And I think get more populist themselves and come up with some kind of version of politics that is more in the burning mold it needs to be left but not woke isn't it going to be socialism it's it probably is going to be socialism but i mean that's like if you if you lay waste to the center you know you're like i mean that's basically what happened i'm going to the republicans and now if you're saying the same is going to happen with the democrats this time around you're going to have aOC running for president in four years.

She won't be the right brand, though, because she's woke. Guys, there's two things. You need a Sherrod Brown. You don't need AOC. We need a charismatic, democratic candidate. Somehow, Sherrod Brown keeps getting elected in increasingly Red Ohio as an old-school, gravely-voiced Irish Labor Democrat. And somehow Bernie ignited a movement as a very old-school, gravely-voiced Jewish Democrat,

neither of whom gave a damn about identity politics, really. They were principally concerned with inequality and income redistribution. I don't want to see that happen, but I think that's the only path forward for the Democrats. Hold on. Let me go to Phil because Phil had somebody wants to add there, and then we'll go to you too much. Yeah, I want to say that we needed for the Democrats, and they just needed, I think they needed a very, they needed a charismatic, powerful leader with a lot of charisma. I mean, I know that, you know, I was hanging out with one of the, Trump guys that was with him on the plane in the 2016 election. He said that, you know, he outworked Hillary. There's no doubt that he outworked Biden. I mean, this guy's going to seven rallies a day,

showing up with a ton of energy and he has, you know, like him or not, he has a lot of charisma. Also, I can't help but think that you're talking about repudiating. Sorry, I'm getting that word wrong. To me, this is all about, I think a lot of people are really scared of socialism. Okay. And I think it's just like even the young people that, you know, even the young people, you know, who say that they love it, they're looking at their path to the future. And with, and, you know, they can, they can still do great things. There's no doubt you can still be a 20 year old and make a billion dollars for the time you're 30 or 40. And I think with socialism, that goes away. I think that, look, I think if Trump does win, I don't think what it means is that you need a person that's at the extreme left to win.

I actually counterintuitively would say the opposite, which is that you need just a more credible centered person. Now, that may only be possible if the Democratic Party cleaves in two. and the reality is the Republicans may actually quasi-cleave in two, independent of whether Trump wins or not anyways. And we'll see, as David said, how some of these Senate seats break, because if that goes in a different direction, you know, for example, if Trump wins, but we have, you know, a Democratic tie in the Senate,

maybe that's not possible. But I think that would say a lot around the need for pragmatic but more youthful leadership. Okay, I want to go around the horn right now. What is your gut telling me who is going to win, given what we know right now? Everybody, give it a thought when you're ready, look into the camera, and I will call on you. Michael, you're looking into the camera. Who's going to win?

If you had to pick one right now, Michael, give us your best guest. Can you spot me the winner of the rebound in North Carolina? Because that would tell me a lot. But I increasingly think Trump is going to win. Okay. Phil, you're looking in the camera. Who do you think is going to win? We've seen this movie before, except that Hillary was actually five to one favorite last time.

And I watched these numbers go straight up and now I'm watching the same thing. It seems like, although I will say this, you know, Sacks has been posting some stuff within our channel about the numbers popping up and down. I'm getting texts. And they are popping up and down, but still the lowest I've seen is 2.5 to 1. I think Trump wins. Trump wins. Who do you got, Sacks? Well, I'm going to assume the betting markets know something.

I'm still a little bit unclear on North Carolina because I saw some tweets that Biden had wanted by a few thousand votes but the North Carolina website is showing that actually trumps ahead about like 70,000 votes. So I'm not sure who to believe. You got to pick one. Well, yeah, look, I'm going to go with what the bad markets are saying, which is Trump.

And I thought that he, I thought he had a much better shot than the polls were reflecting. And that's what it's looking like. What do you got for you, Berg? Donald Trump took on coronavirus for us. He killed it. He is our true leader. And he will prevail here in the United States of America tonight. At least the betting markets are telling me and the treasury markets and the S&P futures are telling me that Donald Trump's going to win.

But I do think that the fact that the fact that. this guy has never conceded defeat to anything in his life, gives him a huge leg up. And he, you know, he is like Steve Jobs. He warps reality. And he tells everyone, I am going to win. I have killed coronavirus. And it happens. Wait, like a Jedi night?

It's like a Jedi. Yeah. All right, Chavreau, four so far picking Trump at exactly 7.45 p.m. California time. Chimoth, who do you have at this? at this point if you had to shove your chips all in. I still think the path is, I think it's Biden,

and I have the advantage of some information, which is that they just announced breaking news. They aren't counting mail-in votes in Philadelphia tonight. And I am going with Biden. So we don't know Pennsylvania. tonight. So if it's down to a few thousand votes, Philly, I think, is going to break. I think you can count that as three or four hundred thousand votes. Oh, it should be, it should be 500,000. It should be 500,000. Well, then 500,000 would carry the state for Joe Biden. Yeah, they've counted

100,000. So I'm going to, I'm going to stick with Biden here because I think that that Philadelphia vote count is crucial. It turns out that it may come down to Philly. Which, by the way, way. What an incredibly poignant place for the election to be won and lost. The city of underdogs, the city of Rocky. I think we can safely say that Biden is going to win the popular vote and it might be like four points, five points, which means that there is a discrepancy between the popular vote and electoral college. We're going to hear a lot about that because I am going to go with Biden because my heart is going to be so broken. If this country picks this sociopath to run it for another four years after his absolute

failure to do even the most modest things to battle coronavirus and the strife he has caused between Americans and his personal style is so heartbreaking to me that I don't know that I can believe in America if they put this absolutely sociopathic person who has the least amount of character of any other human being, anybody on this call has ever met in their lives. It would be a complete, absolute utter disgrace if he makes it into office for a second term. Jason, what do you really existent? Sex. So you're going to respond to that, Seth? Well, look, I mean, the American people. Hold on. It's an existential threat to the entire planet and humanity and democracy across the world. If this country,

puts that maniac into office again for four goddamn fucking more years. I'll make a prediction. And that's my personal feeling. I can't, I don't care what the statistics stay right now. In my heart, I cannot give that man even a benefit of the doubt. If he wins. If he wins, is Fauci the first guy fired? Oh, I think you can count on it.

Fauci and Christopher Ray, the FBI director. And increasingly, maybe Bill Barr, too. And anybody else who has any shred of credibility or honor is gone. I want to just say to J-Cal, I really empathize with how you're feeling because I have never, as a person that has been a citizen of three countries, when I moved to America in 2000, I have never really, I mean, you know, edge cases, yeah, I've felt some racism here, obviously, you know, but I've never felt so unethical. unwanted. And I remember 2016, for the first time in my life, feeling a level of insecurity I had never felt before because I was so afraid I didn't know what it meant for Donald Trump to be elected. Four years later, you know, in so many ways, it's like two realms of a coin, you know. I leave my house and you can just see that there's just so much pain and

divisiveness. I come back into my little world and things seem to be really great. And that's a really, really terrible feeling to have, Jason. So I know exactly what you're talking about. I wanted to tell you guys, you know, I there was like a, I've always been sort of like, okay, Biden's going to win, Biden's going to win, Biden's going to win. And then there's a weird thing that I did and you guys can see it in the FEC filings, but I gave a million bucks this year in the elections, but I gave $750 to the Senate and I gave $250 to buy. And I didn't understand why I did it. And I explained it to Nat as she's like, why did you do it that way? And the best way that I could explain it is I think that there are so much I don't know about what is driving the vote for president that I wanted to make sure that,

you know, there are checks and balances. And the best check in balance was to, you know, make sure that there was actually some Senate check and balance on Biden, I mean on Trump. So, you know, I'm going to, Jason, I'm going to accept the result. I'm going to try to figure out what the fuck I don't know because this is yet another layer of, I clearly don't know what the hell is going on. But I can tell you pretty assuredly, guys, any result that's called tonight I think is going to be incomplete. because they're not going to call Pennsylvania because they're not going to call Philly.

And so if there are, in fact, three, no, I think the exact math is about 350,000 votes that show up in Philadelphia, a gap of 350,000 votes that show up in Philly. Biden will do what he needs to do. By the way, how many people live in Philly? Does anybody know? How many registered voters?

Friedberg, is that on the... Philly, there's supposed to be, it's supposed to be like half a million. votes coming in there and I think they've counted 100,000. I think it would be more than half a million. Usually the DIMS margin is about half a million. The margin. Yeah.

Philly is, I want to say, our fifth or sixth largest market. They've actually got it listed on the... It's a pretty significant population. On that link I sent you there, Nick. And then if you click on, click to view precincts reporting, you can see the... Sorry, it's tough to read. Yeah, I mean, we care about Allegheny. And then what else do we care about?

You care about Philly and you care about those immediate suburbs outside of Philly, like Box County and Chester County and there's four or five ringed suburbs of Philly that used to be the centerpiece of country club republicanism. The counties that elected Arlen Specter to the Senate. But over time, as the Republicans moved right, they moved more toward the Democrats. Michael, do you know why they're going to stop reporting mail-in ballots tonight? Why would they do that? Probably just to go home and sleep for a while before they pick it up tomorrow.

Pennsylvania, unfortunately, and Michigan as well are states that aren't allowed to start tabulating until all the polls are closed. That's why those states in the sunbelt, we were all looking for to be an early bellwether because- Look at that, guys. They can count. I believe. 4.8-1%. This is unbelievable. Unbelievable. What are we seeing here?

What's unbelievable, Chamonautical? So what that means, Jason, is that in Philadelphia, there are 1,706 precincts, okay? Of those, only 82 have reported their ballot tallies. So you have 95% of the precincts in Philly, not reporting. If you take Michael's framework and say there's a swing of 500,000 votes,

if it goes historically Democrat, as it has in the past, you attack on 500,000 net new votes to Biden, and he ekes out a win. Yeah, it goes blue probably in that scenario. So then it becomes about, remember, though, if Trump is holding, if he manages to hold Michigan, could lose Pennsylvania.

It wouldn't matter. He had a little bit of a margin. He had what he had, he had 306 electoral votes last time. So if he holds everything he had minus Pennsylvania. Actually, he could lose Michigan, too, as long as he carried Wisconsin. He has to have one of those two. But I think Wisconsin's difficult.

By the way, for all of our listeners and watchers in New Jersey, they legalize recreational pots. So go out and get yourself some. I just took four gummies after my little tirade there because the two Xanax weren't working. So that's going to get really strange for me in about an hour. Just to go back, the reason. I mean, are we going to crack a bottle of wine or what? I already got one.

This is mostly coffee, but trust me, there's some Irish whiskey in here, too. Michael, I guess I'm speaking to you, but it looks like I'm seeing reports of the sound of Arizona. Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Unfortunately, all four of those states are going to probably take at least a day. Arizona, three days, I think, to count. Maybe not this year because so much of the vote was early. Maybe it'll move faster, but they are notoriously slow counters. So settle in.

It could be the weekend before we have a result. Wow. Okay. So let me just drop this. If we don't know tonight, what is going to happen over the next week in America? We're going to be, we're going to need a lot of gummies, Jason. No, I mean, joking aside, there are people.

I think everybody's going to be tense, Jay. I don't, I don't think you're going to see a lot of action one way or the other. I think that people, I think people in America are incredibly good people. I think that folks are just going to sit tight and hope that the folks whose job it is to do their job, do their job. I hope you're right, Chimov. But when I see a group of trucks surrounding people's cars, when I see people bringing guns on both sides, horrible people on both sides, bringing guns, malicious style to specifically taunt each other, when you see people getting shot in the street, chasing each other down over politics, this is something that has not happened in our lifetime.

I mean, Phil's very old, so he kind of remembers the 60s. But for the rest of us, under 68. We have not witnessed Americans shooting each other in the street over politics. We have not witnessed people, taking people out of their lives because of politics. And this has got Trump's fingerprints on it from top to bottom. You mean since this summer? I mean, what about all the looting and rioting and protests? My point is, when Trump got in office, his character,

and his ability to trigger people, his ability to abuse people, his rhetoric, put everybody on tilt. I'm not saying people looting stores are correct. What I'm saying is George Bush and Ronald Reagan, your heroes, Bill Clinton, Obama, other people's heroes on this call. There was a kindness in our differences. And when people conceded, they conceded with grace. and this individual, this horrible human being. Bush wasn't a hero of mine, but

putting it aside. Yeah, I think Reagan was maybe Bush Sr. was. Yeah. Look, I respect him. He had a classiness and we had a mutual respect for each other that this deranged individual has removed from America. And I fear for what's going to happen in the next week. Because if people were shooting each other leading up to this,

I think the next week. to be incredibly violent. You are fake news. Thank you for that. You are fake dues. Now look, Jason, I'm not going to like disagree with you about any of that. The only thing I would add, though, is I do think that the media has been a co-equal partner in sewing this chaos and divisiveness.

Because, you know, we used to have a media that thought its job was objectivity and neutrality. Yes. And they ripped the Empire jersey off their back to go out. after this guy, Trump. And why do you think they did? Money. It's very profitable. Trump,

Trump has made big money. Picking aside is definitely more profitably, get more subscribers. It might also be that they were absolutely suffering from Trump to arrangement syndrome from the fact that the person lies and that he wants to separate children from their parents at the border.

Listen, yes, but they're supposed to, they have a job to do. They're supposed to be neutral. They're supposed to be a rational opposition to, Trump. Yeah, but exactly. But the reason why Trump is doing well or better is because the opposition to him is increasingly irrational. And people have voted for Trump to basically give the middle finger to the media who, you know, again, who are taking sides to these big tech sensors, you know, who don't want us to read things that are critical of Trump, you know, and so on down the line. I mean, I tweeted earlier. I mean, I, I tweeted earlier. Rich Lowry had a great post explaining why, if Trump was going to win, why, you know, why that would happen. And it's because he's the only middle finger available to these people.

And, you know, I don't disagree with you. He's not being, no one's voting for Trump because of his perceived integrity or integrity. It's the first time I've heard integrity in the same sentence as Trump. I'm agreeing with that point. I'm saying they're not voting for him because of that. They're not voting for him because of even a second term agenda. They're voting for him in order to stop cultural forces they don't like. I have two things to say. Decidedly, by the way. Two things to say.

According to the national political writer for the Philly Enquirer, Jonathan Tamari, his tweet of 7.35 p.m. said, actually it was even greater than we thought. There are still 2.2 million mail-in ballots to be counted in PA, about 87% of the total. So if that's true, then we have that and Philly, number one. The second thing I wanted to say is that if you actually look at the sum counts right now in Pennsylvania, it's 371, 591 votes that separate Trump and Biden.

Wow. So it's, you know, not. not that much, guys, if 2.2 million votes are outstanding. Yeah, but if it's, if it's, let's see, 60% or two-third, kind of to one-third slash 40%, and it's not, let's say, it comes in under that, right? They probably counted a couple hundred thousand already. I mean, it is still pretty close. Yeah.

Really close. Let me ask, Chmott, do you think that part of the reason we're seeing futures markets jump and the dollar jump and all the kind of obviously correlated assets moving the way they are is not necessarily because of a Trump win, but because the risk of a hung election seems to be coming out of the system right now. That it seems like we're going to have a much more clear outcome here than we thought we would. Florida is going to be much more clear. That's always a worry state. Georgia is going to be clear. Obviously, we've still got Pennsylvania. to kind of figure out here.

But it seems like this is going to break one way or another, whereas a lot of folks were concerned we'd end up in the court fighting overhanging Chad's for months, and there was concern in the markets for months about that. Do we think that's what I think is breaking up? No, I think that people were basically, look, there's a reason to be long Biden in the markets, which is essentially that there are certain sectors of the economy

that would have done very well. those sectors of the economy were probably slightly different than Trump's. Under a Trump regime, the reality is that corporate taxes, broadly speaking, are not going to go up. And so, you know, you can forecast higher earnings power for every stock. And so everything goes up. I think what's happening right now is more of that relief trade of maybe Trump was winning. So you could be kind of long, everything blindly. but the real canary in the coal mine was like if you looked at tech futures tech futures was just going bonkers when they thought he was going to win because they will probably disproportionately benefit of just having to pay no taxes because they pay no taxes today so so that's like kind of like what i what i think is happening on on that side i mean trump is very pro business that's why the markets are ripping right i think i don't know i mean i feel like there was a real concern like there was a non-zero case here call it a 30% case but

that we were going to get stuck for a few months with uncertainty and litigation about where this election was going to go. I think it's fair to say that we could still have that, David, because we don't, if this goes to tomorrow, I think it's fair to say that the game theory would tell you that tomorrow, whoever loses Pennsylvania should ask for an immediate recant. Right. Right. And I don't know what the process. They have to. I don't know what the process for that is.

If whoever loses Arizona should ask for an immediate recant. You know, whatever is possible under the law, I think both Biden and Trump will exercise because, let's face it, this is the highest stakes possible. And so you would hate to not if it's a margin of a few thousands of votes or tens of thousands of votes or even 100,000 votes and you're allowed to do a recount. So if that's the case tomorrow morning, if we go to bed in another hour and a half or if we finish this thing in another hour and there is no winner, clear winner, I think markets will be back to sort of. modestly risk off tomorrow. So, David, your thesis is that your thesis is a clear winner, the market's rip either way. I think, yeah, clear winner, it's just like there was a lot of grinding expected here that was going to cause a lot of, you know, trepidation and bouncing for a while that

folks were concerned about. And if you feel like you're going to have a clear election outcome or whether or not it gets litigated, if you feel clear about where it's going to go because it's 55, 45, you know, sure they're going to ask for a recount. It's good news for everybody. It makes sense. Look, I think the market does not want those Trump tax cuts repealed. Stocks just ripped after Trump passed those corporate tax cuts.

So if either Trump wins or the Republicans hold on to the Senate, then that would be a reason for the market to rip. It doesn't mean Trump has to win, but if we have divided government gridlocked. So between the two of you, the best possible scenario for the market is if Trump clearly wins. Okay. I think we have another bestie on the line. Is it the case? If we look at the Senate races, I don't know if anyone, I don't know if there's an easy way for us to pull this up. Go, go pull that up, David. And I just want to introduce our next bestie guesty, Brad Gersoner is here. Oh, yeah. Brad runs a multi-billion dollar. I believe you would call it a hedge fund or a fund.

Yeah. And he invests large swats of money in the American economy has a very big answer. Is he the best travel investor of all time, Jason Calcanus? he's up there, but certainly I would guess, Brad, with COVID and airlines being grounded, this has not been the easiest year for you. So apologies. No, Brad, Brad, Brad just made $10 billion on snowflake. He's fine. Snowflake made up for a really.

Brad, what's going on? Tell us what's going on. What do you know? Well, to listen to the rest of the podcast, search for All In with Chumath, Jason, Sacks, and Friedberg, available across all major podcasting platforms.