This Week in Startups - Balaji’s $1M Bitcoin bet, banking crisis update, OpenAI launches GPT-4, and Jay Trading! | E1702

Episode Date: March 20, 2023

Rachel Reporting joins Jason to read the news! First, they give an update on the banking crisis and how it’s impacting startups (1:34). Then, they cover Balaji’s huge Bitcoin bet and his predictions for the future (14:17) before breaking down OpenAI’s launch of GPT-4 (35:07). Finally, Jason wraps up with some Jay Trading updates (57:28)! (0:00) Jason kicks off the show (1:34) Banking crisis update & how it affects startups (10:11) Embroker - Use code TWIST to get an extra 10% off insurance at https://Embroker.com/twist (11:14) Best practices for banking (14:17) Balaji’s huge Bitcoin bet (22:18) LinkedIn Jobs - Post your first job for free at https://linkedin.com/twist  (23:42) Balaji’s predictions for the future (32:41) Ray Dalio’s The Changing World Order (33:46) CacheFly - Get 10 Terabyte free forever if you signup at http://twist.cachefly.com (35:07) A breakdown of OpenAI’s launch of GPT-4 (57:28) Jay Trade update FOLLOW Rachel: https://twitter.com/_rachelbraun FOLLOW Jason: https://linktr.ee/calacanis Subscribe to our YouTube to watch all full episodes: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCkkhmBWfS7pILYIk0izkc3A?sub_confirmation=1 FOUNDERS! Subscribe to the Founder University podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/founder-university/id1648407190

Hey, everybody, it's Monday, and we have an insane news day. I've been on the road. I was at South by Southwest. So so much news backed up about chat GPT, OpenAI, Bologis, big Bitcoin bet, the banking crisis, hyperinflation, so much macro stuff that I thought we would have producer Rachel sit in and read the news. And I would respond to it and give my insights. This is just an action-packed episode that includes three J-trades, two that occurred this morning and one that occurred on air. It's going to be a great show. So please stick with us. This week in Startups is brought to you by the Embroker Startup Insurance Program helps startup secure the most important types of insurance at a lower cost and with less hassle.

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That's twist.c-c-h-E-F-L-Y.com. All right, everybody. Let's get to the news. It's Monday. So much news, Rachel has backed up here. So welcome to the pod. Rachel will be reading the news. And what's in the news?

I know the banking crisis and Belagie's big Bitcoin bet are filling my Twitter feed, which is good. That's good that it's not me in my Twitter feed. David Sacks in my Twitter feed. So it's nice to see somebody else. But what's the latest? So there's been, like you said, there's just been a ton of crazy news over the weekend and into the morning. And the latest in the baking crisis is the Fed and Central Banks of the UK, Canada, Japan, Switzerland, and the EU announced a coordinated coalition to improve liquidity. And people on Twitter are speculating that this means a quantitative easing and money printing will resume stabilizing the markets along with potential rate cuts.

Yeah. So it's going to take coordination here. We have fractional banking, which means like we put our money in. They go do stuff with it and we can't get our money back because it's not like a bank vault or a stable coin. So this is what has to happen if there is a bank run or if people do not feel safe with their money in a fractional bank. And so quantitative easing, the government buying securities and some of this, you know, medium or long duration, bonds, treasuries, et cetera. And we need to get a full backstop going. And I saw UBS is going to acquire their big rival Credit Suisse. And each of these banks is a different story. For Silicon Valley Bank, it seemed like maybe they didn't have risk defined properly and they weren't managing risk properly for Credit Suisse. This is a different story. This is a different story. This is a different story. This is a lot of bank, it seemed like maybe they didn't have risk defined properly. This is. And they didn't have risk defined properly. This. This is a bank that's had multiple problems, turnover and management. And First Republic Bank, obviously, is the, you know, regional bank that's in play most.

They, I think they're trading out like $15 a share right now. And as I said, two weekends ago, as you probably know, Rachel, watching my Twitter, hey, we're seeing multiple bank runs occur in Silicon Valley. The first one was Silicon Valley Bank. Then people move their money to First Republic because that's considered analogous, right, in the community. Silicon Valley Bank First Republic These are just great banks

that give great service to founders and venture capitalists and when I say great service I don't mean they're doing anything Fugasey or corrupt they're just as I said in a now famous trending video like if you want a mortgage they're going to come and give you that white glove service

if you want venture debt they're going to come meet with you and they're going to consider your request so it's kind of that white glove service very personalized service you call you get a banker first republic actually known for that You have a personal banker there, even if you're a small company because they know the small companies grow into big ones.

And so I see there's a rescue plan for Versa Republic now. Yes. The Wall Street Journal reported that J.P. Morgan Chase CEO, Jamie Diamond, is leading discussions with CEOs of other major banks to help stabilize First Republic. Some quotes from the article include the discussions while preliminary have focused on how the industry could arrange for an investment that would boost the capital's bank according to people familiar with the matter. And by the way, like I said, this is from the Wall Street Journal. Among the options on the table, the people said, is an investment in First

Republic by the banks themselves. So we could actually see a couple of the top four U.S. banks investing in First Republic. And by the way, James Diamond is like the wolf of all wolves. He's involved. He's super serious. And that's probably good because he probably wants to make like a ton of money. Yeah. Well, these banks are now trading, the equity in them is incredibly low. I mean, maybe it's a three or four billion dollar company right now. And it needs tens of billions of dollars to backstop. So I think you would basically own that bank if you were to start investing in it. And this is going to have a big impact on startups. And what people don't understand is, startups can either do, you know, very basic banking with what's called a Neo bank, like a digital

bank, no storefront bank, and that's fine. You get your banking service. You can wire money. You can do payroll, or you can wire to a payroll service. And this is aside from the rails for doing payment, right? So if your startup has to do payments, you're probably using Stripe or AdJen, then you have banking services. So you can do payroll and, you know, put your money somewhere. Yeah. So what are you? Yeah. No, keep going. Keep going. About startups, I'm going to ask you. Yeah, startups really don't need much from a bank. Yeah. They just need to have it. be easy to use. Maybe on the margins, it's nice if you can get venture debt. Again, I don't

recommend venture debt until you have a CFO because CFOs know how to manage these things. And debt can get you in trouble real quick because you're basically raising part of your next round, then you're telling your next round investors, like say the Series B, you've got to pay for my Series B and then invest in the Series B. It's just not a good device unless you're at your Series D have predictable revenue and you're using that venture debt as like a way to build, I don't know, If it was CafeX, a way to build 10 machines that you have already sold, right? Which would be called factoring in some worlds, taking your purchase orders and factoring. In fact, there was a company, pipe.com that did that.

I think Stripe has a product. That'll pay you in advance of future earnings. But, you know, the ease at which you could work with First Republic Bank, the ease of which startups can work with Silicon Valley Bank is a true loss. There was, I saw lemon.io, also an advertiser on this program. And just for full disclosure, I have First Republic accounts. I have a Silicon Valley bank tiny mortgage at this office, in fact, from a couple years ago, but we're selling this office. They both have advertised on the podcast, Pipes advertised, Lemon.I.O. is advertised. I mean, everybody basically advertises on this product.

It's the number one startup podcast. So to say I'm conflicted, I mean, there's tiny little conflicts, but I don't have any exposure to them. but Lemon.io had an interesting tweet. He's based in Ukraine, and they help vet remote developers from Europe for American companies. In fact, I want to use it to build out the software around the syndicate.com. And the CEO had a series of tweets. Maybe you can recap those. Yeah, so they started on Sunday, March 12th, where he announced that Lemon.

dot I.O had all the funds deposited at SVP, which is not great. So his first tweet was, we are a Ukrainian startup that had all. all of our funds in SVP, whatever happens on Monday, we should be prepared to move forward with just $250,000 from FDIC. Please share this message. This will help bring new clients and keep operating to support the engineers and startups. We have 400 plus vetted engineers in Europe and LaDAM. Rates are 2,000 to 2.8,000 per week.

DME, if you were hiring, I'm happy to give 15% discount for the first four weeks of work. And then a day later, while trying to move their money to Chase, he tweeted about how Chase didn't really understand his marketplace business. Chase Banker could not understand, this is again, this is a tweet, Chase Banker could not understand Marketplace. So they filed that we do marketing, which is like completely off. They told me that. In fairness, it has like six of the same letters. Markets. I would say, like it has the word market in it. It does, yes. So great. And they told them, basically they told Alexander, the CEO, that they couldn't open the account unless they have a certificate of good standing. And then he completely threw these people off at Chase by saying. they're remote and they don't have an office. And finally, on March 17th, he tweeted that Chase decided to close their account because they were

fully remote without a physical office. And in a follow-up tweet, someone questioned why Alexander wouldn't just put his home address and to that he responded, he doesn't want to be public, which is pretty reasonable. And his lease doesn't allow it. And the new YC, CEO,

and friend of the pod, Gary Tan, actually retweeted the following tweet from are a gogosian, a startup founder who responded to Lemon.com's situation.

This is why founders were using SVB in case you all are wondering. Regular big banks have no idea how tech startups work.

For us, they wanted two years of profit and lost statements for a $5,000 credit card. We had 100 times that

in the corporate checking account, but they didn't care. So, yeah, I guess this is why startups love SVB so much. I've been

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And use the code twist so you get that 10% off. It's meaningful. Every dollar counts right now. we love you and broker. Thank you so much for supporting this podcast for so many years. Yeah, I mean, any bank that understands you, whether you're a farmer, there are regional banks that work with farmers, they understand the season, buying seeds, equipment. You know, so you're just basically starting on second base with every conversation. And so now what founders are doing and the best practice is put your money into one of the top three or four banks until this blows over. and then, you know, maybe a neobank or two, and they have great services to do this. But basically, you want to get into as many FDIC accounts as possible.

I'd say for seed stage and series A companies, you could literally put yourself in five bank accounts, a couple of money market accounts, split 250K into literally five to 10 accounts and have, you know, a million, two million dollars, FDIC insured. And if your payroll and your spending was under $250 a month, I guess you're, you're, you're, accounting function in your startup, whether outsourced or insourced, could probably manage it. It's a bit challenging.

I think the FD, ultimately what has to happen is FDIC limit just needs to be one million or two million. And then, then you would see, you know, I don't know if it's 80 per, and I haven't seen these statistics.

If somebody has a way to get me these statistics, producers at this week in startups.com, I'd be very interested in knowing how many accounts, business accounts in the United States, have under 250K in them. And I think a reasonable, you know,

multipliers, 3x or 4x. So let's just use the 4x one because it's easy for math. How many, because you can manage Rachel, four bank accounts,

pretty easily, right? Yeah. Or four money markets, etc. That would all be FDI and C, FDIC insured. Okay, so four times that number

would be what I would want to know. So how many people have $1 million, $2 million, $3 million in their bank account as businesses? Is that 10%, 20%, because we could probably

just by raising the FDIC limit make it so most people don't have to do this, splitting their money to five or ten accounts, to get some reasonable amount of protection. That seems like common sense. Of course, with all of this banking chaos, one is wondering, you know, again, for the impact for startups, what's going to happen in the market?

So for founders who are listening, when you have instability in the market, rich people, venture capitalist, H&I's high net worth individuals, they have to stop being optimistic. They have to stop being creative with their money and they have to retreat and be defensive, right? So they go from offensively deploying capital

to defensively protecting capital. That's the moment we're in. What does that mean? It means people are scared and people are in protect mode. That means they can't write that 25K check for your startup, right? So nine out of 10 angels,

four out of five, seed funds, whatever. They might be in defensive mode right now, trying to protect their existing portfolio, trying to protect their nest egg. And that's a shame. Now, friend of the pod, Bologi, if you don't follow him on Twitter,

he's B-A-L-A-J-I. He's been on this pod. He's been on All-in. He's spoken at my events. He's super smart. But he's also a crypto-maximalist. I don't think he's actually a Bitcoin Maximilist.

but he is a crypto. United States is in downfall, the Fed, you know, as some people might say, catastrophist, he might be a catastrophist, and he could be right. So just because you're a catastrophist does not mean you're wrong. You could see a catastrophe coming and accurately be a catastrophist as I was a week ago when I correctly saw the bankruns happening. And here we are, it has been a catastrophe that is being dealt with. So maybe you can fill us in on Bollah,

is how you pronounce it, Bologi's big Bitcoin bet. Yeah. So like you said, it's an insane bet between Bitcoin and the US dollar. And the bet is that Bitcoin will hit $1 million in 90 days by June 17th. And the bet all started like on Twitter, which has been really cool to watch in real time, where a username James Medlock tweeted the following on March 16th. All but anyone, $1 million that the U.S. does not enter hyperinflation. And Bology accepted the deal and it stipulated the term. over on Twitter. Under the proposed terms, if Bitcoin's price does not hit $1 million by June 17th,

James Metalloc will be winning $1 million worth of USDC and one Bitcoin. And for reference, Bitcoin is trading at about $28,000 right now. If Bitcoin does hit $1 million in 90 days, Bology can keep the one Bitcoin and the $1 million in USDC. And Jason, can you kind of explain this bet a little bit more for us? All right. So he's betting that Bitcoin will hit a million. dollars. And so it's at, and I think at the time he did this, maybe it was at 25. It's at 28K right now. So he's basically saying it's going to hit that by then. If not, you get a million dollars. And so why would you make a bet like this? Well, it trended, right? And what he's saying is there'll be hyperinflation and that everybody will run to Bitcoin as a safe haven. And if there's hyperinflation, your dollars

become worth less, et cetera. And so when you print up, when you print a lot of dollars, two or three times the amount, then you're going to have inflation. Everybody saw that coming during COVID. Remember, everybody was dropping money from the sky. You know, here, here's payroll, here's extended unemployment, here's stimulus checks, stimmy checks. All of that money dropped onto the economy was to save the economy when the economy was shut down because everybody had to quarantine in place. Obviously, that's over. People are getting back to work, but all that money still in the system has to be burnt off. But that's what caused inflation. Many people correctly predicted that. And then the Fed had to fight to stop inflation.

They said it would be transitory. Then they were wrong. Then they did this incredibly fast rate hikes, the fastest in history to try to correct this. So what Bolligy is saying here is there will be more inflation. And so inflation on inflation, I guess in his mind equals hyperinflation because now the banks have to be bailed out. So that's the bet he's making. Now, to think that Bitcoin would go from 25 to a million 40 times, right?

four times 25 is 100,000, 40 times 25K is a million. For him to be making that bet, you'd have to say, well, that's, that's not going to happen, right? In all likelihood, that would be a pretty violent run up and not really possible. So what I think he's doing here is, I would guess, Bology has a very large Bitcoin position. And there is nothing, by the way, illegal about this. There is nothing unethical about this. You can make a grandstanding bet. I would put this as a, you know, grandstanding bet.

So he has, let's say, a thousand Bitcoins. A thousand Bitcoin would be worth at $25,000, $25 million. That means if Bitcoin were to increase by 1%, that would be $250K,000, if it increased by 4%, that would be a million dollars. Yeah. If the price of Bitcoin goes up 4% because of his crazy bet and this, I'll call it a grandstanding bet, you know, like a trending bet, something that takes over Twitter.

He only needs to see Bitcoin go up 4% to cover the loss from the bet. Anything above 4% increase, he is profit for his Bitcoin holdings. Does that make sense? That does. And it's super, our producer chat is actually going insane

because as you're saying that percentage, Bitcoin's actually up even more than that. It's up 15% over the past five days. Okay, so let's pause on that. The 11% increase would all be profit for him. So he has made, if he, in this scenario, I don't know that he has this, but I would not be surprised if he has a thousand bitcoins and $25 million in Bitcoin. If it goes up 11%, we'll just round it to $10, that's $2.5 million, right? So he has made $2.5 million by losing the million dollar bet.

This would be as if I said, I will bet anybody, Uber will be worth $100 a share. It's trading in like $30 a share right now. Well, I would triple a very large base of Uber shares that I still own. And if I bet somebody a million dollars that would happen, I would make so many more tens of millions that I would be able to, you know, if it just went up to 60 or 70 or 80, I would make so much money that I could say to everybody,

I'm going to pay off that bet. It didn't hit a million. I lost the bet theoretically, but I won because I was betting my position. So what people have to understand is in a free society, two things can occur. People can place bets. People can talk about those bets.

and given social media, those bets can trend and create a dialogue. Now, when I told everybody, because this relates to the claim, the incorrect claim, that venture capitalist called the bank run by tweeting. Now, it's possible that certain venture capitalists did in fact cause a bank run on Silicon Valley Bank by telling their portfolio companies to leave. That certainly occurred on Wednesday of Thursday before Silicon Valley Bank was foreclosed on on Friday and there was $42 million was sent out and I think there was upwards of a hundred million billion dollars was asked to be reclaimed. So you could say that VCs caused that

bank run by telling all of their founders, hey, Silicon Valley banks got problems. It's been well documented for months and the CEO is saying, hey, there's not going to be a bank run or trust us on Wednesday night. Again, nothing illegal about doing that, but some people might be able to point blame FECs for that. You would be incorrectly pointing blame on it. You should be blaming the risk management team at Silicon Valley Bank for not managing risk. Now, here we are a week later. And on that Saturday night, many of us said, hey, there's a bank run occurring. We need to show this up. That was after Silicon Valley Bank was in receivership. So let's be clear, pulling a fire alarm because you see a fire is different than starting a fire. In this case,

is what we have to ask ethically, morally, I think, Rachel is, is Bologi, starting a bank run here on the U.S. dollar. And here's the truth. It's farcical to think that Bologi, as well spoken as he is, as popular as he is, is going to be able to take down the

U.S. dollar or America. And that he is the reason for this. We need people like Bollogy pointing out when America is doing things, or the Fed's doing things that, you know, he believes are, you know, possibly going to cause inflation. We need that backstop. Obviously, we need that backstop. Because the Fed

didn't understand. They said inflation was transitory. And SVB was not managing their money correctly, according to, you know, risk management theory. So he's well within his right to point this out. He's well within his right to place a bet. Now, you might not like it. It might feel opportunistic. The March to a billion users continues for LinkedIn. They have 875 million people using the platform. and with all of these recent layoffs in big tech, there are an amazing array of insanely talented people out there ready to join your team. The stakes are high. You need to make every single position in your company count.

Everybody has to pull their weight, and there are so many great people looking to find their next opportunity right now. Let's call it what it is. Let's be candid here on this week in startups. And I want you to get your first job posting for free at LinkedIn.com slash twist. That's all you need to know. LinkedIn.com slash twist, the best place. to hire somebody amazing. And if you've seen those purple hiring rings around people's profile

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you want to talk to faster post your job for free at LinkedIn.com slash twist that's LinkedIn.com slash twist to post your job for free terms and conditions do apply but you know this apology tweet where he responded to me early Monday morning I think

is you know I think one worth us you know just thinking about So maybe you could read that one. Yeah. So he responded to you after you kind of asked, like, how many Bitcoin does he have? And then he did point out that even if Bitcoin raises that 4%, he'll be able to pay off that sensational $1 million Bitcoin bet.

Yeah. And he responded, you still don't get it. The Fed is devaluing the dollar. It's what Dahlia predicted monetization of the debt. All the wars paid for in an orgy of printing dollars worth toilet paper on the other. end. This isn't about making money at all. It's about getting innocence to Bitcoin lifeboats before the Fed crashes the ship. And this isn't the only thing we saw from from him this weekend. We also saw him. He gave an in-person speech, which the speech wasn't circulated,

but his outfit was on Twitter. I don't know if you were able to see that, but basically he showed up in Jordan slides. Completely irrelevant if he's wearing shorts and What are the kids call flip-flops these days? Those are slides. Those are slides. Yeah, I'm cool with it. If you want to wear slides, I don't think he's any less intelligent for wearing slides. I know some brilliant people who wear slides and dress like they're going to the gym or like going to the pool at the four seasons.

I'm here for it. It's totally fine. Smart people can dress casual. That's just a dumb Twitter meme to be like, hey, trust a guy who's wearing slides and shorts. But the truth is, I mean, obviously I do get. at it. I understand that the Fed's printing a lot of money. Yeah. And I understand his bet. I think, I don't think it's an unreasonable bet, but, and I actually do believe that he is sincere. So I'll just say all those things. I believe it's, it's a fine bet to make. It's a reasonable

bet to make on Bitcoin in a time of depletion. I don't know if I would make it, but he certainly is allowed to. I believe he's allowed to pump the bet. And then I believe he's sincere that he thinks he's helping people. All of those things, I take him at his word. I literally take apology at his word. he's trying to help people. But I also think he should disclose how many Bitcoin he has, which is a little bit of a safety risk, but he should say I am over 20% of my networks in Bitcoin. So that would be a way for him to let people know,

disclaimer or transparency. I have 25% of my net worth in Bitcoin. Now, there is a little bit of a security thing for him to say his net worth or to say that he's got a lot of Bitcoin because then, you know, some Russian, you know, Chinese, you know, whoever, you know, like crazy, hackers could then try to hack him to get his Bitcoin. So I do think there is a little bit of security risk for him, but there's no security risk to say, I have a double digit percentage of

my net worth in Bitcoin. Just so you know, I have made my Bitcoin bet. I made my Bitcoin bets at $10,000, $20,000, any dollars above. That'd be a way to say it. I bought a lot of Bitcoin at an average price of $10,000. I'm in the black on Bitcoin. That would be really great, I think, if he did that. But I don't have any problem with it. And we actually need people placing bets. We need people discussing these issues because I actually think, if I'm being honest, that the Fed doesn't understand what's going on here or they're not doing a great job. And I think some of the banks are taking too much risk. And I think we have a broken system where they're making decisions on outdated data and they're overseering one way or the other. So they oversteered by printing too much money.

Then they ignored increasing the rates and they thought inflation was transitory. And now I think they're raising rates too fast and they should go out of slower pace. So I think like, and I'm not an expert on this, but it's pretty obvious that those three mistakes were made. Too much money was printed. They waited too long to raise rates and they got it wrong on inflation. And now they're going too fast. And going too fast breaks things. And what did it break?

It broke the banking system. And now we have to play cleanup. So I think going pausing or doing, you know, maybe less rates, let's raises and just saying, hey, for three months, we're going to just let things settle and assess, you know, what's happening. in the economy, but what I've learned over this year and a half, you know, as being an adult, living through my third boom bus cycle, and maybe having a lot more experience and a lot more time to consider these things and a lot more money to work in the system is that macro is very hard. I think there might only be micro in the world, which is to say, people make transactions based on their best interests, and then there are people who try to interpret those, the cumulative

nature of all of those, the cumulative output of all of those micro transactions to make macro predictions. And it's incredibly hard to make those macro predictions. Some things are obvious. If you raise rates, you know, it's going to cause inflation to go down. It's going to cause consumption to go down. But, you know, people are still trying to figure out what's going on with employment as well one thing. And they can't seem to figure it out. They're trying to figure out the real estate market. You're having a hard time figuring that out. So I think macro is hard. Is what have come to the conclusion. And Bology kind of, I think,

things similar to you in the way that, like, banks are not doing so hot right now, and they seem to be broken because although we weren't able to, like, hear anything that he was talking about during his discussion where he wore the slides. Some Twitter users posted some of his key topics, which included banks are insolvent in the U.S. Bitcoin is going to go to $1 million in 90 days. He converted 99% of his net worth to Bitcoin. Oh, there it is. Yeah.

which was tweeted. We can't confirm that, though. We weren't there. This is by crypto underscore McKenna and her profile picture or their profile picture is a statue. He also predicted that a U.S. Civil War is going to happen. Is this dramatic? Or are we had to... Yeah, I would say if you were looking at this and you wanted to say that there are venture capitalists who are catastrophists, if you were to use that word catastrophes, this would be truly catastrophizing. Most banks are insolvent and the U.S. Civil War is about to happen. Now, if you were to look at reality and say, well, what is Bologi's point here? If you were to steal man his argument, January 6th certainly look like a civil war to me, a microcosm of one, Trump being arrested

on Tuesday, tomorrow reportedly for the hush money payments in that case. Like, could that trigger some sort of civil war? I don't know. Like, like, civil. Civil War, the entire country goes to war. But it's certainly, there's division. So going from division to civil war, that's a big job. But you could see that the country is more divided now than it feels like it's been in our lifetime. BTC going to $1 million. That's him talking his book because he's 99% in BTC. Hyperinflation imminent. I don't know if hyperinflation is imminent. Some people believe deflation is going to happen because people are going to have no money to spend. So if people have run through, this is what smart people are telling me. People have run through their savings. consumers in the United States are in debt and people are kicking on austerity measures. As I've talked about like 2022 and 2023 being years of austerity, people are reducing their spend, you know, doing staycations, you know, not yoloing NFTs, etc. So, you know, he could be wrong on all of these counts. BTC might be trading for less than 90 days.

Most banks will be bailed out. Deflation could happen. and a U.S. Civil War will be averted because some new candidate comes out and says, let's stop fighting with each other. Let's balance the budget and solve these problems. I actually think I'll take the other side of this. I think most banks will be bailed out. I think BTC will be trading plus or minus 10% of where it is now. And let's just put a pit in this so that we can actually check back in 90 days. Producers put this on your calendar. I believe most banks will be bailed out. Two or three will be insolvent. BTC will be trading plus or minus 10% in 90 days. is, hyperflation will not happen. If anything, we'll see some deflation. And I believe

Bologi will convert from 99% of his net worth in BTC to a lower percentage. And I guarantee that a Civil War does not happen this year. All right. Well, we're going to have to come back

in 90 days and fact check. Put that on your calendar. We're going to make a graphic to make sure. We're like a little checkmark to make sure. I mean, people think I'm a catastrophe

because I use cap locks. And I was like, hey, guys, there's three bankroads happening. I see them all right here. I didn't predict. Civil War

I mean, come on Yeah But you know what He cashed his Also he cashed his ships out Right like he left for Singapore or somewhere I think is the report So I think I don't know if he gave up his U.S. citizenship

But I could see apology giving And I think he's a U.S. citizen So Somebody can correct me if I'm wrong there But I think he like is a Full on get out of the U.S. The U.S. is the U.S. empire is going to die Just like Freiburg's been talking about

a lot of people, this Dahlio book, keeps telling people like, hey, empires have a certain amount of time. And here's what empires look at like at the end. And for those of you haven't read the book, The Changing World Order Why Nations Succeeder Fowl. It's pretty sensationalistic, but it's well researched. And it, I think maybe, and I think Dahlio points this out, it's not as much of a catastrophe when one of these things,

one of these societies moves to the next, as producer Nick pointed out because you usually have like an orderly transition like the UK in the United Kingdom used to be the kingdom and then it was America and maybe America China and authoritarian country

becomes the dominant country but that doesn't mean America goes away just like the UK hasn't gone away it just means it's not number one anymore so we're going to have to come back in 90 days everybody has 90 days to read the changing world order

book club book and that's a good read It's a good read. Perfect. We'll catch you up on what everybody else is thinking and talking about. Okay, everybody, when it comes to the blocking and tackling of running a tech startup, you don't need to reinvent the wheel. We all know that.

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Twist listeners get 10 terabytes free forever if you sign up at twist.com. That's T-W-I-T. dot C-C-H-E-F-L-Y.com to get 10 terabytes for free forever. Twist.cashfly.com. Let's talk about chat, G-P-T.P-T. So much going to. on. OpenAI launched GPT4 last week, and it's definitely scaring some people, including the CEO, Sam Altman. And if you want to use GPT4 right now, you can only access it by signing up for ChatGPT Plus, which costs $20 a month. I am paying for it. I told everybody on my team they can go pay for it. I literally had the sales team. I had producer Nick do a explainer to a little demo of Chat GPT4, because we're doing this launch Angel Summit again.

This is where we get 100 angel investors to come together. We're going to do a live taping of all in at it. Should be great. And we play poker and a bunch of angels and seed funds get together, trade notes. And I was like, who would you get to sponsor a summit of angel investors and seed funds? And it was like, I would go for banking, including SVB, you know, Comerica, whatever. I would get law firms like Wilson-Sincini. I would get insurance providers like in broker.

I would get cloud providers like AWS and Azure. And literally, it gave me an answer of who to target as sponsors for the Angel Summit that included people who had previously sponsored the Angel Summit. And I was like, well, that is the SDR function. And in sales, we call that sales development rep, I think, is what it stands for. And those are people who warm up leads, right? So now you can use GPT4 and ask it, hey, who should sponsor this week in startups? Or I want to do an AI conference.

Who would be great speakers? And then you can think about what the topics would be at your AI conference. And all that stuff and that brainstorming that would have occurred in a meeting, Rachel, now could occur in GPT4. And you'll probably get 70, 80% of what would have happened in the meeting with five people. And if you had hired a producer for your conference, probably will do 70 or 80% of what the producer would have done or producers on this very podcast. So what does that mean?

It means you could have, instead of having three producers, you could have one maybe. Or maybe instead of three, you could have two or. right now, which doesn't take a genius to realize that when we are writing notes for this very podcast or sales executives or looking to find leads, you'll probably, that function will go away. And you could have one producer producing three times as much content or one salesperson reaching out to three times as many contacts for sales. In other words, human efficiency is about to three X. And you can see that with GitHub's pilot or other folks who are writing code. The code demos for GPT4 are extraordinary. Why is it extraordinary? Well, that corpus of programming

is a very tight corpus of very repetitive activities. What does it mean? It means if you were writing a modern app, you would have a login screen, you'd have a delete my account screen, you would have a change my password screen, you might have a feed like an Instagram or Twitter feed. You might have a GP turn on my GPS and tell me my location feed or a function. You might have a messaging function like, you know, DMs on Twitter or on Instagram. Well, those, that code's been written. It's open source and it's been indexed. And it's been indexed at a specific location GitHub. And it's got a lot of participants over there who have edited and there are open source projects. Therefore, something like a language model can really process that easily. Just like images have

already been processed for so many years, perhaps decades, that is very easy to say, hey, make me a Jedi, we know what a Jedi is, and then have them instead of using a lightsaber, have them use, I don't know, a crossbow or a bow and arrow. It could make that pretty easily because it's a corpus with images or code that is narrow and easy to iterate on and then do reinforcement learning on. So everybody will be three times more productive. Don't work producers are like their jobs are safe because I hear it's not like up to date with data past 2021. So until it gets that done, where everyone's in the clear. Some other jobs, though, that might be getting taken away or might be able to do something

else at their time were released by a research study with UPenn and Open Research. In the paper, they predicted what U.S. jobs will be impacted by LLM's language learning models like GPT. Yeah, it was really, really cool. and a Twitter user actually broke down the paper's major takeaways. Well, accounting for other generative models and complementary technologies are human estimates indicate that up to 49% of workers could have half or more of their tasks exposed to LLMs. So research suggests that half of all of U.S. jobs will be cut in half or made twice as efficient by LLM.

That's crazy. This makes total sense because I just explained it with developers, STRs and producers of podcasts, right? So what's going to happen is something like Angelist or Crunchbase or LinkedIn, like we'll have their own built-in LLMs, and you'll be able to say, instead of using advanced search on CrunchBase or LinkedIn, like people are currently doing to find startups that have raised their seed funding,

that are based in New York City, and that have founders who went to Stanford or in Ivy League School, right? Let's say that was your search. you could say, I want founders who are building startups at the seed stage in the Northeast that have at least one founder who went to an Ivy League school and that have had their, and have an app in the app store, right? Okay, really, that would be something you would put an associate on or a researcher, really, at a venture firm. Well, that research would probably take a week, maybe put 50 hours into it. That same research will be able to do this in one hour or two hours, right? And they're going to have to do prompts. They're going to have to clean. up the data and then over time they may not have to clean up the data. So maybe instead of a researcher doing it, an associate would do it, maybe instead of an associate doing it, a principal, a managing director, or even the general partner at a firm could do it. But that's something we've seen already over time and people are still thriving and we have record low unemployment.

So I'll take the other side of the bet, which is people will just be twice as efficient. We'll have twice as many products in the world solving twice as many problems and doing it for less money. Just like cloud computing meant and fractional CTOs outsourced HR, outsourced accounting, outsourced cloud computing, outsourced office space like we work, all of that didn't lower the number of startups, it increased the number of startups. And the amount of money it took to get a product to market went from being $3 million, 20 years ago, 25 years ago, it would take maybe two, three million dollars to get an internet product to market, then it went to 250, and then it went to 25K, and then it went to essentially free, just sweat equity.

The time it takes for the two founders to produce something. And so all of this is amazing, which is why I'll be candid here and put a little plug-in. It's why we started Founder.com, where we have 300 founders come, and for 12 weeks, we have them take all these courses, learn how to build companies, and at the end, we invest in 20 other companies, 25K, to be their friends and family round. there will be many more people trying to build software that solves a problem in the world. And that means if there was going to be a niche piece of software for tennis players or pickleball players, those might have not been venture backable previously, but now they will be because they're going to cost a fraction to make.

And you could make a really robust app instead of for $3 million a year, you know, 20 people working in an app company. You're going to be able to do it instead of 20 people working for a modern app company, working on all platforms, you'll be able to do with five people or 10 people, right? And then more flowers will grow. So I think nothing to worry about for now. For now,

there's another takeaway that high paying jobs are also having more exposure to LLMs and could be heavily impacted. So basically, the most exposed high paying jobs involve programming and writing, and those are really, really easy for LLMs to replicate.

And the least exposed high paying jobs involve science and critical thinking, and these are harder for LLMs to replicate. So if you're a high-paying VC that invests in life science companies and you need to use critical thinking, your job is safe. So shout out to Dave Friedberg there. But in the context of the paper, it defines exposure as, quote, a measure of whether access to GPT or GPT-powered systems

would reduce the time required for human to perform a specific DWA detailed work activity or complete a task by at least 50%. And then it included a chart that the researchers measured how much exposure different job types would likely have to LLMs. And there you can see a bunch of different jobs. Scroll down all the bottom. You'll even see like search marketing strategists, which would be super helpful for like our team.

So really cool chart to look at. Just so people understand this chart, when it says 100%, that means 50% of the job can be done by chat GPT or another language model. I think what this doesn't understand here where it says like, you know,

oh, this one is really exposed, accountants, auditors, news, analysts, reporters. That doesn't mean the job goes away. It just means the job

is going to be massively more efficient. And let me tell you something. There's things that journalists should be doing that they're not doing right now because they don't have enough time to report on stories, like calling the sources and checking the facts, like,

you know, maybe doing some analysis. So what this is going to do is, it's going to free up time for people to be better at their jobs. So right now you have a large number of journalists who just rewrite stories by other people. They don't do any primary research. They don't call anybody on the phone. They don't ask people for their opinions. They don't have time for analysis. They don't have time to fact check. Well, if GPT4 prepares a lot of information for them and then they just go right into fact checking of what GPT4 told it, that seems like a pretty good use

of time. And we have an analogy for this, Rachel. People said when the Wikipedia came out, well, then you didn't need journalists or you didn't need, you know, college students because they could just go to, or college students wouldn't be doing anything with their papers because they go to the page on China. They go to the page on semiconductors. They go to the page on Taiwan and get all the relevant facts. Well, all chat GPT is doing is doing that faster. It's going to all the relevant facts and giving it back to you and letting you hit a button that says make this easier to read. Make this like it's written for a five-year-old. Make this like it's written for a graduate student. You know, rewrite this. Say it.

in less words, say it more concisely, be more verbose, right? You've seen those tools where you can, in Notion or other pieces of software, change the copy that's written. Well, a human used to do that. And they used to collect the facts, cut and paste them from Wikipedia,

put them into a document and rewrite them. And I had to tell, you know, inside.com folks, I don't want you cutting and pasting, rewrite it. You can get the facts from other places, of course, cite the facts, and then rewrite it yourself.

Never use the cut and paste function. All right, well, that's over. So what can you do? You can call people on the phone. You can check fax. And you can spend more time doing higher level functions. So let's say you were writing something about Taiwan Semiconductor and the chance of China invading Taiwan and what the impact of that would be. Well, GPT4, you can't trust for that output right now.

But you could trust it to give you the basic copy to set up the story. Well, now you can call 10 people because you have the time. Let's say you had 10 hours to write the story. You can go call 10 people. for a half hour each, and then spend five hours doing original reporting. So that's what this is going to do.

I don't think people are going to just start laying people off at their company. I think they're going to do better work. So the sales team will be able to do three times as many leads, which means they should be able to sell three times as much. Yeah. That's what's going to happen, is wild efficiency. So this study, I think, is a little bit, to use a word,

catastrophizing. Well, we know that BuzzFeed is definitely going to be doing exactly what you said with their journalists, going to be writing things that maybe were a little bit more in depth because they announced that they were going to start doing their listicles, which I don't know if you've ever seen one of those where it's like the top five like best pool floaties of the year. They're super random. But those are going to be done by chat GPT. Excuse me, just GPT technology. So that's going to be interesting seeing like this one company pivot this early on. And last week on the day

GPT4 was launched. Open AI also did a live stream. and it featured the co-founder and president Greg Brockman, and it tested some of the features. There's like a 50-second clip that is pretty cool, where it takes like a photo. Yeah, let's play this. It's pretty neat. I have here a nice hand-drawn mock-up of a joke website.

So I'm just going to take up my phone, literally take a photo of this mock-up. All right, going to send it to our Discord, and now we wait. And so we can actually take now this output. So literally we just said to, to output the HTML from that picture. And here we go.

Actual working JavaScript filled in the jokes. For comparison, this was the original of our mock-up. And so there you go, going from hand-drawn beautiful art, if I do say so myself, to working website. And this is all just potential, right? You can see lots of different applications. We ourselves are still figuring out new ways to use this. So we're going to work with our partner.

We're going to scale it from there. But please be patient, because it's going to take us some time to really make this available for everyone. Yeah. I mean, is it impressive or is it not impressive? I remember when HTML Whizzywig editors came out, what you see is what you get,

and people were blown away when Apple came out with a word processor in the, you know, let's call it late 80s, 87, 80, 89, and you could then type something in and change the font and then print it on an Apple printer and have different fonts. Because up to that point,

you had dot matrix, you only had one font. and you were like, wait a second, you would have to hire a printing company to use different fonts. Now the fonts are built into your computer. Whoa, this is just an extension of that. He's using OCR, optical character recognition,

to whizzy wig. What you see is what you get, build a website, and then publish it. That's not, and write the code. It's not all that groundbreaking when you think about it. It's a collection of technologies building on top of it. What would be super impressive here is if it said, and then make 10 categories of jokes

that are the most, the 10 most popular categories of jokes, go figure that out yourself, dad jokes, you know, inappropriate jokes, uh, you know, mom jokes, dad jokes,

whatever, then publish those jokes, allow people to, uh, add their own jokes and then have a commenting system and a rating system and make it like Reddit. Now that would be like, whoa,

or if it just told you, hey, we built the website for you. Here are 10 more things you can add to this website. Would you like to add a voting system? Would you like to add a voting system? Would you like to add, comments, would you like to add a share button? Would you like to have it produce a daily joke every day?

Which, by the way, I bought the website, aday.com to do this exact business, which I was going to do subdomain joke. Dot a day, recipe dot a day. And now that actually AI exists, I could probably just build that with chat GPT and have it just come up with garbage and pollute the internet. And I think that's going to be the next thing here is the pollution of the internet. If you thought social media, polluted the internet and spam and content websites and people in Manila writing just horrible articles and doing keyword stuffing. Now imagine people just take chat chpT and tell it buy 10 domains a day,

build 100 websites a day, produce 1,000 articles a day, and then interlinked between them. The pollution on the internet, it's going to be absolutely like a fog of just garbage out there. It's going to be like, how do we know this is real? And this is where we're going to need to have credentials matter.

So every article, knowing a human wrote it versus a computer is going to become more and more important. And who the author. So I think authorship now in a world of pollution becomes more valuable. You can find a gazillion stories about tech or recipes. What's happening now, I think, Rachel, is those stories are going to pollute the internet so much that somebody who's authoritative like Gordon Ramsey or let's say CP from Knicks Fan TV or

just somebody, myself on seed investing, you on millennials and Gen Z culture, that authority and people who do substacks or do podcasts, they become more valuable because now the average customer is going to be like, wait, who can I trust? Who's a real human who actually is thinking about this and who actually has authority or has wisdom or experience?

So wisdom in a world of infinite garbage being produced for free, wisdom becomes the difference. Wisdom becomes the difference. So maybe you think biology, as we talked about in the first half of the show, is really smart. Well, now his intelligence or his catastrophizing, whichever, however you want to frame it, or both, it could be both, becomes more valuable. So all of this makes the actual elite people in the world more valuable. Because average is now infinite.

the average production of content, the average production of opinions is just a commodity. Sam Altman, the CEO and co-founder, was interviewed by ABC News reporter of Rebecca Jarvis on Friday. And he didn't talk about journalists very much, but he did talk about his biggest fears with OpenAI. And it's a pretty wild 60-second clip. We've got to be cautious here. And also, I think it doesn't work to do all this in a lab. You've got to get these products out into the world and make contact with reality, make our mistakes while the stakes are low. But all of that said, I think people should be happy that we're a little bit scared of this.

I think people should be happy. You're a little bit, yeah, of course. I think if I said I were not, you should either not trust me or be very unhappy I'm in this job. So what is the worst possible outcome? There's like a set of very bad outcomes. One thing I'm particularly worried about is that these models could be used for large-scale disinformation. I am worried that these systems, now that they're getting better at writing computer code,

could be used for offensive cyber attacks. And we're trying to talk about this. I think society needs time to adapt. And how confident are you that what you've built won't lead to those outcomes? Well, we'll adapt it. Also, I think the- You'll adapt it. as negative things occur?

For sure. For sure. Yeah. I think that is a reasonable thing to say. We're putting these tools out here. They can't really do too much harm right now. Play with them. Everybody has access to them.

And we have a dialogue about it. I think what Sam is saying is actually true. And I think they need to cite sources, say where they got the data from. And I think they need to get permission for the data they put into these algorithms. But I think they're going to get sued. if they haven't already had, they probably have a gazillion lawsuits like queued up. I think there has to be a massive amount of lawsuits here as well to say, did you use the Wikipedia without permission and without credit? Because Wikipedia requires,

even though you can use the Wikipedia day set, you need to cite it, I think. So they're fine with you using it commercially, but they want a citation. I believe that's their Creative Commons license. And then I think the same is true for open source. If you use open source, there's a, you know, you're allowed to use open source, but you have to reciprocate, by giving back your changes, and I think you have to do a citation. And then there's images and stuff like that that they're just wholesale stealing

or people's articles that they're stealing, websites without permission, and I think all of that has to be worked out. So I think they are in the, as for forgiveness, not permission, which is a tradition in Silicon Valley, whether it's Uber or Lyft going into a market or DoorDash,

or, you know, name the company that kind of puts product out there and then says, let's see what happens and we'll monitor it. I don't disagree with him on that. I do think they need to get ahead of citations and other people are doing citations.

To me, that matters a lot as a content creator. And I think as a society, we're going to get to the point, Rachel, where we actually say that if you produce content on the internet, and it's produced by, in part, by a language model, you're going to have to say, this was done by a language model.

I think disclosure of this is computer generating, versus what's real. Just like in a documentary, they tell you, hey, this isn't actually people's voices. This is a simulation, right?

This is a reenactment, rather. So the reason they do the reenactment is so they don't get sued on the back end. So if something's a reenactment and they're having characters do voiceover based on conversations that, you know,

may or may not actually be accurately transcribed, they say this is a reenactment based partially on facts. This is based on a true story, but not actually the true story. That analogy should come to articles. So BuzzFeed is going to do their listicles. It should say right at the top,

this is produced with chat GPT4 and this human, this actual, here's the byline of the human. This is the byline of the human who edited what the chat GP4 made. And you should link to who, it should link to the original chat GPT4 citation. Here's what chat CP4 gave me and here's where chat, here's where chat GPT4 got it from. That would be a nice,

regulate yourself. So you can either be regulated by the government and the law where you can kind of preemptively regulate yourself. That would be a nice way to regulate yourself, I think. And avoid that. I made a bunch of trades.

J. Trading's back. Let's see it. Okay. I see it. Some of the screenshots were shared in our producer chat and they're pretty. You kind of went off. I went off

yesterday and just while we're on the show, I made a trade. So as everybody knows, I've been J-trading, just trying to see if I can become a world-class public market investor. So I just took a little bit of money, put it into, and you can go to j-trading.com to see these trades. But I bought 350 shares of Microsoft based on chat GPT. I think that they're doing an incredible job executing and putting this into products, and they have product velocity. And I think these products matter. I'm going to make people more efficient, which is great for society.

So I bought some shares of Microsoft, about $94,000 worth. I also bought $100,000, a thousand shares of Google, Alphabet, because I think that they're going to come out with a series of product. That will be better than chat GPT4. I'll predict that, that their models will be better. I think that they have been conservative because they don't want to get sued back to move fast, break things. Microsoft is moving fast and breaking things because they're behind.

Google's conservative because they maybe are winning more, but now they have to change their position. So Microsoft and Google, I believe, will be the two biggest win. in AI. I also think Tesla will be as well, but I don't trade Tesla shares because I'm friends with the owner. And that could lead to down. Everybody always asked me that question. Why don't you trade Tesla? It's like, well, if you're good friends with the owner, that could cost problems. Like people would assume that I'm trading on some information that I'm not. So I just rather not trade it, although my heart would say that they're probably going to be in the top three

AI companies in the world, especially with their robot. So I'm kind of bummed that I don't trade but, you know, that's why. And then here's my third trade. Amazon, I just bought another 500 shares of Amazon. Amazon's been like one of my worst trades to date, but I saw Andy Jassy is laying off 9,000 people. So this is my standard. If the founder, or I'm sorry, if the CEO or founder is laying people off,

that means they want the stock price to go up. Therefore, it's a good trade. And this is a cynical, cynical trade. I'm not proud of it, but... I bought Facebook at 94 when Zuckerberg announced his first layoff. And I think that one worked out really well. It might be my best J-trade, I think. And if people want to check these out, they can go to-

Just jatrating.com. I bought the domain named J-trading. Ooh, that's awesome. And I don't know if these latest trades have been put in there yet. I don't think they have not, but they'll be in later today. And right now, according to the website, I don't know if this formula is correct right now. I am up 12 basis points and the S&P 500 is down 2.27%.

So if I put it in an index fund, I would have lost 2%, and I'm just over 10 basis points. Yeah, right now my Facebook trade is at 107%. Netflix, I'm up 12%. Adobe, I'm up 22%, Apple 4%, Uber 3.6%, Shopify, 19%, Taiwan 7,6%. Worse trade in the portfolio, Stitch Fix, down 202%. 21, Amazon down 16, Disney down 15, Warner Brothers down 12, Robin Hood down 14, and Twilio down 15. But I stand by those trades. Those trades being off 15% is fine with me. I'm doing this for it with a 10-year outlook.

But I will rebalance this. Nick, I want to do like a J-trading quarterly show where we look at the trades and then we decide to take out the two weakest maybe and double down on the one or two best as like a kind of device. But do not, this is non-investment advice, Rachel. I have never actively traded stocks. It's the first time in my life I'm actively trading stocks. And to say it's active. Just educational. It's just for educational purposes. This is inactive.

Active would be every day I look at it and make adjustments. I'm making no adjustments. I'm only long. I don't even have short positions. Brad Gersonerner was like, you got to add some short positions here. I'm like, I've never shorted a stock. I don't know how to do it. I don't know why I would do it.

He's like, well, if you're long one and then you think this is the loser, you put on a pair trade. I'm like, you know what? I just want to be long. I don't want to be short stuff. I just want to pick things that I think 10 years from now will be better. But maybe I need to add some pair trading and some options here, which means I think I need to really spend more time doing it.

Anyway, this has been a great show. Great job, Rachel, helping out with the news reading for everybody who's in the live chat. Rachel, you got to jump, yeah? Yes, all right. Bye. Thanks, guys. You're dismissed. Salute to Rachel.

Everybody give five stars to Rachel for her. coming in and reading the news. Great job. Good to have Rachel in the fold. How do you think she did everybody? Ooh, I like her. Great. Rachel was fantastic. 12 of 10 for Rachel. Rachel gets six stars. Wow. People love Rachel. I, you know, I had a feeling. Yeah, and I'm not going to compare her to Molly or whatever, but I think they're both great. And for folks wondering what happen with Molly. We tried to have Molly sort of do three days a week here because I'm moving the show from six days a week to four because I need to recapture some of my time. I'm going to be working on a reality TV show, it looks like, and doing seven days a week of podcasting was

just too exhausting for me. And yeah, I won't get too much into the Molly details other than to say still remain a great fan of hers, wanted her to continue. made her what I thought was an incredibly generous offer to be co-hosts two, three days a week, but she declined. And hopefully she could be on the show in the future, or maybe even sitting for me when I'm not around. But yeah, she's awesome. And I hope she finds a great, I think she'll probably announce some great gig shortly. So I'm looking forward to that. And she has my hundreds percent support for life. Okay. So I told everybody I'd take a question from Tobias. Jason, do you think more startups will be destroyed by ChatGPT and products like it than created by it?

Great question. I do think chat, I think language learning models, advanced ones, are on the cusp of eliminating the bottom third of information work in the world, maybe the bottom half. So I think within the next five years, the bottom half of information work will be done by language learning models. Just like 80% of driving right now can be done very safely highway driving by autopilot, you know, and full self-driving. And then it just depends on us getting comfortable with deploying that. So how many people have cars that have full self-driving that can do adaptive cruise control and lane control on the highway. I would much rather right now drive on a highway. If you told me I could pay, you know, uh, $10 per hundred miles to drive on a highway that only had cars with full self driving, you know, which is adaptive cruise control and lane control, let's say, I would pay that.

I would pay a premium. So I would pay 30 bucks every time I went to Tahoe or did a 300 mile drive to L.A., I would pay that 30 bucks to go the 300 miles to L.A. in a separate highway only with those cars. And then that would subsidize everybody having one of those cars or retrofitting cars to have it. Why would I do that? Because the safety would be unbelievable? Now, would I do that on the streets of San Francisco?

Would I do it on the back roads of Lake Tahoe? No, I don't think the technology is perfected there. I think there's a lot of random things that could occur like snow. ice lines, those highways are just not maintained properly, where those roads are not maintained to the way highways are. So let's take that same analogy to language models. Would I want to just read an article right now on an important issue, like trading a stock on quarterly reports, or would I want a human to do it? I would want a human to do the quarterly report thing. Now, would I take an article right now on how to

ideas for a 10-year-old's birthday party? Sure. Like, what's the downside? Give me 10 ideas for a 10-year-old's party. Give me 10 jokes. There's no harm. If I read the jokes and they're bad dad jokes and two are good and eight are terrible and don't make sense, I'll just take the two.

If I get 10 ideas on what to do it for a 10-year-old's birthday, fantastic. I take the 10 ideas. Two of them were great. Oh, do a pirate ship thing. oh, go to the beach and hire somebody to collect shells and put nets out and identify fish. Oh, it sounds like a great idea for a party, a birthday party. Great. I can then evaluate it from there.

But I wouldn't take stock advice on should I j-trade Amazon at this point? Because as we've seen, probably not a great idea. So they have it, folks. That is what I believe will happen. And then I think, yeah, I think the bottom half of startups or bottom third of startups won't be necessary because language models would do that. But I think those same founders will find something else to do, the next higher level thing. So if in the example of the birthday parties, well, okay, here's the 10 birthday party ideas,

two of them are good. There'll be a startup that will be a marketplace of people who could throw birthday parties, event planners, et cetera. And they will be even better parties because they'll have more creative ideas and they'll come together quicker for a lower price, just as one example. example.