This Week in Startups - Gas Stations in Space and Carried Interest on the Chopping Block | E2082
Episode Date: February 8, 2025This Week in Startups is brought to you by…Squarespace. Use offer code TWIST to save 10% off your first purchase of a website or domain athttps://www.Squarespace.com/TWISTAtlassian. Head tohttps://w...ww.atlassian.com/software/startups to see if you qualify for 50 free seats for 12 months.AdQuick. Visithttps://adquick.com/twist and mention TWIST to get $1000 off your first campaign.Today’s show: Jason and Alex discuss the carried interest tax loophole being in Trump’s crosshairs, a great interview with Orbit Fab and their plans for the industrialization of space, Deel’s $300M secondary and much more!Timestamps:(0:00) Episode Teaser(1:30) Introduction and welcome(2:40) AI startups reaching revenue milestones(9:00) Impact of carried interest tax changes(10:01) Squarespace. Use offer code TWIST to save 10% off your first purchase of a website or domain athttps://www.Squarespace.com/TWIST(11:25) Would ending the carried interest tax loophole hurt startup investing?(19:17) Atlassian. Head tohttps://www.atlassian.com/software/startups to see if you qualify for 50 free seats for 12 months.(21:18) Introduction of OrbitFab's CEO, Daniel Faber(22:24) OrbitFab's market position, fuel standards, and customer adoption(27:14) Financial and logistical aspects of satellite refueling(29:27) AdQuick. Visithttps://adquick.com/twist and mention TWIST to get $1000 off your first campaign.(31:03) Technical challenges in space operations and future applications(34:16) Raising capital and company growth in space startups(38:58) Community updates and secondary transactions in the market(49:32) CapBase acquisition by Deal(50:37) UAE-France data center collaboration and energy strategy(54:34) European AI and nuclear advancements(57:14) US tech employment trends and Meta's layoffs(1:00:51) Opportunities for founders and startup support resourcesSubscribe to the TWiST500 newsletter:https://ticker.thisweekinstartups.comCheck out the TWIST500:https://www.twist500.comSubscribe to This Week in Startups on Apple:https://rb.gy/v19fcpFollow Orbit Fab:X:https://x.com/OrbitFabLinkedIn:https://www.linkedin.com/company/orbitfab/Follow Daniel:X:https://x.com/_DanielFaber_LinkedIn:https://www.linkedin.com/in/danielfaber/Follow Alex:X:https://x.com/alexLinkedIn:https://www.linkedin.com/in/alexwilhelmFollow Jason:X:https://twitter.com/JasonLinkedIn:https://www.linkedin.com/in/jasoncalacanisThank you to our partners:(10:01) Squarespace. Use offer code TWIST to save 10% off your first purchase of a website or domain athttps://www.Squarespace.com/TWIST(19:17) Atlassian. Head tohttps://www.atlassian.com/software/startups to see if you qualify for 50 free seats for 12 months.(29:27) AdQuick. Visithttps://adquick.com/twist and mention TWIST to get $1000 off your first campaign.Great TWIST interviews:Will Guidara,Eoghan McCabe,Steve Huffman,Brian Chesky,Bob Moesta,Aaron Levie,Sophia Amoruso,Reid Hoffman,Frank Slootman,Billy McFarlandCheck out Jason’s suite of newsletters:https://substack.com/@calacanisFollow TWiST:Twitter:https://twitter.com/TWiStartupsYouTube:https://www.youtube.com/thisweekinInstagram:https://www.instagram.com/thisweekinstartupsTikTok:https://www.tiktok.com/@thisweekinstartupsSubstack:https://twistartups.substack.comSubscribe to the Founder University Podcast:https://www.youtube.com/@founderuniversity1916
Transcript
Discussion (0)
If they put a $150 million check in, Mubadala and General Catalyst each, let's say they split it.
Sure.
That would be a very big check size.
You can't put that into Series A.
That's 10 Series A's, you know, or 20 Series A's.
That's 50 seed rounds.
Well, you might be able to put into an AI Series A, but any other normal non-AI Foundation model company series A is going to be much smaller than that.
Well, valuation coupels aside.
By the way, just so I'll end on this.
It's a really good sign that secondary is happening.
because secondary doesn't happen
if the valuation doesn't make sense
and there's a clear path to the next milestones.
So congratulations to the deal team
and to the early investors who gets them liquidity.
This weekend Startups is brought to you by
Squarespace.
Turn your idea into a new website.
Go to Squarespace.com slash Twist for a free trial.
When you're ready to launch,
use offer code Twist to save 10% off your first purchase
of a website or domain.
Atlassian.
From MBP to IPO, Atlassian for startups
to provide your team the right tools to plan, track, and collaborate on work.
Head to atlasian.com slash software slash startups to see if you qualify for 50 free seats for 12 months.
And AdQuick.
If most of your advertising dollars are going to digital ads, it's time to diversify.
Out-of-home advertising like billboards offers low-cost, high-value reach.
AdQuick makes it easy to plan, buy, and measure all in one place.
Visit adquick.com slash twist and mention Twist to get $1,000 off your first campaign.
All right, everybody, welcome back to this week in startups. We've been doing this for over 2,000 episodes. I am Jason Calacanis. I invested in 100 companies a year. With me is Alex Wilhelm. You know him from his tech crunch, crunch base, Matterport, all kinds of different journalistic and database experiences covering business, startup, finance, IPOs, all that good stuff and technology. Of course, we're here three days a week, Monday, Wednesday, Friday. Subscribe on YouTube. You get to see us do it live around.
noon, Texas time, 10 a.m. Pacific, 1 p.m. East. We'll go live and we do about 20% more show
if you come live and join the Notie Gang. The Noti Gang is the Notification Gang, N-O-T-I, notification gang.
To join the notification gang, follow at Jason, follow at Alex, follow at TWI Startups on X,
formerly known as Twitter, or just go to YouTube, type in This Week in Startups, hit subscribe,
and then put all alerts on. You want all alerts, and you get to hang with us, and we take
messages from the live audience. You can read the docket anytime this week in startups.com
slash docket. And let's get right to work here, Alex. There's just so much on the docket.
We should just go right into the first news story. I want to start with a chart that blew my mind.
So we've talked a lot about startups being high growth companies. Very important to get out
there, triple, triple, double, double, whatever your favorite metric is. Then there came the
AI era. And we have seen, I think, Jason, a rapid acceleration in how cool.
quickly startups reach major revenue milestones.
And this chart was shared by Aaron Levy from Box and everyone's favorite technology person
showing how fast cursor the AI coding assistant grew to 100 million ARR.
And this is not a...
Two years.
Two years.
Two years.
Two.
Wow.
And it looks like after year one, it was at maybe 30.
so $100 million in 24 months,
that's $4 million of ARR added a month on average.
That is mind-blowing.
Mind-blowing.
And keep in mind that when we think about other companies
that I've grown very quickly,
like DocuSign was a huge venture win.
It went public.
It did quite well.
It took over 10 years to reach 100 million in ARR.
Now we are seeing with WIS and Deal and Together AI.
I just think that now companies,
are growing faster. So the outliers are better than they were before, Jason.
So the question is why, right? Is that the question? Why? I mean, in a lot of these cases,
the answer is just AI is resonating with the market. But I wonder if just software is now
bigger than it was back in the day. And so there's more TAM to attack. So that helps companies
grow. Yes and no. I mean, when you look at that chart, DocuSign is something that a company
signs up for and you change the process of signing documents from the physical world to the
digital world.
Seems like that is something that takes time.
With a co-pilot, it sounds like an individual can just sign up.
Which at GPT, an individual can just sign up.
And that individual gets massive value.
And the price point is so low that these things seem to be SaaS companies that are growing
like consumer companies.
And that was always the dream.
dream of Silicon Valley and venture capitalists. Sat, predictable, reoccurring revenue paid for by
the person who uses a software. Consumer, typically, Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, Twitter,
4Square, you know, pick your viral, Yelp app or product or service. They would grow 5% a week,
week over week, you know, every 12 weeks, they double in size. But it was a free product. So,
This is free products growing violently, I'm sorry, paid product growing like free products did.
It's absolutely astounding.
I wonder how many people work at Cursor.
It's any sphere that makes Cursor, right?
Any sphere has between 11 and 50 employees, which is to say, call it 25.
That's 4 million in AARPs.
I think Cursor's going to be okay.
$4 million in ARR per employee.
At the middle of their employee range, yeah.
Yeah.
So if that is the case, that would be one of the highest per revenue companies of all
time.
If you were to look at a company, you know, a Google, a Facebook, etc., they were typically
at $1 to $2 million in revenue per employee.
So, you know, a million dollars per employee, every thousand employees, a billion dollars,
100 billion in revenue, 100,000 employees.
You can kind of start to do the math here.
Yeah, just extraordinary.
I'm blown away by it.
I'm still very curious about churn long term.
And also what happens when these products become a little bit more commodified,
like we talked about with self-driving.
But no matter what, no caveats needed,
growing that faster 100 million error, mind-blowing.
So I'm very excited about it.
What is the product cost?
I think it's a consumer style thing,
but I'll pull it up for us just so we had it.
it's $25 a month, $199 if you pay for the year.
So cursor pricing is the other way to sort of understand exactly how many customers they have
because acquiring a customer takes money or a high net promoter score.
So you either have to pay for them, expose them through paid ads, or you can have earned
media, which would be getting a tech crunch story, et cetera, or being here on this weekend
startups. And then the third possibility is virality. High net promoter score. When you see that question
in a survey on a website or a product, how likely are you to recommend cursor, how likely you recommend
this weekend startups to a friend on a scale of one to 10? If you get a nine or a 10, that means you're
an advocate, you're a promoter, you're somebody who talks about the product to the public. If you get
six and under, you're a detractor. Seven and eight, you're indebtor. You're indebtor. You're indebtor. You're in
different. In other words, you're not going to say something bad about the product. You're not
going to say something great about the product. And net promoter score for founders who are listening
is a way to determine that. Cursor must have an extremely high net promoter score from customers,
or they would have, or they've spent an enormous amount of money and got an enormous amount
of press. I suspect they've gotten a lot of press, and it's a killer product. And people
tell the developer on their team in their Slack, you know, or in their Discord, hey, you got
to try this. Well, so the pricing is
20 bucks a month for pro or 40 bucks a month
per business user. If you're paying a developer,
that's de minimis. So why not at least try it out?
Yeah, 500 employee is nothing
compared to what these things provide.
If you're paying 500 per employee per year
and you make an employee 1% more efficient
and they cost 100,000 for a developer
on average around the world,
I think you can do the math there.
You've doubled your money.
So, and these things definitely make you more than 1%.
Absolutely.
So, I mean, on one hand, I wonder if prices will come down as there's more competition,
models get commodified.
On the other hand, there's so much value being provided, you almost wanted to charge more.
But anyways, cursors doing well, AI is doing well.
Big news, though, Jason, that will impact everyone in the venture and startup worlds,
which is that it does seem that a favored tax treatment is coming to an end.
And you had some relatively clear words about this.
You tweeted out, quote, getting rid of carried interest exemption is going to
result in a lot less investing in startup. Startups, a huge mistake to take away that incentive.
And the news, of course, here is that Trump has floated a plan to get rid of the carried interest
tax loophole, as it's often called. You were more negative than I expected here, Jason. So talk
me through how you're feeling. So I don't mind paying extra taxes, to be clear, but I saw Jason
Lempkin from Saster was tweeting, and actually he had taken that screenshot. I mean, I think
explaining the carried interest loophole, which means if you have a carried interest, you get 20%
of the gains in your venture firm. Should that be capital gains, as in like a share of a company
increased in value and you got that share because you're getting the carry? Or should it be
income like a salary? SquareSpace makes stunning professional websites ridiculously easy. It doesn't matter
if you're just selling a product or a service.
Maybe you're just sharing your ideas.
Maybe you're an artist.
Maybe you're a consultant.
Squarespace is going to give you all the tools to make this happen.
And as you know, Squarespace is always adding cutting edge features.
This is why I've been using it for over a decade.
And Squarespace is actually the longest running partner here on this week in service
because every time I need a new feature, Squarespace adds it.
And the new AI tools are unbelievable.
They have one called Design Intelligence.
It's like having a world-class designer.
sitting next to you in your office and you just answer a couple of questions and their AI
build you a fully customized site that's perfect for your brand that's unique to you and it does
it in just minutes personalized layouts on brand visuals premium content it's all ready to go so
start your year off strong at squarespace.com slash twist for a free trial and when you're ready to
launch go to squarespace.com slash twist to get 10% off your first website or domain purchase
squarespace.com slash twist thank you to square space for making such a great
that we used year after year at an affordable price and we really appreciate your partnership.
It is a share of a company. You're getting a share of the venture firm as the general partner
in a venture firm like I am or Jason Lincoln is or anybody who's got that title. So if you were
to take that away and then the person has to pay ordinary income tax, you're just going to go
from capital gains treatment, which is half maybe of income tax to income tax. What does that do?
that means venture capitalists make half as much and they pay twice as much in taxes,
which means less people want to be venture capitalists, less people,
uh,
they just won't work as hard or be in it as long because you don't make enough money,
I think, uh, on average from it to make people want to take that hit.
And so, yeah, it's, um, going to lower the number of people who want the job.
I don't actually care because I hit a couple of home runs.
It's not like, and I'm going to be doing this.
this for another 10 to 20 years. I'm kind of on the second half of my career. I'm on the back nine,
as they might say. So, you know, it's like, is it going to make me stop investing in startups?
I might make me retire a little bit earlier, if I'm being honest. Like, what's the point of
putting all this work in? If I'm going to pay twice as much in taxes, yeah, I mean, if you sold your
equities and had to pay income tax on them and you paid 50% or 52%. I think that becomes the question is
how many people quit. Dan Primrak, he actually retweeted me. He did a quote tweet and he said,
every time this issue comes up, I ask VC and PE readers if they plan to quit, have never gotten a
single yes. So I think people do a little hand reading. Jason Lemkin retweeted it. I'm on Jason
Lemkin's reply. I'll just looking at this sort of back and forth. And Jason Lemkin says,
let's just see. We will find out what happens when, you know, this actually, if this actually
happens, if it happens. What Jason Lemkin said, would I
keep seed venture investing in QSBS, that's qualified small business stock for VC ended,
and I had to pay ordinary income tax rates on all seed investments, not sure, maybe not.
So I can tell you all the syndicates out there, if you get word of QSBS, if you get,
if you make syndicate leads, you know, people who do syndicates on Angel List and other platforms,
if you make them pay twice as much tax, I do think it will disincentivize them because the whole
business, the economics are based upon hitting a home run and paying.
Paying capital gains tax, not income tax.
If you take that incentive away, I do think you could see 10, 20, 30% of people say,
you know what?
Not worth my time.
So that perspective was actually echoed by, again, Dan Premack.
He had a great tweet.
He says, source on phone just now on the carried interest tax situation.
Quote, it's like the red wedding.
Trump collected all the VCs at the White House so we could more easily murder them.
Just going to show that some people are really, really mad about this.
So my question was, how much more?
money are we talking about? And I actually, I found a bill that was put out, I think it was yesterday,
by a couple of reps in the house. And they said that according to the Treasury, closing the loophole,
to use that phrase, would raise about $6.5 billion in revenue over 10 years. So $650 million a
year. And the differential is 23.8% versus 40.8% I think is the top marginal versus the
current carried interest rate. So it's about 17%. 17% yielding 650 million.
means about $3.8 billion in yearly income that would be taxed at a higher rate.
It's money.
It's not deficit changing money, Jason.
But, you know, we have talked in the show about shared pain and all that.
I guess this is when the rubber meets the road.
You know, how much do people want to take pain for revenue versus more deficits?
I guess.
Yeah, I mean, cap gains rate versus ordinary income, federal probably 20% versus 37%
If I'm reading here, California would be 13% added on top of that. So your total rate,
if you made a million dollars as a venture capitalist, which means, let's say, your firm had a
$5 million return, which would be 20% of $25 million. You sold a $25 million. Yeah, a $25 million gain
on an investment. You get 20% of that $5 million. You split it between four partners and 20%
of it between the rest of the staff. Each partner gets a million bucks. Instead of getting $630,000, they
would get, no, instead of paying, yeah, getting $630,000, they would get $500,000.
So it's actually not double, but it's still very significant.
And then it would drive more people to live in a state without income tax, one of the five or
10 states.
So it could actually really affect California.
More people would live in Florida and Texas and other states, which, you know, is the big
trend. All these people from New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, moved to Florida from the private
equity space. And in California, they've moved to, I think, mostly Nevada and Texas. So that's actually
what this will do. It'll drive people out of the major cities where they'll look to get a savings
on the difference between cap gains and or any income. They'll look for that savings by moving
jurisdiction. So that actually could be the second order effect as people go, gosh, this isn't
enough money to make a living. I'd rather be a founder of a company instead of a capital allocator.
Because the founders and the LPs, they're still going to get cap gains treatment.
So what you're doing is you're saying, everybody who works at the company gets cap gains,
everybody who is an LP and a fund that invests gets cap gains, the founders get cap gains,
the GPs who pick the companies, work on them for a decade.
They don't get cap gains.
So three out of four people participating in this equity creation, get cap gains treatment,
the VCs don't.
That's actually a way to look at it.
So, again, I don't mind paying more in taxes.
I just think if you're going to get rid of cap gains tax,
you should just come up with one flat tax and put it between cap gains and income tax, right?
That would be easier because when you...
So then lower the...
Well, we could lower the top marginal rate, right, to call it to 35,
and then raise the capital gains to that and then or carried interest to that.
I can see ways to do it.
I don't think it's going to get killed.
this is not the first time this has come up.
Trump brought it up in 2016.
I think Biden brought it up too.
Consistently, it's raised as an idea.
And then it could shot down because I think a lot of influential people don't want to endure it.
And so I don't think it's going to happen this time.
I just found it surprising, given how close Trump has become to a number of people in the venture capital community in the last 12, 18, 24 months.
I thought that was going to buy them a bit more.
Yeah.
And private equity.
I think this is saber-addling in.
I think it's a 60% chance
of saber outling, 40% chance of reality.
I do think it will push
you know, one in five folks to just retire
and be like, yeah. Or maybe of angel investors
and people who do syndicates, maybe half of them
or a third of them might say, yeah,
not worth it for me to syndicate these deals.
And it just slows down
the one thing we have in America
that really drives investment,
which is we incentivize
people to make these investments
and to create funds and syndicates
and all kinds of clubs and angel investing clubs
to take advantage of capital gains
and investing companies
as opposed to just putting it in
an index fund and, you know, retiring.
And so that's what you got to be careful about.
And this qualified small business
means you don't pay taxes on the first,
you don't pay federal taxes, I think,
on the first 10 million in gains
if you invested in a company
under $50 million valuation,
we created that qualified small business exemption
to get more people to invest in startups.
So you get rid of that.
Then people are going to be like,
you know, I'll just put my money in Bitcoin and an index fund.
I want to invest in startups.
It's easier.
Those are two very different things to be clear,
Bitcoin versus index funds.
But I need DCA to both.
So I'm with you on that.
All right.
If you're shipping a product or rolling out an update,
you're building a company,
you need to be organized, right?
We know that.
Atlassian has exactly what you need
to streamline your work
and smash her goals.
And the Atlassian for Startups program
is packed with all the tools you need.
Like Jira, where you can track every task, sprint, and bug.
That's the industry standard.
Confluence, another industry standard
for team collaboration and documentation.
And of course, Loom for quick video explainer creation.
Now, Loom is really brilliant.
My team started using Loom on their own.
They started paying for it on their own.
Why?
They wanted to get credit on the investment team
for communicating to me,
the general partner of the firm, why they wanted to invest in a company.
So they would do a loom where they recorded over a recording of an interview they did with a founder
or visiting their website and going through why they want to invest in a company.
And this was so great for me.
I would be skiing in Japan.
I would be on a flight to New York to see my parents.
And all of a sudden I get a notification for one of my team members.
Hey, watch this loom.
And I get the link for the loom.
I click it.
And then I can put comments at any time.
So it's like doing a conference call, but on my time, asynchronously, and I can communicate right
there on the video.
Also included in Atlassian for startups is Compass, Jira product discovery, bit bucket, so much more,
all powered by Atlassian intelligence.
That's their built-in AI.
Atlassian software helps companies like Canva, Cloudflare, and Rivian, keep growing and
innovating.
Whether you're brainstorming on sticky notes or scaling to the big leads, atlasian is here
to accelerate your startup's growth.
Check out Elassian for startups where eligible startups get up to 50 seats for free for one full year.
That is absurdly generous.
Why can they be so generous at Atlassian?
Because they're the standard.
Atlassian is the standard.
And they are generous to startups because they were once a startup.
I remember meeting them 20 years ago in Australia.
What a great company.
Head to atlacian.com slash startups slash twist for complete details.
Speaking about things that we incent with our venture capital money, Jason,
I have brought on a Twist 500 CEO and co-founder on the show today.
It's a company that when I first heard about them,
I was incredibly excited.
Their name is orbit fab,
and they are building essentially a way to refuel satellites
and spacecraft and space stations in orbit.
So they are doing what I think is one of the coolest things in the world of space technology today,
backed by Techstars, Type 1 Ventures, a bunch of other folks,
and they have a lot of cool stuff.
So Daniel, we're going to bring him up right now.
Daniel, welcome to the show.
Thanks for being here.
Thanks, Jason.
Great to be here.
Nice to see you, Daniel.
So tell us, what is the mission of the company, so to speak?
We want to see a bustling in space economy that can support permanent jobs in space.
That's our long-term vision.
Our mission is to build the industrial chemical supply chain that supports that.
To do that, we're focused right now on storing and delivering fuel in orbit.
All the satellites in orbit need fuel, otherwise they drift around and have issues.
You have to de-orbit them when they run out of fuel.
And so we paired that down.
And we're a gas cap company right now. We're building the gas cap. We're built the interface. It's
becoming a de facto standard, which gives us an interesting position then in the market on fuel in orbit.
I have a video of that right now, Jason. Well, you ask your question all plays in the background.
Yeah, I was going to say, it sounds like you're building a gas station and you have confirmed.
Here is the gas station. I don't know what type of fuel is used in space. I thought people
used batteries and solar in space. So what is the fuel in these satellites that you're
refilling? Yeah, we're using hydrozine is what the US government wants. It's an interesting
chemical. It's great for satellites. It's not so great for people. So a lot of requirements
come on the ground to make sure that we can fuel safely on the ground and then we use that
equipment to fuel in orbit. You can use batteries and solar arrays to run all the electronics,
but you can't move the satellite just off electricity.
Imagine putting a Tesla in space.
You spin the wheels all day.
You don't go anywhere.
You have to push something out the back.
And so it's really reaction mass or propellant that we're providing.
And yeah, there's a few different forms of that.
So hydrozine is a chemical that goes into satellites that allows some propulsion to occur.
That liquid, I'm assuming it's like a liquid propellant.
Yeah, it's exactly right.
Yeah. Okay. So you get that liquid up in space. You build your space station. You created the standard for the gas hookup.
Yep. What did people do previously? They just, the satellites fall out of the sky and they don't refuel them and then they just send up a whole other satellite. Is that how it works today?
They literally have to ditch them because you can't control the satellite without fuel.
You can't move it around.
It becomes just a piece of debris.
And it's dangerous.
Like we're now putting up thousands of satellites into the busiest orbits.
It's a problem with the debris.
So we're required by the government to get that debris out of orbit.
And in fact, like, operationally, you don't want that in a busy orbit.
So as it comes to the end of the life, as they get low on fuel, they have to ditch them, which is staggering.
So 85% of the satellites, they've got customers still.
the transponders or the imaging sensors or like whatever the payloads are still working,
but they have forced to get rid of those satellites because they're out of fuel.
That is extraordinary. And so is this an open standard you've created for the gas caps,
as it were? Anybody can put it onto their fuel?
We make it available under an open license. Yeah, we make it available under an open license.
We're in discussion with folks that make a lot of the valves for satellites and rockets to manufacture
and sell that. So everybody should be able to get the gas cap and use it to fill our satellite
on the ground. And then in orbit, we've got the systems and sort of the active side that can dock
to the satellite and deliver the fuel. We can sell fuel as soon as people have that gas cap on it.
I want to ask about commercial progress because in March of 2024, you guys said that you were
shipping your first 12 gas caps to customers, including the Space Force. Have those made it up into
orbit yet? Or are you guys not yet actually up in space?
Yeah, good question, Alex. We've sold now 52 units. We just flight qualified them last year.
And in the summer, we got approved by Defense Department in the U.S. for using them on some of the
biggest national security assets and everything else like that. So it's the first commercially
available fueling port. And that's why it's becoming a de facto standard. So we sold 50 odd units.
We shipped a bunch of those. They're going up on satellites starting this year. So already it's
starting to build that market. And of course, every one we expect is several million dollars of
revenue that right now we're the only folks that can fuel that. So we've built a three, four,
million dollar market just from selling those gas caps last year. So right now people buy a car,
they drive it, they run out of fuel, and then they abandon the car. Now you'll be able to go fill
up their car and then keep the car in orbit and you're able to refill it, I assume, indefinitely.
So then it's just what is the life of the satellite? It now becomes the issue. So what would the
cost be to refuel an average satellite? Let me talk about the cost of what they're doing right now
and how much that fuel is worth. Right. You characterize,
it really well. Imagine buying a car that's got 10 or 15 years worth of fuel in it, right? Most of the
fuel is in a train of trailers behind the car and you use up most of the fuel just towing the fuel
around. Oh, is that how it works now? So you basically have an RV and you've got two people in it
and then the other 90% is fuel. So you have to spend all this money to put fuel up, which means
you have to have a bigger satellite, which means you take more space on a SpaceX flight.
So 50% of the satellites on average is fuel.
40% and that's not making, like, your money is being made on the payloads,
but you've got to have that fuel and you're using a lot of it just to tow the fuel around.
So you're on this exponential, right?
Because the last piece of fuel at the end, you've had to pay for with fuel through the whole life.
And then you're on a second exponential because you had to buy it all the day you launched.
So the cost of capital is adding up.
So when we went out before we started the company, we're asking folks like,
what would be the marginal revenue if you had an extra kilo of fuel on orbit?
The answer was a million dollars or more, which is a staggering number, but it's not worth putting
any more fuel in up front because of those exponentials. So if we can run the logistics and deliver
that fuel just in time at the end, we can get fuel to orbit for one to $10,000 a kilogram,
I've got two or three orders of magnitude arbitrage. I can drive a freight train through
that business opportunity. So that's why we went for it. Can you make hydrazine in space,
or do you also have to get all that hydrazine up in space and pay for that cost?
Right, you're reading way ahead in my business model. You're absolutely right. We actually got asked about doing that because the Space Force wanted to know if we have an issue, if our satellites get taken out in orbit, they're so important to how we operate, how quickly could we replace them? So they brought a satellite, they brought a rocket, and they said, go for it. How quickly can you get this to orbit? And the thing that took the longest was fueling because of how dangerous and toxic is. It took them like a day and a half waiting on the pad to get it fueled.
Got it.
And so they called us and said, can we buy that fuel in orbit?
Could we put inert feedstock in and you could make it in orbit?
We actually intend to do that.
So phase one, right, storage and delivery of fuel.
Stage two for the company is to become, do the refineries in orbit.
Stage three, I want to use material that's coming from asteroids and ingest the trillions of dollars of material.
That's my 20-year goal.
So right now we're a gas cap company, but yeah, we have ambitions.
Because it's nitrogen and hydrogen, I see here, so you can get it from water, ammonia,
so it could be found
and it has been found on
asteroids in space
so eventually right now
we're going to be putting
that stuff up there
you're going to have to use like
you know
get a get a hit your ride
from Elon and get up to space
that's great
because all those satellites
don't have to put it up there
and it's more efficient
and then you got to just chase them around
at 500 miles an hour
or a thousand miles an hour
and sink up to them
that's a little bit of work too right
the chase I assume
yeah once you match the orbits
Like the relative velocity is not always what matters, not the absolute velocity.
It's like being on a highway.
You can actually jump from one car to another.
As long as the wind doesn't get you in space, there's no win.
Founders, let's talk about building your brand here in the real world.
We know digital ads are amazing.
But if you want to stand out in 2025, maybe you need to think a little bit bigger.
And a great way to do that is out of home advertising.
Yes, you know, those really impressive billboards you see everywhere, or even the beautiful murals
that everybody loves, this is how you build a brand. And AdQuick makes out-of-home advertising easy,
measurable, and fast. They've taken the headaches out of O-O-H. You've probably heard O-O-H out-of-home
by combining ad tech precision with real-world impact. So now, planning, deploying, and tracking
your campaign is as easy as running digital ads. With AdQuick, they're going to hyper-target
your campaign in minutes. Then they're going to use their data and technology to ensure your ads
reach the right audience every single time.
Plus, they're going to give you real-time insights
to measure performance and optimize your spend.
So whether you're building brand awareness
or looking to drive customer action, right?
You want to acquire customers.
You can see why AdQuick is trusted by everyone
from the fastest growing startups to the S&P 500.
Take your brand to the next level with AdQuick,
the smarter way to do OOH.
And just for Twist listeners,
AdQuick is waiving their fee on your first campaign.
That's an amazing offer.
Get started today.
adquick.com slash twist. That's ADQU-I-C-K-com slash twist. You're coming up and the relative speed
when you dock the satellites together is less than a centimeter per second, right? They do it really
slowly to make sure that nothing's getting bumped. So while it takes a bit of fuel to do it,
the math is known. And these days, that's a solved problem. Billions of dollars has been spent
on self-driving cars. We use a bit of that technology. We make self-driving satellite.
Where are you guys based?
based in Colorado.
Set up in Silicon Valley, good place to raise money.
But Colorado is an excellent place to hire aerospace engineers.
So we had a great time.
I mean, if you think about the cost of living for an average engineer,
if they're making low hundreds of thousands of dollars a year,
they are poor in Silicon Valley.
They can't afford a home and they're under constant duress.
And if they do it in Colorado,
you can buy a beautiful home for a half million dollars or a million dollars and go skiing.
I was about to see.
I knew this was going to get back to skiing, Jason.
I mean, it always does.
These engineers, they love to.
carve. They love to get out there and smash some of that awesome powder. So,
uh, continued success. This is amazing. And it's just so great to see the space industry,
finding all the nukes and crannies. It's almost like you're rebuilding the entire internet
infrastructure. And it's like watching the internet just that all that infrastructure. It's like
you're like AWS giving people storage. Other people are, you know, the transport layer,
you know, fiber lines. And it's just wild to think.
in 20 years what space as an industry is going to be like and how easy it is to get stuff up there now.
I mean, how easy is it going to be to go to space in 20 years are you then?
Well, the Starship is expected actually to get operational this year.
That is going to be a paradigm shift.
It's absolutely amazing.
But let me paint a picture for you as to why VCs are really getting interested in this.
We're starting to build this industrial chemical supply.
There are companies looking at manufacturing in orbit.
And there are things you can do in zero gravity you can't do on the ground.
Like buoyancy doesn't exist.
You get orders of magnitude, lower defect densities in semiconductors.
You can make drugs that you can't make on the ground because the gravity effects will destroy
them.
You can 3D print organs and they won't collapse on themselves.
You can actually, like, there's so many things you can't do.
We barely scratched the surface.
So I can see a manufacturing process where you need a bit at the start, a bit at the end in zero
gravity.
So you just do the whole thing in space.
And we end up moving most of material of manufacturing to all.
orbit. I can see healthcare, you do a surgery, you can put somebody in a rotating environment
where you have this pseudo gravity, but it's lighter on your heart and you can control it. So you
could recover better from surgery. You could retire in orbit and lower the stress in your heart
and move a better life than three times as long. We're talking already now with folks that are doing
power beaming from space. You get three times as much power because there's no eclipses,
there's no nighttime, and the atmosphere isn't attenuating the power. And if you
want to run nuclear, let's do that in space, not on Earth, that's safer. Let's move power generation
to orbit, right? I've just moved 20 or 30 gigatons of CO2 emissions to orbit. I think we're going
to have a bigger economy in space in 50 years than we have on Earth, because there are so many
industries that you may be up there. I love that. But one thing that you and I were talking about
before we jumped on was just sometimes raising money for our hardware projects is a little bit harder
than software projects. And I'm just, can you tell us a little bit about how hard it was to raise
capital at the start of orbit fab, and then where the venture world is today? Because it seems to be
different. When we started this, it was like classic pre-seat, massive opportunity, but oh my gosh,
the risks. We had three or four impossible things that we had to achieve. We've now ticked off three
and a half of them. And so our investors are getting pretty interested. But we did the Techstar's
Space Accelerator program, which is fantastic. And then we're talking to some folks from like the software
side of TechStars. And a lot of history and startups are talking like, go out and raise money, right?
you hit the road when you're when you're prepared it'll take you sort of two,
three weeks to get a term sheet and away you go.
And we asked, what about for a hardware company?
And they said, oh, that'll take four or five times longer.
What about a space hardware company?
The guy just said, oh, don't, don't bother.
Well, these space things, I seem to remember Bayjou from Robin Hood was working on a space-based solar
energy company.
I think it's called Ather flux.
A-E-T-H-E-R-E-E-R-E-E-E-R-E-E-E-E-R-E.
F-L-U-X.
So that would be actually a good person to consider for the Twist 500 next, Alex.
So let's take a look at the co-founder of, yeah.
This is the next, I think, shoot a drop, as you're pointing out, is, well, what if you could
collect energy in space and then somehow get that energy, which the density from the sun coming
to solar in space is going to be much greater, right?
because there's no atmosphere.
So my understanding is even solar might work better up there
than you use a beam, which hopefully you don't miss.
But if you go beam to beam, you know,
you could send a lot of energy from space down to the ground.
So imagine the most remote island in the world, Alex,
having not just a satellite with Starlink,
but the Starlink and some base station down there
getting energy from the sun from solar arrays in space
and then you don't have to run a cable or burn gasoline or have ineffective solar down there.
You could just point and send energy anywhere.
Again, this is like some sort of, I don't know if this was like the, I think this might
have been Superman Threes theme, which was there's going to be like a solar array in space
that burns a hole into the earth.
But yeah, be careful.
Was that a James Bond movie actually?
It might have been Moonwryker.
Yeah, I'm not sure exactly which one, but, man, what do you, this energy is going to work,
you think?
It was one of my three industries on the list of, um,
of things that might create the first permanent jobs in space back 20 years ago when I got into
this industry. I at that time ruled it out because the economics did not work. But you have to look
at what Starship is doing the launch costs. The cost of solar has come down, the efficiency has gone up,
all that matters. The technology for getting that power to the ground and doing it safely,
which is massively important, that is now maturing. But it's really the drop in launch cost,
which is the biggest factor. So I was talking with somebody just yesterday at a conference and they said,
the number they need on launch costs is $200 a kilogram.
As soon as it hits that point, all solar goes to space.
And at what price point does your business make sense?
Because you have to get the Hydrazine up there to run this process.
So what's your kind of like maximum viable kilogram launch costs for orbit fab to work?
Remember that number that I mentioned, $1 million of marginal revenue per kilogram?
There's a Space Force journal publication that said for U.S. Space Force,
the value of just delaying the asset replacements is $800,000 a kilogram.
And that's before you think about how contested, like the reason space force exists is because
we need to be getting out of the way and showing up surprisingly as a photo.
The real value is just prevailing in conflict.
So we have a contract with the US government the first time that's ever existed.
It established the price of fuel at $200,000 a kilogram.
My launch costs are $10,000,000 kilograms.
I'm already viable at today's launch prices.
There's a margin. As those costs draw, it just increases what I can do. It increases the amount of customers. We will chase that pricing down and jack up the volumes. That's the future of this industry. Absolutely fantastic. This is amazing, Daniel, and we wish you great success. If you're looking for a job, I understand you've raised a little money and I think you're hiring. What's a position you really need to fill because we've got a big audience here. Maybe you get a couple of resumes out of it.
Awesome. We need a lot of mechanical engineers, fluid.
thermo, a bit of electrical and software, and then all the things that support a startup, right?
80% of what we do is running a startup business. So I need finance. I need FP&A. I need HR or all those
kind of things. The space industry across the board is like that now, right? It's now a mature
business. You don't have to be a nerdy engineer. If you are, then there's a hell of a lot of
opportunities as well. All right. Well done, Daniel, and continued success. Thanks, Alex. Thank you,
thanks, Alex. Thanks so much for taking the time. Oh, wow. What a great guest. And I'm so excited,
Alex, that we're adding so many interesting companies to the Twist 500.
If you go to Twist500.com, our friends over at Coda, they're not the sponsors of it,
but they make really great software.
So we made an amazing database.
I think we got 200 companies in there.
We're going towards 500.
230 and plus another 15 today.
It's basically 250.
So it's back out of time.
Actually, so I'll just take a moment to ask the audience.
You know, my email is Alex W at launch.com.
And we spend a lot of time going through funding, news stories, revenue growth.
just trying to find these breakout companies that are going to really drive economic success.
We only have so many eyes.
We're always looking for great suggestions.
You can nominate yourself, but you know, minus five points.
But if you know a company that's really burning up, just let us know because we're trying to make sure this is the list of the best companies out there.
The best private companies, you know, most likely to become sustainable, independent companies for a long time.
So we're looking for the next Tesla, Uber, Airbnb, DoorDash, Google, Facebook, etc.
So if you have them, send them along and we'll keep figuring out who those top 500 companies are.
And if we do, I might make an index of it and just raise $100 million to try to put, you know, a million dollars into each of a hundred of them or $500K into each of them.
So that is my long-term play here is we really define these well.
And then maybe we'll make a fund.
Yeah.
That would go and try to acquire shares in those companies in the secondary market.
So twist500.com.
We're trying to get this wrapped up in the first half of the year with great companies that have a ton of revenue.
So make sure we're looking for ones that have that clear path to revenue and sustainability.
What else is on the docket today?
Well, how about a Twist 500 company with tons of revenue that just did a massive secondary?
Just hitting all the things you just said.
There's a company called Deal, which helps those companies hiring remote employees around the world.
A couple of big news items here.
One, they just pulled off a $300 million secondary anchored by General Catalyst.
and a, quote, sovereign investor.
This went to buy out their early investors.
The company is not exactly a spring chicken Jason.
It confirmed its $12 billion valuation in this transaction.
And so I'm thinking, what's driving this?
Why is a nine figure secondary?
Well, it turns out deal is on an $800 million run rate as at the end of last year.
That's IPO territory, isn't it?
We'll get to that.
Growing 70% a year and it's profitable.
So the company is doing tremendously well.
but instead of us sitting down here and going,
you won't believe it.
There's an S1 filing from deal.
We just did $300 million in secondary
to buy our early investors.
And my read is that that means investor pressure
to make them go public
has been dramatically curtailed.
So, yay, but also I would have loved
to not talk about a secondary
instead talk about an S1.
Well, you do have this issue
because of the wrath of Lina Khan
for the last four years.
And by March 1st,
I will not bring
our per name again, but for the last four years.
You're a show, man. You're good. You didn't have a lot of M&A and you didn't have a lot of
IPOs. You know, the market was a little tough for those type of things. And so a lot of early
shareholders need liquidity. When your fund hits year 10, 11, 12, you know, the LPs are like,
hey, can we get some of that DPI? Can we get some returns here on our money? And there are
large firms, like it seems general catalyst and Mubodala. Mubodala, is
a firm I know well from Abu Dhabi. I've met them a couple of times when I'm there. Really great firm,
really smart. The Mubadala team is doing direct investments like this. So I've talked, Alex,
a couple of times about how I see the Middle East's role in Silicon Valley. Well, here you have
Mubatala, you know, buying a significant, you know, ticket size here, 300 million between them and general
catalyst to buy out the early investors. This is something sovereign wealth funds are uniquely qualified to do.
can come in, do this kind of bridge financing or late stage financing, get ownership in these.
And, you know, they'll probably five to 10 excess when the company goes public if it's been priced
correctly. And it seems like in today's market, people are being more disciplined about pricing.
And this is going to be the difference. People fought that a firm like Mubato, and I don't
have any insight onto this deal with them. But in general, they thought, oh, Mubadal is going to be,
you know, an LP in funds. Some people might think the money in the Middle East was the
dumb money, quote unquote, at the table.
You just go to the Middle East.
They take 10% of your venture fund.
You go invest.
O contrary, ma frere, these are really smart people, and they are doing direct deals.
So the model of people, you know, the folks from the PIF in Saudi, the sovereign wealth
fund in Qatar, depending on where you're from, they are now stacked by really smart people.
So Nobel is the venture arm of the PIF from Saudi.
And those incredibly smart people are not just investing in venture funds. Of course, they do that. But now they're in the sort of next phase, which is they are joining the boards and doing direct investments, doing secondary investments, doing strip investments where they buy shares from venture funds to clear those out. And so they're sharps now. They have sharps on their team. And they know, hey, deal is a really good deal. Let's get there and, you know, get a seat at the table now before it goes public. So this is.
Really, the story for me is seeing that Mubatala is a driver here, not just general catalyst.
So I agree with all of that, I think.
But when I'm a little surprised by is just the deal they got, because it feels inexpensive to me.
If you said that deal was growing at 30% and was at 800 million error and was worth $12 billion,
which is 15x ARR, I would have said, okay, 50x, 30% growth, fine.
But 70% growth and profitability, to me, it just feels like they're getting quite a
large discount on the future exit price of this asset.
You know, or we're getting realistic pricing.
Uber is trading at, you know, two and a half times sales, and then you have, which, you know,
I feel obviously talking my own book is like unbelievable when Palantir is trading at 80 times
sales.
So there's like, there's your range, folks.
People can get really enthusiastic and people can get super pessimistic and then in between
is reality.
If we look at this, if they're doing 800 million,
in revenue. What was the valuation?
12. Okay, so it's roughly,
what is that, 14 times?
15. So 15 times sales,
if you, if they're growing,
would just say 60% year every year or 70%.
I mean, that's pretty amazing.
I don't, right? Right?
Yeah, so if they're at 70,
they're adding another 500 million in revenue,
they'll be at 1.3 billion. So then it's like 10x next year's
revenue if it keeps up.
you know, 10x, 12x, top line revenue is very expensive for a public company. But if you're getting in early,
you're securing those shares and it's going to go public and you have a five to 10 year holding window,
which a sovereign wealth fund would have. They might want to hold this for five to 10 years because they're public holders of equities as well.
You know, if this thing's growing 70 percent and they overpaid by a year or two and then it catches up in the public markets in year three and four,
and then it keeps growing and you've secured your position years five, six, and seven with an
outside chance that it could get a Tesla-like valuation or, you know, a Pallantir-like valuation.
That's a sharp bet, right? We start talking about sharp bets. And so I think if you can't get in
at the earliest stages, you know, this is what late stage is about. If they put a 150 million
dollar check in Mubodala and general catalyst each, let's say they split it. Sure. That would be a very big
check size. You can't put that into Series A. That's 10 Series A's, you know, or 20 Series A's.
That's 50 seed rounds. Well, you might be able to put into an AI series A, but any other
normal non-AI foundation model company series A is going to be much, much smaller than that.
Well, valuation is a side, by the way, just so I'll end on this. It's a really good sign
that secondary is happening because secondary doesn't happen if the valuation doesn't make sense
and there's a clear path to the next milestones.
So congratulations to the deal team
and to the early investors who gets them liquidity.
Yeah, no, I mean, look, I'm not shouting about success.
I'm just saying it's almost a bummer for me
that there's so much late, late stage private capital
that companies just don't end up needing to go public
because I just want more S1 Firelands.
On that note, Jason, a small point,
sale point, which is going back out.
It's an octa competitor.
It was public when private via private equity,
now going back out.
They did announce this week that their first,
IPO price share range is 19 to 21.
That's about a billion dollars they're going to raise and they're going to have a valuation for about 11.5 billion on a fully diluted evaluation.
That's going to happen next week if memory serves.
So everyone, we will have notes about that IPO when it does list.
It'll be the first major technology listing of the year.
And, you know, deal aside, I would like to see another 20, 30, 40.
I'll take 100.
I mean, whatever.
And it's a, it turns out it's an Austin, Texas company.
So my hometown right now, and they were founded in 2005.
They've been around for 20 years.
They went public.
They went private.
Now they're going public again.
So thus is the world of private equity.
And they do identity management.
Yep.
Which basically means, you know, when you go work for some big company and you log into, you know, like Octa, many people know that one.
But like, Octa, if you log in one time and then all of a sudden it authenticate you in your 20 other accounts and it's all tracked and secure.
and monitored so that you don't get hacked.
That's what this software does.
Incredibly boring, incredibly profitable, incredibly important.
There's a really big connection between incredibly boring and incredibly profitable
that comes to selling into the enterprise.
I mean, whenever I think about what SalePoint does, my eyelids begin to droop,
but, you know, it's going to go out with worth $11, $12 billion.
So clearly a big transaction.
I'm just hoping it goes well because I feel like if it does perform strongly,
so strongly that the IPO scolds complained that it was mispersexuals,
complain that it was mispriced, like that level of good, then I think it'll be a big signal to other
companies that might be looking at the market right now going, maybe we'll go in the back half
of the year or maybe early 26 to get off the sidelines, get off the benches and go forth.
I know politics is scary right now, or at least tumultuous, but maybe the public markets are
warm and calm and ready to go.
And full disclosure, we invested in a very groovy company cap base that was making like
a cap table software plus plus a lot of other features.
and they were acquired by deal.
And so I have some exposure to this deal and deal.
Oh, I did not.
I did not know that.
Yeah.
Well, you know, a modest acquisition.
It wasn't like, you know, 20 people competing for a company before it goes public.
You know, sometimes these companies, sometimes the management of companies decide they want to be part of something bigger.
And maybe they can't clear market.
You know, in this case, I think they could have cleared market.
But I think they really had some enthusiasm for being part of deal.
if my memory serves me correctly. And so awesome. You know, it's great to have a little exposure here. And I guess
this means somebody might offer us to buy our shares at some point in secondary or we might be going
public. So, and then we syndicated that. We run a syndicate called the syndicate.com where if you're
an accredited or qualified purchaser, you can sign up. And then you will see one or two deals a month
that we're investing in that we share with our syndicate. And yeah, it's a lot of fun.
Speaking about the Middle East, did you see the news that the UAE is looking to work with France to put together a one gigawatt data center inside of France to help them with their AI efforts?
This just happened today.
I'm slightly surprised.
I feel like the doom and gloom around Europe has reached kind of a fever bitch.
And so this struck me as kind of a counter-narrative move, but I think it's a great one.
You mean, every country needs more data centers.
That's the law of the land.
It's great to have them distributed.
Maybe there's an energy reason.
There might be something in the climate or the location.
People may not know this, but France was at 1.80% nuclear power.
I think today they might be 60%.
They were one of the visionary companies in Europe in terms of embracing nuclear.
It might have peaked at 80.
And on some days, they might have been like 90%.
Then you contrast to Germany, which shut down six reactors, I think, over time. I think three of them immediately after Fukushima and then three other ones. And then when they got into this whole thing with Nord Stream and Russia, here is the picture. The yellow is nuclear. Is that right? Yes, sir. And I nailed it. It was, it peaked, I guess, in the 2009 era. And that was, looks like about 80%. Yeah, I think I nailed it. And then it came down. It's
seems to have come down because of renewables.
Their fossil fuels continue to go down.
Their hydroelectric is steady.
And it looks like because of renewables,
they have a little bit less nuclear,
which is fascinating.
I would put nuclear under renewable just personally.
But I do think that this is showing that when we consider the world,
we might sometimes have too much of a startup narrative focus.
And we need to look more at what are the assets on the ground perspective.
because this surprised me until I remembered
exactly what we just said
that France has so much nuclear energy
low carbon power, stable,
baseload energy,
why wouldn't you want to build
the data centers for Europe
where you can just plug in
to an existing running nuclear power plant?
I mean, it's exactly what people want to hear.
Yeah, I'm convinced that this announcement,
I think we've probably nailed it.
This has to do not with it being awesome
to be able to go to France
and hang out there.
this has to do with nuclear.
Yeah.
They probably have extra nuclear capacity, because if it peaked in 2009 and some of it got
redone by or got eaten up by renewables, that means that capacity is probably sitting there.
Okay, so France has 18 nuclear power plants with 56 reactors.
Almost all are Gen 2 pressurized water reactors, PWRs.
One generation 3 EPR is under construction.
but that's pretty impressive.
18 different nuclear power plants
in a country,
I think is France 50 million people or so?
What's a population of France?
I can get you that.
I always like to know the populations.
68, 69 million.
Oh, is that how you count?
So Germany, just for folks who are curious,
is around 85, and then the UK is around 60.
So France and the UK have about the same population,
which explains actually a lot of historic wars
now that I think about it.
Yeah, yeah, no, Germany and is 85 million.
I think German-speaking people, because you've got to take in some other countries, Austria,
around them, it's closer to 100.
But France, though, is not just nuclear power adjacent.
They're hosting the artificial intelligence action summit in Paris,
and I think the VP is going and other major leaders.
So there is some movement to keep momentum going in Europe.
And I really do think that more competition amongst, you know,
free democratic countries is going to be good for American AI and for startups that build on top of it.
So I'm hoping that there's a credible competitor from Europe, be it Mistral, be it someone else.
I just, if we end up with three major AI companies and all American, I don't think we'll see as much competition as we would like.
So.
Well, they are still building.
They've got a bunch of new reactors.
I'm seeing here in Gemini advanced.
Just through the same search into both.
And my Gemini advanced with deep research says they are building small modular reactors.
and some of these EPR two reactors.
And yeah, they're going for it in France.
You know, we're having helium energy come on the show next week.
They might actually be a live guest.
We're sorting out the timing and some things.
But they're doing fusion.
And this is the company of Sam Elman backed,
and he's been very bullish about it.
It would be very interesting if people had made these,
you know, multi tens of billions of dollars commitments
to major data centers predicated on where is nuclear energy.
And then fusion just comes in like the Kool-Aid man and breaks the wall down and goes,
fusion time, because then you can build anywhere.
There's water.
Fusion feels like it's this technology that's 10 to 20 years away every 10 to 20 years.
It reminds me of self-driving, reminds me of satellite internet.
You know, these things are always on the cusp of being here.
And the thing about things that are on the cusp of being here, VR being another one,
you know, sometimes it's like the third or fourth time everybody thinks it's going to happen
that it actually happened.
So here we have Starlink.
Yes, we do.
Here we have Waymo actually doing
150,000 rides a week
in a couple of markets.
So, you know,
Fusion to me feels like 20 years out.
Still feels like a bit of a pipe dream,
but I would love to be wrong
and it comes in 10 years.
But nuclear, though,
is going to take center stage now
because who's going to block nuclear
when you have these data centers happening
and it's so much commerce available
and so much revenue available
that if you're a local state or a country like France or, you know, Texas or whoever's, you know,
trying to get the next Colossus or Stargate in their backyard, it's going to require approving
a nuclear plant or using a nuclear plant that's already there and upgrading it or expanding it.
So, man, this is going to be great for the country. I'm really excited to see unlimited amounts
of energy available. I'm really happy that the hippies are losing because I grew up
amongst the anti-nuclear folks.
And it's always been a position that makes no sense to me whatsoever.
And they kind of won for a while.
We were shutting down nuclear apartments.
You mentioned Germany, but I think it's not just the only country doing that.
And now that there's growing power demand, the anti-nuclear hippies have lost.
And I'm just a boogeant over that.
You know, the only thing I just wanted to touch on was I saw you had a year-over-year
change in U.S. technology.
That chart was stunning.
Oh, yeah.
Let me pull that up.
I got to find the tab.
This feels like the chart of the day.
It's right under the Google AI.
I spend. No, we have a, we have a special version of it. Oh, got it. Yeah, yeah. Well, this says you're on
your change in U.S. tech employment. It looks like we were adding 100,000, 200,000 people a year.
COVID, you had a little dip. In 2022, you had a bunch of people hired, and then into 2024.
This is the AI and the anti-D-EI and anti-management movement here. The Get Fit movement, Facebook,
Google and AI.
I think all of those things combined
are why there's a headwind here.
It looks like
it went negative for all of
2024 and now we'll see
maybe it's flat for a year or two.
The question is,
will this ever come back
or will we have a static team size
for some time to come?
And this indigestion
will just take some time.
I think we'll,
I did see Microsoft fired a bunch of people,
Alex.
for cause, which means for performance.
When you get fired for performance,
a bunch of people were complaining on my TikTok.
For some reason, my TikTok has a lot of this work from home stuff.
And I guess I commented on one or two work from home.
And then TikTok.
So now that's like my TikTok is bulldogs and that.
And it's very interesting.
People were really outraged that Microsoft fired people without severance.
And I'm like, the keyword in that sentence is fired.
I think you're conflating a layoff with,
fired for cause.
If you're fired for cause, you don't get six months of severance.
You didn't do your job.
You were dismissed with prejudice for being incompetent.
That happens with one to five percent of people every year.
That's not a big deal, folks.
You don't get severance for that.
And just before we jumped on and started to record, so I don't have this in the docket.
But I saw the headline from the information, Meta Platforms Ready, staff for layoff announcement on Monday.
And this comes after the company said that it grew its headcount by about 10% last year,
which is slightly contrary to what we've seen from other companies.
But they do seem to be getting the sisters out as well.
And my thought here, Jason, is that we need to stop thinking about layoffs of this,
you know, one, two, five, six percent as shocking news.
They just now seem to be part of the weather.
Yeah.
So meta is going to lay people off after adding people.
But the concept here is they're getting rid of certain.
categories of employees and adding another type of employee.
There does seem to be a swap.
So I think it was worked air,
Alassians, cutting stuff, and they're basically
cutting certain positions, investing in AI and
still hiring. So I think there's been
a bit of like swapping of people
inside of companies, some firing for
cause, some focus on
just keep the high performers, cut the lower
performers. But I think what it adds up
to in aggregate is what that chart showed us, which is that
negative job growth in tech was a real
issue for some time. And now we're just
about back to break even on job growth
for U.S. tech companies.
Oh, and by the way, Joseph Politano made that chart.
I wanted to give me a shot-ups.
It's lovely.
Oh, great.
Yeah, great job on the chart.
And what I'll say is this is going to be a trend.
It will be reducing team sizes at these companies, which means you and your two besties
who are great at building products or services should quit.
Go to founder dot university.
We'll give you your first 25K.
Go to the launch accelerator.
You give you your next 125K.
or go to the syndicate and launch.co slash apply is our common application.
You can fill it out for all these things.
But if you've got a startup idea, Founder University for people with ideas and a team,
launch accelerator for people with a product in market,
getting a little bit of traction, but you need to raise that round and you need to use
a hundred 25K.
And then finally, if you've got 500K in revenue and you're doubling every year and you're
raising around and you need an incremental 250K to a million, that's the syndicate.
Those are the three ways we invest in early.
stage startups. My email for life is Jason at calicanus.com. You can email me your business plan
anytime and I will see one of our team members. We'll get you on the horn with them. And we do about
100 meetings a week, first meetings. You can get one of those 100 first meetings at launch.co
slash apply. Founder Fridays. Type in founder Fridays and we do a meetup in about 100 cities at
Founder Fridays, I believe it's Founder Fridays. Tech.
Somebody in my team will correct me if I'm wrong.
And the goal of Founder Fridays is the first Friday of every month.
Founders get together.
And as a group, they discuss what they're working on, what's working, what's not working,
and they mentor each other.
You can only have six to eight people in each chapter.
That's it.
And then you have to start another chapter.
You could have like two people in L.A., two groups of eight.
You help each other grow.
Four founders, by founders.
first Friday of every month. You can't go if you're a lawyer, accountant. You're trying to sell
something into these folks. You're an investor. It's not for you. This is for founders,
buy founders. Buy founders. That's it. You can buy if you want to if you're a law firm.
You can buy everybody lunch. Go to founderfriads.com. And he's Alex. I'm Jason. We'll see you
next time. Bye-bye.
