This Week in Startups - Jay Trades and SBF's Substack + Award season and Netflix's content strategy with Lon Harris | E1656

Episode Date: January 12, 2023

Molly and Jason chop it up about Jason's latest Jay Trades: Apple, Amazon and Disney. (2:21) Then they briefly discuss SBF's new Substack. (14:42) To wrap up the show, Lon joins us for this week's edition of This Week in Streaming to talk about award season and Netflix's content strategy. (21:14) (0:00) M+J kick off the show (2:21) Jason explains why he placed a bet on Apple (8:12) Embroker - Use code TWIST to get an extra 10% off insurance at https://Embroker.com/twist (9:20) Molly and Jason discuss his two other Jay Trades, Amazon and Disney (14:42) SBF's Substack (19:42) Lemon.io - Get 15% off your first 4 weeks of developer time at https://Lemon.io/twist (21:14) Lon joins to discuss award season with Molly and Jason (35:44) Fitbod - Get 25% off at https://fitbod.me/twist (37:17) Netflix's content strategy is like a “gourmet cheeseburger” (50:36) Award season continued FOLLOW Lon: https://linktr.ee/lons FOLLOW Jason: https://linktr.ee/calacanis FOLLOW Molly: https://twitter.com/mollywood

Hey, everybody, it's Thursday. What a heck of a show. I did some J-trades. I made three trades last night ahead of the inflation print today. They're all up, up, up. I'm going to explain the bets I'm making. And my portfolio is almost back to even again. This is not investment advice. But you can fade my trades or you can follow my trades or you can ignore my trades as you wish at jatriding.com. Yeah, we'll go through him. It's a lot of fun. And then God help us, Sam Bankman Fried cannot stop pleading his case. He just launched a substack. I think we, we We could probably take the credit, though. We've been helping to sort of like revitalize substack, talk about the value of it. Clearly, he must have been reading that and thought, this is the way that I can use this publishing platform to try to get out of the charges against me. And we have the best hot take from our boy, O'M Malick, at Ome, on Twitter. He basically unpacks in 140 characters, Y, SBF, has launched a substack.

And I give my plan. I do a little content brainstorming here, workshop of what, three things Sam Bankman Free can add to his substack. That'll help get him a reduced sentence. And it's Thursday, so we know what that means, Mal. Yes. Another week of this weekend streaming just in time for the real kickoff of award season, of course, with the Golden Globes happening.

And then we're going to talk about this New Yorker piece about Netflix's approach to content. We'll have just a mini debate on whether they're throwing money into the Sarlack pit. or whether they're going to conquer the world. It's going to be a great show. Stick with us. This weekend startups is brought to you by Embroker. The Embroker Startup Insurance Program helps startup secure the most important types of insurance

at a lower cost and with less hassle. Save up to 20% off traditional insurance today at Embroker.com slash Twits. Lemon.io. Hire pre-fetted remote developers. Give 15% off your first four weeks of developer time at lemon.io slash twist and FitBod. Tired of doing the same workouts at the gym?

FitBod will build you personalized workouts that help you progress with every set. Get 25% off your subscription or try out the app for free when you sign up now at FitBod. com.com.com.com. All right, everybody, welcome to Thursday. We'll have Lon on in a moment to talk about streaming and award season and Netflix. And their change in strategy. but I guess first up I made some J-trades last

I was gonna say first up somebody stayed up a little too late I like to buy stuff on Instagram this guy likes to drop many many many thousands of dollars on the stock market well I still believe that learning the stock market is my you know during the recession

is my year long passion or one of them here we talk about it here on the show and if you go to jatrating.com which should work for most browsers my tech teams having a little bit of a hard problem but if you just type in J-trading, you should find the Coda page we built. And I don't know where I'm at,

but it looks like during this time, the S&P is basically even and I'm down 6%. So I am trailing the market. It was down like 20% at the peak of this. I did say... I think you probably... So you traded last night, right?

Because then today, new inflation data came out that is better than expected and there's literally a piece in the Wall Street Journal. Like, journalism means never having to say you're sorry. The Wall Street Journal's like, it looks like maybe inflation was transitory after all. I'm like, you've got to be kidding me. You actually wrote that. Oh, my Lord.

And also. I don't think they're actually, I don't think there's a technical, this is what I was saying when they first started saying transitory. Everything is transitory. What does that word even mean? It means it will be this way for a while and then it will not be that way. No. Yeah. It's transitory. Sorry about the swarst. Well, and then also transitory would mean you don't have to take significant action to fight it. That would be vibrant on. That's the other crazy thing. Right. And I'm like, well, I don't, now. Now, now, now, now, I don't think you can say, oh, it was transitory after all, when actually the Fed came and like broke the back of the economy to try to rate hikes in the history of their actions, right? Like, I think this is like... What even happens?

Yeah. So the... But anyway, as a result, the stock market is booming. Well, yeah. So if you made your trades before you went to the, went to bed last night, then you're having a little bump today. I did. I did because, you know, Robin Hood lists your trade overnight. But, I mean, basically the concept here is, this is an investment advice.

I'm trying to find companies that I think could be five times larger in 10 years. I'm trying to learn the dynamics of public markets to inform myself. I'm doing this with a small amount of money relative to my overall net worth. So it's basically like a million bucks. Just I'm trading here. So what do you buy? Well, you know, I've been thinking about our conversations a lot and which companies, I think, are poised for greatness over a decade.

Right. So everything I'm doing is looking at like a decade-long approach to this. Now, sometimes, you know, that means that in the short term, you could have ups and downs here. But I bought some more Apple. Why did I buy Apple? It is shocking how many shares they're buying back, how much cash they throw off. And I just think as we get closer to this AR deployment, the buzz I'm hearing is that they have something very special. So I just, I think the developer community rallies around a product from Apple in a way different than they're going to rally around an untrusted partner like Zuckerberg.

Now, this is a little bit complex as a trade. I believe the problem with Zuckerberg's bet on meta is a problem with the lack of trust people have for Zuckerberg. Now, this seems crazy. Not it in the slightest. not to you because you've been covering the cover so long. So if you double click on the issue, the platform is only going to do as well as the apps that are built for it.

Now, when I open up my Oculus, every Thanksgiving, somebody brings a new one, my brother-in-law or whoever will have a new one. I put it on. I played a racquetball game. The interface is still really clunky. I did the lightsaber game, Sabre, whatever, the year before. Beat Sabre. You know, and I'm always amazed at the technology.

I played a Star Wars game. And this time around, I was like, you know what? My motion sickness didn't kick in until maybe the 30th minute inside the Star Wars game, which was massive progress because it usually would be in the first three minutes. So I'm like, okay, the fidelity is getting better. So what will define the winner is who makes the best apps. And you know, I start looking at my Apple Watch, which I resisted for seven versions, and then I got it.

And now I use on a very regular basis a number of apps here. I will use slopes. I will use the tonal app. I will use the Starbucks app. I'm looking at my apps here. I will use IMessage, Pelotons app for my heart rate, and overcast for podcasts,

listening, my alarm, and I answer the phone and I set and mapping directions. And I would say four or five years ago, it was zero because I was on Fitbit. So just watching that progression. I hated the watch. I don't wear jewelry.

I don't own any jewelry. I don't wear watches. I'm not a watch person. But this has become like when I forget my watch, it's not quite as bad as forgetting my phone, but they kind of got me. Yeah. Yeah.

I think the apps that are going to come out for the AR glasses out of the gate are going to be pretty darn good. And I think the lag time between the watch and the VR will be a little bit, faster. So anyway, that's my thesis. I just think the apps are going to be great. And I think they're going to pull people in. And I think they're going to demolish Facebook, which I'm a shareholder in and happens to be my best trade. But my best trade there is because I think Zuckerberg is cutting staff. Right. And I didn't buy more Facebook because it had such a huge run-up. I think I'm good with my bet. Listen, I've been dealing with business insurance for three decades. I kid you

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In broker, E-M-B-R-O-K-E-R.com slash twist. and use that promo code twist for 10% off. We love the product. Thanks for supporting us for so many years here at this week in startups. All right. So you bought some Apple. Anything else? I bought Amazon.

And this is going to be a cynical trade. I bought another 500 shares of Amazon, 50, 50 times worth, 95 bucks a share. Why did I buy Amazon? Because they're making big cuts. They're laying people off. Yep. Murder trade. And it's a murder trade.

The more people they lay off, the more shares I want to buy. Because I think it's a bloated company that could be massively more efficient. And I think they overspent. And I think they could have earnings headwinds on the cloud computing business. They could have earning headwinds in other parts of the business. But if you right size the company and you get rid of the quote unquote surplus elites, you know, the last, we talked about this, I think yesterday, like you lay off the last 10,000 people. I think they're up to 18,000 people.

And you start selling some factories. like this is expensive these are expensive people this is going to go right to the bottom line I think the trade here is you know um Amazon's fourth pillar of health care which I predicted on I think all in is that one of my predictions that uh you know I think that that could be a really good one they buy Peloton they buy Woop they buy just some other companies pro nova whatever you know companies they were they could buy in health care they wouldn't hit Lina Khan Lina Khan would have a hard time betting

it would be unpopular to stop Amazon from providing health care to people it's another little rub right? It's one thing to stop Zuckerberg from buying a social app or to stop Amazon from

doing third-party seller stuff or Apple from doing third-party app stores but to stop like lowering the cost of health care or education would be highly unpopular. Interesting. Yeah. And so I think

I wonder what the Amazon trade. I mean, email less producers at this week in startups.com, I wonder what the trust. Because for a while there, it was like Amazon was among the most trusted companies in America. I wonder if that's still true. Like I wonder if what people think about the idea of Amazon being your health care provider. Fundament, like just as a visceral kind of, you know, privacy and trust feeling. Because I agree that anybody who really was like, you know, I mean, people's response when they hear about the Mark Cuban cost plus drug thing, or whatever is just like, yes, give it to me.

But then I think about the people in my life who are like, I hate Amazon and they're evil and I don't want to shop from them. I mean, there's not very many people in my life, but they do exist. No, it's like my weird red pill brother. Oh, really? Okay. Well, that's different. Yeah.

I mean, I just think like there's going to be vocal haters. There's going to be vocal haters of every corporation. There's anti-corporate people and there's a lack of trust. But that's what I mean about a, like a well-known corporation trying to provide you anything. I, yeah. It's like, anyway, email us. I have no idea. I'm just curious, right?

Like, I know people on both sides. I think it will have to do with how delightful and easy the product is. What do people want to save time and money? People want to save time and money. What does Amazon do? It saves your time. It saves your money. When you save people time and you save them money

or you make them laugh and entertain them, distract them in other words. Those three things, oh my Lord, you got a winning combination. I don't think like these things are going to entertain people necessarily, but they're going to save them time and money. That's so funny,

because that's what your three trades are. Like you were like, Deliqful product, save time and money, and then your third trade, entertain them, Disney. Exactly. And,

you know, it's, Disney is just another great trade, I think, uh, right now because, uh, I don't know if you saw Iger

increased the number of $104 days at the park. I'm making the trade based on that. There, it's a hundred and ninety bucks per ticket to Disneyland, I think, on the peak days. What matters is the number of non-peak days that they offer. This shows you the greed factor and how much they love their customers as much as, like,

the streaming services and what they pick for it. When I saw the number of 104 days, $104 days, I thought to myself, austerity. Austerity measures, right? Cut your own tree down, make your own coal bro. I am making a $50,000 trade today on Disney. you know what I did when I saw the $104 thing? I said, I want to take my girls to Disneyland and I want to go on a $104 day.

Totally. It makes no difference to me if I bring five people. If I spend $60 bucks, it's $300. Obviously, that's not going to be a game changer for me. But I'm going on the $104 day for a reason. I care about austerity. Whatever I grew up before, it's just the way I think.

I want to go on the $104 day. Just like when I ski, I want to ski the two hours in the afternoon on a Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, not on the weekends. And I buy the epic pass. cost me $800 because I got the global one this year. I got 14 days in.

I literally have 100 and some odd runs on the mountain. Maybe I get a couple more next week. It's $8 per run right now. Last year I got down to like a dollar per run. Or maybe a buck 25. You know, this is how people think. This is how people should think is about value. When Disney speaks value, okay, now you can get seven bucks with a couple of commercials.

Now you speak in my language. Austerity and value is the theme of 20203. That's my three trees. I think we got one minute for one last theme of 2023, which is, God, help us, Sam Bankman-Fried will not go away. Do we want to talk about this or do you have to scamper? No, I know. I'll talk about it really quick. We'll give it like three minutes, which is all it freaking deserves.

He wants to substack. Let's a freaking substack, this kid. A premortem is literally calling it the FTX. pre-mortem review and is allowing people to subscribe for as much as $150 a year. Let's go. Throughout the article, he makes the claim that FTCS and Alameda research were both legitimately and independently profitable businesses in 2021, each making billions. He cited three things that caused the implosion of FTCS and they were all bleep,

bloop, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. Like, what is he doing? And I think, Oh, Malik, you put this tweet in our group chat, had the best take on why he is doing the substack where he's trying to defend all of this and, you know, kind of trick us all again with his chaff out the back of the airplane. And Ome tweeted, you know this a-hole is trying to pollute the jury pool everywhere and hoping for a series of mistrials. helps out legal eagles for parents to devise devious strategies. FFS. For fricks sake. Sorry.

For fricks sake. I think he's right. I think Ome Mallus could follow at Ome, one of my favorite humans on the planet. Best. Journalists, we came up together and just a great human being. Ome Nelsit. This is a way for him to muddy the waters. Elizabeth Holmes should have started a TikTok.

She would have gotten a half of them. It's true. Can you imagine a. Elizabeth Holmes, if she was like, look, what's the difference between us pursuing this and and Zuckerberg pursuing VR? She could have literally taken that path and said, VR doesn't work, AR doesn't work. They've only got a couple million people. They've burned tens of billions.

We only burned a billion. We were trying to do the right thing here. Technology takes time. And look, these other three people now are making blood testing technology that, that draws less blood. And Apple's working on a watch that's going to try to get your glucose level or whatever, you know?

I mean, she should start a TikTok from prison. Somebody could a listed home to tick talk in prison. Because you would, the thing is like, you literally said it yesterday. It's all about creating some doubt in the minds of a jury. All you need is one to be like, well, they thought they were doing the right thing

and they just didn't know when she's so young and cute and what I and she, you know, I mean, there are a million parallels to people making wild promises that are occasionally getting people killed. And she could have, I 100% agree with him, which is why I'm not even going to bother to go through the crap that he is spouting on the substack, because it doesn't matter.

That's not the point. All right, listen, here's what Sam Beck-Mefree needs to do to get off. He needs to go to therapy. And in his substack, one day a week, talk about his journey in therapy. And being in a 12-step program, realizing that he was over-medicating himself and making amends and he should start practicing Buddhism and meditate and post his meditation statistics to his substack. So the substack, I'm just doing a little creative content. I know. I just want you to cut this part because he's going to do it and it's going to work. Just a little, throw in a little

meditation. Yeah. Throw in a little Judaism plus Buddhism. He's thinking philosophically and then think a little bit about your life's purpose. And if he goes a little self-help guru towards the end of a year of it where he's trying to help people, and he starts helping actual people reading his substack during the trial who say, I did Sam Bankman-Freed's, you know, combination of meditation and diet. He becomes a, because he's already vegan, right? A little weight loss in there, a little fitness, some sleep tracking, a meditation, quantified self plus therapy, plus the Buddhism, Judaism, you know, philosophy of life and our place in the world. He gets that self-help trio going, he's getting off. I guarantee he gets off. Now, I think he's got a path

of, he's going to take three times to get the skin and jail. No, I'm joking. He's, he's going to jail for 30 years. I said, I'm still saying plus 30. I mean, for him right now. I hope so, but everything you said, just send me into a despair loop. I'm so tired of that. So tired of our lack of accountability. And he should chat GPT. He's got a chat GPT. Once he gets chat GPT, if chat GPT four comes out before this trial. I think he's going to be able to use chat GPT4 to find a defense. I can't take it anymore.

I can't take it anymore. Let's turn to, do you writing the worst? He's going to jail. You're writing the worst TV script I've ever heard. So let's talk about real TV with Lon. Real TV and movies. What's coming up? We got Lon Harris for this week in streaming.

Let's bring them on. Okay, imagine this. You got an idea for a great tech startup and you think it's going to change the world, but you got a problem. You just don't have the engineers that you need to make it come true. Why? Well, it's obvious.

It's hard to find engineers. There's a lot of competition. And, hey, you're trying to keep your burn rate low. You need to conserve cash. Now, imagine you had a partner who could provide you with more than 1,000 on-demand developers, right? As many as you need. And these developers were all vetted, experience, result-oriented. And they were incredibly passionate about helping you grow your startup.

And what if they charged, you know, competitive rates? things that you could afford. Does this sound too good to be true? Well, let me introduce you to lemon.io. Startup shoes lemon.iow because they only offer handpicked developers with three or more years of experience and who have strong portfolios. In fact, only 1% of candidates who apply to work with lemon.io get in. A couple of our launch founders have worked with lemon.i.o and they've had an amazing experience. And listen, I have used outsourced full-time teams for decades, whether it was way back at Weblogs, Inc, mahalo, onto inside.com, at launch, this is the way to do it. Go to lemon.com slash twist and find your perfect developer or tech

team. And you can do that in 48 hours or less. And Twist listeners get 15% off for the first for weeks. Stop burning money, hire developer smarter. Visit lemon.com.com. slash twist. For everybody, it's Thursday. That means Lon Harris is here. To talk about streaming. I saw a triangle of sadness. Did you see that?

I have not seen that, no. Ruben Osloon, the director. I like his other, he did a movie called Force Majure a few years ago that I really love. Ah. This was a very interesting film. What is this? Look at you down your whole like A.O. Scott. He ignited your, your passion for art cinema.

I don't know why I have to start with the. name. I just got to invoke it immediately and like immediately derail us. It's a preemptive A. Scott. Yeah. Oh, the obscenely affluent. We had the Golden Globes yesterday and that was nice to see that, you know, a bunch of people won and there was joy in the world. What stuck out for you on? Anything there? Oh, from the, from the globes? I mean, you know, I like the globes. I've been to the globes, by the way. I didn't know. I didn't know why. I thought we were, I thought we were not back.

Like, I thought before the Globes this year, like they hadn't even had them last year. They weren't even on TV. All of Hollywood was like, the Globes are a corrupt organization. They're not diverse. They're not forward thinking. It's basically like an old payola scheme from the 50s that has somehow just survived to the present day. And so I thought we were like done with the Hollywood foreign press and the Golden Globes. They were just going to go away.

But somehow they paid off the right people, the right money exchanged hands. They're back on NBC and Peacock this year. And everybody, like, you know, celebrities were there. And so suddenly everybody cares again. And it's like they never went away. And so, like, that to me was the big surprising takeaway is like, oh, we suddenly were all back and the Golden Globes are suddenly, you know, the thing again. I think the most interesting takeaway in terms of the award season race is we are now really

setting up a battle for best actress. I don't remember the last time it was a one-to-one head-to-to-head. Michelle Yo for everything everywhere all at once and Kate Blanchette for Tar. They've basically been splitting everything right down the middle all award season. It's very difficult to say at this point. I would say it's going to be one of the two. Which was a better performance, Lon just say it. Interesting.

I mean, like, I think they're both. Wonderful. I prefer Tar as mine of the two films, Tar would be the one I liked more. But I do think if you're looking at Oscars as honoring not just maybe these one performances, but a career, a person, Michelle Yo has been, I get why people are like, it would be wonderful to see her win best actors. She's been doing great stuff for 30 plus years at this point and went unrecognized until this year. But no, if it were me choosing, I would give it to Kate. What about you?

Molly, you've seen both, right? I have not seen everything everywhere all at once. That's on my weekend watching now after the emotional speech from yesterday. I feel like the hype is a little, a little big for me versus the movie. this thing, but I intend to wait a little. That's one of the challenges is, you know, there could be a great film that if you go in with no expectations, can be delightful

to you, like Tar was. But once you, something gets a lot of heat, like I'm sure that people after hearing us obsess over Tar or, you know, the upset, the collective obsession, people might come in and be like, ah, you know. I think there's another speaking to that as well.

I feel. I'm, I'm old. What did you say, Molly? I miss it. Oh, I'm sorry. I was just saying enough time has passed with everything everywhere that I think I can probably go in with just a little bit more of a like a baseline. Ah, got it. Yes. You're not like a part of the hype cycle.

Yeah. Right. I'm also like I remember the previous generation of like indie weirdo art films like when Michelle Gondry and Charlie Kaufman and Spike Jones and all those guys were coming out in the late 90s and early aughts. And when I was 20, that stuff blew my mind. And so I'm sure if I was 20, today, this would be that for me.

And so who am I, who am I to come along and be like, ooh, it's not as good. You know, it's not the Truman show. It's like, well, this is the Truman show for this generation. Yes. So that is a, that's a rub there. Yeah, this is the thing that always with art is problematic, to use a term, you know, when you're giving an award,

you're like, well, this person's been looked over for so long, like Scorsese was, right? and they're like, okay, we're going to give it to him. What did he get if we're departed, maybe? Gangs of New York. Gangs of New York. And you're like, well, what about Goodfellers? I think it's departed.

You're right. Yeah, it's like, well, what about Goodfellas? Like, oh, yeah, we missed that. Yeah, we missed that. We miss that. So there is a little bit of the makeup, and the makeup is always challenging because once you make up for one, Molly, now you're blocking some other transcended performance. And then you're constantly doing make goods.

Yeah. And that's the challenge to these award shows. But it's just there's no objective. There's just no objective answer. Exactly. When it comes to best, I don't think there's an answer. I don't think there's one.

You could make a case for a bunch of the nominees every year. And I think it's acting. It's one of those things that it's about how it lands, you know, for you. I don't think there's a, I don't think there's a one choice.

Cable Legends performance. It's just nobody else. I mean, this is why award shows are like top 10 lists. They're a loser. Like, it's a bad idea. It is, it is a question empirically impossible and it only exists for us to argue and bitch about,

which is fun. Don't get me wrong. What? Should we, Molly, get rid of gender in these award shows should just be like best actor in X, Y, and Z? And then just take out male versus female because now you have non-binary folks. You got a whole range of folks doing.

Yeah, Emma, Emma Darcy is kind of forcing this question. Yeah. She was the, the, the older Reneira Targaryen. And she's non-binary. So what category was she? She was in Best Actress? Yeah, they were nominated for Best Actress, but ideally it would just be a non-specific

because, you know, they don't identify specifically with one or the other. Yeah. I mean, I guess the idea is like then you wouldn't have as many. You'd have more. Would you have more nominees? Yeah, you could say 10 acting nominees, but they could be anybody. have an opportunity to win, but maybe you start to slice and dice, like, best actor in a drama, best, you know, I don't know. Yeah, I mean, it, it does kind of make sense, right? It is sort of anachronistic to be like, like, like, we have the lady role and the male role. And sometimes, like, you would have a best actor slate that's just a bunch of, like, mediocre performances. While, meanwhile, you have, like, the best actress slate and it's, like, transcendent. And so, like, some dud dude wins, but some, you know, amazing lady gets left out. So, like, I think, maybe. it just to say best empirically. I mean, I'm somebody who won a like a woman's journalism

award and I was like next year I want to win the one that everybody can win, right? Like I want to beat everyone. I don't only want to be women. It's like acting journalism. These are not things that there's any logic to dividing them by gender. It's not like male acting is different from female acting. It's exactly the same. I would want to beat everybody. In basketball or MMA fighting, you could make a physiological, I'm sure controversial as well for some people, Yeah, I mean, I'm not saying I'm making a physiological. Yeah, I don't want to think you're like, but, you know, there might be a muscle mass or a height issue that some people may fear. Right.

There are activities where it makes some sense to do this. To do that. To do that. To do that. And also, same thing with tennis, right? It's sort of silly that the men play five and the women play three. Like, they could obviously go five rounds. So, yeah, yes, I'm in favor.

I'm in favor. I'm in favor. Dump it. Just be bad. Just give. If you are the best actor in the world. be, get to be the best, period. I like that.

Get to beat everybody. I also like that they have at the Golden Globes, like the best actor in, I guess, comedy and musicals one group and a drama's another. They do slice and this. I kind of like that, too. It inevitably, every year leads to these arguments about which movies are considered in wit, you know, like, oh, banshees of finish year. And how come that gets to count as a comedy?

Because it's so dark. You know, like, so you always get, because there's a lot of stuff that kind of lives on that dividing line. Right. So it's not perfect either, but I think that means will always be stupid. Right. I think that makes more sense to me than doing it by gender. I also think the other benefit of dropping gender is we'd finally get to see all these matchups. We've never, like, what if De Niro and Merrill Streep had great performances in one year?

They never get to go up against each other in an acting contest, but who wouldn't want to see who wins out, you know? Like, I think all these matchups, we've, we've never gotten a chance. chance to play out before. They should have a best sci-fi. I feel like since that's all of our favorite genres, I think genre films, I just finished Tarantino's book, by the way, where he talks about movies. And it was pretty great. He's a very fearless guy.

That's what I determined. He really tackles a lot of subjects that, you know, are kind of third rails of, you know, like we're sort of talking here, gender, race, whatever, in film and portrayals. And I'm surprised the book has not been aggregated a bit with choice moments where he talks about things. I think it's the same thing Dylan is getting away with in his book. I'm reading Bob Dylan's book about songwriting right now. And it's the same thing.

Wherever once in a while, Dylan will say something and be like, people aren't upset at Bob Dylan for saying that. But I think it's that if you're reading that book, you're a Bob Dylan. fan you want to hear what Bob thinks. You're not going to get offended. The people who would be upset, they don't care enough to read Bob or Quentin's book and find out what they have to say. That's interesting.

So if you have a hot tag, do it, write a book, and then they won't aggregate you. Like they do on a podcast. Yeah, write a book this for your faithful fans. And then don't do what Matthew Perry did and go repeat all the most divisive anecdotes on podcast so people can get mad at you. Yeah, you know, it's, this is another interesting issue around art and, uh, over time, which I guess comes up in tar, but, um, I was listening to some Bob Dylan and, uh, some dire straits with my daughter.

She's really into classic rock and we're Billy Joel, Elton John. We're just going through the, you know, springsteen. How did that happen? She just got it independently into Billy Joel, really? Wow. No, I just put on a song or two and she liked it. And she likes the lyrics. And, you know, there's a famous Mark Knopfler song, a Dyrusrait song, I Want My MTV.

And it has a slur in it. It's called Money for Nothing. Money for nothing, yes. And it has a sluror it, the F word. But it's not Mark. The slur for gay people, not F you see. Not the F box. It's not a bad word for gay people.

Yes. And, you know, the song now has been reddubbed, I guess. But he's talking about a racist person using the term, like a... Right. And then there's a dealing in Mark Knopfler's voice. He's narrating. Yeah, he's narrating. And then there's another song by Bob Dylan Hurricane.

You know, it's going through protest and justice songs because my daughter has a sense of justice and protest. And in this song, they're again, quoting another person, you know, a law enforcement official, you know, Dylan actually says the N word in the song. Yeah. And so this is a very like high level discussion of like storytelling and using. and using words and storytelling that this generation is like, well, that's never okay. And then, okay, but is it okay? And Tarantino kind of gets into that a little bit in his book and stuff like that.

It's really interesting with art and time, which I guess Tore goes into with Bach. It's fascinating to with Tarantino because I think he gets a little bit of leeway. He gets brownie points because he was so instrumental in the 90s in introducing a lot of these like black exploitation movies. would not be where they are today in terms of cultural awareness without, you know, Pope Fiction and Jackie Brown. And I think that, so I think people are like, okay, we'll give him, he gets five extra inches to play around with. Then another white guy might, who is coming in just off the street,

just because Tarantino has this story, history with black cinema. Yeah, Django and Chained. Yeah, I mean, he's, he's an expert and he's an aficionado. And he's, even people in that world kind recognize that like this guy knows what he's talking about. Yeah. It looks fascinating. Just talking about the 70s exploitation films and just how even back then some of these films were really challenging audiences. Also, it's fascinating a lot of the films taking place in San Francisco. San Francisco seemed to be a culturally super relevant zeitgeist of a movie location for whatever reason. Dirty Harry. That comes up a bunch. Of course, yeah. The laughing policeman too, I think, is San Francisco, right?

I think Walter Mathis was a San Francisco cop in that. Yeah. Yes, because there's a trolley. There's a famous trolley car seat, so it has to be. The Quentin Tarantino book, I highly recommend. If you're into cinema. And it's really, yeah, cinema speculation. A book by Tarantino.

Yeah, Dillins are called The Philosophy of Modern Song. That's the Dillon book. I am going to read that next. Oh, it's great. He takes, it's, it's essays, and he takes a song, so like, blue suede shoes is one of the essays. And he just writes an essay about, here's why I love this song, here's why this song matters, here's interesting things about the writing. Not his songs, just songs.

No, not his songs. Like other people's songs, but it's mostly 50s and 60s, like this stuff he grew up listening to. I think Elvis Costello's peace love and understanding is the most contemporary song. So it's not tar on tar. It is. No, it's not tar. It's not tar on tar by tar. Yeah, it's Dylan on a bunch of, like mostly the music he was listening to when he was sort of coming up and defining his sound.

Like a lot of little Richard and like a lot of 50s, 60s artists. You know I've been on a health kick over the past year. And part of that health kick is the greatest fitness app in the world fit bod. And if you're listening to me right now, you probably care about optimization, right? saving time, doing things perfectly, and data-driven solutions. You know what? Fitness hasn't had these things until FitBod. FitBod is a data-driven workout app. It blends machine learning with exercise science. They create a custom dynamic program for you based on your fitness goals, based on your experience, and think about this, your available equipment, right? Maybe you're in a hotel, maybe you're at an Airbnb,

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Give us the inside. It's really about, I mean, I guess we should say it's about Netflix. Yes. And Netflix's strategy and shifting strategy and hoped for strategies, right? Yeah. And it's a, it's focused on Beja Bajari. I'm going to look up her title. Bella. She basically, Bella. She, she, she oversees. like, she's basically like the head of content,

if you think of it. Like a head of development. She's overseeing a lot of their, like what's Netflix licensing? What's Netflix making? She's kind of sitting on top of that process. And what I was going to say is in 2020, there was the big story was the woman who had that job

was named Cindy Holland. And she was a longtime Hollywood development executive who helped launch, she was the one who helped launch Netflix as a creator of big studio. style Hollywood content like, you know, House of Cards and Orange is the New Black. And like, she would have been spearheading that, that generation. And then there was a little bit of a power struggle between Bella Bajaria, who was like the international version of Cindy

Holland. So she was working on European acquisitions, Asian markets, and Cindy Holland, who was running things in the U.S. And then eventually, Cindy Holland was let go and Bella Bajaria moved or retire. I mean, I don't think she would. They worded it like she stepped down or resigned. And then this woman took over and became, like, took over that job. And what I think is fascinating is there, it's a really 180 strategic difference between these two approaches.

Cindy Holland was a very old school Hollywood media development executive kind of approach where, like, if you think of HBO, FX, what the high end premium content creators are doing, which is working very close. Finding the top people who just create the best shows, working closely with them, developing shows individually, spending a long time on the process of bringing them together. I mean, exactly like what HBO is doing with all the Game of Thrones series. They're taking years.

They're only going to bring one out when it's absolutely ready. And Bella Bajaria's approach is a much more like just constantly moving through like tons of stuff constantly in development. she's checking in on everybody a little bit as they go, but it's more like kind of managing the flow of everything, licensing tons of stuff, keeping an eye on the international markets and looking for whatever's popping. And she's focusing a lot less on directly overseeing every piece of content that gets made. Right. I mean, what this article talks about too is this, which we've talked about actually. Like, I think I have used the phrase trashy, populist, you know, populist trash. Right. Like, just put everything out there.

This long New Yorker piece, which is actually really well summarized by a really good Twitter follow trunk fan, points out what critics have called the like Walmartification. But what she says is that, you know, she thinks the ideal show is like a gourmet cheeseburger where it's both premium and commercial at the same time. And that the goal is to replace all television. And I think when you look at stuff Netflix comes out with like Wednesday, to me that's the exact. premium cheeseburger model. Like that's exactly what they're talking about. Prestige director and Tim Burton looks great. Big stars.

It's, it's every, you know, it's got a lot to market. It's Adam's family. It's a famous IP, but it's not trying to reinvent the wheel. It is like a C.W.

Riverdale, Buffy the Vampire Slayer type show that is following that formula very closely. And like not, not breaking any real new ground. It's just a satisfying, crowd-pleasing, get Tim Burton in there and make it look Tim Burtony, and it works. Smashed burger, American cheese because it melts better, sesame seeds on the bun. Yeah, it's a shaminger, but it's a good cheeseburger. This is how you make a cheeseburger.

Ketchup leather instead of like just trashy ketchup, you know. Exactly. But what do we think about this? I mean, replace all television, right? that the strategy today is to function as, quote, equal parts, HBO and FX and AMC and Lifetime and Bravo and E and Comedy Central. Now, if a founder came to me and said, I'm going to do all this stuff, I'd be like, no, you're not. Like, what do we think about this kind of approach to, I'm going to try to replace all television? We're just going to try to eat the world.

We don't need to focus. We just need to hoover up content, which, as you know, I think is a financial black hole of a strategy. but also do you need to focus? I mean, the old idea was that networks needed a brand. So like HBO can't get you to subscribe unless there is a brand. And we know what that brand is, the wire, sopranos, you know, like that they defined what they were. I think she might be right, though. I don't know if Netflix needs a brand.

Netflix just needs to be, there's always something on Netflix when you're ready to pull up Netflix. Bingo. Netflix is a 25-year-old company. Let's just pause for a second. It was founded in 97. People forget the envelope days. Oh, yeah. Just exactly how old this company is.

I used to get the envelopes in college, folks. Yeah. I was on the, they had an unlisted nine DVD plan. And when I was in my youth, I had a piece, I had a DVD reader attached to my PC, and I had two PCs in my office. and I would get them and I would rip them to my hard drive

because I wanted to be able to watch them myself. This is when it was okay to rip a DVD, I guess. And I would just get the nine. I'd rip them all to my hard drive and I kept like a hundred of them at any given time. My hard drive would fill up and then I'd watch them at my leisure

and then delete them. Putting all that aside, but eventually became known as piracy. There's not a statute of limitations on that, right? I think it's pretty good, yeah. I'm sorry, a friend of mine was doing that, not me. There you go. That was how Netflix beat Blockbuster was no lay fees.

You could keep those little red envelopes as long as you wanted and you wouldn't get hit with lay fees. And people were like, well, why would I go to Blockbuster? This has come to me in the mail and that's it. So this is just a classic, what got you here will not get you there. What got them to where they were was having a large group of subscribers. That was phase one, right? All those people got the envelopes. Then phase two was they became very good on licensing content, right?

then phase three was making their own IP. So they went from competing against Blockbuster like we're talking about. Then they went to licensing like, you know, like HBO would license movies. They didn't make their own movies all that often. It was pretty close. Like once they launched their own streaming platform,

Lilahammer was pretty hot on the... Yes. That was soon. And that was an acquisition. That was a European-produced show that they came in and grabbed. But right after that was when you got House of Cards, Arges, the new black, and they started to come out with some of their own stuff. And they said, hey, let's follow that HBO. Let's be premium.

We only have a certain number of bullets to fire. So, of course, we're going to be thoughtful. And then it became- And, yeah, House of Cards at the time was a huge movie star in the lead, which never happened on TV. David Fincher directed those first few episodes. People forget that. Yeah. It's very high profile.

So, you know, when you're making a small number of shots are going to be sniper shots. Well, then you get to, you know, 200. million people on a service around the world. And, you know, it's got to be a factory by definition. And they, if you're not going to unsubscribe, what's a way to get people to not unsubscribe? Either you're HBO and you're the high end and people can't live without your next elite piece of content. Or you're going to just have enough in there that people are like, you know what, there's some Sebastian, Chappelle, comedy is going to come up, some squid game out of left field, Ozark. Something is going to hook me.

And that's what gets you to point A to B, to C, to D in business is different. You know, if you look at Microsoft, now when they acquire a company, they say it outright. Like, this thing's got to have like a billion dollars in earnings potential. If it can't throw off a billion in earnings, not just even top line. Well, we can't buy it. It's a waste of our time. And that's really where it's obvious they've gotten to. The one more thing I would say is on it.

No, go ahead. I'm sorry. Oh, I mean, I just feel like 100%. all of that is true, but this is a race to zero. Like, let's just say, you know, what got you, Max didn't get you all the way there, so you had to invent iPhones. Fine. That's a high margin product.

Content is the most expensive business you can be in. You're just throwing money. So the idea of, okay, well, we'll get people there by always having something on, means you're always creating content. And your subscriber margins have to, I mean, maybe the advertising, right? Like maybe launching the ad-supported model is the only way you get those margins up. But I just wonder, like, it's really easy to build a business on the back of someone else's content. But making your own is like an endless black hole.

I think that's one of the big things this whole shift in strategy is addressing is they can't constantly churn out premium expensive content. They've got to limit that to like the ones that are going to hit big out of the year. your Wednesdays, the Crown, Squid game. But unlike a TV network where every piece of content has to kind of live or die on its own, you've got to sell sponsors on this show.

And if you can't sell sponsors on this show, they'll pick the next show. Netflix can kind of get away with like, people don't really like Ginny in Georgia. Poorly reviewed, not a big hyped show, but it always ends up on the Netflix top 10 chart. People will watch it if it's thrown up in front of them. And I think that's what Netflix is getting better at doing, is those shows that they could toss off for not as much money.

They're more the equivalent of a basic cable show than an HBO show. But they can still, you'll watch kaleidoscope just because it's on. It doesn't need to be the biggest type thing of the year. And I think that they might be able to eventually hit that sweet spot. Yeah. Let's not forget, though, that this thing makes a lot of money. 8 billion a quarter, 32 billion a year. Still growing.

And they kind of started hitting a little bit of a ceiling there in some markets, even some decline in the U.S., etc. People with a little austerity measures maybe. But now that they're adding that advertising tier, and who knows, I think they might even have a free tier at some point for some of the old archive, my prediction would be this archive gets bigger and bigger. If you're a premium subscriber, you know, you're going to get everything. If you're like there's no reason Ozark, you know, in year 10 in the archive or Orange is the

New Black after the series has wrapped could not be 100% 20 minutes of advertising supported and there could be a free tier eventually. So this thing is going to get to a billion users, I believe, maybe a half billion free, a half billion paid, you know, and or subsidized, right? There's $2 billion buys a hell of a lot of content a year that archive builds up. And now my understanding, you correct me if I'm wrong, Lon, is because there might not be as many competitors competing, because we hit that peak television, and we see Warner Brothers cutting, HBO cutting. Each show is going to cost less. They're going to tighten the belts there.

There'll be less buyers. And so maybe they hit some efficiencies in content. Oh, yeah. For sure. I mean, that's for sure coming. We were in an era of absolutely unprecedented, unsustainable growth in terms of how many shows and films were just, raw being produced per year. And like, that was Ben Affleck had that quote where it's like,

they're just making too many things. You can't possibly make them all good. There's just not enough people to manage them. And so I think, yeah, now that that's dipping, all sorts of savings are going to come in. It's less competitive for talent. It's less competitive for places to produce your show and sets and

your crew and camera ops, everybody. Everything, the price comes down and everything because there's fewer people trying to buy everybody up and scoop everybody's time up years in advance for their production slates. And so, yeah, as all of that slows down, there will be opportunities for all of these streamers to save. And then I feel like Peacock, there's not going to be a peacock much longer.

I feel like they already have sort of figured out they can't, even if the shows are really good, they can't get a wide enough audience on Peacock. So they're starting to move shows off like Girls 5Eva, which was on Peacock for two seasons is going to go to Netflix for season three because it's a hit and they can't get enough people on Peacock to see it. Same with Chuckie. So, you know, I feel like that's going to be the next one to drop, I think. All right. Well, if Netflix is rabid capitalists who don't care about winning awards anymore, or maybe like some awards just to like, you know, keep the brand name up, um, let's talk about awards.

Other people are going hard. What I, you know, will fully acknowledge that this is one of those years where I've seen nothing, which is most years, but at least. I've seen Tar so like I'm ready. If that happens. Of the best pictures, you've only seen one. I've seen... And every year I'm like, I'm definitely going to watch this. Is that much of a best picture?

Well, we don't know. Oscar nominations aren't yet, but it's looking, it's looking good. And Joseph Kaczynski just Nabdae DGA nomination for director. So he remains in the mix as well. I'd say it's fairly likely. How come there nowhere in the like Vegas Insider odds, which is weird. Really?

I still. I mean, there was talk early on of is Tom Cruise possible in the best actor category. I don't think that's going to happen.

But Kaczynski as director in the film, I think is very, very, why wouldn't Tom Cruise get a... There's a, one, I mean,

there's the personal stuff that it's always a little hinky to nominate Cruz for things because of the Scientology connection. Some people are a little creeped out by him. He's a,

that's why? He's a bit of a device. of figure. So that's one. The other one is that movie and that performance is seen is like, it's him doing Tom Cruise. And I don't agree with this. I think he's a great actor and it's a terrific performance. I kind of can't believe that like Tom Cruise can't get nominated for Scientology, but you guys can sit here and talk about Bob Dylan and Quentin Tarantino who are both just, you know, credible women haters and Umma Thurman is like Quentin trying to kill me and whatever. But like that's fine. We're still, Bob Dylan was like accused of raping a 12 year old. Like,

what? I mean, it's just like the. I mean, I'm just like the. I mean, I'm not. I'm just saying the shifting standards. Those were dropped. I'm just saying the shifting standards here are astonishing. Like, but Tom Cruise is too creepy. Like, oh, okay. I'm sorry. I love Tom Cruise.

Catch me up on who's too creepy. I'm not saying this about me. I would nominate Tom Cruise for everything. I'm a big fan. I'm not yelling at you guys. I'm yelling at the world. I do think the science. Like, wait a second.

I don't even know about his popular accusations. You know, every, it's, it's part of his public persona. And it's, it, I don't think you can. you can't extract it. It's always there. I mean, that was the big news from the Golden Globes was Jared Carmich. He wasn't even there.

And Jared Carmichael made a Scientology joke. He brought on two actors from Top Gunn, and he brought out the three Golden Globes that Tom Cruise returned during the controversy, and he said, maybe we should exchange these for Shelley Miscovich, the missing wife of the president of Scientology. So that Cruz wasn't even in the building, and they were making Scientology jokes.

about it. Interesting. Anyway, what are we thinking? What are we thinking? But I don't disagree. Brad Pitt was there in the audience who Angelina Jolie has recently accused of battering her and people were like Margo Robbie was toasting in. I mean, it's just like, it honestly, it's the shifting like okay and not okay and this is fine and this is not fine. It's just like you can't even keep track. However, I will fundamentally say, I'm not sure that like the acting in Top Gun is what we were there for. Like I'm not, you know, like I wouldn't say.

Maverick. I think he's great. I think Powell's great. I thought Val Kilmer was very good. What is he great acting? Does it have to be? They're acting against like eight G's of pressure. Like they're really in fighter jets doing tricks and acting at the same time. That adds a level of difficulty. All right. Fair. Fair. Okay, cool. If Tom Cruise doesn't get nominated on the Fourth of July, right? I mean, I totally was. I just mean that. I'm only talking about Tom Cruise. Cruz in that role. Like, I just, I think he is an awesome Maverick. Yeah, I mean, I think is that the role we're really going to like, you know, Magnolia, Jerry McGuire.

That's, that's all. If he got nominated for Magnolia and Jerry Mcuire, I'm there. Like, I'm just saying in the case of Maverick specifically, I wanted to win lots of things, but I'm not sure I go like. I think that we, I do. I think that we, we tend to. I'll watch it for the fifth time tonight and then I'll decide. She'll let her know. I think for four nominees she hasn't seen, but she will have seen Maverick. five times. I think performances where actors really lean into their

personas tend to get over low. We assume that that's easy. They can do that in their sleep. But it's not as something like Brandon Fraser in the wow, which I haven't seen. I'm waiting into it. It feels like a huge departure for him.

So to speak. Yeah. Huge. Departure. Yeah. Got it. Yes. I see what you did there.

Yes. See what you did there. Or even like Jamie Lee Curtis and everything everywhere all it was, which is like, I mean, she's fine. But I think that it seems like great acting because she looks so different. It doesn't seem like Jamie Lee Curtis.

She's playing doughty, frumpy. And so we're like, that's unrecognizable. And so that feels like more acting. But I don't know if what she's doing is any more impressive than what Tom Cruise is doing. Yeah, Tom Cruise and Tropic Thunder is funny and different and more notable to some people. But Tom Cruise and Maverick, I think, is a killer performance. There's that part right before he pushes above Mach 10. You know, he's at Mach 10.

He's hit it. And then he's like, could we, could we do 10.1? And he, like, raises his eyebrow a little. And it's very subtle. And you got to remember, he's in a jet. Like, he's making that acting choice as he's in a jet going like Mach 7 or something. I never would have guessed that I would trigger an impassioned defense of Tom Cruise's acting. But I'm happy.

I'm happy with this outcome. This is an outstanding outcome. Best actress odds. Cape Lanchat plus 175. These are provided by draft kings. Plus 175. So you put a hundred bucks down. you win 175.

So that means she is the odds-on favorite. Michelle, is it Yo? I believe it's Michelle Yo. For everything, everywhere all at once. As you're saying, like the career, maybe this performance is amazing. She's 60 years old. And she just won the Golden Globe. She just won the Golden Globe.

Yeah. This was plus 700 before that, I think. That may be kind of like the Michelle bet at plus 700. Because when you're making these bets, it's not just who you think's going to win. I think Kate's going to win, but it only pays off 175. Michelle for everything all at once plus 700 feels like a better bet. It's a big movie. It's a crowd favorite.

She's a legend, an icon from not just, and like, Oscar's so white. Not right. It's not just from this country, but she's, you know,

got huge fans in China and Asia. Like, I feel like it would be, there's a lot of reasons to give it to her. And it's a great performance. She's very good. Also, things I love about Michelle Yo

include everything. And also the fact that she's like up for an Oscar for this movie and she's in the Witcher Blood Origin. Like she just, she's like, I do what I want. It's cool that she's also capable of just like doing a crazy martial art sequence just as effectively as being like the scary mom from Crazy Rich A's. It's like she can, she can do both. She is versatile.

Very versatile. When is the Oscars or when? When do the Oscars are. Well, the nominees are like in March usually. Not for another like month or so. We'll get the Oscar nominations pretty soon though. a week or two, I think. Well, we should do a little Oscar pool.

We should do a little Oscar pool and put $100 in and get everybody to do a little pool here. It's a tough year to call. There's a bunch of big Elvis and Banshees of Inashirin. There's a bunch of movies kind of duking it out for the, for supremacy right now. So it's an interesting year. And Spielberg always, when you have Spielberg in the running, a Spielberg film, you know, it's kind of like. For that DGA award won.

He won the Golden Globe. So, you know, making a late run at it, Steve. I didn't think enough people saw that film. Well, that's James Mangold is taken over. This is the first one Steve's not going to direct it. I know, but I'm still excited for Indiana Jones fine. Yeah, I'm excited, of course. You saw the, you short, short rounds.

Yes, of course. And he's the odds on, at this point, he's taken all the major awards. So he's definitely your odds on favor for supporting actor, if you're an Oscar watcher, by the way. So what if there's one movie in advance of the Oscars themselves and the nominations that I have to watch. I mean, it sounds like clearly everything everywhere,

all the ones I definitely need to watch. You got to watch everything everywhere all the ones. Is there another one that I should really make sure? You didn't see Benchies of Ineshearine yet with Colin Errol and Brendan Gleason. That's on HBO Max now and that's definitely going to win some one or two big things. So you'll like screenplay, Farrles of a possible. Gleeson's going to be up for supporting actor.

What kind of rock do I live under? I've like never even heard any of these titles. And we do this every week. That's Martin McDonough who did in Bruges. This is like an in Bruges reunion because Farrell and Gleason were both in that, and it's the same writer-director. But he also did last,

or a few years ago, he did three billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri with Francis McDormon. Gotcha. Yeah. Okay. All right. I want to see the banshees.

Oh, it's good. It's very, like, darkly funny, but very funny. Yeah, a lot of people talking about it.

So I'm excited to see it. All right. All right. We'll see you next week. Thanks for catching us up on all things streaming. Oh, go. Bye.

Bye.