This Week in Startups - LMArena Goes Startup, AI App Wars Begin, Scott Bair’s Design Playbook | E2114
Episode Date: April 18, 2025Today’s show: Jason, Alex, and Lon discuss the rise of LMArena as it spins out into a full-fledged startup, what that means for AI benchmarking, and how it could monetize its growing community. They... also dive into the emerging value of application-layer AI startups and why OpenAI’s acquisition spree is just beginning. Plus, branding expert Scott Bair drops tactical design tips for founders—from logos to product UX—that can give your startup the edge.Timestamps:(0:00) AI companies and value accrual in the AI rush(1:29) Productivity in remote work(5:12) Overview of LM Arena as a startup(7:22) Business models for AI and benchmarking(10:05) Fidelity Private Shares℠ - Visit https://fidelityprivateshares.com! Mention our podcast and receive 20% off your first-year paid subscription.(14:16) Milestone-based investing and early-stage funding(16:34) OpenAI's acquisition moves and AI market dynamics(20:12) OpenPhone - Streamline and scale your customer communications with OpenPhone. Get 20% off your first 6 months at https://www.openphone.com/twist(21:15) Intangible value and strategic acquisitions in AI(24:30) High valuations and consumer AI pricing models(26:00) The rise of drone startups and autonomous weapon systems(29:46) Northwest Registered Agent. Form your entire business identity in just 10 clicks and 10 minutes. Get more privacy, more options, and more done—visit northwestregisteredagent.com/twist today!(32:00) Venture interest in drones and geopolitical considerations(32:30) Branding, design, and founder questions(43:51) Brand mission and work environment culture(47:10) Savage my startup and live clinic(49:30) Logo design and color theory(56:29) Designing great websites and apps(59:29) Founder University website review(1:00:49) Closing remarks and social media plugsSubscribe to the TWiST500 newsletter: https://ticker.thisweekinstartups.comCheck out the TWIST500: https://www.twist500.comSubscribe to This Week in Startups on Apple: https://rb.gy/v19fcpCheck out:Lunour: https://www.lunour.com/Founder Fridays: https://www.founderfridays.tech/Founder University: https://www.founder.university/Follow Lon:X: https://x.com/lonsFollow Alex:X: https://x.com/alexLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/alexwilhelmFollow Jason:X: https://twitter.com/JasonLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jasoncalacanisThank you to our partners:(10:05) Fidelity Private Shares℠ - Visit https://fidelityprivateshares.com! Mention our podcast and receive 20% off your first-year paid subscription.(20:12) OpenPhone - Streamline and scale your customer communications with OpenPhone. Get 20% off your first 6 months at https://www.openpjhone.com/twist(29:46) Northwest Registered Agent. Form your entire business identity in just 10 clicks and 10 minutes. Get more privacy, more options, and more done—visit northwestregisteredagent.com/twist today!Great TWIST interviews: Will Guidara, Eoghan McCabe, Steve Huffman, Brian Chesky, Bob Moesta, Aaron Levie, Sophia Amoruso, Reid Hoffman, Frank Slootman, Billy McFarlandCheck out Jason’s suite of newsletters: https://substack.com/@calacanisFollow TWiST:Twitter: https://twitter.com/TWiStartupsYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/thisweekinInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/thisweekinstartupsTikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thisweekinstartupsSubstack: https://twistartups.substack.comSubscribe to the Founder University Podcast: https://www.youtube.com/@founderuniversity1916
Transcript
Discussion (0)
All these AI companies, these models, they're building increasingly sophisticated models,
but there's no product.
Like, what do they sell you?
What is like the thing everybody wants to have that you need AI for?
And I think we're now starting to see the answer.
It's like, well, those companies don't even necessarily have to build that stuff.
They just wait for companies to build an application layer on top of their models and then scoop
up the best ones.
And I mean, I think that's inevitably what's going to start happening.
People have been talking about where will the value accrue in the current AI rush?
Will it accrue at the model layer, the Anthropics, the Open AIs, or at the application layer, one step above.
Now, earlier, the device layer.
Oh, no, that's a pretty good point, actually.
Platform layer.
Don't forget Windows.
Don't forget Android and don't forget Mac OS or iOS.
I think we could see some of those platforms just run the table.
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Hey, everybody, welcome back to this weekend startups.
I'm Jason Calcounters, your host.
You probably know me from All In Podcast or this week in startups or my social media or
as an angel investor with me, of course.
Again, today, Alex Wilhelm, you know him from TechCrunch and Crunch Base and Mattermark
and of course his award-win newsletter, cautious optimism on substack.
Go ahead and pay him the hundee.
Let's make him independent as a media producer and,
Ron Harris, you know him from, well, yeah, you used to be on screen junkies, a bunch of other things.
And now the editorial director here at launch helping me with all of our projects.
As we move back to an in-office culture, largely, I think we're going to be literally a majority in person starting next week when our two sales executives in New York report to an office, like a little office share.
Yeah. And then we'll have, I think, nine people here. So that's 11 of 20.
So we will literally have hit that.
Well, I just, I realized I have a theory about the work from home thing, which I shared on Twitter the other day.
I think work from home people on average, I'm talking about average as your book.
So don't get bent out of shape if you're a high performer like Alex.
I think the, um, the atrophy rate is about 1% in productivity and culture per month drops off.
So, you know, if you're work from home for a year or two during COVID, you might be 10, 20, 30% less effective than, and a culture,
you know, atrophy.
But if you spend four years, man, it gets a little weird.
And it has been delightful to be back in office.
I have to say, we had like a meeting on Monday and a meeting in an office with people.
It's just invigorating a lot.
I don't know how you felt about it.
I do.
I feel the same way.
I mean, post-COVID, I got a phone call the first week of March 2020 that was like,
hey, we're taking a little breather.
We're not going to come and we're going to see.
Let's just see how this all plays out.
And I literally never went back to a job after that until a few weeks ago when I started to come here.
All my work was remote for five years.
And look, I'm a self-motivated, productive guy.
I wasn't like hanging out watching TV all day.
I was still doing work.
But you can't help but feel it becomes further and further away.
You watch your career and all the stuff you were most excited about doing.
And it's a distant short.
You watch yourself continually going out to see.
And I feel like it is impossible to fully connect with a project unless at least some of the time you are in real life mixing it up with your actual coworkers having discussions, working on things in person.
Sure, me.
Yeah.
I didn't always feel that way.
Like COVID and the pandemic really, like, taught me that.
I, like, learned that.
Me too.
Doing it for five years on my own.
I also like the separation.
You probably have this issue, Alex, where when does my workday begin and end?
And when I'm home, which I'll probably be home one day a week, you know, ongoing.
Or maybe not.
I don't know.
Maybe two.
Who knows?
I'm right now in three days in the office.
When you leave the office and I do my little 30-minute drive home, I kind of decompress.
I kind of get ready to see the kids and have the dinner.
And it just separates it.
And when I get in the car and I'm on my way to work, same thing.
I'm kind of preparing, okay, what do I got to get done?
And then I do my nice eight solid, nine solid hours.
Get it done.
Turn it off.
I love that.
One thing I've struggled with, frankly, to work from home person is the fact that my commute
is going across my backyard, just what you said.
And so I finished the work day, poof, I go inside and then it just immediately chaos.
Like there's babies screaming.
There's, you know, what things going on.
And so when we had one child, I literally had a 30-minute commute period after work when
I was allowed to just go lay face down on a bed and then get up again.
Now that we have two, that's gone.
So, yeah, it's actually a struggle.
And you have a separate physical space with the, with the backyard.
Like, imagine you're in the same home with two kids, etc.
I just think it's very hard.
I think it's also burning people out.
I noticed like there's the work from home people are perpetually exhausted.
Perpetually exhaustion is like a really, a real thing.
All right, we have a full docket to get to here.
This week in startups.com slash docket if you ever want to see the docket.
We're working on.
We come to you a Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday.
Monday, Wednesday, Friday's here. Let's get started. What do we got in the dock?
So the thing that Lon and I are most excited about today is the fact that LM Arena is going to be a startup and not just a website that does cool things.
Jason, I think we really love to see founders kind of come out of universities, spin out from research projects and build cool things.
I mean, OpenAI did start as a research project. So there's some, you know, history here to this process.
And the company has no idea how it's going to make money. They said that straight up. They're like, we.
Well, maybe just start by explaining what LM Arena is.
People haven't heard of LM Arena, as in like a place where sports takes place.
Jason, as always pulling me back to remind folks what I'm talking about.
So LM Arena is a place that has hosted a very popular leaderboard for which AI models are considered
by the community to be the best.
And instead of just using predefined tests to run models through and get numbers out, it has a
cool arena feature where you put in a prompt and then it gives you two competing results.
And not telling you which model is which,
you have to pick which one's best.
So it kind of gives you the Pepsi Coke blind test for AI models and creates a leaderboard
that has, I think, a lot of play in how people think about who's leading the AI game.
Jason Bloomberg says that it gets over a million visitors a month.
I've played with it.
I use it quite a lot in my own research.
I've participated in the arena system.
And it's just great to have a way to show people, hey, this is what people actually think
is good without having a brand on it.
So to see that company, which has been pretty open, pretty useful, become a company.
I think is genius.
It's a super important thing to benchmark these and create a little bit of a competitive
environment.
A, B testing, I like your analogy, Coke versus Pepsi, side by side.
Over time, people might be able to understand the characteristics of some of these,
and it will also be harder because a big part of the future of AI, especially like sort
of chat, the current version that everybody experiences, the chat CPT version, is memory.
So understanding what you've done in the past,
it's kind of like Google searches.
You used to be able to do a Google search
compared to a Yahoo search,
and we did this at Mahalo back in the day
and see if we could make a better result.
But then when the results become personalized
and it knows, Google knows where you are,
they know what websites you've been to.
They might favor specific websites and say,
oh, you know, you like to read the New York Times.
I'll move the New York Times up a little bit.
So that will change it.
You know, there will be data on the back end here
that the language models will be willing to pay for.
So if they give top level data,
they'll be able to, you know, to the public,
okay, fine.
But if you could get in the back end say,
hey, here, how things are trending,
and maybe you could even pay for custom research.
So this could be, you know, very quickly,
a $10 million a year business
if you get the language model companies
or corporations to pay you for data
$50,000 a year,
$100,000 a year.
Yeah.
If they found it valuable, I don't know if they will find it valuable enough.
So I'm curious what the actual business model will be over time.
Yeah.
So back in the day, we used to say, you know, social companies, you know, Snap when it was small,
Twitter when it was small, they'll sort it out later on.
Get to scale and then figure out the monetization.
And in some cases, that really did work.
Snap is public.
X is still doing billions of year revenue and so forth.
But in the AI game, Jason, I think you nailed it.
I think if you have scale, you can create enough data exhaust to generate value without even
having to go the ad-supported route that social media companies did.
So I can see a lot of ways for this company to monetize.
I just love that they said, hey, we have a cool thing.
Clearly, we have product market fit for what we've built thus far.
How can we take it to the next level and how can we make it more useful?
So they have redesigned their site.
I played with that this morning.
It's fine.
It's a good redesign.
I think it works pretty well.
But to go the corporate route, I think is very fun.
My question is, who will invest in them?
Any venture capitalists will take a bet on this because it's AI.
they'll get some data from it. Sometimes VCs will make a bet on a company that has growth and has
interesting data because it could inform their other investments over time. And this one seems to
have a pretty clear path to cover their expenses. Like what could it cost to run this?
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shares.com and tell them that you heard about it here on this week in startups. So I think there's a
pretty easy, you know, break even. I think the problem here is, is there a hundred million in
revenue business? But you don't have to answer that lawn immediately as a company. If you're
triangulating and you're following energy, this sounds a little loopy-dupy, but if you know there's
something happening in a certain area, there's energy there, there's people, they're engaging,
You can go to that area and increase the engagement, learn,
and all an angel investor or a seed fund has to know is,
we're putting in a million dollars at a $10 million valuation.
We know this can get to a million to $10 million in revenue.
So if it gets to that level, we have some sort of backstop on our investment.
Now, if you were going to put in $10 million,
you would need to be much more thoughtful about, okay,
if we're giving these guys, gals, $10 million for,
I don't know, 15% of the company,
and it's a 50, 60, 70 million dollar valuation
and you have to 10 extra money.
Now you've got a bigger boge.
You've got to get to 500 million in valuation for the company,
750 million to get a return for your investors.
That's reasonable.
And you want to see more evidence of a sustainable
and what we call in the venture land
the quality of the revenue
and the durability of the revenue.
A lot of people are sampling.
So when you look at like a face swap company
or you look at
lovable AI, very cool,
you look at
you know, chat GPT, SORA,
any of these
AI companies, people will sample
they'll spend 20 bucks on them
like they did, you know, maybe they
they hear a show on Peacock.
Well, I've got to listen, watch this 1923 or 28
or whatever it is, you know?
Paramount Plus.
Yeah, Paramount Plus.
So that's whatever it is.
I mean, I'm not.
No, you're fine.
I'm sorry. Lawn has that on lock.
The Yellowstone spinster on Paramount Plus, folks.
Oh, okay.
So am I going to come out of?
And then do I keep my Paramount Plus?
So that would be the question with a higher investment amount.
And this is like the beauty of capitalism in the United States and the venture industrial
complex has built a milestone based investing process.
You know, people like our founder university, we offer people their first 25K check at a million
dollar valuation if they're doing like a project and they want to incorporate because they want to
see if the project, you know, like a side hustle can become something. Then you have accelerators.
Why combating ourselves, tech stars? 125K. Okay, taking a, that's five times as much money.
Okay, then a seed fund, $250,500K, maybe a million. That would be a pre-seed fund. A seed fund,
maybe $500K check, a million dollar check and Series A funds. But each step along that way,
You have to have answered some questions.
Here, you don't really need to answer too much to make a seed investment.
Here's my question, though, Jason.
Does this company need to go the traditional venture capital route?
We've seen a lot of AI startups grow very, very quickly, accreating revenue.
Yes, there are some questions about durability, but cash in the door much faster and at a higher level
than we've seen in prior generations of startups, especially SaaS.
So for Ella Marina, which is now going to be its own company, why not just raise $2 million
dollars from their community. They have a lot of very wealthy users, I'm sure. So just equity,
crowd fund it, sort out the business model, and then maybe raise traditional venture capital.
Sure. Showing some revenue, putting some numbers on the board to show that the community
will take money out of their pocket. If they have a million monthly visitors, I don't know
if that's unique. I'm going to guess it's unique. So it's not visits. It's monthly visit tours.
Like that's important. That's not 100,000 people coming 10 times. It's a million unique people coming
X number of times. How about you just put a chart and you show, you tell everybody who's doing a query there that all your queries are available in slash VIP. And if you have slash VIP, you can watch the live feed. So you have the river concept that Dave Weiner came up with. The creator of, the creator of RSS came up with a concept of a news river. You can see that Tech meme has Techmeem.com slash river. The idea was to put slash river on any website.
and just see the information flowing by.
If you had a Notion instance,
notion.com slash river would be the idea.
Let's do a river and then charge $100 a month for it
or $1,000 a year or $500 a year,
come up with like a pretty good deal
and show you can get 100 or 500 people to pay for that feed.
And then anybody who's using the site just has the thing.
Hey, all searches are available to our, you know, subscribers.
That would be a great way to start a simple revenue experiment.
And we call that a revenue experiment.
not necessarily the final product.
I think, Lon, this should be a good time to bring up the fact that we have an update
to the story we talked about on Wednesday, sticking close to AI revenue.
We talked at the end of the Wednesday show, Jason and I, that Open AI is considering buying
Winsurf, the company previously known as Codium.
We had them back on the show towards the end of last year.
We'll have a link to that in the show notes.
But Jason, as it turns out, Open AI first went over and talked to Cursor, which is the product
built by Ennisphere, but people just call it cursor, which is the company that we've discussed
on the show grew from 100 million ARR to 200 million ARR in something like a quarter or three
months earlier this year. And it seems that that deal just never really came together.
So my hypothesis here, as we think about, you know, why would they go to cursor first?
Well, market leader and then why windsurf?
Well, it's cheaper and smaller.
But it's interesting that they are kind of seemingly agnostic about which one of these
companies they pick up.
And my thought there is that this is all about the data these companies generate if you want
to build the best AI models for anything involved.
development work, you want to have a stream, a feed, a river perhaps, of information coming in on
usage. So I can kind of see why they're flexible on which one they buy. Also, Jason, it's going to be
a lot cheaper to buy windsurf than cursor. What do you think? You know, I guess there's a couple
of different ways to look at this. They probably did a study of the space and they said,
it's worth buying either the number one, number two, or number three player. So let's open up
discussions with those folks and we'll just sequentially go through them. When a market is
emerging and you're a lead player like chat GPT and Open AI is you have something you could
offer them, which is, hey, you might be number two or number three. With our audience, if we bundle
you in, we can dump another 10 to 100 million users into your product and you'll be the number one
product. And you'll have more access to data and you'll have more access to servers. So the number
one player might want to be, hey, you know what, we should stay independent because, you know,
why would we sell if we can, you know, take on and we're the category leader. And the VCs will be
like, you're the category leader. There's no way you should sell now. If the reason to sell a company
like Cursor would be it stops growing, the founders don't want to run it anymore. They want to cash out,
you know, and they're pushing the issue. And then it would be up to the VCs to say to the
cursor founders, okay, I know you want to sell. How about we give you $100 million in
liquidity each for the three founders? You could sell your shares, we'll buy them. You know,
which is what typically happens in these situations. They're stock rich, cash poor. The founders
make an economic decision. And in the old days, the economic decision was often to sell.
So when Instagram sold, Sequoia had just put in money at, I think, a $500 million valuation,
and they sold for a billion. And Sequoia was a...
extremely upset that they did this, right, that Kevin Sistram sold. They really wanted him to go for
the gold. And I think they doubled their money in 90 days, was the story. They put the money in.
Zuckerberg was like, oh my God, Sequoia is in this thing. We got to buy it before it goes there.
So they just said, we'll double it. Very hard to walk away from a billion dollar sale. But if they had,
they would have a $250 billion asset right now. They should have gone for the gold. They were actually
the competitor to the viable competitor to Facebook.
So Facebook made the right trade there.
And what is Sam buying here?
He's going to buy a team that's motivated and focused on this product that can hit the
ground running.
He's buying a customer base.
And then maybe, you know, to an extent, a brand.
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what they would call intangible values.
So those are the three things you're typically buying.
I would suspect here it's the team and the customer base, you know, giving them a nice head start.
And he doesn't have to take people on other chat GPT products and say, hey, focus on just developers.
They're already over there.
So which is what Zuckerberg and Google did.
Google had a product, Google video.
They were pushing pretty hard.
Oh, yeah.
Trying to get people to start uploading video.
People forget there was a video tab and you could upload videos to Google.
Bless their hearts.
Bless their hearts.
It was never good.
It was so bad.
They also did Google Plus, right?
They wanted to have a social network, so they kind of integrated Google Plus, and they tried both of those things.
Wave, too, Google Wave.
Google Wave was an incredible product that they should never have canceled.
I liked Google Wave, yeah.
I want to add a note here to the things that OpenA. is buying, because this I screen shows, I think, why there's another element here.
So here is a case study from Anthropic and Arch OpenAI rival discussing how cool it is that Codium's Windsurf IDE, their developer tool,
use Claude.
Well, if you're open AI and you would love to, I don't know,
take away some revenue from your smaller competitor.
I can also see that fitting into the overall strategic focus.
That's a great insight.
Sure, if they were, it would be like if, I don't know,
you were spending a lot of money,
your YouTube, you're spending a bunch of money on AWS,
and Azure buys YouTube and moves the storage and the transport all the way over there.
Yeah, you could be winning that deal too.
The bigger picture is Eminet's back.
And chat GPT has a big chip stack, and they're willing to use it to buy other competitors.
Where's XAI?
Where's Claude?
Where's Google?
Google can't buy stuff.
They've got so much antitrust adjudice, the firm that they're going to constantly be in antitrust land.
So buying is like, why are we going to buy stuff?
They're just going to put more heat and microscope on our company.
That's the challenge.
That's why Google should probably spend.
out a couple of assets.
XAI is interesting because they have that $100 billion roughly valuation after the
XXAI combination and they have pretty much a murderer's row of financial backers behind
the two companies that are now joined.
And what if you put it with, what if you put it with Tesla?
What if the next shoe to drop?
I don't have inside information.
This XAI becomes part of Tesla.
Now you've got a public currency and you have three different businesses living, five different
businesses living under one roof.
You've got the language model.
You've got the social network.
You've got Optimus, the robot.
You have EVs, electric vehicles.
You have battery and solar.
I'll put those together, energy.
And then you have full self-driving.
So you've got like arguably six businesses all with AI as the fundamental foundation to them.
Now, Tesla can go out and start buying things because they have a public currents already.
If you take open AI's money in the form of their stock, it's liquid.
so you're kind of trapped.
And the people with public currency,
and then if,
I don't know if Tesla,
yeah, Tesla should be under a trillion dollars right now.
It's,
$750.
They're just,
you know,
when you hit the trillion dollar mark,
I think regulators are rightfully wary
of how powerful the company is.
When you're under a trillion,
think they might be like,
okay, yeah,
that's a mid-sized company,
as crazy as it sounds.
So I think we'll see a lot of these pickups.
Also,
you know,
these are high valuation,
companies, you could see investors getting skittish that, hey, maybe cursor could get wiped out if
Microsoft decides co-pilots free, you know, or if XAI or Apple or Google decides to put a product
out there and undercut them and include it and bundle it inside of Microsoft Office, Google Office.
The bundling of AI is inevitable. And I think consumer AI will be a free product. I don't believe
consumers are going to pay for it. I think it's going to be a largely free
product in the next year or two. I think this is interesting, too, going back, as I so often do,
due to the early sort of AI skepticism and that's still raging on places like Blue Sky,
one of the things you heard all the time, or still do in some cases, is like, well, but all these
AI companies, these models, they're building increasingly sophisticated models, but there's
no product. Like, what do they sell you? What is like the thing everybody wants to have that you need
AI for? And I think we're now starting to see the answer. It's like, well, those companies don't even
necessarily have to build that stuff. They just wait for companies to build an application layer
on top of their models and then scoop up the best ones. And I mean, I think that's inevitably
what's going to start happening. And it's super good for startups because people have been talking
about where will the value accrue in the current AI rush. Will it accrue at the ad model layer,
the anthropics, the open AIs, or at the application layer, one step above. Now, earlier, the device layer.
Oh, no, that's a pretty good point, actually.
Platform layer. Don't forget Windows. Don't forget Android.
and don't forget MacOS or iOS.
I think we could see some of those platforms
just run the table.
All right.
Next up, Jason,
we have something that we thought you were going to love.
Here is a tweet from a couple of friends
who built a very cheap 3D printed drone
that could calculate its cordon.
It's not using GPS,
but instead they were using a camera plus Google Maps.
A very cool hack.
And the story here is,
these three guys did this and then went their separate ways.
It was a hackathon.
Their tweet went insanely viral.
They decided to instead build a company.
Then they went through, oh, sorry, you're a little bit late.
Then they went through YS.
Then they raised the money.
And so now these three guys are building a company called Theseus, which just raised
$4.3 million.
Okay.
So the drone is $500.
It navigates without having an internet connection.
It still needs to have internet because it's using its own system to do that, but it's not
using the global positioning system.
And the issue here is that GPS systems.
and there are several around the world,
are in war zones just 100% jam.
They said that within 100 kilometers
of the front line in Ukraine,
GPS just doesn't work.
So if you use it,
it still has an internet connection on it somehow,
like a 5G connection or something.
That's my guess.
Okay.
So it's got some internet connection on it.
And then it uses the visual field
and correlates that.
What a satellite image,
it correlates that as its navigation.
It has,
I mean,
it would be even better if the thing, if you knew it was going to operate in a certain theater,
Ukraine, you know, into Russia, you could have all of those maps across many different data
providers on a thumb drive, on an Arduino. If it's visually able to make its best guess as to
where it is from its starting point and visually from the air, wow, it wouldn't, it would be totally
independent of any internet connection. So that actually is super interesting. And I think those are the
things that a lot of the legality around using robots and warfare, I forgot what the law is, but there
were some laws around this that had emerged, just like there's chemical warfare, rules. I think
there were rules about autonomy and robots. You can be certain that many countries have the
capability to send a robot out without an internet connection and just be able to identify
a person of a certain ethnicity, a certain clothing type, you know, a uniform and just
murder them, uh, and eliminate them. So that, that's the really scary, dangerous part is the
robocop sort of nature of what's coming. What kind of mistakes could be made, right? Um,
the UN office for disarmament affairs calls these laws. Let's
autonomous weapons systems, but does note that there's not really one hard definition for them
and not a lot of, I think, strong legal rules unlike with say mustard glass or chlorine gas,
as we learned in World War I. I'll just say that we've talked so much on the show about the
importance of drones in future warfare. We also talked about electronic warfare, anti-drone
jamming and so forth. Well, here is the way around that, Jason, towards a more drone-heavy
future, it does actually make me sleep a little better at night because there was
concerned that if there's ever a hot war between China and the U.S., that all the GPS and
similar satellites would just get yoinked from orbit by various methods.
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One more data point on this company before we move on.
I went and pulled just the YAC historical list of companies they've invested in.
And in the last couple of batches since winter 24, Jason, 43 known drone companies in that list.
That's quite a lot.
And I think that's probably indicative of venture interest in general.
I'm just interested to see what happens to all those bets in a trade war environment
when there's an effective trade embargo on China, which was the source for quite a lot of drone parts
and similar technologies.
So it's going to be interesting to see how Theseus and other companies like it survive, thrive in the changing world.
It's, as we learned on Wednesday, a tough time out there.
Okay.
Let's keep going.
All right.
So we're calling this segment.
Tips from the trenches.
We've got, you know, founders, experts, insiders giving you very specific, granular, helpful advice, instructions, tips about various sort of topics facing the startup founder today.
So we had the other day at Founder University, we had Scott Baer, the director of strategy for
Lunar, I think I'm saying that correctly.
He gave us an amazing presentation about the basics of branding and design for new founders.
And so I've got little summaries, the first segment here, the difference between your brand
and the concept of branding.
So let's take a look at that first click.
The two definitions I like to use to break this apart is brand, which is someone's gut
feeling about your company or service. It's what they say it is influenced by
multiple experiences over time. Whereas branding is the unending act of perception
design. And so like Jason was saying, design is really, really important and I,
you could have the most beautifully designed whatever product, web page, anything. And
if it's misaligned with your target audience, it's gonna fall flat. And so being
able to be perceived correctly by your target audience is critical. And so
that's where branding should constantly be a double-sided conversation of you're
speaking something, you're seeing how it's been responded to and you're adjusting. Now, the two
most important words that I like to go back to with branding are differentiation and
consistency. So you got to find out what is that angle that we have that's different
from everybody else and then how do we go double down on that and you have to say the same
thing over and over and over because even launch does that. So launch, if they started going into a
completely different direction, then they start mudding the waters and it's confusing where you have to
say the same thing over and over to wear like liquid death. By her to say liquid death, you know what
they do because they've been saying the same thing for a while. If you were to, you know, put Nike in here,
you know, just do it. Ironic brand. But they do branding constantly. I am constantly seeing
different Nike, you know, sub-brands, Nike running, Nike yoga, Nike basketball, Nike lounge.
where they're constantly building on the brand promise, which is to just do it, to just get out
there and work out and it manifests itself in different ways. What I like about this is repeating
yourself over and over again. People assume that people understand what you do here at this
week in startups, right? We cover the news in technology and how to build companies, right?
Like over and over again, we have to tell people like, hey, when you listen to the show,
We're going to talk about what's happening in technology, and then we're going to talk about building
startups. That's it. And Founder Fridays, four founders by founders. I keep saying that over and over again.
Four founders by founders. Founder University, start a company. That's it. Just start a company with two or three of your friends. Start a
company with two or three of your friends. Start a company with two or three of your friends. And the reason we
keep saying two or three of your friends is we like to invest in teams. We don't like to invest in solo founders.
so we're trying to tell people, hey, get two or three your friends and build a startup.
And we'll help teach you how to do that.
So this is super important to start thinking about early on.
I mean, I noticed this a lot when we started doing the inside streaming newsletter.
I felt like I was talking about it constantly to the point that everybody's going to get
tired of following me on social media because every day I'm like, hey, I got a newsletter.
Jacob, I talked about this in my newsletter.
And when I would actually talk to other people, every time they would be like, you have a
newsletter?
Why don't you ever talk about it?
Why haven't I heard anything about this?
And I'm out there.
I felt like I was doing it every day.
So you're too close.
Whatever you're working on, you're too close to it.
Talk about it more than you are because people still don't know.
That would be my advice.
And Twitter, when you live in the Twitterverse, you assume that you're reaching everybody.
The Twitterverse is like 15% of society.
That's why you have to master.
Facebook, Reddit.
There's other places online people hang out.
And then there's the real world.
Man, so many startups never go.
go operate in the real world and touch grass. I think touching grass with your brand, super important.
When I started Silicon Alley Reporter, I used to wear a Silicon Allie Reporter t-shirt every day of my life.
Literally every day of my life, I had a Silicon Raleigh Reporter thing, and they'd say, what's that?
What's Silicon Alley Reporter? And I gave the T-shirts out constantly. So think about branding.
I think really getting into the real world is so crucial. The real-world activation startups never do
these, but there's a place where all the lawyers are going. There's a place that all the accountants go.
I don't, I don't necessarily know where that is. I don't know what conference it is. I don't know
what bar it is. Yeah, I don't want to go to the accountants thing, but I'm sure it exists.
Maybe not for me, but there is a place where accountants right now are talking about accounting stuff.
It's up to you to go find those people, and you just have to ask them when you do your
customer interviews, where they hang out. Let's move on. Part two. So this, Scott,
presents four different questions that he thinks founders should ask themselves in order to really
dig into understanding what their offering is, what their brand is, and how they should be
communicating with the public. Let's take a look at that clip. So first, why are you motivated
to build this company? And I would recommend everybody answer these questions. And I'll
share this slide deck afterwards. But this one will go back to when you're tired, when you have
that second job when you don't want to do it, when you cannot find product market fit,
why are you motivated to keep building? And next, what does Apple Eever After look like for your
customers using your product? This is my favorite one. And it's because it's a vision that is so
clear that people can see it. My favorite example of this is Microsoft's old vision statement,
which is a computer on every desktop and every home. And what that gave is the engineers to understand,
well, I know how big my desk is.
And we have to fit that entire component that big.
So you give constraints, which is really good.
And you have to be able to give that really clear picture.
Here I'm using an example of, you know, Elon Musk always talking about going to Mars.
They've created renderings of what that could look like.
So it's a very clear scene of what that actually looks like and we can build towards
that.
So is your vision statement.
Next is your mission.
So vision and mission often get confused for each other.
I found the mission is the how.
So how are you going to make this vision become a reality?
So this is a little more tactical.
So we are going to do this, make this vision become real,
by and then filling in the blank of those pieces.
These are also really helpful frameworks for your team
to just get aligned to be of multiple people that are building.
It's helpful to go back to your North Star
of what you're actually trying to accomplish.
Your values.
So what actions are rewarded or disciplined are typically what I found that values work best.
And I don't know if anybody's ever been in a corporate environment where they have the values on the wall and it's like integrity or all these things.
And then you're like, I just saw that person steal and nobody did anything about it.
And that shows you that it didn't really mean anything.
And so for me, if for one of our values is be a great partner.
And so that means I've said, here's the value.
and for me, my promise is I will respond with an X amount of time.
Or if I realize that we're going to be late,
I'm going to be the first one to speak up.
I think setting a culture is another way to say that last one is,
you know, like how do we accomplish the mission?
What are the characteristics here?
You know, I think you guys would agree on a podcast like this.
I'm like, details matter.
I always say details matter to people.
You do.
Details matter.
What?
I've been saying that for my entire career.
And the reason I think details matter,
and effort and hard work matter.
These things,
you can be very proud of what you've produced,
whether it succeeds or it fails,
if you have craftsmanship
and you really focus on those details.
We've worked on the details
for this very podcast that you're watching,
details around, you know,
wardrobe, details around sound,
details around lighting.
And if you work on details,
one of the things I found,
just as a culture,
is then when you,
when you take on a new project or you're doing some new effort, everybody just brings that mentality.
What details matter in this? How do we make it better? And they're empowered to think,
hmm, we have this new idea. We're executing it. How do we make it just a little bit better in 10
different ways? If you make 10 aspects of a product 10% better, it's twice as good.
I'm doing that right now with the founder university. I became personally engaged in it.
looking at every detail, because if the leader doesn't do that, then everybody else just does
what we did last time. That's what we always do. I'm always trying to break people out of,
well, that's the way we do it here, and say, well, how can it just be a little bit better?
And bring that attitude to everything. So we were doing as a silly, stupid example, when we do
founder university, on Thursdays, we have breakout sessions. And they were randomly,
breaking people out into rooms using this cool feature on Zoom,
where you can just create breakout rooms.
How many people per breakout room, you break it out.
And I was like, that's interesting.
It's random.
It's exciting.
It's easy.
You just press a button.
And then I was like, you know what?
I don't have my team engaged with the founding of university teams.
So how about we do this?
Everybody does a pod of 30 of the companies in the program.
And every Thursday, you meet with your pod.
So you get some consistency.
You build some relationship.
that's actually better for founder.
And they have one person at our firm
who they build a relationship with
as opposed to like a thin relationship
with three or four people at the firm.
We did it last night
in this new format I came up with
and I think this is cohort 10 or 11.
10.
10.
And I mean, it was dramatic
the feedback
and how much better it was.
Yeah, last night, Lon, you did one of the pods.
Yeah, no, I ran a pod.
I was very worried people were going to be like,
Lon, I'm migrating my cloud infrastructure.
I have some API questions, but that did not happen, thankfully.
It was great.
It was great.
And I think the founders really did appreciate just not even the me of it, but just having a smaller group.
Like they got to know one another by name.
They got to sort of talk about one another's companies specifically.
A lot of them had been sort of they were going through sort of similar parts of the process
and could relate to one another on that level.
And their conversations you couldn't have possibly had in a big room with a hundred
150 people that you need that breakout room of 10 to 12.
And then people can sort of, it's a little more interpersonal.
So yeah, I thought it worked great.
You know what this reminds me of?
The incrementally improving your outputting your work and your project,
reminds me that Mark Andreessen clip you had the other day long when he was talking
about Steve Jobs and his approach to work.
And that, what was the quote?
Like he only would tolerate first class work.
Right.
Yeah.
You have to be shooting high.
Yeah.
If you're not, if you weren't like a first class producer or something like,
If you weren't like really true, giving it 100% every day, he just wasn't, he wasn't interested
in having non-high performers.
Yes.
And he executed on that pretty well.
Any other, any notes from these questions that stood out to you, gentlemen, one of the
questions?
I really like that Scott was focused on, like, I like the phrase happily ever after.
I think so often the focus is on that one interaction.
I want to like sell you the thing.
I want you to use the app or download the app even.
Like, I feel like I work for a lot of companies where that's the thing.
It's like we just want people to download the app
and then we want those numbers to go up
and then we're fine.
And I like the focus on,
we don't just want you to download it.
We don't just want you to try it.
We want it to work and then it has in some way,
in some way, right.
In some way it has improved your life,
even incrementally.
And now you have, you're in a new situation.
Do that for each of you do it for this weekend start.
What should the outcome?
What should heavily,
happily ever after it be
after people watch this episode, Alex.
Okay.
I think happily ever after for viewers of this begin startups is an increasing percentage of the viewership starting companies.
Great. Awesome. I like it. What do you got long? Yeah. I mean, I think that's what I was going to say is it overall. Our goal is to give you a lot more confidence. Whatever you're, if you're working for a startup, if you're starting a company, if you're investing in a company, to feel like you've learned something from this community, you have that extra confidence that I've listened to these guys. I've heard all of these examples. I can do this myself.
Well, I just did vision, you just did mission per the framework.
Yeah, that's true.
That's true.
We did, yeah.
I love the outcome that people after they watch this are more informed.
They will make better decisions, right, in their personal life and their professional life,
and even a little entertained along the way.
So they had some enjoyment.
After it, they say, hey, that was kind of fun.
I like a little fun in it.
You know, I like those guys at camaraderie.
So I like this concept.
of laugh and learn, laugh and learn.
So, Lon, I want to get more cold opens
and funny bits going on here on the show as well.
You surprise me with some bits.
I get some bits going to get that creative juices fun.
I also like the three of us
and the team to have fun doing it.
I'm always trying to, you know,
if you can have fun and combined with that,
you're doing great work,
I like that, like a little levity
while you're doing your best work.
I think, you know,
one of the things Steve Jobs did
is, and you know, I knew Steve and people who worked for him and I'd met him a bunch of times.
There's a lot of, like, projection that goes into a larger than life personality.
But the truth was, he hired really well.
So if you were there, you were qualified to do the job.
Now, did you do your best work or not at any given moment?
That's when he would let you know if he thought, this was your best work.
And I always took a note on that.
I will tell people just very, you know,
matter of factly, this isn't great work. This is okay work. This is good work. It's not really
great work. Let's go a little faster. And then I'll compare it to them, especially in the day of
AI. By the way, your work product is something that AI would have produced. You need to look at
what AI can do today and maybe do it a little better. And so that candidness with a little bit of fun,
you know, and hey, let's try to just do a little better each day at whatever we
we do. I find that is more exciting for me to come to work. Anyway, this is a great framework.
It's a great talk. Scott, I just want to personally thank you for doing it. I'd like to have Scott
come on the pod. And he does a really fun thing where he, uh, I, people, I call it Savage My Startup,
where people tell me their startup idea and I just give them like brutally candid. I kind of do
that privately now in small groups because founders like it, but some people find you a little
disturbing. But he does a really good thing where he kind of looks at people's web pages and tries to
improve them in real time and talks about what he likes about them, what he doesn't. I think a live
clinic like that where we line up 10 audience members, they show their product, or we just pick 10
and we said, what do you think? How would you improve these? And we just pick 10 high profile ones.
Yeah. I think the cool thing about what he does too is that he goes in totally cold, which is not
an experience. Like a lot of the time when you're showing somebody your website, you've already
kind of set it up for them like, okay, so here's what we're trying to do. It's a marketplace.
The preamble. Right. And he goes in and he's just pulling it up and just in real time trying to
figure out what do you do? What are you selling me based only on your website? And it is a novel
approach. And I think a lot of the people watching learned a lot from that because sometimes
you would show up and even like, I don't know what this is. Like I, that's something having to do with
AI. It's something having to do with, you know, call centers, but I don't know what you're selling.
Do you know the start date of Founding University cohort 11 yet? Do we have that date?
I don't know how bad, but let me look it up. Yeah, Founder.com.
It's the website where you can apply. It says summer 2025 is all I see.
So I'll probably start in August or something or July. Right now it's April. Yeah. So we're going to
have this as part of the innovation, like a week in person. We're going to run people through like a very
intense program. You have to take a week off, come to that, or you can do the virtual and kind of
self-paced thing. But if you want to be part of the next Founder University, which will have
100 teams in person working really hard for a week, which would be two or three hundred people,
it's going to be quite exciting. I might limit it to 50, but I'd like y'all to consider coming.
You need to have two or three people on your team who are all builders or capable of building
stuff and you want to have product velocity. Those are the tips for getting into founder.
Dot University. Okay. And we have one more design
clip or are we good? Well, we got two more if you want to watch it both.
Oh, okay. Great. I can pick one. All right. So part three, this was Scott's approach to
understanding logos in terms of logo design, ideal aspects of your logo. And he also talks,
I thought this was really fascinating. A little bit about color theory and how to pick the right
color for your logo. Oh, I love color. There you. This was really a thing.
fascinating to be. Let's take a look, Alex, if we have that pulled up. Here's a quick comparison.
I did a search on, I think, Fiverr or 99 designs for best logos. This was on the left side,
and then on the right side, you'll see maybe a few companies that you recognize. There is a
framework for this. So on the left side, there's, I find that a lot of founders I work with when
we're doing logo design, they want to fit everything that, all the meaning of their company
into a single mark, which is very challenging to do. And I would actually argue is not
usually the best decision to do anyway.
And on the right side is more,
your logo should be more of an identifier
versus an explanation.
And you'll find that you're able to get much smaller.
And in a world where 50,
or half of all internet browsing is done on mobile devices,
having some sort of icon or symbol is critical nowadays.
So there needs to be some sort of element there.
And also you'll see colors.
I would stick to one, maybe two
for your brand to be known as.
When I say, what is the color of Target?
Really, like, everybody would know it.
Actually, tell me, what is Target's color?
Red.
Red.
Everybody was yellow.
Red.
What about Chase Bank?
Blue, safe, stable.
What about, how about, anyway, we can keep going.
But you get it really quick.
And so when you see it, your brain reads color much faster than it reads words.
And so you're giving a feeling to somebody right away.
Yeah.
The kind of framework that we use
I want to ask about the detox
is we want to make sure it scales.
So again, it has to go down to like whatever
Fabicon is 35 pixels high to your logo.
A Fabicon is the tab in your browser tab.
It's usually a good idea to start with.
And then being able to scale out.
Now what about color?
So quick crash course on color is your color does mean a lot.
So the color red will actually increase your heart rate
when you see it.
Whereas blue is on the other end of the spectrum.
will cool, will slow you down it and it brings a sense of calmness and builds trust.
Ability.
Like,
so that's why you'll see most financial.
Banking is blue.
And health.
Yeah,
he says health care.
To hospitals.
Yeah.
Orange is energy.
Orange is playful.
I love orange and blue.
That's why the launch logo is always orange and blue is our colors.
Purple is the one that's really fascinating to me because you would think Taco
Bell would be like a red like that.
Like,
Purple is a, it's an odd one.
That's odd and quirky in my mind.
That's why Yahoo used it, etc.
It's a quirky color.
Green is, I think.
Nature, organic, like whole foods being green, yes.
Yellow, I don't understand who uses yellow.
Yellow is a very weird color.
McDonald's they've got on their Hertz, Renekar is yellow.
Hosted those brands.
Yeah, I don't like them either.
Yeah.
You just mentioned brands and logos I don't like.
So he makes, these are like little blocking and tackling tactics that you really got to get right.
And, you know, people like to do a logo in one.
When people think about logo construction, they think about it in one medium.
I'm looking at my web page.
I'm looking at my bottle of beer.
And what he's explaining here is that real logo architecture and design is thinking about it holistically across.
all possible medium. So when I do logo design, and I've done really good ones in the past,
the Mahalo logo was award winning, the inside logo was award winning, the launch logo was award winning.
Just people really love those. And the guy I used for Mahalo, which was the one I was most proud of,
Jonathan Hicks, I believe is his name. And this was like one of the most talented logo designers.
And he charged, you know, this is 15, 20 years ago. He charged, yeah, there's the Mahalo logo.
it was stunning.
And that was a variation on it.
There were other ones without the beta in it,
but he made this beautiful plume era that we could use.
The Mahalo was, you know, Hawaiian playful.
And man, it worked everywhere.
Jonathan Hicks.
And then that's when we had to learn anything to it,
when we had some educational content.
Yeah, yeah.
I remember that.
We debated learn everything or learn anything.
And we were just way ahead of our time.
And we thought about using AI to a machine learning
to try to accomplish some of the tests,
but it didn't work.
It wasn't ready for human power.
It wasn't ready.
So Mahalo today would have been pretty amazing.
Putting it aside,
I liked to get a mug,
a business card,
stationary,
a website,
a mobile website,
an app logo icon,
the Favacan,
which is a little tag.
And if you try to,
if you saw that plumera
in any of those locations
without the word Mahalo,
it was very evocative.
You would think Mahalo.
And I did the same thing with inside, which was lowercase with brackets.
And the inside logo of brackets on either side is the brackets are what in an editorial context, as you know, Alex, your editor might put in there.
And you know the editor, like literally in the New York Times.
If you see brackets or some of these publications, the editor's notes would go in the brackets.
So I was like, okay, that's a real insider pull.
Put the brackets on either side.
Make it lowercase.
kind of like typewritery, old school, like gritty editor.
You're inside, you know, with an insider.
And I love the movie The Insider.
So having some thoughtful things about it, why you're building it,
what you want to evoke,
want it with Mahalo to evoke a playful, warm place,
feminine and masculine, you know, all at the same time.
So I just love doing this.
It gave us a theme, too.
We played around a lot with the Hawaiian tropical theme.
Like when we did Mahalo Daily,
and had that sort of like teaky torch opening.
It was so much fun.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Scott Bayer and the name of his firm, again, he's got a design firm.
We'll put it in the show notes.
If you need a designer, he's great.
He's director of strategy for L-U-N-O-U-R, L-U-R, L-U-R.
Oh, you are, Lunar.
And so if you have a really great talk you want to give to our founders
and you really want to spend time with them
and donate a couple of hours of your time to our founders of Found University or the
accelerator, we'll blow you up here and hopefully get you a couple of customers.
if you really work hard.
Yeah, he was great.
He did do that.
In real time, he pulled up a lot of our founder you companies and he just like, you know,
ripped them apart.
But in a, in a constructive and fun way, and people loved it.
They were lining up to send him their websites.
They were, they were like, roast me.
So here's our final segment with him.
It's just some great, some principles for designing great looking websites, apps and products.
All right, let's go.
So first is start what feels like too much white space.
on the left side you'll see that everything is equally spaced
or on the right side you'll see that it's grouped
people scan in general and so you want to make your product scanable
and also you'll see their space in between
and what's helpful about this is it's the way we talk
so I will say something a pause take a breath
and then move on the next thing your product should also feel like that
and then simplify where possible
so on the left side it might be a little small
I can see everybody's squinting, so I might need to increase this.
It says name and it puts her name, job title, puts her job title,
where if you're in the product every single day, you can see on the right side,
it just has her name, her title, her email.
So if you go through your product, again, make it faster.
Make everything that go, try to reduce as many clicks as much reading as possible
in anything that you build.
Next is prioritized values.
On the left side, if I were to say, what do you see first?
Most everybody says heart rate.
We're on the right side, you see the 82 BPM, which is really what you want to see.
If a nurse is looking over at a unit, I want to save her a quarter of a second just by getting her what she needs faster.
This is so important.
She is, yeah.
Clear primary action.
Every time I've asked this, what's the thing?
The first thing you see is this big red delete button.
We're on the right side.
It says publish.
Here's a massive principle I have in product design, which is make your product more sticky and valuable.
So I never want to visually promote something that deteriorates my product.
And so you'll see there's different button states here on the right side.
And we'll get into the next one, which is a filled primary, a secondary kind of faded background.
And then the delete is this link style.
So it's really subdued.
So as I go through anybody's product or when I design products, I really like to have one primary filled button on the page.
just because I almost want you to like
change everything on your text to a different language
and for you to try to figure out what to click
because the primary buttons are so clear.
I like it.
That guy is absolutely fantastic.
Also, I want him to like narrate to me at night
because I feel like his voice is very calming.
Yeah.
It's a soothing talk, yeah.
I agree.
These are just great simple design principles
that you probably wouldn't have been exposed to
naturally and he presents them in a very concise way.
So thanks again to our friend Scott.
if you would like to come to Founder University,
founder. University.
And what I'd like to do, Lon, is if you could deputize somebody on the team
to redo the Founder University website,
that would be fun too.
As a project internally, we maybe take his advice on it.
The thing I really love is never-ending scrolling pages on mobile.
I notice some people, course people, you know, people who do courses,
they do it.
So here, like turn your startup ideas.
into a reality.
Apply now, learn more.
Yeah, I feel like he would say that text under turned your startup into a reality.
Too much too small.
Way too much.
Yeah.
I feel like that would be the Scott take on that.
Yeah.
And what we should do is you should scroll up and then get those details.
We invest, you know, 125%, you know, 25K investment for.
Right.
Shorter, clearer.
Puntier.
Punchier.
Yeah.
So lots of work to do here.
And again, we're looking at the desktop.
We always want to look at mobile first because about 70% of people experience your website on mobile.
I do feel like color we're doing good.
He said like black and white is very like respectable, like, you know, conservative, like trustworthy, like Apple is, you know, black and white.
I like orange for the energy in black and white, you know, night mode.
All right.
This has been another episode of this weekend startups.
Follow X.com slash lawns, L-O-N-S.
X.com slash Alex.
I'm X.com slash Jason.
I'm also Instagram.com slash Jason.
And you can follow the show.
Just type in This Week in Startups.
It's typically TWI Startups.
And go ahead and post a comment or like some of the shorts we're doing.
We're trying to wake up those.
We have a This Week in Startups clip channel on YouTube.
If you can go follow it, that would be helpful if you're an OG.
And Founder Fridays is for Founders by Founders.
Founder Fridays.
T-E-C-H.
That tech from the dot-tech domains, which are really cool.
Domain.
Founder Fridays
where you get together
with a pod
of six other founders
and every first Friday
of the month,
you get together
and you share
learnings together.
We'll see you all next time.
Bye-bye.
Bye.
