This Week in Startups - Sunday VC School: valuation vs. traction matrix + Climate: New Energy Nexus CEO Danny Kennedy | E1356
Episode Date: January 9, 2022Welcome to our new Sunday show. Each episode will have two segments, Sunday VC School and Climate startups. First, Jason and Molly discuss early-stage investing including, Jason's valuation vs. tracti...on matrix (1:44) and developing a BS detector (23:03). Then Jason introduces Molly's new climate segment (27:15) and then Molly interviews New Energy Nexus CEO Danny Kennedy (33:38). They discuss what Danny looks for in clean energy investments(37:03) and more! Valuation vs. Traction Matrix: https://calacanis.com/2019/03/30/the-valuation-vs-traction-matrix (00:00) Jason intros the show (01:44) Sunday VC School - Assessing a minimum viable product (04:24) Valuation vs. Traction Matrix - https://calacanis.com/2019/03/30/the-valuation-vs-traction-matrix (12:04) Odoo - Get your first app free and a $1000 credit at https://odoo.com/twist (13:17) Getting a good price for a reasonable traction (21:39) Superside - Go to https://superside.com/twist to get $3000 or more in credits when you sign up for an annual subscription (23:03) Why VCs need to trust their BS detector (27:15) Jason and Molly introduce Molly's new climate segment (31:40) Notion - Go to https://Notion.so and use promo code TWIST to get $250 off its annual team plan (33:38) Molly interviews Danny Kennedy, New Energy Nexus CEO (37:03) What Danny looks for in clean energy investments (44:13) What holds people back from investing in climate tech startups (55:46) Hardware vs. software for climate investing Check out New Energy Nexus: https://www.newenergynexus.com FOLLOW Danny: https://twitter.com/dannyksfun FOLLOW Jason: https://linktr.ee/calacanis FOLLOW Molly: https://twitter.com/mollywood
Transcript
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Hey everybody, hey everybody. It's the Sunday show. Yes, our first Sunday show. And we're calling these Sustainable Sunday episodes two different parts every Sunday for you. The loyal listeners of this week in startups first, Molly Wood is going to bring me some questions about her new job, which is investing in startups. And we're calling that making a VC or baby VC. We're going to workshop the idea with y'all. So after we talk about becoming a VC and today we'll talk about how to, how to
to put a valuation on a company and how to figure out what stage a company is in and your
Goldilocks zone as an investor, after that, Molly's going to interview somebody who is in the
climate space, who is either building something in climate or investing in solutions to help
the planet. Let's get to work. Stick with us. This week in startups is brought to you by
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All right, everybody, I'm going to do a new segment here on the show for our Sunday edition,
where I, as somebody who's been investing for 11 years, and before that was a journalist,
talk to my friend Molly Wood and co-host about her journey,
and she's in week one of being an investor and has been a journalist.
for almost the same amount of time I have.
So how's week one going?
I know, we got to think of a name for this.
I've been calling it Baby VC on my...
Baby Shark do do do, do, baby VC do, do to do.
All right, just clip that guys.
Clip it and loop it.
Clip it and loop it.
All right.
Exactly.
What could go wrong?
So, yeah, mine...
Where do you want to start with questions today?
Because I have been thinking about a point-based system for you for how to assess
a startup in terms of how viable it is for investment.
I haven't rid any of it down.
I just have it in my brain.
So I have that as one thing I wanted to talk to you about.
And then also stages determining what stage and what the reality of a startup is.
Totally.
Why don't you start with what you want to talk about?
That is almost exactly what I want to talk about is how you determine your, I think,
what you called the Goldilocks zone of investing.
And how do you evaluate?
I don't know that I ever am going to be the,
the person who's like founder and a PowerPoint.
And it doesn't sound like that's a lot of what we do here.
But when you look at a company who says they have an MVP,
how like M and how V do you want that P to be?
Yes, exactly.
All right.
So venture firms and VP, by the way,
a minimum viable product for anyone who doesn't know,
but I'm sure that you do, but just in case.
And that is part of the lean startup methodology.
That Steve Blank and Eric restarted.
You can read their books.
They both have books.
And I have a book on angel investing called Angel.
Those three books.
I forgot Steve Blank's book.
I know Lean Startup was Eric's.
Steve Blank's book.
I can't remember.
But he's got a bunch of blog posts on this.
And so MVP, minimal viable product, the smallest amount of product to go out and test
if you have any kind of product market fit.
In other words, the product and a person connect with it.
So stepping back, when you're an investor, it's important to know what stage you like to invest in.
So there is just a, just a,
an idea on a napkin, piece of paper, that's really, really high risk, high reward, but you're
going to have a lot of zeros. Then you, because you're really just betting on the person,
their potential, et cetera, very hard to determine. But you can determine it, and we'll get into
that in a second. Then you have, they built a prototype and maybe a couple of members of their
team. And then after the prototype, you'll have something like an MVP where it actually
touches consumers. And then you'll have an actual product in market, and you'll start to see
traction. And I made something called the valuation versus traction matrix, which I'm going to have
the team pull up right now. I had to answer this question, Molly, so many times with angel
investors who were getting into the game that I literally just made an X, Y chart. And this X,
Y chart kind of explains where value exists in the earliest stage and where a lot of zeros exist.
And you could kind of plot where you want to be. For us as a company, I looked at these different
stages and over the last decade developed a product for each one.
Right.
And so our product for people who say, I want to be a founder, I have an idea, is called
founder.
dot university.
It started as a two-day intensive and now we made it a 12-week course.
It's free and we had 100 people go through it and we're going to do it three times next
year.
We'll have 200, 400, and then hopefully 800 people go through the next three classes.
And we just teach them how to be a founder, how to find a co-founder, all that stuff.
So for us to invest in people saying, I just have an idea.
given the amount of deal flow we have, the number of people contacting us, that's not efficient.
Because there'll be so many zeros.
So as an investor, you want to...
In this case, maybe we're specified, you mean zero's in the bad way, not the good way.
Zero's as in returns zero.
Yes.
They go out of business, right?
They go to zero.
And so that's okay.
You know, we're betting in a marketplace where we expect one out of 100 to return 500 X.
So you're actually hoping for, I know this sounds weird,
you're hoping people are being so ambitious that a large number fail.
Because if you're not being super ambitious,
then what's the chance of having an outlier's success?
If you only do safe things, you can't have the 500X.
So it's not that the individuals are a zero.
It's that the business turns out to return zero dollars.
Yes.
Okay.
So let's take a look at this matrix for a second,
because this will explain a lot.
For folks who are watching,
it's an XY matrix, and on the left, you have the valuation of the company going from, you know, zero to 12 million.
This is a little dated.
So we just in the, I think, two episodes ago talked about how valuations were 15 million at the start.
So you could maybe even double these numbers for today's market.
The green line is like an average startup's valuation along the journey at the bottom, which is traction.
So you have, you know, maybe somebody has an idea, a mockup, an MVP, unpaid pilots, paid pilots.
revenue is being generated.
And you can plot where startups exist.
So when somebody graduates from Y Combinator,
they're going to be worth $12, $15, $20 million,
and they probably have unpaid pilots.
And then if you look at this in quadrants,
the place you don't want to be is the upper left.
A high valuation,
so you're paying a large amount for the shares
with very little traction.
Pretty obvious, right?
Yeah.
Now, a good place...
How would you end up in that situation
other than just sort of like not good sense.
Is that where you get like sucked into a competitive environment
because everybody's going for, is that a FOMO situation?
Could be FOMO, could be naivete.
Remember, founders self-select for charisma.
And that could be Adam Newman.
That could be, you know, Elizabeth Holmes,
or it could be Travis or bride from Airbnb, you know.
So they tend to be super charismatic,
which means a new investor will be like,
oh my God, this person is going to change the world.
Their presentation deck, their enthusiasm,
like they could put you into that reality distortion field
where you're like, well, this is going to be a billion dollar company.
So it doesn't matter if I pay $2, $4, $6, $10, or $12 million or $15 million.
Right.
It's going to be worth the billion.
So I'm going to make 100 times my money no matter what.
I have goosebumps.
Exactly.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Okay.
Gotcha.
What you want to do is have some sort of discipline.
Now, where would you actually make this bet?
on somebody at a high valuation with no traction.
That's that little gold line there,
and that is serial founders,
founders who have done it before.
So if Evan Williams comes to you and he's done blogger
and he's done Twitter,
or Jack comes to you and he's done Twitter,
and now he's doing this new idea
for a point of sale system square
that you put on the top of your phone,
and you slide a card,
you'd say, you know what,
this person's been to the rodeo before.
This is Steven Spielberg.
This is somebody who's had hit films before.
if you were in Hollywood, you would bet on Stephen Spielberg's next film without even reading the script.
In fact, people do.
They give them a 10-look deal, a five-picture deal, because you know the person is that good.
So that's the little exception there.
But for somebody who's never done it before and then has no skill, no track record, why would you do that?
You would want to invest at a lower valuation.
And what does that mean?
Well, let's say it's a $12 million valuation and the person's never done anything before.
But we could invest in six of those people in our accelerator for the same amount.
You would take the six swings at bat versus the one.
Does that make sense?
Yeah, gotcha.
Because when you go to an accelerator, you have no experience or you have little experience
in startups.
So you're going to an accelerator to get more experience to sharpen your blade a little bit
to meet more investors to meet other founders and network.
So we have the launch accelerator.
So founder university for us is the top of the funnel.
actually this week in Starz is really the top of the funnel.
People watch it.
Then eventually maybe some of them go to Founder University.
Then the next stage down, okay, you're starting to make a bit of a prototype.
Come to Launch Accelerator, we'll give you $100,000 for 6%.
Or it's, I think, 125% or 7% at Y Combinator.
That implies about a $2 million valuation, which is very low, but you're going to that 12-week program,
in our case, 16 weeks, and you're getting that halo of, hey, Y,
Combinator or JCal or whoever has invested in the company, TechStars, they had a filtering
process. So downstream investors go, okay, if you filtered one out of 100, one out of 50, we'll pay
a little more for those companies. And we're going to give them extra attention because we know you
put them through your incubator. And so there's almost like a double whammy of improvement for
us, let's say, because like you said, you get six swings at the bat and you have given these
companies some training, making them potentially more likely to succeed. Correct. And so
For us, we want, and also we also want to build and we want to build a relationship with
that founder because if you made it through the accelerator and that company fails, which
most startups do fail.
And when I say fail, I mean fail to return money to investors.
They would be great learning experiences.
We could invest in that founder's second company.
And in fact, Travis, when I invested in him, that was his third company.
When I invested in Raoul from Superhuman, that was the second time I invested in him.
I had invested in Reportive, which got sold to LinkedIn.
We tripled our money, 25K when I was in.
investing then turned into 75 or maybe 100. So I got back my original 25 plus 75K. And I was kind of
bummed about that, like hitting a single with somebody like Raul. I know it sounds obnoxious to,
you know, triple your money in five years and be upset about it. But I just always felt like he was
100x founder. He had co-founders then. So I said, you know, that's fine. We, you know, we hit a single.
Just please let me be the first investor in next company. He came to me with Superhuman.
And famously, I gave him, you know, 500K, I think, just based on his idea, which was the take on Gmail.
So that's when you place a bet on a founder with no traction because you go, okay, I know this founder.
I've bet on them before.
So I would like to own, I think we own 2% of superhuman.
And so owning 2% of a company that's going to be worth billions, that'll be a great return for our investors, right?
I can make that bet.
Okay.
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So now what we want to do is really
you're trying to get a good price
or a reasonable price
for reasonable traction.
And that's where that green line starts to make sense.
And if you're below the green line in this chart,
you're probably getting a little extra value
or more swings at bat, and the further above it you go, probably are taking a little more risk.
And I tell all of the new angels I work with, do not invest pre-product market fit.
Do not invest until the product is being used by, say, 10 customers, 20 customers.
Why?
Most startups die before they get to their first paying customer.
Most startups die before they get to paying customer number one.
The ability to get one customer to take out their credit card and pay,
is colossal.
And you have to make sure that's a real customer.
So when you actually do your little investigation,
you talk to a founder, they'll say, yeah, we're at six customers.
I'm like, tell me who are the six customers?
And they're sometimes taken back.
What do you mean?
I'm like, walk me through each of the six customers.
Only six, you must know them.
You got to know them.
If you don't, that's a red flag.
But walk me through the six, how did you acquire each one?
Which ones are your friends?
Which ones are your last?
And I give them permission, like, wink, wink,
I know how this works.
So which ones are your friends, family, previous colleagues, and then which ones did you get organically or through marketing?
And they're like, oh yeah, so the first three are my frat brothers.
And you're like, great, good job.
You got, and that's totally valid.
You got your frat brothers to try it at their companies.
Somebody's got to try it, yeah.
They put it on your corporate card.
How did you acquire them?
But then you go to the fourth customer.
Like, yeah, the fourth one, we cold emailed and they signed up after one email.
And the fifth and the six, we met a trade show.
Okay.
Now that you've understood, there are three people, you know, that really made an honest decision to pay for this.
You can actually double tap on those three.
Tell me about those three.
How long have they been paying?
Do they pay for one month, three months, six months?
And are they actually using the product?
What are their engagement statistics?
Okay, so they bought Slack.
And they're the six customer for Slack, the first three refrapped brothers.
The six one was somebody you met at trade show.
How many messages do they send today?
And how is that increased over time?
You can actually have a very nuanced discussion about the engagement.
And then if you feel, okay, it's only three customers.
They're making $400 a month.
I can place a spend.
famously, when I invested in Com, they had $10,000 in revenue, I think, total to date.
And they were charging $10 for the app.
So they had sold $1,000 people on paying $10 for meditation.
For me, that was like, great.
If you can sell $1,000, you can sell a million.
And here we are.
That company's worth billions of dollars, and we own five or six percent of it.
And that's one of our biggest positions ever.
So that's how I think about, you know, the early stage.
So you met with a company without talking about who the company is, where would they
fall on this matrix. Well, I'm very excited to because I'm like, okay, all right, because I did get,
I got excited in the founder way. And now I need to know that I also got excited in the
fundamentals way, which is that they have had a pilot with several hundred paying customers that
was successful. They have customer retention numbers and they could tell me their margins,
which is that they, in fact, were profitable on their orders, like to the tune of one to two percent
with a path to greater margin.
And so the fact that they can credibly talk about that,
and they ran a pilot,
now you're starting to push them over to
just having a consistent revenue stream.
They're right before that.
So they did a pilot for some reason.
That's a bit of a red flag.
That may be,
why would it be a pilot is the question
I would double click on there.
It's asset heavy.
Ah, okay, fun.
Sure.
So they ran like a trial.
It's asset heavy.
Great.
Yeah.
And asset heavy, as we discussed,
is when you have to own
and spend a lot of money.
and then you have to ask yourself, well, why are they choosing to be asset heavy?
So the natural question is, so tell me, why are you buying the cars for your lift drivers
and your door dash drivers? Why are you buying their bicycles to deliver food and buying their e-bikes
instead of letting them buy their own and just paying them a little bit more and making it an asset
light marketplace? Why don't you do that instead of having to incur a $1,500 electric bike cost
every time you hire a new person? Because there are people out there with electric bikes.
This was, by the way,
if we talked,
what was this our first or second show
where we talked about Joker?
Yes.
That's a specific example in play here
in case you missed that one.
Hopefully you didn't go back and listen
it'll boost the rankings.
Yes.
So anyway,
that's how I would think about it.
And really,
this is what you're,
and you can start to feel,
let me know if I was correct
and saying the same feeling as a journalist
when you're trying to figure out
like, should I actually publish this story
about this company?
Is it bullshit?
Am I going to have egg on my face?
That I publish a story
where it was kind of vaporware
and it was smoking.
smoke and mirrors, or did I actually publish a story about a company that's real?
Yeah.
Like, we always have that constant fear as a journalist, right?
Am I going to be the one who put Elizabeth Holmes on the cover and it was a fraud and it didn't
exist?
Like, there's a group of technology journalists who did put her on the cover editors who are
probably thinking to themselves, like, post that every time they put somebody on the cover,
they're thinking, let's make sure this isn't another Elizabeth Holmes, so we don't have egg
on our face again.
And you know, what's great is that I went from a very, like, consumer-oriented journalist,
I was doing reviews.
So there was skepticism and evaluation.
But there wasn't,
it wasn't until I really made the transition
when I went to the New York Times to a business journalist
that I had permission to ask rude questions about money.
Yes.
And then now, even just in my one meeting as a venture capitalist,
and it took, you know, I had to like work over,
I had to get over that hurdle to ask very specific rude seeming questions about
money that are not, that even, that journalists don't ask, even business journalists are not, and
companies won't tell you. They will tell you if they want their money. And I was like, this is
delightful. I can actually get the real information. And I already felt so gratified by being
able to ask the specific questions that would have caused me in the past to weed out companies
as a journalist. Like if I had gotten the answers I got today, I would have been like, I can
probably write about this story. And that's because the power dynamic is different. In the case of a
journalists, you can give them exposure, and that's probably why they're talking to you.
And in the case of being a venture capitalist, you can give them money.
Right.
So they're incentivized to BS you a little bit no matter what.
Yeah.
But if they want your money, they have to tell you a little bit more of the truth.
And I'm already so excited about that because it just feels like a more honest dynamic.
Yes.
And when you're doing journalism, what happens is they're trying to play you and you're trying to
get to the truth.
So you're having this weird dance where it's like, please just tell me the truth so I can
tell the story to the public correctly.
And they're like, okay, here's how we want to
spin you. We have no competitors in the world
and this is going to be worth $10 billion.
Pooh, pooh, pow, pow, this is great.
And you don't really have any recourse
because you're like, you don't have
deep knowledge on each one. But here you could say,
for your top three competitors?
Exactly.
How much money do they make?
How many employees do they have?
And when you start asking questions like that,
if the person does not get into what I call
like the volley, like ever play a good ping pong
volley and you're like, who cares about the sport?
that was rewarding enough to just hit the ball back and forth 20 times at that speed.
That's actually, for me, the founder I want to work with.
So when I was talking to Travis about Uber, or I talked to Vlad about Robin Hood,
man, we were riffing and all of a sudden three hours would disappear and we went to dinner
and then we went to have a drink and then we went for a two-mile walk and we couldn't stop talking
about all the possibilities for Robin Hood, for Uber, for Com.
When you get in that jamming session, I had Alex from Com over to play tennis at my house and
you know, we were just talking for hours, you know, like from the morning until the night,
and, you know, the conversation never ends. And that's the exciting part about being a capital
allocator is when you find the right person, they want to tell you that because they're going
to respect you and say, I actually want to have this conversation about union economics. I want to
have a debate about asset light versus asset heavy. When the person's defensive,
that's a red flag. What you're asking herself is, and you know, I hate to bring up the dating or
marriage analogies in 2022.
It's fraught with, you know,
concerns, but.
I do it all the time. It's true.
But it's kind of accurate because you're going to spend 10 years with this person
building the company.
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superside.com slash twist. If the person is like a bullshit artist or won't answer the questions
or gets defensive, you got to think like, what is board meeting number 30 going to be like?
What is like year five going to be like, is this person going to miraculously mature?
And I've been in the situation where I've been on boards where, you know, a CEO is not maturing.
And it's painful. I'm just like, can somebody buy my shares?
in this company.
And I just tell the founder, like, listen,
it's happened to me maybe three times,
four times out of 350 investments,
where I said, you know,
I'm not the right investor for you.
And it's almost like breaking up talk.
And I'm just like, you know,
we own 8% of the company.
At the next round of financing,
how about you buy 4% of it?
We'll keep 4% of it.
We'll be below the 5% to 7%
where we want to have a board seat
and we can just have any insurance in the future
and you can get us off the board.
I've said that to founders that candidly
because it is a long-term relationship.
You want to be rooting for the person.
And I had somebody who coached me at one point because I was a bit of a terror as a manager.
And I was telling him about this terrible employee.
And they're like, hey, you're not rooting for this person.
And I was like, what do you mean?
He said to me, he's like, you actually don't want them to succeed at this point.
Right.
And I just thought about it.
Now it's like, yeah, I hate this person.
And it's like, but you're the boss.
You hired them.
I was like, well, I didn't hire somebody else.
He said, well, you hired the person hired them.
And you're keeping them employed.
He's like, if you're not rooting for them anymore, why are there at your company?
And it's like, well, they're good at what they do and I need that position filled.
And they're like, really?
You can't find anybody else to do it.
Like, so you don't want the pain of hiring somebody, but you're not rooting for the person.
You have to have somebody in that position who you're rooting for their success, not rooting for their failure.
It's dysfunctional.
And I was like, ah, this is like a dysfunctional relationship, a dysfunctional marriage, whatever we've seen.
You know, that couple who comes to the dinner party, everybody's like, why are you guys still married?
Like, all you do is argue.
And they've lost, for us.
They've lost the, like, the benefit of the doubt.
That is such a good, I mean, I understand the awkwardness of using relationship metaphors,
but the fact is that what you're talking about is dating the person in front of you.
Like, they're not going to change.
Yes.
Yeah.
Or if they do change, be delighted.
Sure.
And it's on the margins.
They're going to change and they're going to grow because, you know, building a company is really hard.
Yes.
Having employees makes you probably less selfish.
And it will, you know, for most people, it will likely mature them.
Yeah.
But yeah.
This is why.
Some VCs use the term coachable.
I like a founder who is coachable.
Okay.
Some people take that the wrong way, like that the founder's incompetent.
What it means is I wouldn't use the word,
I don't use the word coachable because it kind of creates the dynamic,
like I'm in charge and you're the player and I'm the coach and I can put you on the bench
or whatever because that's not, it's not accurate.
It's more like I say, can the person have an intellectually honest discussion?
Can I riff with the person?
Can I have that volley back and forth?
And they take notes.
I take notes.
They take notes and we can have a productive debate back and forth.
Like you and I, the reason I think this collaboration is working so well already is you
and I are having private discussions about what will make the show better.
What do we each want to do?
If you can have an intellectually honest discussion, okay, at least we're not sitting here
bull-shitting each other about the reality.
And what leaders do at their core is define reality for everybody.
And when you're on the board of a company and when you're an investor, you're a leader of that
company.
You may not be the ultimate leader as the founder is.
It's their company.
But you do have a leadership position and you have to define reality.
And if the reality is we don't have product market fit, well, then we should not be spending
money on marketing yet.
And we should not be hiring a bunch of marketing and salespeople because the customers are
not in love with the product yet.
You need to get that first.
But I've seen founders and boards who are not defining reality.
And I'm like, yeah, let's just spend a million dollars getting more customers.
And I'm like sitting there on the board going, what's our NPS score?
What's our NPR score?
What's our engagement?
What's our churn rate?
If our churn is 30% a month,
do we really want to be spending money
and pouring water into a bucket with two holes in it?
Like, let's fix the holes so the customers don't run out
and then fill the bucket.
And so these are the nuanced discussions.
And so I think for-
There's going to be a lot more of it.
I'm so excited.
A lot more.
I think it's a good start.
For those of you are wondering,
every Sunday,
Molly's going to cover her passion,
which is broadly defined as, Molly?
Climate Solutions.
Climate crisis solution.
I am a solutioner.
I'm looking for solutions to the climate crisis.
We are going to call it, though.
I think we have all decided.
Sustainability Sundays.
Jason's name is the winner.
Listen, if there's a better name, by all means, change.
Everybody knows what we're talking about.
And that is, I think, the key to a good name.
It's better to be clear than clever.
But in your statement there, it's world positive.
It's not crying your coffee Sundays.
This is not woeful.
No.
Woe is me.
We're not going to get through this.
This is, what's a solution to people who want to have their homes be more efficient to have a lower carbon footprint when they're eating food, whatever it is?
Yeah.
How do you want to get fossil fuels out of your life?
I don't care what the method is because we need them all.
And it's ultimately, it's like, look, I'm like a German girl from the Midwest.
I am about getting to work.
Hard work, black coffee, get it done.
Quit your bitch.
I love it.
I love it.
I just love to work out.
Quit your bitch on Sundays.
So actually this is why this is going to be a good collaboration.
Because I was looking for a co-host for like three years.
And I was just like, all right, Caroushisher is obviously not available.
And they wanted me to be Carer Swisher's partner in crime.
And they couldn't get me or Tramoth.
And then they went to the number one.
They went to the number one on the B list, which was Prof.
Prof.
So Bankoff was like, you got to get Chimov.
or J-Cal, that's the perfect collat.
And I was like, listen, I already, my dance cards fall on my own podcast.
I don't need to go work for somebody.
So they went with it, which is great.
I think Prof. G's turned out okay.
He's entertaining.
I mean, he's wrong, but he's entertaining.
But the hard work ethic that you have, it's great because the people who are working on
our team here at this weekend starts are hard working, but they're like, guy, Jason's a bit
of a maniac.
Like, he's texting us on the weekends.
We have a group thread and he's texting on the weekends.
And then you come in, week one.
And I'm like, I just type one little suggestion.
for the show this week on Sunday, and then I go skiing and I come back.
I'm on the lift, and I look, and there's 80 messages from Molly in the team.
I really used to be so much better about boundaries, you guys.
I'm really, I will respect your time.
I believe in everyone's unattainium, but also.
The benchmark, black coffee, Germans, Midwest, let's go.
Everybody's not really true.
We send texts on the weekends constantly.
You do, you do.
I believe that.
But this was a little bit of a high watermark to have another maniac in there as a host, Nick.
Producer Nick, was it not good or great?
No, I actually, all of the producers love, love when you send suggestions because that makes our job easier for pictures.
Because we already have a story to do.
It's like, all right, perfect.
I can even knock this out if I have some time Sunday night to get ahead of Monday.
It's great.
That's what I'm looking for.
All right, everybody.
So this is the Sunday show.
You're listening to this actually on the Sunday show.
All right, Molly, who do you have next on Sustainable Sundays?
Who's your interview today for Sustainable Sundays?
And why did you pick them?
So I'm very excited, actually, because I'm interviewing Danny Kennedy, who is the CEO of New Energy Nexus, which is basically a global accelerator for companies and organizations and individuals who are focused on the big energy transition, right, getting off of fossil fuels and electrification.
And Danny is one of the people who really helped me understand the idea of climate solutions.
He's been doing this forever.
I think he had, like, Japan shooting harpoons at him when he was, like, in Greenpeace.
30 or 40 years ago. He's a bonkers Australian, so look for a lot of F word. But he also is
profoundly optimistic about the brilliant people who are going to do the hard work and come up with
the technologies that are going to get our butts out of this. He's basically got Y Combinator
for climate change and sustainability. Yeah, exactly. He's got a lot of money. Is it based on the state of
California? He's in Oakland. Oh, perfect. Right. Awesome. So that would be a great collaboration.
Maybe he has a great company that we can syndicate at some point. I think he could be some feedstock.
Not going to lie. Awesome. Well,
I mean, that is, it is a, as we say in the business, this is a team sport.
So when you find a great collaborator like I have in Sequoia or with SACs and Chamoth and other folks,
you all of a sudden just start riffing between other capital allocators about companies they're investing in ones we are and how can we collaborate to make them successful.
And so that's awesome.
I can't wait to hear it.
Let's hear in the interview.
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So I'm super excited to kick off Sustainability Sunday, as we're calling it so far,
although Danny knows my secret plan is to eventually transition it to this week in climate startup.
My first guest here as baby climate investor and co-host of this week in startups is Danny Kennedy,
chief energy officer at New Energy Nexus.
And for those of you don't know, Danny's already been like a little bit of my guide.
He's been my Yoda into the world of covering climate tech and climate solutions.
And then also into like making this leap into the investment side.
Danny, thanks for, thanks for being guest number one.
Hey, I'm so excited.
This is going to be fun.
And I can't wait to see what you do, Molly.
This is going to be really cool.
This week in climate startups is absolutely what we need now.
So let's do this.
All right.
Great.
We're doing it.
Tell me, all right.
So this is, you know, you don't, you're behind the scenes is that right before you and I started talking for the podcast listener, we had a segment that's like Molly's a baby VC.
And I think we should sort of continue that conversation for both my selfish purposes, but also just the same.
idea of like, so you want to be a climate tech investor because that's kind of a thing now.
That seems to be quite a trend.
Would you say that's fair?
Are you seeing that?
Oh, sure.
You know, last year was this banning year for clean energy generally.
And it was also a ban a year for early stage investing around the globe, you know, and a lot of
that venture capital flowed into the clean energy segment.
I think by the numbers, people were saying that it more than doubled from about
six percent of deals done last year as more like 14 percent in the broad sort of climate
sectors, if you will. And that's a great news story. But like I said, we need this week in climate
startups every week because that's got to go from 14 percent to 50 and beyond, I think,
if we're really going to get the climate transition done in time. Well, tell us about that you're
part of this world. What happens at New Energy Nexus? You're a nonprofit, right, a global nonprofit?
We are, but we invest funds and manage other people's money, ranging from the state of California
for whom we run a fund called the Calseed Fund, which is really gift capital grants into very
early stage startups in California.
We've been doing this for 15 years in California.
In other places, it may be actual equity invested, for example, in Indonesia.
We have probably the largest early stage equity fund in Indonesia.
We did seven deals last year, over just over a million.
you know, not huge beer, but some gangbuster returns already because that country,
like many Southeast Asian nations, is popping on, say, solar.
So five out of the seven deals, we're in the solar market.
We run funds in India, in Africa and elsewhere.
But, you know, also we do microfinance and lending licenses for very small beer relative
to what your listeners are probably used to.
So it's a very broad gamut of things we do to broadly achieve our mission.
which is to support diverse entrepreneurs to drive the energy transition.
We need more innovation and more involvement and engagement of communities,
people getting the wealth and opportunities of this incredible energy transition as it arises
so that they get behind it.
That's basically our game.
What kind of investments do you look for, specifically clean energy?
Yeah, I mean, we're in electricity.
Or rather broadly clean energy, I guess, because that's a pretty big.
Right.
So it no longer just sort of the renewable space.
We're in climate tech is what it's being called in America,
in other markets,
more generally clean energy in China,
new energy.
And, you know,
for your listeners,
just to remind us,
that's where the game is,
you know,
almost twice as much money spent last year and
the renewable deployment game in,
in that country than any other country.
So new energy is the Mandarin for clean or renewable
energy, by the way. But we do electricity, mobility, ag, the other industry sectors, a lot in the
built environment, you know, good old-fashioned energy efficiency, you know, the first fuel. One of our
best deals closed on Christmas Eve was a company called Synergy Energy Solutions in Indonesia,
where the built environment is just this, you know, building stock that's bleeding money
because it's wasting electricity and air conditioning load, right? And there's so many
efficiencies that can be gained with a smart audit and retrofit firm and they go in and do a
pay-as-you-save kind of contract with building owners and just make money for people. It's a brilliant
business that we're happy to invest in. So, you know, we're across the spread and as I mentioned,
we run a microfinance lending license and a training for very grassroots entrepreneurs at the base
of the pyramid in Uganda, where we're training mostly women to sell solar home systems and lamps
and the like as products to displace dirty fuels, dung and wood and kerosene in their households,
which saves them money too.
So it is a very broad range of investments we're looking at.
But in terms of your audience, I think, Molly, you know, they'd be interested in the battery
businesses we've got behind.
That's how you and I first connected about the lithium industry.
And, you know, we were right.
And, you know, we were right.
And look at that.
You know, last year, that commodity was the biggest growth story in the world.
Bigger than coffee, bigger than oil, bigger than anything, 400% year on year.
So, you know, we're across the spread.
I sometimes sound like a weird sort of salesman opening my jacket and saying, you know,
which watch do you want to buy?
Isn't that like a business now?
What are you for a Rolex knockoff or a?
Uganda, Indonesia?
Right, which country, that's it.
What's to be, I mean, most of our investments here, right?
right, at launch and through the syndicate are going to be U.S.-based.
But it still feels like a lot of those things, a lot of those opportunities are similar, right?
Like when I look at solutions, it's like, it is boring old energy efficiency.
You're the one who has said to me more than once that the silver bullet technology already
exists and it's solar.
Like, how do you think some of those learnings about the countries and the economies that
are either trying to preemptively build renewable energy instead of dirty or replace it in
some way, like, how do we bring those lessons back here to find companies in the U.S.?
Well, yeah, one is just the smart replication of things.
I mean, there's a few bits to unpack there.
And in the, you know, interests of the new investor coming into the space, I'd offer a
couple of observations.
One is that I don't think I would have said silver bullet, silver bullet with solar, but sort
of silver buckshot, you know, there's going to be a number of things.
But the big slug that sort of takes the animal down is probably the solar piece.
is the one that, you know, according to the International Energy Agency at the end of last year,
projected now to do 90% of new additions over the next five years to grids around the globe.
You know, that's the train you want to be on.
And the businesses that do that deployment are going to be, you know, in some places,
sort of mom and pop shops growing up, growing large, doing three and ten X type stories.
There are others that are going to do much more than that.
The businesses that finance them that provide the SaaS solutions to their smooth operation and engineering and execution, maybe even better multiples.
So you want to work out how are you going to engage in that.
But then there's also, to your question about what the lessons are in the States, you know, how do you find the company that's going to take rooftops all over the commercial and industrial segment?
No one's really done that in the United States.
You know, there's all these big stories like Mosaic, which is doing, I think, one in five residential solar loans right now and Sunlight Financial and Goodleap and these other companies that do the residential financing of the solar rollout that's happening.
And we'll ultimately touch 80 million homes in America.
That's their total addressable market.
And they've done about two or three, I think, at this point.
So they've got a lot of headroom.
But no one's done a sophisticated, scaled version of that for C&I in America.
So there are companies we're supporting like, all.
financial, which has just started to do that commercial and industrial segment. And it's a
pattern recognition game, right? People that were in at the ground floor on the solar leasing and solar
loan business were involved with Mosaic and others are now migrating all that knowledge and
institutional learning. And it's the classic serial entrepreneurial entrepreneur trick and taking
it into the CNI segment, which is almost as big as the residential segment. How many small
shops and warehouses and distribution centers and you name it could go solar in America
many tens of millions and they will need to be financed and the company that corners that and
banks that is going to do really well. And then just to go back to the point you made about
most of your syndicate is probably going to be looking at the US, I'd encourage you to, you know,
challenge yourself about whether you can get comfortable with going outside the United States.
you know, by the numbers, I think, of that banner year we had in 2021 with venture capital
flowing into climate tech, about two-thirds of it, I think 65% was in the US.
Well, the US ain't two-thirds of the world, is it?
Neither by population nor economy nor by energy transition, like we talked about.
The big numbers are happening in Asia.
Why aren't we investing in Indonesian solar companies?
There's going to be much better stories there in terms of growth.
And it's because of prejudices we have about Indonesia and emerging market risk and whatever.
But we've got to get over those in order, A, make the climate solutions happen at scale
and contribute to those communities taking this on and succeeding.
And B, if we actually want to, you know, ride this wave and take it all the way into the clam bake.
You mean make a crap ton of money?
That's what your LPs are going to want to do.
I'm just trying to translate a little bit.
Is it also more, like from the baby investor sort of perspective, how much more complicated is it?
Versus, you know, just being like we invest in U.S. companies that are incorporated in Delaware.
I wonder, like, what is it that holds people back?
Like you said, it's sort of institutional bias.
Is it a risk factor thing?
Is it literally paperwork?
Yes, yes, and yes, I think.
And, you know, that's the work that has to be done.
And, you know, unfortunately, I would argue that, you know, and I don't consider myself a venture capitalist.
As you said, we're a non-profit doing this for a mission, which is, you know, very much about spreading climate solutions as quick as we can.
I don't think venture capitalists love to do work, hard work at least, you know.
So if it's hard work to go work out, how do you invest in India or Indonesia or whatever, you know, oh, I've got to go recruit some of the
speaks a different language and I've got to work out the legals in a different jurisdiction
and I've got to repatriate at my capital and do that stuff.
It's probably easier to just stay at home and take a bet on the next thing next door.
So part of the challenge perhaps is to decide we're going to do the hard things, which include
spreading the benefits of clean energy and electric mobility and the electrification of
everything to everyone, which is 7 billion people outside our shores.
And if you do that in advance, there's a little more impact to be made, right?
Like you have talked about how obviously there are big changes that need to be made in big industrial country.
I mean, the U.S. isn't 65% of the world population, but it's like the number one or two polluter, right?
Well, historically, number one by a country mile, you know, we're the most historical responsibility.
But going forward into the 21st century, and we're fifth of the way through that.
the way, we're not more than 10% I think we're less of the pollution problem.
It was like a weirdly shocking statement and I don't know why that bit of the way through
thing.
Made me feel like we need to hurry out.
People forget that.
Yeah, the puck has already sort of gone to Asia.
The world's economy by the numbers is bigger in Asia than the United States, you know,
the population obviously and the growth story.
Like the emerging demand, the economic activity is not in Europe or Japan.
They're declining and the states are sort of flat and where we're going to see energy demand
grow is, again, these populations like a Nigeria or an Indonesia where it's going to 5, 7X or
something like that.
You might get incremental growth in energy demand or these services that we're selling in
energy and in climate tech solutions, but you're going to get big multiples of those
things when you have 100 to 300 million human populations going from almost no use of
electricity to use of electricity like you and I have. I mean, sorry to geek out, but the average
Indonesian uses a thousand kilowatt hours per annum per capita or something in that ballpark.
You and I are probably doing 10,000. They're going to do five or six or seven as they electrify
their motorbikes. They get more air conditioning. They get more online. They do all the things that we
take for granted. If that is built out on coal and diesel, which is the current strategy,
for that country, then climate change is late.
Right.
So, good news is Indonesia's thousands of islands strung along an archipelago that is sitting
on the equator, perfect for solar and storage and some other renewable solutions.
It's a two-wheel vehicle platform country.
You know, they've stopped buying cars because they can't fit them on their islands and crowded
the cities anymore, they're going to electrify all that, and they should do that with clean energy.
That's a story that an investor should go make hay with and get involved.
Well, yeah, I mean, it sort of sounds like if, you know, in my brief travels through this world,
which are not that brief, I mean, I've certainly been covering this industry a long time.
It's quite clear, if a venture capitalist is actually interested in a 100x or a 500x return,
you're describing those opportunities right now.
Right.
Yeah.
And another little clue.
But more paperwork, Danny.
I'm sorry.
But the wonderful people, I mean, you know, we've got an investment manager for our equity fund, which is housed in Singapore, but in Indonesia.
And she is, you know, effectively a first time out, first time money manager doing incredible work, you know, with the deals we've made.
The co-investors are incredibly happy, you know, and as I said, we've already seen.
great returns with, you know, what's a really small little pocket.
I was going to give you another sort of tip, if you will, which is, you know, just as there's
unrealized opportunities because of the herd mentality, you know, VCs tend to move in packs,
as it were. So I think you would have seen those numbers from PWC that over the last five
years, say 60% or more of the sort of early stage investing has gone into mobility, right?
Makes sense because that was where a lot of innovation was coming, sort of post the real
build out of solar and wind and the growth of batteries, which is good for electricity and mobility
and also makes sense because Tesla was sort of skyrocketing during that time.
and so everyone wanted to sort of get on that gravy train.
But, you know, in the climate tech space, mobility is, I don't know the exact number,
but I think it's like 16% of the emissions profile.
So you have a disproportionate allocation of capital going into the sectors that are actually
causing the problem.
I think that the top five sectors that generate, say, 80% of,
emissions are getting 25% of venture.
Well, what are those?
One of the things I want to do in our remaining time is like break down, you know,
this problem into some of its component parts.
So like, where should we be making?
Manufacturing and heavy industry, you know, how do we, how do we clean that stuff up?
You know, and great startups in our portfolios like in third derivative cane and energy solutions,
a bunch of really smart furnaces.
The whole hydrogen sector is sort of addressing that.
that, a bunch of deals there.
Built environment, you know, we talked about this, but again, you know,
lots of cool companies doing work like block power or radiator labs in New York,
you know, that could really just transform.
Let's like break that down even more.
When you say built environment, you're talking about how do we transform.
There's actually a move of foot, which I've noticed people talking about decarbonizing their homes.
Like, is that what you mean?
And obviously, but extending that to business and that can be anything from electrifying a building, like replacing your gas stove with your, you know, let's be like super specific.
Because I feel like when somebody talks to me about decarbonizing their house, they're saying like, oh, I'm getting a quote that's more than the cost of the house to, you know, take out, rip out all the HVAC, put in electric.
Rip out all the appliances, put in electric.
Get solar.
Right.
Get a battery.
Like I hear that and I'm like, I think there's a hundred businesses in there.
Yeah, and there's a really one big roll-up of a business which makes that easy and elegant for the consumer to do.
Because that just sounds like a consumer nightmare trying to manage 10 different contractors.
Right.
Exactly.
Super impactful.
Point of sale, online solution to make that easy and branded and sexy and fun, that company's off to the race.
Whoever nails that one in America is going to do well, right?
Call me if you're out there.
Okay.
Hey, yeah.
So that's a great example.
Yes, you know, the built environment breaks into many niches and each of those is a giant industry opportunity of its own, right?
So, yes, residential retrofits as we electrify everything, switching out gas cookers with induction stoves.
Who's going to handle that?
He's going to make a better induction stove, et cetera, et cetera.
So there's all sorts of businesses.
$2,700.
Right.
And, you know, who's going to train people how to use them well, you know, turn it into a cooking fad or
something or other. I don't know. There's all sorts of innovation and entrepreneurship to be had around
that phenomena in middle America. But then the built environment also goes into other legacy
buildings that are housing stock. You know, so Manhattan, you know, these 100 year old buildings
with 100 year old radiators that leak gas and money like nobody's business, you know, what are we
going to do to switch them out? The factories of America, the distribution warehouses of Southern
California, you know, you name it, there's a 101 stories that need treatment by innovative
entrepreneurs.
And, you know, enough said on that other than like, watch this space and look at our portfolios
in CalC, the derivative, clean fight in New York.
We've got plenty of companies trying to address those things.
Then, of course, there's mobility, but, you know, not just the obsession with the four-wheel
platform private car, which, yes, America.
Americans have sort of created their personal identities around, but is not, A, how most of
humanity moves.
Like, you know, in a country like India, 85% of vehicle miles traveled are in rickshorts.
Yeah.
Three-wheel vehicles, you know, like, who's electrofitting those?
I don't know whether you've heard this phrase electrofitting, but the sort of the poor man's
movie out.
Oh, God, I love that.
Electrofitting.
Well, you know, great company, you know, plug one shift TV, the guy in, out of MIT,
but Egyptian,
gone to Cairo,
where there's a hundred thousand compact little minivans,
I think Andresen Horowitz is in this deal,
that you can just switch out with a $10,000 kit from China
and turn into an electric vehicle.
And it extends the life of the chassis.
It takes its operating cost to a fraction of the shitty engine that it had in it.
And you turn this fleet of 100,000 vehicles into,
you know,
from a rattling, smelly, polluting problem for the,
the fleet manager into a much more efficient, low-cost, clean, less troublesome solution.
Yeah.
You know, and how many fleets?
My son is to be super annoyed because he thinks he invented that idea.
I got a lot of electric-
He's like, what if you could just send people a kit to their house to turn their cars into electric?
And I'm like, I mean, yes.
What a fun to that.
Can I give him a tip?
No one's done that yet to me for marine transportation.
You know, there's hundreds of millions of humans that move about coastal and river waterways
with put-puts and dumb diesel tanks and pay through the nose to refuel and all that.
And, hey, a hot swappable battery at the dock and a cool electric motor, they'd be much better off.
It's the same benefit, you know, total cost of ownership, less moving parts, less maintenance and operation cost.
Let's do this.
Let's just transform marine electrification.
Let's do it this week in startups call out for marine electrofitting winners.
Yeah, hit us up.
Because we can totally do that now.
This is fun.
You've got to have me back.
I want to do this again.
We're totally going to do this again.
I love it.
All right.
Well, I'm going to ask you one last question and tell our next time, which is this,
where do you fall?
And I mean, I obviously know the answer to this.
But it seems clear that there are going to be these kind of like two buckets of investing,
probably as a result of the like leftover fear from, you know, the green, what was it, the green
investing boom of the early 2000s. But there's this question about like meet space investing
versus everybody thinking, well, maybe there's a SaaS solution for this, which there clearly are.
Like people talk a lot about the lack of metrics and data. And I'm sure there are a million
business opportunities there. But there's also built environment. There's also, you know,
hard infrastructure that investors are a little scared of.
So you're asking me, where do I fall on hybrid workplaces?
Is that?
I'm saying that like, I think there are going to be a lot of, yeah, that was a lot of words.
That's my fault.
I think there are going to be a lot of brand new climate tech investors who are going to come
to this space and go, hardware is difficult or basic science is really hard or built
infrastructure is very complicated and there are a million different regulations.
Maybe I should just find a SaaS solution.
for climate instead?
And what's your advice?
You know, it is true that there are a lot of investors that want to chase those
easier pieces of this. And you know, I'm guilty for this.
Like my first business that I started was the company that pioneered remote solar
design, which was a software solution to the problem of truck rolls going out of houses to do
the engineering quotation drawing. You know, we just didn't want to spend that money to just
get a quick and dirty sketch at the time now.
it's the best way to do it and it's ubiquitous.
We use satellite and photographic aerial photographic images to do the design engineering
across the solar industry.
So software can help and software will help and is in other charging infrastructure
and other pieces and there are great investments to be had there.
But I think you won't obviously solve it all and you won't chase down all the deals if you
stick with that thesis.
You know, there are hard things to be done and people have to do it.
It's often these really innovative blends of hardware software, like the full stack stuff.
You know, like one of my favorite companies is out of Australia called Infravision using drones
to do line stringing on high voltage transmission, which is pretty remarkable tech.
But it also starts getting into the sort of grid enabling technology solutions,
which is a software problem around how you route electrons around.
grids. You know, you might have heard that news story over the winter break that there's a solution
in the northeast that could get, you know, 60% more juice out of the grid we've got, just because we
don't use it fully, but if you can be smarter about it, then you can run more traffic through the
streets effectively. However, to be smarter about it, you have to have intelligence on the wires.
You have to have systems and sensors and stuff and that all reported back.
and Infravision are really doing amazing things with drone technology in order to build that
intelligence and that capability on an incredibly old bit of kit, which is the American grid,
for example.
So I think, you know, that's if you're a software investor wanting to get into climate tech,
you know, maybe that's your entry point is those bits that bring the intelligence layer
into the hardware layer, which is ultimately what we're talking about.
I mean, you know, last thought from me, Molly, for you and this entry is, don't give up on this.
This is not going away.
This tide turned over the last year or so and it sort of started to rise and people are
realizing, you know, it's gone from 6% to 14% of venture capital.
And it is going to go to bigger and bigger numbers because it is what the world needs.
And venture capital was invented to try to do hard things and solve big, hairy problems.
And that does mean we are going to have to get better at doing not just software and
SaaS solutions, even though those businesses might be legit and make a good return and a fast buck.
But we're also going to stick with the other ones.
A bit like, you know, digitization, when we think about it, you know, way back in the 90s,
I think when you first started reporting on tech was all about, you know, how it's going
to disrupt all these categories.
And then there was disappointments and waves of hype and speculation and stuff.
But now we do realize digitization really has crept into every corner of the globe and has disrupted
every segment from media, the music to whatever, and is now in every geography.
And so, too, that's going to happen with low-cost electricity from clean energy.
It's not just electricity in the grid and spilling into mobility and making our cars cheaper,
better faster.
It's going to be making our buildings smarter and better to live in.
It's going to make our industry more efficient and profitable.
It's going to make our lives and everything better.
And investing in that is your mission, if you choose to work.
accepted.
Danny Kennedy, Chief Energy Officer at New Energy Nexus.
I could probably like go on all day, but that's such a beautiful place to end that I just
have to call it.
Well, Danny, you can find at New Energy Nexus.
And then where do we find you on Twitter if people want to hit you up with this,
all the ideas we've thrown out today?
At Danny Kay's fun, B-A-N-N-Y-S-F-U-N.
He is really fun, you guys.
I am at Mollywood.
If you want to hit me up with your client.
I'm at Tech Startup Idea and Molly atlaunch.com.
This is where you can find me because I'm doing this, guys.
I'm doing it.
