This Week in Startups - TikTok vs. YouTube, Bolt CEO calls Stripe & YC "Mob Bosses," Culdesac, Anduril wins $1B contract | E1369
Episode Date: January 26, 2022In this all news show Jason and Molly talk about Jason's strategy for meeting with founders (1:48) and we talk about monetization for creators on TikTok and how payouts compare to YouTube (6:48). Then... we look at the post where Bolt Founder Ryan Breslow accused Stripe and YC of being Silicon Valley mob bosses (31:41). Our startup of the day is Culdesac, which is building a walkable community in Arizona (45:42). To wrap, we cover Anduril’s $1B Department of Defense contract for counter-drone tech, their largest contract to date (58:55). 00:00 Jason and Molly intro the all news show 01:48 Jason's strategy during founder meetings 06:48 Why creators aren't happy with payouts from the TikTok creator fund 10:10 Squarespace - Use offer code TWIST to save 10% off your first purchase of a website or domain at https://Squarespace.com/TWIST 11:55 How creator earnings compare between TikTok and YouTube 20:43 Ourcrowd - Check out the deal of the week at https://ourcrowd.com/twist 21:52 Jason's hot take on TikTok 24:00 How creators can take advantage of platforms 30:30 Lemon.io - Get 15% off your first 4 weeks of developer time at https://Lemon.io/twist 31:41 How Bolt’s Founder accused Stripe and YC of being Silicon Valley mob bosses. 45:42 Startup of the day - Culdesac 53:13 Anduril’s $1B Dept of Defense Contract for counter-drone tech FOLLOW Jason: https://linktr.ee/calacanis FOLLOW Molly: https://twitter.com/mollywood
Transcript
Discussion (0)
Welcome to the show, everybody.
It's going to be a great episode of this week in startups.
We have a little bit of an accidental VC school from Jason,
his evolving pitch strategy, how to take a meeting, basically.
Then we're going to talk a little bit about the creator economy,
monetization for creators on TikTok,
why lots of people are moving over to YouTube,
and what platforms owe creators.
More importantly, how you as a creator,
you're basically a startup founder.
So how do you turn your talent and your brand into a business?
We're going to talk about that.
also dish the tea on Bolt's founder, accusing Stripe and Y Combinator of being Silicon Valley
mob bosses. Nobody had that on their Twitter bingo card yesterday. Let me just put it that way.
We also have a startup of the day, cul-de-sac building a walkable and sustainable community in Arizona.
And finally, we cover Andrews's $1 billion Department of Defense contract for counterdron tech.
Stick with us. It's going to be an amazing episode.
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I do have to tell you that what I have realized doing this job so far is that the hardest part for me is that I'm a little embarrassed
to say this, but like, I've kind of been
talent for a long time.
And things I discovered
early on is I didn't, I don't, I didn't
even know how to make a Zoom meeting.
No, it is hard to be talented.
I'm just the hell of the snowflake and I don't know
how to make my own meeting.
Well, I tell you, I had this too, because
as talent slash CEO, I had the benefit of both.
And I was like, get me on a flight.
And then, uh, yeah, get that.
And then I realized like, wait a second,
I haven't booked the flight in like 10 fucking years.
Uh, I have all these apps
on my phone, and the apps went from being absolutely horrific five years ago.
Absolutely flawless now.
I don't know if you noticed that.
There's no excuse.
There's no excuse not to book your own damn flight.
So I'm trying to book a flight on United or JetBlue, and then I'm like, wait a second,
I go in the app and it's like book, click, done.
And like getting a JetBlue flight now, United not so much, but they're working on it.
But JetBlue, Bonvoy, and United, which is kind of my thing, they're kind of like as easy
as Uber, Eads, DoorDash, and Uber now. Not quite.
They're 80%, 85% of the way there?
That one, luckily, I feel like I never went full time.
There are things that I'm bad at being talent about.
For example, I'm always trying to produce everything that I'm doing, which annoys producers.
I never got so far.
I still like book my, I'm a very, I'm kind of a control freak, so I prefer to book my own
shit.
Like the meetings and stuff like that.
Yeah.
I did not know.
And I keep waiting for everybody else to book my meet, to book the meeting.
Like, I'm like, yeah, you book it.
You put the time on my.
calendar. Right. That's what you actually in this case you should do that. That's what the producers
are good at. Because that also gives them an excuse to talk to the subject, maybe do a pre-interview
or, you know, check their tech. So that's actually a virtuous thing. Oh, 100% when it's related to the show.
But now when it's like a fellow investor who's going to teach me some stuff that I need to know,
I'm like, oh, yeah, no, I need to book that. Yeah, what is, tell me, what do you think it's your
etiquette for? Because the calendar thing is amazing where I can be like, let's not have 19 emails
about when you're free. Here's the calendar link. Yeah. But it does feel,
a bit like a power play to be like, here's my calendar.
No, I think it's the opposite.
I think that's being like, I think that's like total submission.
It's like, right?
It's totally like your call.
Here's everything open.
True.
It's you make the decision.
I'm available to you.
Here it is.
So I think it's like the ultimate like, you know, submissive like, yeah, just I'm at
your be back and call when you need me.
When you schedule me, I'll be there.
I'll be there.
Just you put it on my calendar for when works best for you.
I think that it's,
That's pretty great.
I mean, it's an incredible innovation.
Like, I think I'm just going to put it in my signature and be like, go crazy.
Be careful with that.
Because once your calendar gets out there, you will, what you'll find as an investor is all
the sudden, the calendar just gets too filled.
Like, what just happened?
Such as today, I was two minutes late to our recording.
Two minutes.
Two minutes.
Because all of a sudden, I noticed I had meetings from nine to 11.
I was like, oh, whoops.
And then you start getting board meetings on this.
And you're taping pods.
It gets a little busy, but you have good stamina
to talk, and that's what it's really about.
And one of the nice things about when you do
taking presentations and pitches is
you're kind of like a sniper, right?
You don't have to carry the conversation.
You're like, so, would you like to show me your deck
or do a product demo?
And they're like, show you the deck.
And now seven minutes, 10 minutes,
you just put yourself on mute, you take notes,
and you think.
I love that.
To me, that's like a great respite.
It's super energizing.
Yeah, just sit there, just let it.
Yeah, tell me everything.
Let it wash over me for 10 minutes.
I get to think about it, contemplate it, and I get to vibe the person.
I used to interrupt people a lot.
What about this?
What about this?
Now I just save all my questions.
I run them down in a notepad or a notion, boom.
And then I'm like, I have five questions.
You know, I might have written down eight, but like I just prioritize.
These are my four questions.
I'm going to tell you all four.
I put the four questions into the Zoom chat.
Oh, boom.
Smart.
So they can just.
And they have them.
Good tip.
Right.
Yeah.
So I.
BC school right here.
It makes me a little more considered.
if I slow down, I write all my questions,
and then I pick which ones I want to ask.
Because I don't have to get all of them answered at that moment.
Yeah, true.
And what you're doing in that first founder investor meeting,
kind of getting a feel for the person.
Like, is this person intelligent?
Are they crisp?
Are they sloppy?
Are they a creative genius?
They savant?
Are they a pitch person?
Are they a product person?
Are they a developer?
Are they weird?
You know?
That was a lot of categories.
That was amazing.
You want to get a read on people, right?
And it's just letting them talk.
I always tell people, let the Mustangs run.
Like, you want to figure out if this horse is fast and you can ride it, let it go.
Just, you know, let the Mustangs run.
I let them talk.
Give them the rope.
Yeah, well, sometimes they talk and they don't have anything to say.
Yeah.
You're like, oh, huh.
I just gave you the floor.
Okay.
All right, there it is.
There's your Sunday VC school.
Boom.
We got a lot of news.
We got to get to.
Let's do it.
We do.
Let's go.
All right.
So we are going to start diving a little more, a little more often into the
creator economy. We've already started some of this with the OK Boomer segment, of course,
with Rachel Braun interviewing, you know, the youngs. But also, this is a huge economic force.
And every one of these creators is essentially a founder doing a little baby startup, a small
business, and figuring out the best way to make money. And it turns out that over the last
couple of days, it's become increasingly clear that one of the ways to not make any money is to be on
TikTok, which is a big decision.
It's shocking. That's a big discovery because I thought TikTok was huge.
TikTok is huge for sure, right? It's a massive market force. People are doing a ton of work to be on TikTok and get famous on TikTok.
And also, you can rack up hundreds of millions and even billions of views and basically make pennies. And it's what's really interesting is that creators all of a sudden in the past few days, because, you know, look, when you're a creator, it's, you have this weird power dynamic.
because the platform is in charge in some ways of your life.
And so it's taken some pretty big creators,
Mr. Beast and Hank Green, who is like OG creator,
gets tons and tons and tons of views, big YouTuber,
did a video on YouTube basically being like,
we got to be honest about this.
The economics of TikTok are terrible.
So Forbes reported.
Let's get into the, I want to know the numbers,
because I have my own theory here
that people are equating a year,
YouTube view, which might be longer form, with a TikTok view, which is a quickie-swipy and very
short. So maybe there's some metric issues here. Let's get into the numbers. Yeah. No, that makes a
much sense. Okay. So the data is hard to come by. However, Mr. Beast posted a fund dashboard based
on TikTok and said he had 200 million likes in 2021, one billion views on TikTok, but only made $15,000.
Okay, one billion of views equals $15,000.
$15,000.
So Charlie Demilio has 133 million followers.
She earned $17.5 million last year.
That was TikTok's top earner.
But like many creators, lots of creators have discovered they need to diversify away from just streams and likes.
And so a lot of them have merch.
That's how Charlie Demilio is making all of her money, her clothing line and promoting products in TikTok video.
and other ads. That's also the case with Instagram. Instagram doesn't have a fund to pay creators
directly, or at least didn't, I think, for a long time. They mostly make money through these
influencer and merchandise deals. But if Charlie DeMilio, who uploaded 322 videos in 2021 and racked up
two billion likes and 10 billion views, if she's earning money at the same rate as Mr. Beast,
she would have earned $150,000. It makes sense. So we need to do some back of the envelope math,
like we are prone to do here.
We need a sting for that, by the way.
Like, don't we need a little, like a sound effect for that?
Like a calculator.
Like a calculator.
Like, or one of those old, um, tiny, uh, registers.
Remember the ones we go, and then you hit the enter and it.
So we need that kind of thing.
We need a sting for back and a envelope.
Yeah, a little.
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this week in startups. We really do appreciate it. So when I was on YouTube, I was part of their
creators program. I wrote a famous piece. Like I don't want to work on YouTube's farm no more,
like Maggie's farm from Bob Dylan. And I was just like, you know, they take 55 percent,
or they give us 55 percent. They take 45 percent. It's just going to be really hard to make this into
a sustainable business. And that's become true. But you still make millions if you're a top creator
or hundreds of thousands or tens of thousands.
Yeah.
So people have figured out how to make it work,
but the CPMs, the cost per thousand views
that you can charge an advertiser for,
it tended to be somewhere between two and seven dollars net to the creator.
So if you got a thousand views, you made two bucks,
10,000 views, 20, 100,000 views, 200,
and a million views, $2,000.
So a million view video on YouTube could make
two to $7,000 in average,
advertising from YouTube.
And YouTube, it was very low at the beginning.
It was sub $1.
And then it slowly went up as they got more advertisers and they increased the number of ads.
So what's the big complaint on YouTube?
Ads.
Too many ads.
Too many ads.
And you have to make these really long, boring videos because 10 minutes now is the standard for a YouTube video
so that you can get like two ad breaks in there.
Ah.
So, yeah, because now they're putting ads into the middle of the videos, which is super annoying,
which is why I pay for the YouTube Pro account, which is the greatest.
deal in
all of media,
I believe.
So if you were to look
talking about CPM,
I think we're talking
about a one to two
cent CPM.
Okay.
If we were to do
the back of the envelope
math here,
I think that math is correct.
Somebody can check me on it.
We'll make a Google
sheet later.
So if you went from,
let's back up to the numbers here,
two billion,
10 billion views and you earn
$150,000.
Right, something like that.
One to one and a half cent.
Yeah.
So what's happening here
I think we have to look at,
Molly is, how are these views different? Well, the view is, when does it count as a view on TikTok?
One second, five seconds, at what point you actually consider it a view in their metrics?
They're incented at TikTok to give you more views because it makes you feel better, right?
Yeah.
So they would be incented when you hit maybe, I would guess, two or three seconds of a video,
they count that you got a view.
So if I swiped by and I swiped immediately in under three seconds, maybe I don't get the
Over three seconds I do.
I don't know how they do it on TikTok.
So that is making people conflate
what is a quality view.
That is, in YouTube terms, a monetizable view.
Yeah.
So I think there's a lot of,
I would guess, half the views on TikTok
are not monetizable.
So you cut the number in half.
You obviously double the CPM.
And then TikTok might not be showing
that many ads early
because they're trying to get people addicted
to the service.
Once people are addicted and they hit scale,
then they'll do what YouTube did,
which was, hey, we know you have no choice
but to use YouTube.
We're going to give you a ton of ads.
Get used to hitting 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, skip ad.
There's also fundamentally not a consistent way
for creators to get paid.
So you have two things going on.
One is that.
And look, it is probably easier to rack up
a lot of views on TikTok on a 30 second to two-minute tops,
you know, on a super short clip.
Versus Peter Notabom, thank you,
Notagang, for saying that the minimum,
the required length for mid-roll.
is now eight minutes on YouTube down from 10.
So you can have an eight minute video and still get a middle.
But here's the difference in how creators actually get paid.
TikTok has a fund, right?
A big fixed pool of money that it uses to pay all the creators.
And TikTok essentially takes 95% of the revenue.
So only 5% of the revenue that they earn from these creators is paid back to them.
Whereas YouTube, which we used to think was crazy, pays creators 55% of their ad
revenue. So they're incentivized to get more views, which frankly does not seem to be the case on
TikTok, right? You're sort of incentivized to get views, but you just really are incentivized to get
external merch deals or influencer deals. So you have this sort of difference. And here we should actually,
here's a mashup basically of two clips, a minute and 25 seconds of Hank Green, who is such a good
explainer explaining how the math works. Uh, see you on the other side. I used to make five cents per
on TikTok.
What happened?
What changed?
The pool of money is the same size.
Why am I making less per view?
Because there are more views on the platform.
It's grown.
There are more creators.
There are more users.
TikTok is earning more money.
But the pool is the same size.
So there are more views with the same number of dollars, so you make fewer dollars per view.
Literally.
When TikTok becomes more successful,
TikTokers become less successful.
What?
If TikTok had the same thing,
TikTok had the same partnership with creators that YouTube has, TikTokers would be making at minimum 16 cents per thousand views.
That is six times. Six times what they are making now.
Every creator in the creator fund who thinks to themselves, wow, $1,000 a month, that's $12,000 a year,
that person could be a full-time creator. They could be thinking about expanding, about hiring,
about creating a business in their community for their audience.
This is the economic engine that drove YouTube forward, and TikTok is just letting it leak out of the tub into their bottom line.
This change would not increase the number of full-time TikTokers by six times.
It would increase it by a thousand times.
Because just from the structure of the platform, the number of creators making $6,000 a month is a thousand times more than the number of creators making $1,000 a month.
It's not wrong.
Not wrong.
And, yeah, it's just, I think what you have to do.
to look at is maybe I would do a 20 to one ratio of views from TikTok to YouTube to normalize.
So if you're 20 to 1 it, if he's saying 5 cents, you know, 20 times 5 cents, a dollar.
So if you do 25 to 1, maybe you start understanding the qualitative nature of monetizable views on
YouTube versus TikTok.
Because how often do you see an ad on TikTok?
maybe every 10 swipes up.
I feel like never, yeah.
I don't know.
I just keep rolling.
I mean, I guess I eventually do.
Yeah, I think it's every 10 maybe.
Maybe it's every 15.
So I think they're lightly monetizing it, number one.
I think the ads are less effective because people don't know how to use the platform yet.
Like, I don't know what ad format actually works when people are moving at that violent of a pace.
Like, are you, if you're in that TikTok hypnotic zone, because they,
I mean, that is like the fentanyl of social media, I have to say.
It definitely is, yeah.
Like, man, holy cow, that gets you like in the zone.
So, like, an hour can go by and you're like, I don't remember anything I watch.
Right.
But I watched a bunch of stuff that I couldn't stop watching.
It's really weird.
It's like some dystopian, like, remember in Clockwork Orange?
They pinned his eyes open.
Totally.
It's just like that.
It's like, that's how I feel when I put on TikTok.
I'm like, this is horrible.
this person is dancing
and I don't know their age
and they're talking about things
that I don't think at their age
they should be talking.
It's like watching euphoria.
I don't know what's happening in your algorithm
but mine is literally all like huskies
who because I'm obsessed with how they howl
and other cute animals.
Like interspecies interactions.
Like all in and this weekend startups,
Lizzo, a couple of impersonators
and then people dancing.
And like I'm watching these people dance
and I'm like,
really don't know like what the algorithm is showing me here, but do you watch this show Euphoria
by chance?
I haven't seen it, but I know it.
I know of it.
Euphoria is like watching like, do you ever see Requiem for a Dream?
Mm-hmm.
Like, Bennett.
Yeah, I'm out.
I'm out.
I'm not watching Euphoria.
Like, euphoria is Requiem for a Dream plus high school musical.
Like, it's like a bunch of Disney kids doing stuff that Disney kids should not be doing, drugs, sex, whatever.
And I feel like that's where.
like TikTok eventually just
like it's just horrible
I really wish the service did not exist
and when I see kids on it
I'm just like, ohi
what if they're just watching the Huskies
I don't think
I don't know if you saw that Wall Street Journal
article. I know they're not watching the Huskies it's true
I mean they're basically political it's really
interesting
I think it is siops from the Chinese
against America I know it sounds
crazy but I think they want to polarize
America and that
That's why it just kind of goes to our worst.
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Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa.
You think TikTok wants to polarize America more than Facebook already successfully has and more
than YouTube, which like I think it's more effective.
All I ever watch on the internet, because I don't spend a lot of time on this, all I ever
watch is like cute animals and yoga.
I do yoga with Adrian on YouTube.
And I can be on YouTube for a grand total of six minutes before it's like, would you
like to watch this video about red pilling?
They like every freaking time I am on YouTube, it is recommending some video to me that's like,
hey, do you want to hear about how women are the worst or do you want to hear about like
Jordan Peterson vaccines, right.
Vaccines were invented by TikTok huskies.
Like, I don't think anybody's got a monopoly on attempting to polarize Americans.
I just think that they're better at it.
I think the Chinese are better at it because they instead of, you know, like your feed on
YouTube is supposed to be for Molly, mine's supposed to be for me.
It's supposed to be based on our watchtimes on various things.
So maybe you watched a little Joe Rogan and it gave you some Sam Harris or vice versa,
and it got you to Ben Shapiro or whatever.
But I think TikTok is just like I said,
is ever does that.
TikTok only ever gives me cute animals exclusively.
It is never not given me cute animals.
Anyway, we're going to kick this.
TikTok needs to be kicked out of the United States.
Well, we do want to know.
Okay, well, so then you don't care.
This is all working for you because YouTube is winning the creator monetization wars.
I think it's very interesting because it's like, this has been a tale is
old as time, right? In user-generated content, which you and I grew up on, which is, what is
the responsibility of the platform to compensate the people who make the platform exist by creating
content? YouTube has been somewhat good at this. They have also been the only game in town.
Now they have a TikTok competitor called Shorts, and they created a $100 million fund to start paying
people for making, you know, effectively TikToks. They are expanding the way creators can make money,
including these technologies such as NFTs,
and they're letting people make and sell digital goods.
And so this is an opportunity.
Frankly,
this is a competitive opportunity.
Like TikTok might end up just not being popular enough for creators
or popular with creators who are actually looking to make money because they can't.
Yeah, I mean, on all these platforms,
I would look at them as like,
they're taking advantage of you.
You need to take advantage of them.
So how does one of us,
as a creator, take advantage of them.
Well, if you own emails, phone numbers, RSS subscribers, and a brand,
those are things you actually own.
Like your RSS feed is yours.
And when people try to get rid of your RSS feed,
they get rid of email addresses,
they get rid of phone numbers.
That's when you actually lose.
Followers and subscribers on these services are not yours.
As Facebook showed, they took away your follower account.
You couldn't reach them.
You had to pay to reach them.
YouTube, you used to reach all your followers.
and subscribers all the time, then they decide, you know,
how many of your subscribers you show up on their main feed, right?
And so I look at all these and just say,
how do we build the This Week and Starburst brand, the All In brand, whatever?
How do we collect more emails?
How do we get in touch with our true fans?
And how do we build that deep, meaningful relationship with them,
which Mr. Bees and other people are realizing and learning,
which is, you know, can I get 10% of my subscriber accounts email?
And that's how I would look at it.
what percentage of your follow account on TikTok
do you have their email addresses?
Do you have the ability to directly contact them
when you have a new product or service?
Because at some point,
they will delete your account or possibly, right?
So just be independent of the platforms.
They'll demonetize you.
You know,
for everything I just said about YouTube,
finding more ways to compensate creators,
just as many creators have been demonetized
for various reasons.
They change the algorithm or now
you have to have an eight-minute video
or this or that, right?
Like, they don't love you back.
these platforms, you feed them, and then your job is to do the best you can to figure out alternate
revenue streams. And the smart creators all know this. That's why they have merch. That's why they have deals.
That's why in some cases they have middlemen. They've got managers and agents, because that's the only way
to really make money that you own. If you want to be a proper publisher, you need to have a relationship
with the talent. You need to have a relationship with your customers, a direct relationship
of your customers and a direct relationship with advertisers. What these platforms do is they abstract those
things away from you. So you're the talent. So you have control over that. But you don't have a
direct relationship with your customers, your listeners, your viewers, and you don't have a direct
relationship with the advertising. So they make it easier for you by taking away two-thirds of
the work of being a publisher. So what you need to do as a publisher is take ownership of those
three pillars of the stool. And so people have come to me over and over again, hey, we'll produce
this week in startups, make it part of our network. We'll produce all in. I'm like, nope, I would
rather control the content. Thank you. Then they're like, oh, we'll sell your ads. You'm like,
nope, I have two in-house ad sales executives. We have direct relationship with the advertisers.
We talk to them. We understand what their goals are, et cetera, not you. And then, oh,
what about the customers? Well, we have a direct line to them. We have them following us across
20 platforms. We have their emails, et cetera. And I think that's really the best thing you can do as
a publisher. And everybody who hits any level of scale realizes this.
and then starts acting in their own interests,
which is developing direct relationships with sponsors.
Yeah.
That's how you turn your creator gig into a business.
Boom, Professor J-Cal.
That's it.
It's a three-legged stool,
and you just have to ask yourself,
are you balancing on one leg of the stool, your talent?
That's what a lot of these people are doing.
And then Mr. Beast, well, I know he has direct relationships with partners.
He has direct relationships with his customers, right?
therefore his stool is nice and steady, right?
That three-legged stool much stronger.
And Brand becomes like the fourth leg of the stool.
So I would say, you know, he probably has three of those four nice and stable.
Well, and I do think that's actually what's interesting, not to belabor this,
but that's what I actually do think is interesting about this specific economy, the creator economy,
is that because Brand is now a leg of the stool in the way that it didn't used to be,
creators can potentially afford to give away some of the control.
They don't necessarily, it's sort of like cloud computing, right?
They don't necessarily have to build the infrastructure to become a publisher.
They could outsource that infrastructure to TikTok or YouTube, but they still have to construct
the other legs around it, the, you know, owning the relationship with your users or your
listeners or your viewers.
This is where having Patreon or subscribers works, right?
So you see a lot of folks saying, you know what?
instead of having the direct relationship
and monetize to the advertisers
like they could
negatively impact the content
therefore I'm going to rely on this other
leg of the three or four-legged stool
heading on how you build it and they say
you know what this stool will be stronger
if I'm getting the money from the
from my Patreon right like Red Scare
does or other folks or
Tom Merritt
yeah it's a we do a show called it's a thing that's
Patreon it's a thing that's Patreon right and so if it makes
a couple of thousand a month or whatever, it's going to not need advertisers.
And then his Daily Tech Roundup show, I think makes like 15, 20K a month.
Yeah.
So he was working for Leo.
They had a dispute, I believe, over his pay.
He left to do his own Daily Tech news show.
And probably he arguably makes the same, but has control, right?
And he's able to do that because of that one tool, which is brand, right?
Yeah, Daily Tech News show.
His brand, right.
And my friend Sam Harris, when I got him into podcasting, and I helped him set that up and talked to him about it, he went with Patreon because he talks about terrorism. He talks about atheism. Like, it's just not good for advertisers. Like, Casper does not want to be in the middle of that discussion of Islamic terrorism slash, you know, atheism, whatever. Go figure. But he was on Patreon. Then he realized, wait a second, Patreon can cancel me because Patreon started canceling people who said things that people didn't like. And he was just like, I can set up a
Stripe and do it on my website.
So he literally left Patreon and he was making,
he was what I,
he didn't disclose, but I know the number,
you know, well into the,
you know, two comma territory a year from his fan base.
And he was like, I don't want to have Patreon.
Then be able to do this into media.
I mean, I'll just go direct with Stripe.
And then there's like this edge case where
could the cancel culture or could you do something
so controversial that Stripe doesn't want to,
you know, like OnlyFans, right?
And some of those places had a hard time
getting credit card companies to do stuff.
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Speaking of this question of who controls. Who owns? Who controls? Super dishy post. People are just speaking the truth or their truth, right? There's this sort of interesting thing where it's like,
I'm going to take to the public.
And in the case of these creators, it was about TikTok.
In this case, it is a founder, Bolt founder and CEO, Ryan Breslo, who appeared on episode 1313 of this week in startups, posted a thread on Twitter yesterday, accusing Stripe and Y Combinator of being, not just being, but sort of colluding as the mob bosses of Silicon Valley.
Spicy.
Yeah, it was unpacking.
It was super dishy.
So here's some basics.
Yeah, let's go through what he said specifically.
Yes.
And let's start with sort of like some context.
Bolt is one-click checkout software, right?
Sort of competes with Stripe's payment APIs, not perfectly direct, but close enough.
And his first tweet was Stripe and Y Combinator, the mob bosses of Silicon Valley, a threat.
Spicy.
Dun, done, done.
At this point, I paused the show, made some popcorn, poured some bourbon, and came on back to my chair.
essentially Breslo is claiming that Stripe bullies fintech competitors with Y Combinators help because the two, evidently, according to Brezla, work closely together. This is true.
Stripe is a Ycombinator darling.
Stripe competes indirectly with Bolt.
Bolt interviewed for YC with, according to Brezlo, strong traction, a good team, and was declined.
Then Brezlo claims Stripe raised money from many of the top VCs.
in order to actively block other payments companies from raising from those same BCs.
Reslo also claims Stripe and YC control Silicon Valley Media via Hacker News.
So they have a whole ecosystem of control here.
He explained how a Bolt product release went to number one on Hacker News and then shortly after that,
were displaced by a strike post, which was basically about the same topic.
Reslo also claimed that Stripe funded a pre-launch one-click checkout competitor.
called Fast. That CEO, Dom Holland, was on episode 1103.
You can skip that episode.
Oh, okay, so back to Hacker News.
Breslo said that because Hacker News is owned by Y Combinator, it rigs the rankings to
pump Stripe product releases to number one.
And that's why Bolt's post about payments got bumped down all of a sudden.
And that all of a sudden, Stripe basically stood up a checkout competitor at the same
valuation and with more capital just to fight off Bolt.
interesting yes all right this caused some twitter yes as you might imagine yeah and as she'll um i think
put out a good post which is like listen it's pretty amazing the list of investors in stripe
and drace in harwoodsacoia founders general catalyst coastla kana perk it's redpoint thrive
goo gv capital g tiger dsts v angels 500 startups y c m mccccccccccccccccccc what stripe did here
is a classic playbook um and if you get
a bunch of different Silicon Valley people to invest.
They only invest in one company in a category,
sitter distasteful,
with the exception of accelerators and platforms like the syndicate or angelist,
to double down and invest in multiple people in a category.
It does happen from time to time that people will pivot their business,
so you get a conflict.
But if you invested in Uber,
you were probably not supposed to invest in Lyft,
because they were direct, direct competitors.
And so what Uber did was it got a lot of investors,
and it was pretty clear.
I think everybody knew,
if you invested in Lyft,
you were basically choosing them over Uber.
If you invested in Shrive,
you're picking them over other competitors.
This is a pretty pragmatic,
non-controversial.
Non-controversial strategy.
But it does, in fact, act like a blocker.
And it reminded me of marriage story
where, you know,
if somebody met with a divorce attorney,
but didn't even hire them,
but they had paid them the deposit.
They now had a conflict,
so you couldn't hire that divorce attorney.
So there's this concept in Hollywood
where like the high-profile divorces,
I think it was Heidi Klum or somebody like that,
went and met with the top 10 divorce attorneys,
put them all on retainer,
told them what their fears were about their divorce.
Now those firms can't represent her spouse
because they're conflicted out
because she gave them the $5,000.
retainer. So if you really are divorcing in some multi-billion dollar thing, you can conflict out
the other side's potential counsel. That's kind of what you're doing here, right? Right.
I think that's like a high-level divorce strategy. So there is some truth, even if it's not a
collusion situation. The truth is that if all of these huge names have already invested in Stripe,
then if you come along in your bolt, you are kind of out of luck. You are. And then the person,
let's say it's Red Point or Founders Fund on this list,
they want to own more shares of Stripe.
They got to buy a tiny taste in the Series B.
Now they want to put more in the C&D with their late stage fund.
They don't want to piss off the brothers.
Therefore, they don't do that.
Now, Y Combinator, actually, it's kind of false.
Why Combinator wanted to accept them the second time.
Why Combinator bets on all kinds of conflicting people.
In fact, that's created a little bit of controversy.
So if you're Airbnb or Stripe and 20 different people,
come in who want to compete with Airbnb and Stripe,
that Y Combinator is going to accept you.
And if you create the Y,
the companies in outside the US that compete with Airbnb and Stripe,
they'll bet on you as well.
And that has been a point of contention,
but the fact is like these are very early stage companies.
Where they start is never where they finish.
They always pivot.
So when you're Y Combinator or any accelerator,
tech stars are accelerator,
watcher accelerate, you really can't offer exclusivity
because it's just too many companies
and they change their business models three times
in the first year or their, you know, their target customers often.
So you never know where they're going to wind up.
We've had people, you know, start in a place and then they're like, you know what,
we should be doing what, you know, Robin Hood is doing or com or Uber and they pivot into
those and, you know, puts me in a position where when I go talk to the founders of those
companies that I'm invested in, I'm like, and they pivot into that.
But the good news is if you want to buy them at some point, you can use us as a bridge.
So we could help.
So there's an expression that I heard early on, no conflict, no interest in private
markets. So no conflict, no interest. This whole thing is a mess and conflicted. People will throw the
same criticism at me. Oh, J-Cal's going to have, you know, whoever on this podcast because he's an
investor room. Well, of course I am. Am I going to have their competitors on the pod? Yes, I've had
Lyft on the pod. Would I have SOFI or, you know, headspace on the pod? Sure. You know, like, am I racing
out to do that? Maybe not. But, you know, so you're going to be conflicted all over the place.
As another venture capitalist friend said, when you have a company that's a large competitor in a space, like, yes, they will crush you when it comes to fundraising.
Yes, they will talk to every VC.
There is some, it seems that there is clearly some truth to the sharp elbows here.
There is probably a replicatable strategy of taking a little bit of money from every big name in the valley so that you can, like you said, box out, you know, future competitors.
the question is, is it somehow coordinated?
Is it a colluding thing?
You know, somebody in a Nodigang says YC does act as a gatekeeper to protect monopolies created by them?
No.
They invest in the competitors.
So the truth is that they invest in competitors of people they've already invested in.
They do it on the regular.
So the evidence is different.
Now, if you look at Hacker News, if you consider Hacker News,
The YC alumni social news site, it's like a subreddit of YC founders.
That's what it is.
It's 70, 80, 90% YC founders.
They all know each other.
It doesn't say YCombinator on the site, really, except for the URL.
But you can be sure the mods, it's run by YC, it's controlled by YC.
So yes, anything with Stripe.
Now, is it coordinated?
Probably not.
What it is is Stripe has the inside line.
They come speak at YC.
they offer them probably special deals
and YC partners encourage them
because they own 6% of the companies
where the $100 billion,
it's a $6 billion position
for Y Combinator.
It's probably one of their biggest,
if not the biggest,
most meaningful position along with Airbnb.
Therefore, everything in that world is going to lean towards it.
Just like you might hear me say,
like if somebody's like, oh, I've got to get a lift.
I'm like, you mean Uber.
You know, or somebody's like, I love DoorDash.
I'm like, you should try Uber.
It's more like that kind of a thing
where you're enthusiastic,
but not a coordinated attack.
but I understand why it feels like a coordinated attack.
Totally.
And I can, I really like the way that you're putting it makes perfect sense because of course
there isn't going to be some, look, it's not journalism, right?
It's not like church.
Like there's there is bias.
There is bias built into the system and that bias is equity.
Yes.
Equity equals vote.
Equity equals vote.
You show somebody's your, you show me somebody's equity holdings.
I will show you their opinion.
Totally.
Basically, right?
Because in, and that's not.
just that the equity informs the opinion. It was that the opinion resulted in you buying the equity.
Totally. So there's a consistency to this, right? I believed in Travis, I voted with my dollars to put
money into Uber. Therefore, my opinion is Uber is a great company. But it's not that I was just
randomly gifted Uber over lift shares. I actually picked that company. And therefore,
it's confirmation bias. I bet on that company. Therefore, I will continue to.
to be enthusiastic and promote that company.
Just like people who bought Bitcoin over Ethereum or vice versa or Solana, you know,
you can tell how much crypto somebody owns in the first five minutes of meeting them
because they will tell you to buy that crypto.
Right.
Totally.
But that's such a great point that I just want to reiterate.
It's not that like if you're promoting a company, if you, YC, Stripe, Jason, Sequoia,
me, like, if we're promoting something, promoting a company, having a portfolio company
on the podcast, it's not because like they tricked us.
or paid us off or gave us free stuff, it's because we picked them.
Right. So there's cause and correlation. So what's happening here is
this person feels they're being attacked on all sides.
Yeah. Which would be how you would feel if your competitor was supported by
everybody in the industry and this news site that you're conflating with the New York
Times was spiking your story and promoting other ones. It's not the New York Times
that's doing this. It's Y Combinator
alumni social network that's doing it,
aka Hacker News.
And it's news.Ycombeator.com for a reason.
It's not hackernews.com. It's
news.wikonator.
The people at alumni at Y Combinator
are talking about the news.
Yeah. This is where producer Nick
reads my mind and says, remember what
Frank Slutman said. Business is war.
Kill your enemies or they will
kill you.
There's no doubt about that. I mean, you
do have to be aggressive in this regard.
think actually this tweet stream is an attempt to get attention you always fight up so i give the founder
here credit for seeing an opportunity to get in the headlines okay if i can't get on hacker news
and that channel's burned okay where can i get on oh i can trend on twitter by attacking ycombinator
which has a built up animosity towards it there's so much animosity towards ycombinator from two groups
of people. Founders who didn't get in. So you left them at the altar. You didn't accept them.
They weren't, you know, they weren't led into the club. So you got all that built up in animosity.
And then you have the animosity of everybody who's in the venture community who's jealous of them
getting 7% of a company for 100 grand. And people who don't get in at a $2 million valuation
like they do or $1.8 million valuation. So you have that animosity. So whenever you bring up
somebody who's got that good of a deal, my lord, it's going to be like,
That's where you're going to get all these people who are going to retweet this and be like,
oh, yeah, F those guys, you know.
They suck.
And the reason is they're successful, you know, and they have a disproportionate amount of power and good for them.
You know, they built a great platform.
It's just not a fair, it's not an industry built on fairness.
But you fight every way you can.
And so in some ways, kudos to Bolt's CEO for getting all this attention and, you know,
potentially some new investors.
Savvy.
I mean, this is high-level jiu jihadism.
This is high-level media jiu-jitsu kung-fu.
I always tell people, like, if you want to get into a fight with people,
just be careful.
And with Y Combinator,
with them doing like this $375,000 blind bet,
like we had done that previously,
I think we influenced them.
And now I'm looking at it going, wait a second.
Okay, now they're making that guaranteed.
I didn't make it guaranteed.
So people don't know this,
but I went to the current accelerator class.
I said to the seven companies,
hey, five of the companies did not have an open note.
I said to all five,
$8 million,
$500K,
would you like this term sheet?
We'll syndicate you for $500K for $8 million
right now at the start of the accelerator.
All five said yes.
So since all five said yes,
now I will come out
in the coming months and I'll announce
we have a better deal than Y Combinators.
So to Frank Slotman's thing,
your competitors do something
and we're marginally competitors.
I mean, it's not like we can't invest in YC
companies or they can invest in our companies.
Of course you can.
And they do, but I think you do have to take a warlike stance in this regard.
Conflict equals drama.
All right, let's do one more quick story.
The drama.
Let's do the startup of the day.
Oh, great.
I'll do this one.
Kaldesack is a startup building.
A car-free neighborhood.
Brilliant in Tempe, Arizona.
They claim 52% of Americans want to live in a walkable neighborhood, but only 8% do.
I agree.
My neighborhood is a fancy-dancy neighborhood with no sidewalks,
when I lived in Brentwood in L.A.
It was a fancy, dancing neighborhood.
And these maniacs in these two neighborhoods
I've lived in my life do not want sidewalks
because they don't want people walking outside their homes.
It's infuriating because if you want to go for a run
or ride your bike or take your kids on a bike ride,
you have to risk their goddamn lives
and it's annoying as heck.
So stupid rich people.
Oh, stupid rich people.
It's like such a stupid.
Bel Air does the same thing.
No sidewalks in Bel Air.
Everybody's on an acre a lot,
but they can't have like 10 seconds of, you know,
10 feet of sidewalk is ridiculous.
So quote from their fundraising announcement of $30 million.
With record increases in congestion, loneliness, traffic fatalities and global warming, building a new option for the way we live has never been more important.
Never been more important.
30 million was led by Coast Club with participation for Founders Fund, initialized and others.
Valuation was disclosed.
I'll say it was for 20% of the company, which puts out $150 million post money valuation is my guess.
guess. Yeah, informed guests. You know, those kind of folks would want to own about 20% of the company. So that would equal a 120 pre, 150 post on probably within 10, 20% of that number. First neighborhood will officially open sometime later in 2022. Here's a 3D rendering of what the community will look like. I mean, what's so interesting about this is it really is a planned development and they're starting to do more of this in a couple of European cities. It's become a little bit of an experiment. And the truth is like they're right in saying that 52% of people want to live like this. You've got people.
on their bikes and they're walking around and there's cafes where you can sort of just like
sit outside. It's perfect for COVID time because there's lots of outdoor spaces. It's also in
Arizona. So they have potentially a benefit. The Nodang is saying, damn, this metaverse is nice,
which is totally true. But look, we know from just real estate stats, right? Like my real estate agent
calls it the, what is it, the $100,000 coffee is what he calls it. He's like, people will pay $100,000
over what they otherwise would have paid because they think they can walk to coffee.
and they want to do that.
I mean, it is 100% something that people value and want to do, not to mention a, I mean,
I would have, this is like, this is a deal that had I been in this job a few years ago,
because I've been hearing about Calde SAC for a while, like, I would have thrown money at this
because it is a game changer.
Yeah, and if you look at it, you know, you're going to have less CO2 emissions, so that's good
for the planet.
You have more convenience.
If you have kids and dogs, you can go downstairs, not worry about them getting run over
and hit by cars.
The only thing I ever wonder about with these is,
you know, when I, and this is stupid and pragmatic,
but if an ambulance comes to your house,
can they get to your house if you're on one of these things?
And I think the way they do this is,
these streets are wide enough for an ambulance,
or let's say you had a piano delivered
for them to come get you,
you just have to lower like a gate somewhere
or like, you know, those pylons they put in
with a lock on them,
those, the fire department or police can press a button and have them automatically come down.
And it looks like you could reach any of these apartments with a fire truck or an ambulance.
I think they think that through when they build these.
Interesting.
Brilliant idea.
I'm not sure if this is a venture.
There.
A lot of paranoia.
I wonder how it's a venturism.
Like, you do have this in other neighborhoods.
Like in Venice, they have the walk streets.
And you're always like, it's a walk street.
How do I get my groceries?
They're like, if you've got a lot of groceries, you're going to have wagons.
They have wagons.
Right.
So Coltisack says this location in Tempe is.
the first car-free community built from scratch in the United States. Fifty-five percent of it is open
space. It's got a grocery store, coffee shop, restaurant, bike shop, co-working space, designated
e-bike garages, over a thousand bike racks. Because the truth is, who was it that tweeted this
the other day? Somebody I really like and respect, and I'm just going to steal his tweet because I can't
remember his name right now, but said, you know, Americans think that buying an EV is their like
one-and-done climate, like do-gooder thing? It's all about riding your bike. It really is.
All residents get $3,000 a year in mobility benefits through partnerships with Lived Bird Envoy at $10 a day.
I mean, it is super interesting.
I think you raise a really good question because the company raised over $200 million in real estate capital to purchase locations.
They did not mention how this plays into the series A, which is only $30 million.
So you raise a really good question, which is how is this?
Yeah, because I'm on the board of Blockable, which is building housing in factories.
and so Blockable is doing something similar in this regard.
I'll leave it up to them to when they disclose that or how they disclose it.
But if you're building a real estate project like this,
there are real estate investors who have a desire to make a certain profile
and they have certain tax treatment they want.
You can find those real estate investors up and down Wall Street, Main Street, family offices.
So they will invest on a project by project basis with a certain tax and investment
horizon. Whereas venture folks want to invest in the core technology. So what they do here is each
community, I'm certain, they will find real estate investors offer it to the venture investors if
they want to. But the venture investors want to own the operating company with the technology,
the marketplaces, and whatever else IP there is here. And then they would get, I bet you,
they're going to raise this $200 million to build this community. And then they own 10% of the
community or 20% of the community for building the technology and the infrastructure and the
SaaS software.
That makes sense?
So then after the every five communities they build maybe, let's say they own 20% of it for
building it and the real estate people who underwrote it own 80%.
Every fifth community, this company CaldeSac basically owns an entire community.
So in the same way like Airbnb doesn't own the inventory on their platform, but they do
take 10, 20% of the value out of.
the ecosystem, it's going to be something similar here.
Now, I don't mean to be naive, but how do you make money owning a community?
Like from the businesses that come in, from like a cut of rent?
I think managing it, they would get a management fee for managing this whole thing.
So who knows if they're selling these units or renting them?
If they're renting them, they could be like the management company that manages these
locations.
And you could imagine the software, you could imagine collecting the rent or the storefronts
and all that.
all of that's being managed by a management company that has revenue thrown off.
And it's 100% technology enabled.
And just think about all the ancillary services.
So when they build this pop-up community,
they could have one fiber line come in for $5,000 a month.
And if it does 300 units,
they could be charging $100 per unit,
making $30,000 costing them five,
and you would have better T-1s.
So you start thinking about all those kind of incremental concepts, right?
It's an interesting challenge.
It really is.
I mean,
community building is no joke.
It is super.
I mean,
but this is also,
this is a thing that like cities don't have the will to,
you know,
finance some new construction of a completely new type of neighborhood and bringing
all the businesses.
And so it's like,
if we're going to do this,
I guess this is one of the models that's going to make it happen because it's
sort of how we have to.
All right.
Exactly.
All right.
Maybe we'll just rip through this one really quick.
And, uh,
Andrew,
Palmer Lunky's company.
He doesn't like me.
Unfortunately, because I said something about him in the Oculus days when he left Facebook.
So he won't come on the show, but I'm enamored with what he's doing.
I would love to have him on the pod because I think he's an interesting cat.
He just won a billion dollar contract with the U.S. Department of Defense for its counter drone technology.
I love Palmer Lucky as like a maniac entrepreneur, does crazy stuff in the world like Oculus and this.
So I find him a fascinating person.
Contract will be paid out over the next 10 years by U.S.
Socom special operations command super cool.
Palmer Lucky tweeted the exact number of the contract.
Boom.
It's a five-year-old company.
Honestly, if I were a five-year-old company that landed a billion dollar contract,
I also would tweet out the exact amount.
I would have included the pennies.
I love, you know, here.
Yeah.
Totally.
I love what he's doing.
I think all this advanced military tech that doesn't require soldiers and to get into like the middle of the fray are cool.
And I think we have to compete with the Chinese who are probably building really advanced drone technology to do things like take over Taiwan eventually.
This guy, I mean, listen, I'm not just saying this.
Like I think it's actually a cool thing for an American to do is to build advanced technology.
I want to go all Tony Stark here.
But like Google not being willing to build this technology or actually.
Apple not being willing to build this technology.
Somebody has to build military technology in case China jumps the fence.
On the Einle.
And decide to say Hong Kong's not enough.
I mean, look, it's fascinating technology.
You're absolutely right.
And I think like the fact that a lot of companies have shied away from this.
We need to now take over Taiwan.
You can and should ask a lot of questions about autonomous drones.
Exactly.
Even if they are meant to attack and kill other autonomous drones, any device that is weapons hot
and capable of making its own decisions.
we should ask a lot of hard questions about,
but as a purely business matter,
if Microsoft and Google have vacated,
Microsoft is still doing government contracts,
but if Google has vacated
and you can land a billion dollar government contract,
like, that's smart business.
And I don't see how we have a choice
to build autonomous AI weapon systems
if China or Russia are going to build them or Iran.
So this may not be something we have a choice over.
Again, this is a big discussion.
But it is.
Let's watch this 90 second video.
So here we go.
Yeah, we're going to narrate this too.
This looks like Star Wars to me.
To be clear, defense workers from anywhere in the world can use Anderil's operating system,
which is called lattice OS.
It sets up, the business is to set up these sentry towers to monitor large areas for
enemy drones using radar and infrared to launch counter drones that can autonomously
attack and destroy enemy drones.
I mean, look, I am a giant action movie fan like this.
love this. Like I can't have a little middle of it. I mean, the other thing is like
Palmer's making stuff that looks rad. So like this thing is like,
looks like a little like R2T2 droid that then flares up a bunch of sensors. And then a
drone comes in and the murder drone's coming to blow some shit up. And somebody's like at
their laptop and they're like, nope, here's a bunch of tiny little Tony Stark missiles. I'm sorry.
Can we talk about the porno shot of like opening the case with all the bullets inside?
Those are like little tiny, beautiful, like, Boba Fett-style rockets.
You know how Boba-Fat has the little rocket pack or like on its wrist or Tony?
And just like, Poo-P-P-P-P-Poo.
Yeah, exactly.
Those are Poo-Poo-Rockets.
I like a P-Poo-Poo rocket, like a nice tiny one that zips in and just gets the job done.
I'm like, I just, all of the parts of my personality are warring with each other right now
because if you could see this drone, knocked this other drone out of the sky,
you would be like, USA, USA.
Yeah.
And you know what?
is awesome and terrifying is so terrifying.
Well, here's the thing.
It's only a matter.
I mean, the next 9-11, God forbid.
It's going to be an autonomous drone.
It's going to be an autonomous drone.
So at some point, Al-Qaeda will figure this out or, you know, Hamas, Hezbollah, whoever,
China.
And they're going to start sending these things and killing innocence.
And they're going to start blowing up buildings like they did on 9-11.
This is the new frontier.
We got to be ready for it.
So let's shoot them out of the sky before they kill our citizens.
Great job.
Palmer Lucky come on the pod sometime.
Come on the pod.
I like Palmer.
And the best part about this is the government realizes insane, crazy, vibrant entrepreneurs
are better at building advanced tech that looks really cool and is effective.
So give Elon the money, give Palmer Lucky the money, give whoever it is the money to build
spaceships, satellites, and let our private sector companies run and let's win.
Because it's existential.
We have to beat the communists and the dictators in the world.
Period.
end of story. That's my feeling I'm sticking to it. I don't know how you feel more. I love it. I feel
as clearly, look, I'm a Gemini. There's two fully formed humans in here and they are in deep
conflict right now because on the one hand, crazy entrepreneurs don't always care if you die in the
process. And when you're starting to talk about rocket ships and moving vehicles that weigh three
tons and autonomous drones, like, you really hope that there's a lot of diligence on the
government side and let's be real there's not. And on the other hand, everything you said.
exactly all right we'll see you next time bye bye bye
