Timcast IRL - Timcast IRL #1105 Trump Sentencing DELAYED, Trump WILL NOT Face Prison Until AFTER Election w/Ivy Lauren

Episode Date: September 7, 2024

Tim, Hannah Claire, & Raymond are joined by Ivy Lauren to discuss Trump's sentencing being delayed in the NY hush money case, Trump responding to Steven Crowder exposing DOJ corruption, Nate Silver's model showing gains for Trump in the 2024 election, and a Michigan appeals court ruling that RFK Jr will have his name removed from 2024 ballot. Hosts:  Tim @Timcast (everywhere)  Hannah Claire @hannahclaireb (everywhere) Raymond @raymondgstanley (X) Guest: Ivy Lauren @ivy.lauren (Instagram) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Donald Trump's sentencing has been delayed. He will not be sentenced until after the election, so the chance of him going to jail before the election is, as of now, probably zero. And with Nate Silver's latest forecast improving, it was already 60-40, now it's 61-38. The prediction is that Donald Trump is going to win this one. So, of course, we have that news, and then, ladies and gentlemen, very big news, which may surprise many of you. Dick Cheney will be voting Kamala Harris. I know. I know people can't believe it. So we'll talk about that. Plus, we've got big economic news. A bunch of major retailers are shutting down. And we've got three stories pulled up from the past day of all these Macy's, LL Flooring. And it's crazy that Lichtman's prediction

for Trump to lose is partially predicated upon the economy being good. He thinks the economy is good. And I'm just like, I don't know how you look at that when stores are closing down, negatively impacting short term

and with hundreds of locations shutting down, that's definitely bad long term. However, he has specific criteria for whatever that really means. So it should be interesting. But we'll talk about that. Before we get started, head over to cast brew.com and buy cast brew coffee. It's our coffee. And with your support, we're going to build coffee shops. We got one currently in the works. But you know what? More importantly, it's great coffee.

It's the best coffee you will ever have. So try Appalachian Nights Rise with Roberto Jr. Stand your grounds. Mr. Bocas Pumpkin Spice Experience. There's only 189 left of the whole bean and there's only 94 bags left of the ground. Mr. Bocas Pumpkin Spice. Once this is gone, it is gone forever. Rest in peace, Mr. Bocas. You know, we knew you well, but support us at Casper. Also head over to TimCast.com. Click join us to become a member and support our work directly. If you think the show and the work we do is good and you want to see it continue, then we definitely need your support as of right now. More than ever, largely, we are preparing a lawsuit against the Kamala Harris campaign for defamation. And we I have reviewed documents. I can't say too much because we're

getting close to making the moves we have to make. But these things do take time, and maybe we'll see something by next week. I don't want to say too much again. So once again, smash that like button, subscribe to this channel, share the show with your friends. Joining us tonight to talk about this and so much more is Ivy Lauren. Hi. I'm so happy to be here. I'm excited.

I am a recent former Mrs. Arizona. I am an ambassador for Turning Point USA. I am an ambassador for Live Action, for Students for Life. And I love creating content around motherhood, around encouraging women to embrace things like motherhood, marriage, and femininity. And, you know, things that aren't really encouraged these days. So, happy to be here. Right on. Thanks for coming. We got Raymond hanging out. Hey, privet, drusia. Welcome, everyone. My happy to be here. Right on. Thanks for coming. We got Raymond hanging out.

Hey, Privet Dursia. Welcome, everyone. My name is Raymond G. Stanley Jr. I'm here on this beautiful Friday, so I appreciate y'all being here. It's a pleasure to meet you. I look forward to talking to you. Thank you. Yeah, it's fun to have you both. Happy Friday, everybody listening. I'm Hannah Claire Brimelow. I'm a writer for SCNR.com, Skinner News. Check out that work at TimCastNews on the internet. Let's get started. Here we go. From NBC News, Judge Judge delays Trump sentencing in hush money case until after November election. The former

president was scheduled to be sentenced on September 18th. A New York judge has delayed Trump sentencing on felony criminal charges. Quote, this is not a decision this court makes lightly, but it is the decision which the which in the court's view best advances the interests of justice. Judge Juan Mershon wrote in the decision handed down Friday. Mershon issued the ruling for Trump's attorneys had asked him to postpone the sentencing until after the election to allow them to appeal a pending ruling involving presidential immunity. That ruling was expected by September 16th, just two days before what would have been the first ever sentencing of a former president on criminal charges. They're going to mention the charges, which we we know. Rashad said in his order Friday

that he took that as the D.A. essentially consenting to the request. Well, let me let me actually say prosecutors from Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg's office said they would defer to the court on whether an adjournment is warranted to allow for orderly appellate litigation of any Trump appeal, but would be prepared to appear for sentencing on any future date the court sets. Marchand said in his order Friday that he took this as the D.A. essentially consenting to the request. He also acknowledged that the case is one that stands alone in a unique place in this nation's history. And so I have to wonder some speculation right now is the reason they're doing

this is because they fear sentencing Donald Trump would actually boost him. And Nate Silver has already got him favored to win. Yeah, it's interesting because Mershon mentions the mitigating factors that's unique to this case, you know, that they're bringing charges or they're trying to sentence one of the major political parties in America as presidential candidates. I think that the lawfare against Trump is losing fuel. I think even gung-ho progressives in these DA's office or in the DOJ that at one time thought that this was going to really be valuable to them realized the clock is running out and that putting Trump behind bars wouldn't have the effect they want. I also think that they they want there to be drama after the election. So they have to keep some things back to be able to say, you know, if he does win, well, then we want that that perp walk photo of this president. You know, is this really who you want to be your president?

Yeah, well, they've seen how the first time around the photo went around with everyone and they see how he had big boost in money. What did he make, like $100 million plus? And this would just. He had some of the best campaign merch of all time. The iconic, iconic mugshot, like sweatshirts and mugs. And that's one of the only times he got back on X at that point. He was sort of there to drop his crazy merch and then leave.

Yeah. I'm wondering, would this have any effect on the gag order? Like, would that continue it so that he is not allowed to talk about certain things until then? Yeah. Yeah.

Then I feel like that's another, you know, they don't like him. They're not doing it to be nice. They want to keep him. They want to keep his mouth shut. That could be largely it. If he gets sentenced,

then he just goes off. Not just about getting sentenced, which may give him a boost. We don't know. Some speculation from a lot of these pollsters is that the American people wouldn't vote for a convicted criminal. But I guess sentencing doesn't matter in that regard if they're claiming he already is. But theoretically, that would release the gag then. And then Trump can say whatever he wants about the case and start crafting a narrative. This actually gives them some control over him. But I guess what's the repercussion for him violating the gag order?

He goes to jail? Yeah, fine. And it's probably going to be contempt of court. I don't think they'd actually put him in jail for this, for contempt of court. I don't know. They're threatening to. They had issued him so many fines. They were like, maybe it's time to put you in court.

I mean, that's really what Mershon obviously wants. And if I'm not mistaken, there's a congressional committee that's calling Merchant's daughter's employer because remember, she was part of a group fundraising off of Trump's legal issues in favor of Democrats. Obviously, I feel like I have to clarify, even though we all know how that goes. You know, I really think that there is a fear that they don't know what to do with Donald Trump. Maybe the gag order is part of it. He doesn't he doesn't talk about it. But I also think that it angers the Democrats when they continue to lose.

Like this wasn't a winning strategy. This wasn't even supposed to be the strongest case against him. And that's the only thing you can get convictions on. Now, this is the Stormy Daniels case, right? The hush money stuff. Yeah, I think that they've quickly found that they have to be really, really careful about what they do.

You know, getting a mugshot of him obviously backfired and didn't do what they wanted it to do. And so I think they knew if they sentenced him, it might have the same effect. And I don't know. I picture them sitting around in like a big boardroom being like, well, if we go here, he's going to do this.

We've got to go here. It's all strategic. And like you were saying, Ms. Rep. Fasonic Stefonic is trying to get him recused because he's got degrees of separation to his daughter, Ms. Murchon. She's trying to get him up because it's a case is law, says a judge dictates that a judge must recuse from a case where a relationship up to including a sixth degree has a financial interest in the outcome of the case. And that is him and his daughter. Yep.

But it's not going anywhere. I don't think it's going to go anywhere. He's going to stay the judge. He's going to go to if it's kind of crazy because this means either Trump wins or he goes to jail after the election's over. This will be really interesting, especially if the election is contested. They lock Trump up while the election is being contested, whether it's in favor or a detriment to him.

Like, let's say he wins, and then the Democrats are like, we're going to contest the election, and then they arrest the president-elect. Or the inverse is even worse. He doesn't win. He challenges the election, or Republicans do, and then he gets arrested mid-challenge.

Here's what I hope. I hope we have election day, and whoever wins, it's rather uneventful, and that's it. And then everyone's just like, okay, well, you know, let's keep working on fighting the good fight and getting culture,

and I just don't think that's a reality. I don't think it's possible. I think there's too much hysteria. I think it's become a very contentious issue for for a lot of reasons. Some people totally justified. But I think people are feeling the drama of the 24 hour news cycle that has fed us into this election in particular. I mean, every election someone says this is beyond all of our nation. But I feel like this year more than ever, because of sort of the number of unprecedented historical events that have happened, people really feel like this is make or break. And that

that tension doesn't just go away on election day. Like even if your candidate wins, you have some kind of momentum. The other side is obviously going to be in reaction to it. And that's sort of the danger. If we can't cool tempers, what do we do? I feel like I'm buying into the hype with the whole, that's the most important election of our lifetime. I keep telling myself, oh, it's just hype. It's just hype.

It is. I say to everyone, but I mean, it actually might be. I can think of all of the elections of my lifetime and none of them were this eventful. That's what I'm saying. You could have completely ignored it. And I was like, OK, I guess, you know, with like Obama, everyone was saying this is the most important one. Obama's going to end the war. And then he didn't.

And I was like, so what really changed? Not a whole lot. Yeah. And then 2012. Oh, come on. Well, I mean, 2004, not really. 2000 was weird. 2004, everybody was pissed off.

And I remember watching the debates or reruns of them. I think this was going on, I think I worked at O'Hare when this was going on, I barely remember or cared. And everyone's like, this is important, you're going to go vote? I'm like, I don't care. And then, whatever, Bush won again and seemed uneventful. Now it's, yo, they're

arresting a lot of people. Lawyers are getting arrested. It's like with Twitter, with X, and with Instagram and other platforms, there's a 24-7 violent mob confined to these social spaces where they don't have the physical capability to go and smash things, but it's just like you take that large group of people and put them in the street with pitchforks and torches screaming, just banging on the ground, and that's the internet. That's media so you you how do you cool those people down you can't can't so to our detriment though it bubbles over i mean it's

definitely gonna bubble over it's we haven't no matter what happens 2025 is going to be 10 times worse than 2024 and 2024 was 10 times worse than 23 so on i think culturally we're getting further and further apart. There's this huge divide, and I feel like people who used to not care so much about politics are jumping on one of the sides, and they have more at stake with every election that happens. So I do think it is kind of hype of being, you know,

this is the most important election, but I also think it actually is. This is the most divided we've ever been, and both sides i think see so much to be lost if they don't win and we're going to war if we don't if we don't win i i don't i don't know that we avoid war at all i don't know at this point how trump stops it i mean look a year ago i was like oh if trump were to win he gets in and he can negotiate the peace but now i don't know that it's possible and yeah man it it seems like certainly there's a better choice with donald

trump than than the democrats you think the dominoes have been hit down yeah and i felt like that was the plan we talked about this earlier in the year that democrats are going to inflame the tensions to the point where even trump won't be able to pull it back because they want to make sure they get their war. And hedging their bets is, well, if Donald Trump does win, at least the war will be at a point where it can't be rescinded. Trump would not be able to give up certain territories, like push the conflict to a point where Trump could not just end it overnight. And then maybe they're hoping they can weather four years of Trump shitty win. And then after that, who are you going to get? You're not going to get another Trump.

That is the most kind of interesting thing about this second term Trump presidency, which is that it is for sure his last, and it's not clear for either party who's coming down the pike. I mean, I think there are a lot of really interesting conservatives in the U.S. who might develop into a possible president of Canada over the next four years. Obviously, J.D. Vance. There's a ton of them. The Democrats feel like more of a mystery to me in that sense. Like if Kamala Harris loses, does she run again? Because she's not I mean, nobody really selected her this time. I obviously think I think I mentioned this before, but I think Gavin Newsom will throw his hat in the ring. Who else? Like what which direction does the Democratic Party go?

Because the end of Trump's potential to be president, meaning if he completes, you know, he runs out of terms, he does two full terms. It's not totally clear where the party goes, but also there is a clear momentum. There is a redefining of the values of the Republican Party that's emerged over the last decade. I don't know what the equivalent on the Democratic side is. They seem more divided to me. Buttigieg? Probably Buttigieg or one of those folks. So maybe, you know.

Buttigieg went into the cabinet and sort of lost all momentum. I think he would have done more if he could have stayed on the state level and put his name on more legislation. Right now he's like, what, didn't show up to the train crash guy and took parental leave when there was all kinds of chaos guy? I don't think – he looks like Alfred E. Newman. You know who that is? No.

Or Mad Magazine. Well, I remember Mad, but I don't know the guy. Yeah, he's the Mad guy. Oh, he's the main character dude? The mascot guy. Okay. I'm not trying to be a dick, you're never gonna be able to unsee that yeah buddha judge doesn't doesn't have the x factor that that presidents need it's very apparent that obama has it it's very apparent that donald trump has it kamala harris does not have it at all uh joe biden barely has any has a little bit, to be fair. Joe Biden's not... I think he had it

more early in his career. Yes, before it became broken, for sure. You're right. I don't see Kamala Harris having that X factor. She comes off like a bit part player,

like Buttigieg or anybody else. But what if now she's like, no, you guys nominated me for president once. I deserve a second shot. Like, she might not be able... She's not...

I mean, she's, what, in her 60s? She might be around for a little while now. What might not be able. She's not. I mean, she's she's what's in her 60s. She might be around for a little while now. What if she sort of Hillary Clinton's it? And like every couple of years throws her hat into the ring. Yeah, I could totally see that. I think she is a horrible candidate, but I do think she has that. Pride of not she wouldn't want to step down.

She wouldn't want to give it up. I would I think that Gavinavin newsom has that though and so i think if they were smart they would plan for him to run but i don't know if she's gonna let that happen um yeah that'll be interesting but i think you're right i think they're a lot more divided because i can only think of a couple people again who could win who yeah the potential well and then there's like the house uh leadership right like hakeem jeffries he's been climbing the ranks for a while. Does he want to make a bid for the president? Like there are other Democrats, but again, it's not like extremely cohesive on the state level. I

think the obvious, the obvious person who wants it is, is Gavin Newsom. But you know, Gretchen Whitmer might decide that she is the girl boss in charge. She's backing Kamala Harris right now. I mean, it's not clear that they know. Maybe they'll develop a plan over the next four years, but it's hard to say. Let's jump to this story. We have this clip from Steven Crowder. President Trump responds to Crowder undercover bombshell.

So the Crowder undercover team recorded the chief public affairs guy from the DOJ saying that the cases against Donald Trump, or specifically the case around his real estate, is a travesty of justice. Donald Trump has responded, and we have this clip here from Crowder. Here we go. There was a story about somebody in Southern District who's highly respected knocking the hell out of both of those cases, say it's an embarrassment they were allowed to be brought. And that's you, my club.

I'm just out to get them. That's why I like the surgery. You know, it's a perversion of justice. And you're spacking charges and rearranging things just to get a case. I think the case is nonsense. Just revealed today, and I hope you're going to do a story because it's a big story. The Southern District of New York was, and this is a very highly respected group of people. He said it was a disgrace that that case was brought.

It was a disgrace that the case was brought in front of Mershon. This guy's probably going to try to lock him up. There is going to be, it's going to be ugly. They're so obsessed with getting him. Who is they? Who is they, though? The case is a disgrace. Should have never been brought.

Should have never been brought. There you go. You saw the fruits of your labor. And like I've said, millions of dollars and months and months of work have gone into it. And it's just the beginning. Hey, take this level of corruption and apply it to without giving it away. Some of the other biggest stories. I want to give a shout out to Steven Crowder for that undercover work. I feel bad for this Nicholas Biase guy,

but I'm also kind of frustrated with him because, man, come on, he's candid in those videos. And you could hear he means what he's saying. Democrats are trying to get Trump. They just won't stop. He issued a statement after the fact saying, oh, I don't actually think those things. It was I was just trying to impress somebody. And it's like, oh, come on, dude.

You were so close to having your dignity and your respect. And we want to give it to you because I appreciate what he was saying on the undercover camera. But it's only going to work if it's backed up by what he says in real life. He should come out and say, it's how I feel. Thank you. And have a nice day. It's not coming from the DOJ. It's coming from me personally. That's what I think. Yeah, I agree. Marshawn mentions in his statement today, you know, the public trust in our institution and law and order is really important. That's a terrible summation, but that's effectively what he's saying. And it's kind of sad that this guy immediately just turned face and was like, oh, I was just trying to impress,

I guess, a girl. And I didn't mean anything I said. I think Americans would feel as if their trust was restored if they knew it wasn't a monolith in this office. But what is this about these undercover videos? It's the same thing with James O'Keefe, where, you know, he sends a woman into a date. She meets with some like executive at a law firm and he's like, let me impress you with some corporate malfeasance I'm involved in. Like, what about a guy going and saying the department that I work for or or the prosecutors here are bad people who are destroying the justice system? How is it impressing a woman? If he was saying like if he was wearing binoculars and a safari cap and he was juggling like some

rare African bird and was like, look what I can do and look where I've been. I'd be like, that's trying to impress somebody. We call that peacocking. But to like talk to a woman and be like, this country is facing a travesty of justice. The Democrats will not stop. Everybody knows, guys, when you're going on a first date,

talk about politics to the woman, especially how you don't like Democrats because everybody knows women, you get my point? Especially in New York. In New York, talking to a woman. They're in Manhattan and he just like meets a girl and he's like, I'm going to just assume she's conservative. Like, interesting and bold choice, unless she just signaled that she was supportive of Trump and he felt like he had to defend him.

But, you know, I think what's sort of sad about this is like, this guy probably wants to talk about this all the time. He probably does want to talk about what's going on and instead i guess at fear of losing his job which sir you have to go back to this office now with all of these people and pretend you didn't say the things that you said like nobody nobody thinks so right you should have just been a person of integrity to me like those are my personal opinions that i i said off hours but you know exactly if you wanted to impress a conservative woman, you say something like that and then you stick by it and you say, yeah, like come at me. But that's the truth. Interesting super chat from shaved BM.

Normally we say the super chats, but he said wrong. Rashawn is scared for his life. He's a lot of mockery of the justice in the courtroom. And if he doesn't jail DJT, the left will destroy him and his family. I actually think the reason why they may have postponed the sentencing is because they think he may win and if they jail him and he wins trump will return with some anger some fever yeah so try and appear more amenable and then should trump win they can say look you know we we agree with your rulings and we postponed it. We were just, I'm the judge. Don't look at me. But I wonder if a

component of this postponement is that with all this stuff going on, especially with this leak and the, and the prediction models, they're like, if Trump wins, we're in trouble. So get on his good side, or at least try to be on his good side. This came out, uh, this came out after the, it was the leak, right? The leak came out first. And Michelle said, hey, we're going to go ahead and move it. This came out and then, yep. This was the other day. So I could see this coming out and you'd be like, okay, my bad. Let's just postpone it until after the election.

This for sure has something to do with it. Yeah, if this was before. I still think that they want to be able to get some kind of purport. I think there is a chance that they know Trump is going to win. And like as a last ditch spiteful effort, they want to be able to run the headline. President-elect reports to jail. Yes, but you only flick the balls of a lion

if the lion is in a cage that he can't get out of. Don't you think there's just an arrogance, though? Like they just think that they can pull it off. Right. That's what I'm saying. They they have to genuinely believe that the lion is caged and can't get out. Yeah.

And they're going to walk over and go and just see what happens. I think that I think that they are that that arrogant. But I also think there's there's a potential component where they're like, hey, this this thing can jump the fence. You know, it might climb the fence if it gets angry enough. So just you never know. Maybe. Right.

Right. If they if they throw everything. Look, if Trump was expected to lose, they'd lock him up. The fear is that putting him in jail helps him and he might win and then he's going to get revenge. Yeah. And like I said, I think afterwards they want to be able to puncture any kind of like Trump wins media headlines with President Alak goes to prison. I think that there is there is like this last optic that they are trying to hold on to. Maybe they won't sentence him if he gets elected, but I think there is, you know, people like Alvin Bragg

and to a certain extent, Marshawn, have really staked their careers on this. And they did it with the ambition of climbing higher within the DNC and the progressive arm of American politics. You know, they want to have the last say in this until it becomes impossible to speak anymore. And I feel like with the, with the going back to the Crowder thing, like they know, I feel like they all know that what Bajon is doing is bad. Like it's not like, um, it's not hidden news. So he has, when he has a chance to talk to a pretty lady who's probably good at goading him out with some information, he'll gladly say it out loud to her in person instead of holding it tight. Cause it's already like, it's like they're at the top of everyone knowing it's true.

So she just says, gives him a little bit of push and he brings it out. Wouldn't it be funny if like 14 other people come forward and they're like, oh yeah, I golf with him. He talks about this all the time. Like, you know, there's like a barista at his local coffee shop and he's like, he's constantly bringing this up. I'm just trying to hand him a latte. There's a guy who's like, I was trying to take a selfie with him.

And then he's filming and the guy's just talking about it. And he's like, I was trying to take a selfie with him. And then he's filming. And the guy's just talking about it. And he's like, can you just hold still for a minute? No, no. It's a travesty of justice. I cannot accept this. His kids release these voicemails that are like, hey, honey, I hope school's going well. I just really think what's going on is great.

He does tell other people. That conversation he had with a stranger. Oh, yeah. Yeah, yeah. That's him being light. This isn't new to him. Yeah. Talking out loud about this.

You can just tell, you can tell he's being real. You can tell that that clip is like his real normal self. And then just to come out, I just don't understand why you don't, if you're going to do that, if you know it's out there, just stand by what you're saying. Because now you made enemies of all kinds of people. I know. It's not like the brag and his department are going, oh, thank heavens he apologized.

He never really meant that. They're going, crap, we know what he thinks. Then when he comes out and says, no, I don't think that, he just sullies himself with the right. Or not even the right, but the people who expect honesty. Right, you're still the comms person for this department. So now no one knows what to think of you.

You're just the bad guy for everyone. What if the conflict that we're seeing is, for the longest time before the internet, we only had the mainstream narrative. And that narrative was probably the same BS that it is today. You know, we fact check and go, hey, wait a minute, they're lying.

I don't necessarily believe that's true, to be honest. Because we primarily use corporate news sources. We just fact check them. Like Tim Waltz's family endorsed Trump. Well, there's a picture of his family doing it. So we assume that to be the case. And then, you know, when we find conflicts, my favorite example is Politico has a story claiming that Ukraine interfered in the 2016 election to assist Hillary Clinton. And Politico also has another story claiming that the allegation Ukraine interfered

in the 2016 election to help Clinton is Russian disinformation. How is Politico running both stories? So I don't necessarily believe that it's always been as bad, but it still may be a product of the Internet. So I'm wondering if a large component of what we're seeing is actually just it's the natural process by which the narrative machine falls apart. The opinions of officials back in the day used to be just like this guy is now. And then publicly, he'd never say anything. And he didn't have Twitter. And there weren't really a lot of undercover cameras.

So you'd never hear it. But now because of the internet, some random dude with a camera or Steven Crowder's crew can get him on candid camera. And now more and more of the truth is breaking out of the narrative machine yeah i think that there's an aspect to that oh i was gonna say that's what journalism is supposed to be it's like in some ways it's a double-edged sword with social media and all this information because a lot of these people will find you know they are they actually become the watchdogs for the government which is what journalism is supposed to be and what it hasn't been in so long. So I love seeing stuff like this. I think that the difference between the private opinion and the

like, I'm going to stand by what my employer is saying was easier before the internet. I mean, you see this all the time now where people will get in trouble for something you post online. Maybe that's not fair because it doesn't represent their company's values that someone reports on them. In this case, I actually feel like, and I'm just a broken record over here, but, you know, I feel like having at least one person in that office who is like, yeah, it seems like this is not good. I don't agree with the choices that were made. As an independent American, that makes me feel better, right? I don't, I always had questions about this. And I think even not super political people look at the number of cases that different

branches of law enforcement brought against Trump over the last couple of years. And they say, like, obviously, there's some kind of coordinated effort to get him. You don't want to be the, you don't want to be looking at these institutions and saying no one in there would ever take my concerns seriously you want there to be someone who is like this doesn't seem right i think we may be messed up here yeah and for so long the main news outlet sources would never have covered that so you wouldn't have known yeah which is interesting what do you think happens with trump do you have a prediction for uh for i guess now november instead of two weeks from now?

I'm always afraid to say it, but I think he, like, mops the floor with her. I think he's going to win. I think he's going to win. Yeah. Well, that's Nate Silver's prediction. Well, let's do this. Before we, let's jump right into Nate Silver's prediction, actually. So we got this. Interactive poll says latest Nate Silver 538 forecast chance of winning. August 23, Harris 53.5 to Trump 46.1. But as of September 6, Trump is at 61.5

to Harris' 38.3. We actually have it here. Silver bulletin. And it looks like they predict Trump is going to as of right now. And this could change. Nevada and Arizona go Trump. North Carolina and Georgia go Trump. P.A., Michigan, Wisconsin all go Trump. I mean, that is heavy. They're saying that Trump's chance of winning P.A. is 61 percent to Harris's 38 percent. And a while ago, Nate Silver said

if Kamala Harris does not win P.A., her chance of winning the election will be 4 percent. So it looks particularly heavy in favor of Donald Trump right now. And we're two months out. This is where these models are starting to matter the most. He's got the polls, too, to back it up. Here's the important thing about the national level polls. Harris at 49 to Trump's 46. Two big important points. Many of these polls typically favor Democrats, so it could be within the margin of error. More importantly, national popular vote does not matter for who wins the president. So, of course, if the polls show a 3% skew towards Harris, but that's mostly Los Angeles,

New York, and, you know and Illinois or Chicago or whatever, then it doesn't matter. Trump wins the swing states. Trump wins the election. I was in Northeastern PA this last past weekend, and everywhere is Trump signs. Even very outskirts of Scranton, which is definitely Harris, 100% Democrat. Well, because Joe is from Scranton, hypothetically. You got a highway named after him. Anyways, even on outskirts

like the small cities, I've been seeing more Trumps because I was doing a lot of driving around my family here and there, but you usually see Obama or a Biden on these little small towns,

small offshoots of the city, but I'm seeing Trump, so that's huge. I think that's a good sign for a PA to win Trump. 61%, he said. That's where it seeing Trump. So that's huge. I think that's a good sign for PA to win Trump. 61% he said. That's where it's all at. It's insane. It's all in Pennsylvania. You know what's weird is I went to

Southern California last week. Trump signs everywhere. All over. In California. Yeah. So I mean, not you know. What about in Arizona? Because Arizona is a swing state. Arizona is a swing state. And that's where you're from. That's where I'm from. And that's, you know, it was, I think it was, it's been red since like the 40s. And then in 96, it went for Clinton. And then in 2020, barely for

Biden. And so hopefully it'll go back red. But it's kind of been a mix. I mean, I see more Trump signs everywhere, but I also did in 2020. I've seen never zero Biden. I mean, I've seen him 2020. I don't see any Harris's. I don't see any Biden's today, like nowhere and anywhere I go. I see him in some places. I almost feel like it's like the one house in the neighborhood that's trying to point out to everyone else that they're Democrats. Like it's only if there's other Trump flags. Yeah. Well, it's also never just I never see just a Biden sign. I feel like I always see a Biden sign or Biden era sign or whatever it is now. Plus a pride flag.

Plus like some other like symbols of like, we're not like the rest of you. But and maybe that's because I'm in West Virginia. I think that it's nice to see polls like this. It makes me so nervous that conservative voters will get complacent. Like I just, you know, when the polls leaned, when you saw this rise in Kamala Harris, you know, gaining some ground after the initial bump after she was announced, and she picks walls and convention stuff like that. I think it was a good reminder to people who will vote Republican, independents that are leaning conservatives that like they have to do something. It's not enough to look at like a surging Trump poll and be like,

cool, somebody's got this. You know, a likely voter is not the same thing as someone who has definitely cast a ballot for Trump. And, you know, early voting starts in Pennsylvania, you know, in about 10 days. But that's my biggest fear, I guess, that people will be like, oh, well, he looks like he's in the lead. So I'll just stay home today or I won't do anything about it. I know. And that's why that's why I worry when I say I think he'll mop the floor there only if we actually get out and go vote. And that's a big thing. And also with with independents and, you know, there's millions more registered Democrats than Republicans. So if we, if we want to have it in the bag, we have to,

you know, get those people to, and not just become like you said, not get, not arrogant, not get complacent. Cause yeah. You feel like anyone's complacent right now.

Do you guys see that around? I don't, I've not seen any complacency complacency going on. Not, not among politically active individuals. Although I don't know. I'm, you know,

looking at Nate Silver's model, I wonder how it is that, you know, looking at Nate Silver's model, I wonder how it is that, you know, this Alan Lichtman guy is going the other way. And this guy's only been wrong one time, and it was Gore v. Bush, which is a weird election. This could be a weird election. Don't get me wrong. I mean, Joe Biden flip like winning the primary, but then dropping out is very anomalous. So I don't know if anyone can predict what's going to happen. I don't even know if Nate Silver's predictions make sense because Nate Silver is accounting for public sentiment. Is he accounting for bureaucracy and administrative and procedural place?

The polls that I like the most right now that I personally feel the most comfort in reading are state level polls where the presidential election is not the only issue. Like I was talking about this the other day, but Montana, AARP released one about Montana that was largely about the Senate race. It talked about, you know, the influence of down of upticket voting, you know, whether they're going to vote for Trump or Harris. But if I feel like people will say one thing about the top of the ticket, they're like, oh, yeah, I'll probably vote for this guy, whatever else. But people who are actively thinking about their congressional seats,

their Senate seats, the people who are willing to give you an opinion on that, I feel like they are the most likely to turn out to vote because it's easy to you said football season's about to start. It's easy to wear the jersey. It's a different thing to buy the ticket to the game. It's a good analogy. Thanks. I'm so good at

sports. Let me tell you. Yeah. Pennsylvania, go Trump. I've been hearing that there are, you know, in Virginia, lots of Harris signs. What? Yeah. I do a lot of driving around. Maybe Eastside? Maybe

North Loudoun area. That's just what I've been hearing. I don't know. I've not actually seen any, you know, to be honest. I was through Mart what I've been hearing. I don't know. I've not actually seen any, you know, to be honest. I was through Martinsburg this week earlier. I didn't see anything like at least in the main strips. You know, I've seen a couple

Harris signs here and there, but nothing significant. Yeah. You drive around and everything's a Trump flag or something like that. So I grew up in Connecticut, which is always blue,

but it would make me laugh during 2016 because I would go back. It's in college at the time. And there were houses that had Trump signs, which I was kind of surprised about because it's, you know, a pretty blue area. And there were very few houses that had Biden signs.

He won the state. It's not, it was Clinton at the time. It was, it's not that the Democrat didn't win the state. It's just that like the Trump supporters were more willing to talk about their stance, which is interesting culturally. And people who are voting Democrat, I guess, just didn't feel the need to like they weren't that into Hillary Clinton, I think. I really think for the last four campaigns that the Democrats have fielded, which is Clinton, Biden, Biden part two, and now the Harris-Walls takeover, they're all actually about Trump, right? It's sort of about their candidate in the sense that they have a name

on the ticket, but actually they are asking voters to vote against Trump. And I just don't think that narrative holds up right now, especially given the state of the economy, the state of national trust, the way we look like we're standing on the international stage. I think voters, I think it would have been better for the Democrats if they had an actual inspirational candidate. And they didn't have that twice this year. And that's what they already did in 2020 of like, that guy is orange and bad. And he's, you know, in 2016.

I mean, that's again, the fourth time they've run this. I think people are getting sick of it, honestly. And he's not that bad anymore. They already had him for four years. So he's not the devil. Exactly. They can't, you know, did you did you guys ever have someone i have a couple friends who are you know always going to vote democrat they they're they believe that you know they're progressive to the core but they're you know after trump was president there was uh a year a lot of people got money back on their tax turns because of some of the the uh

economic policies implemented and i would have these friends turn to me and be like, yeah, I hate this guy, but I do have a lot of money right now. So that's kind of cool. Like they would say something positive, but they have to caveat by saying like, but I still don't like him. Yeah, they'd say like, I wish he just had a better attitude, you know. But things are going great monetarily. Yeah. I have people still talking about him in that recorded conversation about grabbing something by something.

That still gets in their brains to this day. They bring it up all the time. See, what I think about is Theovon's recent interview with Trump where Trump is like, yes, the economy was good under me. And Theovon goes, yeah, my cousin bought a boat. I think that is how a lot of Americans remember that time. Oh yeah, my family went on vacation. That was pretty cool.

My cousin bought a boat. Yeah, it was great. I think that needs to be a strategy, too, especially, like, in the debate is to be like, hey, I know you guys. You don't have to love me. You don't have to like that I'm orange. You don't have to like the things I say. But I'm not her. And if you don't vote for me, you get her. Why has no spray tan company, like, tried to release a shade that's, like, Trumpian orange?

I just don't understand. It doesn't look good. I mean, he has rocked. I just don't understand. It doesn't look good. I mean, he has rocked it. I don't understand. He seems to be doing well. He owns it. Yeah, the I'm not her because their motto is I'm with her. And he'd be like, yo, I'm not her.

Wouldn't it be really funny if that's not a spray tan, it's just Trump. He's just orange, you know. I hope he is. That's just natural. That'd be great. A lot of carrots turn orange. He has good eyesight then too. That's right. He's an old, you know? I hope he is. That's just natural. That'd be great. A lot of carrots turn orange. He has good eyesight then, too.

That's right. He's an old man, no glasses. Yeah, actually, that's an interesting question. He doesn't wear glasses, he's old. Yeah. I don't know. I guess, doesn't everybody after like 40 or 50 start wearing glasses? Maybe LASIK?

Everyone I know, all my oldies, yeah, they wear glasses. The thing about carrots giving you good eyesight is a myth. Sure. Shh, shh, shh. People are listening to their children, Tim. My kids are listening. Yeah, it was World War II. I think it was the Allies developed sonar and radar,

or I think it was sonar, not sonar, radar, and was able to pinpoint locations at night. And in order to try and, like, the Germans were trying to figure out how do they know where we are at night, the West was just like, they spread a lie that they were eating a lot of carrots that was improving their eyesight. So they had good contrast or whatever. I mean, it's so crazy. War was – it's crazy how different war was 100 years ago.

Like seriously. Wasn't there like an operation where the British had a bunch of inflatable tanks and stuff? Yeah, so that the Germans would see it from above and it would look like massive forces, but it was just balloons. That's crazy. Yeah, they inflated a bunch of balloons that looked like tanks and stuff. What a more creative time. Yes. I mean, I wouldn't be surprised if we still have stuff like that. You ever see those warships that have like zebra print zigzags?

It's so that you can't tell the distance. Is it when they're in the water? Or their orientation. Yeah, crazy. That's interesting. Modern technology, or technology in general, is huge for war. Indeed. It is. Yep. So do you guys have

predictions on which states Trump will win in terms of swing states? Every single one. Every single one? He's not going to get anything. Let's pull this one up from the Postmillennial. Michigan court rules RFK Jr.'s name should be removed from ballot. This reverses a lower court ruling. So I think this will play a big role for Trump in the prediction models.

The Michigan appeals court has ruled the name of RFK Jr. should be removed from presidential ballots in that state. This comes after Kennedy suspended his presidential campaign and endorsed Donald Trump. He has since petitioned to have his name removed from ballots in 10 key battleground states, including Michigan. A lower court in Michigan had said that Kennedy's name should not be removed, but that the appeals court determined that Democrat Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson had no basis to deny Kennedy's request to withdraw his

name from the ballot, the Detroit Free Press reports. The appeals court further determined that the law Benson used to justify her refusal to remove Kennedy's name from the ballot only to candidates of state for state office, not to presidential candidates such as Kennedy. It was only two days ago that a Michigan judge determined that Kennedy, the Kennedy, must remain on the November ballot, which would have potentially aided Vice President Kamala Harris's bid for the White House, which is the very candidate Kennedy is hoping to see defeated. I don't know if I agree with that logic, to be completely honest, because that that that that argues Kennedy was always pulling from Trump. Him staying on the ballot may pull from the Democrats. I don't know why everyone's immediately assuming this is just bad for Trump. Him staying on the ballot may pull from the Democrats. I don't know why everyone's immediately assuming this is just bad for Trump. Is it because even though he's a Democrat, he was kind of based a Democrat. So they think anyone who's has some illogical brain cells might

be voting for him from on the right side instead of the left side. Well, when he first announced that he was switching to an independent, a lot of people were like, well, first off, let's remember that it was Democrat organizations that were trying to keep him off the ballot initially. It was I don't know of any Republican state led effort that was like, we've got to keep RFK off the ballot. That should tell us something. Right. It was also his family that said he should drop out. This was when he was an independent because it would hurt the Democrats. So obviously someone thought it was bad for him to be there. But when he initially announced his candidacy and again, when he announced that he was going

to be an independent, there was a lot of enthusiasm among people who identified as conservative. But when you would look at polls that would ask them like, oh, so you like him? They'd be like, yeah, we think he's great. And they're like, are you gonna vote for him? They'd be like, no, I'm voting for Trump. But you know, I think he does appeal to a lot of voters. Now, independents are a little more mixed. But again, like, I don't think that an independent that was leaning towards Trump, I don't think there's enough of them that were going to not vote for Trump. Whereas Democrats were deeply unhappy with Biden as a candidate and were looking for other options. Very based. Jocelyn was, I seen her on MSN today. She was MSNBC and she was super mad because I guess got to reprint everything. It's going to cost a lot of money to get everything reprinted. And that was her excuse to the host is they're going to spend millions of dollars, taxpayer dollars to redo the ballots.

And even though she had all the time ahead of time to make that change, she waited to the last minute. And now she is forced to when she's costing her own people or you know their own money well to to go back to where we started i think we can assume then if trump really was losing voters to rfk jr this boosts trump in michigan yeah i think it does and i think it's because the democrats have become so extreme that anything, even in the middle, even anything is more Republican. It's more conservative now. It's just this past, you know, couple years have become such a divide. And so I think a lot, I don't think there's very many, you know,

Democrats that they're losing here. Yeah, I think you're right. I think that it's interesting to watch the lawfare have gone from we must keep him off the ballot to being like, no, now you can't get off the ballot. And in some ways, I think it's just another testament to how poorly the Democratic Party treats RFK Jr., who really could have been the sort of firebrand to breathe new life into the Democratic Party if they were open to it, but they obviously weren't. There's a regimented direction they are trying to move in, and he doesn't get to be a part of it. You know, Michigan is a state that I don't count on for Trump,

but it would be interesting if not having RFK does tip it in his favors. I just don't know if that's the case. Do you think we have a better chance with Michigan or Wisconsin for Trump? It's hard to know. I haven't looked enough data. Do you have an instinct? I would go with more Wisconsin because I feel like it's a bigger rural area than Michigan would be. Michigan has bigger cities and

different demographics. Anything, Manim? Let's see. Is he on the ballot in Michigan? Trump? RFK? Well, he's going to come on the ballot in Michigan? Trump? RFK? Well, he's going to come off the ballot in Michigan. Or in Wisconsin, I mean.

Trump is. Yeah, Trump's on all of them. And I think RFK is. He tried to get off, but I think Michigan wouldn't let him. Or Wisconsin wouldn't let him. Sorry. Interesting. Yeah, I don't know.

Honestly, both of those, both of those I feel like are a toss up. That's why, again, you can't get complacent. I feel like. Especially in the swing states. Yeah. If I'm remembering correctly, Michigan is one of the states that during the primary said basically we there was a significant enough portion of votes that were saying we want not Joe Biden. That was the noncommitted. Yeah, the noncommitted voters, which is fascinating, right? Because if then that was largely at the time reported because of the Palestine Israel conflict. So if those voters who from all the interviews I've heard done with with people who are this is their their single issue this year, it's not enough to have swapped out for Harris. They need the promises of a complete ceasefire. And I don't think anyone has won them over on the Democratic Party. So if you're a

noncommitted voter in Michigan, it's not that you're going to switch and vote for RFK. It's that you set out the election entirely. So get RFK's name coming off the ballot wouldn't win Trump those voters. It would just continue to free up voters who are going to pick someone else. It doesn't motivate the people that the Democrats actually need. And Kamala has never said anything about doing ceasefires. I still see people mad about her not going far enough to shut it down right now. She kind of just pays lip service to it. That's my take on it.

She does to everything. She just she doesn't answer the question. So it's like, what what are they supposed to think? Still no policies on the website? Not as far as I know. That's crazy. And once again, I'll throw it to the Lichtman prediction, where it says that the incumbent party affects major national policy change without having any policies. I don't know how he's saying that's true. It's business as usual, unless she tells us she's doing something else. I mean, there was that stuff on the capital gains tax today where it's like it's less than what Biden is suggesting, but it is still an increase.

Like it's like she is trying to suggest, oh, I'm not like Biden. But actually, she is basically still the Biden-Harris administration, except for when she's copying Trump. So she wants to say she wants to distance herself from Biden. But then people say, okay, how are you going to do that? And it's... They did make an update to the website. They did?

But it's just a countdown for four days, a countdown to the debate. That's all it is. The only thing new on it, I guess. When is the countdown to their policies coming? What is this? When I see the countdown, I was like, oh, cool, is that what they mean

they're going to do policies? But nope, it's just a debate. Oh, yeah, there it is. Chip in before the debate. Four days, 12 minutes 52 seconds and uh harris debates trump on september 10th show your support for team harris waltz by donating any amount and uh no no policies this is crazy times man I was talking about it this morning. It just feels like over the past seven to ten years, the collective IQ of this country has dropped by like ten points. Or I don't know how else to describe it. But people that I knew who were otherwise smart,

even if they weren't super, they didn't care, have seemingly lost the capability to comprehend simple things. Like you show them a video of Trump saying something and they just, they forget it in five seconds. I don't want to get into, I don't want to call anybody specifically out, but there are people that I know where they'll be like, did you hear Trump did this thing? And I'll say, here's a video. And they'll go, oh, I didn't realize that. And then 20 minutes later, they're like, did you hear Trump did this thing? And I'll say, here's a video. And they'll go, oh, I didn't realize that. And then 20 minutes later, they're like, did you hear Trump did this thing? Or they'll like throw in a conversation like, yeah, well, Trump said this.

And I'm like, I just showed you the video. Like, what is going on? How are we in this world where Kamala has no, Barack Obama had policies. Like, it was convincing to people. It convinced me. People were saying that he was going to do a proper withdrawal. The general argument was we're not going to get an overnight withdrawal. You can't do it. But he's going to wind this thing down, get our troops back. Anti-war candidate. Everyone's mad about the war. And I'm like, oh, OK. And I could look and see what his policies

were all about and see what he was talking about. Kamala Harris, Tim Walz don't have anything. I don't I don't know what they what know what they represent or what they will do. And I think that's how they want it, right? She doesn't want to have to answer any questions at any time. She doesn't want to be glued down to any promises because she doesn't have a vision for the country. She's not a strong leader. She's not a strong personality.

I think this also might speak to some sort of discord within her campaign, because one of the fascinating things about being like, hey, we're, you know, however many days out, we're going to throw Kamala in now is that she inherited the Biden campaign, meaning a lot of his volunteers and staffers, but then also brought in her own support staff. might for all we know be in a room every night fighting about the policies because she was staffed with even more progressive people than the biden than biden was and so they don't know what to present to the people because there is no plan there's just chaos and fighting yeah and her staff didn't she have like a 90 percent um she has lots of turnover yeah so like her staff now might not be who she wants them to meet they might just be people who got hired so they can't decide on what's going on. And some reporting that I've heard is that she doesn't really have any like policy advisors that have been with her for a long time.

You know, she's got her sister and she's got her husband and she's got her brother-in-law, but she doesn't have, you know, experts who she's been working with since her days in California. She sort of is adrift politically. It's just insane because you go to like the local people running for office, like these small offices, you know, just locally and they have websites and they have policies and they have what they want to do. You want to be the leader of the free world. You have no policies on your website. Yeah. How do people not get

frustrated that and see and get frustrated? I would be frustrated if Trump had nothing. Yeah. You expect more. I mean, what's interesting is there was this New York Times reporter talking about how he had done on the ground interviews with Harris Wall's volunteers in Nevada. And they were being told Nevada, Nevada, don't come for me. They were being told, don't focus on policy, just focus on vibe. Do you think they could win this election on Vibe alone? Brett Summer. Summer is over, my friend.

I would hope not, but honestly, I feel like they won on Vibe in 2020, you know? But the Vibe was not Trump. Is that the Vibe again this year? It's always not Trump, I think. Not Trump and a woman. Oh, yeah. So it's like an edgy, cool, boss babe Vibe.

Oh, man. And dumb's like an edgy, cool, boss babe vibe. Oh, man. I know. And dumb people are easy to control. Dumb populations are definitely easier to control. Sure, but you have to motivate dumb people, right? Like if the vibes are not enough. I don't know if not Trump is enough anymore. Yeah.

Because status quo is not great, right? Nobody's buying boats per Theo Vaughn's cousin. He said no one's buying boats anymore? No. I'm parroting. Just five years ago they were buying boats per theobond's cousin he said no one's buying boats anymore no he that was he's i'm parroting just five years ago they were buying boats yeah and he used it once the whole time probably yep like boats are the the joke is the two greatest days in a boat owner's life the day you buy it and the day you sell it i don't hear good things about boat ownership no i have no a couple boat owners and you know it's just pain in the butt unless you live on money out their pocket i feel like owning a boat is sort of like an achievement thing.

Like you've come to the point in your life where you're able to buy this boat. But then also if you have come to a point in your life where you're able to buy the boat, you're probably working really hard, don't have much free time. Yeah, you have to like scrub the bottom and do a lot of work. Yeah, all kind of work. It's pain in the butt. No thanks. Can't they invent something so that you don't have to do that?

Oh, like in the pools, they have like a mechanical thing that goes around and cleans it, just like a rumba. Or just like a material that is. Oh, that's okay. The best way to do it is to just know someone with a boat. Yeah, that's the way you do it. Yeah. It is.

That's why a lot of people who own boats charter them out. So it's like you own a boat, you're going to use it a couple times a year. You have a charter company manage it, and then people rent it, and the pilot takes it out or a captain takes it out. Yeah, well, enough boat talk, I guess. Let's jump to the next story. So we have this from the Post Millennial.

LL Flooring shutters all 442 stores after filing for bankruptcy. We've got this one, Macy's, closing even more stores than originally planned from NJ.com. Macy's will be shuttering 150 stores over the next few years, adding that it would close 55 stores in 2024 instead of the 50 stores that were projected. Red Lobster to emerge from bankruptcy after closing dozens of locations. This just keeps happening.

And so I bring this stuff up because we are watching. I mean, the LL whole floor thing is crazy. 442 stores all filing for bankruptcy. Does this not? I mean, people are not building houses. People need floors, don't they? Well, and it's not even that. It's one of Home Depot's biggest rivals. So they're shutting this down. Yet when we looked at the prediction model from Lichtman claiming that Kamala Harris is going to win, short-term economy, it says that the economy is not in a recession. True. Long-term economy, real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. True. I know those are specific things to say that are true, but I kind of feel like the rate at which businesses are shutting, it's going to have a massive impact on people and people don't feel like the economy is good. So it's a question of does his model account for the alignment between whether the economy is officially good, meaning what he's basing this off of is people making statements. They are saying, here's our numbers.

We think it's good. Does that correlate with how people actually feel because many you you see these men in the street interviews even don lemon and people are like the economy is bad we're struggling i think um with with her not being the incumbent i think his whole model is out the door because she's just it is different than what usually she got thrown in there she's not the actual president incumbent yeah but you could you could be a termed out president with your vp running so the where i would consider this is the president the weird shenanigans around biden dropping out not because he was termed out but because his brain don't work right yeah that

says something weird like there's no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. And the argument there is that they didn't have any votes at the convention. And that's what it means. And I'm like, but does that matter? We're asking how voters feel. And based on whether or not there was a serious vote at the convention, you're arguing that's how voters would feel. But maybe maybe his point is this. If it still doesn't apply perfectly, maybe he's saying, no, no, if there really was contention, then the politicians and the and the and the and the delegates at the conventions would be split because they'd be worried about what that meant for them back home. But these aren't congressmen and women.

These are delegates who were sent in, you know, to vote. I don't know how he comes up with this stuff. But back to the economic point, we're looking about 2,000 employees will be without jobs just from LL flooring alone. It already shuttered 100 locations to cut costs after being unable to obtain investors or find a buyer. I don't I don't know how we see all these stories and anyone can conclude the economy is good. No, if you walk up to a random person and go, how do you think the economy is doing? Like, how are you doing financially? They're going to say it's horrible.

It's bad. If you go, well, these stats show that it's you know, it's not as bad or something. They're not going to care. Like you said, it's if they're voting on vibe, they're going to feel like the economy is awful and they're going to. That's why I don't understand how we can have a vibe election. Like the vibe is it's really expensive to be alive right now. And people feel really uncertain. I referenced this a while ago, but NBC polled young people and the majority said like the top issue for them was the economy. So how how do you offer them vibes

in lieu of a secure financial future? This just doesn't make sense to me. You can't have reports of like, you know all of these people who are affected by this know someone who was voting this year. They are probably voting themselves. Do you think they're like, wow, the vibes are great out here.

I just lost my job. I don't know what I'm going to do. Really great economy. You might as well put Harris back in. That doesn't make any sense to me. The don't know what I'm going to do. Really great economy. Might as well put Harris back in. That doesn't make any sense to me. The vibes are, it's not going to work. That's what I'm saying. I'm going 49 state landslide because everyone is. For Trump?

Yeah, let's go. I don't know. I mean, okay, I'm exaggerating. Let's go I'm just saying I don't know if Trump wins. I'd like him to win. Sure. I just don't know. This is the weirdest election of my life. Nothing lines up. I just don't know. This is the weirdest election of my life. Nothing lines up. It is abject chaos.

Everything is weird. It's even weirder than 2020 when he was in a lid and we had to do mail-in. We didn't see him. This is just a whole different level. Yep. And we are 60 days out. Jeez. It's going to be here before we know it. 60 days out and no policy on the website.

I can't imagine what the October surprise is going to be. I have to imagine it's going to be here before we know it. 60 days out and no policy on the website. I can't imagine what the October surprise is going to be. I have to imagine it's going to be something absolutely crazy. Look, we're two months out and the prediction, Nate Silver's prediction model has Trump up. I think some of the betting markets do and some other models are favoring Trump. There's no guarantee. Something could happen. I mean, two months ago, someone tried to kill him.

Yeah. And we have the debate on Tuesday. I think the debate, like I can't think October surprise or anything else. I can really only think about the debate because I think you get a whole new press cycle when people are deciding if Kamala is a defensible candidate. I also think that similarly to, to the debate with Biden, Trump can push so hard on the

issues he can really hold her feet to the fire and be like you haven't given anyone any specifics what's going on like he's already been president he has he already has a record with the economy he has an actual plan he talks about it openly she can't really girl boss her way out of the explanation for what she's going to do. I'm afraid that it's going to turn into sort of personal posturing and standoff and we'll get our, you know, excuse me, I am speaking moment or whatever she's going to try and pull out of her sleeve. And that will derail the entire effectiveness of the debate. You know, he I don't think the American people need to see the clash of personalities as they need to see the push for accountability. When you don't even put policies on your Web site, you're saying to the American people, I'm not going to tell you what I'm going to do. You just have to blindly trust me. No one voted for her.

I mean, Dean Phillips came in second in the in the Democratic primary this year and they didn't even give him a shot. That's interesting, too. Yeah. Yeah. I think right off the bat right when they start he needs to be like oh you're here we're i'm glad you're here nobody has been able to get a hold of you and been able to talk to you so just right off the bat he needs to push how she isn't a strong leader because you're the vice president right now and you're not answering our questions like he needs to be strong on that you should bring her a bag of doritos like i found i got these from Sheetz.

No, because the thing is, if he does any of that, the media is primed to attack Trump. And so they're going to be like, he talked down to her and she looks so strong standing up to him. Like he doesn't need to push any personal attacks. He doesn't need to be on the office and on anything other than policy. He just needs to say over and over again,

why can't you answer questions about the border? What are you going to do? How come your economic plan is just to copy mine? What are your original ideas on this? Can you explain to me how you differ from Biden, who has done a bad job? She's not going to be able to do it. You're going to get a lot of like, well, and then a lot of shoulder shifting. That's her signature move when she's about to make a point, shifts her whole body. Yeah, in my opinion, it doesn't need to be anything cutesy he just needs to get real answers she can't give them yeah it doesn't need to be showy but he needs to show that she doesn't want to talk and she hasn't well she wanted his mic to be on real bad yeah it's funny because there's only one reason the i'm speaking i'm speaking i'm speaking she's

not gonna get it she's gonna try to squeeze it in there you know she might still do it in there it always reminds me of a school teacher when I was here. I'm talking. I mean, it'll be funny if she does it anyway and Trump's just standing there like stone-faced, like, wait, what happened? I'm sorry, you were speaking.

So she's going to go to Pennsylvania and she might already be there right now doing several days of debate prep for this because it's in Philadelphia. And I just wonder, if you're Kamala's handlers, what advice are you giving her right now? Are you giving her rational advice? Because I think a lot of people around her like go full girl boss, like this is a moment for feminism, you know, wear your pantsuit and and put your hand in the air and say, excuse me, I am speaking.

But then someone else is going to know that that actually pulls terribly with a lot of Americans. Like it doesn't look strong. It wasn't a good look for Hillary. No, I think they is going to know that that actually pulls terribly with a lot of Americans. Like it doesn't look strong. It wasn't a good look for Hillary. No. I think they're going to have her. I think the reason she needs so many days to debate prep is because she's not good just off the cuff. She needs to memorize things. So I think she's, you know, memorizing hard because I think the more people see of her unscripted, the less they like her.

And so she needs to be ready to, you know, just have something ready to go memorized. Yeah. Which is, again, interesting. Like if Trump can spar a little bit and be like, well, tell me right now, you know, if the question is about the economy and he can ask for a specific detail, I don't think she's prepared to speak candidly. I think you're right. Give me specifics.

That's what he should say to give me specifics about this about that. You know, he's going to ask her. Why haven't you done it already? Which is a great question. It's a wonderful question. She's got to have an answer, right? What are you going to say? She has no power. She insisted that her name be front and center for the last three and a half years

and then she's going to back off to well. I was oppressed by the white man who put me on the ticket like that. I was burdened by what was I'm unburdened by that guy now. Yeah. I mean, that that may be her argument that Joe has his own policy plans and mine are different. And what are they? That's great if they're different. But tell us what they are. We'd love to know. And then she's going to say, I'm going to give tax cuts to the middle class and I want to work on grants and working on developing homeownership plans. She's going to say, well, I have a vision for an opportunity economy. Because, you know, when my mom was raising me and then divert completely into an irrelevant personal story that she memorized and she thinks makes herself look likable.

She yelled freedom so that's huge she loves America she'll be using the finger pointing and the shoulder shifting and a pantsuit now I'm going to think about that I think she should wear a dress I think that would be the boldest thing that she could do so far she's pantsuits only

is she? as far as I can see I never see photos of her in anything about a pantsuit because she's a lady lawyer why can't it just be a suit why is her in anything about a pantsuit Because she's a lady lawyer Why can't it just be a suit? Why can't it just be a pantsuit? Like men wear suits, why is it now? I know I'm off topic Because women can have like a blazer and a skirt that go together

Is that a suit? It's like a suit I think they call them skirt suits and pantsuits But I don't really know I think they feel more powerful in a suit than a dress And a man Dresses are degrading So

Yeah Well, there may be an october surprise here's the story from kctv five first human case of blur of bird flu bird flu uh bird flu confirmed in missouri so there you go ladies and gentlemen as of today jefferson city missouri the first human case of bird flu has been detected in miss. On Friday, the CDC confirmed a human case of avian influenza, a H5, H5 bird flu was found by the Missouri Department of Health and Senior Services. The DHS has said the risk of sustained transmission of infection among the general public remains low. The organization said a patient was hospitalized on August 22nd. An additional testing showed a tested specimen for the individual was confirmed as bird flu.

So what is bird flu? It's like 40 or 50. What's the mortality? It's like, is it 60%? I was looking it up, and I couldn't find any real stats on it. I know that bird flu mortality is massive. It's like 50%. It's up there.

Yeah, they say the disease is primarily found in wild birds and poultry, and has recently been seen in dairy cows and other animals. The first case in Missouri is the 15th case of bird flu report in the U.S. in 2022 and the 14th in the country this year. 60 among humans. 60%. That's what I thought. So here's a question for you. Bird flu really, let's say bird flu starts breaking out like a human strain.

It's in a human. So the possibility it's already a human so the possibility it's already jumped to other humans is it exists you know it's like they catch the one person and they're immediately like who are you with friends and family and then we're gonna monitor them for symptoms let's say we actually end up with several hundred thousand people having this which means the the the virality factor is going to be exponentially growing. With visually, you will be seeing people who are dying. Would you stay home? To do what?

Well, like, let's say, let's say, let's say, first question. Government comes out and says, we're not going to mandate anybody stay home. Here's a news report on what's currently going outside. You decide for yourself. Would you choose to go out or would you stay inside and just lock the door and wear a mask or something? I got to feed myself, so I have to go to work and do things.

Unless they're paying me money, then I won't stay home. That's what I'm saying. They start doing all of the COVID funding stuff, but they say, go outside, do whatever you want. Open your business. Have fun. 60% mortality. This is a question that Ian brought up during the lockdowns or, you know, during lockdown period. He was like, you know, we were saying the lockdowns are wrong. The government should be allowed to do this. And he was just like, unless it's an

airborne Ebola. And I'm like, ah, it's actually an interesting point. The severity of disease matters in whether or not we are willing to tolerate something. Now, a lot of people would still say no. And those are the consensus. A lot of people said no, no mandates choice. If you want to go out during an Ebola pandemic in your own country, like you make that choice to do it, you're going to get sick. But we're talking like 60 percent, 60 percent mortality means, you know, what kind of penetration are we going to see of the virus? And if it's 10 million people, you see 6 million dead.

And that's just 10 million people who catch it. I think a lot of people aren't going to argue about lockdowns. They're going to stay home. It makes me wish they hadn't pulled this card during COVID, right? I mean, COVID was not on the same level as bird flu and people lost trust in these institutions. That's the biggest thing. Like I found 60 through Google, but if you heard a news report that was like, it's actually 65. If there's any kind of discrepancy, then people are going to start to be like, you guys don't give us any information. And this is just a repeat of before. and that had devastating consequences. Like hopefully you would make a decision that's safe based on accurate information.

You know, maybe you would stay home. Ebola for sure. That one sounds real bad. But the problem is that like we went into severe lockdown and got very, very inaccurate reporting on all of this stuff. I mean, even years later, there was just all kinds of data that they were still combing through to try and categorize correctly. And I just think that like that is a deep scar that Americans are not going to get over, even Americans who were compliant initially. I know. I think it's become like the boy who cried wolf where I'm like, I don't really I don't want to listen to you anymore. I don't trust you anymore. So this. Yeah, I'm screw lockdowns. I'm not I'm not doing that. I don't I don't I don't I don't want to listen to you anymore. I don't trust you anymore. So this, yeah, I'm, screw lockdowns.

I'm not doing that. I don't, I think a lot of people might say something like, yeah, they shouldn't be allowed to mandate it. But if you're literally witnessing actual bird flu with 60% of people dying, people are going to stay home. Yeah, if you're seeing your everyday life, right, someone you know, you know what I mean? Besides the news or who telling you how to,

trying to tell you who it is, you're definitely, definitely staying home home or you're going to see people collapsing in the street at that rate right if it's visually yourself do you remember the travel restrictions like there were states that are like if you're coming from the state don't come in here i wonder if that would actually be the first step if people would be open they would want to be able to move in their communities if the infection rate was low but they would be like new york has high rates of bird flu get out of here you cannot come in and you would actually see more serious checks on that because

i think there are people that don't like you can see the logic if it's really dangerous they don't want to risk getting infected on the other hand they don't want to have to live in fear if actually their state is okay and it's just if it's that contagious and everyone's dying like how you're just gonna sit in your house forever and you're just going to, like, you have to get out, you have to get food, you have to do something. You have to be lucky, you got to move out to, hopefully you'll be living out in the rural areas when this happens. Yeah. If you're not, otherwise you're kaput, good luck. I feel like everybody in a major city, we already saw them accept lockdowns.

Yeah. You give them a bird flu and they're going to demand it twice over and then i think a lot of conservatives and libertarians will complain about the government mandates but they're still going to abide by it for their own sake there's a big difference between covid which i mean what was the mortality was like 0.2 to 0.6 or something tiny or less than that it might have been like at the beginning they didn't know the beginning, they didn't know. That's what I thought, 0.0234. Yeah, it's like double that of the flu right now, which means most people probably, you know, when I had it, it was extremely bad.

It was worryingly bad. And I was going to, I tried to go to the hospital. Bird flu at 60% mortality? Holy crap. Well, thank you. It's going to, I mean,

understand what 60% mortality means too. That means 99% for people over a certain age and under a certain age. Wasn't there bird flu a while back, like 10-something years ago? Longer than that. There was like a big outbreak of avian flu back in the day. Yeah, but not with humans. And this is the first case. They have H5 without a known occupational exposure of sick or infected animals.

So this is like they're not with animals. They're not near infected people. Somehow this person got it. So that's a little scary too. And also at least Social Security will be saved in the future if this thing happens. Terrifying. Yeah. I'd want to know where the 60% comes from too.

Yeah. Like I said, that was the first thing that came up on Google. Don't use it as like a complete resource. So this, and I want you a clarification.

They're saying the first case in Missouri. Oh. And I think they titled this a little poorly. First human case of bird flu in Missouri confirmed.

That's what it should say. Because the way they wrote it makes it seem like it's the first time someone in the U.S. has gotten it. But we have this from the CDC. 13 total reported human cases in the u.s i don't i don't

know what would be accomplished by like i guess if bird flu happens it happens i don't know how someone makes bird flu happen the thing is i'm actually more concerned about the listeria outbreak that's been found in. Oh, deli meat. Yeah, which is something a lot of people consume. There have been deaths from it. It affects Americans across the country. Why do we need to whip up a pandemic out of bird flu?

Why can't we talk about like our food safety in this country? But for some reason, like listeria outbreaks aren't as interesting to the mainstream media. I haven't heard about it. It's big. It's a really big deal. Boar's Head has recalled tons of food. I love Boar's Head. No, I did not know.

See, that's not the big deal. Wouldn't you want to know that? No. I know about H5. Like, when you're in the grocery store, there is a higher risk right now that you would get listeria than you would get bird flu. And everyone goes to the grocery store. Yeah, check this out.

First wrongful death lawsuit filed in Boar's Head Listeria outbreak. 57 victims in 18 states have tested positive for Listeria poisoning. So what does that do when you get Listeria? 88-year-old Gunther Morgenstein bought Boar's Head Liverwurst after eating it became ill. Then he died after 10 days in the hospital from a brain infection caused by Listeria bacteria, an illness that was confirmed to be linked to the contaminated boar's head

products, the AP reported. Yo, that's crazy. So far what? At least 57 people in 18 states have become sick and 9 have died from this. I always heard when I was pregnant not to eat deli meat because of Listeria yeah and so i

wonder if it's not always super bad but i think it comes reasonably often bad yeah i think it's like that is one of the food products that's most prone to it but like there's a confirmed outbreak in the u.s right now that seems really bad and like the symptoms are fever vomiting like all sorts of gastroenterological stuff but you know that comes with the risks of like severe dehydration if you have any other medical injuries if you're immunocompromised like the stuff that they talked about with covid but also worse because it could be in your sandwich that seems rough to me why don't we talk about this more i used to write a lot about recalls for scanner like when when products would get recalled, because I just think it's really

something that impacts people day to day, but also for some reason just never gets the coverage. We'd rather talk about, you know, MPOX, which only affects a certain, you know, group of people right now, whereas anybody could potentially be exposed to contaminated food. It's the vibe. This vibe isn't as... It's not. Look, it's not sexy.

Listeria does not sell. It's the vibe. This vibe isn't as exciting. Look, it's not sexy. Listeria does not sell. It's not very bright. Jason Hutchinson superchatted a good point. He says that 60% mortality would burn out too fast. This is the issue with why Ebola doesn't spread as crazily as people

might fear. The disease is so brutal that people get terrified. It debilitates, it disables the individual so they can't spread it. And the most successful viruses are like the common cold, which is actually a whole bunch of different ones. But it's because the symptoms are super mild and people might be like, I don't know, I've got the sniffles. I don't want to stay home. And they go out and they infect everybody. But if you're seriously ill and throwing up and can't move, you can't leave your house. You're not infecting anybody. That does make sense, Jason Hutchinson.

It's a good point. That could be another reason why COVID was more widespread. Aside from being novel, it was serious with its mortality was, I think, twice that of the flu. But enough to where people might be like, it's just a cough. I'm fine. And then wasn't it like you're asymptomatic for a while when you were spreading it or something? Yeah, it didn't hit you right away.

Yep. You carried it around and then you pass it on to your buddies. Yeah, that's crazy. I don't know, man. These are... I just... What is happening to the world?

Is the simulation breaking down? Are we done? Because too many weird things are happening all at once. It's just like, slow down, planet. Jeez. Or moving on to Arc 2 or like Arc 3, you know? Different arc system. The season finale is coming up.

Yeah, because we had the nothing industrial revolution, technology. Let's see what's going to happen. That's the October surprise. The October surprise is that like a giant face appears in the sky and it's just like, it was a game the whole time. Bye-bye.

And then that's it. We just blink out of existence we're gone i don't know man i don't i hope not i don't know man i don't i like i want to live a little bit longer yeah all right well let's jump to this story alan dershowitz prominent attorney and lifelong democrat leaves the democratic party how can this be the case? Why? He's a lifelong Democrat. He's announced his departure from the Democratic Party. He's a prominent figure. This is Vin News. Are there better sources on this one? What is this? Let me check out the one I pulled up. Vin News?

I mean, yeah, I heard of this too. And so, uh, Dershowitz announces he's leaving the Democratic Party. Is that, is there more news to that? that actually I don't see any other sources. Does he have a tweet about it? Well, apparently in 2016, he threatened to leave the the Democratic Party if Keith Ellenson became the chair. So I guess there's a video. I think he hold there were no fine people at the debate at the standing outside of the convention center and screaming Hamas will win, screaming we are all Hamas, screaming there was nothing wrong with October 7th.

What's wrong with October 7th? Somebody said, no, there aren't fine people and they don't make fine points. And so I was disgusted at the Democratic National Convention. Absolutely disgusted. We're speaking with Harvard Law Professor Emeritus Alan Avi Dershowitz. So are you ready to leave the Democratic Party? Democratic Party. I am no longer a Democrat. Wow. OK. I am an independent. I'll decide who to vote for at the last minute based on totality of the circumstances. I want to see how they deal with Iran. I want to see how they deal if Iran attacks the United States. I want to encourage the current administration to support Israel. So I'm not revealing my vote until, you know, maybe November 1st. I'd hate to hear all the information, all the evidence, but I am no longer a member of the

Democratic Party. When did you resign the Democratic Party? Well, gradually over time, I think a lot of things pushed me in that direction. Kamala Harris's failure to comply with her constitutional obligation to preside over the Senate and the House joint sessions for not to push me a lot over that. And what Joe Biden said pushed me over that. But the Israel thing's really interesting, too, with how crazy everything is. That I don't understand the political bias. Dershowitz is saying he's not a Democrat anymore because these protesters outside are praising Hamas, condemning Israel. Kamala Harris tries to play

both sides in this debate like they've tried to court the anti-Israel left. Is the right for for Trump going to end up being overwhelmingly pro-Israel? Like, I don't I don't he's saying he's the Democratic Party's an independent, so he's certainly not going to be voting for Kamala he said she she you know irked him is he going to vote for Trump is is any candidate sufficiently pro-Israel at this point for for anybody for like for Democrats or Republican voters who are pro-Israel I don't understand I think when you think of pro-Israel you don't you think more of a conservative than a Democrat especially now for sure actually now and just seeing all the things that they're saying, it's like, I don't know, just like

the vibe of the Democratic Party is so extreme and violent and gross. I feel like it's kind of a similar thing of when people ask me, why are you not a feminist? It's like, feminists seem miserable and angry. And I don't know. I feel like he gets the same feelings from those people. And he's like, I can't be part of this. I don't want to be part of this. There's a viral video where some guy walked up to these protesters.

Like there's two guys in a car and the American hostage was killed and the guy driving says that the guy deserved it. It's like this is a guy who was at a music festival, had no idea what was going on, and gets kidnapped and killed. And there's a guy in a car, I guess it was in New York, I'm not sure where it was, I saw this video. It is insane to me that Kamala Harris would try to placate these individuals. Like, for what reason are you doing this, and what do you hope to gain?

I don't know, man. It sounds like what Dershowitz is saying is that voting for Trump is the pro-Israel side. But there's a lot of people on the right who do not like Israel and who have said they would vote for Kamala if Kamala came out as anti-Israel. So then it's like, what is this? Is the DOJ also anti-Israel? Is the deep state opposed to Israel? Donald Trump represents the anti-establishment candidate. I honestly can't figure this one out. Dershowitz had tweeted in April that he would leave the DNC if they cut funding to Israel. And so I think this is just this ideological battle that is more prominent on the Democratic side of the aisle than it is on Republicans. There are Republicans who feel strongly about Palestine or Israel or whatever, but, you know, it's not to the extent that Democratic voters do.

And they, you know, Biden and Harris have both failed to message effectively because you'd have to take a definitive stance. I don't think that there either might be some kind of compromise you could work out between these two sides, but I just really don't think so. And so everyone ends up unhappy and you get people who are like, well, this is my issue. This is the thing that I will stake my vote on. Hasn't Trump said that he's like the most pro-Israel president? Yes, he did. If anyone's going to, you know, support Israel, it'd be definitely Trump. This is what I find absolutely wild. The Democrats absolutely are not the most pro-Israel, though I certainly think the deep state behind them is going to be pro-Israel.

It's weird that I think if Democrats win, they're going to be funding Israel for sure. They have no choice. I think if Donald Trump wins, he's going to be funding Israel for sure. So it's like almost just the Israel thing is a foregone conclusion. But Dershowitz backing with the Democratic Party over this is kind of just like, OK, I guess like it isn't there. There are issues where these the deep state and Trump and these factions are at odds. And it certainly is not Israel. I think no matter who you vote for, you're getting a well-funded Israel. That's not going to change. Interestingly, though, the Republicans don't want to fund Ukraine, which is much more interesting.

They've been getting a lot more money. So I wonder what happens if Republicans win and what happens with Ukraine conflict. Yeah. Do you remember at that town hall that Trump did and she was like, Caitlin, what's her name, was pushing him about the Ukraine conflict and Trump eventually was like,

I just don't want people to die. Right. I just want it to be over. Like, it is interesting that you could be an anti-war voter and ultimately look at Trump and be like, he's more likely to end war. So if you I mean, logically to me, like if you were like pro ceasefire, you want the hostage return, you want a complete ceasefire. Seems like Trump would be the better negotiator because Biden's had all this time. He hasn't done anything. and kamala won't commit to it i i wonder man at this point in everything i don't i'm not even convinced that a vote for trump is like i was saying earlier in the show is going to end war like i think we're entrenched to this point i don't know how you

recover or how you de-escalate from ukraine invading russia like we gave them too much money and assets to just stop them to take it away from them right away. I mean, have it. So they're you. I don't know if you need to say too much. We gave them money and resources, right? Yeah. Yeah. Maybe not too much. Right. Sure. And so with Ukraine invading Russia, what I find it substantially more difficult for Donald Trump to come in and negotiate an end to this, especially if Putin is utilizing the conflict to mobilize in his own country that they've been invaded. Trump's going to have a lot harder of a time going in and negotiating a stop to this because

now it's not Russia invading Ukraine and giving anything up. It's Ukraine invading Russia. Do you think that's why Zelensky did it? Do you think that like feeds into the timing of why he moved into Russia now because he can see that time is running out? Maybe it's to put the war in a position that can't be easily ended. Yeah. It would at this point. Or I guess maybe the gambit is at this point a negotiated end to the war if Trump does win is natural borders of Ukraine and Russia.

Maybe. I just think if you're Zelensky, you make a lot of money on this, so you don't want it to be settled quickly. You need it to last a little bit longer. But what's the point of making money if you don't have a country? I don't really think that's what he cares about. I'm also very cynical.

After all of this, you think he moves somewhere else? I think all their politicians who are stealing money can just bounce out somewhere. But Zelensky, as the president of Ukraine, I don't know that there is a after this. I mean, like Afghanistan was never ending. And it's still in conflict and chaos that we're not there. Like the Afghanis are a lot of like people who worked with the United States and translators just there. And a lot of them are dying and not getting evacuated or whatever

assumes that worse comes to worse he'll live in exile in america where he'll be a highly paid speaker who'll tour you know america talking about you know i don't know being a strong leader and an actor living in exile right like there are options for him that wouldn't be true for ukrainians who live on the ground in the middle of conflict. I don't know how this conflict stops, even with Trump going in without him giving up Sevastopol. I don't know. Did we not give them all the money? Like we said they're going to get it, but we didn't send everything to them yet, correct?

If I'm not mistaken. I think it comes and it comes and goes in waves. Don't we not track it either? We don't know where it goes. Nobody knows. Very true. Yeah. What a crazy system. And you can ask Kamala Harris about that.

Again, ask her about what's your plan for that. Again, you want to be in charge. What is your specific plan for this? I feel like she keeps everyone distracted talking about abortion and talking about being a strong woman and that kind of stuff. And it's like she's dodging questions about this, about foreign policy and about the border. And for someone who really, really wants to be president, she's done very few interviews and given very few concrete promises.

That seems sketchy to me, you know, 60 days out from the election. It's not like everything's peaceful and you're going to become the president. You have a war on your hands, basically. And you're you again, you have no policy. You have nothing to say about that. That's going to become the president, like you have a war on your hands, basically. And you're, you again, you have no policy. You have nothing to say about that. That's going to be really interesting on Tuesday. Yeah. What can she say about Ukraine?

I just don't get it. You know, like the thing about, the thing about it is with these other wars we've had, we've had Cassius Belli. We had 9-11. That rallied everybody to war. Ukraine, we've had nothing. For what reason are we spending money in this place? Russia's bad. Remember what Kamala said? Russia's a big country and Ukraine's a smaller country. And so it was bad that Russia invaded

and it's just like, okay, now explain to me why that's our business. I suppose they could have, I mean, like, I think people watch the show know, Burisma, Energy, Gazprom, Qatar Turkey pipeline, all that stuff. Can they not just say that? Can they not just say that Russia and its allies were trying to strangle out our means of conveying energy to our European allies, which was causing stagnation, recession, depression, death. And when we tried to counter, they blocked us and it led to war. I don't know. That's too honest. But what's wrong with being honest? It's a good question. Nothing. Maybe the end goal of all these blind zealots waving Ukrainian flags is that

now they're so blindly marching in lockstep, you can tell them the truth and they won't care about the morality of it. Like at this point, if the U.S. government came out and literally said to the Democrats, we were trying to build a pipeline that would compete with with Gazprom to reduce the cost of energy because you see the riots that are happening in Europe. You see the cost of fuel. People were struggling. And Russia was using this against our allies, our neighbors, our friends. And when we tried to build a pipeline, we were blocked by by Russia, who went to Syria and said, don't let them do this, which is anti-competitive. And it resulted in an escalation of conflict because they're cut. They're strangling us out energy wise. They could say that. And Democrats would be like, yep, we got to stop stop russia i mean that would be very nice if we got honesty out of our politicians germany is has issued a warrant for the arrest of a

ukrainian for blowing up nord stream too wait when this is this is this is uh i don't know was it last month or something oh you guys you see this other story let me pull this one up uh germany warrant ukraine yeah here you go politico.eu germany uh we got it right here Germany warrant. Ukraine. Yeah, here you go. Politico.eu. Germany. We got it right here. Germany issued arrest warrant for Ukrainian over Nord Stream bombing, reports say.

The suspect was able to evade the arrest warrant. It was a Ukrainian who blew up the Russian Nord Stream pipeline. This should be a debate question. Why is this? I feel like the voters have an attention span of this long. They don't care. Yeah, but I'm saying why obfuscate the purpose

for the conflict? Like the Burisma scandal with Joe Biden? Why obfuscate it? I don't understand. The Democrats are voting in lockstep and you'd probably earn the respect of at least some people on the right if you told the real reason why we were engaging in this. Unless there's more to it. And it's not just as simple as that.

Sure. But at the least they could say is that like they could at least talk about what's going on. And then you'd end up with like it's not like these other countries don't know this already. Who are they tricking? I don't I don't I don't understand why they don't just give a reason for for engaging in this war. Putin is Hitler and he's going to take Poland. No, he's not. That's ridiculous.

The only shouldn't have invaded Ukraine. Fine, I get it. But what is our involvement predicated upon? off the cuff reason I could give for for Biden not wanting to make a an energy based argument for being in the war is because he ran with a very intense environmental policy. And so, you know, he made a big deal out of like, you know, EVs or whatever else, like there were American pipelines that people really didn't want him to sign off on. And so if you're saying it's okay in Europe, then like, maybe you would hurt your own base but i think mostly it's just like the joy of lying like there's a level of like we can't tell anyone why

we would have a vested interest in anything for quote-unquote national security even though we don't care about the border maybe they don't want to admit to instigating unrest in syria well we don't want we don't want to admit to anything. We're always the good guys. We never do anything wrong. But everyone in the world knows. It's not like it's a secret. It's American history. Irrelevant to us, though, right?

Like, and us being, like, big government, not me specifically. I honestly think Democrats would earn more votes if they were completely honest. If they, like, they owned their morality and said outright outright we want cheap energy into Europe so Europe's economy grows and it generates revenue for us the American you know like people are going to be like why is the US funding and helping Europe

and if Western powers like they're our allies and we prefer them to win over Russia and China and we want to get cheaper energy and we want to basically disrupt the Russian economy and diminish them as a global power and then after that we want to get cheaper energy and we want to basically disrupt the Russian economy and diminish them as a global power. And then after that, we want to extend our bases across the region. You'd get independent voters being like,

okay, I guess. At least tell me why they're doing it. Not a bad idea. Some people don't care about the war. They care about the lying. Yes. I feel like that's their MO too. It's like they've been doing it for so long

they don't know how to be honest. Yeah, that wouldn't be their vibe to do that. Their vibe. their MO too. It's like they've been doing it for so long. They don't know how to be honest. Yeah. That wouldn't be their vibe to do that. Their vibe. It wouldn't. And it's terrible. It would be refreshing. It would be even like for me, I would be refreshing to see that.

Yeah. Right. As I'm saying, it would be, I would have way more respect than the, the weird, just not talk about it. You know,

like the, what, what I, it's like Trump with the guns and the oil. We got guys over, you know, he's protecting the oil to keep it and sell it. When he, when he like trump with the guns and the oil we got guys over you know he's protecting the oil to keep it and sell it when he when he was going on the plane or the camera uh helicopter and they asked him about the oil and guns over in afghanistan i don't know maybe this is honest about it maybe the sad reality is there's just you know the average person is not

very very uh what was that uh what's the right word i'm thinking of? I'm not trying to say stupid, but disinterested in a sense. Like they don't care what the reason is. And so you can give them as base a reason as possible and it's satisfying. Yeah, Putin's the bad guy. That's why. It's like, all right, whatever. I'm going to go play football. You know, I'm going to go watch the game.

I don't care. I think having a vague explanation like Russia is bad blanket statement without any details works better if you decide ultimately to change your tactic, right? Like if you were like, we have this one specific complaint, you know, energy, then as soon as anyone can spot a way around it, you don't you have to end the war. Whereas if it's just generally like they're the bad guys, then you can justify giving tons of money or, or making, you know, other decisions, admitting them to NATO, all this stuff. It gives you more power because you can, it's flexible around more. Yeah, man. I don't know. I wonder if just like my whole life,

it's been war, you know, and, and this period where we've had this limited warfare that, you know, Ian references like Kissinger and stuff. It's anomalous to the world. The world's just always at war. Maybe, you know, being acting like you can make it all stop and have world peace is just too naive. I don't know. I can't think of a time in my life where there was no war. Well, the thing is, I don't think that there could be a human society that didn't have any kind of conflict that results in violence. Right. Like think of think of the civil wars that are going on in Africa right now.

Like there's all kinds of tensions that we don't talk about on the scale. We talk about Ukraine, Israel. Obviously, there's like bigger economic consequences to that. I think we would we would want as many people on Earth to get along and treat each other respectfully and peacefully. But ultimately, the idea that we would live in a world with no violence at all is, you know, contrary to all of human history. Of course, I guess it's a question of what happens when the U.S. loses its hegemonic position. Yeah. Which feels like it's coming. I think it's coming. And I think the sad part, too, about like I've never lived at a time where there wasn't war either.

But I think our generations have become numb to it where we see, oh, Ukraine invaded Russia. I don't care. Okay, whatever. And you need to pay attention to that because eventually it's like coming closer and closer. One day you're going to wake up in a conflict and not know why if you're not paying attention yep you can't become numb to it but my my my growing concern is just is there is like what does the world look like you know we're looking at the end of the petrodollar bricks nations having this convention to raise their own currency what does the world look like for the united states when the u.s loses this position and so like the analogy i gave in

the past couple days is you know trump's attitude is pull the car over fix the brakes fix the change the tires work on the engine and you know the democrats scream that'll put us like russia and china are going to zoom past us we can't let happen. And so their attitude is slam the pedal to the metal and just take the car until the engine bursts. Yeah, the nuts flying off and the doors falling off. Maybe we'll win the race. Yeah. And then we can fix the car later or something.

Very short-term-sided, I feel like, whereas you have to think big on this. You have to think long-term about this kind of stuff and think about, like, the next generations and your children. And what what is the United States? What does the world look like 30, 40 years from now? China taking over. Elton Road initiative, colonial expansion into South America and Africa. The Chinese Communist Party having global hegemonic power and a unipolar Chinese Communist Party world.

Even though even with their population and everything failing. I don't know. It's like all these conflicting narratives. It's just like, I don't know. You know, it's wild. And you think that no matter if Trump wins? At this point with Ukraine invading Russia, I don't know what,

I don't know if there's an easy answer for Trump to deescalate this. Certainly he can call Putin and say we're going to walk things back. But now Putin's going to be like, you gave, like your country gave weapons to them them and invaded us. And then he's going to have demands that Trump's not going to want to give into. And then. I don't like at this point in the war, it does seem like restore the natural borders and end the invasion from Russia.

Ukraine remains retains its original positions would have to be Trump's position based on like at this point with Ukraine invading Russia. How does Trump negotiate? No, no, no, no, no. We're going to pull all the Ukrainians back and give you more. Like, how do you how do you argue that? No, Trump would have to say Ukrainians are going to withdraw from the Russian territory and the borders will take their original positions.

That's why I don't know what I can tell you. this is I don't know why we're involved in it. Yeah. It's always been a mystery to me. I mean, like, I literally know energy. That's the real reason that we want to shut like they what do they call Russia? It's a gas. They call it a gas station with snow or something. I don't know some phrase for it.

But the West wants to basically shut them out and they want to control the flow of energy without interference from from Russia. You know, I think the reason why the U.S. is like under under Obama and why they were so pissed at Trump. China is the bigger threat in the bigger picture. But I think the strategy from NATO is to take is is to destroy Russia's economy and them as a, as a regional power. And then China falls like a, like a paper tiger. But if there,

if, if the U S allows Russia to continue to control the energy into Europe, then Russia and China combined makes it more difficult for NATO to gain control of these other territories. But don't get me wrong. You got Australia and U S forces gearing up for Taiwan to gain control of these other territories. But don't get me wrong. You got Australia and U.S. forces gearing up for Taiwan and the BRICS nation expansion. I don't see how this ends well.

And I will stress all of this was going on well before Trump got elected. Russia and China were planning on dumping dollars and these moves were happening. So it seemed like no matter what, the war was inevitable so long as the West refuses to give up this hegemonic power. Well, definitely, if we don't address China like the threat that it actually is, like that's what's always bothered me. I know that China and Russia have their own relationship and dynamic. But the way the criticism of Russia is, to me, has always seemed far more intense than China, even though China has a huge influence on our country, our country economically. And for whatever reason,

probably because we have a lot of, it, China has a lot of influence in American politics. We just don't talk about it. Yeah. We talk about how about Russia gate, you know, coming in and interfering with the election and everything,

but we don't, they never talk about China. They never talk about China interfering with anything. And they are. China's been cyber-attacking the U.S. for decades. This was a huge story 10 years ago. Alright, we're going to go to Super Chat, so if you haven't already, would you kindly smash that like button,

subscribe to this channel, share this with your friends, head over to TimCast.com, click join us to become a member and support our work directly because, oh boy, dark days indeed. I don't know where all this is going, man, but we got some news, and we could use your support at TimCast.com. Believe Kai says, yo, man, I think Anna is going to vote for Trump,

and dare I say if she keeps pushing him, Jank will too. Maybe. You know, Anna was tweeting about Colorado and the gangs that took over, and I'm not sure if this was her, but I think it was her making the point that the police had been warning about these gangs for like a year. Then when the story comes out, these videos of the gangs taking over these apartments, these corporate news outlets are like,

it's a lie, it's not happening. Tucker Carlson's pushing fake news. And she's like, what? Like, you can just read the news report from last year. What is this? And this is the weirdest thing to me about the current state of where we are. It's like there is some kind of chaos warp. This is the way the media runs. Like I said, Politico has got two stores at the same time.

Ukraine interfered in our election. That claim is actually Russian disinfo. They're accusing themselves of being Russian disinformation. It's the, it's like, maybe it's intentionally meant to be confusing. I don't know. All right, let's go. Small mouse in a big field says, not first, not last. Welcome to Timcast. Hey, what up? Tactiplight says, beware of big avocado. They're bigger than big cilantro. Yes, but indeed, sir, avocados are based. They're based AF. Tim Brackett says, buy coffee and work out. Right on. All right.

Harlan the Human says, watched Ian Gaming as my Timcast pre-show today. Well, how fun. All right. Jashabeam Kildon says, the Lotus Eaters podcast did a lovely bit about the tenant debacle and except for one of them almost calling you a donkey, it was completely positive. You know, I don't know. We'll have some developments next week, I suppose. But I don't know. I probably shouldn't say too much considering, you know, what's going on with the ongoing investigation.

But I've been thinking about this all day and I feel conflicted on even talking about the Ukraine-Russia stuff, considering I actually feel kind of personally slighted by Russia. Like, I'm quite pissed off. You know what I mean? Like you didn't get any. Like, they're effing with me. Personally, me. Like I'm just some dude who I don't want to be in the news. I want to mind my own business. I want to complain about the news.

I want to talk about politics. I want to talk about polling numbers. But I don't have anything to do with like the actual internals. And they decide to screw me over in this regard. Pisses me off to an extreme degree. So I'm like, I'm kind of pissed off off i don't know how else to put it and uh i blame russia i don't know i don't know i'm can i'm it's like they i don't know they're they're fucking with me you know what i mean i don't i don't know it's fucking shit i'm just sitting here minding my own business trying to do a podcast about American domestic issues.

Hanging out. And then this shit drops. I don't know what to say. So it's fucked up. It's pissing me off. I don't know, man. Maybe I'm just an idiot. Whatever.

Call me what you want to call me. All right, let's go. A lad who ate four dozen eggs says, you're lagging, bro. Yeah, we were lagging. I think it got worked out, though. So I think we're good. Jason Abbey says, your show is the best to share with lefty friends since you're evidence-based and usually avoid rhetoric and name-calling. There are some people we call names.

Sometimes. Yeah, but I probably say evil the most when I'm referring to people I don't like. All right. Radioactive Rat says, you could make a drinking game out of this morning's Culture War podcast with how often John Devaney said the word okay. He was a cool dude, though. So, shout out. He's got that movie City of Dreams, which is about human trafficking,

and they're pulling the movie out of theaters. Very weird. The dude seems very nice. And like, he's very emotional about this ending trafficking stuff, but I don't think he's super political. So I don't think he quite understands the dynamics that are at play in the political space

as to why the theater is maybe trying to remove a movie about human trafficking, which is what he described as a call to action to get people to stop the trafficking. You know? It's sort of rushing to have someone that is like, hey, I just think human trafficking is bad. No political angle.

It's crazy that that's become a political thing. You say, oh, I made a movie about human trafficking. You must be right-wing. Political now. It's like, what does that say about? I think we should just be universally against human trafficking. Yeah, that should not be a political thing at all. Agreed.

Sensei says, Tim, do you think that the Crowder Undercover special had anything to do with Trump sentencing pushback? I think it's possible. I think it's certainly possible. That was, that was seriously bad for them. This is a DOJ public affairs

in Southern District of New York being like, this case is bunk. He's just layering things and rearranging things. I mean, that makes it look really bad. Him coming out and saying, I didn't actually mean it doesn't doesn't help him out. I feel like they're going to wait two, three months and then they're going to let him go.

Like this is them saying, you better say it's not true to save your job and he's ultimately going to lose it anyways. So I say just stick to it. Stick to it. Would have been better. Ducky J. Newcomb says, if your pending lawsuit ends up costing more than you can muster, would you consider selling the coffee shop to make up the difference? No. What happens is you run out of money and it just stops. You know what I mean? Like a lot of people engage in lawsuits, you run out of money, and then that's, there you go. Lawsuits are very, very difficult and extremely expensive. So, hey, it is what it is. Nicholas McPherson says, hey, Tim Kasteen, my new book, Fractured

Sky, launches September 9th. And I'd love a shout out. Kickstart pre-launch pages live. Check it out. Thanks and God bless. Narwhal Games says, Did anyone else see that several high-ranking officials in New York were arrested? Were they arrested or were they just raided by the feds?

These are the people attached to Mayor Eric Adams. Oh, right, right, right, right. Is that, I don't know if he's referring to someone up like the thing from earlier this week where one of kathy hokal's former aides was uh charged with being a foreign agent new york's had a rough week yeah i'm not sure if they're talking about city or state you know yeah plus what you mentioned the chinese spy is that what it was? Because that's like Hochul's office. That's the governor. Right. But then you could be talking about today with the people affiliated with Adams.

The Quartering says YouTube just banned another Tenet creator, Taylor Hansen. Are they going to purge everyone? Yeah, Taylor Hansen's YouTube channel is gone. He hadn't posted there in a year, but they deleted it. It's gone. It's deleted. Which is interesting because yesterday he posted, you know, Tenet's over. I have to move to pursue new things. I mean, because that's his career. He's gone. It's deleted. Which is interesting because yesterday he posted you know, ten it's over. I have to move to pursue new things. I mean

because that's his career. He's newly married. And so you would think that his YouTube channel would then play into how he's going to support himself. And that is now gone. Yeah. They give a reason? He repeated violations of the community guidelines. So. I just don't believe that. He nuked it out right. You know. Yeah, I don't. I mean the election

is two months away and all of a sudden we're getting that right. You know. Yeah, I don't. I mean, the election's two months away and also we're getting this cascade, you know. Barely a millennial says, is there any scandal regarding Harris waltz that would allow the left to accept a Trump win? DNC wasn't too crazy. Maybe post election won't be either. I don't think there's a scandal that would upset them. Like the right was upset when that stuff came out about what's his name? Doug, Doug Emhoff and his, you know, the end of his marriage. He had this affair. It seemed like he had gotten this woman who was both his kid's babysitter and also their school teacher pregnant. You know, it seems like that maybe has ended in an abortion.

That that's not a that that upsetsets conservatives but i don't think it upsets democrats the same way uh and especially if they're running a trump will end our country and world like they'll be able to forgive a lot of sort of social scandals patriot rob says i'm going to laugh at trump wins california and new york you mean if? Or you're going to laugh at Trump? Yeah, if. I think you mean if? I don't see Trump winning California and New York. You know, with Biden, there was a possibility he could have won New York, for sure.

They had to get him out of there. And they did. There you go. Jonathan says, I've seen one Harris sign in East Central Wisconsin. Trump signs everywhere you look. And please go up to the Harris signs if you can without, you know, going on anyone else's property and see if they are Harris wall signs or like I have really discovered ones that were Biden Harris and they just cut Biden off because I think those are really funny and we should save them in memoriam. William Kelly says the play from Trump's team should be we're going to win, but let's show them the red wave that they fear.

No matter the polls, no matter the predictions, let's vote and show them. Here, here. Indeed. If any, if 2016 taught us anything, it was just ignore the polls and go vote. Because also down ticket, like even if you think we're not going to win the White House, then you really, really want Congress and Senate to to lean in your favor to have your values yeah you don't want them getting all three a merrick says trump needs to make an emotional ad from an innocent guy harris kept on death row something that will tug at the heartstrings of people who vote with their feelings it's not a bad idea yep a lot of people didn't like that when they heard about that. Yeah, she, I think the full context of the story was that she was instructed by the feds

to release a certain amount of inmates, and she tried stopping doing this so that she could use them to fight wildfires. So it's like, well, I'm supposed to release these guys, but dollar an hour life-threatening work is hard to come by. Hard to get taken care of, actually. Amal Harris, pro-slavery. Yep. All right.

What is this? Just because I'm free, so anybody else heard about Poder Latinx in Arizona? Apparently it's a Democrat voter registration organization that's registering people outside of DMVs,

saying all you need to register is a driver's license. What else is going on? Wasn't that the justification for like Texas said? Was it Texas? Arizona just had the judge say that they can enforce the requirement that people show ID before vote or no proof of citizenship before voting in state level elections. And they caught like just today, I think they caught like all 15 counties in Arizona had been registering non-citizens or doing something like that. So again,

swing state really important. You would call that election interference, but big 75, 88 says Germans tried to make a decoy airfield of mock planes. The allies dropped a fake bomb on it. Is that true? That's like an insult. It's true?

Serge is saying yes. All right. They dropped a fake bomb on it? That's funny, too. A fake bomb? Salah says, what kind of primaries did the DNC have? How do they not even smell what we all saw coming for months or years? The debate.

The people at the top lied to everyone for so long. And the media was complicit. That's the major thing. Any media outlet that was like Joe Biden's doing great. Everything is fine. They lied to you. I mean, even if they didn't want to speculate on dementia, Alzheimer's, some of the stuff that other people have, they could have always been honest and said his speech is slurred. He is not the same energetic person for and said they just would cut up his speeches. They wouldn't give full sound bites. They pretended obvious gaffes weren't happening. And that's what Harris did, too.

And that's why at the debate, Trump needs to say, why? I thought you said Biden was doing great. Are you were you lying? He was doing great. Why'd you take a spot? Why are you here? If what you said was true again, just. Yeah, no, it's a good one.

We've got to write down this list of things that Trump needs to press Kamala on for specifics. We haven't recorded. Oh, yeah, that's true. We're live. The bonus poll says, I just upped my TimCast membership from $10 per month to $25 per month. Keep fighting the good fight, sir. Thank you very much. If you'd like to support our work, go to TimCast.com.

You can click sign up or join us on the website. And that makes the show operate. Stephanie Hill says Hillary lost because no one wants Clinton's back in the White House. Imagine the scandals Bill with nothing but time on his hands would have put Hunter to shame. Yikes. Well, I don't know. Team Zeppelin says, Tim, I'm a pharmacist and you are wrong. Carrots contain vitamin A, which your eyes use to make visual purple. Is that what it is? Which helps you see better at night. Humph.

Well, I know that's true, but I'm saying that they made up this story that they were improving their eyesight with carrots so that they could see the targets at night which was silly ryan sargent says tim look it up in 1980 u.s literacy was 99.5 percent 2024 u.s literacy rate 79 percent wow so i'm right something happened recently nah it's 44 years it's a public education system but i mean it could be that we are literally seeing a decline from, like, that would mean that in the 90s it's probably around like 95% or something. And so now it just genuinely feels like there's a lot of people who have no idea what's going on.

Yeah, it's crazy. I don't understand how this is operable for the powers that be at all. Unless it's a managed decline of the United States, the intentional destruction. I think they moved the markers to see this was like public education. I was just reading about this, but I don't want to quote it too intensely because I can't remember the specifics. But, you know, developmental milestones, I think it was the CDC have changed them for children, like if they were supposed to say their first word by or say a certain number

of words by the time they were a year old now it's something like 18 months old and so in some ways like maybe that's managed decline but maybe that's just also this like general softening of our standards like they they don't want anyone to feel as though they aren't striving to hit certain goals and so they just lower all of the thresholds not thinking about the consequences of doing that. Dirty Dan Roberson says, I live in an old wooden sailboat in Alaska. It's a fun life, but yes, a lot of work to keep the ship and keep the ship shape. Keep it the good work team.

See, this is where I will concede I was wrong all those years ago when I said a van down by the river. What you really want to get is a catamaran. Those things are awesome. Yeah, they're a bit more stable. They're not going to flip over when, you know, someone, some jerk speeds through the no-wake zone or whatever. It'll just rock kind of heavily.

But I went on a boat ride over Labor Day, and there's like a kitchen, and there's like a big table, you know, in the back. You hang out. There's solar panels, Starlink. Four bedrooms. Yeah, four bedrooms.link. Four bedrooms. When I lived in Dallas, there was that Ebola outbreak and there was a nurse who got sick

and stuff like that. And I knew this girl. I think her dad lived in a houseboat off of Galveston, off the coast in Texas. And she'd be like, it's fine. If it just gets bad, we'll just push off the coast for a while. Like a van, you would still be trapped by the landlocked U.S. highway system. But with a boat, just push off the coast

Here's a question If you have a boat like that can you just land on some random island like uninhabited island and just grab some fruit and then just leave? Yeah, why not? Unless somebody already lives there and is mad about it

but then you just have to defend yourself And I don't think they pay taxes If your home is on the water land. On a boat? Yeah, I don't. I'm sure the government is like there's some kind of property tax. I used to watch a show about Alaska. They used to, you know, live off the grid, but they would be stationed

in the water and not have to pay taxes. Not have anything to do with the federal. But like close enough to land? Right, they take a little tiny boat, you know, 40 feet, 30 feet to the land, but they're off, they're stationed. You have to be more than like an arm's distance away? I mean, I don't know the exact., 40 feet, 30 feet to the land. But they're off. They're stationed. You have to be more than like an arm's distance away. I mean, I don't know the exact.

You can't reach out and touch the land. It's a real show. But yeah. Tim is getting very quiet, planning his catamaran. He's thinking about getting a boat. He's thinking hard. I'm just like, I don't know if I can take care of him. I thought we talked about the fact that boats are difficult to manage.

I know. We were talking about, is it possible to do this show from a boat? How cool would that be? Just in a boat? Well, we're in a landlocked state, so I feel like my commute's about to get real difficult. Yeah. Yeah, that's right. But we are only like an hour and a half from Annapolis.

That's true. Live from Annapolis. Annapolis is beautiful. I got a lot of boats. Maryland, but beautiful. Can you imagine? Welcome to our thing. IRL. Live from a boat. Annapolis is beautiful. I got a lot of boats. Maryland, but beautiful. I'd go to that. Can you imagine? Welcome to our thing and then to get special stabilizers in case there's like a lot of heavy current.

All right. Grislock says the vibe right now is the cartoon rejected by Don Hertzfeld. My anus is bleeding. You guys remember that one? Nope. The rejected cartoons? You must be an internet person to know that one. Not it.

You guys are more hip than I am. Than we are. All right. I'm just a boomer. What can I say? Jason Hutchinson says, Nancy, you have to pass the bill to see what's in the bill. Kamala, you have to elect me to see the policies. True.

Similar vibe from our California political women. Vibe is the word of the night, night apparently you say it once and it's contagious I didn't realize how much I said weird until Democrats tried to make it their thing and then I realized it's always been a part of my vocabulary Skibbity says H5N1 was identified in humans in 1997 oh you see

there you go Mike Pierce says I'm a truck driver and delivered a dollar general on the on the west coast covid was a wild time bird flu would be nuts mask up and keep trucking good luck mike thank you for being a truck driver that's how we get our commerce everywhere sniper olink says i work for a hospital in missouri to check in you have to give your social security number i can't count how many times people have come in and put their social in because they

and can't put their social in because they don't have one everywhere. Yeah, because the fertility rate right now is 1.6. 1.6. In 16 years, we are not going to have enough replacement workers to keep jobs up. Basic mathematical

fact. You've got a combination of older people who die and older people who retire. And you need four workers per one Social Security recipient. So if birth rates right now are 1.6, give it 16 years. Yeah, our generation is going to grow up. There's so many people, again, who comment on my stuff and be like, you don't need to have kids. You're overpopulating. Who are you going to depend on when you're older?

I'm not saying just your own children, but you're going to be depending on somebody else's children. People who are children now are going to be the ones making it so you can exist later in life. You don't, we need. Maybe they want. Like, if you don't want to have your, if you personally don't want to have kids, you should want all of your friends to have kids. And you should be throwing them baby showers all the time. And you should be caring about the future, too. Right.

We actually need a great American baby boom. And if you feel strongly you don't want to do it, you should want everyone around you to. Because that's who is going to be there when you need support from society. Yeah. And no matter how independent you are now, we're all going to get old and sick. And you're going to need someone. Maybe they want around 500 million people. Oh, like those, like the Georgia Stones.

Did they rebuild those? Not to my knowledge. Search might. No? No. Because some guy blew him up or something. Didn't he like rammed a car into him or what did he do? It's been so long.

Didn't he? Yeah, he blew him up. I don't know if he ran a car into him, but I remember explosives on the video. Yeah, that's crazy. And him running away from it. Yeah. For those that aren't familiar, there was like every language basic arithmetic star chart like you could look through a hole and see like planets or whatever and it had uh guide like like the rules for rebuilding civilization and the conspiracy theorists think it was like the plan

of of the global elite but i think the actual idea was it was the height of the Cold War and people were like, hey, if we go into nuclear annihilation, we need something that will last forever that can translate all these. You know, like the Rosetta Stone, they argue for a while they argued we would never have understood hieroglyphics without the Rosetta Stone, which was a portion of it was Egyptian hieroglyphics and Greek. So we were able to read the Greek and then understand the hieroglyphics. But some people argue we would have figured it out anyway after a certain amount of time. I don't know, maybe. But that's the idea for the Guidestones was we need something that can show the same phrase in all these different languages so you can decipher the language, basic math, so that

when civilization is wiped out, whoever finds this will have a starting point and then people thought it was a conspiracy to destroy the earth or whatever i don't know i think i wonder if the earth is just ending right now anyway to be honest not just like environmentally economically but also just socially like maybe it's just behavioral sync. Everything goes together. Okay. Yeah, like the Rat Utopia project where the rats just, like, went insane. And they all died.

We've maxed out our time here. Yeah. I mean, maybe it's all just falling apart. Georgia Stones, it's funny, the key facts are the last thing is bombed and demolished. They took the small parts, killed everything, just got rid of everything. It's not coming back. It's done.

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