Today, Explained - After the ouster

Episode Date: June 18, 2019

Sudanese protesters pulled off the impossible: ousting dictator Omar al-Bashir. Now, the protestors face a new adversary: al-Bashir's military. Reem Abbas reports on the latest from Khartoum. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Before we get to the show, a note about the Quip electric toothbrush. All of a sudden, the thing just costs $25 at getquip.com slash explained. The first set of refills comes for free. G-E-T-Q-U-I-P dot com slash explained. I can't believe it. The last time I spoke to Reem Abbas in Sudan, she had just returned home and still had tear gas in her eyes from the protests she had been covering.

This morning, I caught her in her car during an internet blackout. I'm using a roaming SIM card. You know, a friend just gave me access to a roaming SIM card. I want to thank them. But yeah, no one has internet basically because all the mobile data is not working. Two days ago, I sent something via Bluetooth. You can imagine.

So yeah, just going back old school. It's funny that Bluetooth is old school now. So where exactly are you right now, Reem? I'm on McNamara Avenue in downtown Khartoum. It's very quiet. Life is not normal. I mean, you just don't have the same in downtown Khartoum. It's very quiet. Life is not normal. I mean, you just don't have the same buzz in Khartoum anymore, like people driving around, you know, busy traffic jams.

You just don't have that. People are scared right now to go out. I think it's a combination of like, I mean, there is still fear, but also just that we need to take time to regroup. We need to reorganize. You know, we don't have internet. We don't have the sit-in where people used to meet. So people right now, it's all about we need to figure out what we want to do.

What's going on in Sudan right now, Reem? What's happened since we last spoke? Bashir was ousted on the 11th of April. Tanks rolling through the capital, cheered on by protesters, demanding that President Omar al-Bashir steps down. Since then, a body called the Transitional Military Council has been, it's not really the government, but it has been, you know, in power. And they don't want to hand over power to a civilian rule.

Since taking over, the military council has been in talks with political parties to form a transitional government. But many at the sit-in say the army isn't keen to hand over power to a civilian government, a key demand for them to end the protests and return home. The protesters were saying, the shire is gone, but we want a civilian government so this country can, you know, get back on its feet, basically.

The economy is in shambles. We still have conflict all over Sudan. We have so many serious issues that we need to deal with. People have, you know, were at the sit-in in front of the army headquarters for two months, basically. And the Freedom and Change Coalition, which is the body that was leading this protest movement, they have been in negotiations. So two months into the sit-in, you know, people are at the sit-in, they're happy, they're, you know, they are, you know, musicians are coming, you know, artists are coming and painting murals and graffiti all over the sit-in. People are there, they're organizing, they're protesting.

So then the massacre happens on June 3rd. The unmistakable sound of gunfire, panic and chaos penetrate the streets of the Sudanese capital as Sudan's military leaders disperse protesters from the months-old sit-in camp located outside the army headquarters. They killed more than 100 people, according to the Central Committee of Sudan Doctors, in the bloodiest day yet since the Sudanese uprising began in December last year. At least 40 bodies were dredged up from the Nile River in the aftermath of the carnage. The TMC, you know, and especially led by the rapid support forces, they attacked the sit-in and they attacked people, shooting live ammunition, you know, using sexual violence, burning tents and just basically committing horrific acts to dismantle the sit-in. So since then, people are finding other tools to mobilize and organize, especially that we don't have Internet. We don't have, you know, the same freedoms that we had during the last two months.

Who exactly is in charge of the country right now? The TMC, the Transitional Military Council. Right now, the TMC is made up of the army, the Sudan Armed Forces, so members of the army, and the RSF, the Rapid Support Forces, which are a rebranded form of the Janjaweed that used to attack, basically, that attacked Darfur. The Janjaweed, which translates as devils on horseback, were militias drawn from the nomadic Arab tribes in the region. The Khartoum government armed the Janjaweed, provided them air support, and unleashed them on the rebels and black civilian farmers in Darfur. The leader or the president of this committee, the Transitional Military Council,

is Burhan, who is an army official, Abdul Fattah al-Burhan. And his deputy is known as Hemeti, who is the leader of the RSF. But basically, Hemeti is in charge. What do we know about him? What's his background? Brutal. Early on, he joined the Janjaweed and became one of the leaders. So basically in 2013, or a little before that, he started the Rapid Support Forces, which are forces that were basically formed and resourced by the former president

so they can fight the insurgencies in different places around Sudan. So this guy is basically, I mean, he was a camel trader. At some point he had a furniture shop, you know. He's from this, you know, small minority clan in Darfur. So he was raised in pretty much in Niyala or in the South Darfur region. And he is a businessman. He has a lot of money. He has a number of gold mines, I would say. Okay, so he's been around for a while, which means he has ties to former President Omar al-Bashir, who just appeared in the public eye yesterday for the first time

since he was ousted in April. What's going on with Bashir? Yes. So Bashir right now, he is being charged for, you know, it's basically corruption charges, you know, money. It's just related to money and the resources he has, which for me is like he was very corrupt, but also he has killed hundreds of thousands or he has orchestrated the killings in so many places around Sudan. So I see it as a sham trial, as just kind of a symbolic trial, you know.

I mean, I do have, yes, some sources did tell me that he is in prison. But, you know, obviously he came to, you know, he did not come in the prison car. He came in a nice, you know, four by four. And, you know, he looks like he's enjoying his time in prison. How does it look like he's enjoying his time in prison? I mean, he's wearing this, you know, really nice, you know, jalebiya and like the Sudanese turban, you know, very like clean. And I mean, this is not how, you know, the people I know who were basically in fabricated trials.

This is how not this is not how they come to court. They come basically in shackles and they look like they have not had access to a shower in a very long time. So I think this is just not how you look like when you go to a prison in Sudan, where basically they don't even give you food and your family has to bring food.

And I'm sure to people who've been following his rule for 30 years or even just these protests this year, it's kind of looking like he got off easy, that he's being charged on corruption and not war crimes. Why corruption? There are a number of scenarios, OK? Part of it is like we're still collecting evidence, OK, against this. And this is what they're saying.

And also because the judiciary system has been like unstable. But also, I think they wanted to charge him with something quickly just to tell people that, you know, we're doing something, we're doing our job, this man is facing justice. But still for us, I mean, the fact that he's first charged with like, you know, corruption charges is, is just not a very good sign. Is there a chance that he's not being prosecuted for more serious crimes because that could put the military in a position to also be on trial one day? Absolutely. Because, I mean, Burhan should be prosecuted. I mean, he's very much part of the Darfur conflict.

Ahmeti definitely needs to be prosecuted. So I think also the whole definitely needs to be prosecuted. So I think also the whole system needs to be held accountable. And right now they're protecting themselves. And we do understand that justice takes time. It's a long process, especially in a country where you need the institutions to do so.

But they're all covering their backs right now. So they know that if this starts, it will never stop. Reem, I wonder, what's the sense you get from talking to people there? What are they most prioritizing right now? Is it that Bashir is formally prosecuted for his war crimes? Is it that the military stepped down? Is it that there's popular rule?

What do people want right now? People right now feel that the traditional military council does not want to hand over power to a civilian government and they want a government to be formed. You know, I mean, we need a government. We need this country to move forward, you know, because right now, I mean, no cash in the bank. People are still, you know, like basic goods are still very expensive or unavailable. So I think people are really struggling right now. And they also feel that many lives have been lost over the past few months. People have been on the streets for six months, you know, putting their lives at risk,

facing gunfire on an almost daily basis. So they want to see the fruits of what they have fought for. They feel that the fight is not over, but they want at least a positive step. So what's standing in the way of that civilian rule? The military does not want to hand over power because the military has always been in power, like in Sudan. And they have a lot of resources and they have an infrastructure that they don't want to lose. And also because many of them will be held accountable for the crimes that have been committed in Sudan in the past, you know, few decades. So they also don't want to be held accountable. And also because they know that,

I mean, at the end of the day, the plan is to have a transitional, you know, government for three to four years, but then to have elections and have a democracy. In their interest, they don't want to see a democratic civilian rule in Sudan. What about other countries? How are they weighing in on this? African countries are, they have been in a way united, you know, behind the African Union. And the African Union wants to see a civilian government. You have the other alliance, the Egypt- Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates alliance, they have interests, you know, and they have been in a way playing, I would say, a negative role.

Saudi Arabia and the Emirates, they want to sustain this military presence, okay? Because right now, most of the ground troops in Yemen are the, you know, troops from Sudan and specifically from the RSF. So they like Hamidi, he's their guy, because they feel that he's supplying them with troops that are fighting this senseless war in Yemen. But right now, I feel that people are aware of this and they are communicating with the different sides and they are very adamant that we want this process to be Sudan-led and we want this process to really take into consideration our interests.

So people are remaining hopeful? Definitely, absolutely. Because losing hope, it means, I mean, this is what a lot of people are saying, it's basically treason to the victims who have fallen, to the martyrs we have lost along the way. It's a very emotional time, you know, especially when, you know, I mean, the streets are still, like we say, the streets are still stained with blood from the massacre that took place on June 3rd. We've all lost people. The only way to go is just onwards and upwards because we have been fighting for so long and we have so much to lose. One of the main slogans is like, move forward because behind, we're only going to face execution.

Get down, warrior, down. People actually thought this military rule could be a good thing for Sudan. People thought it could help. That's after the break. Some time ago, a colleague of ours here at Today Explained, Johnny Harris, who works with the video team, he got himself a quip, and it caused a lot of consternation in his video team. He got himself a quip, and it caused a lot of consternation in his family because everyone else immediately wanted a quip. His wife,

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getquip.com slash explained at that website You will also find the quip starts at just $25 and your first refill pack is free. May Hassan, you study authoritarianism and teach kids about it at the University of Michigan. This military takeover in Sudan has been very bad for anyone hoping for this popular uprising to be fully realized. Are military takeovers always terrible? As a political scientist, I think military takeovers are always bad in that it's not a democratic regime that's around. But I think there are situations in which military takeovers can be not horrible. Let me put it that way. We often think about something that's called a promissory coup. These tend to be when the military sees the situation in the country, sees that it's not really going in the best direction. Thailand's military has taken control of the country's government.

The head of the Thai army says the coup is necessary to restore order after six months of political turmoil. Maybe an elected leader even is taking on too much power. The Honduran military has ousted the democratically elected President Manuel Zelaya after he tried to carry out a non-binding referendum to extend his term in office. Maybe the existing dictator is not abiding by whatever social contract is in that autocracy. And so sometimes the military actually comes in, does a promissory or a reset coup. And the point is to take over power, reset the country, reset politics, and then hand over power. Algerians celebrate what looks like success after a wave of protests. For 20 years, the country has only seen one president.

That era is about to end. They'll often say this coup is intended to restart elections or to bring about an electoral transition. Was that the hope in Sudan, that this would be a military reset, one of these promissory coups? Answering that question is a bit tough because are you asking me as a Sudanese citizen? That's very hopeful and was very hopeful during that time. Or as a political scientist and someone who's supposed to kind of look at the situation a bit more rationally. Because I remember on April 11th, in my WhatsApp group with my family, we were sending around all of these messages, Bashir is down, Basha is gone.

Seeing that, I was really hopeful about what Sudan was going to do in the future. You know, I almost had faith in these military leaders, that they were recognizing the suffering that Sudan's been through these past 30 years, and especially since 2011, when the economy started really going sour. But at the same time, if someone has power and not really democratically elected, there aren't really strong checks and balances on them. You kind of have to you have to take a step back and wonder, are they really going to give up power? Was the two-year transition that the military proposed like an early red flag that this wasn't going to go very well? Because what did they need two years for? Bashir had like over 30, right?

So it was actually the opposite in that the military, the TMC, actually wanted a quicker transition. And the Sudanese Professionals Association and the other opposition groups, many of them instead were pushing for a longer transition. This is where experience from the rest of the Arab Spring countries comes into play, and especially thinking about Egypt, just north of Sudan. You know, Sudan and Egypt are going to always be linked. The Nile runs through both Sudan and Egypt. And so we say in Arabic, we drink the same water. And so Sudan always looks at Egypt and what's happening there. And there, with the transition period, in part because the military led the transition, and the transition there was really, really quick. The Sudanese Professionals Association and other opposition groups were

actually hoping for and pushing for a longer transition period just because we'd been under dictatorship for 30 years. Many civil society groups had collapsed. If we're thinking about how to build an opposition movement, actually how to build grassroots democracy, how to have real political parties, that's not something that can be built overnight. And what are the parallels between Egypt's Arab Spring Revolution and this one that's happening right now in Sudan? People in Sudan, the opposition, civil society, regular lay people definitely know how Egypt's revolution was thwarted and don't want that to happen in Sudan. And so I think that's one of the reasons why the opposition is so adamant that the transitional council is majority civilian and that the head of it is a civilian him or herself. Many people look to Egypt and look at Morsi's presidency. Mohamed Morsi, who actually died today while appearing in court,

was of course Egypt's first democratically elected president after the Arab Spring, but he only lasted like a year before the military ousted him in a coup? Yes. They think that it was hampered even before it started, that Morsi never really stood a chance at really being able to dismantle the military state, at being able to dismantle all of the institutions that Mubarak had put into place and give Egypt a real shot at democracy. And so many people want to put Sudan's hopefully future democratically elected leader in the best position to actually deal with corruption, to actually bring to justice all of these horrible people who have caused pain and suffering and death all across the country. Well, since things didn't go very well in Egypt, is there a country Sudan can look at

to emulate in this dire situation right now? In a sense, Sudan can just look at itself from a few decades ago. So Sudan has been plagued by military rule pretty much since its founding, except there have been a few rays of hope. And there have been some times when Sudan, when there were promissory coups, when there were some of these transitional coups that actually did lead to civilian rule for a few years. So Bashir was ousted on April 11th. And he was ousted after protests really ramped up on April 6th. And April 6th was a very important day. And it was a day that a lot of unions or the SPA, the opposition knew that they could get people out to protest

on because it was the 34th anniversary of when Sudan ousted their last dictator, this man named Numeri. And what happened when he was ousted? Numeri left, the military stepped in, and actually handed over power to civilian rule. There was this guy named Ad-Dehab. He's the one, he was a military leader who led the transition. He was president of Sudan for like maybe a year. And then he gave up power and there were actual elections and there was actual civilian democratic rule before Bashir came in and the military did their thing again. As someone who has studied this cycle in Sudan, do you feel like something here might be different that the, I don't know, military ousting Bashir and the people continuing to protest the military might break this sort of cycle in the country?

I think what might be different this time is Sudan's economic situation. Sudan's economy has been in free fall since pretty much 2011. And it just, I feel like every time I go back or every time I, you know, text with my cousins, it just seems to be getting worse and worse. And so people see the regime elites driving around in their really nice Land Cruisers. So you can just see the corruption everywhere and how it's so easy to blame the regime, given how much they have and how little the rest of the population does. I'm really hopeful that people are still going to continue protesting and continue backing the opposition until there's real change. Hopefully we'll see the rule of law return. May Hassan teaches comparative politics at the University of Michigan.

I'm Sean Ramos-Furirm. This is G-E-T-Q-U-I-P dot com slash explained. Their toothbrush starts at just $25. That's like one 3D movie, hopefully not Avengers Endgame. Don't at me. Your first set of refills comes for free with the brush.