Today, Explained - Battleship: Russia vs. Ukraine

Episode Date: November 27, 2018

Russia rammed one of its ships into a Ukrainian tug boat, further straining an already strung-out relationship. Vox’s Alex Ward takes us on a voyage to the Black Sea. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Support for today's show comes from Quip electric toothbrushes. The Quip starts at just $25 and your first refill packs are free. After that, they cost about $5 every three months. The Quip itself starts at $25 at getquip.com slash explained. Right now, getquip.com slash explained. Alex Ward, you're one of the hosts of The Worldly Podcast. Can you walk us through what exactly happened between Russia and Ukraine on Sunday morning? So it's a very scary situation. What could be a major escalation of tension between Russia and Ukraine is developing right now off the coast of Crimea. What we know is that three Ukrainian ships were traveling from Odessa, which is a city with a port on the Black Sea,

going through the Kerch Strait to go into the Sea of Azov towards Mariupol, which is a massive port for Ukraine and very important to its economy. Now, the Ukrainian Navy for years has said like, hey, you know, this is part of our waters. We have a 2003 treaty to go through. So no problem, right?

They've been doing this kind of stuff forever. Okay. For some reason this time, it looks like the Russians were quite unhappy with it. What happens is, as these three Ukrainian ships go through the strait, the Russians basically ram one of them. They ram the tugboat, and it looks like they started shooting on the Ukrainian ships as well. And then bought them with a raiding party consisting of Russian special forces. The Ukrainian military says at least six of its naval personnel were injured in that confrontation. So Russia's saying you guys shouldn't be here. Pretty much.

And saying that they were illegally within Russian waters. And what's even more kind of damning is that there's this massive new bridge that was opened this year, the Crimean Bridge. So there's really one opening that gets you into the Sea of Azov or, you know, Black Sea, depending where you're going. And a Russian freighter was put lengthwise along that one opening, blocking any access to it. Wow.

What happens next? So then the situation gets even crazier, right? You have Russia sending helicopters and warplanes into the region. You've got American warplanes kind of circling around. They're not close, but it's clearly kind of monitoring what's happening. And then you've got Ukraine starting to mobilize forces. It's unclear exactly what, but heading towards the region. So all of this happened on Sunday.

What have both sides of this said since? So it's a war of words, which I guess is better than an actual war. So the war of words is starting basically with the Ukrainian president who on Sunday, but also on Monday, was saying this was an act of aggression on Russia's part. Put forward what he called a martial law resolution, which basically allows Ukraine to mobilize its forces, naval, air, et cetera, much faster. And this would be in the eastern region where this is all happening. Russia denies any real involvement. Again, says that Ukraine was the aggressor.

Basically blaming Ukraine as kind of like they did this in order to put sanctions on Russia. This is a well-thought-out provocation. It's all staged, which is a usual kind of Russian frame that they're being blamed for something they didn't do. And just today, actually, Russia released this video of Ukrainian sailors confessing that they were the aggressors. These are Ukrainian soldiers who are in Russian captivity right now? Sailors, yeah, in captivity. Because, again, the Russians boarded these Ukrainian ships and have 23 or so sailors in captivity. So I would take that video with a bit of skepticism. You know, they could have been forced to say that.

Looking at the body language, it's kind of like, yeah, we were totally the aggressors. Sure. Like you can almost hear the eye roll. Yeah. Take that for what it is. But if you look at a video that it does exist, you can find it online. It is from one of the Russian ships that rammed into the Ukrainian tugboat. And there's Russian swear words and whatever.

I mean, almost the feeling is like, ram them! It does ram the ship. Like, you can hear the thud. It goes like, bah! It shows that, at least in that instance, the Russians were definitely acting pretty aggressively. And if I were a betting man, I would say the Russians were probably the aggressors here. Either way you cut it, you've got a David and Goliath situation here. You've got Russia going up against this tiny Ukrainian navy. What's the international community saying? NATO or the United Nations, United States? Well, the reaction is kind

of what you'd expect. So NATO says it's going to hold this meeting. It's going to, you know, cares about this very deeply. We're going to really back Ukraine, which is not a NATO member, right? Not a NATO member, but a lot of allies in NATO are Ukrainian friends. And so they're going to discuss this. It's going to be a very, very serious discussion, which will probably lead to a condemnation of some sort. But not really much that NATO itself can do. The UN held an emergency meeting on Monday morning where the Ukrainians blamed the Russians. The Russians denied any involvement.

U.S. Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley called it an outlaw action that Russia is responsible for this. Sunday's outrageous violation of sovereign Ukrainian territory is part of a pattern of Russian behavior that includes the purported annexation of Crimea and abuses against countless Ukrainians in Crimea, as well as stoking conflict that has taken the lives of more than 10,000 people in eastern Ukraine. What Haley did affirm was that there are sanctions already on Russia for its annexation of Crimea in 2014. Right. And so that those sanctions will remain in place.

There was some small chatter that maybe those sanctions would come off in the future. It looks like they're going to stay on. So if anything, Russia's aggressive actions have made it so sanctions stay on, which is a bit of a backfire. But there's always a but with the U.S. now. President Donald Trump was asked about this situation, and he definitely hashtagged both sides to it. We do not like what's happening either way. We don't like what's happening. Oh, there are good people on both sides. It was just kind of one of those moments where he wouldn't blame anybody, right? He wouldn't blame Russia, even though Haley had

already done so earlier in the day. Is there a chance that this wasn't just outright Russian aggression? Yeah, there is. Unquestionably. You know, it just doesn't seem like that would happen. I mean, for Ukraine to do this with this very small, weak Navy that it has would just have to be really stupid. And so logic kind of says that, you know, both the history of that waterway, what Russia's been doing lately, and Ukraine's weakness, it just doesn't really make sense that Ukraine would have been the aggressor here. Is there any particular reason this has escalated like this right now? Like, why is this happening right now?

So the experts I've talked to would point to three main reasons. The first is in October, the Ukrainian Orthodox Church decided basically to split from the Russian Orthodox Church. Russia has used the Orthodox Church for centuries, really, as a propaganda tool to control, in some aspects, people under its control in the old Soviet space, even, you know, until today, in the the Russian space and in many areas in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, et cetera. OK. For that church to split, it shows that Russia's control over Ukraine is kind of slipping at least in that sense. And so what is celestial in this case actually matters for geopolitics.

OK. Reason number two is in March of 2019, Ukraine will actually hold presidential elections. Putin is not a fan of current Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, mainly because Poroshenko actually likes the West. by kind of ramming his ships and possibly keeping Ukrainian ships out of the Sea of Azov, where about 80% of Ukraine's exports go through, would definitely hurt the Ukrainian economy, which is struggling to recover during the war that it's still fighting. Making Poroshenko look bad and hurting Ukraine's economy could basically doom Poroshenko, at least. That's one theory. Okay.

The third reason is that Putin is definitely losing some popularity in Russia. So don't get me wrong. He is still, based on poll numbers alone, fairly popular. He's around 67-ish percent. But in April, he was in the 80s. And one of the reasons he's losing popularity is because despite the fact that he's promised a great revolution in Russia's economy, you know, everyone's going to benefit. We're going to be a great world power. That hasn't happened. And every time polls slip, Putin seems to find a way to do something

pretty massive to get people on his side. Like his poll numbers were slipping in 2014. He sees his Crimea, They skyrocket. Maybe he goes, you know, keeping the Ukrainians out of an important seat, showing that I have more control over Ukraine than people think I do might help me get my poll numbers back up. It's unclear if all three reasons are responsible, if one of those is responsible. But experts I've talked to point to those three as, you know, why Russia would really be doing this now. I mean, all of these elements, you know, escalating an existing conflict, ramming ships, elections, approval ratings, it sounds like you've got all the elements of like the beginnings of an all out war. Is there a chance that this escalates into an international conflict that other players get involved in? Yes, but it's so small that I wouldn't worry about it.

We don't have to add this to our list of things to worry about. No, I think there are apocalyptic headlines about this, that World War III is imminent. And look, it could spiral. I'm not going to lie to you. That's a possibility. But it's very small that I wouldn't worry here. Russia and Ukraine do not want a war here. No one really wants a war here.

What it does look like, though, is the opening of a big new front in the Russia-Ukraine fight. Coming up, the Russia-Ukraine fight. This is Today Explained. Hello? Hey there, Tim from New York. This is Sean from Today Explained again. Wanted to know if you're still interested in finding yourself a Quip electric toothbrush this holiday season. You know what? I am.

Well, rumor has it if you wish upon a Quip hard enough that it'll just, you know, one will just show up at your doorstep. You use the dentist-branded toothbrush because, what, you go to the dentist a lot or what? No, well, I got insurance this year, so I went to the dentist the first time in five years. And so our goal of this year is to have general better oral health. Okay. You know, flossing and crap like that. Trying to stay on top of it. Okay, great.

And you think the Quip could help you to that end? I think it might. I hear good things about it. Well, just a reminder, I'm not sure if you've heard, but the Quip starts at $25 and your first set of refills is free. And after that, they're five bucks every three months for refills. And you can get it all at getquip.com slash explained until yours just shows up at your doorstep, maybe. What a great explanation of a thing, Sean.

Thank you, Tim. This is why I like this podcast. To understand what's going on with Russia and Ukraine right now, you got to understand what happened with Crimea in 2014. And to understand what happened with Crimea in 2014, you got to know that Russia is basically the world's biggest jilted ex-boyfriend in all of this. Russia never wanted to break up with Ukraine. Yeah, I think the most important reference point is the breakup of the Soviet Union and the fact that Russia, post-Soviet Russia, has never really come to terms with independent Ukraine as an

independent state separate from Russia. Gwendolyn Zasa is the director of the Center for East European and International Studies in Berlin. She says the breakup was bad enough, but then Ukraine started flirting with the EU and NATO. Russia wanted revenge, so it went straight for the Crimean Peninsula. Crimea plays a very important role in Russia's self-definition of its identity, its imperial identity, its identity as a state, as a nation. But none of that justifies in international legal terms what Russia did in 2014. Russia just dropped in and stole Crimea. Pressure from Russia is growing.

Large groups of pro-Russia troops surrounding Ukrainian bases, ordering their forces off of them so they can occupy them. The international warning to Russia to end its invasion is being ignored. And it's caught the West by surprise and Ukraine, but also I would say the Crimeans themselves. Crimea was politically well integrated into the Ukrainian state. And there was absolutely no mobilization in Crimea for unification with Russia. What exactly did Russia do in 2014? Could you remind us how they went about the annexation of Crimea? It was through an increase in the military presence. We have to keep in mind that Russia was already present in the

region because of the Black Sea fleet, but then also directly from Moscow. Moscow installed a new so-called local political regime and it staged a referendum, a local referendum. Defying international protests, calling the process illegitimate, Crimea today went ahead with a referendum and voted overwhelmingly to join Russia. The vote came almost exactly two weeks after thousands of Russian troops occupied the region, which has been part of Ukraine for 60 years, but is also home to the Russian Black Sea Fleet. That all happened at high speed. So by March, the middle of March, Crimea was officially integrated into the Russian Federation.

This created a fait accompli for the international community. And did Vladimir Putin face any real consequences for doing this? He did to some extent. It hasn't changed anything on the ground. Of course, Crimea being part of Russia has not been recognized internationally. The US, the EU, and also Ukraine have imposed sanctions on Russia. This morning, I signed an executive order that authorizes sanctions on individuals and entities responsible for violating the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine or for stealing the assets of the Ukrainian people. According to my guidance, the State Department has also put in place restrictions on the travel of certain individuals and officials. That was the only way in which

Western countries, organizations, institutions could react to this. How did Russia react? How did Russians react to the annexation of Crimea? There was a massive, and it's still going on, a massive propaganda machine kicked in presenting this as a long sought after success. And a lot of people have either personal fond memories of holidaying in Crimea or they know the Russian literature in which Crimea plays an important role. And so this really tapped into an emotional side of Russian consciousness and this boosted Putin's popularity significantly. And also Russia had always, also by Russians, been seen as a weaker international actor. So that also

changed with this event. Putin's popularity has recently decreased significantly over a domestic issue. The pension reform that he proposed and that will increase the pension age significantly has proven extremely unpopular. And it looks as if the regime has not really expected such a reaction. There have been protests all over the country against that. So he's once again trying to improve his approval ratings through action abroad or in its territory. Putin's popularity in Russia is flagging because of pension reform. So he's escalating a war. Yes. And also, maybe it's more generally also testing international reactions to

an incident that is serious, but as Russia probably thinks, still controllable. So I don't think Russia ultimately has an interest in escalating the situation too much. Russia does not need a full-out war with Ukraine or full confrontation with the West. It is continuously provoking. And this has gone even one step further and once again, one step further than what seemed possible to many in the West. I feel like there's this sense that Vladimir Putin can just do whatever he wants. He can interfere with the United States elections. He can kill people in England. He can annex Crimea. What's going to stop him right now? I think we see some of these actions on Russia's part because the space for Putin to maneuver is

ultimately limited. So yes, these are extreme actions, and I'm not ruling out that there could be more in the next few years. But ultimately, it is mostly about signaling that Russia can act independently from the West. But when military incidents are involved, I think we're always in somewhat uncharted waters because things can go wrong. But ultimately, Russia cannot really afford to escalate this too much, and neither can Ukraine. Militarily, Ukraine would never win a war against Russia, and it knows that very well. Ukraine also knows that Western military support is not forthcoming, at least not on the scale that a war could be fought with Russia. So the interest on both sides ultimately is in de-escalation.

Gwendolyn Zasa teaches international relations at the University of Oxford. I'm Sean Ramos from This Is Today Explained. The Quip Electric Toothbrush has all sorts of features that you can sort of show off to your friends. It comes in this pod. It takes batteries so you don't have to plug it in. It has these little vibrations that tell you when to switch quadrants. You can find out all about it at getquip.com. It also is really quiet.

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