Today, Explained - Biden vs. Putin (feat. Navalny)

Episode Date: April 27, 2021

President Biden is cranking the pressure on President Putin, but it was Russian dissident Alexei Navalny who scored a victory by refusing his prison food. Transcript at vox.com/todayexplained. Support Today, Explained by making a financial contribution to Vox! bit.ly/givepodcasts Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Alexei Navalny is Russia's most effective opposition politician, head and shoulders above the rest. And he's probably politically, in terms of an opposition figure, Putin's biggest challenge. What has made him so popular is that he has made extremely smart use of social media. So instead of writing kind of lengthy, long-winded reports, he produces these really cool, slick YouTube videos with amazing graphics, like they would not look out of place on primetime TV in the US. And they're really fun, they're really cool, they're kind of tongue-in-cheek, a little bit sarcastic, and all the while just tearing shred after shred off of senior Russian officials for their wild corruption. We enter the palace from the main entrance.

Vladimir Putin fancies himself a Russian emperor and behaves accordingly. An Italian architect built his palace in the Italian style. So when he was initially poisoned last year, everyone was like, this can't have been the Kremlin, that would be so stupid. They were really shooting themselves in the foot. And lo and behold, we learned that the Russian security services actually were behind this. Now the German government says tests carried out in a military laboratory have produced unequivocal proof the Russian opposition leader was poisoned with the nerve agent Novichok.

And Chancellor Merkel says it was attempted murder. Alexei Navalny is the victim of a crime. He was meant to be silenced, and I condemn this in the sharpest possible manner in the name of the entire German government. Shortly after he was poisoned with Novichok, this potentially lethal Soviet nerve agent, he was flown to Berlin where he recovered in hospital there and stayed there for a few months. And then in January, once he was back in full health, he flew back to Russia with the full knowledge that he was likely going to be arrested when he landed. A kiss goodbye, then he's taken.

Alexei Navalny is arrested at passport control just minutes after expressing hope he might go free. I'm not afraid. I'll calmly go through border control. I'll cross the border and go home. I know I'm right. All legal actions against me are fake. So to understand why he was arrested, you have to go back to 2014. So Navalny has been a real thorn in the side of the Kremlin for over a decade now. And in 2014, he and his brother Oleg were convicted for defrauding the Russian subsidiary of a French cosmetics company. His brother was sentenced to three and a half years in prison, which he served, and Navalny was given a suspended sentence. And this was seen at the time as a warning shot and

as an effort to kind of encourage him to step back from his anti-corruption activities. And one of the terms of a suspended sentence was that he had parole terms. So he had to show up and check in with the police every so often, I think it was like every two weeks. And their argument was that when he was in Berlin, where he was flown while he was in a coma at death's door, that he violated the terms of his probation because he wasn't checking in with the authorities. And therefore, he now has to serve a portion of that sentence now in prison. So he was arrested in January when he arrived back in Moscow and sent to a penal colony about a couple of hours east of Moscow. How is his arrest

received in the Russian public? We begin in Russia, where over 3,000 people have been arrested during a second week of nationwide protests in support of opposition figure Alexei Navalny. The greatest number of detentions so far have been reported in the capital Moscow, where many demonstrators gathered near the prison where Navalny is being held. So there's two weekends of mass street protests and a huge crackdown in response. There was over 11,000 arrests. And in tandem with this kind of outrage that you're seeing amongst the Russian public, you're also seeing an increasingly brutal crackdown on protesters.

But Navalny doesn't let any of this silence him. I think Navalny has shown that short of death, which they have tried, nothing will silence him. And he's still managing from prison to shape the narrative. He said, you know, as a prisoner, you have no tools, you have no leverage, but the one tool of leverage you have is to go on hunger strike, which is what he did just over three weeks ago. About five hours ago, a Facebook post written in Navalny's own words discusses his increasing back pain, causing numbness in his right leg. Navalny jokes that he would hate to lose it, but writes gravely that he now understands

if you get seriously ill in a Russian prison camp, you will die. He suffered from really debilitating back pain. And while he was in prison, he said that he was being denied medical care. He was given like two kind of over-the-counter CVS-style painkillers to treat back pain that was affecting his ability to walk. So he announced on social media a few weeks ago in a message relayed via his lawyers that he was going on hunger strike, demanding access to independent and proper medical care for his treatment.

And I think what was particularly scary about the hunger strike is we don't know how that's going to interact with the lasting effects of the Novichok, whether that would have left any kind of lingering effects on his system, which could lead him to go downhill very fast. Two weekends ago, we had a warning from his lawyers that the results from medical tests showed that his kidneys were deteriorating rapidly. He had an extremely high level of potassium in his blood. And they warned that, you know, he was at immediate risk of cardiac arrest and that he could die any day was the phrase they used. And so that was the warning

which really set the international community on edge. This is really a desperate situation for Alexei Navalny and those people who are calling for justice in this situation. And given what you know about what motivates Putin, what is the possibility that things do get worse? calling for justice in this situation. And given what you know about what motivates Putin, what is the possibility that things do get worse? I think that it's almost a certainty that they get worse. Navalny and his hunger strike, I think, has been a tricky one for Western governments

because they clearly don't want to see him die. But how do you change the actions and behaviors of Putin regime? The one thing that Western governments could potentially do would be to levy sanctions. I spoke to sanctions experts about this. And if you sanction them before Navalny dies, well, then you remove any incentive to keep him alive because the Russians are just going to say, well, we've already been sanctioned. We may as well just let him die. It has pushed Western governments into this really tricky position. So Navalny's team, who are the kind of ones that orchestrate protests and call for street protests, which people are very responsive to, had been kind of keeping their powder dry, basically,

and not calling for too many protests, aware that, you know, the police were cracking down so brutally and they did not, they A, did not want to see another 10,000 plus people arrested, but also aware that like for Russians, this calculus between wanting to go to protests and wanting to support Navalny and wanting to support the things that Navalny stands for in terms of freedom of speech and anti-corruption, they're weighing that on the one hand with the possibility of like really devastating state violence, both in terms of arrest, lengthy sentences, and the possibility to really ruin people's lives, at least in the kind of short to midterm, just for showing up at a protest, just for being in your town square and saying,

free Navalny or something like that. So we're not talking about violent protests. It's just freely being there. You put your liberty on the line. And I think Navalny's team have shown that they are acutely aware of that. And so trying to only call for protests at really potentially pivotal moments. And so that pivotal moment came last Wednesday on the day of Putin's annual State of the Union speech. Thank you very much. Thank you very much. They said, now is the time, street protests, let's go. And again you saw mass street protests across Russia.

And unlike January, they more or less let the protests go ahead. The police in St. Petersburg don't seem to have gotten that message. There was a very brutal crackdown in St. Petersburg, but across the rest of the country, they kind of let them go. So Wednesday was a massive day. But what was interesting was that Navalny was actually seen by civilian doctors the day before on Tuesday. So on Tuesday, he was seen by doctors, which was the demand of his hunger strike. Wednesday, there was mass street protests and Putin's big speech. It wasn't until Thursday that Navalny's doctors said that they had seen him, they had given him assessment and called for him to end his hunger strike.

And then it was the next day that he actually ended his hunger strike. His lawyers say he finally got medical attention from independent doctors, but he's still demanding to see his personal physician to examine numbness in his legs and arms. Another reason he ended the strike, some of his supporters were refusing to eat at all as a show of solidarity. So what did we learn along the way about Putin's power and Navalny's? I've been awed at every step of this, and Navalny is just immense courage. For years, you know, his brother was arrested. That didn't deter him. We learned late last year that they may have poisoned his wife. That did not deter him. We learned late last year that they may have poisoned his wife. That did not deter him. He has been physically attacked. He's been imprisoned.

His family has been targeted. His organization is now being targeted. He came very close to dying. He returned to Russia knowing that he was absolutely, definitely going to go to prison. He ends up in prison. He has basically one tool left to try and keep the pressure on the regime, and that's a hunger strike. And a hunger strike having recently been poisoned with Novichok, so not knowing how that would go, and he still did it. There are very few characters, I think, in history that have that degree of strength. And so what we are witnessing right now is a historic moment. This is, you know, whatever happens to Navalny, I think this is the kind of thing that, you know, for all his faults, he will go down in history as one of the great freedom fighters of the 20th and 21st century.

And as inspiring as Navalny is, and as awful as this episode has been, I think it has also demonstrated that the Kremlin still has this massive capacity to crack down on society. And I think, you know, whilst Navalny has been the focus of the past few weeks, there has been a whole bunch of other activity going on in Russia in terms of freedom of speech, which is just going to have this real chilling effect across the board. And Navalny's movement too has been targeted.

So Navalny is not just Navalny. He has this whole network, this anti-corruption foundation, and that is now at risk of being labeled an extremist organization. And so anybody who works for them, anybody who is affiliated with them can be sentenced for up to 10 years imprisonment just for being involved with this anti-corruption network and that is huge so whilst Navalny is the is the figurehead of this current moment what is going on kind of in the wings and behind the scenes which is getting less

international attention is this really broad brush campaign to to really squeeze out these last few remaining areas of freedom of speech in Russia. And that, I think, is also going to be the terrible legacy of this moment that we're in, and that Russia is just heading down this more and more authoritarian path. And I don't see how the authorities turn back from this moment. Amy McKinnon is a national security and intelligence reporter with Foreign Policy magazine. You can find her work at foreignpolicy.com.

In a minute, what's a Biden to do? I'm Sean Ramos for him. It's Today Explained. Thank you. up with family and Aura says it's never been easier thanks to their digital picture frames. They were named the number one digital photo frame by Wirecutter. Aura frames make it easy to share unlimited photos and videos directly from your phone to the frame. When you give an Aura frame as a gift, you can personalize it, you can preload it with a thoughtful message, maybe your favorite photos. Our colleague Andrew tried an Aura frame for himself. So setup was super simple. In my case, we were celebrating

my grandmother's birthday and she's very fortunate. She's got 10 grandkids. And so we wanted to surprise her with the AuraFrame. And because she's a little bit older, it was just easier for us to source all the images together and have them uploaded to the frame itself. And because we're all connected over text message, it was just so easy to send a link to everybody. You can save on the perfect gift by visiting AuraFrames.com to get $35 off Aura's best-selling Carvermat frames with promo code EXPLAINED at checkout. That's A-U-R-A-Frames.com, promo code EXPLAINED. This deal is exclusive to listeners and available just in time for the holidays. Terms and conditions do apply. Alex Ward, you cover the White House for Vox. Remind us where the former president left things off with Russia. The former president,

whose name is Donald Trump, Sean, he had a two-part strategy with Russia. He wanted very personal friendship ties with Vladimir Putin. I like him because he called me a genius. While at the same time, his administration was extremely tough on Russia. And so it actually led to pretty bad relations. But also, we should say, that had to do with Russia's own actions. They tried to kill double agents in the UK. The Skripals were found slumped near their home in Salisbury. The case has caused a massive diplomatic rift with Russia. They've been

interfering in American elections. A bipartisan report from the Senate Intelligence Committee details how Russia targeted voting systems in all 50 states. They still continue to war in Ukraine. Pressure from Russia is growing. Large groups of pro-Russia troops surrounding Ukrainian bases, ordering their forces off of them so they can occupy them. And on top of that, they try to kill a guy named Alexei Navalny

and continue to persecute him throughout. So this has always been an ongoing thing where even Trump felt like, hey, we should have nice ties with Russia. The government of the United States, because of Russia's actions, was like, we should actually be very tough. And so relations between the two countries tanked. So how does Joe Biden pick things up as soon as he gets into office? He actually somewhat doubles down on the Trump strategy of being tough on Russia.

However, with the change of not wanting a nice personal relationship with Putin, he wants it to be a workmanlike relationship where they can, you know, talk and solve problems. But there's not going to be any rapprochement or reset with the U.S. and Russia at this point.

I find that we can both operate in the mutual self-interest of our countries as a new start agreement and make it clear to Russia that we are we are very concerned about their behavior, whether it's Navalny, whether it's the solar winds or whether it's reports of bounties. And how do things ramp up from there over the course of the next few months? Well, the Biden administration, as it's wont to do, did a policy review about how to deal with Russia, right? They came in, they wanted to get a sense of what the Trump administration

was doing, what the intelligence was, and then run an interagency process, meaning getting the White House, the State Department, the intelligence services, the Pentagon all together and deciding, okay, what's actually going on here and what's the best way to respond? And they were trying to figure out the right response to Russia because of the SolarWinds hack, which it perpetrated. Investigators believe Russia is behind the massive hack that hit several federal agencies, among them the Treasury, Commerce, and Justice Departments. Election interference and all that. And then very recently, this month, you had the U.S. finally, you know, pull the trigger in effect, but using sanctions on Russians, key Russian entities,

personnel, people close to Putin, and expelling 10 Russian diplomats from the United States. Today, I've approved several steps, including expulsion of several Russian officials as a consequence of their actions. I've also signed an executive order authorizing new measures, including sanctions to address specific harmful actions that Russia has taken against U.S. interest. Basically, a pretty strong sanctions package and a pretty strong response to the point that experts I spoke to said that it was really the strongest American punishment of Russia since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014. How big a deal is this? Is this like expelling the ambassador to the

United States or is this like getting rid of some guys who hang out at like Russia House and DuPont Circle? It's not the ambassador. It is 10 diplomats. However, the expectation is that these are very likely Russians who double as spies. It's a very common practice. The United States does this as well, is they send intelligence people around the world to embassies where they actually do the job of the embassy, like, you know, second secretary for consular affairs or first chief for economic issues. And U.S. officials tell us they believe they were doing Vladimir Putin's bidding to track and possibly harm Russian defectors in the U.S. We don't know that for sure. We probably will never know. But that is at least the move that we made. So this happens like roughly 10 days ago.

How does Putin respond? Unhappily, he responds in kind by kicking out 10 American diplomats from Moscow. The Kremlin is reacting to a U.S. government decision to blacklist Russian companies, expel Russian diplomats, and bar U.S. banks from buying sovereign bonds from the central bank in Moscow. And he also bars some, you know, and bar U.S. banks from buying sovereign bonds from the central bank in Moscow.

And he also bars some, you know, effectively blacklists, some pretty high-level Americans from going to Russia. Some of them include former National Security Advisor John Bolton. They include current Domestic Policy Advisor Susan Rice, Attorney General Merrick Garland. That guy can't catch a break. Wow. So it's not a tit for tat, right?

Because Russian sanctions on the United States wouldn't really do much. There's just not much economic leverage it has over the American market. But it is a strong sign to basically show that, hey, relations are spiraling downwards here. Really not looking too good. But all the while, there is still this offer to, like, get together and figure stuff out on the table. Yeah, Biden has invited Putin to a summit this summer, and they're still working out the details. I propose that we meet in person this summer in Europe for a summit to address a range of issues facing both of our countries. Our teams are discussing that possibility right now.

And out of that summit, where it's occurring, I believe it will, the United States and Russia could launch a strategic stability dialogue to pursue cooperation and arms control and security. Putin might show, he might not. Last week, you had Putin show up to the climate summit that Biden organized, right, of 40 nations. Mr. President, colleagues, ladies, gentlemen, our discussion today demonstrates how deeply we all share the concern with regard to global climate change. In the meantime, we have what is a much more adversarial relationship between these two guys than we saw over the course of the past four years. Are there any early signs that taking this approach will actually accomplish anything? And if so, what will it accomplish? Depends who you ask. It's important for the U.S. to push back on Russia with these kinds of

punishments to basically make Putin think, oh, okay, I've gone too far. I've now got to walk back a lot of this behavior. That's how some people think about it. Others think that constant pushback is going to lead to an always spiraling downward movement, that the relationship cannot recover unless one side basically gives to the other. This is somewhat of the Obama administration idea of the reset, right? When then Secretary of State Hillary Clinton famously gave a button to the Russian foreign minister that was supposed to say reset. It did not. We worked hard to get the right Russian word. Do you think we got it? You get the throne. What did the button actually say?

Overcharged is what it said. What? I got it wrong. Yeah, it was a mistranslation. And that, of course, became a symbol for how the Obama reset failed, right? Like they couldn't even get the button wording right, let alone the relationship. But still, that remains a pretty big argument among a certain level of experts who believe, again, that, you know, unless Washington and Moscow take steps to better relations now before relations get worse, then it's always going to continue spiraling downward. I mean, you brought up the Obama administration. How much of this moment feels like a throwback to when President Biden was the vice president, when, you know, Obama was trying to increase pressure on Russia over its annexing of Crimea? It's similar, but I think we have to remember that Putin has basically been emboldened since that moment, right? He didn't really face large pushback from the Obama administration for taking over

Crimea and then intervening in the eastern part of the country. For many experts, they say Putin didn't really feel like America cared, that Europe wasn't too strong in pushback despite all the condemnations. And so really since 2014, you've had Putin become more aggressive in stuff we've been saying, the election interference, the hacking, and even recently putting 100,000 troops right off the Ukrainian border that people didn't know what it was for, but it was quite the show of strength. So Putin's throwing 100,000 troops at the Ukraine border. Biden and Putin are both chipping at each other with expelling diplomats on both sides, with hacking here and there. How is this going to play out?

I mean, it feels a bit like that Rocky movie, right? They're toe-to-toe. The Russian towers above the American. It's a true case of David and Goliath here. I must break you. And I should say that Putin recently signed quote-unquote legislation that allows him effectively to be president for life if he wants to be, which means that Biden's not going to be the only guy dealing with Putin.

It's probably going to be the next president, the one after that, and maybe even the one after that. So it's currently Biden's charge to set the tone for U.S.-Russian relations not only now, but well into America's future. And so whether it goes up, whether it goes down, that depends completely on what Joe Biden wants to do and whether the plan that he's currently enacting works. Alex Ward is one-third of our worldly podcast here at Vox. You can find, follow, subscribe to it truly just about anywhere in the world. Today's show was produced by Victoria Chamberlain.

It's the first one she's ever made for us, so her mom better love it. We had translations from Efim the Dream Shapiro, who also made sure the show sounded like butter on a biscuit. Facts checked by Laura Bullard. Music by the mysterious Breakmaster Cylinder. And some edits from Amina Alsadi, who's also our supervising producer. The rest of the Today Explained team includes Halima Shah, Miles Bryan, Will Reed, Muj Zaydi, and Emily Sen, who joined us this week. Welcome, Emily. Liz Kelly

Nelson is Vox's VIP of audio. Jillian Weinberger is the deputy. Today Explained is part of the Vox Media Podcast Network. You can reach us anytime with an email. The address is todayexpl at Vox.com. And by the way, we turned 800 yesterday. Our Monday episode on COVID in India was our 800th and we were so busy making it that we forgot to notice the occasion. Celebrate the show by, I don't know,

telling a friend about it. Or heck, tell an enemy. Thanks. Thank you.