Today, Explained - Brexiting is hard to do

Episode Date: July 11, 2018

British Prime Minister Theresa May is losing cabinet members left and right. She can’t figure out how to Brexit. BBC's Rob Watson says the UK's breakup with the European Union is turning into its biggest political crisis since the Second World War. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hello? Hey, Bree. Hey, Sean. You sound wide awake today. I am. I just had oatmeal. Could you believe that? Is that what cures mono? Sadly, no. But you know what? It does help soothe thine throat. You know what else might soothe some people out there?

Ooh, what? Knowing that Uber is adding a bunch of new features that are designed to take the stress out of your pickup. Ooh, that's what I need right now. You can find out more by going to uber.com slash moving forward. Sounds great. It's an exciting time in the United Kingdom. Wimbledon, the World Cup, Meghan and Harry. Oh, and the government is on the verge of collapse. I think it would not be an exaggeration to say that Britain is facing its most profound political crisis since the end of the Second World War.

To understand what's tearing the United Kingdom's government apart right now, you have to understand the difference between two things. A soft Brexit. A soft Brexit is essentially where Britain stays as close to the European Union in terms of economic and trade arrangements as it possibly can. And a hard Brexit. A hard Brexit is where Britain basically cuts all of its political ties with the European Union and tries to have as close a trading relationship as possible,

but not at the cost of as much sovereignty as possible. There's a fight going on between the two, and it's tearing Prime Minister Theresa May's government apart. Now, everyone might think, well, hang on a minute, they voted to leave, isn't that it? Done and dusted. Absolutely not. Rob Watson covers UK politics for the BBC.

There's one wing of the governing Conservative Party which would like to have as distant a relationship with the European Union as humanly possible. And another wing of the Conservative Party which thinks that, no, that's just economic suicide given that the EU is Britain's biggest trading partner. We have to stay as close as possible. And the reason why

we've got to this point now where it's exploded is that essentially since the referendum, Theresa May was trying not to have to choose between one wing of her party. I mean, you could see why she didn't want an almighty row. But last week, she sort of took sides more on the wing of those who think that we should stay close to the European Union. And basically, you can guess what's happened that's made that wing of the party, which wants a more distant relationship, very, very angry indeed. And you have to understand, this is visceral. I mean, it's not sort of, you know, minor politics. People feel very, very strongly about this European issue. What forced her hand? What caused her to choose a side?

Three things forced it. So number one was the ticking clock. Mr. Speaker, we are going to leave the European Union in March 2019. The second thing that forced her hand is business. I mean, if you were here in the UK, you would know, you would see, sometimes publicly, sometimes privately, businesses are trooping into number 10 Downing Street and saying, hey, Prime Minister, if you trooping into number 10 Downing Street and saying, hey, Prime Minister, if you don't do something pretty quick, if you don't make some sensible decisions, we're going to be taking our money and our investment out of the UK. And the third thing

that tipped her hand is this business of Northern Ireland, where it's thought that if you didn't stay close to the European Union, there might have to be a border between Northern Ireland, which would be staying in the UK, but out of the EU, and the Irish Republic, which is staying in the European Union. People remember what the border used to look like. There used to be a customs office just off the road here to my right, and an army checkpoint just up the highway. And the reason why all of that matters is that people probably haven't forgotten all those years and years of violence. The idea of there being a border that could then be the target for paramilitaries, Theresa May feels it's not possible.

We have been clear all along that we don't want to go back to a hard border in Ireland. We have ruled out any physical infrastructure at the border or any related checks and controls. So it was those three things that forced her hand. The ticking clock, business, pressure from business. And I think for her, the sort of moral imperative that it would be wrong to threaten the peace process in Northern Ireland for the sake of the ideology of some on the right wing of her Tory party. And how quickly did her cabinet start to fall apart after she sort of made this decision? Pretty quick.

And, you know, there was a joke that the reason why it didn't happen right away is because this cabinet meeting, it happened in a country house in the middle of nowhere outside of London. And that anyone who had decided to quit the cabinet, they would have immediately have lost their government cars and they would have then had to get a taxi. And I can tell you, having covered that cabinet meeting, that it was incredibly difficult to get a phone signal. And who are some of the bigger names who have left her government, and what does that mean for her? Well, the biggest one is a man called Boris Johnson, who will be fairly familiar, I guess. You can't miss him.

He sort of speaks with a very posh English accent. He's got absolutely tons of blonde hair. I will be advocating vote leave because I want a better deal for the people of this country to save them money and to take back control. He was the leading voice of the leave campaign. I mean, if it hadn't been for Boris Johnson and his way with words, I don't think leave would have won the referendum. So to have him leave the government is not a great look. The other minister who left is the person who's actually supposed to be in charge of the department handling Britain's departure. Well, late last night, as you said, the Brexit secretary, David Davis, handed in his notice.

He's been the UK's chief Brexit negotiator for the past two years. In that letter, he said that the general policy that was arranged on Friday will leave us in, at best, a weak negotiating position and possibly an inescapable one. So none of this stuff is a good look. And so who is she replacing Boris Johnson and the person in charge of Brexit with? Well, you can be confident that the two people that she's chosen are people that are just not familiar names here in the UK. She's replaced them by people who are not controversial. So do these new faces have any legitimacy or is it just sort of saving face? No, they have legitimacy.

I mean, in a way, that's not really the problem. I mean, the reason why I say this is such a profound crisis is because the stakes are so high. You couldn't think of anything more important than Britain's place in the world, its relationship with the European Union, its biggest trading partner. But because, quite frankly, neither the main governing Conservative Party nor the main opposition Labour Party really have a clue as to the detail, as to how we do fashion that future relationship. And, you know, the names will come and go, but that dynamic is essentially what the country is stuck with now. And how does Europe feel about this?

The first reaction two years ago was just shock that Britain was leaving. I mean, I think that sort of descended into a mixture of sort of feeling sorry for us, I think a certain amount of pity, a certain amount of impatience. I mean, you have to understand that Britain leaving the European Union is a terrible blow to the EU. I mean, to lose your second biggest country isn't exactly a vote of encouragement. There was a hope initially with the European Union that this could be settled, that Britain would choose to stay very close to the European Union and the negotiations would begin quite quickly.

But I think the Europeans are looking on with some horror at the absolute chaos that has ensued in the United Kingdom. They can see that both the major parties are entirely split over the Europe issue and that worries them because if Britain left the European Union without any kind of deal at all next March, it wouldn't be great for the Europe issue. And that worries them because if Britain left the European Union without any kind of deal at all next March, you know, it wouldn't be great for the European Union. So yeah, there's a mix of horror, a mix of pity and a mix of, for goodness sake, will someone over there take charge? So Prime Minister Theresa May has had a pretty crazy week. How's she going to close it out? What's next? So what the government is going to do in the coming days is to set out its vision of Britain's future trading relationship with the European Union.

And of course, that'll be very interesting. And I think we'll get a sense of what I was talking about of how hard it's going to be to get a deal in Parliament. Because in the governing Conservative Party, the hard Brexiteers will say, no, no, no, no, this is too soft. Lots of people in the main opposition Labour Party will say, no, no, no, it's not soft enough. And there may also be a view amongst the opposition parties, why on earth should we help out a government that's obviously in such a massive pile of trouble when we could force an election? So that is the next thing that happens, the publication of this sort of paper,

which sets out government policy. But I think, again, this is no exaggeration to say, if you look at things from Theresa May's point of view, I mean, this is about day-to-day survival. If you think about this as a war, you know, a war about Britain's future relationship with the European Union, she sort of survived a battle last week. She survived the battle of the resigning ministers. You know, we'll see how much longer she survives. Why do people in the UK want a Brexit to begin with? And do they still even want it?

That's next on Today Explained. When are you going to be back in the office, Brie? I want to be back in the office by like Friday. I think I'm ready. Well, just in case you decide to take an Uber, I want to let you know that Uber is making it easier for you to verify the details of your ride. They show you your driver's name, car and license. You can make sure you get the right ride every time.

There's more safety features. And maybe to keep your driver safe, you can be like, hey, by the way, I've got mono. That helps so much. Hey, you'll see me. I'm slouching over from mono. Can't miss me. Also, what are you doing with all this spare time you have since you're not interning with us per se? You're kind of at home. Have you checked out Vox's new Netflix show, Explained?

I actually did. I've been watching the episode about gaming. What's it called? It's called eSports. eSports, yeah. The new episode today, you'll never guess what it's about. What is it on? The exclamation point.

Oh. Apparently, there's a lot of sexism involved in how people read the exclamation point. Like, it sounds different to people coming from a woman or coming from a man. And this new episode dives into that whole world. I see how that could happen. I'm usually hesitant of using my exclamation points. I don't want to come off too aggressive. We can just stick to communicating through GIFs and emojis.

I think that's the clearest way to get our communication across anyway. You're a big fan of the Usher emoji. Yes. Do you know why? Tell me. What's Usher's biggest and greatest hit? Is it? It's not. What is Usher? Yeah? Yeah. It's yeah. And so every time you guys say something and I want to just be like, you know, instead of using clapping hands

or like a thumbs up, I use yeah, because it's like affirming through Usher. You're brilliant. Get back here as soon as you can. Will do. If you have a vote that says do you want to remain or leave the european union i mean it could mean all sorts of things and i think that is in part what we're struggling with now the whole problem with the referendum is you're not quite sure what people meant by it i mean some people say it was a howl of protest against the high levels of immigration

that there have been in the UK in recent years. Some people would say it was a howl of protest against the austerity that there has been in Europe, including in the UK these last few years. Some people would say it was because they didn't like, you know, David Cameron because he was posh, he was an upper class and, you know, it's just a chance to stick two fingers up to him.

But you get my drift. And do people in the UK still want Brexit? Here's what the opinion polls suggest. They suggest that actually people who voted leave, despite all the evidence, this is going to be massively tricky. They haven't really changed their minds. And the people that voted remain, you know, they've had all their worst fears confirmed. They think Brexit looks just as crazy as we thought.

But here's the one thing that has changed, and I think this is the real danger. And that is that the voters tend to now have the view that the government really hasn't got much of an idea what it's doing when it comes to Brexit. So these are deeply dangerous times for Theresa May and for the government as a whole. This divide you're having between sort of like nativism and immigration policies that may have fueled part of this Brexit vote, it's happening elsewhere in Europe, just without the vote to leave the European Union, right? What made the United Kingdom different in that sense? You know, it's interesting, an awful lot of European leaders have said, some privately, some publicly, that's why we wouldn't be as crazy as the Brits, you know, to put this to a vote, because we know exactly the same thing would happen. I mean, President Macron said on

British television, you always take a risk when you when you when you have such a referendum, just yes or no, in a very complicated context. If France had had a referendum, it might have had the same result. Yeah. And he could have added in brackets, that's why we're not going to be crazy enough to do it, because who knows what would happen. So you're absolutely right. I mean, why did it happen in the UK? The theory is, is that David Cameron, who was then leader of the governing Conservative Party, thought, let's go and finish off the anti-Europeans in my party once and for all. So we just bury this issue that bores absolutely everybody to death. But of course, it had the absolute opposite effect of what he wanted. So he lost his job. All these people that he thought were utterly crazy,

people who are just obsessive about hating the European Union. Guess what? They've all ended up in charge. What would happen if Theresa May last week had just said, you know what, we're going all the way, we're doing a hard Brexit, rolling back immigration, rolling back involvement with the EU on trade, everything's off the table? I think it would have caused the same sort of problem, but opposite to the one that she did in picking the soft side, if you see what I mean. So I think if she decided to side with the hard Brexiteers and done what he said, say, right, you know, we're leaving, no deal. We're closing the borders, all that kind of stuff.

Business would have said, bye-bye. And you have to remember that half of the governing Conservative Party think that Brexit is totally crazy. So that's why I go back to my original point that Theresa May is stuck between a rock and a hard place of David Cameron's making, if you like. And that is that, you know, there is just a profound division within her governing Conservative Party. And why, again, I say it's a crisis is it's very, very difficult to see how you get an agreement when people just

have such a different view of the way forward. How is this affecting regular people while the government can't seem to figure out how to do this thing that people voted for? I mean, for most of them, it just hasn't really affected them at all yet unless they've gone abroad and seen that your holiday is more expensive. But I mean, for an awful lot of people,

when they hear Brexit, they just think of people like me droning on on the radio or TV and dreadful politicians that they hate. So they just, they switch off. And this isn't a criticism of them. You know, they just get on with their lives, going to work.

And unless you've lost your job yet or, you know, found that your company has moved overseas, it's just a lot of tedious noise in the background. And what about for those people who are sort of more invested in, let's say, trade or, you know, European relations in some way? Well, they are screaming at the government. I mean, you really have to understand this. And I don't know whether maybe the mainstream media has done a good enough job of reporting this. But the government is under a kind of constant assault from businesses saying, hey, guys, you need to listen. This is a real problem

for us. We need to know about our supply chains. I think just for Japanese car companies, you know, have these huge factories here, they want to know whether there's going to have to be checks. So business has been absolutely pulling its hair out. And I think that was what forced Theresa May to come down on the sort of the more pro-business side of a soft Brexit. What if David Cameron just came out of the woodwork and said, you know what, guys? I really screwed up. My B. Let's call this whole thing off. Would that do it? If David Cameron came out of the woodwork into some sort of public space, I think he'd just get pelted. All of the people on that sort of remain side,

for him, I think he's the sort of biggest enemy in history. I mean, he is a utterly reviled figure. For people who are on the remain side of the argument, I mean, they would say he's, you know, he was the worst politician, worst prime minister since the war, who's sort of succeeded in plunging the country into chaos. And just to be sure here, calling this whole thing off that seems to be just generally not going well in any way, not an option? Not unless some politician could think of a way of persuading 17.4 million people in the largest ever exercise in democracy in this country pretty much in the last 20, 30, 40 years. Excuse me, folks, are you prepared to change your minds? Now, look, given how crazy and topsy-turvy British politics, you know, have been since June 2016, I mean,

I wouldn't entirely rule that out that somebody says, right, we're going to need to have another vote. The problem with that would be the referendum in Britain didn't create divisions in British society between rich and poor, educated, not so educated educated rural and urban but what what mr cameron's referendum did is it exacerbated those divisions so one of the arguments against having a second vote is oh goodness do we really want to to um you know to just sort of rub that particular wound one thing that might resonate with people in the united states and indeed in other parts of the world in these topsy-turvy times is that the kind of few days that we've seen in british politics where two senior ministers resign in normal times that would be it. I mean, the prime minister would be out of a job. And especially if you stick that together with her being in trouble on the main

issue of the day, namely Brexit, the fact that she lost an election a year ago. I mean, that would be it. She would be so out. But that just reminds us all, these are not normal times. Rob Watson is a reporter with the BBC. I'm Sean Ramos from This Is Today Explained. My name is Rochelle Collins. I live in Sacramento, California. My favorite episode of Today Explained is the one about gerrymandering because I appreciated having that ACDC song stuck in my head for the rest of the day. Shout out to the Twitter handle at today underscore explained. Uber is adding a bunch of new features that are designed to take the stress out of your pickup. You can find out all the ways Uber is moving forward and see the improvements they're making to their app at uber.com slash moving forward.