Today, Explained - Can Beto flip Texas?

Episode Date: September 27, 2022

Republicans have firmly held the Texas governorship since 1995. Beto O’Rourke’s campaign is both a long shot and Democrats’ best challenge in decades. This episode was produced by Hady Mawajdeh, edited by Matt Collette, fact-checked by Laura Bullard, engineered by Efim Shapiro and Paul Robert Mounsey, and hosted by Sean Rameswaram. Transcript at vox.com/todayexplained Support Today, Explained by making a financial contribution to Vox! bit.ly/givepodcasts Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Beto O'Rourke. Failed Senate candidate. Senator Cruz is not going to be honest with you. He's going to make up positions and votes that I've never held or have ever taken. He's dishonest. It's why the president called him Lying Ted. And it's why the nickname stuck, because it's true. Failed presidential candidate.

Our daughter Molly turned 11 this week. I'm on this stage for her, for children across this country, including some her same age who've been separated from their parents and are sleeping on concrete floors under aluminum blankets tonight. Future failed gubernatorial candidate? That one remains to be seen, of course. But a lot of people think Beto's got a chance, more of a chance than anyone's had in a long, long time. His competition, Governor Greg Abbott, is about as divisive as they come. But still, can Beto really flip Texas? That's Today Explained. Today. Get groceries delivered across the GTA from Real Canadian Superstore with PC Express. Shop online

for super prices and super savings. Try it today and get up to $75 in PC Optimum Points. Visit superstore.ca to get started. What do you think today explained us? I don't know. Today Explained, Sean Ramos from Washington, D.C. here with Brandon Rottinghaus, political science professor at the University of Houston in Texas, to talk about a very exciting election in the Lone Star State. It's extremely exciting. Texas politics is definitely always a series of fireworks, like the Fourth of July every other week. Now, if politics is about as exciting as like filing your taxes to you, I totally get it. I totally get it. But still, this will they or won't they question about the Democrats flipping Texas? It's enticing. Democrats are making it

interesting. And I think partly it's just Texans are so anxious for a real two-party state. You're seeing a lot more competition than you have in the past. You've got demographic changes which affect the race and favor, in theory, the Democrats. You've got a lot of money around, which obviously helps to kind of lubricate the machinery of politics. You've got more interest at the grassroots, and that's creating kind of more interesting candidates to run to talk about. So you've got almost 30 years of Republican rule. Think about this. The last time a Democrat won a U.S. Senate seat, Die Hard was in theaters. So the Democrats are still struggling. Do you really think you have a chance against us, Mr. Cowboy? But they have a lot

of things that are moving towards the moment where they're likely to find some success. Because of all of this time Republicans have been in charge of the state, they've made mistakes. And the number of these things is myriad. Millions were plunged into freezing cold and darkness as a major winter storm overwhelmed the state's underprepared power grid. Now to the terrible predicament facing hundreds of thousands of low-income Texas families. They make too much money to get Medicaid, but not enough to buy private insurance. Texas Republican leaders refused to expand Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act, which would cover these Texans. Tonight, a series of flight records show Governor Greg Abbott spent more time fundraising just hours

after the shooting in Uvalde than he initially let on. Abbott first said he stopped at a campaign event on May 24th just to say he couldn't stay long. Now, records show he spent nearly three hours at the event. Well, let's talk about the two characters involved here. At what point does Beto versus Abbott look like an actual competition? When does that happen and how? I think it began in part when the grid failed, because that gave the Democrats a really bold example to point to, to say that the Republicans have been in charge for too long, and they're not doing a good job. The Republican Party, as you know, Mika, has had absolute control

of the state Senate, the state House, every statewide office for the last 20 years. So the decisions to deregulate ERCOT and to ensure that it's not connected to the national grid, to fail to weatherize our power generators, these are all decisions that they made. And now, of course, they're pointing the finger at everyone and everything except for themselves, which does not inspire confidence that we're going to get our way out of this. I think what he was doing was to really, I think, bring people into the equation. I was here in February when the power grid failure knocked the lights out, shut the heat down, froze your pipes, which later burst, water flowed, ruined so many of your homes and apartments and offices and buildings. It's easy to talk about these issues as a kind of statewide problem where,

you know, there's issues that are connected to the technical aspects of the grid. And of course, it was an unusual weather event. So you can sort of pass over the personal, but our work made it personal. It killed hundreds of our fellow Texans, including an 11-year-old boy who literally froze to death in his bed because in the energy capital of North America, we could not keep the power running. And that's useful because the kind of counterclaim is that the Republicans aren't thinking about people, they're thinking about themselves. And so there's an opportunity there for Democrats to show that people matter. And so there's an opportunity there for Democrats to show that people matter.

And O'Rourke is kind of uniquely able to do that because he's got this kind of grassroots appeal about him. What comes next? The biggest issue that he's focused on has been abortion. Obviously, the Dobbs decision created a tremendous opportunity for Democrats to say that the state and the country are out of step with where most

people are. The polling is a little bit wonky on this. Only 15% said that by law, abortion should never be permitted. 39% said that by law, a woman should always be able to obtain an abortion as a matter of personal choice. Tellingly, 28% said that the law should only permit abortion in cases of rape, incest, or when the woman's life is in danger. But the issue favors O'Rourke. So that's something that he's really personified, not just about abortion access, but really is a pivot to healthcare issues. His big approach in 2018 was about healthcare politics. I'll go to Weatherford, or I'll go to Henrietta, and folks will say, I don't like Obamacare. And they may blame President Obama or the Democrats for it,

but they don't want to go back. They say, get something better. And for me, and for many of them, that means universal healthcare, making sure everyone can see a doctor. And they just get- I think the one thing he's really good at for Democrats is giving people a sense that they are involved in this.

He talks about people and talks to people. I say this to all the women in the room right now. It looks like very dark days in a state that has one of the highest maternal mortality rates in the developed world. Because as you shut down reproductive health care clinics, you're also shutting down the opportunity to get a cervical cancer screening, to see a family planning provider, to see a doctor of any kind in the least insured state in America. Watch that get worse as they follow up this decision by trying to ban contraception in the state of Texas going forward. So as tough as this looks right now, let me tell you this. I am going to fight for you. They focused on things that people cared about and were worried about.

So he's used the abortion issue to pivot to health care. And those are two issues where Republicans are not seen as being strong. So you've got the grid, abortion, are there other challenges that Beto presents to Greg Abbott? The biggest other challenge you didn't mention is on gun control. The new Quinnipiac University poll of more than 1,200 Texans shows there are solid majorities who want to see stricter gun laws in the U.S., and that includes requiring background checks for all gun purchases and raising the minimum age to 21 for being able to buy any type of gun. And on this particular issue, Beto literally gets in Abbott's face. Governor Abbott, I have to say something.

Excuse me. Excuse me. Excuse me. It was after Santa Fe. Sit down. Don't pull a stunt. It was after El Paso. Sit down and don't play this stunt.

The next shooting is right now, and you are doing nothing. No. You're offering us nothing. I think that the boldness of it was something Democrats wanted. They're tired of just the staid, you know, kind of one-on-one or ad war that's inevitable in these kinds of races. They want to see some energy. They want to see some political blood. And O'Rourke literally, as you said, confronts the governor saying, you know, this is something that has to be solved.

We owe those parents action. They want us to do something right now. I want us to do something right now. We can do something right now. But if we continue to accept this, then it is on us. It's not just the governor's fault. It is on us. He doesn't want to be the Beto O'Rourke from 2020.

Hell yes, we're going to take your AR-15, your AK-47. We're not going to allow it to be used against our fellow Americans anymore. That's a different kind of O'Rourke. And although the episode in Uvalde helped to contextualize that and made it more neutral, at least, it's still the case that a lot of Republicans view him as the kind of gun-snatching, liberal Beto O'Rourke. He wants to kind of cut it straight down the middle, which is where most Texans are on the issue. So he is in advertising and in his stump speeches talking about common-sense gun control, things that everybody thinks are important to stopping this. O'Rourke said he wants to start with potential gun legislation where there's common ground.

That includes universal background checks, safe storage laws, and red flag laws aimed at keeping people with mental health problems from gaining access to guns. These are places where gun owners, non-gun owners, Republicans, Democrats, independents alike are on the same page. And I think that combined with the fact that the kinds of emotional responses to these terrible tragedies is front and center for people is a way to be able to connect. And I think that even in a place that's so conservative like Texas that loves its guns, there's still the case that people are uncomfortable with that and want to see more common sense gun control. And I think that's the only time these two guys have been like head to head in any kind of confrontation that people at least saw was when Beto confronted Abbott on guns.

But this week, they actually meet for a debate. That's right. Head to head on Friday night, which is unfortunate. Actually, Texas has a long tradition of having debates on Friday night, which is unfortunate. Actually, Texas has a long tradition of having debates on Friday night when historically is the night for high school football. So I think you won't get the kind of attention that you normally would get. That's so weird. Why? Why Friday night? I don't know, except to say that for at least the last 25 years, you've had Republican incumbents, and they've insisted on having these debates on Friday nights. This is true of Rick Perry. It's been true of Greg Abbott. So when no one will be watching them. Yeah, it's a way to kind of skirt and get, you know, less attention to it.

But obviously, we live in a digital age where you can see these things after the fact. I'm surprised, frankly, they debated at all. Greg Abbott has a history of kind of avoiding the media. And so this is definitely a different style, which to me suggests that they're a little bit worried. Can Beto actually do it, though? And what would it mean if he did? That's momentarily on Today Explained. Support for Today Explained comes from Ramp. Ramp is the corporate card and spend management software designed to help you save time and put money back in your pocket.

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Download the app today and discover why BetMGM is your basketball home for the season. Raise your game to the next level this year with BetMGM, a sportsbook worth a slam dunk and authorized gaming partner of the NBA. BetMGM.com for terms and conditions. Must be 19 years of age or older to wager. Ontario only. Please play responsibly. If you have any questions or concerns about your gambling or someone close to you,

please contact Connex Ontario at 1-866-531-2600 to speak to an advisor free of charge. BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. Mamas, tell all your babies don't mess with Texas. Don't let them throw cans from them old pickup trucks. Don't let them throw bottles and papers and such.

Mamas, tell all your babies don't mess with Texas. Keep your trash off the roads and she's a fine yellow rose. Treat Texas like someone you love. Today, explained back with Brandon Rottinghaus, political science prof at the University of Houston. Brandon, we've been talking about this race in terms of the mistakes Governor Abbott has made and the openings they leave for Beto O'Rourke. But let's talk about the polls. We know it's a flawed science, but how does this race look in the polls? It's, I would say, close.

You've got a Republican and a Democrat who are within single digits of each other in a state like Texas. The Quinnipiac poll shows O'Rourke trailing five points behind the incumbent. To give you a little context, in December, O'Rourke was trailing 15 points behind. That's definitely something that's new. So whether, of course, you know, O'Rourke ultimately prevails is unknown. But the fact that it's close does suggest a decades-long process where you've got a bunch of new voters, you've got a change in terms of the demographics in Texas. We've reached a point where Hispanic residents now make up more of the state's population than white residents. You've got

more money flowing to the state. So far this election year, Open Secrets shows Governor Greg Abbott has had roughly $116.8 million contributed to his campaign, while Democratic challenger Beto O'Rourke has $40.7 million. These things are all generating enthusiasm, and I think that's what's keeping it close. And when we say single digits, I think earlier this summer maybe I saw the number 7%. Beto was within 7%.

More recently I've seen the number 9. But it's inching upwards, I guess. So it's getting worse for Beto as we get closer to the election? phenomenon. When O'Rourke was spending a lot of money persuading Texans, you saw that number pretty low. But when push comes to shove and you ask people who are very likely to vote, the dynamics change a bit and Abbott has an advantage. And that's been the way that incumbents have done this in Texas for years. Effectively, their ground game is really solid. They literally have an Abbott University where Governor Abbott set up these organizations to train people to block walk, not just during elections, but all through the year. So that gives them this tremendous turnout potential. The other is, of course, that the governor has got tens of millions of dollars. And the ability to be able to put that marker down before the election even starts and have ads reserved gives him such poll position that it's really hard to undo. And that's why Democrats have struggled for so long.

A recent review by the Associated Press found that since 2013, Abbott has accepted more than $120 million in political contributions. They've elected okay candidates. They've had the right issues, especially that connect to Texans more broadly, and of course, rally Democrats. But it's just the logistics of it that make it so hard for Democrats to be able to overcome the Republican advantage. So Abbott's got tens of millions of dollars in his war chest. What does Beto have? Beto's got, I think, a little more room to grow. He had a pretty good set of early fundraising numbers. Democrat Beto O'Rourke outraised incumbent Greg Abbott in the most recent campaign fundraising period. O'Rourke reported a fundraising record for a single period, raising more than $27 million over four months.

But it's a third of what Abbott has raised. And so Abbott has had this for a long time. They know they can spend that money and put it in place, especially in terms of ads, so that they don't have to scramble at the last minute. Abbott's money comes traditionally from a handful of really big donors, but he's been the party. That's been the kind of stalwart figure. And the money that is invested in Greg Abbott is known to be helpful to the rest of the Republican Party. So that's why he's got so much money. He has a lot of mouths to feed, a lot of responsibility. So if it comes down to money, Abbott's got this. If it comes down to recent historical precedent, Abbott's got this. If it comes down to the culture of Texas,

Abbott's got this. Is there any way Beto can win this? I mean, is there a chance that there's going to be some October surprise? Is McConaughey going to weigh in and throw this race in a certain direction? What happens? You just got to keep living, man. L-I-V-I-N. McConaughey stayed sort of a little neutral, except on the Uvalde issue. He definitely was front and center on that, going to the White House to be able to kind of stump for gun control, which was pretty effective. I think that'd be a big boost for O'Rourke. I'm not sure he's going to get it, but I think there are a couple things that cut in favor of O'Rourke. The first is that the state is becoming less white overall. The populations of minority groups have increased the most, making Texas even more diverse. And one thing that that suggests is that they're more likely to vote for Democrats. So

in terms of the Latino population, in terms of African-American population, in terms of the Asian population, those are all cutting in favor of O'Rourke. But it's a slow process. Demographic change, as it applies to the political momentum, is really a slow thing. So getting the turnout in the groups that are traditionally Democratic allies has been a real challenge in the midterm. So O'Rourke needs to have the young people turn out, which they are in bigger numbers over the last couple cycles. Latinos turn out in bigger numbers, which they are, and that's certainly apparent in the last couple cycles, too. So you're definitely seeing more energy, and that's been something the Democrats have

tried to harness, but the numbers themselves make it complicated. The other is that O'Rourke is winning among moderates of 45% to 28%. Moderate, of course, is a little squishy in terms of how to ideologically position them, but it certainly means that people who are not committed to the Republican approach and who maybe are a little ambivalent about where the state's been going in terms of conservative politics are in O'Rourke's favor. That, I think, is being able to be harnessed by O'Rourke on issues like the grid, on issues like abortion, on issues like gun control, where the state's perceived to be moving way too far to the right. So if these groups can rally behind O'Rourke, then there's a chance that he can cut that margin and do well in some key places that he needs to do well in

order to win statewide. And maybe I should have asked you this a long time ago, but how big a deal would it be if Beto and the Democrats could flip Texas? It would be massive. It would be a political earthquake. And the reason is obviously, for one, symbolic. Winning Texas would be something the Democrats have been trying for for 30 plus years. And to get back to the point where even in a very ruby red Texas, Democrats can appeal to Texans would definitely be a symbolic win for them. But Beto, unfortunately, has a losing track record. That's true. I think one of the complications that O'Rourke presents is that he's seen to be, by Republicans, opportunistic. He's seen to be a gun grabber. He's seen to be way too liberal and out of step with the Texans. That's what Greg Abbott's saying, and that's what a lot of the digital ads he's producing are implying. That's right. Beto stands with groups that support defunding the police.

And I know that it's an idea that is dangerous to some. No, it's dangerous to everyone. And it's why Beto O'Rourke should never be governor of Texas. So what you're saying is we've been talking about flipping Texas for, it feels like almost a decade now, but probably even longer. But there's still quite a ways to go. There's a long way to go. But I think that the demographic changes are certainly in a kind of slow motion process to favor Democrats. So part of the reason Republicans are raising so much money and have spent all this time campaigning in a way that

we didn't see them do in 2020 was that they're worried about this. And it's for good reason. The state is changing in such a way that they are potentially demographically going to be on the outs. The other is that you're seeing effectively a brand new Texas. You've got millions of new people moving to the state. You've got millions of new voters who weren't voting in 2020 and certainly weren't voting in 2018. So you've got effectively an entirely new political state. And so everybody's scrambling to try to find a way to connect to these voters. On balance, Abbott and the Republicans have been pretty successful at it, but that won't last

forever. And if they continue to move in a very conservative direction, out of step with where many voters are, say on gun control issues, medical marijuana issues, legalized full recreational marijuana issues, expanding Medicaid. There are a dozen of these issues where the Republican Party is sort of out of step with where Texans are. And the more that gets highlighted, the harder it's going to be for Republicans to hold power. Brandon Rottinghaus, find him at the University of Houston. Our program today was produced by Hadi Mawagdi. It was fact-checked by Laura Bullard, edited by Matthew Collette,

and mixed and mastered by Paul Robert Mounsey and Afim Shapiro. It's Today Explained. There's a place not too far away from here Out with the cows and the lone star beer Where they're living in love and it's quite alright with me they call in texas it's a mighty fine place to be russ and texas are canada el paso and oklahoma down old mexico and there's houston dallas austin and san anton people in texas sure do make you feel at home Thank you. Bye.