Today, Explained - Can Dems flip state legislatures?

Episode Date: October 10, 2026

Most of the focus in this year’s midterms is naturally on Congress. But the battle to control state legislatures matters just as much, if not more. This show was edited by Kasia Broussalian, fact checked by Esther Gim, mixed by Shannon Mahoney, video edited by Christopher Snyder, and hosted by Astead Herndon. Photo caption: Francesca Hong during a primary election night watch party in Madison, Wisconsin. Photo by Talia Sprague/Bloomberg via Getty Images You can also watch this episode on youtube.com/vox. Listen to Today, Explained ad-free by becoming a Vox Member: vox.com/members. New Vox members get $20 off their membership right now. If you enjoy our reporting and want to learn more, sign up for Astead’s weekly newsletter, Midterms, Actually. Just go to www.vox.com/midtermsactually to learn more, and get in-depth analysis about this year’s election right to your inbox. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Everyone's talking about the prospect of a democratic wave in the midterm elections. But what does that actually mean? Now, of course, most of the focus is on Congress. But here's something that matters just as much, the battle to control state legislatures. Because for issues like health care, abortion rights, even when it comes to certifying the presidential election in 2028, state legislatures matter just as much, if not more than Congress. Let's take a look at the maps. Right now, the GOP has a trifecta in 23 states,

which means they control the governor's seat, plus the statehouse and the state senate. For Democrats, it's 16 states, meaning most Americans live in a state that's under full Republican control. But that's exactly what could change in this midterm elections, particularly if there's a blue wave. If Democrats flip just a handful of state legislatures,

the majority of Americans will now live in the state under full Democratic control, which could have big policy implications. Meaning that the opportunity to pass the policies that the majority of our state supports, things like increasing minimum wage, things like legalizing marijuana, you know, that's all on the table with the Democratic trifect. This week on America, actually, we're in Wisconsin, one of those states where local control is on the line. and we talk with Francesca Hahn.

How's it going? It's been all right. Yeah? State Assemblywoman and former gubernatorial candidate who's currently trying to help state Democrats turn the prospect of a blue wave into the reality of a blue trifecta. Let's dig in.

I'm Inna Garten, and each week on Happy Hour, I invite new and old friends for a drink and a fun conversation at my kitchen table in New York City. On this week's episode, I'm joined by Nathan Lane. We talk about his critically acclaimed run in death of a salesman, taking his dog to therapy, and winning an Emmy for only murders in the building. New episodes of Happy Hour are available every Wednesday. You can watch on YouTube or listen wherever you get your podcasts. Cheers.

Hi, Sue Bird here. I've got another brand new episode of Bird's Eye View for you this week. Join me on the pod is Washington Mystics Point Guard, Georgia Amor. We talk about the lessons she learned from the Mystic's first playoff push. since 2023, making the most of her skill set given her size and what it would mean to make the Australian national team. Check out Birds Eye View on YouTube and wherever you get your podcasts. Okay, so I personally love Wisconsin. And not just because I went to college there. Wisconsin is a perfect case study and the importance of state and local elections. Wisconsin is

famously a 50-50 state, known for its very close statewide campaigns. But after Republican governor Scott Walker won in 2011, Republicans redrew the state maps, making it nearly impossible for Democrats to win a meaningful majority in the state house or the state legislature. For years, Wisconsin was basically under one-party control, and there was little voters could even do about it. And while Democrats took back the governor's mansion in 2018, they failed to flip the state legislature, which meant newly elected governor Tony Evers spent most of his time in office vetoing Republican bills, not implementing his own agenda. But a few years ago, the newly elected state Supreme Court redrew the maps entirely,

giving Wisconsin Democrats a fresh opportunity to turn their fortunes around. So while a lot of attention has been paid to the state's governor's race or the state's important congressional races, the local attention is on the state legislature. and the new opportunity that Democrats have to finally flip enough seats that they could actually pass something. And interestingly enough, one of the people leading that charge is state assemblywoman Francesca Hong. You might remember her from her race for governor, the Democratic Socialists who lost by about 4,000 votes to Milwaukee's David Crawley. These days, Hong is back on the campaign trail, campaigning for down-ballot candidates and stressing the importance of not just winning back the governor's mansion, but getting that trifecta.

We're still here, and it's so important that people find avenues to continue to exercise their voice and their new organizing power. But for Democrats to actually reach trifecta status, they need to do something a little difficult. First, come together after a bruising primary. But second, and probably most important, they need to win in more rural areas, where the party has to be a pruze. historically struggled, which brought us to Menominee, Wisconsin, population around 16,000. This is where Hong was hosting a campaign event at a local brewery, stressing this exact point. Democrats just don't need to win in November. They need to win everywhere.

Representative Hong, thank you so much for joining us. Thanks so much for coming to Monominee. I'm pumped to be here. I told you this before, but you know you're sitting with a Bears fan, right? Hi, I do and I feel this tension, but I also, I'm so excited when we have new folks coming to Wisconsin. You're willing to see past it. Yeah. Part of the reason we wanted to come here was because we saw you were getting back on the campaign trail and specifically around that idea of energizing Wisconsin toward a trifecta.

Now, just tell me the difference in terms of the importance of Democrats winning all, not only governor's mansion, but both houses of the state legislature versus what you're are running for in just the governor's mansion. Like, how does that change the possibilities of what the party could do in the state? For the last 16 years, a Republican majority in the legislature has meant that passing the types of policies that we know can drastically improve the lives of everyday folks here in Wisconsin has been stalled. And we have a historic opportunity to flip the assembly and the state senate and hold the governor's mansion and the entire executive branch to a Democratic majority, meaning that the opportunity to pass the policies that the majority of our state supports, things like increasing minimum wage, things like legalizing marijuana, you know, codifying abortion.

We also need to repeal Act 10. Wisconsin is where workers' rights, things like unemployment insurance, social security. These were progressive policies that were born in our state, and we move backwards with the Republican. majority. So that's all on the table with the Democratic trifecta. It also raises the political standard of what Democrats would have to do to achieve that. And some of it feels like it goes through these kind of more rural communities in terms of being able to get a trifecta. Why do we think the party has fallen back in more rural communities? And what can be done and reverse that? I think it's important to look at what's happened in the rural communities economically.

When we've seen manufacturing jobs lead the state, when we've seen, you know, fewer and fewer supports come for our small farmers. And so much of this, what connects it is actually the growth of massive wealth and corporate control and corporate greed. And so more people feeling the impacts of that, there's an opportunity right now when we're talking about, hey, Republicans have been in the legislature, they've been in power and things have not improved for you or your community. Now's the opportunity to make sure that we're actually able to see our shared Wisconsin values of working hard and taking care of our kids be reflected back in Madison through laws. Why didn't Democrats do that earlier, though? It would seem as if like the economic

depression in these communities is an obvious focus, right? Like, why does it take till now? Why wasn't that the focus over the last decade? Well, here in Wisconsin, a little thing called gerrymandering happened. So if you look at our elections in the last, over the last 12 years, we right now have a Democratic governor and we have a Democratic senator and a Republican senator. What is a 50-50 state has not been reflected in our state legislature because of the maps where people were being represented by Republicans in districts that were locked in to lean towards a Republican. So I think having achieved a more liberal majority in the Supreme Court and getting new maps and this wave of folks feeling incredibly frustrated with the Trump regime and seeing that

there are so great working class candidates right now running for the state legislature that have built relationships with their communities and I think these are the candidates that are strongest and best position to win a more popular vote regardless of party affiliation. So much of your campaign was focused on data centers,

stopping data centers. Should I can think of that as a rural issue? I think the issue around data centers is an everyone issue. It's a democracy. It's people wanting to feel like there's folks who care about what happens to communities and that they have control and an actual say in what happens in their backyard. Yeah, that control part is really clear. We hear that everywhere. The control, but also to know that their elected officials actually care about what happens.

To that point, is it mistake for David Crawley, the Democratic nominee, to have not gone as far as you did and say, we won't be building more data centers for a period of time? Well, he's fighting for communities and community control. when it comes to data centers. He is committed to... It isn't, but he's also committed to 100% renewable energy, clean energy having to power data centers. And achieving that is going to be incredibly difficult in it.

It's going to be the data centers, developers, having to pay their own way. And these are things that he's committed to that we know can slow down the growth and development of data centers. Is that enough for supporters of yours who felt like this was such an existential issue? I mean, it would seem as if local control is one piece,

But if I'm someone who thinks that the growth of them is already gone too far, how does that solve that? David's current position does not mean that it's the one that's going to pass into law, which is why it's more important that we have a Democratic majority in our legislature to make sure that we have a dialogue and a check between the executive and the legislature. With the Republicans in control, when we elected Tony Evers, the Democrat who's serving as governor now, they held lame duck sessions to undermine the powers of the governor. I think it's important to know that we have to continue to exercise our voice to make sure that after November, if David is to become our governor, that we continue to hold our elected officials accountable. Is the message to progressives, hey, this is a starting point and we'll keep pushing it?

I think that there are many starting points and there are many avenues to keep pushing him. and whether that's making sure that at your state legislator and your local elected officials to fight for a moratorium locally, we're seeing them pass, you know, Superior here in Wisconsin has passed local city moratorium. We can still fight on that level as well. There's a lot of avenues, I hear you. I wanted to know, have you had time to reflect on your primary loss?

Like, if you had to diagnose, why do you think you lost? I'm still doing a lot of reflection, but I think that, I want to continue to look forward. And what I've learned from our election is that it's so important to continue to stay grounded and becoming accessible to people. I think that as an organizer and an elected official,

it's my responsibility to continue to go to the people and remain very in touch with what's going on on the ground. I have a couple more questions, though, just about the nature of the loss, you know, Evers endorsement changed that race so much so that, you know, your opponent Crowley was able even to win in some smaller communities, like places that you were pitching yourself as kind of the voice of more rural communities. Does that just prove any of this thesis around, say, data centers? Like, if that was the top priority for Wisconsin voters, wouldn't you be the nominee? I think it wasn't all rural communities. It wasn't all suburban communities. We saw certain demographics, but also zip codes where we outperformed David significantly.

And I think that where the governor's endorsement played a bigger role was areas that he was also more popular as well. Outside of our political bubbles, he still... Did it surprise you when Evers endorsed Crawley? I wasn't... I was disappointed. Why? I was disappointed because I was getting a lot of feedback from folks who hadn't committed.

to any candidate yet that this felt like the governor was putting his thumb on the scale, and the other candidates felt like that as well. I mean, on one hand, you could argue that's, you know, what endorsements do, that folks want to know how folks, a person like the sitting governor wants to weigh in. But I think from a national perspective, it was surprising just because of the way the race was playing out. On that front, I wanted to ask about electability because it seemed as if Ivers' endorsement was so about that, a kind of fear that maybe you couldn't win in November.

So much of that primary concern was around the DSA label, even campaigning with folks like Hassan Piker. In the retrospect, was any of that a mistake? We knew going in that we would have to encourage new voters to come out, folks who typically do not come out for primaries, quote-unquote, low-propensity voters. And we knew that we would have to campaign in places where folks weren't expecting to see a gubernatorial candidate. And those included Twitch streams.

Those also included going to dive bars and bowling alleys and making sure that we were accessible and shaping our policies based on what the people were telling us they wanted to see happen and also what they wanted to see out of their governor. Think electability. I said this and I will continue to say it. It's the person who was most electable

is the person who ended up getting the most votes and that was probably this time around. But there's, I think, a disservice when you have the most powerful Democrat in this state, choosing to ignore a lot of voters and people who were inspired and energized and coming out to participate in politics for the first time through our campaign. And so I think it was short-sighted to use. electability almost as fear tactic. When Democrats need to be inspiring and project a vision where everyone can see themselves in it as an everyday working class folks.

And when you've got a party that has struggled with elitism to then cave into an establishment narrative that I was even trying to fight. Because how you define establishment, it's so But to then narrow down electability into folks being more afraid of labels when I'm hearing from people on the ground that they're interested in solutions, in solving problems, and knowing that maybe, you know, somebody who knows the hustle of the service industry and running restaurants and has worked across the aisle to pass bipartisan legislation, there are ways that we can maneuver around labels and what the loudest narrative is.

might be. I wish our governor hadn't fed into that. I hear you. And to be fair, I mean, to your point, the establishment label doesn't fully fit. Even someone like Kralu comes from a working class background. Exactly. But am I hearing you that you think Ivers move made y'all's life in the general maybe even more difficult? Like, is it harder to re-inspire if, you know, young people who are invested in the Hong campaign think that the establishment kind of squashed them out? But we still had over 300,000 votes. We lost by fewer than 4,000 votes.

You know, I had more votes than Evers did during his primary. You know, those aren't squashing our voices. We're still here and it's so important that people find avenues to continue to exercise their voice and their new organizing power. And I'm definitely going to continue to work to make sure that we get results and that we win the trifecta, and that's the most important thing we should be focusing on right now. I hear why a trifecta matters in the state context, particularly the state policy. If I'm someone, though, who's not in Wisconsin, who's just worried about, you know,

Donald Trump, run the muck in Washington, why should I care of Democrats win the governor's mansion and the state legislature? Like, does that matter for folks outside of the state? Absolutely. Why? Because we will start to see when you feel government actually working and you see change happening in your lives. I mean, these are then voters who are going to, to continue to come out and vote for Democrats. And we're a pivotal state when it comes to the federal elections as well.

We're actually in a swing district right now. We have an opportunity through Wisconsin to actually start improving the brand for Democrats. And we do that here. This trickles out to the rest of the country. The premise being delivering creates a connection for Democrats that is helpful in the president's election. It's helpful in all these other ways, too. That we're not going to be fighting every single, you know, midterm and presidential for our lives based on what's happening in just one state. But I think if we can start showing, you know, durable power for Democrats in a state like ours because of the policies that we're prioritizing.

And you have more folks coming out to vote for Democrats. That's good for the health of democracy. What do you expect we're going to hear in there? Like more despair over the primary or more excessive? about the possibilities of the general. I think folks have a right to despair, but I want us to hold on to our hope for change. And that's what today's conversation, I hope, is about.

Thank you so much for your time. I really appreciate this. Yeah, thanks so much. Yeah, yeah. This is great. So Representative Hong is clearly still coming to terms with the Democratic Party that never seemed to fully embrace her. her. But what about her supporters? Are they jazz for David Crawley? And what do they think the coast get wrong about the politics of rural communities? It's not left, right? It's

bottom of top in terms of power, right? Up next, Francesca Hong takes the stage and makes her case for full democratic control. Support for the show comes from Chime. Probably you don't like bank fees. The whole point of keeping your money at a bank is it's supposed to collect interest and grow, not shrink with every overdraft fee or monthly service fee. That's where Chime comes in. Chime is changing the way people bank. Chime is not like traditional banks that keep the best rewards and pile on hidden fees. Unless you have a massive balance,

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improve your mood, and keep your weight stable? No, it's not protein. It's actually fiber, the least sexy, most overlooked nutrient of all. But what is fiber? How could one nutrient do all those amazing things? And how can you get enough? Is a powder you stir into some water going to do it for you? All that plus the strange tale of the gorilla poop obsessed father of cornedlakes in the latest episode of Gastropod. Find gastropod and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. For me, I see the path to the trifecta runs through Western Wisconsin, not just here in our state legislature. We got two seats that we can flip in the Senate to win a Democratic majority and five seats that we got to flip in the Assembly to win a Democratic majority.

So in Menominee, Hong stood in front of what might be the most Wisconsin scene ever. couple dozen people outside of a local brewery after a folk singer had just warmed up the crowd. I think that in order for us to have a Wisconsin where we can continue to organize and build power for working class people, that opportunity comes with electing Democrats down and up the ticket. Remember, Hong barely lost her primary, and her campaign particularly resonated with big groups of young people. She had a massive volunteer army, and her campaign was especially notable for its focus, on the Data Center moratorium, an issue we've heard a lot about this year. But in this speech, Hong focused more on the State House

and the policy implications of a Democratic trifecta. And it's with a Democratic trifecta that we'll be able to make the investments that we need in our community when it comes to affordable housing, free child care, and ensuring that we are fully funding our public schools. Hong was clearly doing a balancing act. coming to terms with her primary loss, while at the same time trying to rally her supporters around down-ballot success. And while the results on primary day weren't what we had hoped for, I think it's so important that we remember, recognize, and carry forward the movement that our campaign built. Because it was never about one candidate.

But listening to her speech, I also wanted to talk to the people who came out for it. There's no chance that Democrats can flip the state legislature in Wisconsin without increasing their support in more rural communities. But doesn't the Democratic Party have a brand problem in rural America? So what are the issues that matter here that could decide which way this goes? Please know we will always make better possible. Thank you so much. Can you all tell me your names?

I'm state representative Tara Johnson, and I represent the 96th Assembly District. And my name is Barb Wise, and I'm a citizen in Chippewa County. So my name is Abe Smith. Abe Smith. Aestead, nice to meet you. Nice to meet you.

Tell me your name. Honey. Kiven. Keevan. Keevan. Keevan. I'm excited to be out here in Menominee. What brought you out to this event today? Well, actually, I had to donate. a few times to Francesca's campaign for governor.

What was the issue that brought you to supporting her primary campaign? She was so out talking to everybody. I had first seen her in O'Clair, probably a year before the campaign started really get rolling. And she was just so comfortable talking to people and down to earth. One thing I think Fran did really well. She did campaign up here in these rural, more remote areas. She did an amazing tour.

She came through this town three times over the last. I mean, no one else does that, right? I like her ideas, and anybody that has the guts to run as a Democratic socialist, I give credit to. Obviously, she wasn't successful in that primary. Was there, like, you know, any part of you that had to mourn that for a while before you signed up for the Democrat in the general election? Like, how have you dealt with the question of disappointment? I was disappointed, but I knew that as soon as she immediately got on board with David

Crowley, I thought, here's a candidate who is not going to pout about not winning. She's going to immediately get on board with her counterpart who did win the primary. And so why would I not support her? Would you describe your general election vote as more for Crawley or against Tiffany? Oh, definitely. Well, both. I mean, every, we live in a two-party system, right? You know, do you have any difficulty, you know, signing up for the Crawley campaign?

Or is that kind of an easy transition for you? Well, I'll support it. I consider myself probably an independent, but not in the usual thing. Basically, my policy is I will always vote for the most progressive candidate that is on there and can win. Did you hear any people who maybe also supported Hong who were slower than that? Or did you have to convince anybody and say, hey, don't say this one out? I didn't personally have to convince anybody, but I saw enough.

chatter on Facebook and other things where people would say things like, well, let's just use that as an example. Francesco didn't win, so I'm not voting for Crowley. It's like, well, that's just stupid. I mean, primaries are really messy, right? Primaries, no matter what party it's for, primaries always feel like a family feud. Yeah. Part of the reason we're here is particularly because of a focus on rural issues, as you all talked

about. It seemed as if Hong had traveled to these communities, had really made that a focus of her campaign. What do you think Democrats could do generally to improve their standing in more rural communities? I think a lot of people need to see something that actually makes their life better. And I think sometimes the Democrats go into more that Blue Dog Centrist area, where they kind of nibble around the edges, but when it comes to it, there's not significant change. You know, I would say if I put my DC hat on, they would say that the way to appeal to rural communities is to do centrist kind of come to the middle.

What does that get wrong? I think it gets wrong the like treading water that we have been doing for a long, long time. And I think people are tired of it. I think a lot of rural people maybe are more conservative. Maybe they're a little bit more apprehensive of these, you know, radicals as they're called. I think things like, okay, if you can show that there are things that are going to change their life for the better, that I think,

People might start coming around and maybe not be as susceptible to those fear kind of things that get thrown out there. I think people across the, across the aisle even, are interested in movement and progress. Solutions at the scale of their problems. Perfect. Can I quote you on that? You can do that. You know, we hear so much about the Democrats' brand problem in rural places. Do you think they have a brand problem?

I don't. You don't, okay. I don't understand where people, when Kamla was running, and people would say, you know, Democrats are so out of touch. And I'm thinking, no, they're not out of touch. Someone who's out of touch is the multi-billionaires. They're the ones who are out of touch with the general population. I don't understand.

So is it a disconnect? Like, are Democrats then communicating those values well enough? Like, I mean, I remember hearing so many people feel like Harris was not someone. for, you know, maybe non-city folk. So what was the disconnect? I'm not sure the only thing I can think of as sometimes or often, I think Democrats aren't assertive enough in pushing their agenda. I think sometimes Democrats are a little spineless.

And I think lazy, right? I mean, I think we were like fat and happy picking up new voters in urban areas. We were fat and happy picking up, you know, immigrant populations as voters typically into the Democratic Party. And I think that we, it's harder work. The driveways are farther apart, right? The gathering spots are, you know, in the back of a pickup truck.

I think people want dramatic, rapid, radical, fundamental change the way our systems work, economically, politically. They want to see the action. They want to see the action. And when they see someone who's kind of like being, you know, hemming and hauling and not really getting to a point

about a future politics, They kind of just tune out and say, well, they're not serious, so I don't care. I'm curious, like, you know, obviously that primary was quite bruising, I would say, maybe, if we think that's fair. But one of the things we've been talking to her about was the kind of need for unity and enthusiasm for the focus of a Democratic trifecta. You've worked in that legislature. What would be the difference of having a kind of Democrats control both those houses and the governor's mansion versus what y'all have been up against over the last time? I mean, it makes all the difference in the world. I would just set the record straight.

I'm just finishing my first term. Okay. So I know two years of oppression from the Republicans where we introduced 500 pieces of legislation and something like 19 of them made it even to a committee. So the trifecta is, as Fran said, everything. If we look forward, obviously the Democrats are trying to win the trifecta here.

If you could control the democratic message in your community or in Wisconsin even, what do you think they should be talking about? I think just talking about the whole equality thing. There's just so much inequality, whether it be financial inequality, job inequality, pursuit of education inequality. So if I'm not in Wisconsin, as many of our listeners or watchers would be like, should I think going into election night that the standard for success for Democrats is not just, you know, David Crawley

beaten Tom Tiffany, but we should be thinking about that trifecta as what the goal is here? 100%. 100%. Yeah, 100%. And again, I am going to go back to what France said because I think it was so, it made such an impact on me that we only have hope with a trifecta.

Okay, so two things stick out to me from our trip to Wisconsin. First, Washington often uses rural voting. especially in the Midwest, as a stand-in for centrism. But that's not how these people sounded. They want a data center moratorium. They want legalized marijuana. And most of all, they want a party of bold ideas

that has the ability to deliver. And that should complicate our understanding of the electability issue. Electability isn't just about where you fall on the ideological spectrum. It's also about your willingness to follow through on campaign promises and actually affect tangible change in people's lives. The second thing that sticks out is how the Democratic establishment treats its progressive wing.

In Michigan, after Haley Stevens barely lost her Senate primary, there was a lot of discussion about what Abdul El-Sayed needs to do to win over her voters. But we've heard a lot less of that in Wisconsin. Doesn't David Crawley have the same responsibility to win over the people who backed Francesca Haan? I think that's a double standard worth calling out. A Big Ten Party shouldn't only mean that progressives make room for moderates. It should also mean that the party acknowledges where their most popular ideas are coming from and who's motivating important groups like rural voters and young people.

Maybe the left was a nuisance in the primary season, but they're a necessary ingredient if Democrats have any hope of a blue wave and especially a trifecta. America actually will be in your feeds every Saturday with an interesting interview in culture or politics. You can also watch these episodes on the vox.com YouTube channel. Just go to YouTube.com slash Vox, or click the link in the show notes. If you enjoy our reporting and you want to learn more,

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