Today, Explained - China’s soft (and fluffy) power

Episode Date: November 13, 2023

Panda diplomacy couldn’t fix the US and China’s tense relationship. Perhaps a meeting between Presidents Biden and Xi can bring back that fuzzy feeling. Ian Johnson of the Council on Foreign Relations and Panda Nation author E. Elena Songster explain. This episode was produced by Avishay Artsy, edited by Matt Collette, fact-checked by Serena Solin, engineered by Rob Byers, and hosted by Noel King. Transcript at vox.com/todayexplained Support Today, Explained by making a financial contribution to Vox! bit.ly/givepodcasts Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

I have lived in D.C. for a while and I feel like I just took them for granted. I didn't come visit them enough and now that they're leaving, I want to say goodbye to them. China's President Xi Jinping recently recalled three Chinese diplomats from Washington, D.C. It's a shame for us that they're going back. They were not human, these ambassadors. If they were, the pained reaction of D.C. residents would be bizarre. Note, they were giant panda bears, and days ago they took a FedEx plane called the Panda Express back to China.

China first started gifting pandas to zoos around the world decades ago. It was a demonstration of soft power. And then in recent years, it's begun loaning them for large fees. But those loan agreements are coming to an end. On Wednesday, President Biden will meet with President Xi in San Francisco during an economic summit, and we're told that pandas will not be on the agenda. But that's okay. They're on ours. It's Today Explained.

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Gambling problem? Call 1-866-531-2600 or visit connectsontario.ca. Ian, go ahead, give me your full name and tell me what you do. My name is Ian Johnson. I am the Senior Fellow for China Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. Ian, do we know what is on the agenda for this meeting between Biden and Xi? We have a pretty good idea based on issues that matter to both countries, but there's not a specific agenda that either country has released. So we know that certain things are

going to be brought up because they matter to both countries. And there's going to be probably a far-ranging discussion on almost everything that matters between the two. What are the top line items? What's important to both countries? Well, I think for China, it's going to be Taiwan. Taiwan is the island that it claims as a part of its territory. It's self-governing and it's democratic. It lies off the coast of China and they are having elections in January. Beijing may try to discipline Taiwan's new government by demonstrating how formidable Chinese power, military and otherwise, is. They want the United States to commit to not supporting independence for Taiwan. This is a red line issue for them. They would probably go to war if Taiwan

were to declare independence. So I think they want to really make sure that that doesn't happen. I think for the United States, also, they want China not to interfere in Taiwan's election and let the people there decide how they want to be governed in the future. America must stay true to our values and remain consistent in our support for the people of Taiwan who share America's people's desire to live in peace, freedom, and democracy. Also on the agenda is probably going to be something important to U.S. voters, especially to Biden, and that would be the fentanyl crisis. China makes some of the drugs is probably going to be something important to U.S. voters, especially to Biden, and that would be the fentanyl crisis. China makes some of the drugs that are used to manufacture fentanyl, and the administration is going to want them to not do that, not export that and to crack

down on that kind of thing. We called on President Xi to work with the United States to stem the flow of precursor chemicals that are fueling America's fentanyl crisis. I think both countries are probably going to also talk about the economy and how they can improve economic ties and things like that. And in general, I think also for Xi Jinping, it really matters, the optics really matter, that there's the photo op afterwards. He has essentially over the past decade turned his back on the recipe for success that China had in the 80s, 90s, 2000s, which was opening up to the outside world, reforming more pro-market reforms. He's turned his back on that. And there are a lot

of people grumbling about that inside China. So for him to be able to show, look, I'm meeting the president of the United States. We have a good relationship. Things are moving forward. That's really important. China's economy has struggled this year in some very real ways. The U.S. economy is struggling less, even though because interest rates are high and inflation is high, Americans seem to think it's struggling. Are we looking at this meeting, are we looking at any particular formal economic agreements? Well, I think it's an interesting role reversal because for years it's been China, which has had the economy roaring ahead,

and the United States, which has been much slower. Now we have China's economy slowing, high youth unemployment. Last year there were protests for the first time. Imagine if your bank accounts were frozen without warning. Or you've been paying for an apartment that hasn't been built. That's happening in China. By the contrast, the United States, even though, as you mentioned, interest rates are high

and a lot of people are feeling pain because of that, the economic growth is still pretty good. It's near 5%. So that's something that China has roughly also 5% growth, but it's a much poorer country. So it should be growing a lot faster than the United States. So it'll be kind of interesting, I think, for the United States at the summit in general, not just with Biden and Xi, but the whole APEC summit to say, hey, you know, our system isn't so bad. We actually also have fast economic growth, etc. So I think that's one thing that the United States can use in its favor. This is only the second time that Xi and Biden have met each other since Biden became

president. They met each other before when Biden was vice president. It's important because, you know, we don't know what kind of information Xi Jinping is getting. He broke term limits. He's now ruling basically for life, it appears. He's surrounded by all accounts and by how we can observe things. Yes, man, there's a fair amount of political turmoil at the top. So we don't know what kind of information Xi Jinping is getting. It's important that we sit down face to face with him, bypass all the handlers and so on, and just for Biden to be able to tell him what U.S. policy is and what kind of things we need to have a more stable, long-term relationship. How would you characterize what's happened in the past year? Is the relationship between

the United States and China since that last meeting, is it getting better? Is it getting worse? Is it about the same? I think it's gotten a little bit better. At the beginning of this year, there was the spy balloon incident. A Chinese spy balloon was, by all accounts, pushed off course, went over the United States, and then eventually U.S. fighters shot it down. Look at this statement coming from the Chinese Defense Ministry, quote, The U.S. used force to attack our civilian unmanned airship, which is an obvious overreaction.

We express solemn protest against this move by the U.S. side and reserve the right to use necessary means to deal with similar situations. And that was probably a low point of relations. But since then, there's been this effort to say, hey, let's not let things get out of control here. We have two extremely powerful militaries. There are a lot of points of tension in the Pacific, such as Taiwan. We don't want to really lurch into a war. We have to be very careful about this.

So I've seen more and more ties between senior leaders. Kerry went to Beijing, Blinken went to Beijing, the senior Chinese diplomat came to Washington, etc. The meetings are an important step in thawing relations between China and the U.S., even though Beijing and Washington likely have different agendas this week. I think there's an effort just probably also because both leaders need this relationship to be quiet, to be calm. Next year is an election year in the United States, obviously. Biden already is facing two crises on the foreign policy front. One is the Hamas war and the other is Ukraine, which is still percolating along out of the headlines right now, but it's still going on.

And the United States is making huge commitments. We can't afford to have another crisis now in the Asia-Pacific area. I think for China, the economy is so bad, so slow. They want to focus on that and getting that right and not bump into the United States and have some kind of a crisis there. How could China play into the 2024 election? I think it can only really play a role if there were some kind of a crisis there. How could China play into the 2024 election? I think it can only really play a role if there were some kind of a crisis. Famously, foreign policy doesn't really affect the overall outcome of elections. Most of it are on checkbook issues, pocketbook issues.

And so it's going to be basically probably decided on how people feel about the future of the U.S. economy and the future of the country.S. economy and the future of the country in general, more broadly. If there were, however, a war over Taiwan, then people would maybe think, oh, is Biden really the expert on foreign policy? He's supposed to be the seasoned pro, as opposed to Trump, who sort of had this reputation perhaps for being outspoken and brusque and ruffling feathers. But Biden has got us into several crises. This could be the argument, right? And so I think it's really important for the Democrats and for the administration to tamp this down and to try

to put it on the back burner and just make sure it stays there for another year. Right. And if there is a crisis, I would imagine that some of the criticism Biden would get is that he's been distracted by Ukraine. He's been distracted by what's going on between Israel and Hamas. He's not paid enough attention. I mean, that's always a vulnerability, right? It is vulnerability. Don't forget, like about 10 years ago the obama administration said we're going to pivot to asia oh yeah put behind us the forever wars in iraq and afghanistan and we're going to put our effort on the future of the world which is this global rivalry if you will between the united states and china or cooperation etc as we end today's wars i have directed my national security team to make our presence and mission in the Asia-Pacific a top priority.

And that worked for a while. That was also a focus of attention of the Trump administration. But now it seems like we're pivoting back to the Middle East and pivoting back to Europe. And so I think in this context, we need to make sure that Asia doesn't become another flashpoint. Are you based in Washington, D.C.? No, I'm in New York City. You're in New York City, but you heard about the pandas, right? I did hear about the pandas, yeah. What does it mean?

Because I'm seeing a lot of very dark talk about those pandas going home to China means bad things for U.S.-China diplomacy. Yeah. You think they'll come up at the meeting? Yeah, could be. But to me, this is sort of an own goal by China. I don't know why they insist on treating this like some kind of a trade deal. I mean, at the end of the day, the animals are not really endangered anymore.

They could give them to countries around the world, but they treat them as some sort of proprietary technology. If a baby panda is born, you know, it belongs to China. You can never have your own pandas. And it seems like a really cheapskate version of soft power you know soft power should be kids go to the zoo they see pandas they go yay China has got pandas I want to go to China instead it's like no we're taking them home so I kind of feel like it's somewhat self-defeating I feel really sad about the pandas that are leaving. They should get more time to spend here than in China.

That was Ian Johnson of the Council on Foreign Relations. Coming up, China's loan of the pandas, its panda diplomacy. Has that time come to an end? Support for Today Explained comes from Aura. Aura believes that sharing pictures is a great way to keep up with family. And Aura says it's never been easier thanks to their digital picture frames. They were named the number one digital photo frame by Wirecutter. Aura frames make it easy to share unlimited photos and videos directly from your phone to the frame.

When you give an aura frame as a gift, you can personalize it. You can preload it with a thoughtful message, maybe your favorite photos. Our colleague Andrew tried an aura frame for himself. So setup was super simple. In my case, we were celebrating my grandmother's birthday, and she's very fortunate. She's got 10 grandkids, and so we wanted to surprise her with the AuraFrame. And because she's a little bit older, it was just easier for us to source all the images together and have them uploaded to the frame itself. And because we're all connected over text message, it was just so easy to send a link to everybody. You can save on the perfect gift

by visiting AuraFrames.com to get $35 off Aura's best-selling Carvermat frames with promo code EXPLAINED at checkout. That's A-U-R-A-Frames.com, promo code EXPLAINED. This deal is exclusive to listeners and available just in time for the holidays. Terms and conditions do apply. People from every background, young and old, find themselves drawn to pandas because they're cute,

they're round, they engage in antics that seem somewhat human-like. They sit down with their legs sprawled and crunch on bamboo like you might imagine a friendly face of China in the presence of citizens around the globe. E. Elena Songster is a professor of history at St. Mary's College of California, and she's also author of the book Panda Nation, the Construction and Conservation of China's Modern I icon. Now, before 1972, China and the United States were more or less enemies. And then Richard Nixon traveled to China in what was possibly one of the most important geopolitical meetings of all time, no shade to Xi and Biden, and China gifted two pandas to the U.S. So when China sent pandas to the United States, there were hundreds of people who lined up to welcome them. And best of all, for the gift of the pandas, which all children,

whatever age, will enjoy. And I include myself in that category. Mrs. Nixon was there and other important dignitaries and officials were all there welcoming the pandas. It was written in newspaper accounts. I think pandemonium is going to break out right here at the zoo. Thank you very much. People were as amazed by the reception as they were by the pandas themselves and likened the arrival of the pandas to something that would be expected as if Mao Zedong himself was coming to the United States. And then subsequent to this, Japan normalized relations with China. And so there was an immediate expectation that that

warming of relations was also going to be accompanied by a gift of a pair of pandas. And they were received with even more pomp and circumstance and crowds in Japan when that display was first opened. What is the panda's symbolic value? What does the bear itself symbolize beyond sending it means we're friends? The giant panda has never been formally chosen as like the national emblem of the People's Republic of China. However, it has been chosen as a mascot for the Olympic Games and these types of things. And its symbolic value is something that has grown over time. And I attribute it in a lot of ways to the politics and culture of the People's Republic of China. Prior to the 20th century, people in China didn't pay much attention to the giant panda.

You will not find brush painting or silk painting or silk embroidery or bamboo carving or paper cutouts with pandas prior to the 20th century because it wasn't an important animal in traditional Chinese culture. I argue that's one of the reasons it becomes important in the 20th century, particularly under the government of the People's Republic of China, because you can divorce it from all of the kind of burden and implications of the imperial period. And the communist government wanted people to express modern ideals in artwork. And so the panda was a way to do that. Wow. How and why does the panda go from a gift in 1972 to a loan today? It was very clear to the Chinese government, this is a really powerful diplomatic tool.

And it subsequently gave pandas to several other countries, including the UK and France and Spain and Mexico. But in 1983, there was a bamboo flowering. And that sounds like a lovely thing, but it actually means that a whole hillside of bamboo dies off. It flowers and then dies off. It's part of the natural life cycle. The problem for pandas is that they eat bamboo, and if a whole hillside of bamboo dies, it's hard for them to find food. There was concern that this might lead to panda starvation in the wild. And as a result, the government thought we shouldn't be giving away our pandas. But because panda diplomacy was so popular and beneficial, they decided that they would loan pandas to other countries.

This is also during the 1980s when China is opening up. You have Deng Xiaoping's market reforms. And so this concept of bringing in money was very much welcomed by China as well. So they started this thing called short-term loans. It was, however, not good for the individual pandas because it put the individuals under a lot of stress and came under tremendous criticism by animal experts. And so that was brought to an end first in the United States in the early 90s and replaced with the model that occurs presently, which is the long-term scientific exchange loan. And a loan, unlike a gift, comes with terms. Is there money involved? Yes. The terms include quite an expensive loan fee, and that ranges from $500,000 to a million dollars.

Wow. A year? A year. And then the agreement is that it's a long-term loan, so it's a 10-year agreement. So when a zoo signs up for this type of agreement, they're committing easily $10 million over the course of 10 years to send to China for the sake of this loan. When does panda diplomacy begin to stop working? Panda diplomacy, yes. Even with these terms, you have to send back the cubs, you have to pay a lot of money. The model generally works quite well.

But it stops working when things go awry. Most recently in the United States, there is concern at the Memphis Zoo on the part of both animal activists in the United States and Chinese netizens about the treatment of the pandas in the Memphis Zoo. Right now, the Memphis Zoo is responding to anger on social media centered around its two pandas, Lola and Yaya. Earlier today, pop superstar Billie Eilish showed her support for a petition which is demanding the two animals be sent back to China, alleging they're not being properly cared for. I can pretty much guarantee you that the panda is a very precious exhibit and wouldn't be mistreated. But it happened that, unfortunately for the Memphis Zoo, one of the pandas did die there due to a heart condition. And the other panda had a skin condition that was well known, but it made the panda look less than ideal in terms of having patchy fur and this type of thing. And so because

of that, what was very interesting about that is kind of brought together citizens of the United States and citizens of China, but they were brought together in opposition of the panda loan out of concern for the pandas. And as a result, there is a lot of objection to even panda diplomacy at all, if these precious animals might be in a situation where they wouldn't get ultimate care. What happens to the pandas when they get back to China? Do they have nice lives? Oh, yeah, they have good lives. They go to well-established breeding centers that are, generally speaking, in or near the natural habitat of the giant panda. And they're cared for by a slew of caretakers. The keepers' tasks during the day are aplenty.

They also have to clean the enclosures, displace of bamboo, and prepare meals for the 30 pandas. Do you think the era of panda diplomacy is over? We've all become a bit too cynical and savvy and the world is too complex. I don't think that panda diplomacy is over. I think that panda diplomacy is alive and well, but I think that it's shifting a bit. I'm confident that it's not over because it's still actively present in other countries. And so very recently, China sent a pair of pandas to Qatar to accompany their hosting of the World Cup. Pandas in Germany and pandas in Russia.

So I think that panda diplomacy is alive and well. It's a very successful form of soft diplomacy because people adore the panda so much. But there is a shift taking place and you can see all of the pandas will be leaving the United States. They're leaving Scotland. The pandas in Australia are under question. They're scheduled to return back. I know that Australia recently has expressed a desire and hope that they'll be able to negotiate an extension or an exchange. The panda agreements that are coming to an end are all agreements that were established prior to Xi Jinping's taking office. And, you know, if you're thinking about this from his perspective, and maybe it's not him personally, but the perspective of the leadership, why would you want to have these important diplomatic touch points across the globe that are inherited from previous leadership when you have an opportunity to. But then it puts you in a very good position

for negotiating new agreements on your own terms that are part of your own legacy. And certainly China will be in a very good negotiating position with the United States if there are zero pandas in the United States. That's E. Elena Songster. Her book is called Panda Nation, the Construction and Conservation of China's Modern Icon. Today's episode was produced by Avishai Artsy. Avishai got to say goodbye to the pandas at the National Zoo before flying home to Los Angeles.

The show was edited by Matthew Collette, who quite literally pumped his fist in the air when the pandas left because he is not a fan of pandas. Serena Solon is our fact checker and Rob Byers is our engineer. I'm Noelle King. It's Today Explained.