Today, Explained - Cricketer-in-Chief

Episode Date: July 26, 2018

A thrice-married, nightclub-loving cricket star just won Pakistan’s election. Mehreen Zahra-Malik explains why the military backed Imran Khan and Brookings’ Madiha Afzal explains why democracy in Pakistan never seems to last long. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

You ever want to just turn your entire phone screen like a specific color, like maybe your favorite color is green, and you're like, man, this screen would look so much better if it were just totally green right now? There's an app for that. Turns out, it's Uber. You can learn more at uber.com slash moving forward. Here are a few things you need to know to understand the historic election that just happened in Pakistan. Pakistan is a young country. It's just a couple of weeks shy of 71 years old. It came into being because Muslims on the Indian subcontinent wanted their own country. They didn't want to be a part of India. And ever since, Pakistan's basically been beefing with India. And also struggling with democracy.

Just last year, the Prime Minister of Pakistan, Nawaz Sharif, was ousted by the country's Supreme Court. And a few weeks ago, he was thrown in prison for corruption. Which brings us back to yesterday's historic election. Well, it's a historic election because it marks only the second time that there's been a transfer of power from one civilian government to the next. It marks a little over 10 years since Pakistan has had direct military rule. There was a peaceful transfer of civilian government, which makes it a democratic milestone.

It makes it an important moment. Nareen Zahra Malik is a Pakistani journalist. Currently based in Lahore, Pakistan, where I'm covering the general election for The Guardian. And I haven't slept in 36 hours since polling began at 8 a.m. yesterday. That's insane. That's insane. I don't mean that I've since polling began at 8 a.m. yesterday. That's insane. That's insane. I don't mean that I've taken an hour-long nap.

I actually mean I have not slept. I'm running entirely on adrenaline. So was part of what made this election a milestone that the military sort of resisted the temptation to tip the scales? Well, in the run-up to the election, there have been widespread allegations of manipulation and pre-poll rigging by the military. Of course, the military denies this. The allegations are around the figure of Imran Khan, who now has a commanding lead in the election. And there are rumors and there's widespread allegations from human rights

defenders, from rival political parties and candidates of Imran Khan that the military worked to skew the election in his favor. Almost all major parties, other than Imran Khan's party, have come out and alleged rigging in various forms, whether it was to say voting materials were not provided properly or on time to voters or that there were irregularities reported during the counting process. So right now, the general sense is that there were irregularities. But one of the things that Imran Khan has said in his victory speech is that he will address all these rigging allegations and his government will facilitate investigations into them. And what he's saying is that, you know, I have fought against rigging myself. So there's no way I will stand for this. If there are

irregularities, I'll look into them. So Imran Khan has just declared victory, even though all the results aren't in yet. It looks like it's all but decided. What's his deal? Who is he? So Imran Khan's greatest achievement to date was winning Cricket Crazy Pakistan, the 1992 Cricket World Cup. That's up in the air, he's getting under it, this could be victory, it is! Pakistan win the World Cup, a magnificent performance in front of 87,000 people. Imran Khan is ready to side to victory. What a great victory. Then he built this really fantastic cancer hospital that he runs. And you know, for years, for about more than two decades, he's been this anti-corruption crusader, basically going

after Pakistan's old style dynasties. In my opinion, Pakistan is a country which is oozing with talent. It does not have a system, does not have institutions, does not have rule of law, has criminals running the country. For the last 20 plus years, he's just sort of prowled on the margins of Pakistani politics. He hasn't really been able to break through until the last election, 2013, when he had got enough seats to make the government in one of Pakistan's four provinces. That was five years ago. And then in the last five years, the head of the Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz, which is the outgoing ruling party, their leader was ousted from office over corruption charges and eventually has now been jailed for 10 years. So, I mean, that has kind of been a profound vindication of Imran Khan himself.

The strongest political leader in Pakistan is behind bars over corruption. So, you know, it's been a long journey, but it seems like, you know, his time has finally come. But he spent a long, long time just wandering in the political wilderness. Tell me a bit more about who came out to vote. I read in the lead up to the election that more young people than ever before were expected to vote this time. Were women out in strong numbers? Yeah, there were a lot of women. And in fact, you know, women made history by coming out to vote in places

where they've never voted before, such as, you know, in South Waziristan and North Waziristan, Pakistan's tribal areas. So there was that. There were lots of young people out there. I was on the streets of Lahore and there were lots of enthusiastic young people. A lot of differently abled people kept showing up all day at polling stations around the country. We had a group of wrestlers coming to cast their vote. And at one polling station

in Faisalabad, a groom left his own wedding and came to cast his vote. And you know, he was in his like, he was in his wedding suit, you know. So, yeah, all those kinds of, you know, colorful scenes were there. It's interesting. On one hand, you've got all these women and young people and a couple of wrestlers voting in Pakistan. But on the other side, there was tons of violence, right? I mean, I read that hundreds and hundreds of people were killed leading up to this election. Right. This election has been called one of the bloodiest elections in Pakistan's history. So on polling day itself, there was an attack in Quetta, which is in the southwestern Balochistan province, where at least 32 people were killed. It was claimed by Islamic State. It was a suicide bomber. And then there were clashes between

different political parties at polling stations in which two people were killed. Three army soldiers were also killed in Balochistan while they were taking, you know, voting materials to a polling station. They were ambushed and they were killed. There's been a great deal of violence in the run up of the election as well. We had one of the deadliest attacks, in fact, in Pakistan's history. More than 150 people were killed in an attack on a campaign event. So yes, it's been a poll that has been stained with blood, no doubt. You know, you talk about flawed elections and the democratic process. I mean, here we are in the United States, we've got some election problems ourselves. But I mean, I just wonder what it feels like for people who are looking towards

a future of more democracy democracy with all these allegations that the military was heavily involved here and heavily playing in favor of Imran Khan? Do people feel like this was a step towards more democracy or sort of a failed attempt to solidify democracy in Pakistan? Look, I definitely think that this election represents a milestone, but it represents a milestone with serious, you know, and very strong caveats. Like I said, we're ushering in a decade of uninterrupted civilian rule. And though there have been rampant allegations of this meddling by the army, the fact of the matter is that the process has taken place, right? Democracy in Pakistan is not perfect. I would not say that Pakistan has taken a step back with this election. Even for people

who oppose Imran Khan, I think the fact that this election has taken place is a step forward. And I think that these allegations of rigging, you know, let this be the first test for Imran Khan. In his speech, he said he's going to investigate them. So, you know, the people of Pakistan need to hold him up to that and make sure that he does that. And then, you know, I think we can really say that something good has happened in this country.

I'm not going to say at all that democracy is a lost cause in Pakistan. The most complicating factor in Pakistani democracy is the military. It takes over, over and over. It's basically in power even when it isn't. That's next on Today Explained. Mid-show reminder that Uber is moving forward. One of the ways they're moving forward is by developing new features to take the stress out of your pickup. One of the features is called pickup notes. You

can write a note to your driver before they pick you up and say, hey, here's an easier way to find me. You could say like, I'm the guy sitting on a stack of Encyclopedia Britannica's because I don't know what else to do with them. Or I'm the person who looks like her name is Linda Rocky and it's my birthday. Happy birthday, Linda. To find out more about pickup notes and all the other ways Uber is moving forward, you can go to uber.com slash moving forward. How many times has Pakistan in its just 71-year history alternated between democracy and military rule? Yeah, okay.

So it starts democracy. Semi-democracy in the sense that it's an indirectly elected government, but yeah, figuring it out, but starts as somewhat of a democracy. Got it. 58, military starts as somewhat of a democracy. Got it. 58, military takes over. Nice. 1971 becomes a democracy. Okay.

77, military takes over. Got it. 88 becomes a democracy, cycles through four governments. In 99, again, the military takes over. Got it. 2008 becomes a democracy again. Okay. Looks like democracy is here to stay for the foreseeable future in kind of letter. Yeah. But the military is still hovering.

Malia Afzal teaches about Pakistan. She writes about Pakistan and she researches Pakistan. She published a book this year called Pakistan Under Siege, Extremism, Society, and the State. And she swung by our studio on a very busy day to explain why democracy never seems to last very long in the country. So democracy in Pakistan goes through these cycles where at the beginning there are huge hopes for democracy. And by the end of that democratic period, the hopes are dashed and people look to the military as the savior that will save them and deliver a more prosperous Pakistan. But interestingly, even military rule goes through that cycle. So at the end of military rule as well, there is kind of this perception that, oh, the military has really messed things up. However, I will say that for the last 10 years, it's been pretty clear that citizens of Pakistan,

they don't want direct military rule. They want a democracy. What do Pakistanis think of the army? The army is very venerated in Pakistan because it doesn't tolerate criticism. And so on television channels, you can't actually say anything bad about the army. So is it venerated or is it just illegal to not venerate the army? I mean, it's a little bit of both. It's a little bit of both, but it kind of maintains this aura of sort of moral superiority and supremacy as well. And it has relinquished power several times.

And it has relinquished power several times. But the military controls a significant chunk of Pakistan's land, for instance. So it has really enriched itself over the years, especially its leadership ranks through its control of the country's, you know, prime neighborhoods in cities and a lot of land and even some industry. It owns sugar mills and such. But the military isn't in power right now, right? Yeah. So the military has not been in direct power since 2007. The military still, though, over these last 10 years has essentially controlled all security and foreign policy for the country. And it wants to keep doing so.

You know, it's realized that it is in its benefit not to control the country's economy, for instance, but to just control the two things that it cares most about, the security and foreign policy, and that maintain its supremacy, right? If you can sort of maintain the specter of continual war with India, you're powerful. Who's in charge of the Pakistani military right now? So the chief of army staff is a man named Kamar Javed Bajwa. And what does he want for the country? Does he want democracy? You know, the military is a very savvy institution. So, I mean, they run security agencies and then they also have this public relations wing that is constantly putting out statements and dominating the country's narrative.

And so they'll say that we want democracy in the country and they'll produce like these slickly produced videos and so on. So to kind of control their own narrative. However, with Kamar Javed Bajwa, what we have seen is that behind the scenes, the military has pushed back on anybody trying to curtail their power. So Nawaz Sharif in 2016 tried to foster a good relationship with India, in particular with Modi. They met. And on the first day in office, Mr. Modi has been meeting the Pakistani prime minister. Now, looking at the past few years, relations between India and Pakistan have not really been cordial ever since the Mumbai attacks happened about seven years ago. The military didn't like that.

Yeah. Then Nawaz Sharif also pushed back against the military giving sanctuary to non-state militant groups in Pakistan, like the Lashkar-e-Tayyiba and the Haqqani Network. And he sort of, you know, insinuated that he wanted less of that or no more of that. Okay. And the military really made him push back at that, you know, apologize for that and then deny that he said that at the same time. I mean, that incident, that is widely considered to be what made Nawaz Sharif sort of unpalatable in the eyes of the military.

Okay. And then the corruption scandal against him came out soon after that. Last year, the so-called Panama Papers dump revealed that Sharif's children own expensive properties in London, and that led to an investigation into his family. Today, the Supreme Court also ordered a separate trial to look at the finances of Sharif and his adult children, one of whom was being groomed as his successor. And he was gone by mid-2017. And so both the chief of army staff, Sharif and Bajwa, may have played a role. And now with this election, what's the likelihood that the new prime minister can control the military versus maybe the military controlling the new prime minister?

So it looks very likely that Imran Khan is going to be Pakistan the new prime minister. So it looks very likely that Imran Khan is going to be Pakistan's new prime minister. And so the military likes him because he doesn't say anything bad about the military. And also, he doesn't threaten their kind of fundamental ideological vision of Pakistan. The military says, our job is to protect Pakistan's ideological frontiers. They actually say that. And Imran Khan completely agrees with their ideological frontiers, that it's an Islamic country. And it doesn't look like he has any interest in fighting the military on the military's alleged sponsorship of non-state militant groups. He, in fact, has displayed some sympathy for some militant groups in Pakistan. And also,

he seems to be a much more inward looking politician, like he really kind of espouses the theory, Pakistan first, in my view. And so to the extent that he cares a lot less about foreign policy, the military can very easily control it. But in Pakistan, you can be on the in with the military and then be on the outs with the military, depending on, you know, if you're trying to spread your wings too far. So Nawaz Sharif actually was a protege of the military dictators when he first came into power in 1985. And it is only in this previous, these last five years that he tried to spread his wings and the military turned against him. So to the extent that if years that he tried to spread his wings and the military turned against him. So to the extent that if Imran Khan wants to spread his wings, they will have no problem turning against him.

However, my sense is he has wanted power for so long. He has wanted to be prime pretty rosy relationship where the civilian government controls domestic policy as it relates to the economy and social services and the military controls the important stuff. No, foreign policy and security policy. So what does that mean for the future of democracy in Pakistan? Did it just get a little stronger, a little weaker, stay the same? I think it got a little weaker because the 2013 election had no real allegations of pre-poll manipulation about who gets on the ballot the way that this election has had, right? So the idea is that this election, you know, the military was really trying to bring Imran Khan into power.

So this election will have a cloud over it from the pre-poll rigging, as well as, you know, I think from the post-poll rigging, given that so many of Pakistan's established politicians are arguing that there has been some kind of rigging. The nice thing, though, is that voter turnout has been good. You know, there are a lot of polling stations where women had not even turned out to vote in 2013, where they turned out to vote. So there are definitely a lot of positive stories that emerged out of the voting. It's just that the overall election right now has much more of a cloud over it than the previous two elections dead. Maria Afzal is a fellow at the Brookings Institution here in Washington, D.C.

I'm Sean Ramos-Verm. This is Today Explained. I explained. Uber's whole thing right now is moving forward. One of the ways they're doing it is by adding features to take the stress out of pickup. One of the features is just turning your phone screen a whole different solid color so you can hold up your phone in a crowd or when it's dark and your driver can see you. You can learn more at uber.com slash moving forward.