Today, Explained - Forgetful old men

Episode Date: February 13, 2024

Joe Biden’s age and mental acuity are center stage after a Justice Department prosecutor described him as an “elderly man with a poor memory.” Vox reporter Christian Paz explains why Democrats are stuck with him. This episode was produced by Miles Bryan and Jesse Alejandro Cottrell, edited by Matt Collette, fact-checked by Laura Bullard with help from Avishay Artsy, engineered by Patrick Boyd, and hosted by Noel King. Transcript at vox.com/todayexplained Support Today, Explained by making a financial contribution to Vox! bit.ly/givepodcasts Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

It's Today Explained, and let's start with some facts. Both men running to be president of these United States are elderly. They do elderly people things. They forget where they are, forget what they're talking about, forget what they've promised, claim they've recently talked to long-dead people. But it's only really hurting one of them. Mr. President, voters have concerns about your age. How are you going to assuage them?

I do hear that this report is only going to fuel further concerns about your age? Only by some of you. Memory, turn your face to the moonlight. Donald Trump, who this week cheerfully encouraged Russia to attack America's NATO allies, is not hurting. He's leaning in. He's playing memory from cats at his rallies. He's yelling about sleepy not hurting. He's leaning in. He's playing memory from cats at his rallies. He's yelling about sleepy Joe Biden. And it's working. Polls show his incoherence is not hurting him the way it's hurting Biden. Coming up.

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BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. What do you think today explained us? I don't know. I'm Noelle King. Special Counsel Robert Herr was tasked with answering this question. Should President Biden be charged for taking classified materials from the White House? Herr's report runs 300 pages, and his recommendation was no, don't charge the president. The reason is right there on page six.

And that is what has caused so many problems for Joe Biden. Christian Paz is covering the 2024 election for Vox. What we were hearing first was this theoretical reason for why the special counsel wouldn't charge Biden with a crime because he didn't think that he'd be able to make the case convincingly to a jury that there was willful intent behind that because Biden would be able to portray himself as a elderly man with a bad memory. In the report, Herr, who is a Republican, makes several critical observations about Biden's memory,

saying it appears to have significant limitations. The report includes one instance where Biden was interviewed and was not able to remember when he was vice president. Another when Biden was unable to recall when his son Beau died. And then you have that come out. The White House realizes it has to respond. President Biden goes out in the evening to make a press statement where he forcefully pushes back at the special counsel's allegations. I'm well-meaning and I'm an elderly man and I know what the hell I'm doing. I've been president. I put this country back on its feet. I don't need his recommendation. How bad is your memory and can you continue as president? My memory is so bad I let you speak. And then trips up once he opens up the conversation for questions from the press.

He mixes up the president of Mexico with the president of Egypt. Initially, the president of Mexico, Osisi, did not want to open up the gate to allow humanitarian material to get in. I talked to him. And this all kind of contributes to that day's perception of a president who seemed overwhelmed, not at 100% capacity, and kind of builds on some of the stories we'd heard earlier in the week of the president speaking to donors or at private campaign events, where he mentioned presidents and leaders of foreign countries who are no longer alive and talked about having had conversations with them in the past few years when they were not around. During a recent campaign stop, Biden referenced a meeting he had

with Mitterrand from Germany after being elected. One small problem, actually a couple of small problems. Mitterrand was the French president and he died in 1996. Hey, Christian, why do you think this special counsel report was such a moment for so many voters? I mean, these stories about Joe Biden's memory, his mental acuity, they've been around for a while now, like years. And yet this felt like something different. This felt like maybe a step too far. What do you think happened? I think it's a combination of it being both that somebody finally said it very clearly, that this is something that was observed, right? And then there's also the other factor that it's very reminiscent of what happened in 2016 with Hillary Clinton and her email scandal

and FBI Director James Comey and that investigation. If we remember in 2016, the email scandal had been following Hillary Clinton around for most of the campaign. We're getting a look at the emails that reportedly triggered that FBI investigation into Hillary Clinton's personal email servers and whether there was classified information in those emails and it was mishandled during her time as Secretary of State. And it wasn't until the FBI and the Justice Department said they were going to actually investigate that issue, whether there was breaking of the law in the way that Hillary Clinton had handled official government business, that the press found an actual substantive reason to push the campaign more seriously on that, to ask those questions, to report on it.

You were the official in charge. Did you wipe the server? What, like with a cloth or something? I don't know. You know how it works digitally. Did you try to wipe the whole server? I don't know how it works digitally at all. The email issue contributed to this bigger idea that the Democratic candidate just wasn't as authentic or wasn't being as forthright as she could be. And it confirmed a lot of the suspicions that voters had. So when it was covered in the news, it just confirmed some of those underlying concerns that they had. And it mirrors a little bit of what we're seeing in 2024, which is instead of this idea of whether or not you

trust Joe Biden to be authentic, it's whether you think that Joe Biden is too old. And so I draw this parallel to 2016 because it was in July of that year that James Comey and the FBI finished their investigation. Although there is evidence of potential violations of the statutes regarding the handling of classified information, our judgment is that no reasonable prosecutor would bring such a case. But then you come to October of that year, the October surprise, and it's the FBI saying that they're going to reopen this investigation. The FBI now says it will review emails that appear to be pertinent to its investigation into the Hillary Clinton email scandal. This comes just

11 days before election day. And now the trustworthiness issue comes back. Obviously, this October surprise hasn't happened here in 2024, but it's definitely something that people are thinking about. It's definitely something that the Biden campaign is probably drafting up some kind of plan should something happen. But it's not hard to imagine that a president as old as President Biden could have some kind of health issue come up between now and the election. Donald Trump, candidate Trump, is also an elderly man with a poor memory. He cannot seem to remember who Nancy Pelosi is. By the way, they never report the crowd on January 6th. You know, Nikki Haley, Nikki Haley, Nikki Haley, you know, they... He is at times forgotten where he is, like what city he'saley, Nikki Haley, Nikki Haley, you know, they, he is at times forgotten where he is, like what city he's in, what state he's in. Very big hello to a place where we've done very well. Sioux Falls. Thank you very much, Sioux Falls. So Sioux City, let me ask you, how many people come, how many people come from Sioux City?

How many people? Democrats are really bothered by Biden's memory. Are Republican voters really bothered by Donald Trump's memory? They're not. And it's interesting to see how they're not really talking about him in terms of being too old. And I feel like part of it, when you look at some of the polling, it's he's also associated with terms that have to do with strength. And a lot of that builds from the persona that he's always had. He's always been boisterous, bombastic. He's never been one to really care for minutia or details. And so it may be easier for some Republican primary voters and members of the Republican base to look past it or not even consider the age question with Donald Trump because it's all kind of priced into his persona

and into how he speaks in public and presents himself. He already, I mean, people who remember him being president, he already often did not make sense some of the time Trump. It was like hard to follow. It's like, wait, what is he saying? So the issue that I hear you laying out here is that Democrats don't want to vote for Biden because of his poor memory. Republicans don't care. They're like, this is just who Trump is. And therefore, even though both of these men seem to be suffering from the same thing, only one of them is going to struggle among their base to convince people. You can still vote for me. I'm okay.

That's absolutely true. I think it's interesting to see that part of the reason for this is because the Republican coalition is not as fractured as the Democratic coalition is. The big divide among the Republican Party right now is, are you with Trump or against Trump? And it's not really a 50-50 question, it's like a 80-20 question. The side that is anti-Trump is much smaller. On the Democratic side, there are just so many more reasons for fractures to emerge, whether it's the president not being progressive enough, not being moderate enough, whether it's the age question, whether it's pining for a different generation of leadership.

And so when you break it down like that, it makes sense that the age question would be a bigger factor on the Democratic side because there are already more reasons to be skeptical of Biden. And then there's this overarching concern that almost everyone seems to have. Vox's Christian pause. Now, right after the Her report, that special counsel's report was released, ABC News and Ipsos conducted a poll. 86% of Americans they polled say Joe Biden is too old to be president. 59% say both candidates are too old to be president. But it's clear why the Republican Party is sticking with Trump.

The voters want him. If you've wondered why Democrats have to stick with Joe Biden, well, have we got a story for you. Support for Today Explained comes from Aura. Aura believes that sharing pictures is a great way to keep up with family, and Aura says it's never been easier thanks to their digital picture frames. They were named the number one digital photo frame by Wirecutter. Aura frames make it easy to share unlimited photos and videos directly from your phone to the frame. When you give an Aura frame as a gift, you can personalize it, you can preload it

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listeners and available just in time for the holidays. Terms and conditions do apply. Support for this show comes from the ACLU. The ACLU knows exactly what threats a second Donald Trump term presents, and they are ready with a battle-tested playbook. The ACLU took legal action against the first Trump administration 434 times. And they will do it again to protect immigrants' rights, defend reproductive freedom, fight discrimination, and fight for all of our fundamental rights and freedoms. This Giving Tuesday, you can support the ACLU. With your help, they can stop the extreme Project 2025 agenda. Join the ACLU at aclu.org today. It's Today Explained. I'm Noelle King. Is it too late to replace Joe Biden? Ask the headlines and everyone at my hair salon and Uber drivers and probably many people in your life, too. And here is V two big, broad reasons why. The first one has to do with literal practical

reasons why it's too late. The nomination process is well underway. And to win the nomination, a candidate needs to win the support of a majority of delegates that are available to win 1,969 of the 3,936 delegates that are available. Up until now, there's been about 91 delegates that have been assigned based off of how folks have voted in South Carolina. And President Biden is one step closer to securing his party's nomination after winning the South Carolina primary on Saturday. And in Nevada, he will claim the state's 36 pledges to delegates. Both places where Joe Biden won about 90 percent or more of the vote. And so that's why I say that it's a little too late in the practical sense, because up until now,

there isn't anyone who's registered on the ballot in those primary states other than Joe Biden and in some places, Dean Phillips, and in some places, Marianne Williamson. But it seems like Joe Biden is on track to win more than the majority, right? And going through to March, past Super Tuesday and a bunch of the other big states that are having their primaries in March, it doesn't look like there's anyone other than Joe Biden who is a serious candidate on those ballots. And so it's too late to register to get on the ballot in those states. And if you look, I think specifically, there are 44 states where the deadline has already passed to have that registration happen. So there isn't anyone who can jump in at this point, get on the ballot and compete with Joe Biden through that traditional nominating process.

Why didn't any brave Democrats who were aware a year ago that Joe Biden had problems with his memory, why didn't any of them say, I want a primary, put me on the ballot, I want a shot here? That speaks a little bit to some of the political reasons why it's too late. Also, it's because it's already historically difficult to challenge an incumbent for the nomination of their party. Every time that's happened in recent memory, it's gone poorly for that party by the end of the election. Carter and Kennedy shook hands, but Carter's team never forgave Kennedy for weakening their candidate in the battle against Ronald Reagan. After the loss to Reagan, the Democratic Party vowed never to self-destruct like that again. But the other reason for it being difficult is because the president is the incumbent, and that gives him the advantage of having selected the folks who run the Democratic Party.

And so it would mean that you would have to go against not just the president and the party apparatus that's there to support the president. It would also mean that you'd need to rally your own base of support. You'd need to raise so much money. And then you'd need to actually build a campaign operation out there. And that's not easy to do without the support of a party, without the support of big party donors. And even when you look at the Republican side, you had a contested election there also, right, with Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Tim Scott, etc. And they all slowly fell out of the race.

But they tried. They tried. They tried. It's like the Democrats have learned nothing about unprecedented times, which everyone says we're living in unprecedented times. We've always done it this way, so we're always going to do it this way. I don't know. It does make you wonder, right? I think another big reason is maybe there's just some political instinct that's different here,

where the folks that you would look at to be those challengers, governors like Gavin Newsom of California. But it's an interesting fact that GDP growth in California last year outpaced all red states in America. In fact, the fastest... Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan. This president has delivered, and that's why you see so many of my colleagues and me getting ready to help him win re-election. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania. He's a native of Pennsylvania. For a long time, he was our third senator. And as president, he's really deliberate to the commonwealth. They're all loyal Biden Democrats,

is the other thing here. There is no incentive for them to go against Joe Biden and for them to, you know, just incur a bunch of scorn from the party and from the base. It's also interesting to see that when you poll the Democratic Party, when you poll Democratic voters, Biden is still the top option, even if people are dissatisfied with him. And if they don't want him to be the nominee and they're asked, who would you rather have? People don't know who they would want. So even if you were to go with, theoretically, one of these other governors or senators, none of them have independently enough support to actually build an operation from. And then on top of that, there's all the theoretical polling that's being done also to see, hypothetically, if Gretchen Whitmer or Gavin Newsom were to run against Donald Trump,

how would things go? It turns out that Joe Biden still does the best. A new national poll shows Joe Biden beating Donald Trump in a hypothetical general election matchup. Biden leading Trump by six points, 50 percent to 44 percent among registered voters. The New York Times columnist Ross Douthat wrote over the weekend and others, others have said the same, that Joe Biden should stay in the race until the convention. He kind of has to, the way you've laid it out. And then Joe Biden should bow out of the race. And the idea is that would allow someone else to step in and be like, OK, I'm the person now who's going to run the Democrats to the end zone. Could that work?

I guess. But that kind of has to happen in a fantasy world that we are not in right now. I think we're forgetting that Joe Biden has said he wants to run for a second term. He hasn't given any indication that he's dropping out or that he wants to drop out. He has the entire Democratic Party apparatus working toward that. And in the primaries we've had so far, it looks like voters are willing to support him. And so it doesn't seem like that's actually something that might play out. Can you talk us through when Democrats meet and they do a little fantasizing of their own about, Joe Biden says, the time has come for me to step aside and the Democrats have to go looking for

someone else. Can you talk to me about who some of these folks might be? The names that have been coming up have either been folks who've shown that they're very progressive and consistently progressive. So in my mind, that is the lane occupied by Gavin Newsom in California. As governor, he's been the leader of the biggest Democratic state. He's handily beat back recall efforts and won re-election. And he spent a lot of the last year essentially campaigning for Biden, being a surrogate that's willing to go up against Ron DeSantis, go on Fox News. I will take Joe Biden at 100 versus Ron DeSantis any day of the week.

Go to the Republican debate and be in the spin room to defend Biden's record. And it's no secret that he kind of aspires to the presidency at some point. But for now, I think he's made a calculation that it makes more sense to play the role of loyal foot soldier and loyal, you know, frontline defender of Biden than to challenge Biden. Then you have the kind of candidate that's cooked up in a lab, which is popular governor of a important swing state who has won many close or won a few close elections and has been able to govern popularly. And that is the lane that's

occupied by the governors of Michigan and Pennsylvania, Gretchen Whitmer and Josh Shapiro. And they're both really popular in their states. They've won really tight races. Gretchen Whitmer led the Democratic Party in Michigan to not only win and hold the governor's mansion, but also to win a bunch of other statewide races and flip control of the legislature, which is a pretty big accomplishment. A momentous night for Michigan Democrats. Democrats secured control of the House and Senate for the first time in nearly four decades. And then you have kind of a realm of candidates who have either run before or who could be future options because they've done a good job at their assignments right now, and that is the Pete Buttigieg category of folks who maybe they're not as ideological,

but they understand how government works. And then there's Gina Raimondo, the current U.S. Secretary of Commerce and the former governor of Rhode Island. I think our economic priorities are clear. Ensuring that the United States builds the talent, technologies, and manufacturing capabilities necessary to lead the global economy. And then you have the other realm of like Joe Manchin,

senator from West Virginia who's not running for re-election, who's floated the idea of maybe running as a third party. Let's speculate about a really bad situation that I want to be clear we're not wishing on anyone. Let's say Joe Biden really is incapacitated by a stroke, for example, or a bad fall, which at his age are not unheard of. Is there anything in the convention rules that could require a new candidate or allow a new candidate if there was a very serious Biden health event? There are contingencies. It's never happened before, right, in the modern era for us to have to go through this. But the default would be that the party would end up supporting Kamala Harris.

You think you just fell out of a coconut tree? You exist in the context of all in which you live and what came before you. The funny thing about Kamala Harris is that she is also frequently incoherent. I'm saying that in a fun way because she's, you know, she's young. What do we know about Kamala Harris's numbers if she's put in hypothetical polling against Trump? You're saying none of these other Democratic names would have a shot at beating him.

Does polling suggest that Harris is somehow different? The polling actually does show that Harris does the least worse. One of my sources has done a lot of analysis of head-to-head polls of these different candidate options versus Trump. And it turns out that yes, Kamala Harris does underperform Joe Biden a bit, but she does better than Gavin Newsom, for example, would do. And so we're doing all this thinking about, yeah, there's this generic Democratic candidate who everyone wants, who people would be more enthusiastic about than Joe Biden. But when you actually look through to see who that would be, who the options that we

have are, if you're a Democrat, it's not that much better than going with Kamala Harris. Christian Paz, who's covering election 2024 for Vox. Today's episode was produced by Miles Bryan and Jesse Alejandro Cottrell. It was edited by Matthew Collette, in fact, checked by Laura Bullard and Avishai Artsy. Patrick Boyd is our engineer. And I'm Noelle King. It's Today Explained. Thank you.