Today, Explained - How the Taliban took back Afghanistan

Episode Date: August 16, 2021

And did it faster than the US ever imagined. Transcript at vox.com/todayexplained. Support Today, Explained by making a financial contribution to Vox! bit.ly/givepodcasts Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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And for the first time, President Biden addressed the country about it today. I stand squarely behind my decision. After 20 years, I've learned the hard way that there was never a good time to withdraw U.S. forces. After the Taliban seized Kabul in a matter of hours and people rushed to evacuate the country, Biden admitted that the withdrawal didn't go as planned. The truth is, this did unfold more quickly than we had anticipated. But he also said that the U.S. couldn't fight another country's civil war,

and that Afghanistan is back under Taliban control because Afghan forces didn't fight hard enough. We gave them every chance to determine their own future. What we could not provide them was the will to fight for that future. Even if Biden wasn't willing to invest more in a war that has stretched on for 20 years, the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan still has people wondering, did America's longest war really have to end like this? Well, it wasn't supposed to end nicely.

I mean, everyone knew that when U.S. and foreign troops left Afghanistan, it was going to be brutal and nasty and awful. Alex Ward is a national security reporter at Politico. In fact, U.S. intelligence assessments were very clear about this. A U.S. official confirms that a military assessment suggests the capital could fall in 90 days. But that it took a matter of days, that's the part that's really stunned people. And that's why we're all sort of going, wait, what happened here? What's going on? And why is there such chaos?

And the chaos is because we went from having an Afghan government nominally in charge to a complete Taliban takeover in just over a week. And just last year, the Taliban in the U.S. signed a peace deal, right? Under the deal, the U.S. and NATO say that they'll pull out all foreign troops within 14 months if the Taliban honors its part of the agreement. And that includes a 135-day initial period to reduce violence. I mean, what was the point of that if this happened before the U.S. officially completed its withdrawal?

It was supposed to stop a Taliban military takeover, which we've just seen. And they, you know, took Kabul really without firing a bunch of shots. It seems like there were a couple of guns ringing out, but not the kind of devastating fighting that many expected. And the Taliban paid lip service to the peace process. Yes, you know, we don't want a military takeover. We're totally into a negotiated process. And clearly they weren't, right? I mean, few people believe them,

including in the U.S. government, but they felt like it was worth a shot and that the military solution that had taken 20 years to play out wasn't going to work. I mean, it was possible that the Taliban would be in government, right? That there would be a negotiation between the Western-backed Afghan government and the Taliban, and there might be some Taliban members in the government and then some Afghan government officials would step down or something like that. That was still all up in the air. When did it become obvious that this was not going to be a slower, controlled

withdrawal from Afghanistan and that it was game over for the U.S. and the Taliban had control? This was always imminent, but the speed of it is what's really shocking. They took over Zaranj, a provincial capital on the border with Iran, and that was the first like, oh, wait a minute, you know, the Taliban's making its move now. It is a small province. It's a desert province, but still significant. The Taliban have taken a provincial capital. But even then, and that was like just over a week ago, no one expected that they would take over Kabul. People sort of thought that longer term fight was starting and that we would see horrible scenes on the front pages of newspapers or on cable news of long-term fighting after the U.S. had abandoned, little did we expect that the

Taliban would take, you know, tens of provincial capitals, including the second and third largest cities, with fighting and with some resistance, but mostly without. Town after town has fallen this week in a series of stunning victories for the Taliban. The governor was on his way to the airport as police and military arrived ready to surrender. A bunch of Afghan troops just sort of put down their arms and went away or they made side deals and sort of said, like, sure, Taliban, take over. It's happened nearly everywhere. The Afghan state has collapsed. That seems to have been the miscalculation on the U.S. end. It wasn't that the Taliban campaign was starting. It was that it was just basically ending, that the Taliban had already spent a lot of time making side deals and talking with people

around cities or in pre-positioning. So Afghan troops and civilians and others would kind of go, it's not worth the fight. So the war was sort of lost already well before the withdrawal. But even afterward, there was hope that the Afghan military would stand up and fight and sort of protect their nation and fight for their government. But the Taliban had already gotten rid of that option. How did Kabul fall so quickly? I mean, this was the Afghan government's home. The Taliban was effectively at the gates of Kabul and sent some representatives in to talk to government officials in Kabul. And then they sort of started advancing. And President Ashraf Ghani left. His team fled. This is one of the linchpins for the Taliban to formally and sort of officially take over in Kabul, take over the Taliban. And then the Taliban said, hey, you know,

we're going to come in to handle some looting and, you know, take care of a security situation, which, of course, was a pretext to just go into Kabul and take over. And then we saw images on Al Jazeera of the Taliban in the presidential palace. Taliban fighters placing their guns on the desks, sitting behind, you know, in the meeting rooms, in the president's office. They were clearly in charge. And part of that is because, you know, Ghani, again, the president, who, by the way, had said he would, you he would die for his nation, that he would never abandon his people, left. And he said that he'd left in order to avoid that kind of bloodshed. But the Taliban had what it needed, which was people not willing to fight against them and the drive to take over the country as quickly as possible. And their plan worked off flawlessly.

And needless to say, it is one of the most stunning guerrilla campaigns in world history. Let's just think about this for a moment, right? An insurgent group that was in power two decades ago came back to power two decades later against a Western-backed government that had, on paper, more power. It is a stunning development of like world historical proportions. And what's left of the Afghan security forces who were supposed to prevent exactly this from happening? They're members of Afghan society now. I mean, or they've joined the Taliban or, you know, they're leaving. Let's put it this way. The state of Afghanistan that we should say was really mostly in charge of Kabul, right?

I mean, they did have some influence outside of the capital city, but really didn't have the legitimacy around the country that anyone had hoped it would. Like all those institutions are gone, right? The Taliban's in charge now. They're the ones that have to pick up the trash. They're the ones that have to do foreign relations. They're the ones that have to collect taxes. They're in charge now.

And President Biden promised that the U.S. exit would not look like the 1975 exit from Saigon. And yet this tragedy is still invoking those comparisons. They're making that comparison because it is yet another American war in which the U.S. was involved in despite no real chance of winning, that it took way too long, and that we're leaving with our tail between our legs. We're not even like back at square one. We're back at square zero. Because, you know, before the U.S. went in, Afghanistan was terrible, right? I mean, the Taliban ruled, but everyone sort of had that state of play of what life was like. People lived in that status quo as awful as it was. Now, even though the U.S. and the West did not necessarily make Afghanistan that much better,

there were some improvements. Some people did taste a sense of more liberty. Women did feel more free. Society did modernize a little bit. And now the Taliban is back to take it all away. We gave Afghanistan some hope, and then all that hope is gone. And what happens to a bunch of people who felt hope and now have maybe no hope left? That could be a very dangerous situation. All that's really left to do at this point is hide, stay or get out of Afghanistan if you want to leave. How exactly is the U.S. trying to facilitate those evacuations? They're scrambling.

Let's not mince words here. The U.S. government had months and months and months to prepare for the evacuation of Afghans that served alongside the U.S. in the war, for Afghan service members, for Americans in Afghanistan. And it wasn't until really like a couple days ago that the State Department reached out to organizations that are helping Afghans get out and try to get these special visas. It's chaos. It's madness. And it's leading to the kinds of horrid scenes we're seeing at Kabul airport of, you know, Afghans and others just flooding the airport and just trying to literally catch on moving planes to catch a flight out of there. And it's led to like an administrative nightmare.

There will be Afghans and there will be people that fought alongside the U.S. who will be left behind. This is the Taliban's fault, but it is also America's fault for not working long enough and hard enough to get these people out. And they will probably die at the hands of the Taliban or others. I'm talking to activists who are in touch with these people. And these people are getting messages saying, please help me. Like, I'll sell my house. I'll do whatever it takes. And now it is true the Biden administration is taking it seriously, but it's too little too late. Last week, Today explained talk to an Afghan interpreter who was embedded with the U.S. Army, Ismail Khan. A few years ago, he got a visa to the U.S. and American citizenship, but he wasn't able to bring his family with him. After the fall of Kabul, we called him up to see how they're doing.

I have been crying for the last two, three days. I cannot believe what happened. My family is in hideout in Afghanistan, but for their safety, I cannot disclose where they are. They're really afraid. Things are dramatically changed. The Taliban are going door to door and looking for people. They will go after every single one who works with the U.S. forces and their family. They are not going to forgive them. Some of my brothers are eligible for U.S. visa. They are eligible to come in here. I believe they will come to the U.S. I have faith.

It's a slow process. There is nothing that I see right now. I'll not give up. I'll try every day to make sure that they make it here. I don't know if anyone saw the video that they are jumping on C-17 wings to go to safety. And when the plane takes off, there are three, four of them, they drop down from like 500, 600 meters from the sky. That's a heartbreaking thing. And the entire world is watching. And the Afghans are dying. So this would be the lesson for the entire world is watching, and Afghans are dying.

So this would be the lesson for the entire world, and this would be a lesson for Afghans to make sure to think 10 times before they step up and help U.S. government in the future. Afghan politicians and U.S. politicians, they're responsible for the mess. They should be ashamed of themselves. After the break, how the Taliban took Afghanistan back after 20 years of fighting. Support for Today Explained comes from Ramp. Ramp is the corporate card and spend management software designed to help you save time and put money back in your pocket. Ramp says they give finance teams unprecedented control and insight into company spend.

With Ramp, you're able to issue cards to every employee with limits and restrictions and automate expense reporting so you can stop wasting time at the end of every month. And now you can get $250 when you join Ramp. You can go to ramp.com slash explained. R-A-M-P.com slash explained. Cards issued by Sutton Bank. Member FDIC. Terms and conditions apply. The U.S. military is one of the most advanced and well-funded militaries in the world. It has spent 20 years and trillions of dollars in Afghanistan. It was supposed to be building an Afghan force that could fight the Taliban when the U.S. left. Alex, how was this force defeated in less than a month? Well, I don't think the U.S. left. Alex, how was this force defeated in less than a month? Well, I don't think the U.S. can explain it. It's really quite unexplainable. But I think what's

clear is that there are a lot of reasons for this. One is there was no real clear Afghan state to fight for. There's really no government to fight for in Afghanistan. Yes, there was Kabul, there was President Ghani and his advisors, but they weren't like really doing much throughout the country. And so you're asking these forces that the U.S. is trained to basically fight for the same reasons that, you know, the U.S. military would fight and that just wasn't there. Two, you know, let's be clear, like we did not train a phenomenal fighting force. That's not to denigrate the Afghans who have fought and died for their country and who did push back against the Taliban. And many commandos are great. Like,

they are really good Afghan fighters. But the full force was not there. In fact, there were even, you know, ghost troops, like numbers of soldiers on paper, but that actually weren't fighting. And there were some who just wanted to fleece the United States and Western money, right? Just take the money and kind of not do much. And the Taliban took advantage of this. Plus, they had longer, you know, stronger roots in the country. They knew what levers to pull. They knew what people to talk to. They knew where the power centers were. And they waited. They waited in the tall grass until it was clear to pounce. And they pounce, and they pounce really fast. And if you're the Afghan military and you don't have the reinforcements, you don't have the air support, you don't have the logistics or the U.S. and foreign forces that were really the backbone

of the fighting. They just didn't have the wherewithal to fight back. And so, of course, they gave up. Alex, was the U.S. trying to create this kind of professionalized military force that was in Afghanistan that was kind of in the vein of itself? I mean, what exactly were these Afghan security forces supposed to look like? They were supposed to be a force that could defend the government and fight the Taliban and, you know, help us against terrorists. Like, that was the goal. An adequate force with a professionalized structure, right? Officer enlisted, commands, commanders, civilian control. Like we were looking for all of that. An adequate force that could just keep the Taliban at bay and help us with terrorists.

So when the U.S. eventually left, there would be an Afghan state with a military to protect it. And we could leave. All of our assumptions were undergirded by that. First it was, we went in to fight terrorists and take out al-Qaeda and kill bin Laden. By destroying camps and disrupting communications, we will make it more difficult for the terror network to train new recruits and coordinate their evil plans. Then we turned it into, like, why don't we make Afghanistan a state good enough so we can leave? We will be continuing as a country to work with the Afghan government and the new Afghan

National Army to see that any areas where there is resistance to this government and to the coalition forces will be dealt with promptly and efficiently. And like the main part of that, outside of like create a good enough government, was create a good enough military. And we didn't create a good enough military or help build a good enough military. We built a paper tiger. So the U.S. spent trillions of dollars in about 20 years on the war in Afghanistan. Do we know where most of that money ended up going? No. No. Yes, it went to weapons that are now in Taliban hands. It went to the pockets of troops that may now be parts of the ranks of the Taliban. It, of course, went to U.S. defense contractors and, of course,

our own troops and our own fighting forces. It went to building and defending a base right outside of Kabul, Bagram, which is the most important for Afghanistan that we handed over to the Afghan military like a month ago and that is now already in Taliban hands. I mean, we effectively subsidized a new fighting force and materiel for the Taliban at this point. How does that happen? How does the U.S. end up supplying the Taliban with the very weapons it uses to retake control of Afghanistan? Look, we've done this before. You know, we gave weapons and money to the Mujahideen in the 70s to fend off the Soviets. And it was the same kind of materials that eventually were used to fight against the U.S. and the Afghan military in our

own war effort there. You know, as to how all this sort of transferred over to the Taliban, part of it was the Taliban made deals with regional governors and forces. They were just kind of like, hey, if you guys leave right now, literally leave, like go to another country or another area of the country, just leave the stuff behind, weapons, money, you know, just give that to us. People were like, yeah, fine, we're out. I mean, that's happened in a couple of places. Or of course, they just won it through war and fighting. And the other is just they were abandoned by the Afghan military. It was like, nah, screw this. I don't want to fight, right? I'm just going to leave my post. I'm going to go elsewhere. And so just stuff was hanging around

and the Taliban went, okay, thank you. And that's ours now. So they are now a stronger fighting force, not only because they are in charge of the country at this point, but because they have, you know, more advanced weaponry than they had at the beginning of this week-long siege. Alex, this war became so unpopular. It started under Bush. It was criticized by every president who followed. Who is ultimately going to be held responsible for this bungled withdrawal that has essentially resulted in the Taliban coming back into power 20 years after 9-11? I don't want to mince words here. There is no single individual or organization or country that's at fault. You know, in 20 years, there are a lot of mothers and fathers of failure.

But here are a couple I can just think of. Like, the people who need to look themselves in the mirror are, you know, the presidents who launched and prolonged an ill-fated war, you know, generals who assured us success was, like, always six months away, civilians who believed diplomacy and development would transform Afghan society, the intelligence analysts who missed the Taliban's true strength, the lawmakers who abdicated their oversight responsibility, the expert class who cheered on for their bloodshed, the activists who minimize the consequences of withdrawal. And like, look, we in the media for keeping Afghanistan off the front pages, and we constantly prioritize trivia over troops and battle zones. It's also on the Afghan

state for not taking the time that they were given, right? The two decades that they were given to try to build a better society and a better government. It's on us for believing that this project would work. It's on Pakistan for aiding the Taliban, even though they acted like victims of the war. So the damning conclusion for me is that you get a war like this and a failure like this, not because of one person, but because of sort of the general national security community and all of us involved. We all played a part in this failure.

We're all partially responsible. And if that's not a sort of a sad realization, that all of the parts together led to this, I don't know what is. Alex Ward is a national security reporter with Politico. You might know him from his past work as a reporter for Vox. I'm Halima Shah, filling in for Sean Romsforum, who will be back with us next week. It's Today Explained. you