Today, Explained - How the war in Gaza ends

Episode Date: January 18, 2024

Israel's war against Hamas has now been raging for over 100 days. According to Ian Lustick, professor emeritus at the University of Pennsylvania, history tells us what it will take to end it. This episode was produced by Isabel Angell and Amanda Lewellyn , edited by Amina Al-Sadi, fact-checked by Laura Bullard with help from Hady Mawajdeh and Haleema Shah, engineered by David Herman, and hosted by Sean Rameswaram. Transcript at vox.com/todayexplained Support Today, Explained by making a financial contribution to Vox! bit.ly/givepodcasts Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

It's another year, but we got the same wars. Hamas and Israel have been at it for 100 days as of this week. 100 days of hope and despair and hope again. 100 days that I enter Omar's room and tell him to be strong, and I pray. We got another deal to deliver humanitarian aid to Gazans. Qatar says it has brokered an agreement that would get medicine delivered to Israeli hostages in Gaza in exchange for medicine and humanitarian aid for Palestinian civilians. And the war continues to expand.

This was the fourth day of U.S. strikes in less than a week on Iran-backed Houthi militants who have been attacking merchant ships in the Red Sea. Before this spins further out of control, we wanted to ask how it could end. What would a permanent ceasefire look like? How would we get there? We found a guy who says he knows how this story ends. We're going to ask him to share on Today Explained. BetMGM, authorized gaming partner of the NBA, has your back all season long. From tip-off to the final buzzer,

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For 55 years or so, ever since I lived in Israel for six months in 1969. As a student then, I published my first article on what do West Bank Arabs really want, back in just two years after the Six-Day War. And I've been studying it professionally, working in the government, working in consulting, teaching ever since. Most recently, he wrote a piece for Time called History Tells Us How the Israel-Hamas War Will End. I have really been through so many of these wars. I remember the Six-Day War. I even remember the 56 War, the 73 War, the War of Attrition, 69-70, the Lebanon War in 1982, the Second Lebanon

War in 2006. And one of the things that all of them have in common, they don't end because Israel's announced war aims have been achieved. They end because a superpower orders Israel to stop. So that means I was pretty certain and still am certain that this war will end not when Israel's expanding list of war aims is accomplished, but when the United States, the reigning superpower, decides to turn on the red light. The professor postulates that none of this will stop until the United States says it should, which might seem kind

of like a head scratcher since the United States, by all accounts, is supporting Israel. We asked him for the history here. 1948, there was a civil war first between Israel and Palestinians for many months that resulted in the displacement of many Palestinians. And then Israel was created. And I therefore formally declare Israel admitted to membership in the United Nations. The British finally left and the Arab states invaded Palestine. That war continued until 1949. But there was a point Israel was in Sinai. It also was poised

to attack and capture the West Bank. In both cases, the decision was not to do it because the British threat to end the Jewish state altogether if Israel dared to attack the West Bank or did not withdraw from Sinai. After weeks of stalemate, the Suez Crisis bursts dramatically into the news again, for Israel has invaded Egypt. 1956, Israel, Britain and France attacked Egypt after Egypt signed an arms agreement with the Soviet Union and nationalized the Suez Canal. There was a quick war in which the British and the French were stopped, were forced to withdraw because the United States and the Soviet Union ordered them to. Israel was ordered out of the Sinai and out of the Gaza Strip in March 1957 by President Eisenhower. As it is the manifest right of any of these nations to take such decisions and actions,

it is likewise our right if our judgment so dictates, for we do not accept the use of force as a wise or proper instrument for the settlement of international disputes. Who told Ben-Gurion, Ben-Gurion initially his war aim was to never leave Sinai because that's where the Jewish people were created. Eisenhower told him, well, if you want to stay in the Sinai, you're not going to get any American ships visiting Eilat through the Gulf of Aqaba. Those were enough to get Israel out of Gaza and out of the Sinai. In 1967, Israel was faced with threats from Arab countries to attack, which seemed credible. Israel preemptively attacked and destroyed the Egyptian air forces

and took over the Sinai, took over the West Bank and took over the Golan Heights within five days. On the sixth day, the military was still fighting against Syria, wanted to expand the war and the United States and the UN told Israel, no, you have until two o'clock today to stop.

And the order was given by Defense Minister Dayan that even if the military commanders continued to fight, they would not even get any more air cover. On the 10th of June, Syria, the last Arab holdout, agreed to a ceasefire. The fighting was now stopped. After three weeks of wrestling with the Middle East, it's a real pleasure to come home tonight

to the peace and quiet of Texas politics. Israel. More than two years ago, there was a battle here. Grim reminders of that six-day fight still lie rusting near the borders. 1969-70, Israel was fighting on the canal and the Jordan River, the Suez Canal, a war of attrition, artillery exchanges and bombing that were taking a toll on Arab communities, Arab armies, but it was also on the Israeli army.

And this fighting continued through 69 and 70. In the summer of 1970, because the Soviets put 50,000 advisors in Egypt and a crisis was brewing between the United States and the Soviet Union over this, the United States put tremendous pressure on Israel in the summer of 1970. And Israel finally agreed to 242, to the resolution that other countries had agreed to after the Six-Day War that said that Israel would withdraw from territories captured in 67 as part of a peace agreement. Israel had refused to accept that because part of its coalition wouldn't go along with it.

Under American pressure, Menachem Begin's party, the right-wing party, left the coalition and Israel made peace and the war of attrition stopped. It is an all-out war. That's how Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Dayan describes an invasion of the Golan Heights and the east bank of the Suez by Syria and Egypt. In 73, that war continued after a few weeks. The Israeli army under Ariel Sharon crossed the Suez Canal into Egypt proper, into Africa, and was surrounding and was about to destroy the Third Army. The UN passed a ceasefire resolution, the UN Security Council, and that ordered Israel to stop on October 22nd. It did not stop. The United States was engaged again in a super-duper crisis with the Soviet Union.

We obtained information which led us to believe that the Soviet Union was planning to send a very substantial force into the Mideast, a military force. Our nuclear missiles were put on alert, yellow alert, and the United States ordered Israel immediately to stop fighting and return to the lines it had held on October 22nd and to allow resupply of the Egyptian Third Army. That's immediately what Israel did, and the war stopped. I think I could safely say that the chances for not just a ceasefire,

which we presently have, and which of course we have had in the Mideast for some time, but the outlook for a permanent peace is the best that it has been in 20 years. And we could go on with the 1982 Lebanon War, the 2006 Lebanon War, both of which involved ceasefire decisions by the UN or the United States and France imposed on Israel that funding these wars, even if the United States might want them to stop, that it takes the United States to stop the wars in Israel that they are funding, to stop this country that the United States is supporting. How does that work? It works in this way, and I'm going to tell a story that might be odd. It has to do with Cuba. Cuba! this way, and I'm going to tell a story that might be odd. It has to do with Cuba. Cuba.

There are two issues in international politics where the United States' position is what you call in statistics three standard deviations from the norm. That means completely weird. One of them is Israel. When you vote on settlements or you vote on whether there should be a ceasefire in Gaza, the entire General Assembly, 150 countries will vote one way. The United States, Samoa, and Israel will vote another way. The other issue that's like that is Cuba. The UN votes to end the embargo against Cuba. All 180 countries in the UN vote against it except for for the United States and Israel, who vote for the boycott. And that's odd on its face because Israel supposedly opposes boycotts.

But in this case, it's the United States and Israel together that vote to boycott Cuba. So what do these two questions, Israel and Cuba, have in common. They both are the questions where there are foreign policy lobbies in the United States that are single-issue movements and have decisive political importance domestically for the president. The Cuba lobby in Florida and the AIPAC, the Israel lobby, all over the country. Those are by far the most powerful foreign policy lobbies. When push comes to shove for a president, it's domestic politics that counts always. So American foreign policy interests only carry American policy so far. It's when the United States fears a regional war or a confrontation with another great power that the president can

say, all right, domestic political costs I'll pay will be tolerable because it will be seen to be a vital national security interest now. So what every president is looking for is not, is saying, when will the costs to me of putting the pressure I need to put on Israel to stop it be lower than the costs of allowing Israel to continue fighting? In past wars, those wars have been so quick, that's been an easier question. In this context, it's been a tougher one for the Biden administration, and it's a sharper learning curve. I don't think as many

people in the Biden administration understand the history as well as they should be understanding. Okay, so this war won't stop until the United States says stop. But when is that going to happen? More with the professor when we return on Today Explained. never been easier thanks to their digital picture frames. They were named the number one digital photo frame by Wirecutter. Aura frames make it easy to share unlimited photos and videos directly from your phone to the frame. When you give an aura frame as a gift, you can personalize it, you can preload it with a thoughtful message, maybe your favorite photos. Our colleague Andrew tried an aura frame for himself. So setup was super simple. In my case, we were celebrating my grandmother's birthday and she's very fortunate. She's got 10 grandkids. And so we wanted to surprise her with the oro frame. And because she's a little bit older, it was just easier for us to source all the images together and have them uploaded to the frame itself. And because we're all connected over text message, it was just so easy to send a link to everybody. You can save on the perfect gift by visiting AuraFrames.com

to get $35 off Aura's best-selling Carvermat frames with promo code EXPLAINED at checkout. That's A-U-R-A-Frames.com, promo code EXPLAINED. This deal is exclusive to listeners and available just in time for the holidays. Terms and conditions do apply. Support for this show comes from the ACLU. The ACLU knows exactly what threats a second Donald Trump term presents.

And they are ready with a battle-tested playbook. The ACLU took legal action against the first Trump administration 434 times. And they will do it again to protect immigrants' rights, defend reproductive freedom, fight discrimination, and fight for all of our fundamental rights and freedoms. This Giving Tuesday, you can support the ACLU. With your help, they can stop the extreme Project 2025 agenda. Join the ACLU at aclu.org today. Today Explained is back with Professor Ian Lustick, who said earlier in the show that Israel's wars end when a superpower says they should, not when Israel achieves their aims. We're absolutely committed to achieving our war games, our war goals.

Destroying Hamas. To prevent anyone from ruling or having influence in Gaza who will educate children to hate Israel. Releasing the hostages. To establish a buffer zone controlled by Israel inside this small Gaza Strip all along the border to distance the Palestinian population from Israeli settlements inside of Israel proper. Making sure Gaza doesn't become a threat again. To prevent the Palestinian Authority of having any role in the reconstruction or rule of

Gaza. Making sure that we can return our citizens in the north and in the south. And of course, we're aiming not to have to rebuild Gaza, have other people do it, even though it was Israel that did the destruction. You know, those are just part of the list that you can find. And for that, we'll apply maximum power with maximum precision everywhere that's needed. So how has President Biden responded to Netanyahu's war aims here? And how has his response changed over the course of these hundred days of war? Well, I think the most dramatic thing that we saw was right after the Hamas Islamic Jihad

attack, the United States turned on the green light, which is what the United States typically does when Israel is at a war. Oh, go ahead, defend yourself, or do whatever you call defending yourself. My administration was in close touch with their leadership in the first moments of this attack. We're going to make sure you have what you need to protect your people, to defend your nation. And later this week, I'm going to ask the United States Congress for unprecedented support package for Israel's defense. However, within a few days, the Biden administration realized that there were extreme, there were forces in Israel who wanted to attack Lebanon. The United States was concerned, as it always gets concerned in Middle Eastern wars,

that its larger regional and international interests would start to be impacted. Biden became very concerned, I think, at the comments by some Israeli leaders that we should actually reduce our effort against Hamas and attack Hezbollah now. We've always wanted to do that. This is a window of international acceptance. But Israel would go through an unprecedented amount of damage. And, of course, so would Lebanon. That's the kind of war that Biden went to Israel to prevent.

On the surface, it looked like he was there to support Israel, and he was. But you'll notice that it wasn't him who was embracing Netanyahu. Netanyahu embraced Biden. Netanyahu desperately needed that sign. But what was going on politically was that once the United States, American president is there, if Israel does something right away after the president is there, it implicates America as if America had told Israel, yes, attack Lebanon. And that is not something that an Israeli government can do. It cannot betray America so completely. So that's one thing that we have to understand. The question of whether this catastrophe is going to become a super catastrophe. But still, I feel like you saw from the bear hug with Netanyahu to President

Biden urging caution about the civilian death toll in Gaza, you did see a sort of progression in his approach where he started to caution and warn Netanyahu more in, say, month two, month three? You used the word caution. I think that's right. I said at the beginning, the United States turned on the green light. When Biden went there and started talking about war crimes, international law, you have to respect international law, he's turning on the yellow light, the caution light. It got brighter and brighter, but it's not red yet. And that's the question. When is it going to turn red? Now, when the United States plays footsie with UN security resolutions and seems to maybe be prepared to support one, even if it doesn't

have any teeth, it's brightening that yellow light. When they allow a resolution to go through that calls for a ceasefire, or when they tell Israel they're going to, that's a red light. That's why those resolutions constantly being proposed at the U.N. Security Council are very important. They're important because we can see how close the United States is to ending the war. From all the history that you carry around with yourself, that you've lived through, that you've studied, what will Netanyahu do to trigger the red light? I don't think he's going to say anything that Netanyahu himself will do that he hasn't already done. I think part of it will be the realization that you can't end the war in the Gulf with the Houthis until the Gaza war ends. And you can't eliminate the probability of escalation in the Gulf or in Lebanon until the war ends in Gaza.

There is a constant danger. There have been over 350 Palestinians killed in the West Bank since the beginning of this war. These are things that the Biden administration can only lose. It's losing politically already. The progressive wing of the party is weakening its support for President Biden. That's a crucial issue for him.

This is new. We haven't seen that kind of political factor in the equations that presidents have had to solve in the midst of Middle Eastern wars before. So it's hard for me to predict exactly how important it is, but I'm pretty sure that it will mean something as this election cycle moves forward. I'm glad you brought up the election because I do wonder if this isn't resolved by November, what it looks like if President Biden loses the election. If he loses the election, I mean, I don't see any real difference in a way. That is to say, the Trump administration, if you look at the Trump administration and the Obama administration, the trajectory of Israeli policies and the status of peace negotiations was the same.

They didn't go anywhere and the settlement settlement continued, and the prospects for peace were zero. So I don't really see much of a difference between the second Obama administration and the Trump administration. And I don't see much difference in the Biden administration. The Biden administration was doing nothing to advance a peace process. This is getting into another topic, but when this war ends, when the shooting stops, there will be a renewal of a pseudo-peace process because the image of a two-state solution peace process is politically valuable to a president, even if he knows that there never will be success. The idea of doing something, of seeming to do something, of keeping alive the image of that possibility is very

important, not just for the United of that possibility is very important, not just for the United States, but for Israeli governments, for the Palestinian Authority, which gets hundreds of millions of dollars in aid every year from the international community, and from peace process industry, people like me and foundations who are constantly trying to find ways to bring peace or at least raise money for their organizations in the hopes that peace process will work. But that's another, that's the question of, you know, we're going to see a diplomatic theater, about a four-year diplomatic theater, once this shooting stops. Do you think there could be a outcome from this particular conflict that would prevent another one in three or four

years that could break this cycle that you've alluded to where eventually the United States or the UN has to step in and say that's enough? Well, I think so. I think it's possible. I don't think it's very likely, but it's possible. And one of the things that is I could be surprised by the effect of the devastating losses that Israel has experienced and the effect of the global isolation that Israel is going to experience as a result of the impressions that most of the globe has about what Israel is doing in Gaza. Those two things could impact Israeli public opinion in a way that produces a leadership

that rejects what's called the mowing the lawn strategy, that every three years we need a war not to convince the Arabs that we can be lived with, but just to destroy their capabilities to attack us for another couple of years. Now, if that were abandoned, Israel would have to come up with an actual image of peace. There are so many issues, and they're so emotional. The pain that Jews and Palestinians have been suffering is incalculable. And my hope is that the ignorance which most people have about this conflict can be reduced and that people can start to grapple with the

real issues and not the issues that arise from fantasies that they have about this conflict. Professor Emeritus Ian Lustick, political science, UPenn. He's got a whole bunch of books about this conflict. Most recently, Paradigm Lost, From Two-State Solution to One-State Reality. Our program today was produced by Isabel Angel and Amanda Lou Ellen. We were edited by Amina Alsadi, mixed by David Herman, and fact-checked by Laura Bullard with help from Hadi Mawagdi. Today Explained is honored to now air

on Connecticut Public Radio WNPR. Hello, Susan. Thank you.