Today, Explained - How Trump lost the bro vote
Episode Date: June 27, 2026The group of men that famously helped propel Trump to the White House in 2024 is having second thoughts. Here’s what that means for Republicans in the future. This show was edited by Kasia Broussa...lian, fact checked by Esther Gim, mixed by Shannon Mahoney, video edited by Christopher Snyder, and hosted by Astead Herndon. Fans at the UFC Freedom 250 Fan Fest on the South Lawn of the White House where President Trump hosted Ultimate Fighting Championship matches. Photo by Tom Brenner/Getty Images. You can also watch this episode on youtube.com/vox. Listen to Today, Explained ad-free by becoming a Vox Member: vox.com/members. New Vox members get $20 off their membership right now. Transcript at vox.com/today-explained-podcast. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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There's simply no way around the numbers.
Donald Trump's approval rating in his second term has completely collapsed.
But some groups matter more than others and one group matters a whole lot.
That's young men.
Take a look at this stat.
In 2024, men under 30 prefer Donald Trump to Kamala Harris by about one percentage point.
But in recent polling this year, men under 30 have widely disapproved of Donald Trump.
And his approval rating is underwater by 55.
points, a stunning decline. Now, I wanted to dig in further with these numbers at an event that was
specifically geared to target this group. So I went to Washington, D.C. for Donald Trump's UFC
event to talk to young men about the president. Do we think he's still cool? Have young men
really turned on Donald Trump? Let's dig in. Support for today's show comes from better help.
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Why did y'all decide to come out today?
Probably be American.
We got free tickets.
It's going to be a great time.
That's about it.
One question we have is, would you say you're here for Trump or UFC?
UFC.
UFC all the way.
UFC.
UFC has a lot of culture, a lot of different people
from a lot of different places,
and that's what America is to me.
You definitely see diversity.
You definitely see a lot of different types of people.
You see a different type of vibe.
But one of the things that is really clear is like,
you know, Trump used UFC to kind of pitch himself
to young men in the campaign trail and things like that.
And there seems to be that, like, younger men really liked him
in 2024-ish.
Do y'all think that's true?
And then, like, is that still true?
He just knows how to advertise himself for the younger proud.
Why do we think Trump and men seem to have a connection?
I mean, I guess his views.
What do you mean?
That's a good question.
I'm like, why do we think this is true, right?
Yeah, just the way he views everything, I guess,
similar with how young people.
It aligns with masculinity, I feel like, to a certain extent.
Like, is it how he talks?
Is it the policy?
Like, what would we say specifically?
Well, at first, it was what he was promising to America.
What do you mean?
He was promising lower price.
prices on everything. We didn't know wars were going to start with other countries.
It's like the younger generation, they see this stuff, they see everything online and it's like...
He was promising change. Yeah, probably. Yeah, big change. Exactly.
Question of happens, has he lived up to that? No. No, I wouldn't say so. I don't say so. I'm disappointed. I'm
disappointed. I guess what I was going to ask about you mentioned no new wars? You mentioned
kind of, I mean, gas, whatever you want to make? I'm like, what do you think has been the disconnect in the
second time? Middle class. I want things that affect my life. I want to see change in my regular.
day to day. It's like, and I don't see that.
He mentioned disappointed. Why?
Just because he's not living up to what he said he was going to do, you know?
He said he was anti-war.
You know, he said he was going to lower prices and we're just not like,
that result is just not happening. You know, we're not seeing it.
Yeah, yeah, yeah. I mean, do y'all feel the same way?
Prices are ridiculous.
Gas is, ff, don't even get me started on gas.
I don't even want to fill my gas tank no more.
Yeah.
It's crazy, man.
Trump definitely used to seem cool.
Like, do we think he's still cool?
Question mark?
I feel like after, you know, the Epstein files and everything,
should have just like ramped up with how he's been acting.
I feel like it was a lot more, you know, chill before that.
I feel like everything is doing now is like negate that, like what happened with that.
Like, what we say that the Epstein files, you think was the break between like, maybe when some of this...
Between the youth?
There was a lot of there.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
I think that the, that definitely separated a lot of people, especially young people, you know?
Because no one likes pedophiles, you know?
No one likes to that...
And the way that it's portrayed, at least it seems like there's trying to be some sort of cover out.
Yeah. Yeah.
Okay, last question would be like, do the ways that Trump was trying to appeal to young men and pitch himself, like, does that apply to people after him?
Like, can JD Vans do the same thing?
Do y'all like these?
Do you, is there another politician, maybe even not Republican, that you like the way they're acting?
Or is this like a specific Trump phenomenon?
Thomas Massey.
Thomas Massey, interesting.
Anyone else who you see across the landscape in your life?
I like that person.
I mean, I don't really keep up with politics, to be honest.
So I feel like even if someone does do this after Trump,
it just won't be at the scale that Trump did it at.
Because he feels unique in some way.
Absolutely.
And the celebrity or in all of that parts.
Okay, cool.
I will say I really like Moundami Road.
You like Mayor of New York.
Siron.
Yes, sir.
I have to disagree with him.
I'm responsible disagreement.
I'm a responsible.
I mean, so he can't disagree.
If there's one issue, you would want Trump to focus on if he hasn't, what would
to be?
Four and A to Israel.
You want to see, I imagine, less.
A lot less.
I feel like, you know, it's, there's stuff going on over there.
It's serious stuff.
People are dying and it just shouldn't be happening.
Is there any other issue?
We're paying for that as taxpayers.
Is there any other issue you would want him to focus on that he's not focused on right now?
Main thing, yeah, Israel.
It's just Israel, yeah.
We don't want conflicts.
And I feel like a lot of young people are on the same page with that.
Like, it's a big thing for the young voters is, is, uh...
It does seem as if it does seem as if it does it does seem as if it is, it does it does
It just seem as if, like, you know, if Epstein was maybe break one, then Iran war and specific
relationship to Israel has been a major break in terms of this year.
Have you seen people talk about him differently or like feel him differently about
him since that stuff is popped off?
Just keep America first, you know?
Like keep our priorities in America, that's all it is.
Care about my family, I care about my country, I want people to be safe and happy where they live.
Yeah.
I care about my wallet too, man.
Country family wallet in some order.
In some order.
Call me your name.
You can call me Eddie.
Eddie?
Jose.
So do you,
would you say you came for Trump or you came for UFC?
I can't for the UFC.
I know a lot of people are hating about he's doing it,
the White House and stuff like that.
But I think it's just a one of a lifetime opportunity to happen.
So that's why you came here.
Yeah, what about you?
I feel like it's an environment.
I feel like this is like a one's an opportunity
where you can come and, you know,
come to a host.
historic place and we get to see something that we really like, like UFC.
Do you like Trump?
To me honest, not, but I mean, what about you?
I do not. I do not. I do not agree with any, any of the things that he has, you know,
done or said or what he's, you know, going for. But I think it's pretty cool that he likes the
fights, that he likes UFC, you know, and all. You like that?
Yeah, I think that's, you know, like, if anybody that likes UFC, I think, you know.
The mayor of New York, he was at the Brazil game.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, so on was at the World Cup event. You're saying it's kind of like the same,
Trump coming to this versus him going the World Cup.
I'm assuming that there's people that also go to the New York mayor, but you know, pretty
cool that he likes the football game.
Yeah.
Because one thing is like, Democrats don't really do UFC, they don't do any of thing like
that, you know?
If Kamala Harris was president, I doubt that there would be a UFC event on the White House,
right?
Right.
I'm saying, like, do you think that's a missed opportunity for them to speak to people
like y'all?
Yeah.
It might be.
Yeah, like that's why I'm saying like, those people, like, if anything, like, let's
say Kamala doesn't like that.
But if she has people on her team like that, you know, they can always, you know, promote that and stuff.
Yeah.
Okay, last question.
If you have one issue, you will want politicians to focus on, what would it be?
Gas prices.
Gas prices.
Gas prices.
It's bad.
I would say, yeah.
I would say gas prices.
Who do you blame for that?
I mean, I just think he's been president last.
I'm like, I'm like, you can't.
It is the president, but it's also the things that he's doing with the war and stuff like that.
I think we should focus more on the U.S. than the other countries.
Would you say you're here for Trump or UFC?
I'd say a little bit of both, you know?
Does the political angle, did it make you more excited or less excited to come?
It'd be even more excited, you know.
Many people don't like Trump.
But this is his birthday.
He's the president.
It's the greatest country on Earth.
So we're here to celebrate that and watch a Grandman fight.
Did John vote for Trump?
I'm 18.
So I just turned 18, so I did not have the pleasure of being able to vote back in the last election.
Would you have?
I know I'd have to think about that.
In my opinion, especially with people my age, I think we all think that the two sides were too
extreme.
And if someone was in the middle, I definitely would have voted for them.
But honestly, I might not have voted.
What do you think?
Did you vote?
I voted for Kanye.
Why is that?
Same reason.
I think they're both extreme.
They take it to the next level.
Do we think Trump is, do you like a more or less than this first term?
I mean, obviously, I like the UFC, so it's a lot.
I like that a lot.
Like he's doing that vocalized.
I mean, I'd say less.
I'd say a little less, but I do like the things he's doing like this, obviously.
That does change my opinion.
It does work to change people's opinion.
You're saying this, this reached you, but you like him a little less this time than last time.
I'd say a little bit, yeah.
One thing that really came up in the last election was about young men in Trump.
Like, there was a whole thing about like y'all, y'all's age, like being really interested in Trump.
And in some ways it feels as if a young man in Trump was a specific relationship.
I agree on that.
I agree that more men think, like, I think, I guess more masculine they think to vote
or Republican the Democrat.
Why do we think that is?
I feel like more Democrat they view towards the LGBTQ community and most like masculine men
don't want to be a part of that.
So they go to the other side, even like they don't look at the politics.
Like politics aside, they don't want to like be associated with gay people.
So I feel that could be a reason.
Yeah, a small reason.
So three big takeaways after talking to young men outside of Donald Trump's UFC event.
The first is that a lot of these boys are here for the sport, not necessarily the president.
They recognize the political aspect, but they're largely here because they're fans of fighting.
The second thing, though, is that those things are kind of related things.
As Donald Trump has gone from the fringe to the mainstream, so has UFC itself,
and a lot of the fans of the sport really appreciate him backing them over a long period of time.
But the third thing is the most important, particularly about politics, because I keep hearing from boys that they
feel a little differently about Donald Trump in his second term than the first term. They feel like
he hasn't necessarily focused on the right priorities. And even the things that made him a model
man or semi-cool have fallen off the second time he's been in office. So I'm going to dig further
into that by someone who lives in the all right manosphere. I'm going to talk to Jack Posobic,
the far-right activist and podcaster, who will be at this event and who I talked to a couple years ago.
I remember at that time he told me that the best way to understand Donald Trump is to think about a fighter.
And so what better place to follow up on that conversation?
Let's talk to him.
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at granola.a.com. I've always thought that the way she looks at these things are, you know,
he's got a challenge directly in front of him, and he's thinking, how do I take that down?
And he look at his background with WWF. There's a lot of that DNA that went into the campaign,
that went into the admin. And I just, I've always thought that that's what President
Trump's mentality, Donald Trump, the man's mentality was.
I mean, it also seems like an element of showmanship that's built into that WWF
that Donald Trump understands.
Like, look at this scene.
It goes without saying.
It goes about saying.
The showmanship, the walkout themes, which obviously he uses at his rallies.
People don't realize behind stage at those rallies, he's directing all that.
The other thing I think about is kind of the like the masculinity projection.
Like people we're talking to here say that like, you know, there's a special relationship
between men and Trump, that he understands them?
Like, what do you think that means?
What is that?
He did stop the only two women who ran for president, you know?
I mean, I understand.
So I'm saying that seems built in the cost, too.
I'm saying, like, what is it about Donald Trump as a guy that guy's like?
Look at his background, right?
He's always been around with boxing, Don King, Iron Mike Tyson back in the day, Vanderholy.
Even his hip-hop stuff.
Even the hip-hop stuff.
He's always been sort of attracted to that masculine.
figure, physicality, always been around with sports.
Sports are just back in such a big way right now.
And Trump was always a big part of that,
including, by the way, getting UFC off the ground.
And Dana White tells the story all the time.
Nobody would give them assurance until Trump came along and said,
you know what, let's give it a shot, right?
They started as non-mainstream, non-establishment,
you know, outside of the Overton window of discussion,
but they connected with the people in a way that WWF connects to the people.
You go and look at the places that pro wrestling goes and holds their events,
not just their Rawls and the wrestlingias, but the house shows,
the shows that don't even make it on TV.
And then you go on a cross-section that, cross-reference that with Magarales.
It's one of the same group of people, the same sort of culture that speaks to each other.
You may not, you know, you may not have a pro sports team in your town.
But you know what?
When WWF comes to town, you can see Hulk Hogan body slamming giant.
you might be able to go see Donald Trump come in,
and he's going to come as the New York City Fifth Avenue billionaire.
He's going to come and see you and show that you matter.
I mean, yeah, you're right.
There was a lot of outcry about, you know, UFC on the lawn,
but I hear what you're saying,
that it's about bringing a culture that mostly lives
in communities that necessarily don't have big sporting event,
major sports teams, and bringing that to the White House.
And you're saying that's what Donald Trump has done
has served those communities.
He's always had that sort of authenticity.
that connects directly.
So it doesn't surprise me at all
that he would say, you know what,
I'm here, I'm in the big place right now.
I want to bring all my friends in together and do this.
I want to, though, ask about what's changed,
maybe from first-term Trump to second-term Trump,
because one of the things we heard,
even to talk to some of the young men here,
was that they feel like Trump's a little less cool now
than they may have liked him four years ago.
Like, what do you think is any difference
between Trump's connection with those people now
that maybe those young men who supported him in 2024,
but they're a little softer now,
because we talk to some of them here.
I hear that a lot of people saying,
especially young men saying, look, you know,
we want more focus on domestic than a foreign policy.
We heard that a lot to that.
Whereas, and I'm sure you did.
I'm sure you do.
I hear the exact same thing,
and I communicate that to the White House
whenever I talk to, whoever I talk to in there,
you know, whoever's listening,
that it's hey, they want more focus on domestic,
whereas they see the foreign stuff,
they say, you know, whether I'm foreman against it,
I just want to see stuff that affects me directly.
And that's what I hear over.
Over and over again.
It's that, Epstein and, you know, just a gas price, whatever it is.
And so I think that at an event like today is going to be something, hopefully, kind of maybe restart that connection.
Yeah, so you seem to be acknowledging that there is a little bit of a break in that connection, or at least some of the young men who was such a strength for Donald Trump in 2024.
It seems like you're acknowledging they might be a little song.
I hear it all the time.
I hear it all the time.
I mean, isn't there kind of a fair argument that Donald Trump came in on pricing?
came into lower prices and they're not lower?
Inflation just hit a record high since those kind of Biden years.
Like, what's happened then?
Well, I think what the president would say is, is that's the price of getting Iran off the table as an international print.
So you acknowledge it, I acknowledge it, of course.
Gas prices are up.
They are coming down, but that is the price for this.
Now, will that be in time for the midterms to have that, you know, have that softening effect?
We'll see.
But I think at the end of the day, the president's looking at, when he leaves all of the time,
leaves office at the end of 28,
you know, or I guess, you know, January 29,
that he'll be able to say, hey, I took Iran off the world stage
as this international threat.
You know, I'm a trusted process on that,
but I certainly acknowledge there's friction,
there's pain points, absolutely.
Cool, the second thing that I want to bring up
is Epstein, because that came up with some of the young men here.
Like, has it been surprising that Donald Trump
has not seemed to follow through on the scope of transparency
that he's promised?
Look, I want to see everything that's come out.
I mean, everybody knows my background with this.
I was gonna say, like, as the Pizza Gate guy, like, there's not, but I mean, like, the whole thing with the Pan Bondi gave us the binders and said, oh, this is going to be the big thing, and here they come, and said, okay, but you always said that was part one.
That would lead one to think there's going to be part two, part three, part, et cetera, you know, however many it is until we get all the way out.
I think that if the administration had just said, you know what, just ripped the band-aid off, just ripped the band-aid off.
Just ripped a baby off.
It's going to happen eventually.
Why not be the ones to come out and say,
look, we want to have all of this out.
There's so much of an appetite for it.
And I'll tell you why,
because the crimes that have been alleged
and substantiated, even to this point,
are so horrendous, so heinous,
that it's just become this,
I guess, avatar, I guess,
of the elites versus the people kind of thing
that we're talking about,
that if you don't release it,
it becomes,
becomes he's on the side of the elite.
It becomes a block between that relationship
that I was just talking about
that he's always traditionally had
with the average people of America
to say, hey, wait a minute,
we thought you were on our side, release everything,
we want it out there.
I hear you, I just want to follow up
because what we were hearing from some of the boys here
was that the inability for him to be transparent
on this front has already blocked the relationship
that they felt like they had with him
when he was coming into office.
Why is his lack of transparency to this point not been enough for you to already say they've crossed that threshold?
Because it's a relationship problem, right?
It's like when I'm with my wife and we have an issue and I said, well, we solved that issue.
I said, yeah, but is she happy about it?
Right?
So, you know, you know what I'm saying?
You know what I'm saying?
You're saying like, you know, there's still like some lingering.
So that's why I'm hoping and I'm sure.
And by the way, very pleased to see that you see the turnout today.
There's a lot of people who said that like, oh, he's totally lost his connection with, you know, the average person out there.
I would say that I think today is an example of him saying, you know what, hey, I'm on your side.
We're going to do this thing.
I'm opening up the White House to as many, literally as many people as we can.
We should see this as a part of the repair of that relationship.
Is that what you're saying?
Reconnection.
Reconnect.
Reconnect.
Okay.
It's like, look, you know, sometimes you get a little busy.
Girl needs a date night.
I say, you know what, sweetheart?
I'm putting the phone down.
I'm putting Twitter down.
I'm putting all of it down.
It's nice just me and you.
It seems a little different.
Like, even from the times that we've talked, like,
I remember three, four years ago, we would be at scenes like this and be hearing things about Democrats and pedophiles and Democrats have like...
Well, that's the issue is kind of...
And now we see the kind of reversal of those things.
I'm saying as someone who I think helped popularize, is that fair to say, some of those initial claims about Democrats, how has it been?
Is my kind of my question now that that focus is now on Donald Trump?
I think the focus now is more elite and general.
Okay. I would say...
Not D or R, but elite class.
I would say it's more like that.
And by the way, I said that back at the time, too.
That it's always been that...
And back then it was the president.
So I could watch every have seen it in the White House many, many, many times.
Yep.
And they were the ones who were perceived as the ones blocking the information or trying to hold it up.
They both testified now, whatever, right?
We'll see if they actually tell the truth on that.
But you do see it as being something where, again, I think the...
some of the initial stormwine or the hemming and hauling out of Pambani's office,
which she no longer holds, is responsible to that.
I really do.
He's saying that had a direct effect to the kind of scenes we even see now
where, like, people are using those kind of insults focused on Trump and Republicans
in the way that they weren't doing years ago.
Yeah, they are, but I do think it's a little bit, it's a little bit cynical, right?
Because it's like, Democrats were in the White House for four years.
They had the whole government, they didn't anything of that.
You know, okay, if you had Epstein files, give us the Epstein files.
Why didn't you?
But you mentioned kind of the centrality,
centrality around war, which seems like a big reason for some of this ship.
Like, 100%.
I guess to me, you know, I heard Trump want me to press a couple weeks ago say that he did not
break a promise by the actions versus the rhetoric of no more new wars.
Like, I was at so many of those Trump rallies.
I heard him make the arguments for no new wars.
How is this not a break of that promise?
Well, the way I've said it is, is that this is not an Iraq-style war.
It's not an Afghanistan-style war where you've got, you know, thousands of troops that are storming the beaches.
There's a war.
It's a war. It's a war. But it's not a forever.
Is it an operation? Sure.
But it's different from the idea of a full-on, full-scale troop deployment to a Middle Eastern country.
How many people believe you on that front, though?
Because, I mean, even, I imagine that hard, that cell?
Can you at least say, like, is that cell getting harder to make with even Trump's own fans?
No, I don't think so because we do see that he hasn't put troops on the ground.
I want to look ahead now.
Like, you know, there does seem to be a unique relationship that Donald Trump has with young men
or he was able to really execute that in 2024.
Yeah, for a guy who's turning 80 today.
For a guy who's turning 80.
So I'm saying, is that the same for JD Vance?
Is that the same for Marker Woo?
Is that the same for the people coming after Trump?
You know what? There is something real special that I see whenever JD goes and he's with the military,
where it's like he comes out there and he has this camaraderie with them that, as a veteran myself, I think, is unmasked.
When we take him to campus events, it's the same deal.
They really look up to him and they see this one of theirs.
He's huge in a new culture, in a way, in a different way than Trump has been.
He understands the memes, he reads the memes, he portrays himself as the means.
He lends all the way in.
Whereas, you know, President Trump did post his pepe meme in 2015.
He's more of a scroller, more of a retweet, yeah.
He's a scroll retweet, whereas JD, I think, has totally immersed himself in that meme culture and in that internet culture where, you know, people have criticized him for it.
Is that something you think Democrats can, like, scoop in?
Well, the question is which Democrat?
And I just, I don't see a Democrat that has that right now.
I really don't.
I mean, James Talleyqua, like, you're real, you know.
And Gavin Newsom, he just comes across his slimy, and then Kamala Harris is trying to run again.
I'm not saying it's not possible, but I just don't see who it would be.
Yeah, of those options, you're taking JD Vance, particular to that relationship.
Yeah, I take, um...
Don't be a Democrat.
All right, all right, I'll give you one, though.
I'll give you one.
You can see the Democrats trying out this, you know, hey, let's take a white male veteran who's also a Democrat and put them in and just get them to talk about
economic Democrats. So, Grant Platner is kind of like the next iteration of that strategy.
Will it stick? Will it not? We'll see. But I can, I think I'm starting to see the beginnings of a
new strategy there to bring back the Blue Dog Democrat, but in a more like Bernie Sanders,
populace, but but more, I guess just manly is that? Okay. Right. And you're so that
That version maybe takes...
Now with Graham, they may have gone a little bit too far,
yeah, and it went a little bit too far, but you can see them trying to do it, and I predict
they'll continue to do so.
Last question, like, is there any fear you have that the combo of Epstein, Iran has put him
on a worse footing with that same group of young men who he was succeeding with just two years
ago?
But the numbers are softer today, there's no question about that, but that's what this is
all about.
That's what having the UFC here is about.
So I think there may be that acknowledgement that's coming off to say, hey, we need to reconnect.
Let's reconnect.
Let's do it on your terms.
Let's bring everyone in.
Let's have that bash.
With, by the way, winding down Iran, which, of course, is going to have that effect on gas prices that we all want.
That has to come alongside them.
It's got to come.
It's got to come.
There's no question.
You cannot disassociate war on Iran with the gas prices and the economic pain people are feeling.
And if you do that politically, if you try to say, you're going to say it.
well, you know, it's so important that we do this and don't worry about it.
I mean, you're done.
You're done if you say don't worry about it and don't worry about the gas prices.
What helps is victory.
If you have victory, then people are willing to forgive a lot if you get a done.
Kind of like you're in the ring.
Thank you so much, Jack.
I appreciate your time.
Appreciate it, man.
So Jack agreed with our premise.
Young men have softened on Donald Trump, driven by things like gas prices, the Iran war,
and the Epstein files.
But that doesn't make them Democrats.
That just means they're a weaker demographic for Republicans largely,
and a ripe target for Democrats to look at for the midterms and the next presidential election.
Jack said that we should think about events like this as an attempt for the White House to make a reconnection
with important demographics like men and specifically young men.
But he also acknowledged that none of that matters if Trump doesn't change the policy.
So I'm back in New York City and I've had a couple days to reflect on the UFC event
and specifically what Jack Posobic told me about Trump's ability to command a policy.
attention, and dominate culture. Yes, the event was superficially successful, thousands of
attendees, the type of made-for-TV moment Trump loves, and a signature summer event for the White
House. But it was marred from a comment by UFC fighter Josh Hokit, whose statement about
Michelle Obama left a permanent stain on the evening. And lastly, Michelle Obama is a man. Am I right,
America?
Now, while the comment was condemned by UFC boss Dana White,
I think it speaks to the reasons why people didn't want this to happen in the first place.
There are ways to appeal to masculinity and rural American culture that aren't cruel or misogynistic.
This event was not one of them.
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I'm a Sned Herndon, and this is America Actually.
