Today, Explained - Hullaballoon

Episode Date: February 6, 2023

The balloon crisis is blown up. Politico’s Alex Ward deflates it for us. This episode was produced by Amanda Lewellyn, edited by Matt Collette, fact-checked by Miles Bryan, engineered by Paul Robert Mounsey and Patrick Boyd, and hosted by Sean Rameswaram. Transcript at vox.com/todayexplained Support Today, Explained by making a financial contribution to Vox! bit.ly/givepodcasts Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

It's coming from China, through Alaska, and Canada. You're going to see it in Montana, and you're going to freak out. It's a balloon. But it's not just any balloon. It's a spy balloon. Well, China. It's a spy balloon. Well, China says it's a weather balloon. But does anyone believe them? But don't worry, because we've got the jets.

And the jets got the missiles. And that balloon is going down. On a wintry Saturday off the coast of South Carolina. But the balloon rises again on Today Explained. Get groceries delivered across the GTA from Real Canadian Superstore with PC Express. Shop online for super prices and super savings. Try it today and get up to $75 in PC Optimum Points. Visit superstore.ca to get started. Look, up in the sky, it's a bird. It's a plane. Today, Explained Vox,

Sean Ramos from here with Alex Ward, Politico. Alex, what's up with this balloon? Don't you mean what's popping? Oh, it's good to have you back. Happy to be back. Look, I think the bottom line here is that this episode is both a thing that matters and is also wholly irrelevant. Let's talk about why this matters. This is, as far as we understand it, a Chinese spy balloon that has entered American airspace on January 28th and traversed from Alaska all the way to the Atlantic coast and into the Atlantic, where it went on February 4th and met its demise. There were days of speculation of what would happen after the balloon entered U.S. airspace. In that entire time, while the U.S. government says that it stopped China from collecting intelligence as it floated 60,000 feet above the United States,

this, you know, probably could have still grabbed stuff. The balloon is the size of three buses, equipped with solar panels for power and a surveillance payload. It can maneuver itself and has changed course. In the grand scheme of things, that's not great. Doesn't sound good that China just kind of brazenly was collecting intelligence on the United States right above our heads without really anyone doing anything about it until it got shot down on Saturday. It successfully took it down, and I want to compliment our aviators who did it, and we'll have more to report on this a little later. Thank you.

Why this doesn't matter that much. This is nowhere near the worst thing China has done to us in terms of even intelligence collection. I mean, two thoughts off the top of my head. First, China has killed and imprisoned American intelligence assets in China since 2010 at least. 18 CIA informants were killed or imprisoned in China after a spy network was dismantled, according to reports in the New York Times.

It's not clear whether the CIA was hacked or whether a mole helped the Chinese to identify the agents over a two-year period. And then let's not clear whether the CIA was hacked or whether a mole helped the Chinese to identify the agents over a two-year period. And then let's not forget the Chinese perpetrated a massive breach of personnel files from the Office of Personnel Management in 2015, taking, you know, information from anyone who's worked or dealt with the government. In all, the hack hit four million current and former federal employees, exposing data like details about job assignments, training and performance ratings, information that could be used to blackmail employees with access to classified information. And, you know, who knows how that's just the two off the top of my head, those two things are far worse and far more damaging to the general U.S.-China relationship and their competition with one another than a balloon flying above us for a week or so. That said, the balloon has caused the greater freakout, whereas these other two incidents, while I'm sure in secret meetings and et cetera, et cetera, are important, it didn't cause this level of like political global backlash.

Okay, we're going to talk more about how important this balloon was or was not, but let's just talk about how we first sighted it. When exactly did that happen again? So that was January 28th, and that was in Alaskan airspace over the Aleutian Islands. And this balloon then traveled into Canadian airspace and then in through northern Idaho and then spotted in Montana on February 1st. Well, hello, everybody. I am sitting in my driveway here in Billings, Montana. And right now, there is a ground stop on our airport and this thing is up

in the sky. And then it continued onward to the Atlantic Ocean. Your flight path started in Alaska. Is that to say that President Biden knew this thing was coming into United States airspace potentially back in late January? He was briefed about this early on, and then he was reaching a decision point as to what to do with it on Wednesday, February 1st. And on that day, he had given the order to the Pentagon to shoot it down. I told them to shoot it down. On Wednesday? On Wednesday. What's the recommendation?

They said to me, let's wait until it's safe this place to do it. What does this mean for China? Senior military officials, this being Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Glenn Van Hurk, the chief of Northern Command, suggested to the president, or rather recommended, don't shoot this down right now, Mr. President, because otherwise it could cause damage to civilians underneath. Let's be clear about this. This is a pretty massive balloon. And when destroyed, it will cause debris and it will fall down. And there were predictions, or rather assessments,

that if this were to be destroyed, it would fall within a 20 by 20 mile area. That's about 400 square miles. I am not a math person, but I believe that math is right. And so it's not like there's tons of people in that part of Montana, but one could imagine parts of debris fly through a Walmart or a preschool or something. And the last thing the administration wanted was to, of course, hurt anybody and cause a bigger crisis than this already was. So the recommendation was just let this float off into the Atlantic where we can shoot it down safely. The president agreed with that decision, and that's why they let it cross through Kansas, North Carolina, South Carolina, and into the Atlantic. And they don't want to just shoot

this thing down and then turn their boats around and go back to base or whatever. Something happens to the payload? Well, they're going to retrieve it. It's currently in about 47 feet of water off the Atlantic within our economic and airspace and all that. So they're going to retrieve it. They're going to take a look at it. They're going to see what it's made out of, maybe what it was trying to collect, et cetera, et cetera, gain some intelligence off of China's intelligence gathering operation, and we'll probably learn some more about the Chinese than we already knew.

That said, we've known the Chinese use balloons to spy on the U.S., not only during this administration, but in the past administration. But in the meantime, this is very much just they shot it down. It's in the Atlantic. Navy and Coast Guard vessels are coming to pick it up. And then they'll assess it for, you know, what they can glean from it. Alex, I think it's high time I ask you why China is using balloons to spy on the United States. Isn't it 2023?

It is. And this is a question I was asking officials all week, really. It's like, doesn't China have pretty sophisticated satellites in space that can look at all this stuff? And the answer is yes. Yes, China does have that. But the reason to use a balloon is mostly twofold. The first is it's really hard to track.

It doesn't really give off sort of a signature, right, a technological signature. So it can typically fly undetected across the U.S. airspace. If it weren't for, you know, folks in Billings, Montana looking up and saying, like, what is this white spherical object in the air? Here's the moon. And then there's that. What planet is that? And taking photos of it and have it go viral and forcing the administration to respond. Who knows?

We might not have actually heard about this balloon. So that's sort of part one. Even though it should be said that according to the administration, they were tracking this from the days it was in Alaska, etc. But that's, you know, they weren't making this public until folks in Montana made it public. Right now, we assess that it'll probably be over the United States for a few days, but we'll continue to monitor, review our options, and keep you updated as we can. And part two is it's maneuverable and predictable. So where satellites are susceptible to gravity and just the motion of the which they move they are not you can't really put them in the place you want them when

you want them whereas balloons you can they've got motors and they've got direction so you can pilot it and basically go i want to go this way i want to go that way and so one of the reasons not the only reason but one of the reasons the b Biden administration assesses this is a spy plane versus a weather balloon, as Beijing claims, is because of the components on it. The fact that it's maneuverable, the fact of the kinds of things that are on this balloon, and the fact that it constantly was flying over areas that are important to the U.S. military, including Malmstrom Air Base out in Montana. So, which is one of the three places where our nuclear silos are, fun fact. So this is part of the reasoning why there's such certainty within the Biden administration that this is meant to spy. And so that's why you use it. It's harder to track. You can put it basically

where you want it, when you want it. And that's its advantage over satellites. Although, let's not minimize satellites. Satellites can still provide quite immense pictures and great detail for the Chinese, and they are still using that, right? So even though this balloon is down and that operation is over, let's not kid ourselves. The Chinese are still spying above the United States with satellites, just with a different method. And after this several days long saga where Blinken canceled his visit to China, where the Biden administration, the U.S. military shoots down this balloon over the Atlantic Ocean right off the coast of South Carolina, how does China respond to all of it?

Angrily, right? I mean, the United States shot down this piece of Chinese property in like a pretty high profile way with fighter jets, with missiles, right? Or a missile, I should say. So it doesn't take that lightly, right? No government would be happy that you shot down anything of theirs with, you know, the full might of the American military. Come on, Matt. Don't think. Just do. In this case, of course, the Chinese are also still saying that it was not meant for spy purposes. So in their messaging, the U.S. violently shot down something that was meant for scientific collection.

Again, highly unlikely based on what this balloon looks like, what it has on it, and where it traveled. But they're unhappy at this point, and it's souring U.S.-China relations. And so it's leading to a sort of question now of, you know, will this incident burst, let's say, the current U.S.-China tense relationship? Will it make it even worse? And you could argue yes in the short term, but like, will this fully break ties between thing and sort of not a thing. It's a thing in the sense that China spied. It's not a thing in the sense that everything probably over time is going to be OK and we'll all, you know, weather this. And let's just say the tensions will probably deflate over time. Was that a balloon deflating, Sean? More with Alex Ward in a minute on Today Explained. Support for Today Explained comes from Aura. Aura believes that sharing pictures is a great way to keep up with family,

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Everyone's being surveilled constantly, but it's always, shoot the balloon and never unplug Alexa. Today Explained, we are back with Alex Ward from Politico. Alex, this whole thing feels kind of inconsequential on its face, but you'd never know from turning on the TV or hearing Democrats and Republicans talking about this. Why does this feel like the most consequential thing that happens in Sputnik or something? In terms of the reaction, it feels like somehow China has pulled over this major intelligence coup on us. And like, let's be clear about a couple things. One, as far as the administration says, they were also able to collect intelligence on the thing

while it was in air and block it from collecting intelligence on us. Now, who knows if that's true? But if that's the case, then like all that happened was there was a Chinese balloon above our heads for a while. As for why sort of the public backlash, I mean, part of this, of course, is the surprise, right? And no one likes the fact that a foreign government can just surveil on us kind of at will and we don't really act until it goes across the entire United States. That doesn't feel good. Of course, the senators from Montana, one a Democrat and one a Republican, are upset. The problem with Joe Biden and this White House is they're now empowering. They're empowering our enemies since 2021. It's a dangerous moment that just makes our adversaries feel bolder about doing something irrational with America. Also, the political environment is such that it's really easy to bash on China.

Like, this is an easy story to sort of make a thing out of. There's a Chinese spy balloon, and Biden's not shooting it down. What began as a spy balloon has become a trial balloon, testing President Biden's strength and resolve. And unfortunately, the president failed that test. Now, even if there are good reasons to not shoot it down, you can hit on Biden for it. That's why you've seen tons of Republicans put out images or videos of them with guns, like looking into the sky as if somehow their bullets are

going to reach 60,000 feet or that their aim is even that good. It's a perfect sort of political football to throw at the president. The other is just the geopolitics of it. Like China is sort of the big bad in geopolitics alongside Russia. And, you know, China's been doing a lot of bad things. It's aggressiveness in the South China Sea. It's predatory trade practices. It's longtime spying on the United States, etc., etc. I mean, it's now what the U.'s a long time spying on the united states etc etc i mean it's now what the u.s calls the pacing threat and there's always worries that it's going to take

taiwan etc etc so something like this happens and everyone goes crazy right plus there's like a physical manifestation of it and it makes you feel helpless there's a balloon oh no why can't we do this is just and it's sort of the perfect thing to talk about Republicans hitting Biden, China-U.S. spying, greater geopolitical tensions, Secretary Blinken canceling his trip to Beijing. Like, it's just hit so many things. It's perfect to sort of keep in the ether. But are we having the sort of grander conversation about, like, the state of the U.S.-China relationship, about the intelligence, you know, war back and forth? No, we're just talking about balloons. Is there a chance that this could have been deliberate on China's part? Could they have

been forcing a controversy in the United States? Do they know that this could blow up the way it did? So as far as the Biden administration says, we have seen Chinese spy balloons three times when Trump was in office, and each time it went undetected, and then already once when Biden's been in office. So we've had four previous balloons that didn't cause this kind of uproar, that didn't cause people to say, shoot it down, shoot it down, shoot it down. So if you're the Chinese, you're probably thinking, you know, I can send another balloon across the U.S. and it's going to be fine. So that might have been a miscalculation. It also, I mean, the timing is interesting, right? Blinken was set to go to China and meet Xi Jinping, the Chinese leader, and maybe

this was a way for China to try to be like, hey, you know, we still got eyes on you, don't think you have the upper hand. And yet they miscalculated because the U.S. went, no, we're going to stop this trip because this trip is going to be mostly about balloons anyway. And that's not productive, but also like shame on you for violating our sovereignty in airspace international law. So one, it could be deliberate. I mean, the Chinese say it was an accident, right? There's a weather balloon that got away from them thanks to Western winds. I mean, maybe, I don't know. But if that's the case, then like, they caused a major geopolitical uproar with a pretty massive mistake.

How does this affect the United States' relationship with China going forward? Short term, a downturn. And in the long term, about as crappy as it's been. So the downturn is Blinken's not going to China. The downturn is we're going to have probably hearings where Republicans and Democrats will be angry at the Biden administration for not taking care of this issue earlier and at China for being so brazen to violate our airspace and try to collect intelligence on us. So, you on us in such a brazen, bold fashion. So in the short term, that's going to cause some problems. I can't imagine Blinken's going to China within a couple months.

I would say probably minimum three months at that point, he might head back. Who knows? I don't have any reporting to suggest that. Just that's my general feeling. But in the long term, the US-China relationship has survived a lot. Well, as the US-China trade war drags on, we've had yet more evidence of the slowdown in the world's second biggest economy. It's not racist at all, no, not at all.

It comes from China. The Biden administration says China is committing genocide against some of its own people, Muslim ethnic Uyghurs in Xinjiang in the West. And including in recent months, I mean, lest we forget, I bet you did an episode on it, and apologies for not remembering, but, like, remember when Pelosi went to Taiwan? And what a big thing that was! You don't have to apologize for not remembering

whether or not we did an episode on Nancy's visit to Taiwan. You do have to apologize for you not remembering that you were the guest in our episode about Nancy's visit to Taiwan. Was it me? Oops. You're seeing already escalation between China, where they're sending planes to the middle of the Taiwan Strait that separates Taiwanese island from mainland China. You're seeing ships sail near that that sort of border. The leader of China, Xi Jinping, say, hey, don't play with fire here.

The story of the U.S.-China relationship is a bad one in the sense that it's getting worse at a time when both countries, it would be better for the world if both countries got along, but they don't. And so, like, is the balloon going to be like the straw that broke the camel's back? I can't imagine that's the case. I can't imagine that all of us, like, this is the worst thing China's done because it's not. It's just sort of one of the more visible and, you know, invasive. But it's nowhere near the most impactful or the most damaging. Again, a small downturn. It's not going to be pretty between Washington and Beijing for a while. It's going to probably get a little ugly.

It'll get worse and then it'll go back to its bad state. Is there a world in which an incident like this, Alex, could actually lead to some kind of escalation that could lead into, I don't know, a real war with China? I mean, look, if Pelosi's visit didn't cause it, if, you know, the U.S. sending aircraft carriers as sort of a show of force doesn't do it, if China sending aircraft and other vessels near Taiwan doesn't do it. Like, there's just a lot that's going to take for a war to happen. A balloon's not going to do it. I really think this is mostly a political sort of uproar in the U.S. because, like, why not? If you were a constituent, you would probably want your elected representatives to be like,

what the heck is going on here? And that's what they're doing, especially the ones from Montana. And of course, Republicans, some of whom are thinking about a 2024 presidential run, are using this as a way to hit Biden as like weak and ineffective on China. So it's just a political football. It's not, you know, going to cause Biden to reach for the nuclear football. Going back to an episode that I was definitely a part of five years ago. I'm glad you remember that one. And you've reminded us several times throughout this conversation that the U.S. and China are spying on each other in a

number of ways. But this balloon incident got so much attention. What is it about our relationship with China right now or the way we spy on each other, that, you know, doesn't get this much attention, but perhaps ought to? Well, it's covert. That's the whole point of the exercise. I mean, when the Chinese are jailing or killing our assets, when they are infiltrating our government and private sector networks, they're doing it clandestinely. They're doing it out of the public eye. There isn't sort of a billboard in the sky that says, hey, by the way, we just did this.

The balloon is that. The balloon is that billboard. The balloon is saying, look, we, China, can spy on you. Even though, you know, whether it is, you know, taking out our assets, whether it is using spy satellites to look down on us, whether it is infiltrating our networks, the one that gets the most attention is the one that you can see. And so I think we've learned something about ourselves through this episode. Well, through this episode, but also through the episode of the balloon, is that, you know, when it's tangible, when tactile, when it's visible, it can become a bigger story and a bigger issue than it deserves. Because we're not, this conversation, although we've touched on it, isn't really about, you know, hey, how come the U.S. and China spy on each other in pretty egregious and sometimes deadly ways?

And no one's having that conversation, not just us. Like, the political class, right? We're talking about balloons. We're not talking about the real geopolitical fight happening between the world's two superpowers. And that's what the balloon represents. It's sort of the largest level, and that's the more interesting conversation. But the balloon itself is, in the grand scheme of things, kind of meaningless.

Other than it reminds us of just the danger between the two countries and how easy it is to bash China at a time when it frankly deserves it a lot, but sort of where we are in terms of our rhetoric when it comes to China and where that relationship is when anyone, Democrat or Republican, administration official or anyone else, can just say China bad, do something about it, without thinking about the broader consequences at play. Alex Ward, Politico, used to be Alex Ward Vox. He doesn't remember the time he was on our show talking about Nancy's trip to Taiwan, but he does remember being our very first guest five years ago this month on our first episode. He writes the National Security Daily

Newsletter over at Politico. Subscribe at politico.com. Our show today was produced by Amanda Llewellyn. She had help from Miles Bryan, Matthew Collette, Patrick Boyd, and Paul Robert Mounsey. I'm Sean Ramos for him. This is Today Explained.