Today, Explained - Is Cuba next?

Episode Date: March 9, 2026

If you take the president at his word, the answer is yes. This episode was produced by Dustin DeSoto, edited by Amina Al-Sadi, fact-checked by Andrea Lopez-Cruzado, engineered by Patrick Boyd and David Tatasciore, and hosted by Noel King. An apple seller walking past a figure holding the Cuban flag with the word "Resilience" after a blackout in Havana. Photo by Yamil LAGE / AFP via Getty Images. Listen to Today, Explained ad-free by becoming a Vox Member: vox.com/members. New Vox members get $20 off their membership right now. Transcript at ⁠vox.com/today-explained-podcast.⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

It's been a wild couple days for Iran developments. The latest, Ayatollah Hamanay's son will replace him as supreme leader. President Trump might reinstate the draft. President Trump wisely does not remove options off of the table. Then on Sunday, there was this unforgettable tweet from Megan McCain. I've known Lindsey Graham since I was a child. I'm imploring anyone who will listen in the Trump administration to stop sending this man out as a surrogate.

He is scaring people. Okay, so Senator Graham was interviewed on Fox, where he went ham on Iran. We're going to blow the hell out of these people. But it ain't about money today. It's about six Americans who died in the defense of our country. Then at the end, Graham made a chilling geographical and geostrategic turn. Iran is going down and Cuba is next. Is Cuba next?

We're going to ask on today, explained. Senator, thank you very much. This week on Network. and chill, I'm taking you inside my sold-out New York City book tour stop for my brand new book, Well Endowed. I sat down with the hilarious Heather McMahon for a night of laughs, real money talk, and honest financial truths. We're getting into everything the book covers from how to actually build wealth, how to protect it, and how to stop leaving money on the table. Whether you've already grabbed your copy of Well Endowed or you're still on the fence, this episode will show you exactly

why everyone's talking about it. Listen wherever you get your podcasts or watch on YouTube.com slash your rich BFF. Estan a O'EXPligado. You're listening to Today Explained. Vivian Salama, staff writer, The Atlantic,

reporting on wars and rumors of wars. So as the bombs were flying in Iran within hours of the military operations starting, we know that

in the situation room at the White House and those gilded secure rooms of Mar-a-Lago, there were whispers of this grand plan that many in Washington and capitals around the world probably once thought was unthinkable. And that is the toppling of not one, not two, but three autocracies that have literally tormented generations of American presidents. And so the U.S. and Israel teamed up and launched their military operations in Iran,

just weeks after President Trump ordered his lightning strike that put Venezuela's president in a New York City courtroom. And we know that President Trump is already eyeing his next target, which is Cuba. But for 50 years I've been hearing, as a little boy, I'd be hearing about Cuba. You know, Cuba's a disaster. Cuba, Cuba, do we know what the Trump administration plans to do in Cuba? We don't know. I don't know if they know, to be honest with you.

I think the endgame is very apparent to them, which is that they want that post-Castro regime that's now running Cuba to go away. And this is part of the president's grander scheme to lock down American supremacy in the Western Hemisphere. Under our new national security strategy, American dominance in the Western Hemisphere, will never be questioned again.

He's talked about this at great length in the last year, as have many within his administration. It was in his national security strategy. They now call it the Dunrow document, I don't know. It is, you know, at the root of so many of the policies that we've heard him talk about since he took office for a second time, annexing Greenland. Now what I'm asking for is a piece of ice.

Taking over the Panama Canal. My administration will be reclaiming. the Panama Canal. Even making Canada the 51st state. Because they should be the 51st state, really. It would make a great state. And the people of Canada like it. All of that rooted in this concept that the president has, that American supremacy in the Western Hemisphere is imperative for its national security, but also for his legacy. Does the president really believe that the post-caster regime in Cuba poses a threat to American supremacy? I think the president, does believe that. You know, remember Cuba is located just 90 miles from Key West. Yeah.

That has been a thorn on the side, not just of this president, but of generations of presidents, Democrats and Republicans alike. It is clear that the forces of communism are not to be underestimated in Cuba or anywhere else in the world. What's happening in Cuba is not a failure of the Cuban people, it's a failure of Fidel Castro and of communist. Cuba C. Castro no. All the people of Cuba must be able to learn the truth about the regime in Havana. The isolation it has earned for itself through its contempt for basic human rights and international law. No matter what the dictator intends or plans, Cuba will be pronto de liberty. And President Trump, now on a high.

from his successful ousting of Nicholas Maduro in Venezuela, his, you know, in part with Israel killing of the Ayatollah Khamanai, and this ongoing effort to bring about an end to the Iranian regime, although they still do not blatantly say that this is a regime change operation, but it seems clear that that's where it's heading. Advisors are telling me that he feels like he's on a role. It's working. And so Cuba is next on the list.

Cuba's at the end of line. They're very much at the end of the line. When President Trump has asked about the timing, about why now exactly, what does he say? What does his administration say? So there are various elements to this, right? You know, you have the immigration element of it. The president, you know, believe that Nicholas Maduro's regime was supporting narco-terrorism, and that was their justification for it.

It's why they said that removing him was a law enforcement operation. He was arrested on the ground in Venezuela by FBI agents, read his right, and removed from the country. Because they believed that he is, at the end of the day, supporting the trafficking of illegal drugs into the United States.

That was their justification. And the reason I'm starting to answer your question about Cuba with Venezuela is because that's been the key element here. Venezuela has been propping up the Cuban regime now for a few decades. This states back to Hugo Chavez being in power in Venezuela and Fidel Castro still in power in Cuba. This was just at the end of the Cold War when the Iron Curtain came down. Mr. Gorbachev, tear down.

this wall. And Russia was trying to kind of lick its wounds and figure out its next steps. Of course, during the Cold War, the Soviet Union was a major supporter of Cuba. Russians turned out in thousands to show the world, and America in particular, that Nikki loves Fidel. President Castro had the red carpet treatment all the way to the red square. When the Soviet Union collapsed, Cuba lost its biggest benefactor. enter Venezuela and Hugo Chavez, who was a socialist.

Cuban-Venezuelan solidarity has been rooted in the shared vision of a United Latin America as envisioned by Simon Bolivar and Jose Marti. Fidel Castro saw him as a protege and really groomed him to be able to have this sort of brotherly relationship where Cuba would send doctors and, you know, other support to Venezuela in exchange for oil. Venezuela has been supplying for years subsidized crude oil to Cuba. And in return, Cuba sends back health workers and military and intelligence personnel. More than 60,000 Venezuelans have traveled to Cuba free of charge for medical care.

And there are now more than a thousand clinics in Venezuela staff, mainly by Cuban doctors. Flash forward to 2026, Nicholas Maduro is toppled. That is, Nicholas Maduro was Chavez's successor. The U.S. also launched intense operations to try to establish a blockade in the Caribbean where any Venezuelan oil that was trying to get out illegally, I emphasize illegally, to Cuba or anywhere else would be seized. And they started doing that quite intensely. maybe dating back to October and November before Maduro was officially overthrown.

And so that lifeline that Cuba was getting from Venezuela has now been virtually eliminated. On top of the fact that their economy has been crumbling for many years now, in part because of crippling sanctions that the U.S. has imposed on it, in part because COVID really did a number on their economy and other factors as well. But that's been key. From where we sit in early March, we know that both Venezuela and Iran have shared a very big question after the U.S. gets involved, which is who takes over? Who is set to take over in Cuba? Who does the U.S. want in charge? Well, this is the big question, right? And the U.S. does not outwardly talk about any particular individuals. We know that Secretary of St. Marco Rubio has been talking to the former president's grandson, Raul Castro's grandson, trying to see if they could find some sort of a solution. There have been sort of back-channel talks between the U.S. and the Cuban regime to see if a deal could be struck where they could be peacefully and quietly, you know, hit the road.

President Trump joked about a friendly takeover a few weeks ago. It very well end up having a friendly takeover of Cuba. And so, you know, they've sort of alluded to the fact that the U.S. would kind of go in there and do some sort of regime change operation. But what they haven't talked about, and it's rather intentional, is what comes after the post-Castro regime. Let me ask you lastly, President Trump is talking like this is inevitable. Cuba's in its last moments of life as it was. it'll have a great new life, but it's in its last moments of life the way it is.

What do you think? Is this inevitable? Reading the tea leaves, it certainly feels like this could be inevitable. Again, you know, to one of your first questions, why now? Because they believe the circumstances are ripe for regime change in Cuba.

They see between Venezuela, between the momentum that the U.S. has had, that this is going to work. if they do it now. The time to strike is now. And I also want to emphasize that, you know, the President Trump's coalition, his MAGA coalition, has not been that open to some of this military adventurism, you know, a lot of them pointing to the fact that it goes against America first. It betrays America first that President Trump is fixated on overseas conflicts and not paying enough attention to the economy and other issues that are weighing heavily on the minds of Americans.

And folks I speak to in the White House say that, yes, they are concerned that the president's focus on some of these overseas operations could ultimately come back to haunt Republicans, certainly, who are on the ticket this November. But at the end of the day, I think there is a sense, especially among those who are advocating for these military operations, that it's like ripping off a Band-Aid. You get them done quickly, one, two, three, punch. And that way, come summertime, the president can go out there when he's on the trail

campaigning for some of these people in the ballot to say, look at what Republicans have given you. We've given you victory overseas. America's safer now because we did this. And the memory of those military operations, the strain that they brought, will be behind them at that point. And they can focus on domestic issues. Whether or not that works out remains to be seen. But that is definitely the objective that they're looking to achieve.

That was the Atlantic's Vivian Salama. Coming up next to Cuban journalist who fled the country a few years back tells me why he welcomes Trump. Support for the show comes from Delete Me. Delete Me makes it easy, quick and safe to remove. your personal data online at a time when surveillance and data breaches are common enough to make everyone vulnerable. Have you Googled yourself? Have you Googled yourself in creative ways? Some weird stuff can come up. Claire White, our colleague, tried Delete Me. I would say that I'm a pretty private person when it comes to giving out my email, giving out my phone number. As it turns out,

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We'd love to talk. Business. This is today explained. My name is Joe Suarez, and I was a journalist in Cuban. You left in the summer of 2022. Why did you leave Cuba? Well, I leave Cuba basically because of the persecution that the regime imposed on journalists, independent activists, people who want freedom for the island, change. And I was one of those. I was doing reporting, investigative reporting on things like torture, political prisoners, persecution of religious minorities. in that case that put a target over me

and the regime harassed me in different ways. I was kidnapped once by the political police. I was detained several times. My family was harassed, my mother, my wife also who is a journalist, also who was a journalist in Cuba. So the break point for us was when the regime says, you are raising a child,

we had a baby in that moment, that is going to become a co-examination. counter-revolutionary because you are a counter-revolutionary. So we're going to take your kid from you, away from you. And that was our breaking point. My wife and I, we talked about that because we think family is the first homeland, and we had to protect our kid. I think we protect, we try to protect him as much as we can.

And for instance, there was a moment when the political police kidnapped me in the middle of the street. I was walking in the neighborhood and trying to get some money from an ATM. And the political police just came and they said, do you have to come with us? And they basically were trying to threaten me because of my investigative reporting on political prisoners, torture, that kind of stuff. And my wife was waiting for me at home with lunch.

She was waiting for me. And she just didn't saw me come back. came back. So how we deal with that, and our kid was a baby, but he kind of asks, where's dad? It would try to deal in a very...

You know, it was tough. It was tough. And I was free like two hours later, but I don't want to share with him in front of him what was happening because I don't want him to hate his country, the country where he was born. I don't want

hate to... I can separate the country, which is wonderful, is a geographical paradise, an amazing story, but the government is so terrible. The system is terrible. The system is diabolical. So I don't want him to be traumatized

and thinking, okay, this country, I hate this piece of land because what they did to my dad or my mom or how my mom was suffering. What is it like to live in Cuba? 89% of Cuban households live in extreme poverty. Can you imagine?

seven out of 10 Cubans cannot eat three meals a day because of lack of money or food shortages. The other thing is when you get some food, the blackouts are so long that you can loss that food in your fridge. It can rot, and it's super sad because the lines to get food, lines that I myself did before I arrived here to the U.S. It could be like 12 hours to get a piece of chicken that is not enough to feed your family. So the despair is tangible in Cuba. It's big in Cuba. You can fill the despair. All right. So it is in the context of all of this that President Trump says he wants regime change in Cuba. He is not being subtle about it. He's actually being quite loud about it. What do you think about this coming from Trump?

Well, I think Cuba needs a change, a big change, and not a cosmetic change. Cuba needs a system change. The centralized system in Cuba for the Communist Party has been destroying not only the economy, but the life of thousands of families. There are separations. My family and I, we were very lucky that we can arrive to the U.S. together, but we have a lot of friends and family members that are being separated because of migration, because of exile.

What you feel in Cuba now is hope. People are also with some mix of anxiety because people don't know what's going to happen. But people think there is hope because the policies that President Trump is taking and especially because Marco Rubio is in the team and Marco Rubio, because of his Cuban heritage, he really understand, I think, what's happening in the area, what's happening in the Caribbean area, what's happening in Latin America. What does a change look like? You said you want to change, but what do you mean specifically?

Well, I think the sovereignty of Cuba should reside in the people. You want elections. Of course, and I will, pluripartidism, and I want a republic. I want Cuba reinsured in the orbit of the West. I don't want this foreign ideologies, like socialism, which is a foreign ideology from Cuba, obviously. But it's a foreign ideology that has destroyed the economy and the life of millions of people. American presidents have tried to find ways of dealing with Cuba for generations now, right? President Obama restored diplomatic ties with Cuba. Raul Castro, as a result, started liberalizing the economy.

President Trump is distinct, though, because in both terms, he has just been a lot more aggressive. Would you prefer that it was not Donald Trump trying to make these changes in Cuba, or is this a case of it really could only be Donald Trump trying to make these changes? That's a good question, Noel. I lived in Cuba during the Obama era, and I think a lot of people have hope also, genuine hope of these different approach, not because, they see Obama or Trump as a, you know, a special figure or whatever, because people want to get rid of the socialist system. And the most significant changes in our policy in more than 50 years. We will end an outdated approach that for decades has failed to advance our interests, and instead we will begin to

normalize relations between our two countries. That's why a lot of people. So they say, you know, if you're going to do a deal with them in the case of Obama, we will see, you know, we will give you some grace to see what happens in the island. The thing is that sadly, during the Obama era, we didn't saw the changes that, the big changes that people need, a release of political prisoners. We didn't saw liberalization of the political landscape, you know, pluripartidism. We didn't saw that. So the approach of the Trump's approach is more connected, I would say, with the Republican Isle of the big Cuban-American lobby that exists in Washington, D.C. since decades ago. And I think their approach has been proven more correct during the years.

And now is the case also. And I think that it could be controversial. I think Trump is controversial. And he doesn't hide that. I think is a. It's a fisher, not a bog, as you say, Americans. But I think the approach has been given a lot of hope to Cubans. And Cubans are willing to give Trump some grace, you know, as they did with Obama. Some Cubans did with Obama. And what I think is Cubans are really willing to see a change. If it comes from Trump, if it comes from another political leader, it's okay.

So let's say President Trump goes in and he does force regime change in Cuba. What would that mean for you and your family? Well, I would love to go back to the island. I would love to be to reunite with my grandfather, who is 96 years old. I would love for him to see my son that is now first generation, Cuban American in exile. that my son, Lucas, who was born like a week ago, I would love my mother to meet his grandson and to walk together, you know, again,

for the places that means so much for me and my wife in Havana and in Camaway, another city in the Oriental part of the island. I think a lot of Cubans are thinking on that. I've been talking with my friends, like, can you imagine if we can go to... to our church again together, man. Can you imagine that we can go to, I don't know,

to the places, to those parks that we just talk hours for hours? Can you imagine it would be so great? That's why a lot of people have hope because they really miss what they have lost in the island, in some cases because of political reasons, because you are pushed away, like in my case, and I know in other cases, too, you are pushed away because of your ideas,

not because you're a criminal, but because of your ideas. Yo-A. Suarez is a journalist. He left Cuba in 2022. He lives in the U.S. now. Dustin DeSoto produced today's show. Amina El-Sadi edited. Andrea Lopez-Crisado Check the Facts, and David Tattasurer and Patrick Boyd are our engineers.

I'm Noel King. it's today explained.