Today, Explained - Israel has lost Americans

Episode Date: March 12, 2026

The war with Iran is deepening divisions in the US-Israel alliance, on both the left and the right. This episode was produced by Hady Mawajdeh, edited by Miranda Kennedy, fact checked by Andrea Lopez-Cruzado, engineered by Patrick Boyd, and hosted by Sean Rameswaram. A billboard of President Donald Trump in Tel Aviv, Israel. Photo by Alexi J. Rosenfeld/Getty Images. Listen to Today, Explained ad-free by becoming a Vox Member: vox.com/members. New Vox members get $20 off their membership right now. Transcript at ⁠vox.com/today-explained-podcast.⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The president isn't the most reliable narrator when it comes to his war in Iran. You just suggested that Iran somehow got its hands on a tomahawk and bombed its own elementary school on the first day of the war. But you're the only person in your government saying this. But as it drags on and the Ayatollah gets replaced by his even more extreme Ayatollah son, you got to wonder why we're there. If you ask some of the people closest to President Trump, the answer seems to be Israel. Here's Secretary of State Marco Rubio. We knew that there was going to be an Israeli action. We knew that that would precipitate an attack against American forces.

Senator Lindsey Graham told the Wall Street Journal that he coached Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on how to lobby Trump to join a war against Iran. He admitted that. Israel is driving American foreign policy at the exact moment that Americans on the left and on the right increasingly disapprove of Israel. Israel has lost Americans on today, explained. Support of the show. It comes from The Guardian.

If you listen to our show, my guess is that you value independent voices and perspectives on the news. You want real reporting on real stories and you don't want to wonder if the news you're getting is being skewed by an unseen hand. The Guardian says they're fiercely independent too. They aspire to report the whole picture and their coverage goes beyond the news. They have new perspectives on culture, wellness, sports, and more. For U.S. and World News Without Compromise or Paywall, read, watch and listen today at the Guardian.com. Megan Rompino here. This week on a Touchmore,

Juju Watkins joins us to talk about her year off of the court, but definitely not on the sidelines. We're also looking at the upsets coming out of the SEC tournament and how that might impact selection Sunday and the intergenerational span of U.S. players on display at the She Believes Cup. Plus, we have a surprise guest. You won't want to miss it. Check out the latest episode of our podcast at Touchmore,

wherever you get your podcast, and on YouTube. You're listening to Today Explained. Ross Barkin is a columnist at New York Magazine, and he's on the show today to tell us about our increasingly complicated feelings about Israel. Well, since October 7th and the war in Gaza, you've seen real declining support for Israel among younger voters. It's been quite dramatic. We went from Democratic.

favoring the Israelis by 26 points to the Palestinians by 46 points. That is a shift, John. This is the first time since Gallup started keeping records on the question in 2001. The support for Israel has dipped below the 50% mark. And it's gotten to the point where it's begun to span party lines, but particularly on the left in the Democratic Party. If you're talking about voters under the age of 40, sympathy for the Palestinian cause and antipathy or skepticism.

Israel is much higher. This Iran war, I argue at least, is only going to drive the left younger Democrats, especially, away from Israel. I think you're going to start to see even older Democrats grow more skeptical, because this is a war, as the Trump administration has said very bluntly, just being driven by Israel, by Netanyahu's desires to strike Iran. We knew that there was going to be an Israeli action. We knew that that would precipitate an attack against American forces. and we knew that if we didn't preemptively go after them before they launched those attacks, we would suffer higher casualties and perhaps even higher those killed.

And now we're engaged in a very deadly, destructive war that has killed American troops. The Pentagon says more than 140 U.S. service members have been wounded over the past 10 days during Operation Epic Fury in the Middle East. Eight severely on top of the seven U.S. troops killed since the war began. It's killed many, many civilians in the Middle East. The Red Crescent says over 1,300 Iranians have been killed in one week of war. The war has so far killed nearly 500 people in Lebanon and 11 in Israel. And it's created a lot of chaos for the Gulf states.

And most directly for Americans, it's raising the price of gasoline. Filling up has become a lot more expensive. $0.43 a gallon more. Gas prices have spiked the highest that they've been since 2023. I'm paying 40 bucks, but that doesn't get me a full tank anymore. So you take all that together, and I believe that support for Israel in the long term, certainly in the Democratic Party, is going to continue to slide. And you're starting to see some examples of that now with how the 28 candidates are talking about Israel in particular. Well, I want to talk about how this war is influencing the left's view.

of Israel as well as the rights, but let's go in that order. So what have you seen in terms of fractures on the left over this war when it comes to views on Israel? Well, you're talking about the Democratic Party broadly. At the top of the party, you still have older Democrats who are very supportive of Israel, but don't like that Trump did not see congressional authorization for the war. So that's the argument of Chuck Schumer, the minority leader. Trump doesn't care about being honest and direct with the American people. He doesn't care about the soldiers.

He's putting in harm's way. Hakeem Jeffries, the minority leader of the House, probably the next speaker. Donald Trump, without justification and without coming to Congress, has gotten America into a Middle Eastern war that we know will not end well. And then you have a lot of... of younger Democrats, progressive certainly, who are extremely critical, have wanted to do things for a while now like conditioned military aid to Israel. I think that the idea of completely unconditional aid, no matter what one does, does not

make sense. I think it enabled a genocide in Gaza. People should know, people might need to hit the streets again to make sure that the government knows that we don't want our taxpayer money going towards that. I'm not anti-Israel. I'm pro-people. And also are really trying to rethink how the American foreign policy orientes itself around Israel, where for a long time, Democrats would say, whatever Israel

wants to do, they should get to do, that they're the democracy in the Middle East, they're the Jewish state. You're starting to see a real shift. And even among the mainstream, you know, sort of center-left candidates, you are witnessing a change in tone and language. I look at someone like Gavin Newsom, who has been very supportive of Israel throughout his career.

He recently called the Israeli government sort of an apartheid state. And this sort of language would have been unfathomable even three years ago. It'd be called like anti-Semitic, right? It'd be called anti-Semitic and your career would be in jeopardy.

It would be the kind of thing you would have to apologize, for it would be viewed as a very fringe argument to make. And as recently as 2024, you had the pro-Palestine uncommitted movement, which was trying to build a protest against the Biden administration's approach to Israel and Gaza. And no one from that movement was allowed to even speak at the DNC. All they were asking that summer, and I was there, was to be able to address the convention for a few minutes. Today, I watched my party say our tent can fit anti-choice Republicans, but it can't fit

an elected official like me? I do not understand why being a Palestinian has become disqualifying in this country. And that was viewed as such a risk by Harris, by the faded Biden, that it could not be. They were locked out. and the 2028 convention, I imagine, is going to look different. And you've already jumped ahead to like 2028 projections, how candidates might act. We talked about Gavin Newsom. I get the feeling he might be running.

But let's talk about this moment right here, a moment in which Democrats don't hold a lot of power in the federal government. Are we seeing manifestations of this break with traditional democratic views on Israel manifest itself in? in any way from the Democrats in the government? So federally, the war powers resolution vote that just took place in the House, which was trying to stop Trump from bombing Iran, got the support of almost all Democrats. There were a few more conservative pro-Israel Democrats

that broke with the party, but not many. It was the vast majority support that war powers resolution. So I would say you start there on the level of voting. And I think you see how senators are starting to speak about Israel. I mean, you have like Chris Van Hollen, for example, who's a very mainstream politician, senator from Maryland. Kids in Gaza are now dying from the deliberate withholding of food.

That is a war crime. And that makes those who orchestrate it war criminals. You have younger politicians, you know, Senator John Ossoff has also been very critical the Israeli government, he's Jewish. Concern for the innocent, especially when fighting an enemy unbound by any morality, demonstrates the values

for which the U.S. should stand and which Israel proclaims. The same values meant to be the bedrock of our alliance. This was just something you would not have seen even five to six years ago. Right. And I guess, as you're sort of suggesting here,

they can't really do a ton about it yet, but the earliest sign of how this might be influencing where this party's going might be the midterms. And another thing you think about when you think about the midterms is campaign fundraising. Of course, APEC has been a major donor to Democrats and also Republicans, but we can get to that later. Does a John Asaf coming out and speaking out against Israel change the likelihood of his ability to fundraise now?

Well, it's remarkable has been the backlash to APEC and the amount of politicians who say they won't take APEC donations who are willing to criticize the organization, you start there. People were saying, I don't think our tax pay a dollar should go to starve children in Gaza. And APEC said, really? Okay, we're

going to spend hundreds of thousands, millions of dollars to defeat you. Well, I've never taken money from APEC, and I'm not taking money from APEC in this campaign. Seeing what's happening in Gaza makes me sick to my stomach. Tom Malnowski, who's the former congressman who's running for his old seat in New Jersey, he lost

the primary in part because APEC decided to spend millions of dollars against him. And he offered what we're in the context of even today mild criticism of the Israeli government. So there's anger towards APEC. We'll affect fundraising. You know, I think not so much in this online era. I mean, one thing about the Internet is it's much easier to fundraise. But the Israel's skeptical position is growing or even those willing to offer small criticisms of the government. And the APEC approach to all of that has been you bring a hammer and you

keep hitting and you keep hitting and you scare the politicians and you bludgeon them. And over time, you get compliance. And there's a lot of mainstream Democrats who are tired of that. And they're telling APEC, why don't you just go deal with the Republicans? We don't want to beat your conferences anymore. We don't want your money. The Republicans, when we return, on Today Explained. Support for the show today comes from Mint Mobile, our old friend. You probably like keeping your money. Unfortunately, lots of big wireless companies also like keeping your money so much so that

they're really good at squeezing more out of your phone bill each month. Mint Mobile says they do things differently. They offer a premium wireless plan for just 15 bucks a month. All of their plans come with high speed 5G data and unlimited talk and text. And you don't need to get a whole new phone or number. You can activate your e-sim in minutes and start saving immediately. You can ditch your overpriced wireless plan and get three months of premium wireless service from Mint Mobile for just $15 a month. If you like your money, and who are we kidding?

Who doesn't? Mint Mobile is for you. Shop plans at mintmobile.com slash explain. That's mintmobile.com slash explained. Upfront payment for $45 for three months. Five gigabyte plan required, equivalent to $15 a month. New customer offers for the first three months only, then full price plan options available, taxes and fees, extra. MIMMobile for details.

Support for today explained comes from Built Rewards. If you got to pay rent, you might as well get rewarded for paying rent, says Built. And you can with Built. Built is a loyalty program for renters that rewards you monthly with points and exclusive benefits in your neighborhood with Built. They say every rent payment earns you points that you can put toward flights, hotels, lift rides, so much more. And now it's not just for renters.

Built says that members can earn points on their mortgage payments, too. Plus, Bill says you can unlock exclusive benefits with more than $44. 5,000 restaurants, fitness studios, pharmacies, and other neighborhood partners. You can redeem built points for built home delivery services, gift cards at over 120 brands, and they even say that you can use those points on your student loan balances. Basically paying rent or your mortgage can feel a whole lot better with built. You can join the loyalty program for renters at joinbilt.com slash explained. That's J-O-I-N-B-I-L-T.com slash explained.

Make sure to use our URL so they know we sent you. Support for the show comes from what's not. If you're selling a product, whether that's online or out of a storefront full-time, or as a side hustle, you already know the challenges. Most of the time, you set everything up and then you have to rely on hope. Hope that people find you're listening or hope that they walk into your store. What Not flips that. What Not says they're the live shopping marketplace where you can shop, sell,

and connect around the things you love and whatnot. On What Not, they say you can go live and sell directly to people in real time. Claire White knows about What Not. Watching the auctions on What Not was super fun. The chat was super engaged. The host was really excited to showcase all of the offerings he had. I ended up joining one for a vintage store out in L.A. He was auctioning off some really cool old Levi's denim jackets,

and I ended up winning one of the auctions. For a limited time, What Not says they'll match your first $150 sold in the 4th. first month, you can visit whatnot.com slash sell to start selling. That's W-H-A-T-N-O-T-com slash sell, whatnot.com slash sell. Today, Explain is back. I'm still Sean Ramosferam, and I'm still with Ross Barkin from New York Magazine. Ross, you were kind of teeing up that A-PAC could just have to court the Republicans a little harder now that Democrats are breaking with the group. What is broadly going on on the right, where, you know, the right is in charge, but also the right isn't uniform on Israel anymore, yeah?

So at the top of the Republican Party, you have the Israel Hawks. The strongly pro-Israel side controls the party. So you have Marco Rubio. I'm confident in saying that President Trump's administration will continue to be, perhaps the most pro-Israel administration in American history. Senators like Lindsey Graham. To all the anti-Semnonites, to all the isolationists. I don't believe. Forget it.

I'm not with you. I'm with Israel. I'll be with Israel to our dying day. Tom Cotton. Why does Israel have a responsibility to provide aid to Gaza? Israel was the victim of an unprovoked, vicious attack on October 7th.

We didn't provide aid to Germany and Japan during World War II. And Ted Cruz. Growing up in Sunday school, I was taught from the Bible. Those who bless Israel will be blessed. And those who curse Israel will be cursed. You could take off many senators who are very hawkish on Israel, or have evangelical ties.

An evangelical base of the Republican Party has been a driver of its pro-Israel politics for decades, along with the money that flows into the party. So that traditional pro-Israel side is still strong. And what is interesting is the shift at the bottom. Just as young progressives and younger voters broadly in the Democratic Party have grown Israel skeptical, you're seeing a burgeoning grassroots Israel skeptical MAGA way.

Being a conservative or being a Trump supporter or being part of MAGA does not mean you have to accept another Middle East war. Which just seems so insane based on what he ran on. I mean, this is why a lot of people feel betrayed, right? But there's also just a real dissatisfaction with Israel among 20-something young conservatives who are not especially religious. They signed up for America first.

They voted for Donald Trump in 2024 because he said, You're not going to have a war with me and you're not going to have a Third World War with me. That I can tell you. He said, We are not the policemen of the world. He attacked the Bush administration.

He attacked new conservatives. He made a mockery of men like Marco Rubio. He told them that Republican, Party's dead, and we're going to build an ultra-nationalist, closed border, isolationist country. I will end the illegal immigration crisis by closing our border and finishing the wall, most of which I've already built. From this day forward, it's going to be only America first. America first. And so if you voted for that, you are wondering why are we in this war?

And Nick Fuentes is speaking to some of these orders. Well, if Trump is an errand boy for Israel, then you got to shut down his government. And that means you got to go into the midterms and he got to get the Democrats in. And the Democrats hopefully will impede the administration. Nick Fuentes is an anti-Semite and he's also anti-Trump. And he said, I don't vote for Trump. He kind of exists in his own wing. But I think what's important to keep in mind is someone like Fuentes or something like Carlsonian,

and some like Owens, not all their followers are anti-Semitic. I mean, they have a lot of people listening to them. And a lot of them are just looking for conservative voices who will criticize what's happening, who will look at the war in Iran and say, this doesn't make a lot of sense. This is an effort to expand the territory and the influence of Israel in the Middle East. Of course. Again, not an attack on Israel. It's just a fact. Who's the bigger terrorist is the question today? I would say as an American that if we're going to get behind a regime change, it should be in Israel first.

And I do think this is going to be a longer term shift. I do think in one to two decades from now, even the Republican Party might alter how it views Israel. And so I do think in the coming years, you're going to see perhaps a movement back more to the Reagan-Bush approach. But in the meanwhile, as you point out, this is not America first. Is that tearing the base apart, the MAGA base? Or are they willing to, like in so many other cases that preceded this one, follow their leader wherever he may want to go? I guess the way I would put it is I would distinguish between the hardcore Republican who will support Trump no matter what. And they're excited about this war.

And then you have maybe someone who voted for Trump in 2024. Maybe they voted in 2020 for Trump as well. They consider themselves right meaning or conservative, but they're not showing up at a Trump rally. They're not wearing the merch. They just, they don't like the Democrats that much. I do think there's a lot of more marginal Republican voters who are going to, to sour on this war if it drags on. That's a key too. I mean, the remarkable thing about this Iran war is that it's not popular already, broadly speaking, if it is in the Republican Party.

And that's a shift from what usually happens with wars, where initially they do enjoy a kind of uniform support or there's a rally around the flag effect. We've skipped that entirely. We're almost to the point where we're at the war-weary part of the conflict. And so if this war is going on months from now, if gas prices have not gone down, I do think there's going to be more and more Republicans and perhaps even people who are strongly supportive of MAGA who do turn on Trump. Republicans in Congress had the chance to rein in the president last week. They opted not to do so. We asked Ross if that's just the nature of Republican politics at this moment. It's the nature of following him.

It's also Iran as a villain. I mean, for like the real pro-Israel Republican, they are like the number one villain, the fact that Trump could say, I killed the Ayatollah, even though nothing has changed in the country. And his son took over, right? His son took over.

Repression remains, and anyone who studies Iran even a little bit could tell you that's what would happen. It's an extremely complicated society with a very entrenched, theocratic regime. So I do think for Republicans, it's hard to buck Trump right away

because killing the Ayatoll is a big deal. It feels a bit like for them when Obama got bin Laden, which I think Americans broadly supported. So I understand in a way where they are, but I do think more are getting nervous. Just between what's happened in the past few weeks and Israel's war in Gaza,

it does feel like we've seen a dramatic evolution in Israel's place as a sort of third rail in American politics. With Gavin Newsom calling the country sort of an apartheid state. With people saying America owns Israel, these are things that were, as we discussed, like they would get you in trouble. You would be called anti-Semitic. But it doesn't feel like Israel's doing a ton to beat the allegations anymore. No, they're not.

And that's the issue. you have a war that Israel plainly wanted and either worked in tandem with the United States to begin or initiated and pulled the United States along almost as a junior partner. One cannot say that the United States foreign policy is not linked to the Israeli government. And the shift politically has been extremely dramatic.

If you were in the 2010s and used the term apartheid or even the early 20s, you would face censure and probably not have a political future. And you look at how someone like Hillary Clinton spoke about Israel as our unstinting ally. You know, the Clinton-era Democrat could not acknowledge the occupation in the West Bank, for example. So certainly, if you're an Israel hawk or supporter of the Israeli government, you are now culturally on the defensive and politically. I mean, you have power in the White House, but beyond that, politicians are not nearly as afraid of violating certain taboos or what war taboos and are now no longer taboos.

And what does that mean for our relationship with Israel, for our position in the Middle East? Because it's a weird position to be in right now with the United States. going to war with Israel against Iran, it feels like this relationship's the most locked in it's ever been. And yet, here we are having a conversation about all of the fissures. It's the most locked in as long as Trump is president,

and certainly Netanyahu runs Israel. Yeah. But leaders change. And will it be so locked in in 2029, in 2030, in 2013, and in the United States, you're gonna have, if it's a Democrat in office, I do think this will be the least pro-Israel Democrat you've seen in the modern era, whoever is president.

And if it's a Republican, after what's happened in Iran, after what's happened in Gaza, after the chaos the last few years, even the next Republican could at least, if they're going to be very supportive, not give Israel every single thing it wants. Ross Barkin At NYMag.com You can find his latest including Trump has handed the Democrats

a new winning issue for the midterms The Day Israel Lost America And the Democratic Party's breakup with A-PAC is almost complete At today explained You can find Hottie Mawaddy who produced Miranda Kennedy who edited Andrea Lopez Crusado

who fact-checked and Patrick Boyd who was on the mix Tomorrow we'll take you to Hollywood Thank you.