Today, Explained - Israel’s next move

Episode Date: January 3, 2024

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces trouble at home and abroad. AP correspondent Tia Goldenberg and scholar Hussein Ibish explain the significance of a high-profile killing in Lebanon. This episode was produced by Miles Bryan and Hady Mawajdeh, edited by Matt Collette, fact-checked by Laura Bullard with help from Haleema Shah, engineered by David Herman, and hosted by Noel King. Transcript at vox.com/todayexplained Support Today, Explained by making a financial contribution to Vox! bit.ly/givepodcasts Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

A drone strike killed a top Hamas deputy and at least two other Hamas officials in Lebanon yesterday. Israel hasn't claimed responsibility, but both the U.S. and Hamas attribute it to the IDF. This deputy, Saleh El-Arory, reportedly acted as kind of a go-between between Hamas and Hezbollah, the Shia militia group that's based in Lebanon and funded by Iran. With all these proper nouns involved, some Middle East watchers fear Israel's war with Hamas might soon spread. There are people in Israel who clearly thought and continue to think that October 7 presents the opportunity to create a cascading series of events that maneuvers the United States into feeling that it must strike at Iran. I think also Hamas wants a larger war if they can get one, because a larger war means that others

are coming to their rescue. It's all coming up on Today Explained. BetMGM, authorized gaming partner of the NBA, has your back all season long. From tip-off to the final buzzer, you're always taken care of with a sportsbook born in Vegas. That's a feeling you can only get with BetMGM. And no matter your team, your favorite player, or your style, there's something every NBA fan will love about BetMGM. Download the app today and discover why BetMGM is your basketball home for the season. Raise your

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questions or concerns about your gambling or someone close to you, please contact Connex Ontario at 1-866-531-2600 to speak to an advisor free of charge. BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. This is Today Explained. My name is Tia Goldenberg, and I'm a reporter with the Associated Press based in Israel. The headlines today, Tia, are more or less that there are fears of a wider war after Israel reportedly killed three members of Hamas in Lebanon yesterday. Tell us how this has been developing and start with what we know about these killings. Well, yesterday evening,

there were reports about a blast in Beirut. Video circulating online showing the fiery scene of the blast in the Beirut suburb of Dahiya, a Hezbollah stronghold. And it turns out that there was an explosion that killed at least three members of Hamas, including Saleh al-Aruri.

Saleh al-Aruri was one of the co-founders of the group's military wing. And as second-in-command to Hamas's political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had threatened to kill him before the war even began. He once was based in the West Bank. He was exiled. And he was in Beirut yesterday in this apartment that was struck in an Israeli strike. What makes Al-Aruri significant and why was he in Lebanon? Al-Aruri is a senior member of Hamas's Politburo. He's the second in command.

He's also the group's link to the Lebanese Shiite militant Hezbollah group, which for the last three months has been engaging in low-level fighting with Israeli forces along Israel's northern border. Constant shelling from both sides of the border. Fiery protests on the streets of Beirut. Security forces pushing protesters back from the U.S. embassy here. Protesters say they are outraged. And he's known as Hamas's direct tie to Hezbollah. And while Hezbollah hasn't joined Israel's war with Hamas to a full intensity quite yet,

it has been trying to draw Israel's attention while its troops are in Gaza fighting Hamas. Okay, so Aruri is not just a person with a link to Gaza and Hamas. He's also a person with a link to Hezbollah. And that means he's also a person with a link to Iran, I would guess? That appears to be the case. Of course, we know that Hezbollah and Iran have deep, deep ties. Iran is Hezbollah's sponsor. And the link suggests that Salih al-Aruri is also Hamas's link towards Iran. If we pull back a bit here, we know that Israel wants to win a war against Hamas. And there are many Hamas fighters, and this is one man. But is the killing of al-Aruri, is it a big loss for Hamas in any way, strategically? What we've seen over Hamas' history is that Israel has carried

out targeted assassinations against senior Hamas members in the past. And what has happened is, in the years following those assassinations, Hamas has replaced those members with other members. Now, al-Aruri's death yesterday obviously increased tensions in Israel and along the border with Lebanon specifically. It's assumed that Hezbollah may respond at some point. It isn't likely to change too dramatically the course of the war in the short term. Now, Hezbollah, immediately in the aftermath of this strike, there wasn't any particularly high increase of attacks by Hezbollah towards Israel. So it doesn't appear as though Hezbollah is coming out in full force immediately after this attack. Its leader, Hezbollah's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, has said in the past that it will

respond to any Israeli targeting of any citizen on its soil, whether it be a Palestinian or a Lebanese. But at this point, it doesn't seem like things are taking too much of a dramatic turn just yet. Let's shift back to Israel, where you are. How was this news received in Israel among ordinary Israelis? Are they following this war closely? Yes, Israelis are following this war very closely. On the whole, Israelis still support the goals of the war, which are to crush Hamas's military and governing capabilities

and to return the remaining people taken captive by Hamas on October 7th. And so the strike yesterday, in a sense, gave Israelis a kind of morale boost. It may be restoring Israelis' sense of pride in their security services, a sense that was lost on October 7th when Israel so badly failed to protect Israeli citizens. So to have an apparent Israeli strike kill a senior Hamas member in Lebanon is something that Israelis can feel as a military achievement during this war. What it does, though, is perhaps make returning the hostages a little more difficult because there are reports that Hamas has called off any negotiations to bring the hostages back in return for a ceasefire.

The families of hostages still in Gaza, on the one hand, they did feel a sense of pride that a senior Hamas member was killed. On the other, they see that this can just derail the return of any remaining hostages. Is a strike being good for morale? Is that good for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu? He's been under a lot of pressure in Israel. Netanyahu and his standing are quite complicated right now. After October 7th, his standing in Israel has just tumbled. They want him out of office and behind bars. After 16 years, they say Benjamin Netanyahu, known as Bibi, is unfit to serve this country for many reasons. His opinion polls showing how much support he has

show that it has dramatically dropped. Israelis have largely rallied behind the war effort, but they still see Netanyahu as largely to blame for the failure of October 7th. I'm trying to be insane, but I'm so frustrated and so angry what he did to us. It's him. Bibi. He has to go immediately. Immediately. He is a murderer, a crime, a crime minister. We're all very, very frustrated that he's still there. So to ask whether yesterday's strike could assist Netanyahu, not yet. He'll need more, I think, to get him back in Israelis' good stead. And even then, he's incredibly polarizing. So if anything, the strike yesterday helps unite Israelis a bit more. It helps unite them behind their security forces. And it doesn't necessarily help Netanyahu.

You know well that prior to October 7th, much of the news out of Israel was about an attempt by Benjamin Netanyahu to limit the power of the country's courts. Now, that led to these huge protests. And the Supreme Court in Israel just a few days ago issued a ruling on all of this. Can you tell us what happened there? Sure. So in July, Netanyahu's government passed the first major piece of legislation as part of this legal overhaul that it was planning. In a country with no constitution or upper legislative chamber, Israel's Supreme Court had been a crucial check on government power. No more. When the Supreme Court don't have the tools to be independent, Israel won't be a true democracy

anymore. This law changed what's known as the reasonability standard. This is a tool that judges use to determine whether a government decision is reasonable. It's a tool that exists in other countries. And in Israel, it's been used in the past to make sure government decisions or government appointments don't cross a line and aren't improper. So specifically, it was used last year against a government minister that Netanyahu appointed, and it struck down his appointment because this minister had been convicted of tax offences. And so the court deemed that his appointment was unreasonable using this standard. Now, this was challenged at the Supreme Court, and the Supreme Court the other day struck it down.

The ruling could threaten confidence in Benjamin Netanyahu's government, which is already under pressure for not preventing the October 7 attacks. So this was the first major blow to Netanyahu's overhaul plan. And that this came amid the war changed its reception somewhat. Israelis have now been united by the events of October 7th. They were incredibly, incredibly divided before October 7th. And so there wasn't a huge outcry to the Supreme Court's decision. The response was much more muted. If this had happened before October 7th or if October 7th and the war were not a factor, Israel would sink further into division after the Supreme Court decision.

Oh, that is really very interesting. So in some ways, the war has shored up a sense of stability on this particular issue. This all makes me wonder whether as long as the war is on, is Benjamin Netanyahu politically safe? Is he guaranteed to remain prime minister? So there are critics who say that Netanyahu can only stand to gain so long as the war is continuing. There is a kind of understanding here in Israel that whatever political implications and backlash is in the cards

will only erupt when the war is over. So that is why he has an interest to prolong the war. Israel is unlikely to go to elections during a war, first of all. Netanyahu can also look to bolster his public standing through military achievements like the strike in Beirut against the senior Hamas commander. He might just also hope that so long as time elapses from October 7th, Israelis who were deeply scarred by the events of October 7th might begin to

forgive and forget and not point as much blame at him. I want to go back to this headline, fears of a wider war. How will we know that that's what we're heading toward? If indeed we are, what are you watching for next? What are you and other reporters in Israel looking for next? Right now, Israel has the bulk of its soldiers in Gaza. A few days ago, it did say that it was pulling five brigades out, which is several thousand soldiers, essentially to have them send reservists back to the workforce to have them do some training. But we're looking out for whether those soldiers rotate back into Gaza, whether they head north.

And we're looking to see whether the attacks by Hezbollah intensify on the northern border, whether so far they've been limited to a strip of land in Israel's north. If we see a situation where rockets are landing deeper and deeper into Israel, this will obviously spark a more serious response from Israel. We're obviously watching the Houthis in Yemen, who are continuing to target Israeli-linked assets in the Red Sea. The U.S. recently pulled out an aircraft carrier, among other military assets that it sent to the region, which does indicate less of a concern of a wider war. So if we do see those U.S. assets returning, that might indicate we're headed towards that. So at this point, it's still unclear,

but everything remains a possibility. That was Tia Goldenberg of the Associated Press. Coming up next, a scholar of the Middle East is going to offer us his informed view of why Israel might have targeted al-Aurori. Stick around for more of those fears of a wider war. Support for Today Explained comes from Ramp. Thank you. pocket. Ramp says they give finance teams unprecedented control and insight into company spend. With Ramp, you're able to issue cards to every employee with limits and restrictions and automate expense reporting so you can stop wasting time at the end of every month. And now you can get $250 when you join Ramp. You can go to ramp.com slash explained, ramp.com slash explained, R-A-M-P.com slash explained. Cards issued by Sutton Bank, member FDIC,s and conditions apply.

Support for this show comes from the ACLU. The ACLU knows exactly what threats a second Donald Trump term presents. And they are ready with a battle-tested playbook. The ACLU took legal action against the first Trump administration 434 times. And they will do it again to protect immigrants' rights, defend reproductive freedom, fight discrimination, and fight for all of our fundamental rights and freedoms. This Giving Tuesday, you can support the ACLU. With your help, they can stop the extreme Project 2025 agenda. Join the ACLU at aclu.org today. It's Today Explained. I'm Noelle King. Hussein Ibish is a scholar at the Arab Gulf States

Institute in Washington. He was born in Lebanon. He's been studying the Middle East for 30 years. He writes frequently for The Atlantic. And I spoke to him late yesterday. While we been studying the Middle East for 30 years. He writes frequently for The Atlantic. And I spoke to him late yesterday. While we were on the phone, the news was emerging that Israel had killed Salih al-Aurori, the top Hamas deputy. This news was preoccupying everyone, of course, because Aurori was not in Gaza. He was in Lebanon. And Lebanon is not formally at war with Israel, although it does play host to Hezbollah. Now, you heard what the Associated Press' Tia Goldenberg said about where Lebanon fits in here. Dr. Ibish offered me his thoughts on why this killing is significant. It's extremely significant, but we don't yet know exactly what the intention is. Al-Aruri is unique in being among the political leaders outside of Gaza, most of whom are in Qatar.

So it could be that he's seen as as much of a military target as a political one. But Israel has vowed to wipe out all the Hamas leaders. And that could mean then that soon they're going to have to start going after these people who are strictly political in in mostly in Qatar. And that could mean then that soon they're going to have to start going after these people who are strictly political in in mostly in Qatar. And that would create real tensions with what has been a relatively friendly Arab country. Qatar doesn't have full diplomatic relations with Israel, but it did have an Israeli trade office in its capital in the 1990s. And it's been fairly friendly to the Israelis on many registers. You said something interesting, which is we don't know what the intent of this killing is yet. Isn't Israel's intent fairly obvious to kill members of Hamas

if it can get to them? No. Okay, say more. Israel has not tried to kill any other senior Hamas figures outside of Gaza. And the most prominent of them, the most effective of them politically are all in Qatar. So it hasn't done that. And those people in many ways are kind of sitting ducks for Israeli assassins more than somebody in Beirut is, I think it's fair to say. I don't think it is clear, because I think one thing that Israel may be doing here is continuing to raise the ante with Hezbollah in Lebanon. It's been very clear from day one that Hezbollah wants to stay out of this war, that Hamas was hoping that Hezbollah would intervene on its behalf, but that Hezbollah and its Iranian patrons don't want to do that. It's that Gaza is not worth it for them.

They don't want to go to the mat for Hamas. And it's just not something they want to do for very good reasons. It would be a dumb move on both of their parts. But there has been a faction in the government in Israel from day one wanted to take this war to Hezbollah. Israeli Minister Benny Gantz has warned that Israel's military will intervene if the world and the Lebanese government does not stop militants firing on northern Israel. First, because Hezbollah is Israel's most potent plausible enemy. And I think ultimately in hopes of dragging in not just Hezbollah,

but then the United States and Iran, and ultimately, finally, at long last, getting the United States to attack Iran's nuclear facilities. This is something Israel has been trying to, especially Netanyahu, has been trying to promote for aanyahu, has been trying to promote for a couple of decades without any success. The greatest danger facing our world is the marriage of militant Islam with nuclear weapons. To defeat ISIS and let Iran get nuclear weapons would be to win the battle but lose the war. We can't let that happen.

And there have been people in Israel who from day one saw this Hamas attack as a golden opportunity to create a cascade of circumstances that logically might lead to that goal which has not been achieved. We have a cold war going on between Iran and the West. I believe that with ongoing pressure, economic, diplomatic, overt, covert actions, Iran's regime can be replaced. And I think there are many troubling signs that in the past few weeks, that voice inside Israel has been gaining more and more

authority. So it's possible that they may be hoping to give Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah little choice but to retaliate in order to continue escalation. All right, so Israel is reportedly expecting retaliation. You're saying, in fact, that Israel may have been expecting retaliation. That may have been part of the point. Well, they may be hoping for a tit-for-tat set of retaliations that give them the plausible opportunity to strike at Hezbollah without totally alienating the Biden administration. Because the Israeli cabinet early on in the days after October 7 was very close to a decision to attack Hezbollah preemptively and take the war into Lebanon. And the Biden administration made it

very clear that they viewed this with the utmost of alarm. And in order to avoid that, they did the bear hug of Israel and told the Israelis not to do this, but sort of told them they would give them unfettered support in Gaza, which they have. And also they brought these two aircraft carrier strike groups into the eastern Mediterranean as a clear warning to Hezbollah not to do anything stupid themselves. Let me say again, to any country, any organization, anyone thinking of taking advantage of this situation, I have one word, don't. Don't. But I do think Israel may be hoping, or some people in Israel may be hoping, that this

does start to spiral out of control, because there are Israelis who think a wider regional war would be very beneficial to them. Netanyahu, for his own reasons, because he's a man who's fighting to stay out of prison, he's facing very serious corruption charges in Israel, and it's pretty clear to me that he has calculated that the best way to stay out of prison is to stay in power. And the best way to stay in power is to keep this war going at a high level as long as possible. That's also what Hamas wants. Why? Why would they want that? So I think that Hamas wants it because Hamas cannot strike many serious blows against Israel.

They are hoping to provoke Israel into striking blows against itself that they are not capable of inflicting. That's what insurgent and terrorist groups, when they engage in spectacular overkill, think 9-11. Al-Qaeda was hoping we'd do something crazy, and we did. We invaded Iraq, completely crazy, but we did it. And they didn't know what we were going to do, but they hoped we'd do something crazy, and we did. I think Hamas was hoping that Israel would do two things. That first of all, it would reoccupy Gaza, giving them the chance to launch this insurgency. And also they were hoping that either Israel would spread the war to involve other Iranian client or sort of controlled militia groups in the Arab world like Hezbollah, the big enchilada Hezbollah,

or that groups like Hezbollah and the Houthis would come to their rescue and sort of save them from the Israelis. And they expressed a lot of disappointment in the first few weeks when it became clear that Hezbollah wasn't going to do that. But they weren't surprised. Now, I think that for Israelis who want a wider war, they're ultimately hoping to get the United States to attack Iran. There hasn't been a wider war because most people in the four powers that are capable of creating a wider war, Hamas can't do it, they can't make it more or less likely, but it's up really to Israel, the United States, Iran, and Hezbollah, whether there is one or not. And none of those powers have wanted there to be one yet.

And that's why there hasn't been one. And so really, unless Israel is determined to make this war spread, it's not going to. It's going to continue not to spread. Because we can be very sure that Hezbollah, Iran and the United States don't want it to spread. The only question mark is, do the Israelis want it to spread? Maybe they're just trying to assassinate key Hamas figures. And if that's the case, that would be a really good thing because a wider war would be an absolute catastrophe. Dr. Hussein Ibish of the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. You can also read his work in The Atlantic. Today's episode was produced by Miles Bryan and Hadi Mouagdi. It

was edited by Matthew Collette and engineered by David Herman. Laura Bullard and Halima Shah are our fact-checkers today. And I'm Noelle King. It's Today Explained.