Today, Explained - Maximum Pressure

Episode Date: April 12, 2019

Earlier this week, President Trump designated Iran’s Revolutionary Guard a terrorist organization. It is the first time the United States has ever given such a designation to a part of another nation’s government. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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President Trump did something this week that no U.S. president has ever done before. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has announced that the U.S. is designating the Iranian Revolutionary Guard as a terror group. We're doing it because the Iranian regime's use of terrorism as a tool of statecraft makes it fundamentally different from any other government. The first time that we've seen the U.S. government designate part of another country's government as a terrorist organization. This designation is a direct response to an outlaw regime and should surprise no one. I asked Dina Esfandieri what this first means for the world.

She's the author of Triple Axis, Iran's Relations with Russia and China. And we started with what exactly Iran's Revolutionary Guard is. So the guards are a branch of the Iranian Islamic Republic government, effectively. They were created after the 1979 revolution, when Iran's army, their views were not in line with those of the new government, and their people couldn't be trusted. And so the new government created the Revolutionary Guards as a kind of parallel military organization that would uphold the views of the Islamic Republic and that would spread the revolution both inside the country and outside the country. Is there like a comparable government entity that we might know well that helps frame what the Revolutionary Guard is? You mean somewhere else in the world? Yeah, like in another country.

Oh, that is a good question. Honestly, I can't think of one. It's such a different organization and it's so huge. It's got a military branch. It's got a foreign policy branch that's very active in the region in countries like Syria and Iraq. It's got an economic branch with businesses spread throughout Iran. And it grew in strength while Iran was under sanctions because it was very difficult out of business, they would kind of sweep in and establish themselves further. So in the economic sphere, they're huge. And politically, they have a lot of sway, A, because they're obviously a massive organization, and B, because some of their members are quite active in Iranian politics.

In fact, the previous Iranian president, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, was a former member of the guards. I mean, they really touch absolutely everyone, which means that it makes things a little bit difficult. Who is actually going to get into trouble as a result of this designation? I mean, previously, what are we talking about when we talk about a U.S. president declaring something a terrorist organization? It's stuff like al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. What terrorists are is a non-state actor. The Revolutionary Guards don't fit that pattern. They are a state actor. And what does it mean to declare this part of the Iranian government a terrorist organization? What are the consequences? So technically what it means is that all U.S. persons, and this includes businesses,

that are found to either communicate with or help the guards in any way could be punished and be imprisoned under U.S. law. Because with this terror designation, the U.S. can sanction pretty much anybody who talks to or deals with or has any business whatsoever with the IRGC. And because they permeate so much of Iranian society, they're trying to make, I think the word they used was, they're trying to make Iran's economy radioactive. They are trying to prevent anyone from doing business with Iran at any time. The problem is that effectively this was already the case before. So the designation doesn't have that much of an impact other than make a very big political and symbolic statement.

The impact it does have is that it raises the stakes in the region and it makes things a little bit more complicated for a future potential president that might want to engage with Iran. The Trump administration is entrapping future administrations into a permanent state of enmity between the United States and Iran because any movement future administrations would like to do to reduce tensions with Iran, all of those efforts will become severely hampered by this decision. This happened on Monday. How have Iran's leaders responded? The first thing that they did was... Retaliated by doing the same to U.S. forces in the region, specifically mentioning U.S. Central Command and saying that the United States was a state sponsor of terror.

Now, that doesn't necessarily have that much of an impact in Iran. But what it does do is it allows Iranian militias and militias that are affiliated to the Iranian government in the region, perhaps a little bit more wiggle room when it comes to targeting troops that are present there, should they want to do that. Ideally, Iranians will show restraint, much like they have, I would argue, in the last couple of months, given the very tough rhetoric that's coming out of D.C.

But this does raise tensions quite a lot. And being that this move is unprecedented, how have other countries in the region or elsewhere responded to it? I believe the first person to respond was Netanyahu, who actually congratulated President Trump for the move, as did some of the U.S.'s friends and allies in the Middle East region, the Gulf Arab countries, for example. But France was the first government in Europe to come out today with a statement exactly on this issue, urging caution and calm on both sides. The U.S.'s allies in Europe actually have struck a little bit of a different tone. This makes it very difficult for them because they are trying to uphold the Iran nuclear deal that was signed in 2015, the deal that the U.S. walked away from last year. And this makes it very difficult to continue engaging Iran and talking to Iran. And the Europeans don't, unlike the United States, have an ocean separating them from

the Middle East and what's going on in Iran. So one of their number one priorities is to prevent regional instability even further in this region closer to home. And you mentioned Israel. Israel obviously had an election this week. Might that have had something to do with the timing? Absolutely. I mean, the Iranian foreign minister certainly made it seem that way when he announced on Twitter shortly after the designation that this was a gift to Netanyahu on the eve of his potential re-election. And so many have perceived it as something that, a move that is directed towards assisting Netanyahu's re-election. Apart from the Israeli election this week,

are there other reasons this move is happening now in, what, April 2019? The move seems to be the natural progression of Trump's announced maximum pressure campaign on Iran. It began with President Trump's removing of the U.S. from the Iran nuclear deal and the reimposition of a series of sanctions following that since. This isn't just Iran, right? This is Iraq, this is Israel, this is Syria, this is so many things. What does this move entail for all of the Middle East?

It increases the risk of conflict and escalation between the U.S. and Iran in the region. And there are a number of arenas in the region where both countries have influence or are present. Iraq is a very good example. In fact, the Iraqi government came out earlier this week and said that this would make things very difficult for them and that they had tried to lobby the Trump administration hard in order for him not to do this because Iraqis can't afford to side just with Iran or the U.S. They very much need both countries present within their borders and helping them with their reconstruction and rebuilding efforts. The Iraqi government would then be liable because it's dealing with

the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. And this makes it very difficult for U.S. personnel to then be dealing with the Iraqis because they could then be held liable for indirectly dealing with Revolutionary Guards. Dina says the Revolutionary Guard is unlike anything else in the world. After the break, she tells us why. All week I've been talking about tweets people have sent me about the Quip electric toothbrush, but shoutouts to Gchat, which is a primary mode of communication in my life with a few select friends. And one of them had the idea over Gchat. He said, what if you just tell people about how they are in no way brushing their teeth for anywhere close to two minutes, and this toothbrush will make them do that.

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Deuces. Why exactly did Iran create the Revolutionary Guard? What was its purpose in the outset? The Revolutionary Guards were created right after the Iranian Revolution in 1979 because the new government didn't trust Iran's standard army that the Iranians call the Aatish. They didn't think that the army was loyal because it had been loyal to the previous ruler, the Shah of Iran. And so as a result, they carried out a number of purges. And ultimately, they decided to set up the Revolutionary Guards as a new entity that had an ideological leaning, that believed in the revolution, and that would be tasked with spreading the revolution both domestically and outside of Iran's borders. Greetings to you, Khomeini, they chanted, surging toward him,

desperate to touch the hand or robe of the holy man, or to have something, anything, touched and blessed by him. A new and more turbulent era for Iran had begun. The reign of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the man who ruled Iran through four decades, came to an end. So created in 1979 by sort of the hardcore contingent of people who want to spread Iran's revolution, what is the first major test of this new group? The test was whether their ideology was going to survive. Iran, after the revolution, faced a lot of difficulties. It became isolated

on the international scene quite rapidly. We have to remember that Iran under the Shah was a close ally of the U.S., had partners in Europe and South America and the rest of the Middle East. And the Islamic Republic was left alone. Nobody wanted to work with it anymore after the hostage crisis. And on top of that, shortly after the revolution, the Iraqis invaded Iran and started a war. In the frontline cities, Iranian troops hurried to engage the invaders. Local resistance was led by Iran's Revolutionary Guards, who were fiercely loyal to Ayatollah Khomeini.

From their example stemmed the Iranian mood of self-sacrifice in a holy war. And following that, it escalated pretty quickly because most of the world helped Iraq out because they were afraid of the new Islamic Republic, even though the Iraqi leadership used chemical weapons against Iran. And after seven, eight years of war, Iran was left even more isolated, with even less resources and a hell of a lot of reconstruction to do. Okay, so Iran has this revolution in 1979. It creates this organization, this revolutionary guard right after

that. Then it goes into an eight-year war. It comes out weakened. Between, let's say, the late 80s and, you know, 30 years later now, how does this organization become so important? Part of that actually is a result of the international pressure and the successive waves of sanctions that were imposed on Iran. The guards had been empowered by the government. They had a big membership and they had a lot of financial means. And they were increasingly getting involved in the Iranian economy that was, despite difficulties, still managing to grow. And because of their privileged position within the system, when there were contracts to be handed out in different sectors, well, ultimately, the Revolutionary Guards would more often than not get them

or would find a way to enrich themselves as a result of it. And then when the sanctions were imposed, it became even easier for them to become richer because it was harder for smaller businesses to stay afloat when the price of raw materials was increasing and inflation was quite high. And the guards could manage that more easily because they were bigger and richer. It's also important to note that the guards, even though they're viewed as a single giant entity in Iran, they actually aren't. It isn't a monolith.

There are some today who are not as ideological as when the guards were first created. It works on the basis of conscription. So there are a lot of young Iranians that join because they are given a good financial opportunity and don't necessarily believe in what the revolution says. So the guards are interesting today because they don't look like what they did when they were first created. I guess when we think about terrorist organizations, our minds go to these violent cells that are plotting attacks and beheading people. But you make it sound like the Revolutionary Guard is so everyday in Iran, so quotidian. It is an organization that you probably end up dealing with in some way or another on a daily, weekly, monthly basis. Why? Because maybe some of the groceries that you're buying are coming from

an entity that the Revolutionary Guard controls. You might be leasing a space that the Revolutionary Guard owns. You might be unhappy with the way the government is functioning. And so you'll go out and demonstrate and you might get beaten up by somebody in the Revolutionary Guards. So it's undeniable that as the average Iranian, you will come across this organization regularly. And it's always going to be an Iranian man between a certain age of a certain age? No, no, no. The Revolutionary Guards have a very, very wide membership.

There is an older corps that remember the revolution quite fondly, but actually most of them today are very young and they're, you know, just fresh out of school, if they have been to school. And it's just, there's a lack of other opportunities for them. And so the Revolutionary Guards is a good place to turn because you can get paid relatively well and fed and sometimes even have a roof put over your head. So it is a good place to turn to at a time where Iran is struggling economically. And what's the reputation of the organization within the country? Is it revered? Is it, you know, suspect? Well, it depends what happens and how the guards are attacked from the outside. So,

the Revolutionary Guards haven't always been very popular, particularly their plain-clothed militia, the Basij, who are disliked because they are the ones who come and beat people up when they're out on the streets. But for example, when ISIS spread in Iraq and Syria and came relatively close to the Iranian border, so when there's an external threat, support for the guards increase. This designation that happened earlier this week, it will serve to unify Iranians around the revolutionary guards, because ultimately the guards help to secure the country. It's sort of reminiscent of a conversation we just had on the show about Medicare and Obamacare. And by speaking out so forcefully against Obamacare, President Trump actually managed to make it more popular.

Is that the same situation with the Revolutionary Guard? Might his designation on Monday of it as a terrorist organization might make it more popular domestically? Absolutely. It's undeniable that it's going to make the guards more popular, at least for a little while, at the very least. The day after the designation was announced, members of the Iranian parliament who never agree on anything all showed up in Revolutionary Guard's attire to show their support to the guards. I wonder, you know, Trump bullied North Korea and it led to what looked like possible progress before everything sort of fell apart. Could it work here?

You mean bullying Iran? Yeah. The problem is that bullying Iran is not going to work anymore. It had somewhat of an impact prior to the nuclear deal because the policy of sanctioning Iran and isolating it was done in conjunction with trying to engage it and trying to get concessions from it. Once the nuclear deal was signed and Iran made those concessions and implemented the nuclear deal, as has been certified now

multiple times, and the U.S. still walked away from it, this basically proved Iran's Supreme Leader right when he said, you cannot trust the United States, and as such, we don't want to engage with them. For the Supreme Leader, the exercise of dealing with the U.S. was just an effort to see whether it was worth engaging with the U.S. was just an effort to see whether it was worth engaging with the U.S. He believed it wasn't, but he wanted to give his government a chance to try. And they did, and it worked. And it was the U.S. that broke the deal by walking away from it. There is no scenario today where Iran can trust that the U.S. would ever deliver or stick to another agreement after

it walked away from one that was working and one that Iran U.S. would ever deliver or stick to another agreement after it walked away from one that was working and one that Iran was actually implementing. I think the U.S. government is hoping to constrain Iran and to potentially change the government, but this policy is just unifying the Iranian public around the government. And actually, from a PR perspective, Iran is starting to look like the reasonable country and other countries are seeing it that way. Dina Esfandieri is a fellow with Harvard's Belfer Center at the Kennedy School and a fellow at the Century Foundation in New York. I'm Sean Ramos from Just a Regular Fellow at Today Explained. Thanks to Quip Electric Toothbrushes for riding with us for another week.

It's been a journey. You can get your first Quip Electric Tooth toothbrush for $25 at getquip.com slash explained. It comes with a free first pack of refills, G-E-T-Q-U-I-P dot C-O-M slash E-X-P-L-A-I-N-E-D. Have a nice weekend.