Today, Explained - Myanmar wants a revolution

Episode Date: June 2, 2021

Despite a violent terror campaign by the military junta, protesters are still fighting for a new government. The latest conflict is uniting ethnic and religious groups that have long been at odds with one another. Transcript at vox.com/todayexplained. Support Today, Explained by making a financial contribution to Vox! bit.ly/givepodcasts. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Visit connectsontario.ca. It's Today Explained. I'm Halima Shah sitting in for Sean Ramos-Ferrum. Protesters and military in Myanmar have been mired in a bloody conflict for months. It all started back in February when people took to the streets to protest a military coup. The political party led by Aung San Suu Kyi, the National League for Democracy Democracy won parliamentary elections. But the military claimed fraud and detained top NLD leaders. Since then, things have only escalated. At the beginning, we didn't feel like our lives were being threatened.

A stark warning from the UN Special Envoy on Myanmar, quote, a bloodbath is imminent. But I think we got the message loud and clear by the end of March. Today on the show, we'll hear from people who've been resisting Myanmar's military. And we'll find out why this might mark a turning point for a country that has spent most of its history under military rule. Jen Kirby, you're a foreign and national security reporter for Vox.com, and we just heard from someone in Myanmar who described violent military crackdowns on protesters. How did things get so bad? After the coup, thousands and thousands of people in Myanmar took to the streets for these massive protests.

Just hundreds of thousands of people, organized through communities and professions, into a remarkably coordinated show of opposition. They're protesting in big cities like Gangon, and they're also protesting in different corners of the country. There is a real massive outpouring of support for Aung San Suu Kyi and opposition to the military takeover. People are wearing red. They are holding up their fingers in this three-finger salute, which is an homage to the Hunger Games. There are professionals and students who are leading these protests. The force of the protests and the size of the protests were even somewhat unexpected. You know, I had talked to some folks before who had a pretty dismal view about the pro-democracy movement in Myanmar. But these young people, these professionals, I mean, the protests included, you know, a huge cross-section of people and a real groundswell of support and movement of opposition against the coup. And that kind of massive peaceful protest movement continues. But as the weeks ground on, things take a darker turn. A site the anti-coup protest movement never wanted to see,

the death of a protester. March 27th was the bloodiest day to date. More than 100 people were killed today. The U.S. ambassador to Myanmar said security forces are murdering unarmed civilians. The last protest that I went to was a flash protest that happened. It was the army day and that protest involved a lot more running and hiding and regrouping compared to back in February. And since then, it has only gotten worse. More than 800 people have died, according to figures at the hands of the military, and more than 4,000 have been either arrested, charged, or detained. What happens in detention, you know, there's a lot of allegations of torture and abusive practices

beyond that. And right now there's a sense of this military conducting the reign of terror. In one time, forces reported the open fire on mourners at the funeral of a student who was amongst those killed. There are reports of people now becoming fearful of, you know, who to talk to and whom to trust because people are reporting in secret to the police. The military is using people that they've killed, according to reports, to kind of terrorize communities. And at the same time, communities are trying to build up their kind of defenses against the military, trying to fortify neighborhoods. But there is a lot of fear. There is a lot of mistrust. You know, I talked to one protester who used a pseudonym who basically said, you know, when she goes out into the street, she makes sure that she never has anything on her phone because if anybody sees her organizing or coordinating a protest, she doesn't know what will happen to her. have kind of morphed into something a little bit closer to a resistance movement, kind of an acknowledgement that maybe the peaceful protest won't be enough to kind of fight this military.

At the same time, the economy is struggling, and the de facto civilian leader Aung San Suu Kyi remains in prison on trumped-up charges. Ms. Suu Kyi is facing charges that range from illegally possessing walkie-talkie radios to violating state secrets laws. The country seems on the brink of a possible civil war or revolution. So the public is largely angry with the military, but where does the previous government stand on this? Are they trying to retake power? Are they involved in this resistance? Some other members of the NLD have kind of taken

to form their own political party and kind of a government in exile, which has been known as the National Unity Government. And they are fighting for international recognition. And they're also trying to establish kind of a people's defense force to possibly take on the military. And their goal, at least one of the goals that they've stated, is to eventually kind of a people's defense force to possibly take on the military. And their goal, at least one of the goals that they've stated, is to eventually kind of form or become the new democratic government of Myanmar. Who is still supporting the military, if anyone? The military. I mean, I'm sure listeners have heard that in Myanmar, there is a real kind of segregation between the military and the rest of the general public and the military kind of they socialize in their own circles. They have their own media. And so it's a very, very insular institution.

And so there is a lot of support there. side of the military, among the general population, there really seems to be this growing sort of anti-military sentiment that wherever you stood on the political spectrum, wherever you stood in terms of your religion or ethnic background, there is kind of a growing sentiment of we're all in this together against the military. We're talking about a country that has spent most of its 60-year history under military rule. And while protesters are hoping for the best and want this to lead to a revolution, what are the chances this could turn into civil war instead? Yeah, I mean, I think there's just so many question marks that it's really hard to predict

right now. And I think, you know, the discussions of the civil war are serious, but at the same time, it's important to recognize that Myanmar in many ways has been at civil war for the entire course of its history. The difference is that many of these civil wars took place on the borderlands of Myanmar with ethnic armed organizations who've been fighting with the military on and off for decades. And so Myanmar has never fully been at peace. What is different now is that the civil war may become something that engulfs the entire country and includes a population and people who may have not been necessarily involved in fighting the government before. But it is sort of important to keep that in mind when we talk about Myanmar, that, you know,

this country has not really known peace in many ways. When it comes to a revolution, I mean, I've talked to many protesters and also members of ethnic armed groups who really see themselves as embracing a kind of mission to bring democracy to Myanmar and truly believe that they can win and that they will try to win at all costs to establish a democracy. How they will do so is really hard. But what I do find interesting is that among the people who are fighting for this democratic future, they have a sense of optimism that is really kind of remarkable. Thank you. help you save time and put money back in your pocket. Ramp says they give finance teams unprecedented control and insight into company spend. With Ramp, you're able to issue cards to every employee with limits and restrictions and automate expense reporting so you can stop wasting time at the end of every month. And now you can get $250 when you join Ramp.

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please contact Connex Ontario at 1-866-531-2600 to speak to an advisor free of charge. BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. Jen, you talked about over 800 people dying in the wake of these protests, yet somehow people in Myanmar are still optimistic. Why? Because I think this is something where they feel like there's nothing really to lose, which is maybe doesn't sound very optimistic, but there is this idea of everybody is coming together to

defeat a common enemy, which is right now the Myanmar military. And this idea that they could achieve or create something that has never been created before in Myanmar. And I do think there is this sense of like, well, what else can we do? And so there really is no other option but to sort of embrace this very uncertain future and push forward. And at the same time, there are also some really remarkable and positive developments, I would say. You know, Myanmar is a very ethnically diverse country, but ethnic and religious minorities have often faced discrimination, racism, and sometimes downright brutality at the hands of the Myanmar government and the Myanmar military. And you're seeing a real reckoning with that in Myanmar right now,

as it is also plotting its future. And it's really kind of remarkable to see. Have we ever seen anything like this before, where you have various ethnic groups coming together, working towards a common cause in Myanmar? Yeah, we actually have, which is what makes this also very interesting. So in the past democracy protests that Myanmar has Yeah, we actually have, which is what makes this also very interesting. So in the past democracy protests that Myanmar has seen, most notably in the late 1980s and early 90s, where students led a pro-democracy movement, the military kind of followed a similar playbook where it began to crack down. And many of these students and protesters fled to sort of the borderlands of Myanmar, which are often controlled in some cases by ethnic armed organizations, many of which had been fighting the Myanmar

government or military. And those ethnic organizations and their civil arms took in those protesters and sort of gave them shelter and protection, but also kind of help train them. And at the same time that that happened, when Myanmar sort of became a quasi-democracy, a lot of those ethnic groups were not really included in the conversation or the development of democracy. But we're seeing the same thing happen now, where many of these protesters and these students and these professionals who are protesting against the military are now also feeling that they're unsafe, that they're under attack from the military. And so they're seeking haven in these areas, many of which are controlled by these ethnic armed organizations where they're

getting food and shelter. And they're also in some cases learning how to fight there. They're learning how to use weapons. They're preparing for possible warfare. And so you see this alliance, which is born out of this joint opposition to the Myanmar military. And it is somewhat born out of necessity. But there's also, again, this hope for creating a more democratic and equal future for Myanmar. Can you talk about some of these groups that are on the border regions of Myanmar that have basically been in conflict with the military for a long time and are now taking in some of these protesters? Yeah. So, for example, in the Kachin state, there's been an insurgent movement that's been

at war with the Myanmar military on and off for decades, fighting for their independence. The Kachin are a very strong rebel group. With their own hierarchy and their own army, they present a quite formidable opposition to the Myanmar authorities. There's also the Karen people who've basically been at civil war since the creation of the country. We have fought against them for so many years, so we know that Myanmar will not give us equality easily. Not only the Karen, but other ethnicities too. So we have to fight for our rights, but if we cannot make peace in our time, it will be up to the next generation.

And so those places too, it's worth keeping in mind are under attack by the military. These are not exactly safe havens. They are being bombed and shelled. And many people, civilians are being displaced. Some, for example, across the border in Thailand. So these are very precarious places right now. They're not exactly safe, but they feel safer for people who are in opposition to the military because you have, you know, like-minded people, again, who are all united for this common cause. What is the main reason these groups give for fighting for independence? Are they frustrated with the amount of power the military has? And is this a pro-democracy effort or is it something else? A lot of the ethnic armed organizations each have sort of specific goals or aims. Many of them are fighting for greater autonomy or independence, but they're also just fighting for their survival. You know, some of these groups have been brutalized and have

been discriminated against. And so they're sort of standing up for their own interests. And what is really happening or what has happened because of the coup in Myanmar is that a lot of the Burmese majority who were removed from these armed struggles and who didn't even really understand them or maybe thought these ethnic groups were sort of out to advance their own interests now very much realize that these ethnic groups are part of the military's pattern of brutality. And so, you know, it's sort of this idea of like, oh, you know, now they're coming for me. And so you're seeing this recognition of what many of these ethnic minorities and religious minorities have gone through in

Myanmar. And that realization is kind of dawning on the broader population, which is why you're seeing this unity. Hi, this is Naysan Lue, an activist and co-founder of the Free Rohingya Coalition, a network of Rohingya activists and friends of Rohingya. I am based in Germany. I have family, relatives, and a lot of friends in Myanmar, in Rangoon and Rakhine State. I left from Myanmar 20 years ago in 2001. I was born in a town in Rakhine State, but I was raised in Rangoon, former capital of Myanmar. My people back in Rakhine State have been suffering from various types of persecution which amounted to genocide since 1978.

As I want to enjoy the freedom and wanted not to be discriminated, I left from the city where I grew up. In the past on this show, we've talked a lot about the military genocide against the Rohingya. Where does this wave of conflict leave them? Obviously, the most notable kind of crime by the Myanmar military has been the atrocities against the Rohingya, which are a Muslim minority in Rakhine state. And beginning around 2017, hundreds of thousands of Rohingya had to flee to Bangladesh, where they're now in refugee camps because of what the United Nations has basically said amounted to genocide. We would like to thank Gambia for initiating the legal process and Bangladesh for giving us shelter. Now, finally, the verdict recognizes our suffering and the atrocities. We feel at

peace in our hearts. And during that time, the civilian democratic, quasi-democratic government led by Aung San Suu Kyi largely defended the military. But, you know, from one protester I talked to who has really done kind of a total reversal from her position before, you know, she said that she believed Aung San Suu Kyi. She was her hero. She was the leader of Myanmar. She was the inspiration. and so she believed what she said and she trusted in her and now that trust has been broken and i asked her you know what she feels about on song suchi now and she says i hate her because i loved her so much there is a sort of sense of betrayal among some of the protesters that i spoke to. That isn't true for everyone, but I think it is a real recognition of they were, you know, part of a system where they kind of

benefited from the status quo and having the military in power. And once the coup happened and they fought back against it, they no longer had that privilege, right? The military turned on them. And so they can't really deny reality anymore. And it may not be totally satisfying, but I think there is legitimate remorse and legitimate reckoning about some of the willful ignorance, I suppose, of the past. As a Rohingya and activist raising my voice for Rohingya genocide for years, I was hated by majority of the people in Myanmar. But I am now a friend of those people. I am not saying all the people in Myanmar abandon their racist view on Rohingya, but many have changed.

Many are now sympathizing the Rohingya as they are now facing the similar persecution. It seems like Aung San Suu Kyi's supporters are making this 180-degree turn by going from there is no genocide to sorry, we should have believed you. Are religious and ethnic minorities who've been oppressed or ignored by the military and Suu Kyi's government willing to trust this new commitment to unity and change? I think it's really tricky, and I don't think there are necessarily easy answers right now. Again, for those who say that they apologize for not realizing the wrongs done to the Rohingya and other ethnic and religious minority groups, there is a sense of kind of contrition and a stated commitment to making Myanmar better for everyone. And when it comes to, you know,

representatives from some of the ethnic organizations that I've talked to, there is a recognition that, you know, there is a wariness there. There is a concern that perhaps this is a relationship born of necessity. We have to fight the military together. And so you are the closest allies. But there's also a recognition from a lot of ethnic groups that I've talked to that this is a real opportunity, right? sort of a necessity in this fight for many of the protesters who've never experienced anything like this before. And they see a real opportunity to be a part of this movement. And, you know, I think one person said to me, you know, they did apologize. And of course, we're going to be skeptical. And of course, we're going to have our concerns. But how can we pass up this opportunity? You know, everyone is united against the military. This is the chance and we have to seize it, even if we have concerns and fears about what the future may hold. Do the opposition's demands go beyond taking power out of the military's of course, is to establish a federal democratic

union in Myanmar, one which would, you know, be truly democratic, which would recognize the different ethnic groups and give them equal weight and power in a future system built around the idea of a more decentralized system. But that is going to take a lot of effort and time to get there if they can reach that goal. They do not want to go back, right? They do not want to go back to the status quo. They do not want to set the clock back to January 31st and, you know, just put another civilian government in charge where the military can still pull the strings. But talking to a lot of experts and even longtime Burmese activists, they say the military has been a huge part of the government since its existence and imagining a future without it or creating a future without it is going to be a real

real challenge and is a is sort of the great unknown right now. What I want to see in my country is human rights for all, justice for all, and equality for all. Thank you.