Today, Explained - Pelosi in Taiwan

Episode Date: August 2, 2022

China didn’t want Speaker Nancy Pelosi to visit Taiwan. Neither did the White House. Politico’s Alex Ward explains why she went anyway. This episode was produced by Miles Bryan and Jon Ehrens, edited by Matt Collette, fact-checked by Laura Bullard with help from Amanda Lewellyn, engineered by Efim Shapiro, and hosted by Noel King. Transcript at vox.com/todayexplained Support Today, Explained by making a financial contribution to Vox! bit.ly/givepodcasts Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi landed in Taiwan earlier today. All right, I believe we are seeing Nancy Pelosi coming down. I was just deboarded the plane after arriving in Taiwan. Remember, this is the highest level visit by a U.S. official in 25 years, coming at a very sensitive time. China does not want her to be there. China's foreign minister today said, U.S. politicians who play with fire will come to no good end. The U.S.

called that saber rattling, but it should be noted the White House didn't want her there either. So what is Nancy Pelosi doing in Taiwan? What is she not doing in Taiwan? I don't expect her to like stand on a Taiwanese beach and stare across the street with like her arms folded and go like, China, we're here. But I do sort of expect her to make as many small, deep Democratic statements and show her support as possible, because that ultimately is what this trip feels like it's about. That's coming up on Today Explained. The all-new FanDuel Sportsbook and Casino is bringing you more action than ever.

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It's Today Explained. I'm Noelle King. Alex Ward, longtime friend of the show, national security reporter for Politico. Why are so many people losing it over Nancy Pelosi being in Taiwan? Because of the escalation that it portends, it isn't necessarily her visit. It's more what could happen afterward. So you're seeing already escalation between China, where they're sending planes to the middle of the Taiwan Strait that separates Taiwanese island from mainland China. You're seeing ships sail near that sort of border. The leader of China, Xi Jinping, say, hey, don't play with fire here. And this comes amid a pretty tense moment, not already between the U.S. and China,

but as the U.S. is trying to get China to stop helping, or to not help, I should say, Russia in his war against Ukraine. And so having Nancy Pelosi be there, which would make her, the first speaker to be there since 1997, there's no way around that. So then why is she there? What's the official reason she's given if all of this is stressing everyone out? Well, the thing is, she hasn't even given an official reason. When her office provided an itinerary of her visit, it didn't include Taiwan. It mentioned Singapore, it mentioned South Korea, it mentioned Japan. There's no real reason why she's going.

The unofficial reason, the best thing we can surmise from our own reporting and from others, is that, you know, she's fearful she will not be the speaker by this fall. And she has had a decades-long stance of pretty much, you know, China hawkery and standing up for human rights in China. She was in Tiananmen Square shortly thereafter of the, you know, the famous tank and the tank man moment, saying, you know, the U.S. stands for people of China, the U.S. stands for human rights. The three members of Congress had been optimistic about their human rights mission to China

until they themselves went to Tiananmen Square. Democrats Nancy Pelosi from California and Ben Jones from Georgia and Republican John Miller of Washington staged their personal Tiananmen remembrance in front of the international media in a square full of Chinese tourists and security personnel. And so maybe this is sort of a bit of legacy burnish.

Maybe this is, you know, in her final days, she went to Taiwan, stood up for its democracy, gave the middle finger to Chinese leader Xi Jinping, and showed herself to be the true champion of democracy worldwide, not just in the U.S., that she fancies herself to be. Let's put all of this in some context. What is the United States' official policy toward Taiwan? It is that we do not recognize its independence. We haven't done so since 1979, when Jimmy Carter officially made the U.S. recognize mainland China, with Beijing as its capital, and Taiwan

as a separate political entity, basically a breakaway state. The United States of America and the People's Republic of China have agreed to recognize each other and to establish diplomatic relations as of January the 1st, 1979. Within this context, the people of the United States will maintain cultural,, and other unofficial relations with the people of Taiwan. However, it does recognize its ability to defend itself from, you know, would-be invaders, which of course would be China. And we have sold billions of weapons and missiles and planes and all other kinds of things to Taiwan to help it defend itself and create what some analysts would call a porcupine, quote unquote, which is an island so full of missiles, so full of weapons that it would basically prick China if it tried to take the island by force. What is China's policy toward Taiwan? And I mean both its official policy and also the way it

behaves toward Taiwan. The official policy is that there is, you know, one China. And by the way, I should say that the U.S. believes in that too, that it's the one China policy. Taiwan is a separate entity. Beijing believes that Taipei is not its own capital, that it belongs to China. And so the sort of official policy is that eventually there will be the re-education of the island. And so it's been decades in which a democratic Taiwan has built up basically off the shores of a very communist China. And so the goal is perhaps economic integration, perhaps a change in Taiwan's own politics, or just given enough time, there will be a re-unification. The thing that worries a lot

of people and a lot of people here in the U.S. especially is that China may grow impatient. And especially with a authoritarian leader in Xi Jinping and especially with other internal politics, dictators of politics, too. We always seem to forget that. There are people that might consider Xi weak for allowing the U.S. to still defend Taiwan. So this is sort of leading to some concerns that China's gearing up for an invasion of Taiwan, not imminently, not anytime soon, but soon enough. The Chinese timeline, let's say, and I'm making this up, is like 20 years from now. Well, the American timeline and, of course, the Taiwanese timeline is never, never do that. Okay, so Nancy Pelosi's visit is making a lot of people tense.

Did she get approval for this trip from President Biden? No, the opposite. Well, actually, not even the opposite. Biden didn't call her, as far as we know, and say, please don't go. What Pelosi heard was a lot of anger through the media about what U.S. officials were thinking. White House officials, oh, why would we start another fight when we've got the Russia-Ukraine thing going on, and we don't want China to actually start helping Russia in that fight?

But what's been interesting, the administration stance has changed, and changed in the sense that they're like, look, you know, if she's going to go, we're going to do what we can to defend her. It's her right to go. You know, we're never going to, you know, kowtow to what a Chinese leader is saying. You know, if she wants to go, we will not be intimidated. And this was said from the White House podium. Put simply, there is no reason for Beijing to turn a potential visit consistent with longstanding U.S. policy into some sort of crisis or conflict, or use it as a pretext to increase aggressive military activity

in or around the Taiwan Strait. President Biden didn't want her to go. What about her Republican colleagues, many of whom share her hawkishness on China? What do they think about this? They're delighted. It's a big deal. And look, let's not, you know, sugar this. It is a massive deal that she's going because what it shows is that it's the highest ranking Democrat in decades to show up in Taiwan. And it's the highest ranking American to show up since 1997 in Taiwan. And Republicans like it because there has been sort of a shift in Republican thinking on Taiwan, and I should say among some Democrats as well, but mostly Republicans, they don't like that the U.S. has what's called a strategic ambiguity stance towards Taiwan, which basically means that if China were to invade Taiwan, the U.S. is not going to signal

what it's going to do, whether it's going to defend Taiwan or whether it's not. Republicans have told me they've been very open about this. We should get rid of this. Get it done. We will defend Taiwan is what they want. Why make it ambiguous? And that's not what Pelosi is going to Taiwan to say, as far as we know. But it does sort of show a level of closeness and integration that could lead eventually down the line to like, well, why wouldn't we defend Taiwan? Are you willing to get involved militarily to defend Taiwan if it comes to that? Yes.

You are? That's a commitment we made. And I should note, President Joe Biden has three times said the president is simply committed to provide Taiwan with the military means to defend itself as he has in Ukraine. You know, it's sort of this fascinating moment where, you know, especially former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was like, hey, she should absolutely go. And then you've had the former defense secretary, Mark Esper, also for Trump, who was just there basically to say, you know, the one China policy has outlived its usefulness. I think if the speaker wants to go, she should go. So she's, again, not going

there to back a Republican stance. But it's interesting that Republicans are backing her trip and Democrats are the ones who are sort of mostly wary about it. But I also want to reiterate, you know, Pelosi has bucked the Democratic Party for years on China, and mostly she's been a fierce advocate for small d democratic norms in that country for human rights. And that, you know, those issues have become increasingly problematic as Xi Jinping's leadership continues. You know, the crackdown on Hong Kong, the detention, the forcible detention of Uyghurs in Xinjiang, and his consolidation of power to the point that he could be leader for life. So, you know, her going to Taiwan at a moment when there's fear that eventually there could be an invasion, you know, it's unsurprising that she feels that way and is doing this and that Republicans are backing her because she has been sort of on

her hawkish stance for China more, I would say, on where Republicans have longer been than where Democrats are. Alex, do you think Taiwanese leaders feel that they're running a risk with this visit? Or are they happy to have Nancy Pelosi there, even though it's drawn a lot of attention from China? I mean, a bit of both. I mean, I've talked to some Taiwanese officials and they are saying, look, you know, we're worried about what this means. There's no illusions that China is just going to sit this one out, right? They're expecting maybe missiles to be shot in the Taiwan Strait, near Taiwan itself. More planes, more ships near the island, perhaps some cyber attack

or something. There's tons of possibilities. So they're a bit fearful, right? It's not like this will be, this will just move on by. right? It's it's not like this will be this will just move on by. And of course, it's not like a war is going to break out because of this visit. But the chance of miscalculation rises and that doesn't make anyone feel good. But the other part of it is like, yeah, hell yeah, we're happy to have Nancy Pelosi here because it shows how close America and Taiwan are now, you know, how much the U.S. really does seem to care about the plight of Taiwan and sort of all those other things. And sort of interesting because, you know, at the inauguration, Taiwan's lead representative,

not ambassador, but lead representative to the U.S. showed up there, which was the first time in a while. And then in early 2021, the U.S. ambassador to Palau went to Taiwan, being the first U.S. envoy to be there since, you know, the U.S. changes policy in 1979. So there's been sort of a closer relationship now. And Pelosi going there is just basically the icing on the cake. As Speaker Pelosi's plane landed in Taiwan, The Washington Post published an op-ed she'd written called Why I'm Leading a Congressional Delegation to Taiwan. Quote, Chinese Communist Party's accelerating aggression. Our congressional delegation's visit should be

seen as an unequivocal statement that America stands with Taiwan, our democratic partner, as it defends itself and its freedom. Support for Today Explained comes from Aura. Aura believes that sharing pictures is a great way to keep up with family, and Aura says it's never been easier thanks to their digital picture frames. They were named the number one digital photo frame by Wirecutter. Aura frames make it easy to share unlimited photos and videos directly from your phone to the frame.

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He's a national security reporter for Politico. Alex, what is China saying about Pelosi's visit to the U.S.? What is Xi Jinping saying to his own people? What is he DMing to Taiwan's leaders? What do we know for certain about how China feels here? So they're unhappy, right? So what they're planning, again, is some sort of increased aggression in the sense of missile strikes into the water, airplane incursion, ships, etc. But what they've been saying is like, look, in a call that we're told lasted more than two hours,

Xi warned President Biden, those who play with fire will perish by it. It is hoped that the U.S. will be clear eyed about this. And he says that a lot. It's a pretty evocative phrase. But Chinese staterun media commentators have basically been threatening and right they take their cues from the leader and from the government like they would consider shooting down pelosi's plane there's no real risk of that sorry i should not say no real risk it's like you know point zero zero zero one percent you know that would that would be a calamitous uh moment but there is fear in the

white house and elsewhere from what the chinese are saying that like this is going to lead to short-term perhaps medium-term escalation and that's something you know no one can really afford at the moment especially with the russia ukraine thing going on so you know what china is basically saying is like you should have stopped her from going uh you know joe biden the fact that you didn't is a signal to us that you really are trying to escalate this moment because, look, it's a Democratic Speaker of the House under a Democratic president. And, you know, whether or not we know that it's kind of hard for Biden to tell Pelosi what to do, that doesn't translate well elsewhere in the world. They go, OK, well, obviously this is a signal, even a wink-wink signal.

So a very unhappy China about this event. What do China's threats about Taiwan actually mean? What has happened in the recent past that we might worry about? Well, I think we should first know that even though they might be sending signals to the U.S., it's mostly for a domestic audience, right? We got to remember where Xi Jinping is here. And I try to always emphasize dictators have politics, too. So Xi Jinping has a party congress this fall, the 20th Communist Party Congress, in which he is both trying to finalize his forever rule and trying to get past some of his own policy preferences. And there are parts of that Communist Party that do not want him to lead for life and do also consider him weak.

And how weak does this make Xi Jinping look if Nancy Pelosi lands in Taiwan, you know, weeks, months before that party comes? It is unsurprising then that Xi and his apparatus is putting out tons of messages signaling strength, signaling they would shoot down the plane, showing that they would do more military stuff. If Speaker Pelosi visits Taiwan, said the Chinese foreign affairs spokesman, it would grossly interfere in China's internal affairs. know, boisterous about this visit. He warned the Chinese military would never sit idly by. And again, part of this is just sort of what happens in China, right? When something goes wrong, you show your strength, you roar a bit. But of course, the problem, everyone knows,

like China doesn't want at the moment a war with Taiwan because it doesn't feel like it's ready. And it would basically shift the entire narrative of what China is trying to do, which is a quote unquote peaceful rise and could jeopardize its perhaps ultimate goal of being the world's top power, right? If it effectively launches World War III. So it is for the US, you know, in hopes of like, why not try to stop Pelosi from going, especially if you do, you could make the Biden administration look weak. So that's a win-win. But it is also mostly for the domestic audience of like, she is unhappy and he will respond strongly if this happens. So it's a bit of a dual game here. Why did Nancy Pelosi's plane go out of its way to avoid the

South China Sea? Is this like polite symbolism? China wouldn't really shoot down Speaker Pelosi's plane, would it? Probably not. But like, why take the risk? I think of it this way. I know it's not a perfect parallel, but like, but I've flown to Korea a lot. You know, we used to go over Russia, doesn't now. But there was always a moment when you came down over the Arctic through Russia. And the fastest way would be to go over North Korean airspace. The plane avoids it. You go around North Korea and then you land at the airport. Part of it, of course, is North Korea hasn't granted access to a Korean airline. So why take the risk? Why go anywhere near that airspace? So again, not a perfect parallel, but why even take that risk in South China Sea? And or you're trying to do a subtle signal that like, hey,

I'm going to visit Taiwan. I'm not here to be provocative towards you, China. If China and Taiwan were to go to war, what would that look like? Basically, what you're looking at is, you know, China is going to look to obliterate Taiwan with just a barrage of missiles even before any troops show up. There are just so many missiles already pointed at Taiwan right on the other side of the strait. You know, you would take out large parts of Taipei, a lot of its own missile systems. And you also want to do that because it's a pretty treacherous, you know, 110 or so mile trip across the strait. And Taiwan has a lot of its own missiles and advanced airplanes on its own.

So if you're China, you're basically trying to just sort of mow the grass, let's say, before you even set foot on Taiwanese beaches. And Taiwan has fortified its beaches already, but, you know, there are some of them that can be landed on. And so what most people have sort of come out to in terms of war games is China would very likely win. Of course, a lot depends on whether or not the U.S. and Japan and other countries get involved, but even so, likely China would win, but not necessarily the victory we're all thinking about. They would probably take the northern part of the island. Taipei would probably still be in Taiwan's hands. But then you have a currently already dangerous situation

made way more dangerous and way more fraught by having China right on the Taiwanese capital's doorstep and probably always threatening even more. And that gives China even greater leverage over this issue, but frankly, global politics. Alex, would the U.S. get involved if China and Taiwan went to war? What do we know about this? The U.S. has a policy of strategic ambiguity.

So we do not say whether or not we will defend Taiwan, even though we've given billions of dollars for Taiwan to defend itself. That's basically our policy. You, Taiwan, defend yourself. We'll help you do so. But whether or not we will come to your defense will leave strategically ambiguous. Now, President Joe Biden three times has said the U.S. will come and defend Taiwan. And each time his staff has walked back, has commented, the policy hasn't changed. He himself has said that. But, you know, when you're on three occasions and you're the president, kind of go, yes, it is our policy to defend Taiwan. That ups the ante. That's almost, you know, de facto changes the policy. You know, whether a future president sort of continues that

or follows a strategic ambiguity since 1979, we don't know. It does feel, right, it does feel like, you know, if it was 50-50 before, it's like 55-45 now that the U.S. would do so, in which case we're talking about really a massive conflict here, which would also bring in, you know, Japan, probably South Korea, other U.S. allies, and who knows what else. It would be as close to World War III, if not World War III, than you'd ever see. What, Alex, is a war between China and Taiwan most likely to start over? Well, anything that could spark a miscalculation and lead to mistrust between the U.S.,

Taiwan, and China. And Pelosi's visit isn't like the perfect thing for that. But it's darn close. Because it feels like, right, if you're from if you're in Beijing right now, you're going again, you know, the second in line to the presidency, I've just present and the vice president themselves, it's a speaker of the house of the same party as the president, going to Taiwan to basically go democracy, small d, you know, is good. Human rights is good. We stand by Taiwan. Then you have Chinese military exercises in response to that because of Xi Jinping's own political needs. You know, he's got to act tough, which will then lead to some sort of perhaps

stronger response from Taiwan and the U.S. And who knows, this could spiral out of control. That's sort of been the big issue here, is that something small-ish causes a series of miscalculations and escalations that eventually leads to someone doing something very stupid and starts a war. Again, I wouldn't say Pelosi's visit is it. We have precedent, right? Former Speaker Newt Gingrich was there in 1997. Tons of American lawmakers have gone to Taiwan. This isn't new. But the fact that China's responding so angrily to this could lead them to do something dumb, which leads Taiwan and the U.S. to do something dumb. And then everyone just sort of dumbs upwards into a war. There has always been an inescapable tension at the heart of U.S. policy towards Taiwan. We recognize one China.

China is the country with which we have relations. But we're still helping to defend this island that China wants to reintegrate to defend itself. It was always going to be a band-aid over an irreconcilable problem. And so the reason it becomes such an issue is because, you know, it's a tinderbox, right? It's so fraught with danger. There's so many potential pathways to miscalculation that the last thing you want to do

is just sort of light the match. Pelosi going there isn't necessarily the match, right? But it is, like, her basically lifting, you know, taking the matchbook out of her pocket and going, hmm? So there's a reason everyone's sort of angry about this, and especially with the time that we're in, like, do you really want to even risk a second bigger fight? Not that it's likely, but do you even want to risk it?

And the problem with Pelosi's visit is that it does risk that unnecessarily. Today's show was produced by John Ahrens and Miles Bryan. It was edited by Matthew Collette and fact-checked by Laura Bullard, Tori Dominguez, and Amanda Llewellyn. The rest of the team includes Halima Shah, Hadi Mawagdi, Victoria Chamberlain, Avishai Artsy, and my co-host Sean Ramos-Firm. Our supervising producer is Amina El-Sadi. Thank you for the music, Breakmaster Cylinder and Noam Hassenfeld.

We're distributed on public radio stations by WNYC. And here's a thought. If you like the show, rate us and review us on Apple Podcasts. If you don't like the show, Sean, what's your Gmail address? We'll get back to you. I'm Noelle King. Today Explained is part of the Vox Media Podcast Network. you