Today, Explained - Putin’s war spills into space

Episode Date: March 10, 2022

Russia has threatened to let the International Space Station plummet. The Verge’s Loren Grush explains the Star Wars. This episode was produced by Will Reid, edited by Matt Collette, engineered by Paul Mounsey, fact-checked by Laura Bullard, and hosted by Noel King. Transcript at vox.com/todayexplained   Support Today, Explained by making a financial contribution to Vox! bit.ly/givepodcasts Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Ten, nine, eight, seven, six. Coming up on main engine start. Twenty-three years ago, the first module of the International Space Station launched into orbit. Liftoff of the Proton rocket on the Zarya control module. The International Space Station is underway. It was the start of an era in which the U.S. and Russia would cooperate. Their citizens living, working, even eating together aboard the shared station. But now that relationship is fracturing. Space travel is probably the greatest form of

collaboration between the U.S. and Russia. Lauren Grush is a senior reporter at The Verge. And right now that feels like it might be in jeopardy. I'm Noelle King. Coming up on today explained how Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine has reached the final frontier. across the GTA from Real Canadian Superstore with PC Express. Shop online for super prices and super savings. Try it today and get up to $75 in PC Optimum Points. Visit superstore.ca to get started. Lauren Grush of The Verge, I don't think I realized just how much the U.S. and Russia have had to cooperate in space. What's the history of how this happened? Well, let's go all the way back to the early days of the U.S. space program.

In fact, let's go back to October 4th, 1957. That was the date that the Soviet Union launched Sputnik. Radio signal transmitted by the Soviet Sputnik, the first man-made satellite as it passed over New York earlier today. And this launch shocked the world. Because if you have the capability to put an artificial satellite into Earth orbit, then you might also have the same capability to put a nuclear weapon on an intercontinental ballistic missile that could potentially reach the United States.

In its orbit, 560 miles above the Earth, the satellite reached a speed of 18,000 miles an hour, circling the globe once every 96 minutes. And it also prompted a lot of soul-searching in the United States about how we should invest in space and space research. Soviet films of student groups tracking the satellite underscore the emphasis on science in Russian schools. It is a challenge that President Eisenhower has said America must meet to survive in the space age.

And experts will say that Sputnik officially kicked off the space race when the U.S. and the USSR were competing for dominance in space. And that's how we got that famous JFK speech in front of Congress. Now it is time to take long astride. Time for a great new American enterprise. That the U.S. would land a man on the moon by the end of the decade in the 1960s. Achievement which in many ways may hold the key to our future on Earth. Even in the earliest days of the space race when we were still just sending people to

orbit, there were discussions between the U.S. and the Soviet Union about ways that the space programs between these two nations could collaborate and share data. Those talks occurred under President Kennedy, and so when he was assassinated, they fell apart. So fast forward, the U.S. was the first to land a person on the moon in 1969. Tranquility Base here. The Eagle has landed. Roger, Tranquility. We copy.

And while the Soviet space program tried to reach that goal, they were never able to. That's one small step for man, one giant leap for mankind. So then the 1970s come, and the relationship between the two space powers becomes much more collaborative. And it culminates in this really incredible mission in 1975 known as the Apollo-Soyuz Test Project. project. And that's where we see an American Apollo spacecraft dock in Earth orbit with a Soviet Soyuz spacecraft. And so astronauts from the United States and cosmonauts from the Soviet Union actually met in space. They shook hands with each other. They ate together. They shared some Russian borscht that was labeled as vodka, as a joke. And they did some science experiments together.

And it was a really great collaborative project. And it was in the middle of the Cold War, which is astonishing. Right. This moment is often considered the end of the space race, but I think it just goes to show that we've always had somewhat of a frenemy relationship with the Soviet Union and now the Russians. When it came to space, there was always an intent to collaborate, even when we were at odds, you know, militarily and economically. How eventually does that get us to the International Space Station, which is a form of collaboration that is far greater than probably anything the U.S. and Russia had tried on Earth?

Well, both the U.S. and the Soviet Union had wanted to build a space station. Tonight, I am directing NASA to develop a permanently manned space station and to do it within a decade. And the Soviet Union had their own station called Mir, which was in orbit from 1986 to 2001. And starting in the 90s, our space shuttle began docking with Mir. In fact, the commander of the first shuttle mission to Mir likes to say his handshake with the cosmonauts when the hatch opened ended the Cold War. After 20 years, our spacecraft are docked in orbit again. Our new era of space exploration has begun. This really proves,

I think, that Russians and Americans can work together and that we can make this international space station project successful. And I can't tell you how much I appreciate it. And then in the early 90s, under President Clinton, the U.S. and Russia decided to collaborate on a space station together. And in 1998, the first module of that space station, the International Space Station, was launched into orbit. How exactly do two countries who were once very hostile to each other decide that they're going to split the responsibility of running something really high stakes like a space station? So the International Space Station is actually

laid out into two complements. You have the Russian side and the American side. So we're going into the Russian segment. Be ready. You don't need a passport either. Each side are made up of modules that each country has made and launched themselves. And the different sides do different things. So the Russia-controlled section is in charge of propulsion. So if you ever need to boost the space station's orbit, move out of the way of space debris, the Russians control that.

But in terms of our side, you know, we do plenty ourselves. The United States is responsible for electrical generation. So it's very much a symbiotic relationship. And that's how it was designed so that we have to rely on one another. And that way, you know, it's a great collaborative tool in that respect. And we have command centers in both Houston and Moscow, and they're constantly in contact to make sure that the International Space Station is running and operating safely. And even though there's a Russian half and an American half, I'm imagining that the astronauts do things like eat dinner together, hang out after work together.

Oh, absolutely. It's meant to be a free-flowing place where they're constantly working together. In fact, Russian cosmonauts will come to Houston to train while NASA astronauts will go to Moscow to train. They have to learn Russian in order to go to the space station, and the cosmonauts need to know English as well. In fact, when NASA retired its space shuttle in 2011, the U.S. had to rely on Russian rockets to get its astronauts to the International Space Station. We didn't have a way to get our people to the ISS, so we had to use the Soyuz. The interesting thing about this is that things on Earth between the United States and Russia

have not been perfect over the last couple of years. Has this collaborative relationship been in trouble before? Absolutely. And probably the most recent scenario is in 2014 when Russia invaded Crimea. And that was definitely a really difficult time for NASA and Roscosmos, the Russian space program. In 2014, we were still reliant on Russia to send our astronauts to the International Space Station. So we couldn't completely dissolve that partnership. We're less reliant on Russian rockets today because we have the SpaceX Crew Dragon. It launched its first humans to the International Space Station in 2020. And so we have that option to send our astronauts to the ISS.

We don't need the Russian Soyuz rocket anymore. However, we still need to work together when it comes to the International Space Station because we are reliant on various Russian systems to keep the space station afloat. So it's not as if we can completely dissolve, but we are in a much more powerful position than we were back when the Crimea invasion occurred. Thank you. you save time and put money back in your pocket. Ramp says they give finance teams unprecedented control and insight into company spend. With Ramp, you're able to issue cards to every employee with limits and restrictions and automate expense reporting so you can stop wasting time at the end of every month. And now you can get $250 when you join Ramp. You can go to ramp.com slash explained, ramp.com slash explained,

r-a-m-p.com slash explained. Cards issued by Sutton Bank. Member FDIC, terms and conditions apply. BetMGM, authorized gaming partner of the NBA, has your back all season long. From tip-off to the final buzzer, you're always taken care of with a sportsbook born in Vegas. That's a feeling you can only get with BetMGM. And no matter your team, your favorite player, or your style, there's something every NBA fan will love about BetMGM. Download the app today and discover why BetMGM is your basketball home for the season.

Raise your game to the next level this year with BetMGM, a sportsbook worth a slam dunk, an authorized gaming partner of the NBA. BetMGM, a sportsbook worth a slam dunk and authorized gaming partner of the NBA. BetMGM.com for terms and conditions. Must be 19 years of age or older to wager. Ontario only. Please play responsibly. If you have any questions or concerns

about your gambling or someone close to you, please contact Connex Ontario at 1-866-531-2600 to speak to an advisor free of charge. BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. Lauren Grush, senior science reporter at The Verge. Over the past couple of weeks, there has been one voice in particular,

one very loud voice, threatening the future of the International Space Station. Who is this gentleman, and what has he been saying? This gentleman is Dmitry Rogozin. He's the head of Roscosmos, Russia's state space corporation. And he's just been very vocal on Twitter these past couple of weeks, saying things that you would hear from a cartoon villain, making threats that people aren't sure whether or not we should take seriously. What is the scariest threat that Rogozin is making?

Well, perhaps the scariest threat was when he insinuated that the ISS could come crashing down on the US or in Europe because of the sanctions that have been placed on Russia. There is also the option of dropping a 500-ton structure on India and China. Do you want to threaten them with such a prospect? The ISS does not fly over Russia, so all the risks are yours. As we said before, the Russians are responsible for the propulsion on the International Space Station. So what does that look like? In order to boost the space station's orbit or maneuver it, the Russians will dock a cargo capsule to the International Space Station. These are spacecraft that bring supplies to the International Space Station, but they also have thrusters on them. So once they are docked with the ISS, they can give the

space station a bit of a push in order to raise its orbit or maneuver it. Also, we can rely on the thrusters that are embedded in the Sevesta module, which is also a Russian module. So the point is, we rely on Russia to do these maneuvers. And there is some truth to what Rogozin is saying, that if the Russians were to just completely bow out, we would need to come up with another solution for how to boost the ISS. That is rather terrifying, especially coming from a guy who's in a position of such great power. Has he continued banging this drum? I mean, has someone at the Kremlin told him, cut it out? Like, you can't just go on doing this? Oh, no, he's been going strong these past few days. But he's known for his bluster and making very provocative comments like these. In fact, many years ago when we were developing new capabilities to send our astronauts to the ISS,

he made a comment about how NASA could use a trampoline to get its astronauts to orbit. He loves to make jokes in the most simple terms. So I would take all of the things that he said with a grain of salt. However, they do take on a much more sinister tone in a time like this. The head of the Russian Space Agency, Dmitry Rogozin, posting this video on social media threatening to abandon American astronaut Mark Vande Hei at the station. He's supposed to return home on a Russian ship in just three weeks. The most recent is he's gotten into a very spicy Twitter exchange with Scott Kelly, a former NASA astronaut. I was just enraged that he, the Roscosmos said that, you know, they were going to leave an American crew member behind. I never thought I would ever

hear anything so outrageous. And he recently said that Russia would no longer sell rocket engines to the United States, saying that, I don't care how they get there, they can ride on their broomsticks for all I care. Who is Dmitry Rogozin? And how did he get to be where he is, despite seeming to have a very volatile attitude? Sure. Well, there is some important context here. So back when Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, Rogozin was actually a high-ranking member of Putin's government. He was a deputy prime minister. And so when that invasion occurred, he was personally sanctioned by the U.S. after that. So he's not allowed to visit the United States. I think he is reacting to further sanctions in a very volatile way

because of that history. So you have astronauts hopping between Houston and Moscow, presumably, I would think, just kind of staying out of it. But the guy who is running the Russian space program, which collaborates so deeply with the United States, cannot actually come to the United States because he's been sanctioned. Right. Has that proven to be problematic at all? It's definitely made things interesting. You know, for instance, the NASA administrators have to usually schedule a trip to Moscow in order to meet with him. And in fact, the most recent NASA administrator, Bill Nelson,

he had talked about potentially going to Moscow to meet with Rogozin. But last I checked, those plans are indefinitely on hold. What would happen if Russia decided, OK, this has gone too far. We want to pull out of the International Space Station. We're done. We're done with the U.S. and we're done with this collaboration. What would happen next?

That is the biggest question on the docket right now. NASA and Roscosmos are continuing to operate the space station normally. There hasn't been any changes in that regard. So no need to panic just yet. But yes. From what I understand, we would need to come up with some kind of contingency plan for this propulsion system. And one thing that we could do potentially is use our own cargo spacecraft to boost the space station. So we have two spacecraft that we send to the International Space Station

periodically. And those are the SpaceX Crew Dragon and the Northrop Grubman Cygnus spacecraft. In fact, there's a Cygnus spacecraft at the ISS right now. And it's actually going to test out a new orbit boosting capability this April. So the timing is really great there. However, using these systems to maneuver the ISS is not a long-term plan. We've never really done that before. So we would need to come up with some kind of design or, you know, re-engineer them just to make sure that that is a long-term plan. I think the biggest problem, though, would be what happens to

the ISS in the long term. So for now, we have an agreement with Russia to collaborate on the ISS through 2024. The Biden administration wants to extend that to 2030, but the Russians have not signed on yet. The writing on the wall seems bad for that to happen at the moment. So we need to come up with a plan for what we're going to do when the space station ends. And if that is 2024, that's right around the corner. Now we've come up with a tentative plan that NASA released earlier this year. But that plan relies on using Russian Progress spacecraft to bring the space station down over the ocean. Wow.

So we would have to come up with an alternative plan. And like I said, 2024 is not far away. And we'd also need to make the decision, OK, do we want to continue using the space station beyond 2024 without Russia? I think that's a big question mark as well. Lauren, do we know how the astronauts and the cosmonauts on board the International Space Station feel about this conflict? We don't, and that's probably the question I get asked the most. Are they hanging out? From all the context clues I can gather, I would imagine that they are just not talking about it,

or if they are talking about it, we'll never know what they're saying. But yes, I imagine it would be an incredibly awkward situation. There are seven people on board the ISS right now, four Americans, two Russians, and a German astronaut from the European Space Agency. So I would love to be a fly on the wall for those dinner conversations, but for now, that is going to be an eternal mystery. I love that there is a German in there as well.

Might as well make it even more awkward. And yet, I mean, these people are professionals, right? Absolutely. And in fact, they're going to have to maintain their professionalism when it comes to doing some crew swaps later this month. So one big thing that people are keeping an eye on is the fact that Mark Vandehei, who's been on the space station for the past year, is coming home this month on a Russian Soyuz capsule. And he'll be riding with those two cosmonauts that are on the space station right now. And that means he's going to have to rely on Russia and NASA is going to have to rely on Russia to get him home safely.

So I think they all want to put those politics aside to make sure that everyone gets home in one piece. What would it mean for this partnership to end? Well, I think in terms of NASA, the U.S. is in much better shape now than it was when Russia invaded Crimea. Like I said, we aren't as dependent on Russia anymore for a variety of things. And in fact, we've been distancing ourselves from them for quite a while. And right now, NASA's big flagship program is the Artemis mission, which is to send the first woman and the first person of color to the moon. And Russia is very absent from that. We are making partnerships with Artemis with other countries, but Russia has been very vocal that it's not a fan of our Artemis program.

Wow. And they have been discussing ways that they can collaborate with China, Russia has, instead of working with the US. So in terms of our future partnerships with Russia, there isn't a lot going on. And right now, we have a very robust private space industry that has been just ballooning over the past few decades. And so we no longer have to rely on Russian rockets to get to the ISS. We now have SpaceX's Crew Dragon to do that. I don't want to knock the importance of space collaboration, but we are standing on our own much better these days. And possibly the age of collaboration with Russia in space is over.

It's possible. However, I don't think that Russia quite wants that. One thing that a lot of people are noting here is that the International Space Station is Russia's shining star in their space program right now. up in corruption. It's been losing money. They really don't have much to point to other than the ISS as a beacon of hope for their program. So it really behooves them to continue working with us. They're not doing as many bold things as we are. And while they've tried to go back to the moon, they just haven't made it happen. So I think it's in their best interest to continue working with us. But I do think we are seeing a future where we are no longer as interested in working with them. Lauren Grush is a senior reporter at The Verge.

Today's show was produced by Will Reed, edited by Matthew Collette, engineered by Paul Mouncey, and fact-checked by Laura Bullard. I'm Noelle King. It's Today Explained. Мы вот фол...