Today, Explained - Remember, remember the 6th of November

Episode Date: October 15, 2018

Midterm elections are three weeks and a day away. Vox’s Dylan Scott says if you think the country's polarized, you ain't seen nothing yet. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Support for Today Explained this week comes from Quip Electric Toothbrushes. With Quip, you can get brush heads delivered to your door every three months for just $5. And if you go to getquip.com slash explained right now, your first refill pack is free with your Quip Electric Toothbrush. That's G-E-T-Q-U-I-P dot com slash explained. Remember, remember the 6th of November. Midterm elections are just three weeks and a day away. And before you vote, you just have to ask yourself one question.

Are you white? Are you Latino? Are you black? Are you a man? Are you a woman? Are you straight? Are you LGBTQ? Are you Christian?

Are you not? Dylan Scott has been covering the midterms for months at Vox. I think the story of the midterms for both Democrats and Republicans is identity politics. We're not talking about like the granular details of the Republican tax bill or, you know, the finer points of healthcare policy or even on something like immigration. We're just kind of playing to people's sort of core base, almost primal emotions. Of course, identity politics isn't new to American politics, but Dylan says something's changed. I've been thinking about this. It's hard to put a finger on what is different exactly, but I think just sitting here in 2018, what sticks out to me is that the parties are running in opposite directions.

The Republicans are really leaning into kind of white, fear-based identity politics. They're preying on people's fears of outsiders, of the other, of people with brown skin, to be frank with you. And obviously a lot of that comes of the other, of people with brown skin, to be frank with you. And obviously a lot of that comes from the top down. That was the hallmark of Donald Trump's presidential campaign.

They're bringing drugs. They're bringing crime. They're rapists. And some, I assume, are good people. And the Democrats on the other side are really leaning into this idea of being sort of aspirational. They have young, diverse candidates of color. There are so many firsts this year. There's Rashida Tlaib.

She is poised to become the first Muslim woman in Congress in the country. I'm Deb Haaland, and Congress has never heard a voice like mine because there's never been a Native American woman in Congress. Vermont now has the possibility of voting in the first transgender governor, Christine Helplist. And so I think, you know, even though we think of identity politics as sort of a surface level superficial thing, in another way, those are sort of very core values for both parties. All right, well, let's go deeper on both of them, starting with the Republicans. What are they up to? The Republicans. I mean, I've tried to think of more delicate or nuanced ways to put it,

but I think saying that they're focusing on white fears is not an exaggeration or an overstatement. I think if you look at some of the campaign ads that have been run this year, the way I would describe kind of the prototypical GOP ad in 2018 is there's a brown criminal somewhere. We're going to flash a bunch of scary words up on the screen, like even like kill, rape, control. We saw that in the Virginia governor's race last year. MS-13 is a menace. Yet Ralph Northam voted in favor of sanctuary cities that let dangerous illegal immigrants back on the street, increasing the threat of MS-13. I'm Ed Gillespie, candidate for governor, and I sponsored this ad for a safer, stronger Virginia. They're going to use the word dangerous. Donald Trump just wrote an op-ed in USA Today about how

dangerous the Democrats are. Scott Walker in Wisconsin actually told voters, I thought this was kind of remarkable, he told voters in a very low crime state, he was like, none of our disagreements about health care or education matter if you're not safe. As superintendent, Tony Ebers failed to remove abusive teachers from our schools. Now Ebers wants to cut Wisconsin's prison population in half, a dangerous plan that today would mean releasing thousands of violent criminals back into our communities, which could include felons who've committed rape, assault, robbery, and even kidnapping.

Obviously implying that like if the Democrats get elected, your life might literally be in danger. Yeah. You know, it's not just the hardcore culture warriors. You see people like Barbara Comstock in the Virginia 10th, who is sort of as centrist, moderate, suburban Republican. She has talked about MS-13 infiltrating her community and killing her constituents. The criminal gang MS-13 has spread.

Its headquarters for the East Coast are right here in Virginia, where in just the last year alone, the gang-related murder rate is up 166 percent. More than anything else, that seems to be the unifying theme of the Republican campaigns in 2018. Virginia to, you know, Texas, where Ted Cruz, who's trying to kind of fight off the prototypical energized Democrat in Beto O'Rourke, you know, he started campaigning with Vietnam veterans who are talking about like the national anthem and NFL players kneeling to protest police violence. Tim Lee, a Texan, served in Vietnam. On March 8th, 1971, he stepped on a landmine. I gave two legs to this country. I'm not able to stand, but I sure expect you to stand for me when that national anthem is being played. That's been an issue that, as much as anything, has invigorated the right,

because they point to these mostly black athletes on an issue that tends to be as racially divisive as police violence. And they're using that to gin up their voters, which I think, again, speaks to like that's an identity-based argument that if you're sort of a white Republican voter, you're obviously going to side with the police and with the patriots over somebody who's protesting. Which is to say the Republicans over the Democrats. Exactly. And vilifying the Democrats isn't just limited to the midterms. Kavanaugh also vilified the

Democrats when he had to testify after Christine Blasey Ford, right? Since my nomination in July, there's been a frenzy on the left to come up with something, anything to block my confirmation. I think that's what's been interesting over the last couple of weeks. You know, a lot of this was in the earlier parts of the year. And again, if people go back and look at the Virginia governor's race, I think that kind of set the template for how Republicans were going to run in 2018. But what's been interesting, that was obviously that was very race based. A lot of it was immigration. That's sort of where you saw these fears being stoked. But after Kavanaugh,

Republicans seem to have pivoted to this much more general and kind of frightening message that Democrats are just dangerous, that they're radical, that they're out of control. And I think the Kavanaugh drama gave them a lot of grist for that argument because they could say, like, look at these Democrats who went out of their way to destroy the reputation of this good family man. That has definitely tapped into a lot of the sentiments that Republicans were relying on anyway. But now they've really just sort of reduced the message down to just Democrats are dangerous. And so Republicans need to rally together or else the country's safety is at stake. The radical Democrats have turned into an angry mob. They have encouraged mob rule.

The virtual mob that's assaulted all of us has turned our base on fire. I mean, we've been under assault. But this this idea that that you're not safe with the Democrats, it isn't new, right? I mean, this goes back to to Nixon, to Reagan. It goes back to George H.W. Bush and his Willie Horton ad. Bush and Dukakis on crime. Bush supports the death penalty for first-degree murderers. Dukakis not only opposes the death penalty, he allowed first-degree murderers

to have weekend passes from prison. One was Willie Horton, who murdered a boy in a robbery, stabbing him 19 times. Despite a life sentence, Horton received 10 weekend passes from prison. Horton fled, kidnapped a young couple, stabbing the man and repeatedly raping his girlfriend.

Weekend prison passes. Dukakis on crime. That's been around forever. And yeah, think back to, I think what's different now is that it used to be hidden a little bit. It's sort of like, we at least went through the motions of pretending that these were not sort of explicitly race based issues. And I think what Trump has done is just taken that facade away entirely. If you think back to, you know, his his convention speech in 2016 and his inauguration speech the next year when he talked about American carnage. And the crime and the gangs and the drugs that have stolen too many lives and robbed our country

of so much unrealized potential. This American carnage stops right here and stops right now. When he portrayed kind of America as this collection of crime-ridden cities, any sort of pretenses about, you know, higher aspirations or this is really about core American values, no. This is just about if you don't vote for us, then the scary people are coming to get you. And rumor has it George W. Bush, who was sitting right there when Trump was inaugurated and heard this American carnage monologue, reacted by going, that was some weird shit. Right. And then you think back to George W. Bush's tenure as president, and he was making a play for Latino voters. Right. How is this going to work as a long-term strategy for the Republicans to appeal to older white voters while the country is becoming browner?

Republicans are making, I think, a short-term bet, right? Like the most immediate thing that they can worry about is right now we have full control of the federal government and we need to hold on to it now while we can. There's a whole infrastructure that helps Republicans control more of the government than their actual support out in the public would suggest they should. I'm sure your listeners have heard about gerrymandering. And obviously, there's the question of the Senate, which gives smaller states, which tend to be wider and more rule, more control. So between gerrymandering in the House, between the fact that the Senate gives more power to smaller rule, wider states, between the Electoral College, which, you know, Trump lost the popular vote, but he won the Electoral College.

Don't tell him. It's become a fact of life for Republicans that they can maintain power even if they don't have a majority support out in the American, the broader American public. But the way that you actually, you can rig the game, but the way that you actually win is you get your voters to come out, right? And their voters have become increasingly comfortable with this very explicitly racial language and portraying these issues in these sort of stark terms

that Trump does in a way that would have been considered passe under George W. Bush. Is there any data that backs up that this strategy could actually work for the Republicans? I think the open question is whether this strategy can work for any Republicans who are not Donald Trump. Huh. Trump has harnessed this very specific thing and this kind of white resentment and that energy, for lack of a better word.

But, you know, there seems to be something kind of very unique to him. And voters identify him personally with a lot of those ideas and sentiments. And I think the big question for November will be whether other Republicans can successfully replicate what Trump did. You know, Trump was a perfect stand in for a lot of, you know, white fears and white resentment that had percolated in the Obama years. And conversely, Obama was sort of the ideal, aspirational, young, diverse candidate. And Democrats are trying to replicate that in a lot of places. And I think we don't know right now whether that's going to be sort of as nearly as successful as Obama was in his presidency. You know what that was, Dylan?

What? A great transition to our conversation about Democrat strategy in the midterms. Yes. That's next on Today Explained. Hello? Hey, is this Darren from Seattle, Washington? This is Darren from Seattle, Washington. This is Sean from Washington, D.C.

Yeah, yeah, it's Sean calling from Today Explained. I hear you listen to the show out there in Seattle, and you've had an interesting experience with Quip electric toothbrushes. Is that true? It is true. I mean, I've definitely received a few brush heads that were not mine that I was jealous about because I have a... Whoa, whoa, whoa, we don't say that word here. So you're saying you have a different toothbrush that doesn't have a built-in timer, that doesn't have nice, gentle sonic vibrations, that doesn't have free refills when you go to getquip.com slash explain, but you are getting someone else's free Quip refill brushes.

This is correct, and it's upsetting. Who are they for? They were for the previous tenant, unfortunately. Who is this tenant? Do you know this person? Her name is Mariah, I think. Is it Mariah Carey? No, it's not Mariah Carey. I really wish that was the case, but it's not. Well, Darren in Seattle, Washington, why don't we try and find Mariah and get her her quip

refills this week? Wouldn't that be like a good mitzvah? Okay, let's do it. Sup with the Democrats. Well, I mean, first things first, people are already talking about 2018 as the year of the woman. Electing women and improving representation in politics has been an important thing for Democratic primary voters in 2018. And so the best piece of evidence I have for how successful identity politics has been for Democrats this year is the record number of women running it. And we saw women beat pretty solid liberal progressive candidates

and incumbents in Massachusetts, and they've beat old white male centrist incumbents in Nebraska. There's been a lot of discussion about the establishment versus the left, but I think that more than anything, what's carried across races at all levels and all states has been the Democratic desire to get new fresh faces. And usually that means more diverse, younger women in office this year. And while Republican campaign ads, at least, are painting brown people as a threat, as a danger,

are Democrats trying to pick up some of those brown votes, maybe? Yeah, I mean, I think Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, she really blazed this trail. Women like me aren't supposed to run for office. I wasn't born to a wealthy or powerful family. Mother from Puerto Rico, dad from the South Bronx. I was born in a place where your zip code determines your destiny. And the race I maybe found most telling this year was in Massachusetts, where a black woman named Yana Presley was running against a Democratic congressman.

And we begin tonight with an historic upset in the race for Congress. Boston City Councilor Ayanna Pressley defeating longtime incumbent Michael Capuano in the 7th Congressional District. And the congressman was a solid liberal. He'd been representing the district for a long time. This was not a case where Ms. Pressley was running to his left. If anything, he was probably the more progressive candidate. She was a younger black woman running against an older white guy. And if she were as expected elected to Congress this year, she would be the first black woman

elected in Massachusetts of all places. So I think that kind of shows you that this can pop up anywhere, this kind of thirst for fresh faces. And like, it's not necessarily a matter of ideology. Sometimes just being the younger, more diverse candidate is all the primary voters were looking for. To our immigrants worried about the knock on the door, change can't wait. To women whose rights are perpetually under attack, change can't wait. To the residents of the seventh congressional district, change can't wait. So getting back to this idea of this race being so centered around identity politics, Democrats are literally saying in several cases, look at who I am, while there are a lot of Republicans saying like, look at who they are.

Yeah, but I mean, to be clear, Democrats are not immune from their own hyperbole. Dear Jim Jordan, you are so smart. You knew how it would happen. Jim Jordan, who is maybe one of the most conservative Republicans in the House, his Democratic opponent has released a campaign ad that's basically based off the Handmaid's Tale.

Your beliefs about women were crystal clear. Violence against women? Acceptable. Equal pay? Unnecessary. Birth control and choice? Eliminated. That's kind of become a favorite Democratic line in the Trump era that we're just a couple

steps away from living in a religious autocracy. And we let you do it, didn't we, Commander Jordan? And the handmaidens were out there protesting Kavanaugh, too. Right, yeah, yeah, and protesters have utilized the imagery from that story, yeah, to protest the way the Trump administration and Republicans' policies would affect women. a Christian dictatorship where women are subservient to men is at least approaching some hyperbole that's probably comparable to the way that Republicans sometimes talk about other groups. How is the Democratic Party handling these challenges from the far left? Ocasio-Cortez is a

self, she identifies as a democratic socialist, right? Is the party becoming more comfortable with the idea of socialism? I think the Democrats are embracing this idea that they are a big tent that can accept and accommodate a lot of different ideas. I know from some of my own reporting, when I talk to democratic voters, they're interested in things like Medicare for all. They're interested in ideas like abolishing ICE, cracking down on corporations, you know, a much more progressive economic platform. Like they're at least intrigued by those ideas and even sort of run of the mill Democratic voters in suburban Ohio that I talked to said, you know, like I could see why Medicare for all might be a good idea or why about getting rid of ice might make sense given the crisis we've seen at the border under Trump. But more than anything, they just want to beat Republicans. And they want to reclaim at least

some modicum of power, because I think Democratic voters especially, and I'm sure politicians, feel so powerless in the age of Trump. So I think there's been sort of a collective, maybe unspoken agreement among Democrats that we're not going to talk about the things we disagree on. We don't have to figure out what Medicare for all actually means right now. What we know is that 60% of Americans like those three words when they hear them. And so let's just run on that. I wonder, you know, you talk about the Republicans playing really hard to identity politics, playing really hard to white men, older white voters, presenting brown people as a real threat. Then you talk about Democrats

really embracing women, embracing brown people, embracing ideas like Medicare for All or abolishing ICE even. Are other moderate voters getting lost in these sort of extremes? That's a great question. And I think, you know, Are other moderate voters getting lost in a lot of polls. Because he voted for Kavanaugh or what?

And that was even before Kavanaugh. I think voting for Kavanaugh probably only solidified his position. And so like, clearly, there are places out in the country that can appreciate a centrist, moderate Democrat. And on the other hand, you know, one race I've been watching particularly closely is the Nebraska second. So in that race, a progressive woman named Cara Eastman beat a former Democratic congressman named Brad Ashford in the primary there. If we want to change the system, and a lot of us are pretty frustrated with the system right now, we need to elect somebody who is running to change the system. Right now, I feel a sense of desperation for our country and in particular for our children. So I would be honored to earn your vote and to be the first woman elected to serve this Nebraska second in Congress. And Ashford, you know, you could see where national Democrats would have thought we need a more centrist, inoffensive white guy to

run in this district. But Eastman won the primary very narrowly. And so that kind of became this question of can a relatively unknown woman who supports things like Medicare for all win in a district and in a place like Omaha, Nebraska. But the polling that we've seen thus far has suggested that the Republicans actually have a pretty good shot of holding onto that seat. And so that raises some questions of like, the Democrats do themselves a disservice by nominating the young progressive woman, because candidly, there are still some parts of the country where that might be a disadvantage for you. One thing that seems clear here, whether or not voters are ready for truly progressive candidates or running towards Republicans, people are paying attention to these

midterms, right? Might that have implications for future midterm elections? I'd like to believe we could get to a place where both the press and the public and all of us appreciate that midterm elections and who controls the House and who controls the Senate is just as important as who's in the White House. The challenge with the midterms is you have to get people actually invested in politics just sort of in and of itself or unto itself. It's not just about like, I love Donald Trump or I hate Hillary Clinton or vice versa. If there's any sort of ancillary benefit to how divisive the Trump era has been. If it gets people interested in politics as such, that's probably better for our democracy in the long run. But this November will be kind of the

first test about whether anything is actually changing or if this is a lot of sound and fury signifying nothing. Dylan Scott covers politics and policy at Vox. I'm Sean Ramos from This Is Today Explained. Another shout out to Quip Electric Toothbrushes for supporting the show today. Quip is backed by over 20,000 dental professionals. I don't even know 20,000 dental professionals. You can get your Quip Electric Toothbrush and some free refills at getquip.com. Dylan Matthews, you right here at Vox. You are not Dylan Scott. I'm a separate Dylan. And you are the Dylan who's launching a whole new thing today.

I am. Today is the launch of Future Perfect, which is a whole new section of Vox.com about the world's biggest problems and ways to solve them. And we're also doing a podcast. Give us an example of what kinds of things we're going to hear on the podcast, Dylan. Sure. So the first episode is all about kidney donation. And kidney disease is this huge, huge problem that people don't talk about a lot. About 100,000 people at any given time are on the transplant list for a kidney. They can't get one. There aren't enough, frankly, corpses or people donating for everyone to get a transplant. And so one thing you can do is donate to a stranger. And plot twist, this is something that you actually did.

This is something I did in August 2016. I donated a kidney to a stranger, and he set up a chain so that three other people got kidneys also. We walk through that and talk about how sort of one decision and one person stepping up can help create this ripple effect that helps a bunch more people. You're very brave. I admire it. I look forward to hearing about it on Future Perfect, the podcast that you can find wherever you find your podcasts. Thanks, Sean.